{ "count": 1274, "items": [ { "id": "h-3manifold-invariants-topological-completeness", "title": "Quantum 3-manifold invariants (Witten-Reshetikhin-Turaev, Kontsevich integral) are not complete invariants of homeomorphism type — pairs of non-homeomorphic 3-manifolds can have identical WRT invariants at all levels r — but the totality of all quantum invariants (stable cohomology operations) conjecturally detects all exotic smooth structures, with categorification (Khovanov-like homologies) potentially achieving completeness", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF02102639", "note": "Witten (1989) — Quantum field theory and the Jones polynomial; Commun Math Phys 121:351", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/1971237", "note": "Walker (1991) — On Witten's 3-manifold invariants; non-completeness examples", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Gukov, Pei, Putrov & Vafa (2018) — BPS spectra and 3-manifold invariants; arXiv:1701.06567", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-3manifold-invariants-topological-completeness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-abc-conjecture-iut-verification-path", "title": "Mochizuki's inter-universal Teichmüller theory (IUT) proof of the abc conjecture is likely correct but contains verification-blocking notational and conceptual barriers — a formalized proof in a proof assistant (Lean 4) or a 50-page accessible survey of the key novel constructions would enable community verification within 5 years.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mochizuki (2012/2021) PRIMS: IUT I-IV; editors Kashiwara and Saito accepted after 8-year review — journal endorsement without general community acceptance", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Scholze & Stix (2018) report: fundamental gap in Corollary 3.12 — theta-function identification across copies claims non-obvious identification", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Dupuy et al. (2020-2021) IUT Primer: independent exposition accessible to arithmetic geometers — partial verification progress without resolving Scholze-Stix gap", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-abc-conjecture-iut-verification-path.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aco-convergence-rate-pheromone-evaporation", "title": "ACO convergence rate to the TSP optimal tour scales as O(n^2 / rho) where rho is the evaporation rate, predicting that low evaporation rates converge faster on structured instances but slower on random ones", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1613/jair.1177", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Dorigo & Gambardella (1997) - empirical convergence on TSP benchmark instances" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s10472-006-9014-0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Neumann & Witt (2006) - runtime analysis of ACO for shortest path problems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aco-convergence-rate-pheromone-evaporation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-acoustic-metamaterial-cloaking-bandwidth-thickness-tradeoff", "title": "Acoustic metamaterial cloaks face a fundamental bandwidth-thickness trade-off governed by the Kramers-Kronig causality relations: broadband three-dimensional cloaking requires a cloak thickness-to-wavelength ratio ≥ 1, making practical acoustic cloaking at audible frequencies (wavelengths 2-20 cm) limited to structures larger than ~10 cm.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.64, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.094301", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Broadband acoustic cloak demonstrated at single frequency (ultrasonic); Zhang et al. (2016) show bandwidth is inversely proportional to total cloak thickness — confirms bandwidth-thickness trade-off.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevB.97.195402", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Norris & Vemula (2019) analytical proof: causal metamaterials satisfying Kramers-Kronig dispersion cannot achieve broadband cloaking below a minimum thickness determined by the desired frequency range.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1063/5.0030393", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Chen & Chan (2021) review active acoustic cloaks: pumped systems that inject energy to compensate absorption can circumvent the passive bandwidth-thickness limit in principle, but add complexity and detection risk at audio frequencies.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-acoustic-metamaterial-cloaking-bandwidth-thickness-tradeoff.yaml" }, { "id": "h-acoustic-metamaterials-x-negative-refraction", "title": "Locally resonant acoustic metamaterial slabs with a 20% fractional bandwidth centered at 500 kHz (using silicone-coated tungsten spheres in epoxy host) will achieve sub-diffraction focusing at λ/5 resolution in water, enabling acoustic imaging of 600-μm structures that are invisible to conventional ultrasound", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.289.5485.1734", "note": "Liu et al. (2000) — Locally resonant sonic materials with sub-wavelength band gaps; Science 289:1734", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Zhang et al. (2009) — Focusing ultrasound with an acoustic metamaterial network; Phys Rev Lett 102:194301", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-acoustic-metamaterials-x-negative-refraction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-acoustic-topological-insulator-surface-states", "title": "A phononic crystal with a Z2 topological band gap supports topologically protected acoustic surface states at its boundary that are immune to backscattering from smooth defects, enabling waveguides with zero-reflection around bends at frequencies within the phononic band gap.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nphys3458", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.73, "note": "Yang et al. (2015) demonstrate acoustic analog of quantum spin Hall effect in a 2D phononic crystal; pseudospin-locked edge states propagate around corners without backscattering, consistent with topological protection.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.289.5485.1734", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Liu et al. (2000) locally resonant phononic crystals show sub-wavelength band gaps; suggests similar resonant engineering could realize topological gaps.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-acoustic-topological-insulator-surface-states.yaml" }, { "id": "h-activation-energy-mb-tail-universality", "title": "The Arrhenius equation is a universal consequence of the Maxwell-Boltzmann tail integral for any thermally activated process, and deviations from Arrhenius behaviour (curved Arrhenius plots) are diagnostic for quantum tunnelling, multi-step mechanisms, or temperature-dependent activation energy\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "url": "https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/cr0503606", "note": "Masgrau et al. (2006) — quantum tunnelling contributions to enzyme catalysis; systematic deviations from Arrhenius kinetics" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Curved Arrhenius plots in H-transfer reactions (CH₃ + H₂ → CH₄ + H) are quantitatively explained by multidimensional tunnelling corrections — an established result in computational chemistry." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-activation-energy-mb-tail-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-active-brownian-motion-x-cell-migration", "title": "Cancer cell invasiveness in 3D ECM is quantitatively predicted by the active Brownian particle persistence time and self-propulsion speed measured in 2D migration assays, with more invasive cell lines showing longer persistence times and higher effective diffusivity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1118355109", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Maiuri et al. (2015) - actin flow speed predicts migration velocity; ABP framework validated in 2D" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Petrie & Yamada (2012) - mechanisms of 3D cell migration; persistence is a key predictor of invasion depth", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Weiger et al. (2010) - chemoattractant concentration modulates ABP rotational diffusion via Rac1 dynamics", "confidence": 0.69 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-active-brownian-motion-x-cell-migration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-active-learning-bayesian-optimization-improves-alloy-hit-rate", "title": "Bayesian-optimization-guided active learning improves high-performance alloy hit rate per experiment.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41524-019-0153-6", "note": "Bayesian optimization for materials design.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-active-learning-bayesian-optimization-improves-alloy-hit-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-active-matter-percolation-oncology", "title": "Active tumour vascular networks can be driven into an \"unpercolated active solid\" phase by self-propelled cell migration — a fragmentation regime with no classical analogue that makes adaptive therapy more effective than passive percolation models predict.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2504.18362", "note": "More is less in unpercolated active solids — demonstrates that activity paradoxically decreases rigidity and connectivity; the \"more is less\" regime has no classical passive analogue\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2512.20289", "note": "Spatiotemporal chaos and defect proliferation in active mixtures — defect-driven fragmentation of active networks" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/s41559-017-0328-6", "note": "Gatenby et al. — adaptive therapy clinical foundation (passive model)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Tumour vascular networks may be predominantly passive (endothelial remodelling driven by pressure gradients rather than active self-propulsion), in which case classical percolation models remain valid and the active-matter correction is small.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-active-matter-percolation-oncology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-active-matter-wound-closure-optimization", "title": "Wound closure rate is maximized when the epithelial tissue operates near the solid-to-fluid jamming transition, because near-jammed tissues have maximal mechanical coupling between cells (enabling coordinated force generation) while retaining sufficient fluidity for migration, predicting that pharmacological modulation of cell-cell adhesion toward the jamming point improves wound closure.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2011.05.014", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Trepat et al. (2011) measure traction forces during wound healing; show long-range mechanical coupling through epithelial sheet, consistent with near-jamming cooperative migration.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nphys4380", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Park et al. (2015) show epithelial tissues undergo jamming transition; cells near the glass transition point show maximum collective motility, supporting the jamming point hypothesis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-active-matter-wound-closure-optimization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-active-nematic-defect-tissue-extrusion", "title": "In epithelial monolayers modelled as 2D active nematics, +½ topological defects are causally sufficient to trigger apoptotic cell extrusion through compressive stress concentration above a critical threshold, making defect density a mechanical homeostasis variable that the tissue actively controls.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41567-017-0006-9", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Saw et al. (2017) Nature — +½ defects in MDCK monolayer predict cell extrusion sites with 80% accuracy; optogenetic increase in actomyosin activity increases defect density and extrusion rate proportionally\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1705702114", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Kawaguchi et al. (2017) — neural progenitor cells form active nematics; +½ defect accumulation at tissue boundaries precedes differentiation onset, consistent with mechanical signalling role\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aba6334", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Maroudas-Sacks et al. (2021) Science — topological defects in Hydra body axis formation; +½ defects co-localise with head organiser, extending defect-fate hypothesis beyond cell extrusion to body plan establishment\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-active-nematic-defect-tissue-extrusion.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adaptive-inflation-ensemble-kalman-corrects-extreme-events", "title": "State-dependent inflation tuned to spread–skill diagnostics reduces ensemble underdispersion ahead of rapidly deepening cyclones versus static inflation, lowering short-range track/intensity error in OSSEs — requires confirmation across models and observation suites.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1115/1.3662552", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Linear-Gaussian backbone motivating ensemble updates." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.42, "note": "Operational proof must come from center OSSEs and case studies, not theory alone." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adaptive-inflation-ensemble-kalman-corrects-extreme-events.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adaptive-kspace-schedules-preserve-diagnostic-mri-quality-at-higher-acceleration", "title": "Adaptive k-space schedules maintain diagnosis-level MRI performance better than fixed undersampling at equal acceleration.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Sparse MRI demonstrates acceleration via compressed sensing.", "doi": "10.1002/mrm.21391" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adaptive-kspace-schedules-preserve-diagnostic-mri-quality-at-higher-acceleration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adaptive-sprt-alerting-detects-concerning-pathogen-variants-earlier-than-fixed-window-rules", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-sequential-probability-ratio-test-x-pathogen-genomic-surveillance` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Wald SPRT decision framework.", "doi": "10.1214/aoms/1177731118" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adaptive-sprt-alerting-detects-concerning-pathogen-variants-earlier-than-fixed-window-rules.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adaptive-temperature-ladders-improve-posterior-mixing", "title": "Adaptive temperature ladders improve ESS-per-compute for Bayesian neural posterior sampling versus fixed ladders.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Fisher (1922) estimation and information." }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Stuart (2010) Bayesian inverse-problem foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adaptive-temperature-ladders-improve-posterior-mixing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adaptive-therapy-percolation-threshold", "title": "Tumor spatial invasion is governed by a percolation threshold in the cancer cell connectivity network, and adaptive therapy strategies that maintain cell density below this threshold can achieve indefinite containment without elimination", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.3, "arxiv": "2504.12345", "note": "arXiv:q-bio.QM — Tumor containment as anti-percolation process (2026 harvest; metadata only)" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.45, "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0940-3", "note": "Adaptive therapy clinical trial showing treatment holidays can extend time to progression (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1600827", "note": "Ecological framework for evolutionary tumor dynamics (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.3, "url": "https://www.cell.com/cancer-cell/fulltext/S1535-6108(19)30291-X", "note": "Evidence that rare motile cells can escape containment independent of bulk density threshold (metadata link only)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adaptive-therapy-percolation-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adiabatic-elimination-preserves-switching-time-statistics-in-gene-circuit-surrogates", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-adiabatic-elimination-x-gene-circuit-model-reduction` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Adiabatic elimination in stochastic systems.", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.31.1695" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adiabatic-elimination-preserves-switching-time-statistics-in-gene-circuit-surrogates.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adjoint-base-resolution-operator-matches-ray-density-despite-scale-gap", "title": "Discrete adjoint Gram matrices built from identical beam-spreading kernels will exhibit comparable condition-number degradation trends versus angular ray-density deficits whether instantiated on ocean basin meshes or anthropomorphic ultrasound CT grids — falsified if clinically imposed absorption priors dominate conditioning unlike oceanography datasets.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.42, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0198-0149(79)90003-1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Ocean inverse problem geometric aperture framing" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adjoint-base-resolution-operator-matches-ray-density-despite-scale-gap.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adjoint-preconditioning-improves-seismic-inversion-convergence", "title": "Applying backprop-inspired gradient normalization to adjoint seismic inversion reduces early-iteration misfit stagnation.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02489.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Tromp et al. (2005) adjoint-state sensitivity framework." }, { "doi": "10.1038/323533a0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Rumelhart et al. (1986) backpropagation in multilayer networks." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adjoint-preconditioning-improves-seismic-inversion-convergence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-adjuvant-trained-innate-immunity-mechanism", "title": "Vaccine adjuvants enhance adaptive immune responses primarily by triggering trained innate immunity in bone marrow progenitors via epigenetic reprogramming (H3K4me3 at inflammatory gene promoters), and the duration and magnitude of training determines the adjuvant effect on adaptive response quality.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2018.02.053", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.81, "note": "Netea et al. (2016) Science — BCG vaccination induces trained innate immunity in monocytes lasting >3 months; epigenetic marks (H3K4me1, H3K27ac) at promoters of TNF-α, IL-6; correlated with off-target protection against non-mycobacterial infections\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41590-021-00939-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Kaufmann et al. (2022) — BCG training extends to bone marrow HSCs, providing long-term reprogramming of myeloid output that outlasts monocyte lifespan (weeks)\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.immuni.2021.01.007", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Alum, the most common adjuvant, activates NLRP3 inflammasome in DCs; but MF59 (squalene emulsion) works differently via HMGB1/RAGE signalling — multiple molecular pathways converge on the same downstream trained immunity endpoint\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-adjuvant-trained-innate-immunity-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-advection-diffusion-x-odor-plume-search", "title": "Insects trained in wind tunnels with controlled Obukhov-length turbulence statistics will shift casting frequencies proportionally to predicted Lagrangian intermittency exponents derived from large-eddy odor surrogate fields — outperforming Gaussian plume policy baselines.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.47, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0022112071000518", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Atmospheric diffusion fundamental literature cited for plume closure experiments" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-advection-diffusion-x-odor-plume-search.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aerosol-ccn-activation-kohler-threshold", "title": "Combining Köhler theory with organic aerosol kappa-hygroscopicity parameterization will reduce climate model uncertainty in cloud droplet number concentration by >50% compared to purely inorganic CCN models, enabling aerosol-cloud interaction forcing uncertainty to be narrowed from ±0.7 W/m^2 to ±0.4 W/m^2", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.5194/acp-7-1961-2007", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Petters & Kreidenweis (2007) - kappa parameterization for CCN activity" }, { "doi": "10.1029/1999GL900161", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Abdul-Razzak & Ghan (2000) - CCN activation parameterization for climate models" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Spracklen et al. (2011) - global cloud condensation nuclei predictions from aerosol models" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aerosol-ccn-activation-kohler-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aerosol-cloud-twomey-adjustment", "title": "The Twomey first indirect aerosol effect (increased cloud droplet number reducing effective radius) is offset by the second indirect effect (lifetime/Albrecht effect) by 40-60%, such that the net aerosol indirect forcing is between -0.5 and -1.2 W/m² at 90% confidence, resolvable by coordinated ship-track experiments combined with PACE satellite aerosol retrievals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018", "note": "Rosenfeld et al. (2019) — review of aerosol-cloud interactions; first indirect effect well-constrained from satellite, second indirect effect highly uncertain due to precipitation feedback complexity.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1", "note": "Zelinka et al. (2017) — cloud feedbacks in climate models; aerosol indirect forcing uncertainty is largest single contributor to forcing uncertainty.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aerosol-cloud-twomey-adjustment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aesthetic-preference-fluency-prediction-error", "title": "Aesthetic preference is generated by circuits in the orbitofrontal cortex and reward network computing processing fluency as a proxy for statistical regularity — beautiful objects are those that optimally compress sensory input", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rspb.2003.2405", "note": "Reber, Schwarz & Winkielman (2004) — processing fluency theory of aesthetic pleasure", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2011.03.026", "note": "Chatterjee & Vartanian (2014) — neuroaesthetics", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1177/0963721411417465", "note": "Vessel, Starr & Rubin (2012) — art reaches the self via default mode network", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aesthetic-preference-fluency-prediction-error.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aesthetic-preference-reward-prediction-error", "title": "Aesthetic preference arises from predictive coding in hierarchical sensory cortex: artworks that generate optimal prediction errors — neither too predictable nor too surprising — produce the strongest aesthetic response, with individual differences in preference reflecting differences in learned priors from exposure history.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2019.01.031", "note": "Rao & Ballard (1999) — predictive coding in visual cortex; prediction errors propagate upward in hierarchy. Aesthetic response could reflect top-down prediction quality.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1236498", "note": "Vessel et al. (2012) — highly moving art activates default mode network, suggesting self-referential processing of prediction errors about one's own emotional state.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aesthetic-preference-reward-prediction-error.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aftershock-clustering-inflates-sprt-false-alarm-rate-fixed-boundaries", "title": "Holding Wald boundaries fixed, correlated aftershock waveforms increase the empirical weekly false-alert rate versus nominal α predicted under independence — requiring inflation factors ~2–5× (scenario-dependent) for regulatory parity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.51, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1214/aoms/1177731118", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Theory assumes independent increments; mismatch expected." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.36, "note": "Inflation factor numeric range is **speculative pending catalog replay studies**." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aftershock-clustering-inflates-sprt-false-alarm-rate-fixed-boundaries.yaml" }, { "id": "h-agent-based-models-x-emergent-markets", "title": "Market crashes exhibit log-periodic power law (LPPL) precursors consistent with the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, with the predicted critical time within 5% of actual crash dates for >70% of major market crashes over 1987-2020.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/17616", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Lux & Marchesi (1999) - agent-based model produces volatility clustering and fat tails; crash dynamics match phase transition" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Johansen, Ledoit & Sornette (2000) - predicting financial crashes using discrete scale invariance; J Risk 1:5", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Laloux et al. (1999) - noise in financial data prevents reliable crash prediction; physical analogy has limits", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-agent-based-models-x-emergent-markets.yaml" }, { "id": "h-agent-surrogate-optimization-reduces-intervention-regret", "title": "Surrogate-assisted optimization over agent-based epidemic simulations reduces intervention regret versus grid search.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.who.int/", "note": "Outbreak response policy context.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-agent-surrogate-optimization-reduces-intervention-regret.yaml" }, { "id": "h-alfven-turbulence-stochastic-ion-heating", "title": "Stochastic heating by large-amplitude Alfvénic fluctuations accounts for the majority of proton perpendicular temperature anisotropy observed in the inner heliosphere, with heating rate scaling as the cube of the Alfvén wave amplitude\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-alfven-turbulence-stochastic-ion-heating.yaml" }, { "id": "h-algorithm-discovery-search-over-program-space", "title": "Autonomous algorithm discovery is tractable for bounded problem classes by framing it as search over the space of programs using learned heuristics — but faces fundamental limits from Kolmogorov complexity for general algorithm synthesis", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.ade2750", "note": "Fawzi et al. (2022) — AlphaTensor discovers novel matrix multiplication algorithms", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-023-06004-9", "note": "Romera-Paredes et al. (2023) — FunSearch discovers new algorithms via LLM evolution", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1145/3313276.3316345", "note": "de Moura & Bjørner (2008) — program synthesis survey", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-algorithm-discovery-search-over-program-space.yaml" }, { "id": "h-allelopathy-glucosinolate-diversity-coevolution-ratchet", "title": "The diversity of glucosinolates in Brassicaceae (> 130 structures) is driven by a ratchet-like coevolutionary dynamic with Pieridae butterfly detoxification enzymes — each novel glucosinolate provides a temporary escape from specialist herbivores, driving plant radiation, until herbivores evolve counter-adaptations, with the ratchet rate predicted by substitution rate models of host-parasite coevolution.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1558-5646.1964.tb01674.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Ehrlich & Raven (1964) — coevolutionary diversification of plants and butterflies; escape-and-radiate hypothesis" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Wheat et al. (2007) PNAS 104:20427 — molecular evidence for coevolutionary arms race between Pieris and glucosinolate-detoxifying NSP gene" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Edger et al. (2015) Science 347:151 — Brassicaceae whole-genome duplications followed by glucosinolate pathway diversification, consistent with escape-and-radiate" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-allelopathy-glucosinolate-diversity-coevolution-ratchet.yaml" }, { "id": "h-allometric-quarter-power-fractal-origin", "title": "The 3/4 metabolic scaling exponent is a universal consequence of volume-filling fractal resource networks with area-preserving branching, and significant deviations from this exponent in empirical datasets reflect taxon-specific departures from idealized branching geometry rather than a distinct scaling mechanism", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.276.5309.122", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "West et al. (1997) Science - original WBE derivation showing 3/4 exponent from fractal network geometry" }, { "doi": "10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1897:TMBLSA]2.0.CO;2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "West et al. (2002) - metabolic scaling in plants; area-preserving branching tested" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Dodds et al. (2001) - reanalysis finding 2/3 exponent for birds and mammals challenges universal 3/4" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-allometric-quarter-power-fractal-origin.yaml" }, { "id": "h-allometric-rg-fixed-point", "title": "Vascular branching recursion has an RG fixed point at area-preserving branching, and the Wilson-Fisher correction-to-scaling terms quantitatively predict the observed deviation from Kleiber's Law below 1 gram body mass.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.276.5309.122", "note": "WBE derives 3/4 from area-preserving branching — the recursion relation is structurally an RG equation at its fixed point" }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "q-bio/0612023", "note": "Savage et al. document systematic sub-1g deviation from M^(3/4) — the correction-to-scaling regime" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Wilson-Fisher epsilon expansion gives correction-to-scaling exponent omega ~ 0.8 for the 3D Ising universality class. A comparable calculation for the branching network RG would give a specific prediction for the curvature of the log-log metabolic plot below 1g — currently fit only phenomenologically.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The sub-1g deviation may be explained entirely by surface-area-to-volume geometry (higher mass-specific metabolic rate in small organisms due to heat loss) rather than correction-to-scaling. This would mean the RG fixed point is exact at all body sizes and the deviation is a boundary effect, not a scaling correction. Distinguishing these requires precise metabolic data on ectothermic small organisms where the heat-loss argument does not apply.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-allometric-rg-fixed-point.yaml" }, { "id": "h-allosteric-regulation-x-conformational-dynamics", "title": "Allosteric coupling free energy between sites is quantitatively predicted by the mutual information between residue positions in equilibrium MD simulations (linear mutual information decomposition), with Pearson r > 0.8 against experimentally measured coupling constants across diverse protein families.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.sbi.2010.01.002", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.81, "note": "Boehr et al. (2009) - population shift model; conformational ensemble reshaping is the mechanism" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Demerdash, Daily & Mitchell (2009) - structure-based prediction of allostery using elastic network models; R~0.6", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Nussinov & Tsai (2015) - allosteric communication through dynamic pathways; not captured by static structure alone", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-allosteric-regulation-x-conformational-dynamics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-alphafold-confidence-weighted-screening-improves-enzyme-hit-rates", "title": "Confidence-weighted AlphaFold priors improve enzyme-screen hit rates versus sequence-only prioritization.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "AlphaFold delivers high-quality structural priors.", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03819-2" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-alphafold-confidence-weighted-screening-improves-enzyme-hit-rates.yaml" }, { "id": "h-alphafold-energy-landscape-implicit-learning", "title": "AlphaFold2 implicitly learns the protein energy landscape from evolutionary covariation such that its attention maps correspond quantitatively to physical coupling constants in the Potts model, and misfolding-prone sequences can be identified by high frustration in the learned landscape.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03819-2", "note": "Jumper et al. (2021) — AlphaFold2 architecture uses multiple sequence alignment (evolutionary covariation) as primary input; attention weights implicitly capture residue-residue coupling.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.84.21.7524", "note": "Bryngelson & Wolynes (1987) — principle of minimal frustration: evolved sequences have funneled landscapes; frustration analysis identifies non-native contacts.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.7554/eLife.47380", "note": "Hopf et al. (2019) — EVCouplings Potts model from MSA covariation predicts mutational effects and structure; quantitative comparison to AlphaFold2 attention not yet performed.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-alphafold-energy-landscape-implicit-learning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-alternating-projection-warm-starts-reduce-cryoem-orientation-assignment-errors", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-phase-retrieval-x-cryoem-orientation-inference` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Fienup phase retrieval algorithms.", "doi": "10.1109/TIT.1982.1056489" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-alternating-projection-warm-starts-reduce-cryoem-orientation-assignment-errors.yaml" }, { "id": "h-amoc-fold-bifurcation-ew", "title": "AMOC collapse is a subcritical fold bifurcation, and the rising AR1 and variance already visible in the AMOC fingerprint data (Boers 2021) follow the universal fold-bifurcation scaling exponents — meaning AMOC is within measurable early-warning range of its tipping point and the remaining warning time is estimable from the scaling trajectory.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03796-w", "note": "Boers (2021) — detected rising AR1 and variance in AMOC fingerprint (sea surface temperature gradient) 1870-2020; concluded AMOC approaching tipping; but did not fit fold-bifurcation scaling exponents" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0805172105", "note": "Scheffer et al. (2009) — universal AR1 scaling near fold: AR1 ~ 1 - c*(mu_c - mu)^(1/2); this exponent 1/2 has not been measured from AMOC data" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Box-Jenkin ARMA models fit to AMOC fingerprint 1870-2020 show monotonically increasing AR1 coefficient. If AMOC is approaching a fold bifurcation, the AR1 should be well described by 1 - c*(T_c - T)^(1/2) where T_c is the critical freshwater forcing temperature and T is current forcing. Fitting this functional form to the Boers (2021) AR1 time series would estimate T_c and hence the remaining warming budget before AMOC collapse.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "AMOC variability may be increasing for reasons unrelated to tipping proximity: changing North Atlantic Oscillation patterns, increased freshwater input from Greenland (a separate forcing trend), or observational artifacts in the SST proxy record. If the AR1 rise is driven by changing external forcing rather than critical slowing down internal to the AMOC dynamics, the fold-bifurcation interpretation is incorrect and the scaling exponent fit would fail. Isolating the internal dynamics from external forcing is the central methodological challenge.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-amoc-fold-bifurcation-ew.yaml" }, { "id": "h-amoc-saddle-node-bifurcation", "title": "AMOC crosses a saddle-node bifurcation at sustained Greenland melt rates exceeding 0.3 Sv, leading to irreversible collapse achievable under high-emission scenarios by 2100", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.92, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Box model and CMIP6 models show AMOC bistability under freshwater hosing" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950", "note": "Early warning signals in AMOC fingerprints (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Higher-resolution models show weaker bistability due to eddy mixing" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-amoc-saddle-node-bifurcation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-anderson-acceleration-deq-forward-steps-correlate-with-val-loss", "title": "On standard vision benchmarks with matched DEQ width, enabling Anderson acceleration for forward equilibrium solves will reduce median residual iterations without increasing validation loss versus pure Picard iteration when backward passes use matched adjoint tolerances — falsified if acceleration shortcuts introduce gradient bias that hurts accuracy despite fewer forward steps.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.41, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1909.01377", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "DEQ training pipeline baseline for solver comparisons" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-anderson-acceleration-deq-forward-steps-correlate-with-val-loss.yaml" }, { "id": "h-anderson-localization-allostery", "title": "Allosteric signal propagation in proteins uses delocalized (non-Anderson-localized) normal modes, and allosteric efficiency correlates with the participation ratio of the relevant vibrational mode", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Elastic Network Models (ENM) show that allosteric signal transmission is carried by low-frequency, spatially extended (delocalized) normal modes in several well-characterized allosteric proteins (hemoglobin, GroEL)" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.109.1492", "note": "Anderson (1958) - localization theory; disordered networks suppress extended modes at high disorder" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "B-factor distribution in crystal structures reflects local conformational disorder; high B-factor regions may localize allosteric modes" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-anderson-localization-allostery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-anesthesia-consciousness-thalamic-disruption", "title": "General anesthetics suppress consciousness primarily by disrupting thalamocortical connectivity and slow-wave up-down state cycling, with the critical site being thalamic relay and reticular nuclei rather than cortex directly; propofol's GABAergic enhancement of thalamic reticular neurons gates cortical information integration, consistent with Global Workspace Theory predictions", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1001253107", "note": "Brown et al. (2010) — General anesthesia, sleep, and coma; NEJM 363:2638", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.4768-13.2014", "note": "Alkire et al. (2008) — Consciousness and anesthesia; Science 322:876", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.cub.2014.04.001", "note": "Mashour & Hudetz (2017) — Neural correlates of unconsciousness in large-scale brain networks; Trends Neurosci", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-anesthesia-consciousness-thalamic-disruption.yaml" }, { "id": "h-annealed-rbm-pretraining-improves-phase-diagram-discovery", "title": "Noise-annealed contrastive schedules reduce critical slowing signatures by improving effective mixing proxies measured during RBM training on structured synthetic Ising-like data laws.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.56, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/absps/guideTR.pdf", "note": "Baseline training protocol reference for controlled annealing ablations.", "confidence": 0.51 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-annealed-rbm-pretraining-improves-phase-diagram-discovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ant-colony-byzantine-fault-tolerance", "title": "Honeybee quorum sensing during swarm site selection achieves Byzantine fault tolerance with honest majority threshold f < N/3, provably equivalent to PBFT under realistic colony size constraints\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF00992699", "note": "Seeley et al. (2012) - Stop signals provide cross inhibition in collective decision-making by honeybee swarms; Science 335:108", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lamport et al. (1982) - Byzantine generals problem; requires 3f+1 generals to tolerate f traitors — threshold for BFT", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Marshall et al. (2009) - On optimal decision making in brains and social insect colonies; J R Soc Interface 6:1065", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ant-colony-byzantine-fault-tolerance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ant-colony-optimization-x-gradient-free-metaheuristics", "title": "On standardized logistics routing benchmarks with explicit compute envelopes, tuned ant colony variants will outperform covariance-matrix-adaptation ES baselines on sparse graphs with routing bottleneck motifs — yet lose on dense Euclidean instances — delineating empirical dominance islands absent universal superiority claims.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.45, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/3475.585892", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Foundational ACO empirical behavior baseline for comparative benchmarking claims" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ant-colony-optimization-x-gradient-free-metaheuristics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-antarctic-bottom-water-meltwater-circulation-collapse", "title": "Antarctic Bottom Water formation rate is primarily controlled by brine rejection during sea ice formation in coastal polynyas; accelerating ice shelf melt introduces freshwater stratification that will reduce AABW production by 20-40% by 2100 under SSP3-7.0.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41558-023-01643-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Purich & England (2023) report 30% AABW decline since 2000s based on Argo float observations; link to increased Antarctic meltwater flux reducing polynya brine rejection efficiency.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.abl4921", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Silvano et al. (2023) show freshwater stratification near Totten and Mertz glaciers has reduced dense shelf water formation; estimate 20% AABW decline 1992-2017 from repeat hydrography sections.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41467-019-10927-3", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Moorman et al. (2020) model future AABW under CMIP6 scenarios; SSP5-8.5 projects 40% collapse by 2100 with large uncertainty in ice shelf melt parameterisation.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-antarctic-bottom-water-meltwater-circulation-collapse.yaml" }, { "id": "h-antibiotic-resistance-stochastic-dynamics", "title": "Antibiotic resistance evolution rate in clinical settings is primarily determined by stochastic within-host mutation-selection dynamics modulated by antibiotic pharmacokinetics and patient immune status, not simply by antibiotic exposure duration.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41579-020-0383-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Baquero et al. (2021) Nat Rev Microbiol — within-host evolution during treatment shows resistance emerges at predictable rates tied to mutation supply (population size × mutation rate)\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature09983", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Toprak et al. (2011) Nature Genet — microfluidic evolution experiments show step-wise resistance evolution follows stochastic fixation ladder; rate scales as √N at large pop sizes\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2016.09.040", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Barbosa et al. (2017) — sub-inhibitory concentrations select resistance faster than lethal concentrations, counter-intuitive implication of pharmacodynamic non-linearity\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-antibiotic-resistance-stochastic-dynamics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-antibiotic-synergy-pharmacodynamic-surfaces", "title": "Antibiotic pairs targeting synthetic-lethal gene pairs in E. coli essential network will show FICI < 0.5 in >80% of cases, while pairs targeting the same pathway will show FICI > 4 (antagonism) in >60% of cases", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41564-019-0423-z", "note": "Wood et al. (2019) showed mechanism-based epistasis predicts synergy", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2014.01.002", "note": "Chandrasekaran et al. genome-scale antibiotic interaction prediction", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-antibiotic-synergy-pharmacodynamic-surfaces.yaml" }, { "id": "h-antifreeze-protein-synthetic-polymer-design", "title": "Polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and antifreeze glycoprotein-mimicking block copolymers can replicate type I AFP ice-plane selectivity if their hydroxyl group spacing matches the ice Ih prism plane lattice at 4.52 Å, and such polymers will provide equivalent thermal hysteresis to natural AFPs at 1/10th the molecular weight", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.96.8.4282", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Haymet et al. (1999) - winter flounder AFP ice lattice matching; Kelvin mechanism" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Deller et al. (2014) - PVA and synthetic antifreeze polymer activity" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Vorontsova et al. (2018) - colligative vs non-colligative antifreeze mechanisms in polymers" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-antifreeze-protein-synthetic-polymer-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-approval-voting-reduces-strategic-manipulation-vs-plurality", "title": "Approval voting (voters approve any subset of candidates; winner has most approvals) reduces the frequency of strategically suboptimal voting relative to plurality voting in real elections, as measured by the fraction of voters whose approved candidates diverge from their stated first preference under plurality systems, and produces Condorcet-consistent outcomes more often.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "French local elections (Orsay experiments, 2002-2012): approval voting exit surveys found voters approved 2.4 candidates on average; outcomes differed from plurality results in 40% of cases — suggesting AV avoids the \"lesser evil\" problem\n" }, { "doi": "10.2307/1914085", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Gibbard (1973) — proves AV is also manipulable (any non-dictatorial rule is); but the frequency/profitability of manipulation may differ empirically\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-approval-voting-reduces-strategic-manipulation-vs-plurality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aqp2-trafficking-as-osmotic-valve", "title": "AQP2 vesicle trafficking to the apical membrane of kidney collecting duct principal cells functions as a molecularly switchable osmotic valve — with vasopressin-mediated PKA phosphorylation of Ser256 as the trigger — and the rate of trafficking is proportional to osmotic driving force (Δπ), making water reabsorption efficiency a function of both hormonal signal and physical gradient.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0959-440X(02)00323-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Agre et al. (2002) — AQP2 trafficking and vasopressin physiology" }, { "doi": "10.1152/physrev.90037.2008", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Hoffmann et al. (2009) — RVD/RVI and volume regulation" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Knepper et al. (2015, Physiol Rev) — molecular physiology of urinary concentrating mechanism" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aqp2-trafficking-as-osmotic-valve.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aragonite-saturation-coral-calcification-threshold", "title": "Coral calcification rates decline nonlinearly with aragonite saturation state, with a critical threshold at Ω_arag = 1.5 below which net dissolution exceeds calcification regardless of temperature, light, or nutrient conditions, and reef structural integrity will be compromised in tropical reefs by 2070 under RCP 8.5", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1155847", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Fabry et al. (2008) Science - ocean acidification impacts on calcifiers" }, { "doi": "10.5194/bg-4-655-2007", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Orr et al. (2005) - anthropogenic acidification projections; Ω_arag trajectories" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) - coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aragonite-saturation-coral-calcification-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-architectural-geometry-wellbeing-stress", "title": "Fractal dimension D=1.3-1.5 in built environment facades reduces physiological stress responses (cortisol, skin conductance) and enhances cognitive restoration via Attention Restoration Theory, while direct sunlight exposure, ceiling height proportional to room breadth, and biophilic elements independently reduce stress biomarkers", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01719.x", "note": "Taylor et al. (2006) — Fractal fluency: processing of fractal patterns by human brain", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.jenvp.2009.07.007", "note": "Kaplan & Kaplan (1989) — Attention Restoration Theory; Berto (2005) experimental validation", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01336", "note": "Eberhard (2009) — Architecture and the brain; biophilic design meta-analysis", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-architectural-geometry-wellbeing-stress.yaml" }, { "id": "h-architectural-geometry-wellbeing", "title": "Built environments with high spatial complexity, biophilic elements, and prospect-refuge balance causally reduce cortisol, improve attention restoration, and reduce self-reported stress compared to low-complexity uniform environments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1177/1359105312456 gy", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Ulrich et al. (1991) hospital room views of nature reduced post-surgical stress" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Attention Restoration Theory (Kaplan & Kaplan 1989) - natural complexity restores directed attention" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Appleton (1975) Prospect-Refuge theory - evolutionary preference for environments offering both overview and shelter" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-architectural-geometry-wellbeing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-arctic-amplification-local-feedback-dominance", "title": "Arctic amplification is primarily driven by local surface-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks (~60%) rather than poleward heat transport changes, with the relative contribution of transport increasing only under >3°C global warming scenarios.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41561-018-0124-9", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Stuecker et al. (2018) use CESM large ensemble to separate local feedbacks from remote forcing; surface albedo and lapse rate account for 65-70% of Arctic amplification in 1950-2100.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0320.1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Pithan & Mauritsen (2014) perform radiative kernel decomposition across CMIP5 models; lapse rate feedback is strongest single contributor but with large inter-model spread.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1029/2019GL082929", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Boeke & Taylor (2018) compare observational reanalysis with CMIP5 models; find local feedbacks account for >55% of amplification in ERA-Interim.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-arctic-amplification-local-feedback-dominance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-arrow-impossibility-voting-nudges", "title": "Behavioural nudges that alter the effective presentation order of policy alternatives exploit Arrow's independence-of-irrelevant-alternatives violations in human preference aggregation, and their cross-cultural failure rate is predicted by the degree of preference non-transitivity in each cultural context.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1257/jel.54.1.5", "note": "Thaler & Sunstein (2008) review — default-option nudges violate IIA: changing the default alters choices independently of the choice set.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1116302", "note": "Ariely, Loewenstein & Prelec (2003) — arbitrary anchors affect willingness-to-pay; demonstrates IIA violations in real economic choices.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjt022", "note": "Chetty et al. (2014) — nudges in retirement savings show cross-context variation; cultural factors modulate effectiveness.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-arrow-impossibility-voting-nudges.yaml" }, { "id": "h-aspic-legal-argument-outcome-prediction", "title": "ASPIC+ argumentation frameworks populated from legal briefs can predict appellate court outcomes with accuracy exceeding logistic regression on case features alone", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0004-3702(95)00021-9", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Dung (1995) - foundational semantics; no empirical outcome prediction tested" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aag2433", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Katz et al. (2017) Science Advances - machine learning predicts Supreme Court outcomes at 70%" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-aspic-legal-argument-outcome-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-atmospheric-blocking-arctic-amplification", "title": "Arctic amplification (reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient) is increasing Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency by 10-20% per degree of Arctic warming, and this signal is detectable in ERA5 reanalysis as a positive trend in blocking persistence above the 95% significance level when controlling for ENSO and NAO variability.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1175/MWR-D-13-00143.1", "note": "Woollings et al. (2018) - blocking review; Arctic amplification-blocking link discussed", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0003.1", "note": "Nabizadeh et al. (2019) - blocking event size increasing in ERA5", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-atmospheric-blocking-arctic-amplification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-atmospheric-convection-x-rayleigh-benard", "title": "Tropical mesoscale convective organization (self-aggregation of convection) is a Rayleigh-Bénard instability above Ra_c ≈ 10^18 in the tropical atmosphere, and the aggregation length scale scales with the effective atmospheric boundary layer depth as L ≈ 2π·H, predicting that a 10% increase in tropopause height under global warming will increase convective aggregation scale by the same fraction", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/S0022112000001373", "note": "Getling (1998) — Rayleigh-Bénard Convection: Structures and Dynamics; cell size scaling theory", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wing et al. (2017) — Convective self-aggregation feedbacks in near-global cloud-resolving simulations; J Adv Model Earth Syst 9:2891", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-atmospheric-convection-x-rayleigh-benard.yaml" }, { "id": "h-attention-regularized-protein-language-models-improve-fitness-ranking", "title": "Attention-regularized protein language models improve top-k fitness hit rates over baseline transformers.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Transformer attention supports long-range sequence dependency modeling.", "arxiv": "1706.03762" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-attention-regularized-protein-language-models-improve-fitness-ranking.yaml" }, { "id": "h-attention-spotlight-thalamic-gating", "title": "The attentional spotlight is implemented by thalamic reticular nucleus gating of thalamocortical relay neurons: spatial attention shifts the TRN inhibition pattern to selectively amplify feedforward signals from attended locations while suppressing those from unattended locations, making the TRN the physical substrate of the biased-competition mechanism.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.2759-10.2010", "note": "McAlonan et al. (2008) — TRN neurons in lateral geniculate relay show attention-modulated firing; spatial attention selectively gates visual input.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature08617", "note": "Wimmer et al. (2015) — optogenetic TRN stimulation produces attention-like suppression of thalamocortical signals in non-selected spatial channels.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2018.05.013", "note": "Schmitt et al. (2017) — higher-order thalamus mediates cortical attention routing; TRN gates corticothalamic feedback loops.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-attention-spotlight-thalamic-gating.yaml" }, { "id": "h-auction-design-x-complexity-theory", "title": "No polynomial-time truthful mechanism achieves better than O(sqrt(m))-approximation to optimal revenue for combinatorial auctions with m items and submodular valuations, establishing a computational hardness lower bound for truthful multi-item auction design under standard complexity assumptions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/501720.501721", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Conitzer & Sandholm (2002) - computing optimal mechanisms is NP-hard; establishes computational barrier" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Dobzinski & Nisan (2006) - approximation of multi-item auctions; current best ratio O(log m) for subadditive valuations", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Cai, Devanur & Weinberg (2016) - constant-factor approximation for additive bidders; truthfulness compatible with good approximation in restricted settings", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-auction-design-x-complexity-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-auction-theory-x-mechanism-design", "title": "Second-price combinatorial auctions with item complementarities will achieve at least 63% of optimal social welfare in polynomial time via the greedy algorithm, and this bound is tight for submodular valuation functions\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/1911865", "note": "Myerson (1981) - Optimal auction design; Mathematics of Operations Research 6:58", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lehmann et al. (2002) - Truth revelation in approximately efficient combinatorial auctions; J ACM 49:577; doi:10.1145/585265.585267", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-auction-theory-x-mechanism-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-autoimmune-disease-idiotypic-attractor-bifurcation", "title": "Autoimmune diseases represent bifurcations of the idiotypic network to pathological attractors where self-reactive clones are stabilised by mutual idiotypic stimulation, and this bifurcation is detectable as a qualitative change in BCR repertoire network topology before clinical symptom onset\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Studies of pre-clinical lupus (anti-dsDNA antibodies appear 3–9 years before diagnosis; Arbuckle et al. 2003 NEJM) show the immune network shifts toward autoimmune attractors before overt disease — consistent with attractor theory." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "BCR repertoire studies in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) show expanded clonotypes and reduced diversity before joint inflammation — potentially reflecting network bifurcation, though idiotypic connectivity is not yet measured." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Idiotypic regulation has not been experimentally demonstrated to be a major mechanistic force in human autoimmunity; most current models focus on antigen-driven T-cell help and regulatory T-cell breakdown rather than idiotypic network dynamics." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-autoimmune-disease-idiotypic-attractor-bifurcation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-autoimmune-molecular-mimicry-trigger", "title": "Environmental microbial antigens that share structural epitopes with self-proteins (molecular mimicry) are the primary environmental triggers of autoimmune disease in genetically predisposed individuals carrying HLA risk alleles.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.celrep.2015.06.039", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Atkinson et al. — molecular mimicry between coxsackievirus B and GAD65 triggers pancreatic beta-cell autoimmunity; structural overlap confirmed by crystallography\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nri3705", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Rojas et al. (2018) Nat Rev Immunol — review of molecular mimicry mechanisms; best evidence in Type 1 diabetes, rheumatic fever (Strep/heart crossreactivity), GBS\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.jaut.2018.07.007", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Gut dysbiosis model: altered microbiome composition correlates with autoimmune onset in twins discordant for disease, suggesting environmental microbial communities are causal\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-autoimmune-molecular-mimicry-trigger.yaml" }, { "id": "h-autoimmune-pi-gain-deficiency", "title": "Autoimmune diseases characterized by Treg deficiency (type 1 diabetes, multiple sclerosis) will show a quantifiably lower PI controller integral gain K_i in longitudinal IL-2/Treg blood data, detectable before clinical onset and predictive of disease severity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003122", "note": "Khailaie et al. (2013) — PI controller model predicts lower K_i in Treg-deficient autoimmunity" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1186/1752-0509-4-2", "note": "Busse et al. (2010) — ODE model of IL-2/Treg dynamics predicts oscillatory behavior near stability margin" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Jeffrey et al. (2012) J Autoimmun — Treg numbers are reduced in type 1 diabetes patients at diagnosis, consistent with reduced K_i but not yet quantified in control-theoretic terms.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The PI controller model assumes linear dynamics around a stable fixed point. Autoimmune diseases may involve bistability (two stable immune states: tolerant and activated), in which case the PI framework breaks down and a bifurcation theory approach is needed instead.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-autoimmune-pi-gain-deficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-autonomy-need-empowerment-maximization", "title": "Intrinsic motivation is operationally identical to empowerment maximisation — the brain implements a policy that maximises the channel capacity from actions to future states I(A;S'), and autonomy need frustration produces measurable reductions in action-outcome mutual information detectable from both neural signals and behavioral entropy", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037//0003-066x.55.1.68", "note": "Ryan & Deci (2000) SDT — phenomenological evidence for autonomy as fundamental motivational construct", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2013.09.038", "note": "Friston et al. active inference — free energy minimisation as substrate for intrinsic motivation", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.0710.4919", "note": "Klyubin et al. empowerment — channel capacity measure for intrinsic motivation in artificial agents", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-autonomy-need-empowerment-maximization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-auxin-turing-pattern-shoot-branching", "title": "The spacing of axillary bud outgrowth along a plant shoot obeys the wavelength-selection rule of a Turing reaction-diffusion system, with bud spacing inversely proportional to the square root of the ratio of auxin diffusion coefficient to PIN-turnover rate, and this relationship is predictive across Arabidopsis mutants with altered PIN expression levels", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1121248", "note": "Jonsson et al. (2006) — auxin-driven Turing model for phyllotaxis; foundational Turing framework in plants", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cub.2010.09.026", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Friml et al. (2010) — PIN dynamics and polar auxin transport in bud/branch formation" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Prusinkiewicz et al. (2009) — control of bud activation by an auxin transport switch" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-auxin-turing-pattern-shoot-branching.yaml" }, { "id": "h-av-edge-case-power-law-distribution", "title": "Truly novel edge cases for autonomous vehicles follow a power-law frequency distribution, making exhaustive real-world testing infeasible — safety validation must rely on simulation-based scenario coverage over a defined operational design domain (ODD) with formal coverage proofs.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kalra & Paddock (2016) RAND study: AV requires 11 billion miles to statistically demonstrate safety — infeasible for near-term deployment", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Uesato et al. (2018) adversarial scenario generation for AV testing: rare event frequency follows power-law in naturalistic driving data", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Thorn et al. (2018) NHTSA AV testing framework: ODD-based safety case approach as alternative to mileage accumulation", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-av-edge-case-power-law-distribution.yaml" }, { "id": "h-axon-soliton-collision-dynamics", "title": "Action potential collision outcomes at axon branch points (transmission, annihilation, or reflection) can be predicted within 10% accuracy by KdV soliton collision rules applied to the Hodgkin-Huxley cable equation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1113/jphysiol.1952.sp004764", "note": "Hodgkin & Huxley (1952) — foundational HH equations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-axon-soliton-collision-dynamics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-banach-space-universality-hierarchy", "title": "The space of separable Banach spaces under isometric equivalence is not classifiable by countable structures (Borel reducibility), and the isomorphism relation on separable Banach spaces is strictly more complex than any orbit equivalence relation induced by a Polish group action — placing it at the top of the descriptive set theory complexity hierarchy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ferenczi et al. (2009) isometric equivalence of Banach spaces is Borel reducible to isomorphism of countable structures — lower complexity than expected", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Gowers (1994) solution to Banach's hyperplane problem: there exist Banach spaces non-isomorphic to their hyperplanes — infinite complexity of isomorphism classes", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Rosendal (2011) coarse geometry of Banach spaces: quasi-isometry equivalence has different Borel complexity than isomorphism — new invariant landscape", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-banach-space-universality-hierarchy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bank-run-lyapunov-time-shrinks-with-public-information-leaks", "title": "In stylized withdrawal-belief dynamics, credible leaks that reduce deposit-insurance trust shrink the effective divergence timescale between nearby trajectories — a metaphorical Lyapunov time — but real payment systems may saturate due to circuit breakers; treat as hypothesis not theorem.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/1884828", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Foundational multiple-equilibrium framing for runs." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Lyapunov language is heuristic without an identified smooth flow model." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bank-run-lyapunov-time-shrinks-with-public-information-leaks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-barcode-spacing-heuristic-lowers-decoding-error-measured-in-negative-controls", "title": "Increasing minimum pairwise Hamming distance among synthesized barcode adapters beyond empirically tuned thresholds will monotonically reduce negative-control misassignment rates in multiplexed CRISPR pools holding sequencing depth fixed — falsified if PCR chimera dominance yields error floors independent of spacing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/1907238", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Classical block-code distance intuition reference point only" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-barcode-spacing-heuristic-lowers-decoding-error-measured-in-negative-controls.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bat-echolocation-neural-matched-filter-implementation", "title": "The inferior colliculus of echolocating bats implements a neural matched filter optimally tuned to the species-specific FM sweep waveform — neurons with delay- tuned delay-period responses functionally equivalent to radar matched filters — and this implementation is sufficient to account for the 2-3 mm range resolution measured behaviorally.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.441058", "note": "Simmons (1979) showed that big brown bat range discrimination of 0.75 mm approaches the physical limit for FM sweep bandwidth — consistent with matched filter processing achieving delta_R = c/2B.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Suga & O'Neill (1979) Science: FM-FM neurons in mustached bat auditory cortex are tuned to specific echo delays relative to emitted pulse — direct neural correlate of delay-line coincidence detection, analogous to Jeffress ITD detector.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Some bat behaviors (target glint discrimination, object shape encoding) exceed what a simple matched filter can achieve — suggesting additional neural processing beyond the matched filter (possibly involving two-glint interference or spectral analysis of FM echoes).\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bat-echolocation-neural-matched-filter-implementation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bayes-factor-theory-selection", "title": "Replacing null-hypothesis significance testing with pre-registered Bayes factor analysis (B_{01} threshold ≥ 10 for publication) would increase the positive predictive value of published findings by at least 50% and reduce irreproducibility rates in psychology and medicine by cutting false-positive publication rates below 5%.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Kass & Raftery (1995) — Bayes factor calibration; B > 10 = strong evidence against H_0" }, { "doi": "10.1177/0956797611417632", "type": "related", "note": "Simmons et al. (2011) — p-hacking inflates false positive rate above 5%" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bayes-factor-theory-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bayesian-dropout-uncertainty-improves-adaptive-trial-decisions", "title": "Calibrated Monte Carlo dropout uncertainty improves adaptive clinical-trial decision efficiency without inflating false positive rates.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1506.02142", "note": "Approximate posterior sampling via dropout.", "confidence": 0.64 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bayesian-dropout-uncertainty-improves-adaptive-trial-decisions.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bayesian-marginal-likelihood-occam-razor-automatic", "title": "Bayesian model comparison via marginal likelihood P(E|M) = ∫ P(E|θ,M)P(θ|M)dθ automatically implements Occam's razor — the model evidence penalizes complexity proportional to the prior volume of unused parameter space — and this automatic penalization is formally equivalent to the minimum description length (MDL) principle and Fisher information geometry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "MacKay (1992) Neural Comput 4:415 — Bayesian evidence as Occam factor; systematic derivation of automatic complexity penalization", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "note": "Jeffreys (1961) Theory of Probability — Jeffreys factors for model comparison; Bayes factor BF₁₂ = P(E|M₁)/P(E|M₂)", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "note": "Rissanen (1978) — MDL and Bayesian evidence are equivalent to leading order in n; connecting information theory and Bayesian model selection", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bayesian-marginal-likelihood-occam-razor-automatic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bbb-pericyte-wnt-signaling", "title": "Pericyte-derived WNT ligands dynamically regulate blood-brain barrier permeability through β-catenin signalling in endothelial tight junctions, and disruption of this pathway is a common upstream mechanism in neurological disease-associated BBB breakdown.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature14412", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Daneman et al. (2010) Nature — pericytes are essential for BBB induction and maintenance; PDGF-B/PDGFRβ signalling controls pericyte coverage and barrier tightness\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1200163109", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "WNT/β-catenin signalling directly upregulates claudin-3, occludin, and ZO-1 in CNS endothelial cells; loss of WNT signalling in Alzheimer models correlates with early BBB disruption\n" }, { "doi": "10.1172/JCI152229", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Sweeney et al. (2021) — pericyte injury is an early biomarker (CSF PDGFR-β) of cognitive decline; suggests BBB regulation is dynamic and pericyte-driven\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bbb-pericyte-wnt-signaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bci-information-rate-fisher-bound", "title": "The information transfer rate of state-of-the-art intracortical BCIs is within a factor of 3 of the Fisher information bound set by the recorded neural population, and the primary limitation is non-stationarity rather than suboptimal decoding, predicting that adaptive decoders that track neural tuning drift will outperform fixed decoders by 2-3x in chronic implant conditions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TNSRE.2004.835287", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Wu et al. (2004) Kalman filter decoder achieves near-optimal performance in stationary conditions; current BCIs approach the fixed-tuning Fisher bound, consistent with non-stationarity being the primary limitation.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nn.2736", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Shenoy et al. (2013) review shows BCI performance peaks in acute experiments and degrades chronically; supports hypothesis that decoder-neural drift mismatch rather than decoding suboptimality limits chronic performance.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bci-information-rate-fisher-bound.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bcm-sliding-threshold-homeostatic-metaplasticity-cortical-map", "title": "The BCM sliding modification threshold θ_M implements homeostatic metaplasticity in vivo, and visual cortex deprivation (monocular deprivation) lowers θ_M in deprived-eye columns within 48 hours — enabling adult plasticity rescue by pharmacologically reducing θ_M via mGluR5 blockade or trkB agonism.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kirkwood et al. (1996) Science 272:1518 — monocular deprivation shifts LTP/LTD crossover point in visual cortex slices in the direction predicted by BCM: deprived-eye inputs show lower threshold for LTP (θ_M decrease), consistent with sliding threshold", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bear (2003) Neuron 38:743 — review of BCM predictions and experimental support: θ_M slides with average postsynaptic activity measured over hours to days; pharmacological reduction of activity (TTX to deprived eye) mimics deprivation-induced plasticity", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bhanu et al. (2019) Nat Med — mGluR5 positive allosteric modulator increases LTP expression in adult amblyopic rats; consistent with lowering θ_M to restore LTP at deprived-eye synapses", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Synaptic scaling (Turrigiano 2008) provides an alternative homeostatic mechanism (scaling all synapses multiplicatively) that could explain some BCM predictions without a sliding threshold — distinguishing BCM from synaptic scaling requires precise measurement of selectivity (BCM: multiplicative at LTP-LTD crossover; scaling: proportional everywhere)", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bcm-sliding-threshold-homeostatic-metaplasticity-cortical-map.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bell-local-hidden-variables-definitively-ruled-out", "title": "Loophole-free Bell experiments (Hensen et al. 2015, Giustina et al. 2015, Shalm et al. 2015) definitively rule out all local hidden variable (LHV) theories consistent with special relativity, implying that quantum non-locality is a genuine feature of nature — though it does not enable superluminal signaling because correlations cannot be used to transmit information.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Hensen et al. (2015) Nature 526:682 — loophole-free Bell test (Delft)", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.95 }, { "note": "Giustina et al. (2015) Phys Rev Lett 115:250401 — loophole-free Bell test (Vienna)", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.94 }, { "note": "Bell (1964) Physics 1:195 — original Bell inequality", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.99 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bell-local-hidden-variables-definitively-ruled-out.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bet-hedging-x-portfolio-diversification", "title": "Environmental covariance tensors inferred from satellite-derived drought modes will explain variance in bet-hedging allele frequencies across wild grass populations better than scalar rainfall variance alone — treating diversification analogously to portfolio factor models.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/1907967", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Kelly growth-optimal framing complements ecological diversification analogies" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bet-hedging-x-portfolio-diversification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-beta-cell-dedifferentiation-rescue", "title": "Type 2 diabetes beta cell exhaustion is caused by dedifferentiation (loss of mature beta cell identity markers) rather than apoptosis, and is pharmacologically reversible by GLP-1 receptor agonist plus GABA combination therapy that restores PDX1/NKX6.1 transcription factor expression.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2013.06.041", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Talchai et al. (2012) Cell — 30-40% of islet cells in diabetic mice express progenitor markers (Neurogenin3, Aldehyde dehydrogenase) instead of insulin, demonstrating dedifferentiation rather than loss\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nm.3705", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Wang et al. (2014) Nat Med — GABA treatment promotes beta cell proliferation and converts alpha cells to beta cell identity in mice; GLP-1 agonists restore PDX1 expression in stressed beta cells\n" }, { "doi": "10.2337/db18-0794", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Taylor et al. (2019) — very low calorie diet in T2D patients restores first-phase insulin secretion in 50% within 2 weeks, consistent with functional dedifferentiation being reversed by metabolic stress removal\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-beta-cell-dedifferentiation-rescue.yaml" }, { "id": "h-beta-delta-neuroeconomics-dual-system", "title": "The beta-delta model of intertemporal discounting reflects a genuine dual-system neural architecture in which limbic circuits (nucleus accumbens, amygdala) encode hyperbolic discount factor beta for immediately available rewards while dlPFC encodes the exponential discount factor delta for future rewards — and these two systems compete rather than integrate, with the winning system determined by working memory load and emotional state.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1100907", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "McClure et al. (2004) — separate neural systems for immediate vs. delayed rewards" }, { "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.4117-06.2007", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Plassmann et al. (2007) — vmPFC encodes subjective value in economic decisions" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrn2357", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Rangel et al. (2008) — neural framework for value-based decisions" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Kable & Glimcher (2007, Nat Neurosci) — single system (vmPFC) encodes hyperbolic discount at all delays, challenging dual-system model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-beta-delta-neuroeconomics-dual-system.yaml" }, { "id": "h-beta-scheduled-layer-wise-training-mimics-rg-stability", "title": "On linear-Gaussian generative hierarchies with known RG coarse-graining, layerwise training schedules that match contraction rates reduce intermediate representation instability versus mismatched schedules—without claiming universal RG equivalence for realistic CNNs.", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1410.3831", "note": "Context for RG-flavored analogies and their limits in ML depth discussions.", "confidence": 0.44 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-beta-scheduled-layer-wise-training-mimics-rg-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-beta-vae-regularization-improves-single-cell-state-separability", "title": "Beta-regularized VAEs improve single-cell state separability and transferability versus standard VAEs.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "VAE framework for probabilistic latent representations.", "arxiv": "1312.6114" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-beta-vae-regularization-improves-single-cell-state-separability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-betti-numbers-cognitive-complexity", "title": "The Betti numbers of the neural population activity manifold in prefrontal cortex increase monotonically with working memory load and decrease with cognitive fatigue or aging, providing topological biomarkers of cognitive capacity that are more sensitive than linear dimensionality measures (PCA variance explained).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.abg4894", "note": "Gardner et al. (2022): grid cells occupy a torus (β₁ = 2, β₂ = 1) — a non-trivial topology demonstrating that persistent homology reveals structure invisible to linear methods. Working memory representations are likely similarly structured but unexplored.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41593-019-0555-4", "note": "Cueva & Wei (2018) and related work: recurrent networks trained on navigation tasks spontaneously develop grid-like representations — suggesting that working memory networks trained on high-dimensional tasks should develop complex manifold topologies.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "High-dimensional neural manifolds require large numbers of simultaneously recorded neurons to reliably estimate persistent homology (statistical power issue). Current multi-electrode technology may not provide sufficient neuron counts in prefrontal cortex to estimate Betti numbers reliably, making this hypothesis difficult to test with current instrumentation.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-betti-numbers-cognitive-complexity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-betz-limit-array-cooperation-exceeds-individual", "title": "Wind turbine arrays with cooperative pitch and yaw control that actively redirect wake flows can exceed the power output of independently operating Betz-limited turbines by >10% at array level, by exploiting wake steering to reduce velocity deficit experienced by downstream turbines\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-betz-limit-array-cooperation-exceeds-individual.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bic-protected-metasurfaces-maintain-high-q-under-fabrication-noise", "title": "Quasi-BIC dielectric metasurfaces that co-optimize symmetry protection and footprint maintain higher median Q under realistic fabrication noise than high-index resonator baselines without BIC design constraints.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41566-018-0314-4", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.47, "note": "BIC design principles suggest high-Q robustness pathways under controlled perturbations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bic-protected-metasurfaces-maintain-high-q-under-fabrication-noise.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bifurcation-continuation-predicts-alternans-onset-optical-mapping", "title": "For Langendorff-perfused hearts instrumented with voltage-sensitive dyes, numerically continued bifurcation boundaries from patient-specific ion-channel posteriors will predict the pacing-cycle-length onset of spatially concordant alternans within ±5% when fibrosis geometry is co-registered — falsified if mismatch persists after rigorous parameter calibration across ≥20 specimens.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.45, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.76.021917", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Theoretical alternans–bifurcation coupling in idealized models" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bifurcation-continuation-predicts-alternans-onset-optical-mapping.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biodegradable-electronics-cellulose", "title": "Cellulose nanofiber transistors with degradation triggered by enzymatic exposure can achieve mobility > 1 cm²/V·s and on/off ratio > 10^6, meeting the electrical performance threshold for implantable biosensors while degrading within 30 days in physiological conditions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bettinger & Bao (2010) transient electronics: silicon nanomembranes on biodegradable PLGA substrates achieve 100-day in vivo functional lifetime", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hwang et al. (2012) Science: fully transient Si electronics dissolve in saline at predictable rate controlled by Si thickness (1nm/day)", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Irimia-Vladu (2014) 'Green' organic transistors from natural materials: pentacene on shellac substrate, mobility 0.6 cm²/V·s", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biodegradable-electronics-cellulose.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bioelectric-pattern-regeneration-control", "title": "Pharmacological manipulation of resting membrane potential in Xenopus laevis hindlimb buds using ion channel modulators (ivermectin for Cl- channels, monensin for Na+) will redirect blastema patterning to produce an extra digit in > 20% of operated tadpoles, demonstrating that Vmem patterns are instructive rather than merely permissive for digit number specification", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1469-7580.2011.01410.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Levin (2011) — bioelectric code framework; prior work showing Vmem manipulation alters frog regeneration" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Tseng et al. (2010) — bioelectric signalling regulates size during Xenopus tadpole tail regeneration", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Durant et al. (2017) — long-term memory encoded in bioelectric gradients in planaria" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bioelectric-pattern-regeneration-control.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biofilm-eps-crosslink-dispersal-threshold", "title": "Treating P. aeruginosa biofilms with 10 nM dispersin B (EPS beta-1,6-GlcNAc glycoside hydrolase) for 30 minutes will reduce bulk storage modulus G' by > 90% and cause > 80% biofilm detachment, with the detachment threshold correlated with the yield stress falling below the hydrodynamic wall shear stress in a quantitative Kelvin-Voigt viscoelastic model", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s00253-001-0910-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Stoodley et al. (2002) — biofilm viscoelastic response and EPS role in cohesion" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kaplan et al. (2004) — dispersin B degrades PNAG biofilm matrix in S. epidermidis", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Loiselle & Anderson (2003) — biofilm detachment under flow; critical shear stress" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biofilm-eps-crosslink-dispersal-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biofilm-x-active-nematic", "title": "+1/2 topological defects in E. coli biofilms causally drive local cell extrusion at rates 3× higher than defect-free regions, with extrusion probability scaling with defect velocity predicted by active nematic extensile stress magnitude", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nphys3600", "note": "Doostmohammadi et al. — active nematic theory of bacterial biofilm topological defects", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Saw et al. (2017) — topological defects in epithelial monolayers cause cell death; Nature 544:212", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biofilm-x-active-nematic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biogeochemical-box-models-x-attractor-stability", "title": "Continuation analysis on IPCC-class coupled carbon-cycle shells will reveal overlapping hysteresis bands whose widths shrink below observational proxy resolution when Atlantic overturning coupling strengthens — constraining when minimal box models exaggerate multistability claims versus coupled climate configurations.\n", "status": "draft", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.42, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1029/2001GB001398", "type": "related", "note": "Marine carbon modeling lineage motivating continuation experiments" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biogeochemical-box-models-x-attractor-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bioluminescence-coevolution-visual-system-deep-sea", "title": "The spectral peak of bioluminescence emission in mesopelagic organisms (400-1000 m depth) has coevolved with the peak sensitivity of visual pigments in predators at corresponding depths, with both tracking the depth-dependent blue-shifting of residual downwelling daylight, producing a tight correlation between depth, emission lambda_max, and predator rhodopsin lambda_max.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081028", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Haddock et al. (2010) Annu Rev Mar Sci — bioluminescence depth distribution; blue emission dominance in deep-sea" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s00018-002-8437-7", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Viviani (2002) — luciferase colour tuning mechanisms" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bioluminescence-coevolution-visual-system-deep-sea.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biomechanics-x-soft-robotics", "title": "Compliant bipedal robots with leg spring stiffness k = 5·mg/L (matching the biological spring stiffness scaling law for body mass m, leg length L) achieve metabolic cost of transport within 20% of biological locomotion at matched Froude number, while rigid-leg robots of the same mass require 2.5× more energy at equivalent speed", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1088/1748-3190/aa6b9b", "note": "Rus & Tolley (2015) — Soft robotics design and control; Nature 521:467", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Roberts et al. (1997) — Muscular force in running turkeys: the economy of minimizing work; Science 275:1113; elastic energy storage in tendons", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biomechanics-x-soft-robotics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biomimetic-slip-locomotion-minimal-energy-cost-robots", "title": "Robots implementing SLIP-based compliant leg control with leg spring constant k tuned to body mass via the biological scaling law k ∝ m^0.67 will achieve specific energy cost of transport (COT) < 1 J/(N·m) — matching biological runners — regardless of morphology, provided Strouhal number is maintained at St ≈ 0.25–0.35 for swimming and flapping analogues.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Full & Koditschek (1999) SLIP model template framework: biological runners from cockroach to human follow SLIP dynamics", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.288.5463.100", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Dickinson et al. (2000) — biological locomotion principles unified by mechanics, not morphology" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Boston Dynamics Atlas has COT ~ 3–8 J/(N·m) despite SLIP-inspired control — leg segment mass and actuator dynamics add energy costs not captured in massless-leg SLIP" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biomimetic-slip-locomotion-minimal-energy-cost-robots.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biomimicry-design-convergence-performance-ceiling", "title": "Biomimicry-derived designs converge on performance ceilings set by the underlying physical constraints — not by evolutionary history — so that lotus-inspired surfaces, whale-tubercle blades, and spider-silk analogs will asymptotically approach but not surpass the physical limits for superhydrophobicity, stall delay, and toughness respectively, confirming natural selection as an effective but not omniscient optimizer.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1002/jmor.1052250106", "note": "Fish & Battle (1995) tubercle geometry analysis: leading-edge wavelength and amplitude are within 10% of values predicted to maximize stall angle delay from thin-airfoil theory — suggesting near-optimal geometric tuning by evolution.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Cassie-Baxter superhydrophobic surfaces (contact angle 180° = total non-wetting) are physically achievable; lotus leaf achieves ~160° — there is a measurable gap from the physical limit, suggesting room for engineering improvement beyond biology.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The physical constraint framing may be too simple: biological materials are multifunctional (lotus leaf is also gas-exchanging, light-harvesting, and self- repairing) so the biological optimum is a multi-objective compromise, not a single-metric optimum. Engineering designs optimized for a single metric may legitimately surpass biological performance on that metric while sacrificing others.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biomimicry-design-convergence-performance-ceiling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biomineralisation-voronoi-control", "title": "Organisms control polymorph selection and crystallographic texture in biomineralisation by tuning the spatial geometry of organic matrix proteins to enforce Voronoi-like tessellation of mineralisation fronts, selecting crystal habit via geometric frustration rather than direct molecular templating alone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1148014", "note": "Weiner & Addadi (2011) review — organic matrix proteins nucleate and orient crystal growth; spatial confinement within matrix channels is key.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nmat2699", "note": "Meldrum & Cölfen (2008) — confinement of calcium carbonate in synthetic spaces selects polymorph and orientation, supporting geometric rather than purely chemical control.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1039/c2cs35317c", "note": "Nudelman & Sommerdijk (2012) — nucleation at organic interfaces; geometry of nucleation site affects polymorph.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biomineralisation-voronoi-control.yaml" }, { "id": "h-biosignature-false-positive-abiotic-oxygen", "title": "Abiotic O2/O3 biosignature false positives arise primarily from hydrogen escape and CO2 photolysis on dry, high-UV planets — distinguishable from biotic production via CO and O2 column ratio measurements", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1089/ast.2013.1145", "note": "Wordsworth & Pierrehumbert (2014) — abiotic oxygen buildup on dry planets", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1002/2015GL065792", "note": "Harman et al. (2015) — abiotic O2 and CO2 photolysis false positives", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1089/ast.2018.1914", "note": "Schwieterman et al. (2018) — biosignature gas review", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-biosignature-false-positive-abiotic-oxygen.yaml" }, { "id": "h-birdsong-context-free-grammar-test", "title": "A controlled playback experiment testing center-embedded motif dependencies in Bengalese finch song will demonstrate that birds respond selectively to grammatically correct vs. incorrect sequences that cannot be distinguished by a probabilistic finite-state model, providing evidence for context-free (Type 2 Chomsky) syntactic processing", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nn1153", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Okanoya (2004) — Bengalese finch shows branching motif structure consistent with context-free grammar" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0003842", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Gentner et al. (2006) — European starling trained to discriminate center-embedded sequences; methodological template" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Berwick et al. (2011) — theoretical argument that birdsong syntax reaches at least Type 2 in Bengalese finch" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-birdsong-context-free-grammar-test.yaml" }, { "id": "h-birkhoff-kolmogorov-aesthetic-sweet-spot", "title": "Aesthetic preference ratings for visual and auditory stimuli follow an inverted-U function of lossless compression ratio (a computable approximation of Kolmogorov complexity K), with peak preference at intermediate compression ratios of 2–5x — the \"sweet spot\" — and this relationship is cross-culturally universal, replicating across at least 6 cultural groups with distinct aesthetic traditions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/20833", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Taylor et al. (1999) Nature — fractal dimension D ≈ 1.3-1.5 correlates with aesthetic preference for Pollock paintings" }, { "doi": "10.1109/TAMD.2010.2059346", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Schmidhuber (2010) — formal compression-progress theory of beauty and curiosity" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-birkhoff-kolmogorov-aesthetic-sweet-spot.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bis-disgust-threshold-pathogen-prevalence-calibration", "title": "Trait disgust sensitivity calibrates to local historical pathogen prevalence across populations via epigenetic mechanisms (DNA methylation of serotonin transporter and oxytocin receptor promoters), such that populations from high-pathogen regions show heritable but reversible BIS upregulation detectable within 2 generations of migration to low-pathogen environments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Fincher et al. (2008) Proc R Soc B 275:1279 — historical pathogen prevalence predicts collectivism (r=0.69) and low extraversion (r=0.49) across 68 nations; effect size large enough to suggest biological mechanism beyond cultural transmission alone", "confidence": 0.62 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lam et al. (2010) — serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR) frequency correlates with pathogen prevalence across nations; 5-HTTLPR S-allele associated with higher neuroticism and disgust sensitivity — possible genetic mechanism", "confidence": 0.5 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Murray & Schaller (2016) — cross-national BIS-pathogen correlations could reflect historical cultural transmission (language, religion, norms) rather than biological calibration; within-nation migration studies are confounded by selective migration", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bis-disgust-threshold-pathogen-prevalence-calibration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-black-scholes-heat-equation", "title": "Fractional Black-Scholes PDE with Lévy stable log-return distribution (α-stable, α<2) produces option smiles consistent with market implied volatility surfaces, outperforming the normal Black-Scholes model out-of-sample", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/260062", "note": "Black & Scholes (1973) original option pricing model", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Carr & Wu (2003) The finite moment log-stable process and option pricing. J Finance 58:753", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-black-scholes-heat-equation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-blackscholes-x-diffusion-equation", "title": "Financial return distributions are well-described by a fractional diffusion equation with a Levy stable index alpha < 2 that accounts for fat tails, and this index is stable across market regimes and asset classes\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/260062", "note": "Black & Scholes (1973) - The pricing of options and corporate liabilities; foundational model", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Mantegna & Stanley (1994) - Stochastic process with ultraslow convergence to a Gaussian; Phys Rev Lett 73:2946; doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.73.2946", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-blackscholes-x-diffusion-equation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-blood-coagulation-cascade-boolean", "title": "Patient-specific ODE coagulation models parameterized from standard clotting assays (PT, APTT, factor levels) will predict thrombin generation curves (peak, lag time, velocity index) with >85% accuracy in hemophilia A patients on prophylactic factor VIII replacement", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1182/blood-2003-05-1750", "note": "Monroe & Hoffman (2006) coagulation cascade mechanics", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1007/s10439-009-9798-x", "note": "Luan & Bhatt (2007) thrombin generation analysis", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-blood-coagulation-cascade-boolean.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bmp-wnt-diffusion-ratio-turing-digits", "title": "BMP and WNT morphogens in the developing vertebrate limb bud satisfy the Turing instability condition D_WNT/D_BMP > 10, directly predicting the observed inter-digit spacing from RD theory", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aai7830", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Shyer et al. (2017) - BMP-WNT RD mechanism in digit patterning with genetic perturbation evidence" }, { "doi": "10.1098/rstb.1952.0012", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Turing (1952) - mathematical framework predicting instability condition" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bmp-wnt-diffusion-ratio-turing-digits.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bocd-with-hazard-adaptation-detects-glacier-regime-shifts-earlier", "title": "Hazard-adaptive BOCPD detects glacier calving regime shifts earlier than fixed-threshold monitoring at comparable false-alert rates.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/0710.3742", "note": "Adams and MacKay BOCPD method.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bocd-with-hazard-adaptation-detects-glacier-regime-shifts-earlier.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bold-fmri-hagen-poiseuille-resolution-limit", "title": "The fundamental spatial resolution limit of BOLD fMRI is 300-500 micrometers due to Hagen-Poiseuille r^4 sensitivity creating a vascular point-spread function that cannot be overcome by increasing field strength alone\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1152/physrev.00061.2017", "note": "Attwell et al. (2017) - What is a pericyte; neurovascular coupling review with fluid dynamics", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Ogawa et al. (1990) - Oxygenation-sensitive contrast in MRI of rodent brain; first BOLD signal — fluid dynamic origin", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Duvernoy et al. (1981) - Cortical blood vessels of the human brain; capillary architecture data for fluid model", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bold-fmri-hagen-poiseuille-resolution-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-boltzmann-machine-x-ising-model", "title": "Restricted Boltzmann machines trained on natural images will develop effective coupling constants that exhibit a spin glass phase transition as network size increases, with the glass transition temperature inversely related to dataset diversity\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0364-0213(85)80012-4", "note": "Ackley, Hinton & Sejnowski (1985) - A learning algorithm for Boltzmann machines", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Tubiana & Monasson (2017) - Emergence of compositional representations in restricted Boltzmann machines; Phys Rev Lett 118:138301; doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.138301", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-boltzmann-machine-x-ising-model.yaml" }, { "id": "h-boolean-network-k2-criticality-cell-reprogramming-efficiency", "title": "Gene regulatory networks operating at the K=2 criticality (edge of chaos) in Kauffman's NK model maximize reprogramming efficiency — the probability of noise-induced basin crossing from one cell fate attractor to another — relative to subcritical (K<2) or supercritical (K>2) connectivity regimes\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1005725107", "note": "Huang et al. (2010) — bifurcation dynamics in bipotent progenitor cell fate; attractor model validated experimentally", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0603071103", "note": "Huang et al. (2005) — cell fates as high-dimensional attractor states of gene regulatory network", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1007/BF01742986", "note": "Kauffman (1969) — original NK model; K=2 yields critical dynamics and sqrt(N) attractors", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-boolean-network-k2-criticality-cell-reprogramming-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-borrelia-triple-combo-persister-eradication", "title": "The combination of daptomycin + doxycycline + cefuroxime will achieve >99% eradication of Borrelia burgdorferi persister cells (all morphological forms) in a 28-day regimen, translating the Feng et al. (2015) in vitro finding to a validated PTLDS treatment.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1128/AAC.00501-15", "note": "Feng et al. (2015) FDA-approved drug library screen: daptomycin + doxycycline + cefuroxime achieved >99% kill of biofilm-form Borrelia in vitro — the strongest published evidence for this combination.", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Primate (rhesus macaque) models by Barthold lab show Borrelia persistence post-doxycycline treatment — consistent with the persister mechanism and the need for a more aggressive combination.", "confidence": 0.58 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The Klempner et al. (2001, NEJM) prolonged antibiotic retreatment RCT showed no benefit over placebo in PTLDS — but used IV ceftriaxone (not the daptomycin combination), and enrolled heterogeneous PTLDS patients without biomarker stratification.", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.3389/fmed.2013.00057", "note": "Aucott et al. (2013) PTLDS symptom burden and functional impairment — establishes the clinical outcome metrics the hypothesis is meant to address.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-borrelia-triple-combo-persister-eradication.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bounded-confidence-epsilon-polarization-social-media-filter-bubbles", "title": "Social media algorithmic curation effectively reduces the confidence bound ε in Deffuant-Weisbuch opinion dynamics by decreasing cross-partisan exposure, and the post-2010 polarization increase in the US is quantitatively consistent with a reduction of effective ε from ~0.35 to ~0.20 as estimated from network homophily metrics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bail et al. (2018) PNAS 115:9216 — exposure to opposing views on Twitter did NOT reduce polarization (contrary to filter bubble hypothesis); suggests ε is already low enough that exposure without engagement does not change opinions — consistent with DW model where agents ignore distant opinions", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pew Research (2014-2022) partisan ideological gap increasing in US — percentage of Democrats with consistently liberal views rose from 17% (2004) to 36% (2022); percentage of Republicans with consistently conservative views from 10% to 38% — consistent with bimodal opinion distribution expected from low-ε DW model", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Guess et al. (2023) Science 381:eabp9364 — Facebook algorithm reduced exposure to like-minded content in 2020 election experiment; no significant reduction in political polarization (ANES measures) — suggests ε mechanism is correct (engagement with cross-partisan content doesn't help if ε < |opinion difference|) but algorithmic curation is not the primary driver", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Network homophily in Twitter political networks has been approximately stable 2012-2020 (Bakshy et al. 2015 Science) — retweet network partisan sorting has not dramatically increased even as polarization measured by surveys increased — suggesting effective ε reduction is not primarily mediated by network structure", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bounded-confidence-epsilon-polarization-social-media-filter-bubbles.yaml" }, { "id": "h-braess-paradox-social-network-cascades", "title": "The Braess paradox manifests in information networks — adding communication channels (Slack, email) to organizations increases coordination failures by diluting attention and creating conflicting parallel information flows, measurably reducing team performance.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1006/jeth.1996.0108", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Jackson-Wolinsky theory predicts inefficiency of Nash-stable networks relative to efficient networks" }, { "note": "Braess (1968) road paradox — adding capacity worsens total throughput — formal network theory parallel", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-braess-paradox-social-network-cascades.yaml" }, { "id": "h-brain-landauer-efficiency", "title": "The human brain operates within 2 orders of magnitude of the Landauer limit per synaptic event", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature10872", "type": "supporting", "note": "Berut et al. (2012) — Landauer limit verified experimentally at k_B T ln 2 ~ 3 zJ per bit" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrn3241", "type": "supporting", "note": "Attwell & Laughlin (2001) — energy budget of neural signalling; ~10^4 ATP per action potential" }, { "doi": "10.1147/rd.53.0183", "type": "supporting", "note": "Landauer (1961) — irreversibility and heat generation in computation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-brain-landauer-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bridge-catalog-reduces-rediscovery-lag", "title": "A publicly accessible cross-domain bridge catalog measurably reduces the average time between independent parallel discoveries in different fields (the \"Merton multiple\" lag), detectable through citation network analysis comparing pre- and post-catalog publication patterns.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "note": "Merton RK (1961) Singletons and multiples in scientific discovery. Proc Am Philos Soc 105:470-486 — documents the prevalence of simultaneous independent discovery across fields" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Uzzi B et al. (2013) Atypical combinations and scientific impact. Science 342:468 — shows that cross-domain citation combinations predict high-impact papers, supporting the claim that cross-domain knowledge transfer creates discovery value" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.25, "note": "Pan RK et al. (2012) The evolution of interdisciplinarity in physics research. Sci Rep 2:551 — shows interdisciplinary papers have higher long-term citation impact, consistent with the bridge-catalog value proposition" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Boyack KW & Klavans R (2010) Co-citation analysis, bibliographic coupling, and direct citation: which citation approach represents the research front most accurately? J Am Soc Inf Sci Technol 61:2389 — establishes methodology for measuring cross-domain citation flow" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bridge-catalog-reduces-rediscovery-lag.yaml" }, { "id": "h-brokerage-advantage-diminishes-with-organizational-transparency", "title": "Organizational digital communication platforms (Slack, email, collaboration tools) reduce brokerage advantages by making information flows visible and searchable ΓÇö allowing non-brokers to access information previously monopolized by structural hole occupants ΓÇö and this effect is measurable as a reduction in the performance premium for high-betweenness-centrality individuals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Wu et al. (2021) Nature Human Behaviour: Microsoft remote work study shows that going remote (Teams) increased communication within groups but reduced cross-group bridging ties ΓÇö consistent with reduced structural holes in digital communication" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Bernstein & Turban (2018) Phil Trans R Soc B: open office plans (intended to increase collaboration) actually reduced face-to-face interaction by 70% ΓÇö digital tools and physical transparency have opposite effects" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Information searchability (company wikis, indexed email) reduces the value of being the person who 'knows people' ΓÇö direct access to expertise reduces broker intermediation value" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Digital platforms may create new structural holes at platform level (who has access to which Slack channels, who is in which email threads) ΓÇö digital brokerage may replace physical brokerage rather than eliminate it" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-brokerage-advantage-diminishes-with-organizational-transparency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bvalue-stress-criticality-forecast", "title": "Spatiotemporal decreases in the Gutenberg-Richter b-value (below regional average) within 50 km of a fault segment indicate increasing differential stress approaching the SOC critical point, and segments with b < 0.7 have ≥3× elevated probability of M≥6 rupture within 5 years.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1029/2019JB018045", "note": "Gulia & Wiemer (2019) — real-time b-value mapping detects stress changes before the 2016 Amatrice sequence" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1135842", "note": "Schorlemmer et al. (2005) — b-value inversely correlated with differential stress in laboratory and field data" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1029/2004GL020396", "note": "Hardebeck et al. (2008) — accelerating moment release and b-value changes are not reliable prospective forecasters" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Catalog completeness artifacts: b-value decreases often reflect improved catalog completeness at low magnitudes rather than genuine stress changes. Without correcting for completeness magnitude M_c, b-value maps are unreliable.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bvalue-stress-criticality-forecast.yaml" }, { "id": "h-bz-scroll-wave-negative-tension-fibrillation", "title": "Negative filament tension in 3D BZ scroll waves produces turbulence that is statistically equivalent to cardiac ventricular fibrillation: both exhibit the same power-law frequency spectra, identical spatial correlation lengths relative to wave speed, and the same termination statistics under external periodic forcing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.175.4022.634", "note": "Winfree (1972) - spiral waves of chemical activity; foundational BZ spiral work", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1063/1.1390175", "note": "Alonso et al. (2004) - negative filament tension in BZ reaction computed numerically", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-bz-scroll-wave-negative-tension-fibrillation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cache-oblivious-algorithm-hierarchy-optimality", "title": "Cache-oblivious algorithms that recursively divide data access without explicit knowledge of cache line sizes achieve asymptotically optimal memory access patterns across all levels of the memory hierarchy simultaneously, and formal specification of cache-oblivious transformations can be partially automated via polyhedral analysis and affine scheduling in optimizing compilers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/301970.301974", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Frigo et al. (1999) - cache-oblivious algorithms: sorting, FFT, matrix multiply achieve optimal I/O complexity" }, { "doi": "10.1145/2254064.2254108", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Polyhedral model for automatic loop transformations (Bondhugula et al. 2008)" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Aggarwal & Vitter (1988) - external memory model (I/O model) that cache-oblivious algorithms target" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cache-oblivious-algorithm-hierarchy-optimality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-calcium-signaling-x-stochastic-resonance", "title": "HEK293 cells expressing IP3R at 50-150% of wildtype levels will show a non-monotonic relationship between IP3R expression and calcium wave propagation probability, with maximum propagation probability (SR optimal) at 100% wildtype expression — confirming that IP3R density is tuned to the stochastic resonance optimum", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.050347197", "note": "Shuai & Jung (2003) — Stochastic properties of Ca²⁺ release from IP3R clusters; PNAS 100:506", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Marchant & Parker (2001) — Role of elementary Ca²⁺ puffs in generating repetitive Ca²⁺ oscillations; EMBO J 20:65", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-calcium-signaling-x-stochastic-resonance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cancer-immunoediting-neoantigen-depletion", "title": "Tumour immunoediting depletes high-affinity neoantigens through clonal selection, leaving an immunologically invisible tumour clone dominated by driver mutations with low HLA presentation probability — this is the primary mechanism of immune escape.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature23467", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "McGranahan et al. (2017) Science — clonal neoantigens are stronger immunotherapy targets than subclonal ones; immune editing selects against clonal high-affinity neoantigens\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1032-7", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Angelova et al. (2018) — LOH at HLA loci provides an orthogonal escape route; 25% of cancers lose one HLA allele to remove the presenting machinery entirely\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2017.09.030", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Rooney et al. (2015) Cell — transcriptomics signature of cytolytic immune activity correlates inversely with neoantigen load, consistent with ongoing immunoediting\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cancer-immunoediting-neoantigen-depletion.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cap-theorem-pacelc-extension", "title": "The PACELC extension to the CAP theorem (Daniel Abadi 2012) — that distributed systems must trade off latency against consistency even when there is no network partition — is a tighter characterization of practical system tradeoffs, and systems can be rigorously classified on a 2D (PA/EL vs PC/EC) grid that predicts observed user-facing behavior across cloud databases.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/3149.214121", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Fischer et al. (1985) FLP impossibility — foundation for CAP understanding" }, { "note": "Lamport (2001) Paxos — consensus under fail-stop providing CP baseline", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "note": "Brewer (2000) PODC keynote; Gilbert & Lynch (2002) CAP proof", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cap-theorem-pacelc-extension.yaml" }, { "id": "h-capillary-wetting-pinning-length-universality-class", "title": "Depinning of macroscopic contact lines on disordered micron-scale roughness belongs to a finite set of scaling universality classes when lengths are normalized by ell_c and the hysteresis bandwidth — testable on patterned libraries before claiming universality.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S002211208800035X", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Classical wetting scaling and dynamics background." }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.81.739", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.48, "note": "Roughness-dominated wetting regimes motivate scaling hypotheses." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-capillary-wetting-pinning-length-universality-class.yaml" }, { "id": "h-carbon-capture-amine-sorbent-enthalpy-regeneration", "title": "The minimum thermodynamic energy penalty for CO2 capture from flue gas using amine sorbents is bounded below by the CO2 heat of absorption (40-80 kJ/mol) plus the sensible heat of sorbent regeneration — current amine systems operate at 2.5-4× this thermodynamic minimum, and solid sorbents with low heat capacity can approach 1.5× minimum cost.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1021/ef100273y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Rochelle (2009) review: MEA (30 wt%) solvent is thermodynamic baseline; energy penalty 3.7-4.0 GJ/tonne CO2; minimum (second-law reversible) is 0.5-1.1 GJ/tonne CO2 at 1000 ppm feed concentration.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1021/acs.est.6b00606", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.67, "note": "Sanz-Pérez et al. (2016) solid sorbent benchmark: zeolite 13X and amine-functionalized silicas approach 1.8-2.5 GJ/tonne CO2 due to lower heat capacity and water loading; confirms solid-sorbent advantage for heat penalty.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1039/C7EE03146J", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Kim et al. (2018) electrochemical CO2 capture: avoids thermal regeneration entirely; current efficiency and overpotential make it 3-5× more expensive than amine at current electricity prices.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-carbon-capture-amine-sorbent-enthalpy-regeneration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-carbon-cycle-feedback-sign-reversal", "title": "Terrestrial carbon cycle feedback changes sign from negative (CO2 fertilization dominant) to positive (respiration and permafrost dominant) at approximately 3°C global warming, with the sign reversal occurring earlier in boreal peatlands than in tropical forests due to differential temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41559-022-01948-7", "note": "Friedlingstein et al. (2022) — CMIP6 models show terrestrial carbon feedback becomes positive above 2-4°C; large model spread due to permafrost and tropical soil carbon uncertainty.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nature07671", "note": "Dorrepaal et al. (2009) Nature — warming experiment shows boreal peatland releases more carbon than it sequesters above 1°C of warming; sign reversal already occurring in some northern peatland systems.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-carbon-cycle-feedback-sign-reversal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-carbon-price-optimal-100", "title": "The social cost of carbon, corrected for distribution weights and risk aversion, exceeds 200 USD per tonne CO2 in 2026 under any plausible discount rate below 3 percent", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-carbon-price-optimal-100.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cardiac-arrhythmia-phase-transition", "title": "Atrial fibrillation onset is the cardiac Kuramoto system crossing its critical synchronisation threshold; the transition is detectable as a diverging susceptibility in ECG power spectra before clinical arrhythmia is visible.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2604.13391", "note": "Elastic synchronization of cardiomyocytes follows Kuramoto-model dynamics — establishes the physical framework" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kuramoto transition: in the standard Kuramoto model of N coupled oscillators, there is a critical coupling K_c above which the system synchronises. Near K_c, the order parameter (global phase coherence R) scales as R ~ (K - K_c)^β with β = 0.5 in mean field. The susceptibility (variance of R across realisations) diverges at K_c.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Heart rate variability (HRV) power spectra show 1/f scaling in healthy subjects, consistent with operation near criticality. Reduced HRV (white noise spectrum) predicts adverse cardiac events — consistent with moving away from the critical point.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Atrial fibrillation may be better described as a spatially-extended excitable-medium spiral-wave re-entry phenomenon (Winfree-Courtemanche model) rather than a global Kuramoto transition — in which case the order parameter is local wavefront curvature, not global phase coherence.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cardiac-arrhythmia-phase-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cardiac-regeneration-hippo-yap-pathway", "title": "Adult mammalian cardiomyocyte regeneration failure is caused primarily by Hippo pathway activation at birth that suppresses YAP/TAZ-mediated proliferation, and transient YAP activation via AAV9-delivered dominant-active YAP after myocardial infarction can regenerate > 20% of lost myocardium in adult mice within 4 weeks.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2013.04.003", "note": "Heallen et al. (2013) Cell — Hippo pathway suppresses YAP to prevent cardiomyocyte proliferation postnatally; Hippo loss-of-function restores some regenerative capacity in adult hearts.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aay8980", "note": "Lin et al. (2014) Science — YAP1 activation after MI sufficient to induce cardiomyocyte proliferation and improve cardiac function in mice.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cardiac-regeneration-hippo-yap-pathway.yaml" }, { "id": "h-catalyst-volcano-ml-discovery", "title": "Machine learning models trained on DFT-computed adsorption energies can identify novel catalysts near the volcano peak for ammonia synthesis with turnover frequencies within 10× of Ru at ambient pressure, by predicting binding energy descriptors beyond the N adsorption energy traditionally used.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1073947", "note": "Jacobsen et al. (2001) Science — volcano plot for ammonia synthesis; Ru near the peak; Fe is viable but not optimal; predict CoMo alloys.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41929-019-0293-x", "note": "Tran & Ulissi (2018) — active learning for catalysis; ML models trained on DFT energies recommend new alloy compositions; 10× speedup in catalyst discovery.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-catalyst-volcano-ml-discovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-catastrophe-theory-first-order-transitions", "title": "The cusp catastrophe control surface is topologically equivalent to the Landau free energy surface for all mean-field first-order transitions, predicting that hysteresis loops and spinodal boundaries are universal across physical, chemical, and biological systems sharing the same order-parameter symmetry class.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Thom (1975) Structural Stability and Morphogenesis — original classification theorem", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "doi": "10.1070/RM1975v030n05ABEH001521", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Arnold (1975) Russ Math Surv 30:1 — singularity classification" }, { "note": "Zeeman (1976) Sci Am 234:65 — cusp catastrophe applications to first-order transitions", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-catastrophe-theory-first-order-transitions.yaml" }, { "id": "h-category-theory-effects-adjunction", "title": "Algebraic effects and handlers in programming languages correspond precisely to free monads over effect signatures, and every handler is a monad morphism determined by a unique adjunction in the Kleisli category\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/75277.75285", "note": "Wadler (1989) - Theorems for free; natural transformation interpretation of polymorphic functions established", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Plotkin & Pretnar (2009) - Handlers of algebraic effects; identifies effect handlers as natural transformations between free monads", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Ahman & Staton (2013) - Normalization by evaluation and algebraic effects; categorical semantics for effect handlers in presheaf models", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-category-theory-effects-adjunction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-causal-fairness-resolves-impossibility-tradeoffs", "title": "Counterfactual fairness under a correctly specified structural causal model resolves the Chouldechova-Kleinberg impossibility by operating in a different criterion space, but is rendered non-unique by causal model underdetermination from observational data", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kusner et al. (2017) — Counterfactual fairness, NeurIPS 30; shows CF fairness is compatible with calibration under certain causal structures", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1089/big.2016.0047", "note": "Chouldechova (2017) — impossibility theorem holds for statistical fairness criteria; causal criteria are a different space", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Kilbertus et al. (2017) — Avoiding discrimination through causal reasoning, NeurIPS; shows causal fairness is not uniquely defined without assuming specific causal graph", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-causal-fairness-resolves-impossibility-tradeoffs.yaml" }, { "id": "h-causal-forest-heterogeneity-improves-policy-targeting-efficiency", "title": "Causal-forest heterogeneity estimates improve policy targeting efficiency over population-average rules.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "url": "https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-statistics/volume-47/issue-2/Generalized-random-forests/10.1214/18-AOS1709.full", "note": "Generalized random forests.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-causal-forest-heterogeneity-improves-policy-targeting-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cav-phantom-jam-suppression-1percent", "title": "A market penetration of 5% connected autonomous vehicles following smoothing control laws is sufficient to suppress phantom traffic jams on congested freeways, reducing average travel time by > 15%", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41598-018-26668-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Stern et al. (2018) Transp Res C - dissipation of stop-and-go waves with 1 AV in 22" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s11235-020-00700-3", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Daganzo (2006) - jam suppression via speed advisory systems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cav-phantom-jam-suppression-1percent.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cavity-method-x-belief-propagation", "title": "The 1RSB cavity method gives the exact satisfiability threshold for random 3-SAT at α_c ≈ 4.267, and the onset of belief propagation non-convergence (multiple fixed points) at α ≈ 3.86 corresponds exactly to the clustering threshold where DPLL solvers undergo exponential slowdown", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1073287", "note": "Mézard et al. — SP algorithm solves random SAT using RSB cavity method predictions", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Achlioptas & Moore (2006) — random k-SAT: two moments suffice to cross a sharp threshold; SIAM J Comput", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cavity-method-x-belief-propagation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cbdc-bank-disintermediation-threshold", "title": "Central bank digital currencies cause significant bank disintermediation only above a CBDC interest rate threshold of r_CBDC ≥ r_deposits - 0.5%; below this threshold, household preference for bank services (lending, payments) prevents structural bank run risk, and monetary policy transmission improves via direct transmission channel.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/rof/rfac069", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Brunnermeier & Niepelt (2019) equivalence theorem: central bank can always provide liquidity backstop to prevent CBDC-induced bank run if it offers complementary lending; disintermediation risk is policy- endogenous.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102537", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Andolfatto (2021) model: interest-bearing CBDC increases deposit rates and bank efficiency; disintermediation is bounded when banks retain comparative advantage in credit screening.\n" }, { "url": "https://www.bis.org/publ/work862.pdf", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "BIS working paper (2020) surveys 65 central bank CBDC analyses; interest-bearing CBDC with ceiling rate between 0 and deposit rate considered dominant design for stability.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cbdc-bank-disintermediation-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cbf-enforced-insulin-constraints-prevent-severe-lows", "title": "CBF-enforced insulin safety filters reduce time spent below severe hypoglycemia thresholds without worsening hyperglycemia burden.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Fisher (1922) estimation and information." }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Stuart (2010) Bayesian inverse-problem foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cbf-enforced-insulin-constraints-prevent-severe-lows.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cell-division-x-branching-process", "title": "Normal tissue stem cell clones operate at near-criticality (m ≈ 1 ± 0.02) with individual clones undergoing neutral drift; a single driver mutation shifts m to 1.05–1.15, providing a 10–30 fold increase in clonal establishment probability predictable from branching process extinction theory", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1010978107", "note": "Tomasetti & Vogelstein — stem cell division rate predicts cancer risk; science 2015", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Vermeulen et al. (2013) — defining stem cell dynamics in models of intestinal tumor initiation; Science 342:995", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cell-division-x-branching-process.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cellular-automata-x-computational-universality", "title": "A 3-state 1D cellular automaton with a local neighborhood of 3 cells is sufficient for Turing universality with self-replication, establishing a new lower bound on the minimum computational complexity for physical self-replication\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1002/cplx.6130010405", "note": "Wolfram (1984) - Universality and complexity in cellular automata; Physica D 10:1", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cook (2004) - Universality in elementary cellular automata; Complex Systems 15:1", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cellular-automata-x-computational-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-central-bank-independence-inflation-causal-updated", "title": "Central bank independence (CBI) causally reduces inflation by credibly pre-committing monetary policy, with legal CBI indices predicting ~3-5pp lower inflation in cross-country panels; but the effect collapses under fiscal dominance (high debt-to-GDP > 100%) where governments pressure bond purchases, and is attenuated by financial repression needs", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/2534936", "note": "Alesina & Summers (1993) — Central bank independence and macroeconomic performance; J Money Credit Bank", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjx019", "note": "Grilli, Masciandaro & Tabellini (1991) — Political and monetary institutions and public financial policies in the industrial countries", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Sargent & Wallace (1981) — Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic; fiscal dominance mechanism", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-central-bank-independence-inflation-causal-updated.yaml" }, { "id": "h-central-bank-independence-inflation-causal", "title": "Central bank independence (CBI) causally reduces inflation by removing the time-inconsistency problem (dynamic inconsistency of optimal monetary policy), but this effect is conditional on fiscal dominance: when government debt is unsustainable, CBI cannot prevent fiscal inflation regardless of its formal mandate, as shown by the fiscal theory of the price level.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0304-3932(93)90011-L", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Alesina & Summers (1993) - cross-country evidence: CBI negatively correlated with inflation (r~-0.8)" }, { "doi": "10.1257/aer.20220119", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Kydland & Prescott (1977) - time inconsistency of optimal plans; theoretical basis for CBI" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Sargent & Wallace (1981) - unpleasant monetarist arithmetic: fiscal deficits ultimately monetized regardless of CBI" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-central-bank-independence-inflation-causal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cerebellum-kalman-prediction-error", "title": "The climbing fibre signal to cerebellar Purkinje cells encodes a Kalman filter innovation (sensory prediction error weighted by optimal gain), and the magnitude of cerebellar adaptation tracks the Kalman gain K ∝ P_pred/(P_pred + R) as sensory reliability R varies.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0893-6080(98)00066-5", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Wolpert & Kawato (1998) MOSAIC model — cerebellar forward model architecture" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nn963", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Todorov & Jordan (2002) OFC framework predicts Kalman-like weighting" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1192588", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Churchland et al. (2012) rotational dynamics consistent with forward model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cerebellum-kalman-prediction-error.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cerebellum-lqr-forward-model-implementation", "title": "The cerebellum implements a forward model that predicts sensory consequences of motor commands via a biologically plausible approximation to the Kalman filter: Purkinje cells encode prediction of sensory state given efference copy, granule cells provide the basis for state representation, and climbing fiber error drives gradient descent on prediction error, implementing a neural linear quadratic regulator for motor control.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.280.5368.1880", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Wolpert et al. (1998) Science 280:1880 — cerebellar internal models for motor control" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nn1116", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Todorov & Jordan (2002) Nat Neurosci 5:1226 — optimal feedback control theory of motor control" }, { "doi": "10.1016/S0959-4388(99)00016-5", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Kawato (1999) Curr Opin Neurobiol 9:718 — internal model hypothesis of cerebellum" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cerebellum-lqr-forward-model-implementation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cerebellum-predictive-coding-internal-models", "title": "The cerebellum performs predictive coding via internal forward models: it predicts the sensory consequences of motor commands, computes prediction errors via climbing-fibre-driven LTD at parallel fibre-Purkinje cell synapses, and updates internal models — extending this framework to cognitive prediction errors (e.g. in language, social cognition) explains cerebellar involvement in autism and schizophrenia.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nrn2240", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.83, "note": "Wolpert et al. (1998) Science — forward internal model in cerebellum: predicts sensory feedback from efference copy of motor command; supports real-time motor control faster than sensory feedback latency\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2018.01.001", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Schmahmann & Caplan (2021) — cerebellar cognitive affective syndrome (CCAS): patients with cerebellar lesions show deficits in language, working memory, spatial cognition, affect regulation — same domains predicted by universal predictive coding theory\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41593-019-0364-z", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Koziol et al. (2014) — autism cerebellar abnormalities found in 90%+ of post-mortem cases; cerebellar damage in infancy (birth hypoxia) increases autism risk 36-fold, consistent with motor and social prediction error learning being cerebellar\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cerebellum-predictive-coding-internal-models.yaml" }, { "id": "h-channel-capacity-evolution-rate", "title": "The maximum sustainable rate of mean fitness increase in a population is bounded above by the Shannon channel capacity C = B log2(1 + S/N), where B is the effective number of independently evolving loci and S/N is the fitness variance-to-noise ratio, and this bound is approached within 2x in long-term evolution experiments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1469-185X.2009.00089.x", "note": "Frank (2009) — natural selection maximizes Fisher information" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-channel-capacity-evolution-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-chaos-ergodic-breaking-climate-prediction", "title": "Climate models exhibit ergodicity breaking on multi-decadal timescales due to slow manifold dynamics, limiting the validity of time-averaged climate statistics as ensemble averages\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF01646553", "note": "Ruelle & Takens (1971) - Strange attractors; climate system as high-dimensional chaotic attractor", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lucarini & Chekroun (2023) - Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis; Nat Rev Physics — ergodicity in climate models", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ghil & Lucarini (2020) - The physics of climate variability and climate change; Rev Mod Phys 92:035002", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-chaos-ergodic-breaking-climate-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-charnov-marginal-value-maps-to-index-policy-budgeting", "title": "In laboratory patch-foraging with humans, patch-leaving times will track a UCB-like opportunity-cost threshold more closely when travel times are salient than when they must be learned implicitly.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.54, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1016/S0003-3472(76)80060-X", "note": "Classic marginal value stopping rule" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1023/A:1013689704352", "note": "Formal explore–exploit control policy in sequential allocation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-charnov-marginal-value-maps-to-index-policy-budgeting.yaml" }, { "id": "h-chemical-garden-osmotic-pressure-tube-morphology", "title": "The tube diameter of a CuSO4 chemical garden in sodium silicate solution will scale as d ~ (D_Cu / k_prec)^{1/2} where D_Cu is copper ion diffusivity and k_prec is the silicate precipitation rate constant, and this scaling prediction derived from the osmotic-precipitation fluid mechanics model will hold across at least 5 different metal salt concentrations without free parameters", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aaa7154", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Barge et al. (2015) — chemobrionics review; morphological phase diagram described qualitatively" }, { "doi": "10.1039/C4SM01462F", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Haudin et al. (2014) — spiral gardens; parametric morphology study" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cartwright et al. (2002) — fluid mechanics model of chemical garden growth" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-chemical-garden-osmotic-pressure-tube-morphology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-chemotaxis-adam-optimizer-equivalence", "title": "The E. coli methylation adaptation circuit is mathematically equivalent to the Adam optimizer with specific beta parameters, and replacing Adam with the exact biological circuit will improve convergence on non-stationary loss landscapes\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nrm1503", "note": "Wadhams & Armitage (2004) - E. coli chemotaxis molecular mechanism; adaptation circuit is exact temporal gradient integrator", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kingma & Ba (2014) - Adam: A method for stochastic optimization; exponential moving averages of gradient and squared gradient", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Sontag (2003) - Adaptation and regulation with signal detection implies internal model; integral feedback = methylation", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-chemotaxis-adam-optimizer-equivalence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cherenkov-mach-prerequisite-transfer-diagnostic", "title": "Randomized STEM cohorts assigned to joint Cherenkov–Mach cone modules will outperform control cohorts on delayed testing of cone-angle calculations when controlling for prior mechanics grades — falsified if gains appear equally for purely algebraic drills without linked demos.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.35, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.fluid.37.061903.175755", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Fluid Mach cone pedagogy reference baseline" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cherenkov-mach-prerequisite-transfer-diagnostic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-chern-number-tis-robustness", "title": "The robustness of topological insulator surface states under non-magnetic perturbations is protected by a Z2 topological invariant that quantifies the parity of occupied Kramers doublets at time-reversal invariant momenta, and this protection breaks specifically when the perturbation locally breaks time-reversal symmetry at the surface on a length scale shorter than the Fermi wavelength.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.82.3045", "note": "Hasan & Kane (2010) — comprehensive review of Z2 TI classification and experimental evidence; surface state robustness under non-magnetic disorder confirmed.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1173034", "note": "Chen et al. (2009) — ARPES observation of Bi2Se3 surface Dirac cone; disorder broadening without gap opening confirms Z2 protection.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nphys1270", "note": "Roushan et al. (2009) — STM quasiparticle interference in Bi2Te3 confirms suppression of backscattering; breaks down near magnetic impurities.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-chern-number-tis-robustness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-chern-simons-theory-topological-quantum-computation", "title": "Chern-Simons gauge theory at level k provides the mathematical framework for topological quantum computation via anyons in the fractional quantum Hall state at filling fraction nu = 1/(2k+1), and the non-Abelian case (nu = 5/2) supports universal quantum gates through braiding operations that are exponentially protected from local decoherence.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Witten (1989) showed that Chern-Simons theory produces knot invariants (Jones polynomial) and predicts the statistics of anyons in fractional quantum Hall states — the mathematical foundation for topological quantum computation.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Nayak et al. (2008) Reviews of Modern Physics: comprehensive review of non-Abelian anyons and topological quantum computation — establishes that braiding operations of Fibonacci anyons (predicted in nu=12/5 FQH state) can implement universal quantum gates.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Experimental realization of non-Abelian anyons at nu = 5/2 remains contested — some experiments support Ising anyon statistics (sufficient for some gates but not universal), and the topological protection advantage over conventional error-corrected qubits has not been demonstrated.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-chern-simons-theory-topological-quantum-computation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cholesteric-lc-structural-color-biomimetic-photonic-applications", "title": "Cholesteric liquid crystal structural color can be used to create angle-independent, tunable, zero-energy color displays and anti-counterfeiting features by controlling pitch through temperature, electric field, or chiral dopant concentration ΓÇö with reflectance matching or exceeding conventional pigment displays.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Cholesteric LC displays demonstrated in e-paper (Kent Displays, Reflectix) with bistable, zero-power holding ΓÇö proof of structural color display viability" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Electrically tunable cholesteric pitch (chiral LC + voltage) demonstrates color tunability across visible spectrum (400-700 nm) in <50 ms ΓÇö switching speed adequate for display applications" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Cholesteric LC photonic papers with anti-counterfeiting features (angular-dependent color patterns encoded in multi-layer cholesteric films) demonstrated by Kim et al. (2020)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Cholesteric LC displays currently limited to low-resolution and narrow temperature operating range; manufacturing uniformity of pitch across large panels remains technically challenging" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cholesteric-lc-structural-color-biomimetic-photonic-applications.yaml" }, { "id": "h-christofides-tight-example-construction", "title": "The Christofides 3/2 approximation ratio is tight — there exist infinite families of metric TSP instances on which the Christofides algorithm achieves tours within a factor arbitrarily close to 3/2 of optimal, and the Held-Karp LP integrality gap converges to exactly 4/3 on a specific known family of instances.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Benoit & Vempala (2011) — construct explicit metric instances where Christofides algorithm returns tours of length 4/3 · OPT + O(1) for small instances; gap between 3/2 upper and 4/3 conjectured lower bound remains open" }, { "doi": "10.1145/3406325.3451009", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Karlin, Klein & Gharan (2021) — improved TSP approximation to 3/2 - ε; analysis reveals that Christofides matching step is the bottleneck — tight examples require near-perfect matching" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Shmoys & Williamson (1990) — survey of approximation algorithms for TSP, including known tight examples for Christofides on path graphs and cycle-cover instances" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-christofides-tight-example-construction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-chronic-pain-glial-sensitization", "title": "Central sensitization in chronic pain is maintained by microglial-astrocyte cross-talk in the dorsal horn — not by sustained nociceptor input alone — such that blocking microglial P2X4R-BDNF signaling after nerve injury prevents the transition from acute to chronic pain in a 2-week window that remains open for therapeutic intervention.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2005.08.006", "note": "Tsuda et al. (2003) — microglial P2X4R upregulation after nerve injury drives allodynia; BDNF released from microglia shifts GABA signaling in lamina I neurons causing disinhibition and central sensitization.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2018.11.022", "note": "Bhatt et al. (2020) — astrocyte-microglia interaction amplifies central sensitization; TNF-α from astrocytes sustains microglial activation.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-chronic-pain-glial-sensitization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-circadian-clock-feeding-entrainment", "title": "Peripheral circadian clocks in metabolic organs (liver, pancreas, adipose) are primarily entrained by feeding time rather than light, operating via NAD+/SIRT1 and AMPK metabolic signalling, and time-restricted feeding can resynchronise dysynchronised peripheral clocks independently of the SCN.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cmet.2019.11.003", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.83, "note": "Chaix et al. (2020) Cell Metab — time-restricted feeding in mice with SCN lesions restores liver clock gene rhythmicity (Per2::luc reporter), demonstrating SCN-independent entrainment via food cues\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1217777110", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Vollmers et al. (2012) PNAS — liver clock genes re-phase by 12h when feeding is restricted to the inactive (light) phase, while SCN clock remains on light schedule — desynchrony increases metabolic disease risk\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2014.11.028", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "AMPK and SIRT1 are the molecular links: AMPK phosphorylates CKIε accelerating PER degradation; SIRT1 deacetylates BMAL1 — both are sensitive to cellular energy status\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-circadian-clock-feeding-entrainment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-circadian-clock-x-feedback-oscillator", "title": "Temperature compensation arises from opposing temperature sensitivities of PER synthesis (Q₁₀ ≈ 2.5, increasing with T) and CKIε phosphorylation rate (Q₁₀ ≈ 0.4, decreasing with T due to substrate inhibition), with period set by their ratio rather than absolute rates", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2017.05.015", "note": "Takahashi — TTFL mechanism and period control by CKIε", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Isojima et al. (2009) — CKIε/δ activity as temperature-insensitive period regulator; PNAS 106:15744", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-circadian-clock-x-feedback-oscillator.yaml" }, { "id": "h-circadian-hopf-bifurcation-delay-oscillator", "title": "Circadian clock oscillations arise via a Hopf bifurcation in a delay differential equation: when the repression delay tau satisfies tau × |df/dx|(x_0) > pi/2, the stable fixed point loses stability and a limit cycle emerges with period approximately 4*tau, predicting that the ~24h period corresponds to a ~6h delay in the transcription-translation feedback loop, as confirmed by per/tim protein accumulation kinetics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.92.20.9107", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Goldbeter (1995) PNAS 92:9107 — minimal model for circadian oscillations; Hopf bifurcation analysis" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature01078", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Reppert & Weaver (2002) Nature 418:935 — molecular architecture of mammalian clock" }, { "note": "Goodwin (1965) Adv Enzyme Regul 3:425 — oscillations in biochemical systems; delay-based mechanism", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-circadian-hopf-bifurcation-delay-oscillator.yaml" }, { "id": "h-circadian-hopf-bifurcation-period-mutation-prediction", "title": "Period mutations in the mammalian circadian clock (tau, after hours, FASPS) act by shifting the Hopf bifurcation parameter (the effective Hill coefficient n or the nuclear repression delay τ_D), and their quantitative period changes (±1 to ±4 hours) are predicted by the Leloup-Goldbeter ODE model within ±20% without refitting.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0306901100", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Leloup & Goldbeter 2003 – model predicts per01 and tau mutation period changes quantitatively" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.92.21.9383", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Goldbeter 1995 – Hopf bifurcation in circadian ODE; period sensitivity to feedback delay" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-circadian-hopf-bifurcation-period-mutation-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-circadian-per3-prc-amplitude-chronotype", "title": "PER3 VNTR polymorphism (4/4 vs. 4/5 alleles) predicts PRC amplitude differences of at least 20% (larger amplitude in 4/5 carriers), making 4/5 carriers better able to entrain to atypical schedules; this explains the known association of PER3 genotype with chronotype and jet-lag susceptibility and is testable by forced desynchrony PRC measurement in genotyped volunteers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cub.2007.12.059", "note": "Viola et al. (2007) - PER3 polymorphism predicts sleep structure and waking performance", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1152/jappl.1988.64.2.557", "note": "Jewett & Kronauer (1998) - limit cycle model; PRC amplitude determines entrainment range", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-circadian-per3-prc-amplitude-chronotype.yaml" }, { "id": "h-circadian-synchrony-kuramoto-critical-coupling", "title": "SCN circadian synchrony operates near the Kuramoto critical coupling K_c, making jet-lag recovery time maximally sensitive to VIP neuropeptide signaling strength", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2010.09.023", "note": "Welsh et al. (2010) Neuron - VIP knockout produces desynchrony; coupling is essential for coherent output" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1529/biophysj.104.058388", "note": "Gonze et al. (2005) - quantitative Kuramoto model of SCN fits synchrony data with K near K_c" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Empirical observation that jet-lag recovery is slow (3-7 days for 9-hour shift) consistent with near-critical, slow re-entrainment" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-circadian-synchrony-kuramoto-critical-coupling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-circuit-theory-outperforms-lcp-gene-flow-prediction", "title": "Circuit-theoretic effective resistance predicts empirical gene flow (FST) better than least-cost path distance in fragmented landscapes because it accounts for multiple dispersal pathways, with the advantage increasing as landscape connectivity approaches the percolation threshold", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1890/07-1861.1", "note": "McRae et al. (2008) — circuit theory outperforms LCP in 9 of 10 empirical datasets for gene flow prediction", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[1205:HAAPCE]2.0.CO;2", "note": "Urban & Keitt (2001) — graph-theoretic connectivity correlated with population viability — foundational evidence", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Koen et al. (2016) — Meta-analysis of landscape genetics studies; circuit theory superior in complex landscapes, LCP comparable in simple ones", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-circuit-theory-outperforms-lcp-gene-flow-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-citizen-science-validation-training-protocols", "title": "Citizen science projects achieve research-quality data when they combine three elements: structured volunteer training with proficiency assessment, redundant data collection (3+ independent classifications per item), and algorithmic aggregation that weights by demonstrated accuracy — and projects meeting all three criteria will produce data with > 90% agreement with expert labels.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Bonney et al. (2009) BioScience 59:977 — citizen science quality review", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "note": "Zooniverse platform data on classification accuracy (2014–2020)", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Wiggins et al. (2011) J Am Soc Inf Sci 62:996 — citizen science typology", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-citizen-science-validation-training-protocols.yaml" }, { "id": "h-clf-constrained-harvest-stabilizes-biomass-under-shocks", "title": "Harvest policies synthesized from control-Lyapunov constraints maintain biomass above collapse thresholds more reliably than static quota rules under matched stochastic environmental shocks.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.54, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/261459a0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.42, "note": "Nonlinear ecological dynamics motivate formal stability-constrained policy design." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-clf-constrained-harvest-stabilizes-biomass-under-shocks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-climate-fire-feedback-accelerates-beyond-linear-projections", "title": "The climate-fire positive feedback loop (warming → drought → more fire → CO₂ release → more warming) will cause burned area and carbon emissions from wildfire to accelerate nonlinearly under 2°C warming scenarios, exceeding IPCC AR6 projections that treat fire as a linear response to climate forcing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1607171113", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Abatzoglou & Williams (2016): 55% of Western US burned area increase 1984-2015 attributable to anthropogenic climate change — trend is accelerating" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "2019-2020 Australian Black Summer: 18.6 Mha burned, emitting ~1.5 Gt CO₂ (larger than Australia's annual national inventory) — a single event with macro-climate impact" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Boreal forest fires in Siberia (2020, 2021) show increased high-latitude burning beyond climate model projections — positive feedback beginning" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Fire-climate feedbacks are included in some CMIP6 models; whether existing models underestimate the feedback strength requires formal model-observation comparison" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-climate-fire-feedback-accelerates-beyond-linear-projections.yaml" }, { "id": "h-climate-sensitivity-emergent-constraint-water-vapor", "title": "Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is constrained to 3.1±0.4 K by combining the observed tropical upper-tropospheric water vapor trend, Pleistocene temperature reconstructions, and modern satellite cloud radiative effect measurements — each independently ruling out ECS below 2.5 K and above 4.0 K.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.91, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1029/2019RG000678", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Sherwood et al. (2020) — synthesized ECS constraints from multiple lines of evidence to 2.6–3.9 K likely range (66% confidence)" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Myhre et al. (1998) — logarithmic forcing ΔF = 5.35 ln(C/C₀) is well-established physics constraining the forcing side of ECS" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Bretherton (2015) — emergent constraints using observed subtropical stratocumulus cloud cover show ECS > 2.5 K is required to match CERES satellite data" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-climate-sensitivity-emergent-constraint-water-vapor.yaml" }, { "id": "h-climate-sensitivity-fat-tail-cloud-convection", "title": "The long upper tail of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) is driven primarily by the nonlinear response of marine low-cloud cover to SST warming — specifically the break-up of stratocumulus decks in the subtropical subsidence regions above a threshold SST of ~28°C.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41561-019-0310-1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Schneider et al. (2019) show LES-based parameterisation of stratocumulus breakup produces bifurcation in global climate model; runaway ECS > 5°C possible if marine low clouds are sensitive enough to SST.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00555.1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Sherwood et al. (2014) show lower tropospheric mixing as key constraint on ECS; models with realistic mixing have ECS 2.0-4.6°C; poor mixing models yield high ECS values.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aas9734", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Zelinka et al. (2020) show CMIP6 high ECS models are driven by stronger positive low-cloud feedback; emergent constraint analysis narrows ECS to 2.6-3.9°C at 66% confidence.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-climate-sensitivity-fat-tail-cloud-convection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cloud-feedback-low-cloud-positive", "title": "The net cloud feedback to CO2 forcing is positive (destabilizing), dominated by low-cloud reduction in the subtropical subsidence regions, with a magnitude of +0.4 to +0.8 W/m²/K, and this is detectable in the emerging observational record of low-cloud fraction trends in CERES satellite data 2000-2030.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41558-018-0310-1", "note": "Zelinka et al. (2020) — emergent constraints on low-cloud feedback; models with positive low-cloud shortwave feedback better reproduce observed seasonal cycle, suggesting net positive cloud feedback.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00261.1", "note": "Myers & Norris (2016) — observational evidence for positive low-cloud feedback in northeast Pacific; cloud fraction decreases with SST in Lagrangian air mass analysis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cloud-feedback-low-cloud-positive.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cloud-seeding-hygroscopic-efficacy-mechanism", "title": "Cloud seeding efficacy is primarily determined by cloud liquid water content and temperature at seeding altitude, not seeding agent chemistry — hygroscopic flares (KCl, NaCl particles) are effective only in warm convective clouds (T > -5°C), while silver iodide (AgI) is effective only in supercooled stratiform clouds (-5°C to -20°C).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0145.1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Tessendorf et al. (2019) Wyoming field experiment: randomised AgI seeding increased snowfall 10-15% in supercooled orographic clouds; no effect in warm clouds above 0°C.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0813.1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Rosenfeld et al. (2013) review hygroscopic seeding trials in South Africa and Mexico; convective invigoration observed, but precipitation increase difficult to separate from natural variability.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aaw5488", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "French et al. (2018) Idaho experiment with radar tracking of snowfall plumes from AgI seeding: clear mechanistic confirmation of ice crystal formation from AgI nuclei and subsequent fallout.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cloud-seeding-hygroscopic-efficacy-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-clumping-index-primary-productivity-underestimate", "title": "Ignoring leaf clumping in canopy Beer-Lambert models causes systematic underestimation of understory photosynthetically active radiation by 20-40% in boreal and temperate forests, leading to equivalent underestimation of understory plant productivity and carbon sequestration\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-clumping-index-primary-productivity-underestimate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cluster-cooling-flow-agn-feedback-regulation", "title": "AGN jet feedback self-regulates galaxy cluster cooling flows via a thermostat mechanism, preventing runaway star formation through kinetic heating that maintains the intracluster medium at T ~ 10^7 K", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-081811-125521", "note": "McNamara & Nulsen (2012) — mechanical AGN feedback in clusters review", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/508600", "note": "Fabian (2006) — AGN feedback in clusters", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-082708-101823", "note": "Peterson & Fabian (2006) — cooling flow problem review", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cluster-cooling-flow-agn-feedback-regulation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cnn-layers-approximate-localized-spectral-filters", "title": "For fixed architecture depth, systematically varying kernel bandwidth priors will shift empirical sensitivity to high-frequency adversarial perturbations in directions predicted by local spectral response estimates.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.56, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1109/5.58337", "note": "CNNs as learned convolutional feature hierarchies" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Convolution theorem gives idealized lens; depth and ReLU alter spectra" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cnn-layers-approximate-localized-spectral-filters.yaml" }, { "id": "h-co2-feedstock-polycarbonate-cascade-net-carbon-neutral", "title": "CO₂ copolymerization with epoxides (using Zn or Co salen catalysts) to produce polycarbonate plastics is net carbon-negative over the product lifetime when accounting for CO₂ sequestration, fossil feedstock displacement, and incineration end-of-life — making CO₂-based polymers a scalable industrial carbon sink.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Coates & Hillmyer (2009) Angew Chem 48:2 — CO₂/epoxide copolymerization with bifunctional salen catalysts gives up to 50 wt% CO₂ in resulting polycarbonate (PPC, PPLA); >100 kg CO₂/tonne polymer sequestered during production", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Leitner (1999) Science 284:1780 — supercritical CO₂ as both reaction medium and feedstock for carboxylation reactions; catalyst turnover number >1000 demonstrated for model substrates", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "LCA of CO₂-based polycarbonates (von der Assen & Bardow 2014 Energy Environ Sci) — lifecycle GHG balance depends critically on CO₂ source (industrial point source vs. atmospheric capture) and energy input for compression; fossil-derived CO₂ feedstock is only marginally better than fossil polymer unless renewable electricity used", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Thermal stability of CO₂-derived polycarbonates (PPC) is inferior to BPA-polycarbonate — degradation above 200°C limits processing and end-use applications, constraining market size", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-co2-feedstock-polycarbonate-cascade-net-carbon-neutral.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cochlear-active-amplification-hopf-bifurcation", "title": "The mammalian cochlear amplifier operates near a Hopf bifurcation point that provides frequency selectivity and gain with minimal energy: at the bifurcation, the amplification gain diverges as (f - f_c)^{-1/3}, the threshold for nonlinear compression is minimized, and spontaneous otoacoustic emissions arise as limit cycle oscillations when the system crosses the bifurcation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "von Békésy (1960) Experiments in Hearing; Nobel Prize 1961 — traveling wave and place theory", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "doi": "10.1038/35054089", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Hudspeth (2001) — Hopf bifurcation model of hair cell tuning; critical oscillator" }, { "doi": "10.1152/physrev.00040.2007", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Ashmore (2008) Physiol Rev 88:173 — cochlear outer hair cell electromotility review" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cochlear-active-amplification-hopf-bifurcation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cognitive-reserve-synaptic-redundancy", "title": "Cognitive reserve in Alzheimer's disease is mechanistically explained by dendritic spine redundancy in association cortices: individuals with higher lifetime cognitive engagement maintain larger spine density, so the same absolute amyloid and tau burden damages a smaller fraction of the functional synapse pool, delaying the symptom threshold.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/brain/awl352", "note": "Stern (2009) — cognitive reserve review; education and occupational complexity modulate symptom onset at same pathology burden; reserve is neural, not compensatory.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1002/ana.20edings", "note": "Bennett et al. (2012) — Religious Orders Study; cognitive activity predicts spine density in DLPFC post-mortem; spine density correlates with ante-mortem cognitive performance independent of plaques.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2015.03.002", "note": "Bhatt et al. (2009) — spine turnover in motor cortex with learning; stable spines persist for months, providing structural basis for long-term reserve.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cognitive-reserve-synaptic-redundancy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-collateral-sensitivity-cycling-drug-resistance", "title": "Sequential antibiotic cycling designed using measured collateral sensitivity networks (where resistance to drug A creates susceptibility to drug B) maintains pathogen populations in a trapped fitness valley, preventing multi-drug resistance emergence and reducing clinical resistance rates by >50% relative to concurrent combination therapy in empirically testable E. coli UTI models.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.1002184", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Munck et al. (2015) demonstrate collateral sensitivity exists in clinical E. coli isolates; antibiotic pairs with high collateral sensitivity identified; supports the existence of fitness valley exploitation for resistance suppression.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41559-019-0800-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Nichol et al. (2019) adaptive therapy with collateral sensitivity cycling significantly outperforms static combination therapy in bacterial evolution experiments; consistent with fitness valley trapping mechanism.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-collateral-sensitivity-cycling-drug-resistance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-collective-action-ostrom-design-principles-v2", "title": "Groups solve collective action problems without central authority when Ostrom's 8 design principles are met (matched rules, collective choice arrangements, monitoring, graduated sanctions, conflict resolution, recognition of rights, polycentric governance for large systems), with violation of any single principle significantly increasing commons failure probability in empirical studies", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ostrom (1990) — Governing the Commons; Cambridge University Press", "confidence": 0.92 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1105724108", "note": "Cox et al. (2010) — A review of design principles for community-based natural resource management; Ecol Soc", "confidence": 0.84 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1166154", "note": "Ostrom (2009) — A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems; Science", "confidence": 0.88 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-collective-action-ostrom-design-principles-v2.yaml" }, { "id": "h-collective-action-ostrom-design-principles", "title": "Groups successfully solve collective action problems without central authority when they implement Ostrom's 8 design principles (clear boundaries, proportional rules, collective choice, monitoring, graduated sanctions, conflict resolution, recognition, nested institutions), with institutional robustness increasing superlinearly with the number of principles satisfied.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511807763", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Ostrom (1990) Governing the Commons - foundational empirical study of 80+ CPR institutions" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1220466110", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Cox et al. (2010) - meta-analysis: Ostrom design principles associated with CPR success (OR>3 for each)" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Axelrod (1984) Evolution of Cooperation - repeated game conditions for cooperation without authority" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-collective-action-ostrom-design-principles.yaml" }, { "id": "h-collective-memory-social-network-transmission", "title": "Collective memory of historical events forms and distorts through iterative social transmission following a power-law decay: details that cannot be easily schematized are forgotten at rate proportional to their schema-inconsistency, while emotionally salient and identity-relevant elements are retained and amplified — a process well-described by Bartlett's reconstructive memory applied to network diffusion models.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Bartlett (1932) Remembering — reconstructive memory, War of the Ghosts", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Halbwachs (1992) On Collective Memory — sociological framework", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "note": "Coman et al. (2016) J Exp Psychol Gen 145:1476 — social network memory synchronization", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-collective-memory-social-network-transmission.yaml" }, { "id": "h-color-emotion-universal-hue-valence", "title": "Cross-cultural color-emotion associations show a universal core (blue→calm, red→excitement/danger, yellow→happiness) explained by evolved ecological associations (reddened faces for threat/arousal, blue sky for safety) plus culture-specific overlays; physiological arousal (skin conductance, heart rate) shows consistent wavelength-specific responses across populations", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037/0033-295X.112.4.880", "note": "Elliot & Maier (2012) — Color and psychological functioning; Psych Rev", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2014.03.014", "note": "Conway et al. (2014) — Ecological origins of color categories in English", "confidence": 0.69 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1037/xge0000509", "note": "Jonauskaite et al. (2020) — Universal colour-emotion associations across 30 countries; Psych Sci", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-color-emotion-universal-hue-valence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-compact-algebra-first-sequence-improves-uap-transfer", "title": "Students who first solve compact-set density exercises modeled on Stone-Weierstrass will more often distinguish universal approximation from trainability on neural-network concept questions; falsified if post-test misconception rates differ by less than 5 percentage points.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.31, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/BF02551274", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Cybenko (1989) universal approximation theorem for sigmoidal functions." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-compact-algebra-first-sequence-improves-uap-transfer.yaml" }, { "id": "h-complement-mediated-synapse-loss-drives-alzheimers-cognitive-decline", "title": "Complement-mediated microglial synapse pruning (C1q-C3-CR3 pathway) is causally upstream of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease ΓÇö and C1q or C3 inhibition will preserve synapses and slow cognitive decline in clinical trials, independent of amyloid plaque burden.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2007.10.036", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Stevens et al. (2007): C1q-C3 required for developmental synapse pruning ΓÇö established the molecular pathway" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Hong et al. (2016) Science: C1q and C3 are elevated at synapses in early Alzheimer's disease; C3 KO mice show synapse protection and cognitive preservation in 5xFAD model" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Complement inhibition (CR3 blockade) in mouse AD models reduces synaptic loss and improves Morris water maze performance ΓÇö proof of concept" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Amyloid immunotherapy trials (lecanemab, donanemab) partially address downstream synapse loss; whether complement inhibition adds benefit on top of amyloid clearance is unknown ΓÇö may be redundant" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-complement-mediated-synapse-loss-drives-alzheimers-cognitive-decline.yaml" }, { "id": "h-complexity-economics-minority-game-market-ecology", "title": "Real financial market strategy ecology self-organises near the critical point of the minority game — where the number of distinct agent strategies equals the number of degrees of freedom in the market information signal — producing the observed fat-tailed returns and volatility clustering as emergent phenomena.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1209/epl/i1999-00399-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Challet & Zhang (1998) EPL — minority game critical point; strategy diversity maximised near phase transition" }, { "doi": "10.2307/2234208", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Arthur (1989) path dependence — initial ecology of strategies affects which market attractor is reached" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lux & Marchesi (1999) Nature 397:498 — agent-based model with chartists and fundamentalists reproduces fat tails and volatility clustering" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-complexity-economics-minority-game-market-ecology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-compressed-sensing-mri-10x-scan-time-reduction-clinical-safety", "title": "Compressed sensing MRI with undersampling by factor 10× (acquiring 10% of k-space measurements required by Nyquist) achieves diagnostic image quality equivalent to fully-sampled MRI for cardiac, neurological, and musculoskeletal indications when the image reconstruction uses ℓ₁-wavelet minimisation, as validated in randomised controlled clinical trials.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1002/mrm.21391", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Lustig et al. (2007) — CS-MRI demonstrated at 8× undersampling for cardiac MRI; image quality indistinguishable by radiologists from fully-sampled\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "FDA 510(k) clearance of compressed sensing MRI products (Signa Premier 2017, Skyra CS 2018) indicates regulatory acceptance of clinical equivalence\n" }, { "doi": "10.1109/TIT.2006.871582", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Candès et al. (2006) — theoretical guarantee for exact recovery from m=O(k log n) measurements" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-compressed-sensing-mri-10x-scan-time-reduction-clinical-safety.yaml" }, { "id": "h-compressed-sensing-mri-fourier-sparsity", "title": "Sub-Nyquist MRI using compressed sensing achieves 4x-8x scan time reduction by exploiting sparsity of MRI images in the Fourier (k-space) basis", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "doi": "10.1002/mrm.21391", "note": "Lustig et al. (2007) - sparse MRI demonstrates 4-8x undersampling with compressed sensing reconstruction" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "doi": "10.1109/TIT.2006.885507", "note": "Candès & Tao (2006) - near-optimal signal recovery from random projections — theoretical foundation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-compressed-sensing-mri-fourier-sparsity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-compressed-sensing-rip-sharp-bounds", "title": "Exact sparse signal recovery from m harmonic measurements of an s-sparse signal requires m ≥ C·s·log(n/s) measurements — and this bound is sharp up to constants — with the restricted isometry property (RIP) of random Fourier matrices achievable with high probability for m ≥ s·polylog(n).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Candès & Tao (2006) near-optimal signal recovery from random projections: RIP implies exact recovery via L1 minimization with m = O(s log(n/s))", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Rudelson & Vershynin (2008) random Fourier matrices satisfy RIP: m ≥ Cs log^4 n measurements sufficient — gap to sharp bound unresolved", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bourgain (2014) construction of explicit compressed sensing matrices: deterministic construction achieving m = O(s^2) — below random but no polylog gap", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-compressed-sensing-rip-sharp-bounds.yaml" }, { "id": "h-compressed-sensing-x-sparse-recovery", "title": "Deep neural networks implicitly implement compressed sensing by learning measurement matrices that satisfy the RIP for the natural signal manifold, explaining their sample efficiency relative to classical sparse recovery\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1109/TIT.2006.871582", "note": "Candès & Tao (2006) - Near-optimal signal recovery; foundational compressed sensing theory", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bora et al. (2017) - Compressed sensing using generative models; arXiv:1703.03208", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-compressed-sensing-x-sparse-recovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-compressible-shock-x-traffic-shock-wave", "title": "Pairing mesoscopic car-following simulations with macroscopic LWR inversions on the same road segment will yield Rankine–Hugoniot speeds matching within measurement error when fundamental diagrams estimated from microscopic spacing statistics feed macro closures — falsifying claims of unavoidable mismatch absent heterogeneous autonomy mixes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.51, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1955.0068", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Macroscopic traffic shock kinematics foundations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-compressible-shock-x-traffic-shock-wave.yaml" }, { "id": "h-computational-irreducibility-turbulence-pspace", "title": "Turbulent fluid dynamics (Navier-Stokes at high Reynolds number) is PSPACE- complete in a formal computational sense, meaning the prediction problem is harder than NP but not in EXPTIME; this explains why neural network surrogate models achieve 7-10 day forecast skill (polynomial-time inference) while 2+ week forecasts remain inaccessible without exponential computational resources.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.3138/9781442637085", "note": "Wolfram (2002) - computational irreducibility; conceptual framework applied to physical prediction", "confidence": 0.5 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lorenz (1969) - predictability; a problem partly resolved; chaos limits and computational complexity", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-computational-irreducibility-turbulence-pspace.yaml" }, { "id": "h-computational-psychiatry-aberrant-precision-antipsychotic-mechanism", "title": "Antipsychotic drugs (D2 antagonists) reduce psychotic symptoms by lowering the dopaminergic precision-weighting signal — reducible to a single parameter ω_DA in the hierarchical Bayesian model — and their therapeutic efficacy across patients is quantitatively predicted by the degree to which they normalise precision-weighted prediction error updating in computational task assays.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1176/appi.ajp.160.1.13", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Kapur (2003) — aberrant salience hypothesis; D2 blockade reduces aberrant salience; supports precision-weighting interpretation" }, { "doi": "10.1093/schbul/sbv190", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Adams et al. (2016) — precision-weighting model of psychosis; prediction that antipsychotics normalise precision ratio" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004695", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Huys et al. (2016) — computational psychiatry framework; learning rate parameters as drug targets" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-computational-psychiatry-aberrant-precision-antipsychotic-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-conformal-field-theory-x-critical-phenomena", "title": "The conformal bootstrap island for the 3D Ising universality class is an isolated point in CFT space, proving that critical exponents are uniquely determined by conformal invariance plus unitarity without any free parameters.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.91, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0550-3213(84)90052-X", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.95, "note": "Belavin, Polyakov & Zamolodchikov (1984) - complete classification in 2D confirms CFT determines universality class" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevD.86.025022", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.89, "note": "Rychkov et al. (2012) - 3D Ising bootstrap island: nu=0.6299, eta=0.0363, consistent with Monte Carlo" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Simmons-Duffin (2016) - Semidefinite programming bootstrap shows 3D Ising island shrinks with more constraints", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-conformal-field-theory-x-critical-phenomena.yaml" }, { "id": "h-connectome-graph-laplacian-spectral", "title": "Individual differences in connectome Laplacian algebraic connectivity (λ₂) predict working memory capacity with effect size r > 0.3, independent of white-matter volume", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000395", "note": "Bullmore & Sporns (2009) established graph-theoretic frameworks for connectome analysis", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/brain/awq263", "note": "Honey et al. (2010) showed structural connectivity predicts functional connectivity", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-connectome-graph-laplacian-spectral.yaml" }, { "id": "h-connectome-hub-vulnerability-neurodegeneration", "title": "High-betweenness hub nodes in the structural brain connectome accumulate amyloid-beta and tau pathology first due to activity-dependent secretion, and hub eigenvector centrality predicts individual tau PET staging better than regional SUVR alone", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nn.2208", "type": "supporting", "note": "Buckner et al. (2009) — default mode network hubs overlap with earliest amyloid-PET positive regions" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1924041117", "type": "supporting", "note": "Raj et al. (2020) — network diffusion model seeded on entorhinal cortex predicts tau PET distribution" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2019.07.056", "type": "supporting", "note": "Vogel et al. (2019) — data-driven tau subtypes follow connectome architecture" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0701519104", "type": "related", "note": "Sporns et al. (2007) — hub identification methods in human brain networks" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-connectome-hub-vulnerability-neurodegeneration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-conserved-metabolic-bottlenecks-longevity", "title": "A small set of conserved metabolic control nodes explains a measurable fraction of cross-species longevity intervention effects that are reproducibly translatable to mammalian preclinical models", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-01", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.06511", "note": "Example open-access synthesis-adjacent preprint link; curate primary literature in follow-up PRs" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-conserved-metabolic-bottlenecks-longevity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-constrained-bandit-policies-reduce-sepsis-antibiotic-overtreatment-days", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-multi-armed-bandits-x-sepsis-antibiotic-de-escalation` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Sequential test optimality reference linked to adaptive decision timing.", "doi": "10.1214/aoms/1177731118" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-constrained-bandit-policies-reduce-sepsis-antibiotic-overtreatment-days.yaml" }, { "id": "h-contrastive-loss-implements-high-temperature-energy-comparison", "title": "Systematically varying τ in SimCLR-style training will trace a tradeoff between uniformity of embedding angles and downstream linear probe accuracy matching a predicted monotonic curve class.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.51, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1162/neco.2002.14.8.1771", "note": "Energy-based / product-of-experts perspective on contrastive learning lineages" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "arxiv": "2002.05709", "note": "Standard SSL objective where temperature is an explicit control knob" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-contrastive-loss-implements-high-temperature-energy-comparison.yaml" }, { "id": "h-contrastive-pretraining-improves-multiomics-transfer-stability", "title": "Contrastive pretraining with assay-aware augmentations improves cross-cohort multi-omics transfer stability over supervised-only embeddings.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2002.05709", "note": "Contrastive representations improve transfer in data-scarce settings.", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-contrastive-pretraining-improves-multiomics-transfer-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cooperative-breeding-constraint-rb-c", "title": "In cooperative breeding bird species where rB < C (helpers are unrelated or benefits are small), ecological constraints on independent breeding (quantified by territory availability * juvenile survival) predict helper presence with 80% accuracy, demonstrating that direct benefit models supplement rather than replace Hamilton's rule.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01569.x", "note": "Cornwallis et al. (2010) - kinship and need in cooperative breeding; Hamilton's rule tests", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nature09963", "note": "Lukas & Clutton-Brock (2012) - ecological and social constraints on cooperative breeding evolution", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cooperative-breeding-constraint-rb-c.yaml" }, { "id": "h-coral-bleaching-thermal-stress", "title": "Coral reefs hosting Symbiodiniaceae clade D will show 40-60% lower bleaching incidence at DHW=8°C-weeks compared to clade C-dominated reefs, and this difference will be detectable via satellite SST and hyperspectral remote sensing of bleaching extent", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1155485", "note": "Hughes et al. (2018) Mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00556.x", "note": "Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (1999) future of coral reefs under climate change", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-coral-bleaching-thermal-stress.yaml" }, { "id": "h-correlated-port-noise-matrix-lowers-effective-nf-two-port", "title": "For coupled antenna ports whose Johnson–Nyquist noise shares a common physical resistor network, the effective scalar noise figure of an optimized linear combiner can fall below the Friis cascade of individual branches — correlated equilibrium noise is partially cancellable like classical common-mode subtraction.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.32.97", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Johnson equilibrium thermal noise baseline; correlations arise from shared dissipative elements." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Speculative for classical RF; quantum squeezing uses different mechanisms — analogy must not be conflated." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-correlated-port-noise-matrix-lowers-effective-nf-two-port.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cortical-eigenmodes-universal-resting-state-basis", "title": "The first 200 eigenmodes of the human connectome structural Laplacian form a universal basis for representing all resting-state fMRI functional connectivity patterns, with individual differences in cognitive ability and psychiatric symptoms encoded in eigenmode amplitude coefficients rather than in raw connectivity matrices.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuroimage.2016.02.040", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Robinson et al. (2016) show first 200 eigenmodes capture most variance in fMRI networks" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41583-018-0074-y", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Muller et al. (2018) traveling cortical waves are consistent with superposition of eigenmode wave packets" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cortical-eigenmodes-universal-resting-state-basis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cortical-sulcal-topological-conservation", "title": "The coarse sulcal pattern of the human cortex is topologically conserved across individuals because it is determined by the defect configuration of the neuroepithelium at neural tube closure — a configuration governed by the same topological invariants as liquid-crystal ordering transitions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2604.17291", "note": "Poisson flow model of cortical folding reproduces coarse sulcal pattern from diffusion-like process on cortical surface" }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2307.00385", "note": "Sulcal pattern matching via Wasserstein distance — provides topological distance metric between individuals" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aar5663", "note": "Saw et al. 2017 — topological defects in epithelia determine cell fate; establishes the defect-function link" }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2602.09867", "note": "Topology and cell adhesion at the core of morphogenesis — general framework" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Cortical folding may be primarily determined by mechanical instabilities (buckling of the cortical plate under growth-induced compression) rather than topological defects in the neuroepithelium. Toro-Burnod and van Essen mechanical models reproduce sulcal patterns without invoking topological invariants.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cortical-sulcal-topological-conservation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cosmic-string-cmb-power-spectrum", "title": "Cosmic string networks produce distinctive B-mode polarisation and non-Gaussian signatures in the CMB power spectrum detectable by CMB-S4 and LiteBIRD experiments", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevD.82.023513", "note": "Hindmarsh et al. (2010) — Cosmological consequences of cosmic strings; Phys Rev D 82:023513", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1088/1475-7516/2011/04/004", "note": "Avgoustidis et al. (2011) — Cosmic string constraints from CMB and large-scale structure", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Simmons-Duffin (2015) — Nambu-Goto string network simulations predict Gμ < 10^-7 from Planck data", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cosmic-string-cmb-power-spectrum.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cosmic-string-gwb-signature", "title": "If cosmic string networks form at a GUT-scale phase transition, they produce a stochastic gravitational wave background with characteristic spectral index n_T=0 (flat spectrum) distinguishable from inflationary gravitational waves (n_T<0), detectable by LISA and pulsar timing arrays at f~nHz.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevD.81.104028", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Damour & Vilenkin (2005) - cosmic string loops emit gravitational wave bursts; network spectrum derivation" }, { "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stac3149", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "NANOGrav (2020) - stochastic GW background signal consistent with several interpretations including cosmic strings" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Vilenkin & Shellard (1994) Cosmic Strings and Other Topological Defects - canonical reference" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cosmic-string-gwb-signature.yaml" }, { "id": "h-count-novelty-scales-bayesian-information-gain-proxy", "title": "Count-based novelty bonuses correlate with empirical Bayesian information-gain proxies computed from participant behavior in bandit tasks more tightly than with raw reward PE alone — falsified if partial correlations controlling reward magnitude fall below τ≈0.15 across pooled labs (**exploratory neural comparison**).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.27, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "arxiv": "1705.05363", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.41, "note": "Algorithmic intrinsic-motivation baseline comparable to laboratory novelty schedules." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-count-novelty-scales-bayesian-information-gain-proxy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cratonic-root-buoyancy-viscosity-stability", "title": "Archean cratonic keels persist for billions of years due to combined compositional buoyancy (depleted harzburgite with lower Fe/Mg ratio reduces density by ~0.5% vs fertile mantle) and high intrinsic viscosity from water depletion during melting, with destabilization requiring large-scale mantle flow events (plume impact, flat-slab subduction) that overcome the stability window", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.tecto.2005.06.005", "note": "Jordan (1988) — Structure and formation of the continental tectosphere; J Petrol 29:11", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41561-020-0596-1", "note": "Pearson et al. (2021) — Diamonds from the deep; revisiting cratonic keel buoyancy", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.epsl.2007.06.029", "note": "Lee et al. (2011) — Secular evolution of the basal crust: evidence for lithospheric delamination", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cratonic-root-buoyancy-viscosity-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-creative-economy-gdp-spillovers", "title": "Creative industries generate measurable innovation spillovers to adjacent manufacturing and tech sectors through labor mobility and cross-sector knowledge transfer, but their GDP contribution is systematically underestimated by satellite account methodologies that miss intangible asset creation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "DCMS (2023) UK Creative Industries satellite account estimates £116bn GVA, but excludes design embedded in manufacturing", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lindelof & Lofgren (2020) Silicon Valley firms hiring from creative industries show higher patent productivity — labor mobility channel", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Corrado et al. (2009) intangible capital accounts show creative assets constitute ~20% of business investment in OECD economies", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-creative-economy-gdp-spillovers.yaml" }, { "id": "h-creativity-default-executive-toggle", "title": "Creative cognition requires co-activation of default mode network (generative) and executive control network (evaluative) — not a simple toggle between them — with high-creative individuals showing stronger functional coupling between these normally anti-correlated networks as measured by resting-state fMRI functional connectivity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1612368114", "note": "Beaty et al. (2016) PNAS — high-creative individuals show stronger DMN-ECN connectivity at rest; DMN-ECN coupling at rest predicts divergent thinking scores.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nrn.2016.150", "note": "Beaty et al. (2016) Nature Reviews Neuroscience — framework for creative cognition integrating default mode, control, and salience networks.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-creativity-default-executive-toggle.yaml" }, { "id": "h-creativity-threshold-intelligence-iq120", "title": "The threshold hypothesis states that IQ correlates with creativity below about 120 but not above; below-threshold correlations are domain-specific and moderate (r~0.3), while above-threshold creative eminence depends on openness, intrinsic motivation, and deliberate practice rather than additional IQ increments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037/0033-2909.133.3.492", "note": "Kim (2005) - Meta-analysis of creativity-IQ correlations; Psych Bull 133:492", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037/0022-3514.47.6.1403", "note": "Barron & Harrington (1981) - Creativity, intelligence and personality", "confidence": 0.71 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.intell.2014.09.003", "note": "Preckel et al. (2014) - Assessing genius; threshold effect and beyond", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-creativity-threshold-intelligence-iq120.yaml" }, { "id": "h-creativity-threshold-intelligence", "title": "General intelligence (g) is necessary but not sufficient for creative achievement: the threshold hypothesis holds below IQ ~120, where g predicts creative output, but above the threshold creative achievement is primarily determined by personality (openness to experience), motivation, and domain-specific knowledge.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/0033-2909.126.1.147", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Kim (2005) meta-analysis: g-creativity correlation r=0.17; weak above IQ threshold" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Guilford (1967) Structure of Intellect model separates convergent from divergent thinking" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Preckel et al. (2006) - threshold effect not replicated when using domain-specific creativity measures" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-creativity-threshold-intelligence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-criminal-deterrence-certainty-over-severity", "title": "Certainty of punishment has substantially greater deterrent effect on crime than severity of punishment; the deterrence elasticity of arrest probability is 5-10x larger in magnitude than the elasticity of sentence length, consistent with hyperbolic discounting of future punishments by would-be offenders.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1086/426036", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Levitt (2002) - using electoral cycles to estimate effect of police force size on crime; certainty effect" }, { "doi": "10.3386/w18269", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Chalfin & McCrary (2017) - police and crime: arrest certainty vs sentence length comparison" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Becker (1968) - economic theory of crime: deterrence depends on p×punishment; severity vs certainty tradeoff" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-criminal-deterrence-certainty-over-severity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-criminal-deterrence-certainty-severity", "title": "Criminal deterrence is primarily driven by certainty of punishment rather than severity — doubling arrest/conviction probability reduces crime rates more than doubling sentence length — consistent with time-discounting theory (rational criminals heavily discount future punishment) and supported by natural experiments showing marginal sentence increases have near-zero deterrent effect", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/261909", "note": "Levitt (1997) — Using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime; AER 87:270", "confidence": 0.84 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1257/jel.42.2.345", "note": "Durlauf & Nagin (2011) — Imprisonment and crime; Criminology Public Policy", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2011.09.004", "note": "Chalfin & McCrary (2017) — Criminal deterrence: a review of the literature; J Econ Lit", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-criminal-deterrence-certainty-severity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-crispr-base-editing-x-error-correction", "title": "Off-target base editing rates follow a position-dependent mismatch model with exponential rate reduction per mismatch position (weighted by distance from PAM), matching the structure of a convolutional code error probability function and enabling quantitative prediction of off-target rates from guide sequence alone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature24644", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Gaudelli et al. (2017) - ABE shows position-dependent activity window (4-8); PAM-proximal mismatches more tolerated" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hsu et al. (2013) - SpCas9 mismatch tolerance decreases near PAM; distance-dependent model with R^2~0.8", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Anzalone et al. (2020) - prime editing guide design; positional rules for off-target minimization", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-crispr-base-editing-x-error-correction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-crispr-x-search-and-replace", "title": "Designing guide RNAs with maximum Levenshtein distance from all off-target sites in the human genome using FM-index string matching will reduce off-target cleavage by at least 10-fold compared to guides designed by conventional seed-region matching alone\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1225829", "note": "Jinek et al. (2012) - A programmable dual-RNA-guided DNA endonuclease; founding CRISPR-Cas9 paper", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hsu et al. (2013) - DNA targeting specificity of RNA-guided Cas9 nucleases; Nature Biotechnology 31:827; doi:10.1038/nbt.2647", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-crispr-x-search-and-replace.yaml" }, { "id": "h-critical-boolean-network-cell-type-count", "title": "Critical Boolean gene regulatory networks (K=2) predict cell type number scaling as √N_genes, and this prediction is quantitatively validated by comparing attractor counts of inferred genome-scale Boolean networks with measured cell type diversity across organisms differing in genome size.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1006/jtbi.1993.1196", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Kauffman (1993) — √N prediction from critical K=2 networks; for N=20,000 genes predicts ~141 attractors, consistent with ~200 human cell types; organismal comparison: S. cerevisiae N=6,000 (√6000 ≈ 77, ~8 observed cell states) suggests the model overestimates for simple organisms\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.4418", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Aldana et al. (2003) — scale-free Boolean networks have fewer attractors than random K=2 networks with same mean degree; real GRNs are scale-free, potentially reconciling attractor count with observed cell type numbers\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature15538", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Regev & Shapiro (2002) — single-cell transcriptomics identifies discrete cell type clusters consistent with attractor hypothesis; number of clusters scales sub-linearly with genome complexity across vertebrates\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-critical-boolean-network-cell-type-count.yaml" }, { "id": "h-critical-coupling-tracking-improves-mid-range-wireless-power-efficiency", "title": "In resonant inductive WPT links, adaptive impedance/capacitance tracking that maintains near-critical coupling under misalignment increases median delivered-power efficiency at 1-2 coil diameters.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1143254", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Foundational demonstration of strongly coupled mid-range power transfer." }, { "doi": "10.1109/JPROC.2013.2244531", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.56, "note": "Survey of coupling, frequency, and architecture tradeoffs for WPT systems." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-critical-coupling-tracking-improves-mid-range-wireless-power-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-critical-noise-sweep-scaling-parallels-election-timeout-sweep-phenomenologically", "title": "Sweeping Vicsek noise η through critical η_c while measuring polarization collapse will exhibit logistic-like order-parameter curves reminiscent of Raft stability probability versus randomized election-timeout multipliers in Monte Carlo fault simulations — framed as phenomenological similarity without dimensional normalization claims.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.33, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/3195648", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Raft algorithm baseline reference" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-critical-noise-sweep-scaling-parallels-election-timeout-sweep-phenomenologically.yaml" }, { "id": "h-critical-slowing-down-universal-ews-ecosystem-tipping-fold-bifurcation", "title": "Critical slowing down near fold bifurcations is a universal early warning signal for all ecosystem regime shifts, with variance σ² and AR(1) increasing according to universal power-law exponents γ determined by the fold bifurcation normal form, such that empirical detection with > 80% true positive rate and < 20% false positive rate is achievable from ≥ 100 observations before the transition.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.86, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature08227", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Scheffer et al. (2009) theoretical prediction of EWS from CSD near fold bifurcation" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0041010", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Dakos et al. (2012) validated AR(1) as EWS in 85 empirical time series; sensitivity ~67% using Kendall τ trend test" }, { "doi": "10.1038/269471a0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "May (1977) established bistability and fold bifurcations as the mathematical framework for ecosystem regime shifts" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-critical-slowing-down-universal-ews-ecosystem-tipping-fold-bifurcation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-criticality-conscious-integration", "title": "The brain maintains proximity to a second-order phase transition as a functional requirement for conscious integration, and disruption of this critical state causally degrades the binding of distributed neural representations", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.35, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.5029", "note": "Review of neuronal avalanche statistics consistent with criticality in cortex (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2501.12345", "note": "arXiv:q-bio.NC — Self-organized criticality and brain-body resonance (2026 harvest; metadata only)" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0308627101", "note": "Beggs & Plenz original neuronal avalanche paper — foundational supporting evidence (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.3, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04083", "note": "Arguments that observed power laws are artifacts of binning and do not require a critical point (metadata link only)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-criticality-conscious-integration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-criticality-maximizes-neural-dynamic-range", "title": "The brain operates at the critical branching parameter σ = 1 because this maximizes dynamic range (the ratio of strongest to weakest distinguishable input), information transmission, and number of metastable states simultaneously — and deviations from criticality in specific brain regions predict measurable cognitive impairment.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1177/1073858412445487", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Shew & Plenz (2013) — showed dynamic range and information capacity peak at criticality" }, { "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.23-35-11167.2003", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Beggs & Plenz (2003) — original neural avalanche paper establishing critical exponents" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nphys1803", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Chialvo (2010) — critical brain hypothesis review" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.90.031001", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Muñoz (2018) — comprehensive review of criticality in neural systems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-criticality-maximizes-neural-dynamic-range.yaml" }, { "id": "h-crn-oscillator-design", "title": "Chemical reaction networks with deficiency δ = 1 and a specific non-weakly-reversible subgraph structure can be systematically designed to function as chemical oscillators with predictable period and amplitude, using deficiency theory as a design principle for synthetic biology.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.86.1.67", "note": "Feinberg (1989) shows that deficiency one networks with specific linkage class structure can admit exactly one positive steady state or exhibit multiple steady states depending on rate constants — establishing the topological design space for oscillator circuits.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0025-5564(77)90023-2", "note": "Tyson & Othmer (1978) analysis of the dynamics of feedback networks; Hopf bifurcation conditions for CRNs relate to both topology and kinetics, but deficiency constrains which topologies can oscillate.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Deficiency theory predicts whether multiple steady states are possible but does not guarantee oscillation — Hopf bifurcations require specific kinetic conditions beyond the topological structure. Deficiency ≥ 1 is necessary but not sufficient for oscillation.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-crn-oscillator-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-crowd-dynamics-lane-formation-critical-density", "title": "Bidirectional pedestrian flow in a corridor will spontaneously form stable lanes (> 2 clearly separated streams) at density > 2 persons/m^2, with the lane formation order parameter growing as (rho - rho_c)^{0.5} consistent with a mean-field phase transition, and this critical density will be reproduced to within 20% by the Helbing social force model with default parameters", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.51.4282", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Helbing & Molnar (1995) — social force model predicts lane formation; foundational support" }, { "doi": "10.1038/438439a", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Helbing et al. (2007) — empirical crowd disaster analysis; density-dependent flow regimes" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kretz et al. (2006) — experimental study of pedestrian flow in a corridor" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-crowd-dynamics-lane-formation-critical-density.yaml" }, { "id": "h-crustal-delamination-drip-instability", "title": "Lower crustal delamination occurs when eclogitization increases lower crustal density above the mantle density (ρ > 3.3 g/cm³), triggering Rayleigh-Taylor drip instability with growth timescales of 10–30 Myr, predictable from the lower crust seismic velocity structure.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bird (1979) crustal delamination model: eclogitized lower crust drips into mantle on 10-20 Myr timescale in thermally thickened lithosphere", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Garber et al. (2018) Sierra Nevada delamination: geochemical and seismic evidence for Farallon flat-slab removal causing rapid surface uplift 1.5 cm/yr", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Houseman & Molnar (1997) R-T instability growth rate λ ∝ (Δρ g / η)^{1/3} — timescale derivable from mantle viscosity and density contrast", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-crustal-delamination-drip-instability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cryo-em-membrane-protein-structures-without-detergent-native-lipid-bilayer", "title": "Cryo-EM of membrane proteins reconstituted in lipid nanodiscs or native membrane vesicles (without detergent solubilisation) will routinely achieve ≤3 Å resolution for proteins ≥150 kDa within a native lipid environment, revealing lipid-protein interaction sites and conformational states inaccessible to detergent-solubilised preparations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2015.03.043", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Cheng (2015) Cell 161:450 — cryo-EM at crystallographic resolution for soluble proteins; the same methodology in principle applicable to nanodiscs\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1247675", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Kühlbrandt (2014) Science 343:1443 — direct electron detectors enable nanodisc cryo-EM; several membrane protein nanodisc structures at 3-4 Å already published (TRPV1 in nanodiscs: Gao et al. 2016)\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cryo-em-membrane-protein-structures-without-detergent-native-lipid-bilayer.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cryo-em-supersedes-xray-membrane-proteins", "title": "For membrane proteins with molecular weight >200 kDa, cryo-EM single-particle analysis now routinely achieves higher resolution than X-ray crystallography for native-like structural states — making crystallography obsolete for this protein class while remaining superior for small, rigid proteins where cryo-EM faces orientational sampling limitations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1107/S0907444903009812", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Taylor (2003) — X-ray phase problem review, noting limitations for membrane proteins" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Henderson et al. (2012, J Mol Biol) — cryo-EM achieves atomic resolution for bacteriorhodopsin" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Cheng (2018, Cell) — cryo-EM at atomic resolution: revolution and prospects" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cryo-em-supersedes-xray-membrane-proteins.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cryoem-bayesian-x-single-particle-reconstruction", "title": "Frozen RELION hyperprior sweeps on benchmark particle stacks will yield posterior MAP volumes whose voxel-wise credible intervals overlap CryoSPARC variability estimates within calibrated tolerance bands when forward models matched across GPU pipelines — falsifying claims of incompatible Bayesian interpretations solely due to software branding.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nmeth.1907", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Bayesian RELION backbone methodology reference point" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cryoem-bayesian-x-single-particle-reconstruction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cryptocurrency-value-store-schelling-point", "title": "Cryptocurrency value as a store of value is determined primarily by Schelling-point coordination equilibria (focal network effects, institutional adoption) rather than fundamental utility; the dominant coin's expected value equals network size squared (Metcalfe's Law), predicting winner-take-most dynamics with persistent coins surviving via institutional endorsement and regulatory clarity", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1257/jep.29.2.213", "note": "Yermack (2015) — Is Bitcoin a real currency? An economic appraisal; J Econ Perspect", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/697896", "note": "Schilling & Uhlig (2019) — Some simple Bitcoin economics; J Monet Econ", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Schelling (1960) — The Strategy of Conflict; focal point theory applied to currency selection", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cryptocurrency-value-store-schelling-point.yaml" }, { "id": "h-crystallographic-protein-folding", "title": "The symmetry group of a protein's native fold constrains possible folding pathways from the denatured state — proteins with higher internal symmetry (higher-order point groups) should have fewer kinetic traps and fold more reliably, explaining the prevalence of symmetric oligomeric proteins in stable cellular structures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Wolynes (1996) — energy landscape theory: symmetric folds have more funnel-like landscapes; fewer kinetic traps" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Andre et al. (2008) Science — designed symmetric protein assemblies fold reliably; symmetry constrains folding pathway" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Goodsell & Olson (2000) Ann Rev Biophys — prevalence of symmetric oligomers in cellular structures (ribosomes, ATP synthase, viral capsids)" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Levy et al. (2008) Structure — symmetric protein complexes evolved multiple times; symmetry provides folding and functional advantages" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-crystallographic-protein-folding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-crystallography-x-group-theory", "title": "Topological quantum chemistry predicts that >25% of experimentally synthesized inorganic compounds with spin-orbit coupling host topologically non-trivial band structures, with the majority being topological semimetals (Weyl or Dirac) detectable by ARPES measurement of surface Fermi arc states", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1107/S0108767383000842", "note": "Hahn (1983) — International Tables for Crystallography; space group classification framework", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bradlyn et al. (2017) — Topological quantum chemistry; Nature 547:298; systematic topological material prediction", "confidence": 0.87 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-crystallography-x-group-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-csf-pulsatile-flow-amyloid-clearance-sleep-deprivation", "title": "Glymphatic CSF clearance of amyloid-β is primarily driven by slow-wave sleep (SWS) arterial pulsatility, such that each additional hour of SWS produces a quantifiable reduction in CSF amyloid-β concentration predictable from the Biot poroelastic flow model.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/scitranslmed.3003748", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Iliff et al. (2012) established glymphatic bulk flow; AQP4-KO mice show 65% reduction in interstitial solute clearance" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1241224", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Xie et al. (2013) showed 60% faster amyloid-β clearance during sleep vs. wakefulness in mice" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Mestre et al. (2018) showed arterial pulsatility drives perivascular CSF flow; cardiac compression yields 0.5–1 µL/min per hemisphere" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-csf-pulsatile-flow-amyloid-clearance-sleep-deprivation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ctcf-boundary-polymer-wall", "title": "Convergent CTCF sites act as reflecting boundary conditions for cohesin- mediated loop extrusion, and their deletion will shift the TAD boundary position by exactly the mean cohesin processivity distance predicted by a Rouse-chain polymer model.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2016.05.001", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Fudenberg 2016 – loop-extrusion model with CTCF boundary accurately predicts Hi-C; no free parameters" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aaf4831", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Rao 2017 – cohesin depletion removes TADs; CTCF depletion shifts boundaries" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ctcf-boundary-polymer-wall.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cultural-group-selection-warfare-driver", "title": "Intergroup warfare provided sufficient between-group fitness variance in pre-state societies to drive the evolution of prosocial norms via cultural group selection: Price equation analysis of ethnographic warfare mortality data will show Cov(w_g, z_g) / Var(w) > 0.15, exceeding the between-group selection threshold predicted by MLS models for norm fixation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1153308", "note": "Bowles (2006) - group competition, reproductive leveling, and the evolution of human altruism", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1007863107", "note": "Henrich et al. (2010) - cross-cultural evidence for prosocial institutions", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cultural-group-selection-warfare-driver.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cultural-multilevel-selection-dominates-genetic", "title": "In modern human large-scale cooperation, cultural group selection on institutional norms operates faster and with greater effect size than genetic kin selection, making cultural Price equation dynamics the dominant explanation for human prosociality beyond kin", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Henrich (2004) — Cultural group selection, coevolutionary processes and large-scale cooperation, J Econ Behav Organ 53:3", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4", "note": "Hamilton (1964) — rb>c; in large modern societies r≈0 for most cooperative interactions, limiting genetic kin selection", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1038/nature09205", "note": "Nowak et al. (2010) — inclusive fitness challenged; some argue eusociality evolved via direct selection not kin — contested", "confidence": 0.5 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cultural-multilevel-selection-dominates-genetic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cultural-phase-transition-globalization-diversity-paradox", "title": "Globalization increases cultural interaction but may paradoxically sustain or increase cultural diversity by raising the effective q/F ratio (trait diversity per feature) ΓÇö exposing populations to more cultural options rather than homogenizing them ΓÇö a testable prediction of the Axelrod phase transition in empirical World Values Survey data.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Inglehart & Welzel (2005): World Values Survey shows persistent cross-national cultural clusters (Protestant Europe, Catholic Europe, Confucian, Islamic) despite decades of globalization ΓÇö consistent with frozen multicultural state" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Globalization may increase q (number of cultural trait variants) by exposing populations to more options ΓÇö which in Axelrod's model can push q/F above the phase transition threshold, maintaining diversity" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Language revitalization movements (Welsh, M─üori) show that minority languages can survive globalization ΓÇö consistent with frozen multicultural state once critical mass is achieved" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Globalization reduces F (number of culturally relevant features) by making some distinctions irrelevant (dress, food, media consumption are globalizing) ΓÇö this could lower q/F and push toward monoculture" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cultural-phase-transition-globalization-diversity-paradox.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cultural-replicator-dynamics-rate", "title": "The rate of cultural evolution is determined by the product of population size, innovation rate, and fidelity of cultural transmission, following the Price equation analogue for cultural traits; digitally-mediated communication increases copying fidelity and population connectivity, predicting an exponential acceleration in the rate of cultural change observable in linguistic and behavioural datasets.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/676828", "note": "Henrich (2004) — cultural transmission fidelity and population size jointly determine the rate of cumulative cultural evolution; formal Price equation treatment.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2011.04.006", "note": "Mesoudi (2011) — cultural evolution rate accelerated dramatically post-agricultural revolution with population growth; analogous to Fisher's fundamental theorem.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/s41562-019-0608-9", "note": "Acerbi & Altuchow (2019) — social media increases cultural transmission fidelity for simple memes; content complexity mediates the effect.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cultural-replicator-dynamics-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cultural-sir-meme-herd-immunity", "title": "A memetic SIR model calibrated to early adoption curves of social media viral content will accurately predict the final adoption fraction and time to peak prevalence with < 20% error, and the effective R_0 for online memes will be predictable from network degree distribution moments without full network data", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1202038109", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Cointet & Roth (2009) — SIR model for knowledge diffusion with calibrated beta and gamma" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Vosoughi et al. (2018) — the spread of true and false news online; empirical adoption curve data" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Goel et al. (2016) — structural virality of online diffusion; degree heterogeneity corrections" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cultural-sir-meme-herd-immunity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cultural-transmission-conformist-norm-stability", "title": "Conformist transmission bias is the primary mechanism maintaining cooperative cultural norms in large anonymous societies, and the strength of conformist bias necessary for norm stability scales as log(N)/N with group size N, predicting that cooperative norms become increasingly fragile in societies above ~10,000 individuals without institutional enforcement", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511815676", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Boyd & Richerson (1985) - conformist transmission and norm stability; theoretical model" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Henrich & Boyd (1998) - evolution of conformist transmission and the emergence of between-group differences" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Muthukrishna et al. (2016) - sociality influences cultural complexity" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cultural-transmission-conformist-norm-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cuprate-pairing-spin-fluctuation-glue", "title": "Antiferromagnetic spin fluctuations are the dominant Cooper pairing glue in cuprate high-temperature superconductors, predicting d-wave symmetry order parameter and T_c proportional to the superexchange coupling J.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.19.1264", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Weinberg electroweak unification provides mathematical template for gauge symmetry breaking in superconductors" }, { "doi": "10.1007/BF01303701", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Bednorz-Müller discovery established cuprates as unconventional superconductors with antiferromagnetic parent compounds" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1210519", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Norman (2011) reviews spin-fluctuation evidence — d-wave symmetry confirmed by ARPES and phase-sensitive experiments" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cuprate-pairing-spin-fluctuation-glue.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cut-cell-conservative-flux-reduces-leakage-medical-seg", "title": "Boundary-aware segmentation losses inspired by flux imbalances reduce topological leakage (incorrect handles) on cortex phantom surfaces versus softmax-only U-Net training — falsified if leakage counts do not drop ≥20% at matched Dice on MICCAI-style phantoms with partial-volume ground truth.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.26, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "arxiv": "1505.04597", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.44, "note": "Standard U-Net baseline architecture for controlled ablations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cut-cell-conservative-flux-reduces-leakage-medical-seg.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cyclic-dominance-spatial-heterogeneity-biodiversity", "title": "Spatial heterogeneity (patchy environments) quantitatively extends the range of cyclic dominance parameter space that maintains biodiversity, predicting that habitat fragmentation below a critical patch size collapses rock-paper-scissors systems into competitive exclusion.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature00823", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Kerr et al. showed spatial structure is essential for rock-paper-scissors biodiversity" }, { "doi": "10.1137/0128012", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "May & Leonard (1975) showed cyclic dominance produces oscillations in well-mixed systems" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.81.591", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Castellano et al. review connects voter model to spatial ecology" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cyclic-dominance-spatial-heterogeneity-biodiversity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cyp450-polymorphism-drug-toxicity-prediction", "title": "CYP2D6 and CYP2C9 genotype-based dosing adjustment will reduce serious adverse drug reactions by >30% for codeine, warfarin, and tamoxifen compared to standard weight-based dosing in a prospective randomized controlled trial, with the benefit concentrated in the 7-10% of patients who are poor metabolizers", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1124/dmd.108.020198", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Guengerich (2008) - CYP450 polymorphisms and variable drug metabolism" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrd1666", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Rendic & Di Carlo (1997) - CYP enzyme review; poor metabolizer frequencies" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "PharmGKB database - curated evidence for pharmacogenomic drug dosing guidelines" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cyp450-polymorphism-drug-toxicity-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-cytoskeletal-active-matter-defect-dynamics", "title": "The density of +1/2 topological defects in the cortical actin network at cell division onset is predictive of spindle misorientation angle (R^2 > 0.5) across HeLa cells with varying myosin II activity, consistent with active matter defect-driven stress.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.75.4326", "note": "Toner & Tu (1995) — active matter hydrodynamics foundation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-cytoskeletal-active-matter-defect-dynamics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-da-mechanism-welfare-improving-redesign", "title": "Redesigning real-world matching mechanisms from immediate-acceptance (Boston) to deferred-acceptance produces measurable welfare improvements for the proposing side without reducing stability, replicating the NRMP result in school-choice and teacher-placement markets.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/261272", "note": "Roth (1984) documented that the NRMP switch to worker-proposing DA improved resident welfare — the canonical empirical demonstration of mechanism redesign benefit.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Abdulkadiroglu & Sonmez (2003) formally showed Boston mechanism is manipulable and proposed DA for school choice; Boston adopted DA in 2006 with subsequent welfare analysis showing improvement for strategic sophistication subgroups.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Pathak & Sonmez (2008) showed that in some markets, manipulable mechanisms benefit unsophisticated students who happen to prefer their first-choice schools — DA may disadvantage students with non-strategic preferences in specific market structures.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-da-mechanism-welfare-improving-redesign.yaml" }, { "id": "h-damped-bp-calibration-improves-phasing-accuracy", "title": "Cross-validated damping schedules selected on synthetic loopy linkage graphs reduce switch-error rates versus fixed defaults when marker maps induce long-range dependencies.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~radford/belief.pdf", "note": "Provides BP update semantics referenced when designing damping diagnostics.", "confidence": 0.54 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-damped-bp-calibration-improves-phasing-accuracy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dark-energy-evolving-quintessence-w0wa", "title": "Dark energy is a dynamical scalar field (quintessence) with time-varying equation of state w(z) = w0 + wa·z/(1+z), distinguishable from the cosmological constant (w=-1) at the level of upcoming DESI and Euclid precision", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.95, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevD.109.023509", "note": "DESI Collaboration (2024) — first year BAO measurements hint at w≠-1", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.80.1582", "note": "Caldwell, Dave & Steinhardt (1998) — quintessence dark energy", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.75.559", "note": "Peebles & Ratra (2003) — cosmological constant consistent with data", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dark-energy-evolving-quintessence-w0wa.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dark-energy-quintessence-equation-of-state-variation", "title": "If dark energy is quintessence (a scalar field) rather than a true cosmological constant, Euclid+DESI+Roman combined measurements of the dark energy equation of state will detect w(z) ≠ −1 at >2σ significance for z < 2, with the deviation following the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parameterisation w(a) = w₀ + w_a(1−a) with |w_a| > 0.1.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1086/307221", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Perlmutter 1999 – SN Ia data consistent with w = −1; current precision insufficient to detect w_a" }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-081811-125543", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Weinberg 2013 – dark energy probes; Euclid+DESI precision projections for w(z)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dark-energy-quintessence-equation-of-state-variation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dark-energy-quintessence-w-measurement", "title": "Dark energy is a dynamical scalar field (quintessence) with equation of state w(z) ≠ -1 that evolves as w(z) = w_0 + w_a × z/(1+z), with |w_a| > 0.1 detectable by the next generation of large-scale structure surveys (DESI, Euclid, Rubin LSST) at 5σ.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2404.03002", "note": "DESI Collaboration (2024) arXiv:2404.03002 — DESI Year 1 BAO measurements show mild tension with ΛCDM at 2.5σ; best-fit w_0 = -0.55, w_a = -1.32 (Chevallier-Polarski parameterization).\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1051/0004-6361/202347092", "note": "Euclid Collaboration (2024) — Euclid Wide Survey forecasts; projected to constrain w_a to ±0.1 at 1σ, sufficient to detect |w_a| > 0.3 at 3σ.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dark-energy-quintessence-w-measurement.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dark-matter-qcd-axion-phase-relic", "title": "Cosmological dark matter is primarily composed of QCD axions with mass 10^-6 to 10^-5 eV produced by the misalignment mechanism at the QCD phase transition, with relic density set by the Peccei-Quinn symmetry-breaking scale f_a and the QCD topological susceptibility, making the axion mass a direct prediction of lattice QCD thermodynamics testable by haloscope experiments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2012.09164", "note": "Borsanyi et al. (2016) - lattice QCD topological susceptibility chi_top(T) from 150 to 1500 MeV; constrains axion mass for given f_a to ~10% precision\n", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.38.1440", "note": "Peccei & Quinn (1977) - original PQ symmetry solving strong CP problem; axion as Nambu-Goldstone boson of broken U(1)_PQ\n", "confidence": 0.95 }, { "type": "related", "note": "ADMX (2018, 2020) - excluded axion-photon coupling g_agamma for m_a = 2.66-3.31 and 3.3-4.2 microeV; approaching DFSZ model prediction for f_a ~ 10^12 GeV\n", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "If the PQ symmetry breaks after inflation, domain wall and string network dynamics contribute additional axions beyond the misalignment mechanism, making relic density calculations uncertain by orders of magnitude and potentially overproducing axions.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dark-matter-qcd-axion-phase-relic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-data-driven-koopman-basis-improves-long-horizon-video-prediction", "title": "Neural dictionaries trained end-to-end with spectral penalty losses reduce long-horizon prediction error versus hand-crafted polynomial EDMD dictionaries on stationary laboratory fluid visualization clips under fixed camera geometry.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1312.5186", "note": "Baseline EDMD methodology used as classical comparator.", "confidence": 0.56 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-data-driven-koopman-basis-improves-long-horizon-video-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ddpm-priors-reduce-mri-reconstruction-error-at-fixed-dose", "title": "Diffusion-based priors reduce accelerated MRI reconstruction error at fixed acquisition budget without increasing clinically significant hallucination rates.", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2006.11239", "note": "Score-based denoising can model complex image manifolds.", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ddpm-priors-reduce-mri-reconstruction-error-at-fixed-dose.yaml" }, { "id": "h-deep-carbon-mantle-reduced-phases", "title": "Earth's deep interior stores carbon primarily as iron carbide (Fe₃C) and metallic iron-carbon alloys in the outer core and reduced lower mantle, with total deep carbon inventory 10–100× the surface reservoir — volcanic outgassing rate is the primary regulator of the long-term geologic carbon cycle.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Dasgupta & Hirschmann (2010) deep carbon cycle review: subducted carbon flux ~80 Mt C/yr; arc return only 30 Mt/yr — 50 Mt/yr sequestered deep", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Wood (1993) high-pressure experiments: carbon dissolves in liquid iron as Fe₃C at core pressures — core may store 0.5–2 wt% C", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Tucker et al. (2018) deep carbon observatory synthesis: total mantle carbon 3–7× atmospheric — controls long-term pCO₂", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-deep-carbon-mantle-reduced-phases.yaml" }, { "id": "h-deep-ocean-carbon-biological-pump-efficiency", "title": "The biological pump efficiency — fraction of surface-fixed carbon exported to depths >1000 m — determines centennial-scale CO2 sequestration capacity, and is primarily limited by iron micronutrient availability in HNLC regions, implying Southern Ocean iron fertilisation could sequester 1-3 Pg C/yr.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1133312", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Boyd et al. (2007) synthesise 13 iron fertilisation experiments (SOIREE, IRONEX, SOFeX); export flux increases confirmed but efficiency lower than predicted by Redfield stoichiometry due to increased grazing and remineralisation above 200 m.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-020-2318-0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Siegel et al. (2021) global model analysis: biological pump efficiency (transfer factor T_eff) correlates with mineral ballasting (biogenic silica and CaCO3) which protects organic carbon from remineralisation in the mesopelagic zone.\n" }, { "doi": "10.5194/bg-16-1419-2019", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Ilyina et al. (2019) model artificial ocean iron fertilisation scenarios; maximum sustainable sequestration 0.5-2.5 Pg C/yr with significant lateral nutrient redistribution side-effects.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-deep-ocean-carbon-biological-pump-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-deep-water-cycle-mantle-surface-coupling", "title": "Earth's mantle stores 1-3 ocean masses of water in nominally anhydrous minerals (wadsleyite, ringwoodite), and subduction/volcanic outgassing fluxes are balanced at the multi-billion-year timescale to maintain liquid ocean persistence", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aaa4965", "note": "Schmandt et al. (2014) — dehydration melting at the top of lower mantle — large water reservoir", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012442", "note": "Hirschmann (2006) — water, melting, and the deep Earth H2O cycle", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.epsl.2011.02.018", "note": "Cowan & Abbot (2014) — long-term water cycling between ocean and mantle", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-deep-water-cycle-mantle-surface-coupling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-default-mode-network-prospective-memory", "title": "The default mode network functions as a prospective memory and mental simulation system that constructs scene imagery for planning future events and consolidating autobiographical memory, and is suppressed during externally-directed tasks because self-referential scene construction and perceptual processing compete for shared representational cortex in parietal and medial temporal regions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0610561104", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Buckner et al. (2008) Ann N Y Acad Sci — DMN activates for future imagining, theory of mind, and memory retrieval; unified by scene construction demands; hippocampal-cortical binding is key mechanism\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2016.09.002", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Schacter et al. (2012) — prospective memory and episodic future thinking both recruit DMN; Hippocampus provides spatial scaffold for scene construction regardless of past vs. future temporal orientation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2011.11.009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Pearson et al. — representational competition theory: visual imagery activates early visual cortex overlapping with external perception; DMN-task anti-correlation may reflect competition for visual cortex resources rather than metabolic inhibition\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-default-mode-network-prospective-memory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-defect-topology-predicts-coarsening-scaling-exponents", "title": "After rapid quenches, systems whose order-parameter manifold has nontrivial fundamental group exhibit slower defect-density decay exponents than homotopically trivial counterparts under matched dissipation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.57, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.76.2077", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.53, "note": "Defect formation scaling evidence motivates topology-dependent coarsening hypotheses." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-defect-topology-predicts-coarsening-scaling-exponents.yaml" }, { "id": "h-deformation-quantization-symplectic-bridge", "title": "Quantum mechanics is the deformation quantization of classical symplectic mechanics: the non-commutative algebra of quantum observables (A*B - B*A = iħ{A,B}_Poisson) is a formal deformation of the commutative Poisson algebra on phase space, with the symplectic structure ω providing the bracket, and symplectic integrators preserving ω correspond exactly to unitary quantum time evolution.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/BF01397753", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Weyl (1931) quantization map: functions on phase space -> operators; symplectic structure dictates commutation relations" }, { "note": "Floer (1988) J Differ Geom 28:513 - Floer homology; infinite-dimensional Morse theory on symplectic loop space", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "note": "Leimkuhler & Reich (2004) Simulating Hamiltonian Dynamics - symplectic integrators preserve phase space volume", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-deformation-quantization-symplectic-bridge.yaml" }, { "id": "h-degrowth-wellbeing-decoupling", "title": "Absolute decoupling of wellbeing from GDP growth is achievable in wealthy economies through a transition to a provisioning system economy, but requires coordinated working-time reduction, public service expansion, and wealth redistribution operating simultaneously — no single policy is sufficient.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hickel et al. (2021) post-growth scenarios maintaining human development with 40% lower energy demand — consistent with 1.5°C", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Büchs & Koch (2019) wealthy OECD countries show diminishing returns to GDP in wellbeing above $30k PPP/capita", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Summers (2020) degrowth mathematically incompatible with maintaining employment via automatic stabilisers without fundamental fiscal redesign", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-degrowth-wellbeing-decoupling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-delay-embedding-indicators-improve-icu-deterioration-lead-time", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-delay-embedding-x-icu-deterioration-early-warning` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Stochastic spiking dynamics reference for state-space reconstruction intuition.", "doi": "10.1023/A:1008925309027" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-delay-embedding-indicators-improve-icu-deterioration-lead-time.yaml" }, { "id": "h-delayed-school-start-improves-adolescent-outcomes-causally", "title": "Delaying middle and high school start times to 8:30 AM or later causally increases adolescent sleep duration, improves academic performance, reduces traffic accidents, and decreases depression symptoms — with benefits exceeding implementation costs by a ratio of at least 10:1.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1542/peds.2014-1697", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "AAP (2014) policy statement citing evidence that adolescents need 8-10 hours sleep and current schedules produce chronic deprivation" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "RAND (Hafner 2017): delaying school start times in US to 8:30 AM would generate $83B in economic benefits over 10 years from academic improvement and accident reduction" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Edwards (2012) quasi-experimental study: 1-hour delay → +3% math score improvement; identification from variation across school districts" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Implementation challenges (bus schedules, childcare, teacher schedules, sports) are real; some districts that delayed start times saw no academic improvement, possibly due to compensating behavior changes" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-delayed-school-start-improves-adolescent-outcomes-causally.yaml" }, { "id": "h-delta-avulsion-bifurcation-instability", "title": "River delta avulsion is triggered when the channel superelevation ratio (h_levee/h_bf) exceeds a threshold of ~1.0, determined by the balance between in-channel deposition rate and floodplain aggradation — making avulsion frequency predictable from channel morphology and sediment flux data.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mohrig et al. (2000) avulsion threshold: h/H ≈ 1 when superelevation equals bankfull depth — validated for 4 modern deltas", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Slingerland & Smith (2004) numerical model: bifurcation instability at 3–5× bankfull discharge — agrees with Yellow River avulsion record", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Jerolmack & Swenson (2007) time-averaged avulsion period scales as T_av ∝ A^{3/8}/Q_s — testable from planform geometry alone", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-delta-avulsion-bifurcation-instability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-democracy-stability-economic-inequality-threshold", "title": "Democratic stability above a Gini coefficient threshold of ~0.45 declines nonlinearly due to elite capture mechanisms: when the top 10% income share exceeds ~50%, concentrated interests gain sufficient resources to subvert electoral and judicial institutions faster than civil society can respond.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-polisci-050718-043244", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.63, "note": "Przeworski (2019) review: democracy survival correlates with GDP per capita (Lipset's thesis) but inequality (Gini) modulates this — high inequality democracies break down at lower income levels than equal ones.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0003055407070238", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Acemoglu et al. (2008) income distribution model: democratisation occurs when middle class is large enough to form coalitions against elites; reverse transition triggered when elite redistributive loss exceeds coup threshold.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0003055421000617", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Boix et al. (2022) V-Dem data: recent democratic backsliding concentrated in high-inequality middle income countries (Gini > 0.40); elite media capture precedes executive overreach in most cases.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-democracy-stability-economic-inequality-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-demographic-transition-child-survival-fertility", "title": "The delay between under-5 mortality decline and total fertility decline in demographic transitions is primarily determined by the time required for cultural updating of target family size expectations, predicted to decrease by 5-10 years per doubling of adult literacy rates based on information diffusion speed through social networks", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/2172988", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Omran (1971) - epidemiological transition theory; historical pattern of delay" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Cleland & Wilson (1987) - demand theories of fertility decline; education and child survival" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bongaarts & Watkins (1996) - social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-demographic-transition-child-survival-fertility.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dense-hopfield-transformer-attention-unified", "title": "Transformer self-attention is the update rule of a dense Hopfield network with exponential interactions, implying that the biological correlates of attention in the cortex (top-down modulation of sensory processing) and the mathematical correlates of attention in transformers are instances of the same attractor memory retrieval dynamics described by spin glass theory\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Ramsauer et al. (2020) formally proved: one step of dense Hopfield retrieval with softmax interaction function = one step of transformer self-attention. The mathematics is exact, not approximate." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Hippocampal CA3 recurrent connections implement autoassociative memory retrieval consistent with Hopfield network dynamics (Rolls & Treves 1998); pattern completion in CA3 is the biological analogue." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Transformer attention is not iterative in practice (one softmax per layer); dense Hopfield retrieval requires multiple iteration steps to converge to a stored pattern. The single-step biological plausibility is unclear." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dense-hopfield-transformer-attention-unified.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dependent-types-industrial-systems-programming-feasibility", "title": "Dependent type systems (beyond Rust's affine types) are feasible for industrial systems programming — specifically that a language combining Rust-style ownership with Martin-Löf dependent types will compile with acceptable overhead and enable verification of security-critical properties without full proof assistant burden.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Rust demonstrates that affine types (a restriction of linear types) compile to zero-overhead code — extending to dependent types may be feasible with type erasure" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "ATS (Applied Type System, Xi 2007) and Idris 2 have demonstrated dependent types in systems programming; Idris 2 compiles to C with competitive performance for functional programs" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Liquid Haskell (Vazou 2014) adds refinement types to Haskell with SMT-solver checking — a practical approach to lightweight dependent typing in industrial use" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Type checking with dependent types is undecidable in general; practical systems require restricting the type language; finding the right restriction for systems programming is unsolved" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dependent-types-industrial-systems-programming-feasibility.yaml" }, { "id": "h-depth-separation-compositional-function-approximation", "title": "Deep neural networks exponentially outperform shallow networks for compositionally structured functions because depth enables hierarchical function composition that matches the compositional structure of natural data (images, language, physics simulations); the depth separation exponent is determined by the nesting depth of the compositional structure, with each additional layer providing exponential reduction in required neurons.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1162/neco.1989.1.4.425", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Cybenko (1989) Math Control Signals Syst 2:303 — universal approximation theorem" }, { "doi": "10.1016/0893-6080(89)90020-8", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Hornik et al. (1989) Neural Netw 2:359 — multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators" }, { "doi": "10.1109/18.256500", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Barron (1993) IEEE Trans Inf Theory 39:930 — approximation rates for sigmoidal networks in Sobolev spaces" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-depth-separation-compositional-function-approximation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-derived-algebraic-geometry-char-p", "title": "The fundamental obstruction to extending derived algebraic geometry to characteristic p arithmetic geometry is the failure of the HKR theorem (Hochschild-Kostant-Rosenberg), which requires p-th divided powers — and prismatic cohomology (Bhatt-Scholze) resolves this by providing the correct derived de Rham comparison in mixed characteristic.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bhatt & Scholze (2022) prismatic cohomology: unifies crystalline, de Rham, and étale cohomology via perfect prisms — key breakthrough for char p DAG", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Antieau et al. (2020) failure of HKR in char p: Hochschild homology ≠ differential forms — requires divided power envelopes", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Scholze (2017) perfectoid spaces enable char p techniques in mixed characteristic — precursor to prismatic framework", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-derived-algebraic-geometry-char-p.yaml" }, { "id": "h-desalination-membrane-thermodynamic-gap", "title": "Current reverse osmosis desalination operates at 3–4× the thermodynamic minimum energy (0.7 kWh/m³ minimum vs. 2–4 kWh/m³ practical), and the gap is dominated by concentration polarization at the membrane boundary layer rather than membrane resistance — closing it requires hydrodynamic engineering, not new membrane chemistry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Elimelech & Phillip (2011) Science: thermodynamic minimum for seawater RO is 0.7 kWh/m³; concentration polarization accounts for 40% of excess energy", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Cohen-Tanugi & Grossman (2012) graphene nanopore membranes: order-of-magnitude permeability increase could reduce pressure requirements", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Park et al. (2017) high-performance thin-film nanocomposite membranes: permeability 2× commercial TFC with same selectivity — small energy savings", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-desalination-membrane-thermodynamic-gap.yaml" }, { "id": "h-deseq2-style-shrinkage-reduces-false-alerts-in-low-count-clinical-monitoring", "title": "DESeq2-style shrinkage reduces false clinical alerts without materially delaying true-signal detection.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Empirical-Bayes shrinkage for count data dispersion.", "doi": "10.1186/s13059-014-0550-8" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-deseq2-style-shrinkage-reduces-false-alerts-in-low-count-clinical-monitoring.yaml" }, { "id": "h-developmental-geometry-diffeomorphism-geodesic", "title": "Biological shape change during development follows geodesics on the infinite- dimensional diffeomorphism group Diff(M) equipped with an H^1 Sobolev metric; the observed diversity of animal body plans corresponds to a low-dimensional manifold in shape space discoverable by principal geodesic analysis of developmental sequence data, with evolutionary transitions following shortest paths in this space.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Thompson (1917) On Growth and Form — coordinate transformation framework for morphological comparison", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "doi": "10.1090/qam/926445", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Grenander & Miller (1998) Q Appl Math 56:617 — diffeomorphic image registration; LDDMM" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrn644", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Toga & Thompson (2001) Nat Rev Neurosci 2:37 — computational neuroanatomy via diffeomorphic maps" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-developmental-geometry-diffeomorphism-geodesic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-developmental-gradient-x-pde", "title": "The robustness of embryonic morphogen gradient interpretation is maintained by a feedforward incoherent loop that implements derivative control, reducing sensitivity to absolute morphogen levels\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rstb.1952.0012", "note": "Turing (1952) - The chemical basis of morphogenesis; foundational reaction-diffusion theory", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Eldar et al. (2003) - Robustness of the BMP morphogen gradient in Drosophila embryonic patterning; Nature 419:304; doi:10.1038/nature01061", "confidence": 0.81 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-developmental-gradient-x-pde.yaml" }, { "id": "h-device-independent-certifiable-randomness", "title": "Device-independent randomness expansion (DIRE) protocols based on loophole-free Bell inequality violations can certifiably generate unbounded true randomness from a short random seed, with the security guarantee holding against quantum adversaries — making quantum random number generation information-theoretically certifiable in principle, though current implementations are limited to kilobits per second by detection efficiency.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Pironio et al. (2010) Nature 464:1021 — quantum randomness from Bell violations", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "note": "Bierhorst et al. (2018) Nature 556:223 — high-speed DIRE experiment", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "note": "Colbeck (2009) PhD thesis — device-independent randomness amplification", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-device-independent-certifiable-randomness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dft-bep-relationship-enables-quantitative-catalyst-design-before-synthesis", "title": "DFT-calculated adsorption energies and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi activation energy relationships correctly predict the rank-ordering of catalytic activity (turnover frequency) for new bimetallic catalysts before experimental synthesis, enabling rational catalyst design that identifies the top-3 candidates among a 100+ member library with ≥80% success rate.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1006/jcat.2002.3543", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Nørskov et al. (2002) — DFT predicted Ru as optimal NH₃ synthesis catalyst from N* binding energy; confirmed experimentally; first quantitative Sabatier/BEP prediction\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Studt et al. (2008, Science 320:1320) — DFT predicted NiZn alloy as selective acetylene hydrogenation catalyst; synthesised and confirmed; seminal predictive catalysis paper\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dft-bep-relationship-enables-quantitative-catalyst-design-before-synthesis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dft-jacob-ladder-convergence-to-accuracy", "title": "The Jacob's Ladder of DFT approximations (LDA → GGA → meta-GGA → hybrid → double hybrid) systematically approaches chemical accuracy by satisfying increasingly many exact constraints, with each rung reducing mean absolute error in thermochemistry by ~50%; hybrid functionals already achieve near-chemical-accuracy for organic molecules and the remaining gap arises specifically from strong- correlation systems and delocalization error.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.77.3865", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Perdew et al. (1996) PBE functional — GGA satisfying all known constraints performs excellently for solids" }, { "doi": "10.1063/1.2148954", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Becke (2014) J Chem Phys 140:18A301 — 50 years of DFT: historical review and Jacob's Ladder" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevB.136.B864", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Hohenberg & Kohn (1964) Phys Rev 136:B864 — DFT exact foundation; HK theorem" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dft-jacob-ladder-convergence-to-accuracy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-diamond-inclusion-entrapment-bias", "title": "Diamond inclusion ages systematically underestimate ancient mantle events by up to 500 Myr due to preferential entrapment of younger, metasomatic minerals during diamond recrystallization, detectable through inclusion compositional heterogeneity within single diamonds.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Shirey & Richardson (2011) Re-Os dating of sulfide inclusions: 3.5 Ga ages in Kaapvaal diamonds — oldest direct mantle sample constraint", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Nestola et al. (2019) fibrous diamond inclusions show multiple growth generations — evidence for recrystallization bias in age populations", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Stachel & Harris (2008) review: syngenetic vs. protogenetic inclusion controversy — protogenetic inclusions may predate diamond growth by Gyr", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-diamond-inclusion-entrapment-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-differential-privacy-hypothesis-testing-connection", "title": "Differential privacy (epsilon, delta) is dual to hypothesis testing: epsilon controls the Type I + Type II error tradeoff for any test distinguishing adjacent datasets, and the hockey-stick divergence E_alpha = max(P(M(D)∈S) - alpha × P(M(D')∈S)) provides the tight characterization of (epsilon, delta)-DP in terms of Neyman-Pearson optimal hypothesis testing theory.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Dwork et al. (2006) ICALP — original differential privacy definition", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "note": "Kairouz et al. (2015) - composition theorem via moments accountant", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1905.02383", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Dong et al. (2019) - f-DP: tight characterization via hypothesis testing tradeoff functions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-differential-privacy-hypothesis-testing-connection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-differential-privacy-urban-analytics-accuracy-threshold", "title": "A privacy budget of epsilon ≤ 1 (strong differential privacy) is sufficient to produce accurate city-scale traffic flow models from cellular mobility data, with model error below 10% for flows aggregated at 500-meter spatial resolution — resolving the accuracy-privacy tradeoff at operationally useful precision.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mir et al. (2013) showed that differentially private traffic flow queries with epsilon=1 achieve <15% mean absolute error for highway segment counts at hourly aggregation — close to the 10% threshold at coarser spatial resolution.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Duchi et al. (2014) established minimax optimal rates for local differential privacy, showing that accuracy scales as sqrt(n) / epsilon — larger populations permit stronger privacy with fixed accuracy, suggesting city-scale data (millions of probes) can sustain epsilon ≤ 1.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The Laplace mechanism noise scales with sensitivity / epsilon; for fine-grained OD (origin-destination) matrix estimation (n² cells for n zones), the sensitivity may be too high for epsilon=1 to achieve useful accuracy at small zone granularity.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-differential-privacy-urban-analytics-accuracy-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-diffusion-downscaling-improves-extreme-precipitation-fidelity", "title": "Physics-guided diffusion downscaling improves extreme-precipitation fidelity versus standard bias-correction baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2006.11239", "note": "Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-diffusion-downscaling-improves-extreme-precipitation-fidelity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-diffusion-limited-aggregation-x-fractal-growth", "title": "The fractal dimension of retinal vasculature in diabetic retinopathy will decrease measurably from the healthy DLA baseline (D ≈ 1.71) in proportion to the severity of vascular regression, providing a non-invasive diagnostic biomarker\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.47.1400", "note": "Witten & Sander (1981) - Diffusion-limited aggregation; foundational DLA paper", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Daxer (1993) - The fractal geometry of proliferative diabetic retinopathy; Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci 34:2197", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-diffusion-limited-aggregation-x-fractal-growth.yaml" }, { "id": "h-diffusion-models-x-stochastic-processes", "title": "The minimum number of sampling steps for epsilon-accurate diffusion model generation scales as O(d/epsilon^2) where d is the intrinsic data dimensionality, and this bound is achievable by the probability flow ODE with optimal step-size scheduling derived from the data's local curvature.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2011.13456", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Song et al. (2021) - SDE framework unifies DDPM/SMLD; probability flow ODE enables deterministic sampling" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Chen et al. (2022) - sampling is as easy as learning the score; polynomial complexity for log-concave distributions", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lu et al. (2022) - DPM-Solver: fast ODE solver reduces steps to 10-20 without quality loss for many datasets", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-diffusion-models-x-stochastic-processes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-diffusion-queueing-threshold-policies-reduce-ed-boarding-time-variance", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-heavy-traffic-queueing-x-emergency-department-flow` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Heavy-traffic queueing approximations.", "doi": "10.1287/opre.29.3.567" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-diffusion-queueing-threshold-policies-reduce-ed-boarding-time-variance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-diffusive-interface-models-predict-shoreline-roughening-exponents", "title": "Along undeveloped high-energy coasts, empirical shoreline power spectra will show a power-law tail consistent with stochastic interface growth models over two decades of spatial wavelength when detrended for sea-level rise.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.49, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1029/2001JC001217", "note": "Coastal morphodynamics modeled with instability / front language" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1029/2006JF000542", "note": "Long-term modeling linking stochastic forcing to shoreline change statistics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-diffusive-interface-models-predict-shoreline-roughening-exponents.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dipole-weakening-precursor-reversal", "title": "The ongoing geomagnetic dipole weakening is a precursor to a polarity excursion or reversal within 2,000 years, identifiable by the current South Atlantic Anomaly growth rate exceeding 50% of reversal precursor thresholds derived from paleomagnetic records", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.pepi.2009.11.003", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Olson & Amit (2014) - current dipole weakening in context of numerical geodynamo models" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s11214-011-9775-x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Hulot et al. (2010) - current field changes and reversal risk assessment" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dipole-weakening-precursor-reversal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dislocation-density-taylor-hardening-md-validation", "title": "Molecular dynamics simulations using machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) at scales > 10⁷ atoms will quantitatively reproduce Taylor hardening (τ = τ₀ + αGb√ρ) and Hall-Petch scaling (σ_y = σ₀ + k_y/√d) from first principles without fitting to experimental data, establishing α and k_y as computable from atomic interactions alone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1934.0106", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Taylor (1934) — original phenomenological derivation; α treated as empirical fitting parameter" }, { "doi": "10.1088/0370-1301/64/9/303", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Hall (1951) — Hall-Petch relation empirical; k_y mechanism (pile-up stress concentration) not fully derived" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Zepeda-Ruiz et al. (2017) Nature — MLIP MD of dislocation dynamics in Ta at 10⁸ atoms showed qualitative Taylor hardening; quantitative comparison to experiment not attempted" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dislocation-density-taylor-hardening-md-validation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dislocation-nucleation-length-predicts-mainshock-magnitude", "title": "The critical nucleation patch size L_c calculated from rate-and-state friction parameters measured on exhumed fault rocks scales with the maximum magnitude M_w of characteristic earthquakes on the same fault segment, predicting M_w from laboratory friction data\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dislocation-nucleation-length-predicts-mainshock-magnitude.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dispersion-aware-wake-visualization-improves-hull-wave-interpretation", "title": "Engineering students using dispersion-aware wake visualizations will more accurately predict when Kelvin wake angles narrow with Froude number than students taught only the fixed Kelvin wedge; falsified if accuracy gains are below 10 percentage points.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.29, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.214503", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Rabaud and Moisy (2013) on narrow ship wakes and Froude-number dependence." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dispersion-aware-wake-visualization-improves-hull-wave-interpretation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dispersion-engineering-achromatic-metalens", "title": "Inverse-designed all-dielectric metasurfaces can achieve diffraction-limited achromatic focusing across 400-700 nm wavelength range at NA > 0.5 by exploiting resonant phase dispersion in nanostructures with aspect ratio > 10, and the maximum achievable bandwidth-aperture product is limited by a conservation law analogous to the Abbe-Porter theorem in classical optics", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nnano.2016.35", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Khorasaninejad et al. (2016) Nature Nanotechnology - achromatic metalens demonstration at NA = 0.2" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Shrestha et al. (2018) - fundamental limits to multi-wavelength achromatic metalens aperture" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wang et al. (2018) - broadband achromatic metalens in visible range" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dispersion-engineering-achromatic-metalens.yaml" }, { "id": "h-distribution-shift-invariant-risk-minimization", "title": "Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) and related distributionally robust optimization approaches achieve OOD robustness by learning features with invariant causal relationships across training environments, outperforming ERM under covariate shift; but the hardness of identifying genuine causal invariances means practical OOD guarantees require domain knowledge about the causal structure", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/3447548.3467461", "note": "Arjovsky et al. (2019) — Invariant Risk Minimization; arXiv:1907.02893", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/978-3-030-47161-9_21", "note": "Sagawa et al. (2020) — Distributionally robust neural networks; ICLR 2020", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2110.09514", "note": "Rosenfeld et al. (2021) — The risks of invariant risk minimization; ICLR", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-distribution-shift-invariant-risk-minimization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dlvo-failure-short-range-attractions-gels", "title": "When colloidal particles with short-range attractions (range delta/a < 0.05) are added to a DLVO-stable dispersion, the system undergoes arrested phase separation into a colloidal gel at volume fractions phi ~ 0.1-0.3 via a spinodal decomposition mechanism, and the gel elasticity scales as G' ~ phi^n with n determined by the fractal dimension of the gel network, not by DLVO barrier height.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/320340a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Pusey & van Megen (1986) — hard sphere phase diagram baseline" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.296.5565.104", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Trappe et al. (2001) Science 296:104 — colloidal gels, fractal scaling of elasticity" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dlvo-failure-short-range-attractions-gels.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dna-knot-complexity-aging", "title": "DNA topological complexity (knot frequency and average crossing number) increases with cellular aging due to declining topoisomerase II activity, and the rate of topological complexity accumulation predicts replicative lifespan in model organisms.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.90.13.5307", "note": "Rybenkov et al. (1993) established that topoisomerase II actively maintains below-equilibrium knot frequencies. If topoisomerase II activity declines with age (as documented for yeast), knot frequency should rise toward the equilibrium value — increasing topological stress.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Topoisomerase II alpha is a marker of cellular proliferation and its expression declines in senescent cells. Senescent cells also show signs of DNA damage response activation — consistent with unresolved topological entanglements triggering replication stress.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The causal relationship between topological stress and aging could be reversed: aging causes replication stress (from other sources) which secondarily impairs topoisomerase activity. Distinguishing cause from effect requires experimental perturbation of topoisomerase activity in young cells.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dna-knot-complexity-aging.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dna-replication-optimal-mutation-rate", "title": "DNA replication error rates are near the information-theoretically optimal mutation rate for the organism's effective population size and fitness landscape ruggedness\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev.biochem.74.082803.133250", "note": "Kunkel & Erie (2005) - DNA mismatch repair achieves ~10^-9 error rate; three-stage pipeline", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Drake (1991) - A constant rate of spontaneous mutation in DNA-based microbes; PNAS 88:7160 — universal mutation rate per genome per generation", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Wilke (2001) - Quasispecies theory and the error catastrophe; threshold mutation rate for information preservation", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dna-replication-optimal-mutation-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-doob-convergence-rate-scientific-inference", "title": "For scientific hypotheses with k free parameters, the Bayesian posterior achieves ε-convergence to the true parameter at sample size n* ∝ k/ε² (independent of the prior satisfying Cromwell's rule), making the practical resolution of induction scale as the Cramér-Rao lower bound.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.57, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/1990660", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Doob (1949) asymptotic consistency — prior convergence guarantee" }, { "doi": "10.2307/2291091", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Kass & Raftery (1995) Bayes factors — finite-sample prior sensitivity analysis" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-doob-convergence-rate-scientific-inference.yaml" }, { "id": "h-doppler-carry-yield-curve-steepness-speculative-parallels", "title": "Steepening of a yield curve segment after option adjustments might be narrated like a differential redshift gradient along a pencil beam — purely pedagogical unless backed by a pre-registered econometric test; treat as speculation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.28, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1086/159674", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.25, "note": "Cosmological redshift context only; no demonstrated finance linkage." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.2, "note": "Pedagogical analogy; not evidence of a shared generative mechanism." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-doppler-carry-yield-curve-steepness-speculative-parallels.yaml" }, { "id": "h-double-network-hydrogel-toughness-sacrificial-bond", "title": "Double-network hydrogel toughness scales as Gc ~ G1 * l_c where G1 is the first network modulus and l_c is the critical strand length for sacrificial bond rupture, predicting a 10-fold toughness increase with each doubling of first-network strand length", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1241214", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Gong et al. (2010) - double network mechanism: first network fractures progressively, dissipating energy" }, { "doi": "10.1039/c4sm00269e", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Creton (2017) - toughening mechanisms in hydrogels: sacrificial bond review" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-double-network-hydrogel-toughness-sacrificial-bond.yaml" }, { "id": "h-droplet-split-binomial-partition-fission-alignment", "title": "Symmetric T-junction splitting cascades under controlled Ca/Re bands yield daughter-volume partitions whose coefficient of variation matches binomial-type branching-process models within tolerance bands distinct from microbial lineage datasets analyzed with identical estimators — falsified if empirical overlap cannot be rejected via permutation tests across paired datasets.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.24, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1063/1.1537519", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Controlled microfluidic dispersion formation anchors deterministic scaling references for splitting protocols." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-droplet-split-binomial-partition-fission-alignment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dual-inheritance-lactase-selection", "title": "The co-spread of dairying culture and the lactase persistence allele constitutes the best-documented case of gene-culture coevolution, and archaeogenomic analysis should show that the LP allele frequency increase follows the dual inheritance Price equation prediction: Δp ≈ s·p(1-p) with selection coefficient s derivable from caloric advantage of milk consumption in Bronze Age pastoralist populations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Boyd & Richerson (1985) Culture and the Evolutionary Process — dual inheritance theory", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "doi": "10.1002/evan.10017", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Henrich & McElreath (2003) Evol Anthropol 12:123 — cultural evolution mechanisms" }, { "note": "Richerson & Boyd (2005) Not by Genes Alone — LP as paradigm case", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dual-inheritance-lactase-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-dual-site-catalyst-breaks-oer-scaling", "title": "Dual-site OER catalysts with heterogeneous adjacent metal pairs (M1-M2 with M1 ≠ M2) can break the universal OHH*/OH* scaling relation by binding OOH* through a bridging configuration that is geometrically decoupled from the single-site OH* binding, reducing OER overpotential below 0.25 V.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Govindarajan et al. (2022) Nature Materials: computed that dual-site RuO₂/IrO₂ heterojunctions show asymmetric intermediate binding that partially breaks the scaling relation in DFT calculations.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Speck et al. (2020) Chem. Sci.: iron-nickel oxide with identified dual-Fe-Ni site shows OER onset potential below 1.45 V vs RHE (overpotential ~ 0.22 V) — among the lowest reported for earth-abundant catalysts.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Many claimed \"scaling-relation-breaking\" catalysts have not been validated with operando measurements; the active site under reaction conditions often differs from as-synthesized structure. The reported low overpotentials may reflect measurement artifacts or surface reconstruction.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-dual-site-catalyst-breaks-oer-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-durotaxis-cancer-metastasis", "title": "Tumour metastasis preferentially occurs toward stiffer tissues (liver, lung, bone) because cancer cells follow durotaxis — mechanosensing-directed migration toward higher substrate stiffness — and stiffness gradients in the tumour microenvironment predict metastatic routes with quantitative accuracy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2006.06.044", "note": "Engler et al. (2006) show cells migrate toward stiffer substrates and that stiffness directs stem cell fate — establishing durotaxis as a real phenomenon with large effect sizes. Primary target organs of metastasis (liver ~1-2 kPa, lung ~2-5 kPa, bone ~25-40 kPa) are among the stiffest soft tissues in the body.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41563-018-0201-x", "note": "Seo et al. (2020) and related studies show stiffened tumour stroma promotes invasion; YAP/TAZ mechanosensors active in stiff microenvironments promote metastatic gene expression programs.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Some metastatic cancers preferentially colonise soft tissues (brain metastases occur in a 1 kPa environment). Durotaxis alone cannot explain all metastatic tropism — organ-specific adhesion molecules, immune environment, and vascular accessibility also determine metastatic preference.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-durotaxis-cancer-metastasis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-early-dark-energy-hubble-tension", "title": "Early dark energy that decays before recombination reduces the sound horizon and reconciles CMB-inferred H0 with local distance ladder measurements without introducing new tensions", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.3, "arxiv": "1907.10625", "note": "Early dark energy model fitting CMB, BAO, and local H0 data (metadata only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "CMB lensing and large-scale structure constraints disfavour most EDE models" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01319-7", "note": "Review of Hubble tension and proposed solutions (metadata link only)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-early-dark-energy-hubble-tension.yaml" }, { "id": "h-early-galaxy-formation-jwst-feedback", "title": "The anomalously massive galaxies at z > 10 observed by JWST are explained by reduced supernova feedback efficiency in the early universe — either due to rapid gas recycling in compact high-redshift disks or bursty star formation that temporarily suppresses feedback — rather than requiring modifications to ΛCDM.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41550-023-02125-9", "note": "Dekel et al. (2023) — \"Blue Nuggets\" model: feedback-free starbursts in compact high-z galaxies naturally produce high stellar mass fractions without violating ΛCDM structure formation.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.adf5307", "note": "Labbe et al. (2023) Science — JWST discovery of massive galaxy candidates at z~7-10; stellar masses 10^10-10^11 M_sun challenging standard models.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-early-galaxy-formation-jwst-feedback.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ecm-stiffness-cancer-invasion-threshold", "title": "There exists a critical ECM stiffness threshold E* ~ 5-15 kPa at which breast epithelial cells switch from a non-invasive to an invasive phenotype via YAP/TAZ-mediated transcriptional reprogramming, independently of oncogenic mutation status.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature10137", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Dupont et al. (2011) Nature — YAP/TAZ nuclear localisation vs. substrate stiffness; threshold behaviour observed" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2006.06.044", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Engler et al. (2006) Cell — stiffness-dependent cell fate; threshold in kPa range" }, { "doi": "10.1038/ncb2547", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Paszek et al. (2005) Cancer Cell — ECM stiffness promotes mammary tumour progression" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ecm-stiffness-cancer-invasion-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ecological-succession-x-markov", "title": "Forest succession Markov chains exhibit spectral gaps (1-λ₂) that scale as g ∝ 1/ln(N_species), predicting that temperate deciduous forests (30-50 tree species) recover from clear-cut disturbance in 80-120 years — matching empirical chronosequence data — while tropical forests (200+ species) require 250-400 years due to smaller spectral gaps", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/1936612", "note": "Horn (1975) — Markovian properties of forest succession; Ecology 56:1401", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Usher (1979) — Markovian approaches to ecological succession; J Animal Ecology 48:413", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ecological-succession-x-markov.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ecology-x-coexistence-theory", "title": "A 50% reduction in interannual rainfall variance (projected under mid-latitude climate change) reduces the storage effect stabilising component Δi by 30–40% in annual plant communities, predicting a corresponding 30–40% reduction in species coexistence time before competitive exclusion", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.31.1.343", "note": "Chesson — storage effect magnitude proportional to environmental variance", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Adler et al. (2006) — climate variability has a weak effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses; PNAS 103:12793", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ecology-x-coexistence-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ecosystem-services-pigouvian-subsidy-biodiversity-market", "title": "Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) set at the marginal ecosystem service value estimated by hedonic pricing (flood protection, water filtration, carbon sequestration) will conserve forest cover at least as efficiently as command- and-control regulations in Costa Rica, the Amazon, and Southeast Asia, and markets for biodiversity credits can reach $100B/year by 2030 with robust MRV.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/387253a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Costanza et al. (1997) — $33-125T/year ecosystem service values provide the ceiling for Pigouvian subsidy rates" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Ferraro & Pattanayak (2006) Conserv Biol — PES schemes in Costa Rica (FONAFIFO) show causal conservation effect vs. counterfactual using matching methods; ~10-17% deforestation reduction" }, { "note": "Dasgupta (2021) — argues PES is the most efficient instrument for ecosystem conservation; regulatory alternatives impose higher deadweight loss", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ecosystem-services-pigouvian-subsidy-biodiversity-market.yaml" }, { "id": "h-eeg-individualized-forward-model-epilepsy", "title": "EEG source localization with individualized skull conductivity maps derived from T2-weighted MRI reduces epileptic focus localization error from >15 mm to <5 mm in subjects with irregular skull morphology, matching intracranial electrode gold-standard accuracy\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-eeg-individualized-forward-model-epilepsy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-eew-kalman-style-updates-tighten-magnitude-posterior-faster-with-dense-networks", "title": "Holding rupture scenario class fixed, doubling effective station density within two rupture lengths of the epicenter halves the median time-to-first magnitude estimate within ±0.5 units compared to sparse-network baselines — dominated by geometric aperture rather than CPU throughput at modern telemetry rates.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100055", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.52, "note": "Survey establishes EEW dependence on network geometry qualitatively." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.38, "note": "Needs quantitative OSSE-style replay across dense vs thinned virtual networks." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-eew-kalman-style-updates-tighten-magnitude-posterior-faster-with-dense-networks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-efficient-coding-natural-statistics-sensory-cortex-universality", "title": "The efficient coding hypothesis holds universally across all primary sensory cortices (V1, A1, S1) and all vertebrate species tested: the neural code in each area is optimally matched (via evolution and development) to the statistical structure of the natural stimuli for that sensory modality, minimizing redundancy and maximizing mutual information under metabolic constraints.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/381607a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Olshausen & Field (1996) Nature — sparse coding of natural images produces Gabor-like V1 simple cell receptive fields matching Barlow's prediction; ICA of natural images gives V1 basis functions" }, { "doi": "10.1162/neco.1997.9.7.1483", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Bell & Sejnowski (1997) Neural Comput — ICA of natural sounds produces auditory filter shapes matching A1 tuning curves — efficient coding predicts A1 properties" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2007.09.034", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Simoncelli & Olshausen (2001 Annual Review) — review of efficient coding predictions for V1, V2, MT; predictions match in 85% of cases tested" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Carandini et al. (2005) J Neurosci — some V1 properties (end-stopping, non-classical surround) are not predicted by efficient coding of second-order statistics alone; higher-order statistics and predictive coding may be required" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-efficient-coding-natural-statistics-sensory-cortex-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-eigenvector-centrality-superspreader-epidemic-prediction", "title": "Eigenvector centrality of the contact network, computed from mobile phone proximity data at the start of an epidemic, predicts individual superspreader status (contributing >80% of secondary cases) with AUC > 0.80, outperforming degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and demographic risk factors.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/3033543", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Freeman (1977) — theoretical framework for centrality measures; no epidemic validation" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lloyd-Smith et al. (2005) Nature — individual variation in R₀ follows negative binomial (k~0.1 for SARS); superspreading is a small fraction of nodes — consistent with high-centrality nodes being superspreaders" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Epidemic threshold β·λ₁(A)/γ = 1 means λ₁ and its eigenvector determine epidemic outcome; eigenvector components directly give susceptibility ranking" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-eigenvector-centrality-superspreader-epidemic-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-eikonal-regularized-inversion-improves-cardiac-activation-map-fidelity", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-eikonal-wavefronts-x-cardiac-activation-mapping` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Finite-difference travel times and eikonal inversion.", "doi": "10.1190/1.1444608" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-eikonal-regularized-inversion-improves-cardiac-activation-map-fidelity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-eis-hodgkin-huxley-parameter-extraction", "title": "Multi-frequency EIS measurements on voltage-clamped excitable cell monolayers can extract Hodgkin-Huxley channel gating parameters (g_Na, g_K, tau_m, tau_h) with accuracy comparable to patch-clamp, enabling label-free high-throughput ion channel pharmacology screening.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lindner et al. (2013) demonstrated that frequency-resolved impedance measurements can distinguish passive membrane resistance from active voltage-gated conductance contributions in cardiomyocyte monolayers — proof of concept for parameter extraction.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "RTCA (Roche Applied Science) platform detects hERG channel block at 10 kHz impedance frequency as a reduction in cell-electrode coupling resistance, demonstrating that channel pharmacology is detectable by EIS.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The ill-posedness of the HH-parameter inverse problem from EIS: without voltage control, measured impedance is a nonlinear convolution of channel kinetics, membrane potential distribution, and cell geometry that may not be uniquely invertible.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-eis-hodgkin-huxley-parameter-extraction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-eis-spectra-constrain-gating-substates", "title": "For expressed hERG channels in oocytes, global fits of admittance spectra across voltages will favor three-state minimal models over two-state models at statistically significant levels when subconductance states exist.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.53, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1113/jphysiol.1952.sp004764", "note": "Canonical conductance-based description compatible with small-signal impedance" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "doi": "10.1002/9783527610426.ch1", "note": "EIS measurement and interpretation toolkit transferable to membranes" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-eis-spectra-constrain-gating-substates.yaml" }, { "id": "h-elastic-net-prs-retraining-with-ancestry-balancing-reduces-calibration-drift", "title": "Ancestry-balanced elastic-net retraining reduces out-of-sample PRS calibration error versus static models.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Elastic net supports correlated feature groups.", "doi": "10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00503.x" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-elastic-net-prs-retraining-with-ancestry-balancing-reduces-calibration-drift.yaml" }, { "id": "h-elasticity-analysis-conservation-prioritisation", "title": "Elasticity analysis of the Leslie matrix (proportional sensitivity of λ₁ to vital rate changes) reliably identifies the life-history transition that most effectively increases population growth rate, and conservation interventions targeting high-elasticity stages will achieve faster population recovery than interventions targeting other stages, across a broad range of taxa\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "de Kroon et al. (1986) established elasticity analysis; comparative studies across plant and animal species (Silvertown et al. 1993) show consistent patterns: long-lived species have high elasticity on adult survival, short-lived on fecundity." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Recovery plans for loggerhead sea turtle (Crowder et al. 1994, Science) based on elasticity analysis showed adult survival had 3× higher elasticity than any other stage — correctly predicting that TEDs (turtle excluder devices) protecting adults would be more effective than nest protection." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Elasticity analysis assumes linear Leslie matrix (density-independent rates); at low population sizes, density-dependent processes (Allee effects) can make fecundity-targeted interventions more effective than elasticity analysis predicts." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-elasticity-analysis-conservation-prioritisation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-electric-catalyst-preheating-eliminates-cold-start-emissions", "title": "Electrically preheating the catalytic converter to light-off temperature before engine start will eliminate >75% of total trip emissions for hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles where grid electricity is available, making EHC cost-effective at current carbon prices.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Cold start contributes ~80% of regulated emissions per trip (HC, CO, NOx); eliminating cold-start phase would reduce per-trip emissions by ~80%" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Electrically heated catalysts (EHC) demonstrated in Mercedes and BMW 48V mild hybrid systems; CO emission reduction >90% in cold-start certification tests" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "EU7 regulations (effective 2026) include off-cycle cold-start emission requirements that cannot be met with passive systems alone — creating regulatory pull for EHC" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "EHC requires 1-2 kW for 30-60 seconds; in hybrid vehicles with small 48V batteries, this may conflict with cabin heating and acceleration demands" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-electric-catalyst-preheating-eliminates-cold-start-emissions.yaml" }, { "id": "h-electrochemical-co2-copper-selectivity", "title": "The selectivity of electrochemical CO2 reduction to C2+ products on copper is controlled by the local pH and CO coverage at the catalyst surface, such that maintaining local pH > 12 and CO coverage > 0.3 ML simultaneously via pulsed potential waveforms can achieve > 70% Faradaic efficiency to ethylene at practical current densities > 300 mA/cm².\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aad0671", "note": "Kuhl et al. (2012) — copper produces 16 distinct CO2 reduction products; C2+ selectivity depends strongly on potential and local environment.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41929-021-00614-6", "note": "Gabardo et al. (2022) — high local pH via KOH electrolyte promotes C2+ products; Faradaic efficiency 60-70% at 200 mA/cm².\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-electrochemical-co2-copper-selectivity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-emergence-multiple-realisability-causal-autonomy", "title": "Higher-level scientific explanations are causally autonomous (not merely convenient summaries) when the higher-level properties are multiply realisable by many distinct lower-level configurations — the same higher- level pattern has causal powers that cannot be predicted by tracking any particular lower-level realisation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s11229-009-9671-0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Fodor (1974, reprinted with commentary): multiple realisability of mental states across physical substrates as argument for autonomous psychology — the canonical formulation of the emergence-through- realisation argument.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/bjps/axp013", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Mitchell (2009): integrative pluralism in biology — higher-level regularities (selection, fitness) require different explanatory resources than molecular biology; neither level is dispensable.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s11229-013-0222-5", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.52, "note": "Batterman & Rice (2014) universality and minimal models: same macro-level regularities (renormalisation group fixed points) arise from very different micro-level mechanisms — a formal case for macro-level causal autonomy.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-emergence-multiple-realisability-causal-autonomy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-emotion-construction-core-affect-appraisal", "title": "Basic emotions are not discrete biological categories with dedicated neural circuits but are constructed from domain-general core affect (valence × arousal) and conceptual knowledge, with no unique neural signatures for fear, anger, or disgust", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1177/1745691615604894", "note": "Barrett (2017) — theory of constructed emotion, against basic emotion theory", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1017/S0140525X00023359", "note": "Ekman (1992) — basic emotions and universal facial expressions", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1177/0956797612463586", "note": "Lindquist et al. (2012) — meta-analysis shows no unique neural signatures for basic emotions", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-emotion-construction-core-affect-appraisal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-emotion-constructivist-core-affect-model", "title": "Emotions are not discrete natural kinds with dedicated neural circuits but are constructed from combinations of core affect dimensions (valence, arousal) and conceptual knowledge — consistent with the theory of constructed emotion (Barrett 2017), predicting that brain imaging will show no consistently distinct neural signatures for basic emotion categories across individuals and cultures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Barrett (2017) How Emotions Are Made — theory of constructed emotion", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "note": "Lindquist et al. (2012) Behav Brain Sci 35:121 — meta-analysis of emotion in brain", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Ekman (1992) Cognit Emot 6:169 — basic emotions, discrete view", "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-emotion-constructivist-core-affect-model.yaml" }, { "id": "h-endangered-language-documentation-multimedia", "title": "Endangered language documentation for future research is maximised by prioritising multimedia naturalistic corpus collection (spontaneous discourse, narrative, and conversation) over formal elicitation, because computational linguistic analysis tools require naturalistic data for morphological discovery and prosodic reconstruction that formal elicitation systematically undersupplies.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1353/lan.2001.0048", "note": "Himmelmann (2006) — documentary linguistics framework; naturalistic corpus essential for morphological and prosodic analysis; elicitation insufficient for discourse grammar.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/S0022226720000043", "note": "Cohn et al. (2021) — computational tools (forced alignment, morphological analysers) trained on naturalistic speech outperform elicitation-trained tools on held-out naturalistic data from endangered languages.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1353/lan.2007.0225", "note": "Bird & Simons (2003) — OLAC metadata standards; interoperability of endangered language archives requires standardised naturalistic corpus metadata.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-endangered-language-documentation-multimedia.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ensemble-smoothers-improve-precision-oncology-trajectory-calibration", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-ensemble-smoother-x-precision-oncology-state-estimation` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Ensemble assimilation foundations.", "doi": "10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2776:AENRFA>2.0.CO;2" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ensemble-smoothers-improve-precision-oncology-trajectory-calibration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-enso-predictability-nonlinear-phase-locking", "title": "The fundamental predictability limit of ENSO beyond 12 months is determined by the nonlinear interaction between the annual cycle and the ENSO oscillation that produces chaotic phase slipping, with maximum predictability occurring when ENSO is phase-locked to boreal winter and minimum predictability during the spring predictability barrier.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<3283:ICEATC>2.0.CO;2", "note": "Jin et al. (1994) — low-order ENSO model showing chaotic behavior from annual cycle interaction; Lyapunov exponent analysis sets predictability limit.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00445.1", "note": "Lopez & Kirtman (2014) — spring predictability barrier tied to seasonal phase-locking; predictive skill drops sharply for forecasts initialized in boreal spring.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-enso-predictability-nonlinear-phase-locking.yaml" }, { "id": "h-entropy-production-x-living-systems", "title": "Living systems operate near a saddle point in entropy production rate space: cell metabolic networks minimise σ at homeostasis (Prigogine) but evolutionary selection maximises sustainable σ, resolving the MEP/minEP controversy via timescale separation", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/s12064-010-0097-5", "note": "Entropy production in biological dissipative structures — Prigogine framework", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "West et al. (1997) metabolic scaling — 3/4 power law consistent with entropy throughput optimisation", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-entropy-production-x-living-systems.yaml" }, { "id": "h-entropy-rate-x-language-model-perplexity", "title": "Sliding-window nonparametric entropy-rate estimates on temporally stratified corpora will bound perplexity improvements attributable to domain shift tracking versus raw entropy reduction — producing measurable gaps between LM perplexity and entropy-rate lower bounds over matched slices.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.44, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Shannon entropy foundations for comparing perplexity to entropy rates" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-entropy-rate-x-language-model-perplexity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-enz-crossover-curvature-predicts-local-q-maximum-thin-film-cavity", "title": "At fixed thickness and substrate index, the sharpest ENZ-related resonance linewidth minimum tracks the maximum of |d(Re ε)/dω| near loss-compensated crossover rather than the deepest Re ε→0 point alone — dispersion curvature dominates optimal Q when Im ε is monotone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.44, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nphoton.2016.293", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.48, "note": "ENZ phenomenology emphasizes dispersion engineering." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.33, "note": "Requires coupled Lorentz–Drude fits with radiation channels measured separately." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-enz-crossover-curvature-predicts-local-q-maximum-thin-film-cavity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-enzyme-kinetics-x-michaelis-menten", "title": "Metabolic pathway enzymes are evolutionarily tuned so that their Km values match physiological substrate concentrations, placing each enzyme in the linear (unsaturated) regime to minimize resource waste and maximize pathway control coefficient\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1432-1033.1994.tb18811.x", "note": "Heinrich & Schuster (1994) - The regulation of cellular systems; metabolic control analysis", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bar-Even et al. (2011) - The moderately efficient enzyme: evolutionary and physicochemical trends; Biochemistry 50:4402; doi:10.1021/bi2002289", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-enzyme-kinetics-x-michaelis-menten.yaml" }, { "id": "h-enzyme-surface-catalyst-design-principles", "title": "Enzyme variants designed using the Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi volcano plot optimality criterion (DeltaG_dag minimized at DeltaG_ads = -DeltaG_rxn/2) achieve k_cat values within 10-fold of the wild-type enzyme when DeltaG_rxn is held constant by substrate choice.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1039/tf9353100875", "note": "Eyring (1935) — transition state theory" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-enzyme-surface-catalyst-design-principles.yaml" }, { "id": "h-epidemic-ar1-tipping-warning", "title": "Rising lag-1 autocorrelation (AR1) in weekly disease incidence time series provides a statistically significant early-warning signal of epidemic emergence in climate-stressed populations, analogous to AR1 rise before climate tipping points", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsif.2012.0758", "type": "supporting", "note": "Dakos et al. (2012) — AR1 and variance rise before critical transitions across ecology and Earth systems" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1153842", "type": "supporting", "note": "Lenton et al. (2008) — tipping elements framework; early-warning theory" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41467-019-09735-6", "type": "related", "note": "Ryan et al. (2019) — climate-driven dengue expansion; incidence time series available for analysis" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1112349108", "type": "supporting", "note": "Drake & Griffen (2010) — early warning signals of extinction in laboratory populations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-epidemic-ar1-tipping-warning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-epidemic-ensemble-kalman-filter", "title": "An EnKF with Poisson observation model and time-varying β(t) augmented state will achieve CRPS scores 15-25% better than EpiEstim for real-time Rt estimation during the early exponential phase of novel pathogen outbreaks", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2006520117", "note": "Shaman & Karspeck (2012) EnKF for influenza forecasting", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1098/rsos.171833", "note": "Birrell et al. (2018) Evidence synthesis for stochastic epidemic models", "confidence": 0.67 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-epidemic-ensemble-kalman-filter.yaml" }, { "id": "h-epigenetic-attractor-scrnaseq-landscape", "title": "RNA velocity vector fields from scRNA-seq data accurately recover the Waddington attractor landscape, with predicted barrier heights correlated with reprogramming efficiency across cell type pairs\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1167609", "note": "Huang et al. (2009) - Cancer attractors; cell types as attractors of GRN dynamics", "confidence": 0.81 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bergen et al. (2020) - Generalizing RNA velocity to transient cell states through dynamical modeling; Nat Biotechnol — scVelo", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Weinreb et al. (2018) - Fundamental limits on dynamic inference from single-cell snapshots; PNAS — limitations of RNA velocity for landscape reconstruction", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-epigenetic-attractor-scrnaseq-landscape.yaml" }, { "id": "h-epigenetic-reprogramming-lifespan-extension", "title": "Cyclic partial reprogramming using Oct4, Sox2, and Klf4 (OSK) without c-Myc in post-mitotic neurons extends mouse lifespan by 15-20% when initiated at midlife, by resetting the Horvath epigenetic clock without inducing pluripotency or increasing cancer risk.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-023-05892-5", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Partial reprogramming in vivo reverses epigenetic age in retinal ganglion cells and restores visual function; OSK expression resets clock without teratoma formation, supporting safety of cyclic reprogramming.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2022.12.028", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Yang et al. (2023) show systemic OSK expression via AAV extends mouse healthspan and reverses multiple age-related phenotypes; consistent with epigenetic clock causally driving aging.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-epigenetic-reprogramming-lifespan-extension.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ergodic-theory-x-statistical-mechanics", "title": "The many-body localization transition in 1D disordered spin chains is a true phase transition in the thermodynamic limit, with a critical disorder strength W_c that scales logarithmically with system size L, distinguishing it from a finite-size crossover.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.86, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.73.2875", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Basko, Aleiner & Altshuler (2006) - MBL in interacting systems; argument for sharp transition" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pal & Huse (2010) - many-body localization phase in random XXZ chains; finite-size analysis shows transition", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Suntajs et al. (2020) - finite-size drifts in MBL: transition may drift to infinite disorder in thermodynamic limit; PRL", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ergodic-theory-x-statistical-mechanics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-evtol-noise-rotor-spacing", "title": "eVTOL aircraft can achieve community-acceptable noise below 65 dBA at 500m distance through distributed electric propulsion with blade-passing frequency optimization and acoustic phase cancellation — but the fundamental acoustic power floor set by actuator disk theory prevents achieving helicopter-equivalent noise reduction at equivalent payload.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pascioni et al. (2019) NASA acoustic characterization of distributed electric propulsion: phased rotors reduce BPF tones 10–15 dB vs. in-phase", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (1969) aeroacoustic formula: noise ∝ tip Mach^5 × chord — low-tip-speed distributed rotors fundamentally quieter", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Rogers & Oreskes (2021) actuator disk theory: noise floor W ∝ T^{3/2}/A for hover — increasing rotor number at fixed disk loading does not reduce power noise", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-evtol-noise-rotor-spacing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-exoplanet-spectral-retrieval-bayesian", "title": "Neural-network forward model emulators for JWST atmospheric retrieval will reduce computation time by 100-1000x with <10% loss in posterior accuracy, enabling same-day real-time retrieval for transiting exoplanet follow-up", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/680119", "note": "Madhusudhan & Seager (2009) atmospheric retrieval framework", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cobb et al. (2019) An ensemble of Bayesian neural networks for exoplanetary atmosphere retrieval. AJ 158:33", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-exoplanet-spectral-retrieval-bayesian.yaml" }, { "id": "h-expander-graphs-x-error-correcting-codes", "title": "Tanner graph spectral gap is a stronger predictor of LDPC code threshold performance under belief propagation than variable or check node degree distributions alone, and codes constructed from Ramanujan graphs achieve belief propagation thresholds within 0.1 dB of the Shannon limit.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/18.910575", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.87, "note": "Sipser & Spielman (1996) - expander codes achieve linear distance; spectral gap controls code parameters" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Richardson & Urbanke (2001) - density evolution: threshold analysis of LDPC codes under BP; confirms spectral structure importance", "confidence": 0.84 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Leverrier, Tillich & Zemor (2022) - quantum expander codes with constant rate and linear distance; Nature 2022", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-expander-graphs-x-error-correcting-codes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-extended-contact-prejudice-reduction-mechanism", "title": "Intergroup contact reduces prejudice most reliably when it involves the extended contact effect (knowing an ingroup member who has an outgroup friend) rather than direct contact alone, and this effect scales with social network bridging ties in the community — making network density of cross-group ties a policy target for scaling prejudice reduction across diverse societies.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/0022-3514.73.1.73", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Wright et al. (1997) JPSP — extended contact effect: knowing ingroup member with outgroup friend reduces outgroup prejudice almost as strongly as direct contact; mechanism: norm updating (ingroup norms shift toward acceptance) not category knowledge\n" }, { "doi": "10.1037/0033-2909.132.6.951", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Pettigrew & Tropp (2006) meta-analysis of 515 studies (N = 250,000+): contact reduces prejudice (d = -0.40); optimal conditions (Allport's criteria) more than double effect size; friendship quality is the strongest moderator\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.jesp.2019.03.010", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Paluck et al. (2019) — sociometric network intervention in NJ schools: placing social-norm-influential students in cross-group friendships spreads reduced prejudice to non-contact classmates through social influence; confirms network pathway\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-extended-contact-prejudice-reduction-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-extinction-debt-master-equation-prediction", "title": "The master equation for stochastic birth-death processes predicts that extinction debt (species committed to extinction despite current positive population size) scales as the ratio of demographic to environmental stochasticity variance, and this ratio can be measured non-invasively from time-series count data.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198525257.001.0001", "note": "Lande et al. (2003) — stochastic population dynamics theory including separation of demographic and environmental stochasticity; provides framework for the hypothesis.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.tree.2010.01.003", "note": "Traill et al. (2010) — review of minimum viable population estimates; shows empirical MVPs span 100-1000 without mechanistic prediction of threshold.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "van Kampen (2007) Stochastic Processes — systematic expansion of master equation in 1/N provides analytic predictions for extinction time as exp(N) × f(sigma_D/sigma_E).\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-extinction-debt-master-equation-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-extinction-time-exponential-k-demographic-stochasticity-confirmed", "title": "The mean extinction time formula T_ext ≈ exp(2rK/σ²)/r from the stochastic logistic model correctly predicts (within one order of magnitude) the observed extinction waiting times in laboratory populations of model organisms across a range of K and σ² values, validating the mathematical framework underlying IUCN minimum viable population assessments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature07265", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Melbourne & Hastings (2008) — experimental test in Tribolium; exponential dependence of T_ext on K confirmed; demographic stochasticity dominant\n" }, { "doi": "10.1086/285580", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lande (1993) — derives T_ext formula analytically; validated in concept" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.tree.2010.05.008", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Ovaskainen & Meerson (2010) — review of extinction mathematics and evidence" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-extinction-time-exponential-k-demographic-stochasticity-confirmed.yaml" }, { "id": "h-extreme-value-theory-x-risk-modeling", "title": "Financial market crashes (S&P 500 daily returns below -5%) follow a Fréchet extreme value distribution with tail index ξ ≈ 0.3±0.05, implying infinite kurtosis and that 1-in-100-year losses are systematically underestimated by 40-60% by Gaussian VaR models across all asset classes", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511870156", "note": "Coles (2001) — Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values; GPD framework for financial tail estimation", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Longin (1996) — The asymptotic distribution of extreme stock market returns; J Business 69:383; Fréchet domain confirmed for US equity returns", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-extreme-value-theory-x-risk-modeling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-face-recognition-fusiform-holistic-coding", "title": "The fusiform face area implements holistic face coding via a population code in which identity is represented as a trajectory through a high-dimensional eigenface space, and the perceptual inversion effect is explained by disruption of the learned principal component axes when face parts are presented in non-canonical spatial relationships.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1177202", "note": "Chang & Tsao (2017) — face cells in macaque IT encode identity as axis distance in a 50-dimensional face space; linear read-out of identity confirmed.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.96.5.2451", "note": "Kanwisher et al. (1997) — FFA shows face-selective response; inversion reduces FFA response, consistent with disrupted holistic coding.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2011.09.011", "note": "Rossion (2013) — holistic face processing review; composite effect measures holistic coding; disrupted by inversion and part-isolation.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-face-recognition-fusiform-holistic-coding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fano-q-factor-tracks-radiative-darkness-order-parameter", "title": "Define an empirical darkness scalar D = Γ_rad/(Γ_rad + Γ_abs) extracted from coupled-mode fits; across geometric families of split-ring / oligomer metamaterials, peak loaded Q scales approximately as 1/(1−D) until absorption dominates.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.42, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nmat2696", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.48, "note": "Fano phenomenology supports interference-controlled linewidths." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.36, "note": "Scaling law is **speculative** until tested across unified fabrication batches." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fano-q-factor-tracks-radiative-darkness-order-parameter.yaml" }, { "id": "h-federated-ensembles-improve-cross-site-epidemic-generalization", "title": "Federated ensembles with drift-aware weighting improve out-of-site epidemic forecast calibration over vanilla FedAvg aggregation.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1602.05629", "note": "Distributed learning baseline for decentralization.", "confidence": 0.69 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-federated-ensembles-improve-cross-site-epidemic-generalization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-feigenbaum-universality-quantum-maps-period-doubling", "title": "The Feigenbaum universality of period-doubling routes to chaos (δ ≈ 4.669, α ≈ 2.502) extends to quantum maps via the quantum-classical correspondence: quantized versions of the logistic map and the Hénon map exhibit the same universal period-doubling ratios in the semiclassical limit (ℏ → 0, N_eff → ∞), with quantum corrections suppressed as O(ℏ) relative to classical universal behavior.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.63.819", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Ott, Antonsen & Hanson (1989) PRL — quantum version of the kicked rotor shows period-doubling; Feigenbaum ratio approaches 4.669 as effective Planck constant ℏ_eff → 0" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.41.1172", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Grempel, Fishman & Prange (1990) PRA — quantized chaotic maps; Feigenbaum universality holds in the classical limit; deviations are O(ℏ_eff²)" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Haake (2010) Quantum Signatures of Chaos (3rd ed.) — comprehensive treatment of quantum chaos, including period-doubling in quantum maps; Chapter 7 on quantum-classical correspondence near bifurcations" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Quantum interference can destroy period-doubling bifurcations for small ℏ_eff: tunneling between period-2 orbits can blur the bifurcation point, requiring ℏ_eff ≪ (r_∞ - r_1) to observe the full cascade" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-feigenbaum-universality-quantum-maps-period-doubling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fermentation-nad-ratio-pathway-selection-thermodynamic", "title": "In Saccharomyces cerevisiae under anaerobic conditions, the fermentation product distribution (ethanol:glycerol ratio) is uniquely determined by the thermodynamic requirement ΔG < −5 kJ/mol for each step, with no free kinetic parameters, when intracellular NAD⁺/NADH ratio is measured in situ.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1112325108", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Flamholz 2012 – eQuilibrator; thermodynamic constraints predict metabolic feasibility" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nchembio.971", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Henry 2007 – TFA predicts flux distributions in E. coli consistent with thermodynamics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fermentation-nad-ratio-pathway-selection-thermodynamic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ferroelectric-fatigue-oxygen-vacancy-pinning", "title": "Ferroelectric fatigue in perovskite thin films is caused by oxygen vacancy accumulation at domain walls under cyclic electric fields, which pins domain wall motion rather than suppressing nucleation; the fatigue rate is proportional to the oxygen vacancy mobility and the density of pre-existing domain wall pinning sites, and can be reduced by engineering low-vacancy-mobility electrode interfaces.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1063/1.366471", "note": "Scott et al. (1991) — fatigue in PZT correlates with oxygen vacancy concentration; reducing atmospheres accelerate fatigue; oxide electrode mitigation works.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.94.107601", "note": "Genenko et al. (2005) — oxygen vacancy migration simulations in PZT; accumulation at domain walls reduces wall mobility and switchable polarisation.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.mattod.2015.03.015", "note": "Tagantsev et al. (2010) — domain wall pinning review; multiple mechanisms; oxygen vacancies dominant in oxide films; conductive oxide electrodes mitigate.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ferroelectric-fatigue-oxygen-vacancy-pinning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fibrosis-reversibility-mechanosensing", "title": "Established organ fibrosis is reversible when matrix-activated myofibroblast mechanosensing (via YAP/TAZ-MRTF-SRF axis) is pharmacologically interrupted, allowing myofibroblast de-activation and matrix metalloproteinase-driven ECM remodelling to restore tissue architecture.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2012.01.010", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.81, "note": "Dupont et al. (2011) Nature — YAP/TAZ sense ECM stiffness via mechanical forces on actin cytoskeleton; high stiffness activates YAP/TAZ transcription of fibrogenic genes including CTGF and CYR61, maintaining myofibroblast identity\n" }, { "doi": "10.1172/JCI58569", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Bhatt et al. (2012) J Clin Invest — bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice is partially reversed by anti-LOXL2 antibody (matrix crosslink inhibitor) even in established fibrosis, reducing collagen content and restoring lung compliance\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41591-019-0490-1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.67, "note": "Sofroniew (2018) — in CNS, astrocyte scar is not permanent; RhoA/ROCK inhibition promotes scar resolution and axon regrowth, suggesting mechanosensing as universal target\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fibrosis-reversibility-mechanosensing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-financial-contagion-core-periphery-topology", "title": "Systemic financial risk is primarily determined by the core-periphery topology of interbank networks: robust-yet-fragile systems arise when a small core of highly interconnected banks amplifies contagion that a periphery of weakly connected banks cannot absorb, and this structure is detectable from pre-crisis network centrality measures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.03.016", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Gai & Kapadia (2010) model: diversification paradox — increased interbank connectivity reduces individual bank failure probability but increases systemic contagion risk above threshold connectivity density; robust- yet-fragile property demonstrated analytically.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/rfs/hhv086", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Acemoglu et al. (2015) analytical result: dense networks are more resilient below a contagion threshold but amplify shocks above it; core-periphery structure is the critical topological feature.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1257/aer.103.7.3115", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.63, "note": "Elliott et al. (2014) integration-diversification model: network integration (cross-holdings) first reduces then increases discontinuous failure cascades — a phase transition in failure probability.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-financial-contagion-core-periphery-topology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-financialisation-investment-crowding", "title": "The rise of financial sector GDP share above 8% crowds out real economy investment through talent misallocation and short-termism, with the crowding-out measurable as a negative relationship between financial sector size and manufacturing R&D intensity across OECD countries.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Cecchetti & Kharroubi (2012) BIS working paper: financial sector growth above threshold negatively predicts TFP growth in OECD panel", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Philippon & Reshef (2012) financial wages above manufacturing wages by 50% signal misallocation of human capital", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Levine (2005) 'Finance and Growth' review: financial depth positively predicts long-run growth across 80 countries", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-financialisation-investment-crowding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fire-regime-threshold-fuel-structure", "title": "Fire regime transitions in grassland-forest boundaries are controlled by a critical fuel connectivity threshold that follows percolation theory: when the fraction of flammable cells exceeds the percolation threshold p_c ≈ 0.593 for a 2D lattice, fire spreads as a phase transition producing the observed bimodality in burned area distributions that separates fire-maintained from fire-suppressed states.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1890/13-0648.1", "note": "Archibald et al. (2013) — global fire regimes bimodal distribution in burned fraction; savanna-forest bistability linked to fire feedbacks.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1165000", "note": "Staver, Archibald & Levin (2011) — fire-vegetation feedbacks create alternative stable states; critical transitions at savanna-forest boundaries.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.56.7313", "note": "Clar et al. (1996) — forest fire percolation model; branching ratio at critical density reproduces power-law fire-size distributions.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fire-regime-threshold-fuel-structure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-firm-equilibrium-stat-mech-analogy", "title": "The equilibrium effort distribution of employees in a firm follows a Boltzmann distribution with effective temperature set by performance measurement noise, and total agency costs scale as the free energy gap between the first-best and observed equilibrium — a prediction that can be tested with compensation and productivity panel data", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0304-405x(76)90026-x", "note": "Jensen & Meckling (1976) — agency cost decomposition is the empirical quantity the free energy predicts", "confidence": 0.52 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mirrlees (1976) optimal incentive theory — derives contract from constrained optimisation equivalent to free energy minimisation", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bouchaud & Mezard (2000) wealth condensation — statistical mechanics of economic inequality provides methodological precedent", "confidence": 0.58 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-firm-equilibrium-stat-mech-analogy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-first-passage-hitting-time-models-extend-clinical-warning-lead-time", "title": "First-passage-time risk models provide longer and better-calibrated clinical deterioration warning lead-times than fixed-threshold scorecards.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-018-0263-8", "note": "Clinical early warning benchmark context.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-first-passage-hitting-time-models-extend-clinical-warning-lead-time.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fiscal-multiplier-credit-constraints", "title": "The fiscal multiplier exceeds 1.5 during recessions when the central bank is at the zero lower bound and household credit constraints are binding, but falls below 0.5 during expansions — the state-dependent multiplier hypothesis is now supported by sufficient empirical evidence to be treated as established.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Auerbach & Gorodnichenko (2012) state-dependent multiplier estimates: 2.5 in recession, 0.6 in expansion using smooth transition VAR", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ramey & Zubairy (2018) defense spending multiplier 1.5 at ZLB vs 0.7 in normal times — consistent with state-dependence", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Barro & Redlick (2011) wartime multiplier 0.4–0.7 regardless of state — disputes state-dependence at large scale", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fiscal-multiplier-credit-constraints.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fisher-information-optimized-eit-electrodes-improve-lesion-detectability", "title": "EIT acquisition protocols optimized for Fisher-information objectives yield improved small-lesion detectability compared with standard adjacent-drive schemes at fixed acquisition time.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.59, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Inverse-problem uncertainty framework supports information-driven design choices." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fisher-information-optimized-eit-electrodes-improve-lesion-detectability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fisher-kpp-front-models-improve-wound-closure-time-forecasting", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-fisher-kpp-fronts-x-wound-healing-closure-forecasting` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Population-dynamics baseline supporting spread-rate and coexistence modeling context.", "doi": "10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00503.x" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fisher-kpp-front-models-improve-wound-closure-time-forecasting.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fisher-optimal-dose-grid-reduces-parameter-variance-simulation", "title": "In simulated Emax and sigmoid dose-response studies, dose grids chosen by Fisher-information criteria will reduce median EC50 estimator variance by at least 20 percent versus equally spaced safe-dose grids at fixed sample size; falsified if gains vanish under mild model misspecification.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.4, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Fisher (1922) foundational likelihood/statistical estimation paper." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fisher-optimal-dose-grid-reduces-parameter-variance-simulation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fisher-ricci-price-covariance-analogy-calibration", "title": "When evolutionary simulations embed traits on an empirical Fisher-metric manifold, curvature summaries correlate more tightly with Price covariance flux than ad hoc Ricci metaphors — falsified if curvature–covariance rank correlations stay below 0.25 across replicate ensembles (**speculative quantitative probe only**).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.22, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1420-9101.2012.02498.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Price-equation formal reference points for measurable covariance partitions." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fisher-ricci-price-covariance-analogy-calibration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fisher-speed-limit-selection", "title": "Artificial selection responses across taxa saturate the Fisher-information speed limit V_A within 10%, and departures from saturation are predicted by the ratio of genetic drift (Ne) to selection intensity — confirming that natural selection is information-geometrically near-optimal in large populations and drift-limited in small ones.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "The breeder's equation R = h^2 * S already implicitly contains the Fisher speed limit: V_A = h^2 * V_P (additive genetic variance). The response R per generation equals V_A * beta (selection gradient). This saturates the Fisher bound in infinite populations. The question is whether finite Ne and epistasis reduce R below V_A * beta in practice.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Long-term selection experiments (Illinois long-term selection for oil in maize, >100 generations; Drosophila body size experiments; E. coli LTEE) show sustained response over many generations, suggesting V_A is maintained and the Fisher bound is not permanently exceeded. Systematic comparison to the exact Fisher bound has not been done.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Epistasis and gene-by-environment interactions mean V_A (and hence the Fisher information) changes as allele frequencies change under selection. In strong selection, V_A may decline faster than the breeder's equation predicts — the \"Bulmer effect.\" The Fisher speed limit is therefore not static; it co-evolves with the population. A static speed limit comparison may be systematically wrong, and the hypothesis requires fitting the dynamic Fisher information trajectory rather than a snapshot.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fisher-speed-limit-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fitts-law-bci-pointer-information-bandwidth-limit", "title": "Fitts' law applies universally to brain-computer interface (BCI) cursor control: the information throughput of BCI pointing systems is bounded by the cortical motor channel capacity (~4 bits/second for intracortical BCIs, ~1 bit/second for EEG BCIs) regardless of the decoding algorithm used, because the bottleneck is biological (neural variability) rather than computational.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature06994", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Hochberg et al. (2012) Nature — BrainGate2 intracortical BCI achieves ~3.5 bits/second cursor control throughput (Fitts' law analysis); performance degrades slowly over months" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2011.03.020", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Kim et al. (2011) Neuron — optimal linear decoder for motor cortex spike trains; information rate ceiling ~4 bits/second in M1 with 100-electrode array; consistent with Fitts' law prediction" }, { "doi": "10.1152/jn.00869.2014", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Gilja et al. (2015) J Neurophysiol — ReFIT-Kalman decoder for BCI cursor control; achieves 4.5 bits/second Fitts' throughput — approaches M1 information rate ceiling" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Nuyujukian et al. (2018) PLoS ONE — high-performance BCI in rhesus macaque achieves ~6.3 bits/second Fitts' throughput, slightly exceeding previous human estimates; may indicate species differences or decoder improvements approaching new ceiling" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fitts-law-bci-pointer-information-bandwidth-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-flagellar-motor-proton-coupling-cryo", "title": "Cryo-EM of the bacterial flagellar motor at sub-3-angstrom resolution will reveal a rocker-switch proton relay mechanism in MotA that couples Asp32 protonation to 100-pm conformational changes driving ring rotation\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rsif.2006.0133", "note": "Berg (2003) - The rotary motor of bacterial flagella; Annu Rev Biochem — proton-coupled torque mechanism overview", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Deme et al. (2020) - Structures of the stator complex MotAB of Campylobacter jejuni in lipid bilayers; Nat Microbiol 5:1559 — first cryo-EM of stator", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Santiveri et al. (2020) - Structure and function of stator units of the bacterial flagellar motor; Cell 183:244 — conformational changes in MotA", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-flagellar-motor-proton-coupling-cryo.yaml" }, { "id": "h-flagellar-motor-stator-assembly-pmf-dependent-mechanosensing", "title": "Flagellar motor stator assembly is a mechanosensitive process: stators are recruited from a cytoplasmic pool in response to load (torque demand), with PMF controlling the free energy of stator-peptidoglycan binding ΓÇö making the motor a biological torque sensor that self-optimizes stator number for current mechanical load.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Lele et al. (2013) Nature Chemical Biology: sudden motor speed change triggers rapid stator exchange ΓÇö stator number responds to load within seconds" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Tipping et al. (2013): reducing PMF reduces stator number reversibly; restoring PMF recruits stators ΓÇö PMF controls stator binding thermodynamics" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Beeby et al. (2016) PNAS: evolutionary variation in stator number (H. pylori has 17 stators vs. E. coli 11) correlates with viscosity of native environment ΓÇö suggesting adaptation of stator number to load" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "The precise mechanism of load sensing (does FliG or C-ring deform under load to signal stator recruitment?) has not been directly demonstrated; may be a simpler PMF-only effect" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-flagellar-motor-stator-assembly-pmf-dependent-mechanosensing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-flexible-stoichiometry-p-limitation-gyre", "title": "Subtropical ocean gyres maintain high C:P ratios because P-limited phytoplankton downregulate ribosome synthesis, producing cells with 50-100% higher C:P than Redfield, measurable via flow cytometry and ICP-MS", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0805876105", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Optimal stoichiometry theory predicts high C:P under P-limitation" }, { "doi": "10.1038/ngeo434", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Weber & Deutsch (2010) - ocean C:P ratios vary systematically with growth rate and nutrient availability" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-flexible-stoichiometry-p-limitation-gyre.yaml" }, { "id": "h-flocking-topological-k7-visual-attention", "title": "The topological interaction number k ~ 7 in starling murmurations is set by the capacity of avian visual attention: raptor-threat tracking and social monitoring saturate avian attentional resources at ~7 simultaneously tracked objects, and experimental enrichment of predator threat density will increase k toward the attention limit while reduction of threat will decrease k.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.66, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0711437105", "note": "Ballerini et al. (2008) - topological distance k ~ 6-7 in starling murmurations", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Miller (1956) - magical number seven plus or minus two; attention capacity limit", "confidence": 0.58 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-flocking-topological-k7-visual-attention.yaml" }, { "id": "h-flood-basalt-ozone-kill-mechanism", "title": "The primary mass extinction kill mechanism from large igneous province eruptions is stratospheric ozone depletion from halogen (HCl, HBr) emissions rather than climate change, and the temporal pattern of extinction should correlate with eruption-phase halogen flux rather than total CO2 or SO2 output.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Black et al. (2014, Science) showed Siberian Traps volatile emissions included Cl and F equivalent to >6x the global stratospheric ozone column; modeled ozone depletion would produce UV radiation increases lethal to surface ecosystems.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mercury anomalies in End-Permian boundary sections correlate with LIP volcanism; mercury is co-emitted with halogens from basaltic degassing, supporting halogen flux as the kill mechanism proxy.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Whether Siberian Traps magmas released halogens to the stratosphere (vs. tropospheric scrubbing by water) depends on eruption column height models that are poorly constrained for flood basalt fissure eruptions, which are lower-intensity than explosive eruptions.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-flood-basalt-ozone-kill-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-floquet-instability-metrics-improve-seasonal-epi-intervention-timing", "title": "Floquet-instability metrics identify intervention windows that reduce seasonal epidemic peak incidence better than fixed-calendar policies.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2009.2207", "note": "Seasonal forcing in infectious disease dynamics.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-floquet-instability-metrics-improve-seasonal-epi-intervention-timing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-floquet-metasurface-achieves-isolation-without-magnets-under-passive-bias", "title": "A space-time modulated metasurface can reach practically useful directional isolation without magnetic bias when modulation phase velocity and sideband loading are jointly optimized under passivity constraints.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.56, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1210713", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.41, "note": "Wavefront-engineered metasurfaces provide baseline framework for programmable momentum bias." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-floquet-metasurface-achieves-isolation-without-magnets-under-passive-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-flow-state-hypofrontality-norepinephrine", "title": "The flow state (optimal experience) is neurally characterised by transient hypofrontality — reduced prefrontal cortex activity — combined with elevated norepinephrine and dopamine enabling automatic, effortless performance", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01633", "note": "Dietrich (2004) — transient hypofrontality hypothesis", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neubiorev.2013.03.003", "note": "de Manzano et al. (2013) — alpha/theta EEG during flow in pianists", "confidence": 0.67 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1037/0033-295X.97.3.363", "note": "Csikszentmihalyi (1990) — flow theory", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-flow-state-hypofrontality-norepinephrine.yaml" }, { "id": "h-flow-state-transient-hypofrontality", "title": "Flow states are neurologically characterized by transient hypofrontality — selective deactivation of prefrontal cortex regions associated with self-monitoring — measurable as reduced alpha/beta power in frontal EEG, with the duration and depth of flow state predicting the magnitude and duration of post-flow rebound creativity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.concog.2005.06.004", "note": "Dietrich (2004) — transient hypofrontality hypothesis of flow and altered states; proposes deactivation of explicit monitoring systems enables implicit skill execution.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0109894", "note": "de Manzano et al. (2010) — fMRI during piano performance correlates of flow; flow states associated with reduced activation in attention monitoring regions.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-flow-state-transient-hypofrontality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fmo-enaqt-efficiency", "title": "Environment-assisted quantum transport (ENAQT) enhances excitation transfer efficiency in the FMO complex by 5-15% relative to the purely classical Förster limit under physiological bath conditions at 310 K.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature05678", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Engel et al. (2007) observe coherence signatures consistent with quantum transport" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.103.146404", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Rebentrost et al. (2009) ENAQT theoretical prediction with model bath" }, { "doi": "10.1021/jp405421d", "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Scholes et al. (2017) argue oscillations are vibronic rather than electronic" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fmo-enaqt-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-food-web-motif-frequency-predicts-cascade-strength", "title": "The ratio of tri-trophic chain motifs to omnivory triangle motifs in a food web quantitatively predicts the magnitude of apex predator trophic cascade effects, with cascade biomass ratio scaling linearly with this motif ratio across ecosystem types\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-food-web-motif-frequency-predicts-cascade-strength.yaml" }, { "id": "h-forest-fire-soc-beta-exponent-climate-invariance", "title": "The forest fire area power-law exponent β is robust (1.3 ± 0.2) across climate zones and decadal drought cycles when fires are not suppressed, reflecting the universal SOC critical point; deviations beyond this range indicate departure from SOC caused by fire suppression or extreme fuel loading.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.281.5384.1840", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Malamud 1998 – US National Forest data β ≈ 1.3 across geographic regions; SOC interpretation" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0911553106", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Pueyo 2010 – global fire area distribution; SOC consistent across continents" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-forest-fire-soc-beta-exponent-climate-invariance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fourier-neural-operator-surrogates-accelerate-groundwater-inversion-with-calibrated-uncertainty", "title": "Fourier neural operator surrogates speed up groundwater inverse modeling while preserving calibrated uncertainty bounds for decision support.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "arxiv": "2010.08895", "note": "Fourier neural operator introduction.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fourier-neural-operator-surrogates-accelerate-groundwater-inversion-with-calibrated-uncertainty.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fourier-transform-x-signal-processing", "title": "Graph neural networks that incorporate spectral graph Fourier transforms will outperform spatial message-passing GNNs on tasks requiring long-range frequency-dependent features, due to the ability to apply frequency-selective filters to graph signals\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1090/S0025-5718-1965-0178586-1", "note": "Cooley & Tukey (1965) - An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Defferrard et al. (2016) - Convolutional neural networks on graphs with fast localized spectral filtering; NeurIPS; arXiv:1606.09375", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fourier-transform-x-signal-processing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fracture-depinning-crackling-noise-exponent", "title": "The acoustic emission size exponent τ in brittle fracture of isotropic polycrystalline materials is universally τ = 1.5 ± 0.1 (mean-field depinning universality class) in the limit of sample size L >> grain size d, with material-specific deviations arising only when L/d < 100.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.288.5469.1275", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Sethna 2001 – crackling noise review; mean-field τ = 1.5 for depinning" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.78.1408", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Zapperi 1997 – crack as depinning; τ = 3/2 in mean-field limit" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fracture-depinning-crackling-noise-exponent.yaml" }, { "id": "h-frailty-model-mortality-deceleration-test", "title": "A shared frailty survival model with gamma-distributed random effects fitted to the Swedish twin cohort will produce a frailty variance estimate sigma^2 ~ 0.3–0.6 and will accurately predict the late-life mortality deceleration (plateau above age 100) observed in the cohort without requiring a non-monotonic baseline hazard, demonstrating that demographic selection alone explains the mortality plateau", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/2061343", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Vaupel et al. (1979) — frailty model predicts late-life deceleration; foundational theoretical support" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kannisto (1994) — mortality plateau above age 100 in developed countries; empirical target", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "doi": "10.1093/biomet/73.1.13", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Clayton (1978) — shared frailty model for twin data" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-frailty-model-mortality-deceleration-test.yaml" }, { "id": "h-frb-gue-universality-magnetar", "title": "The inter-burst waiting time distributions of high-rate repeating FRB sources (>500 detected bursts) belong to the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE) universality class of random matrix theory, encoding the time-reversal symmetry breaking of magnetar crustal dynamics under strong magnetic fields, and distinguishing the quantum-chaotic emission mechanism from self-organized criticality alternatives.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2109.11535", "note": "Xu et al. (2022) - FRB 20201124A shows non-Poissonian waiting times with Weibull k ~ 0.6; sub-Poissonian at short times is consistent with RMT level repulsion (though not conclusive)\n", "confidence": 0.45 }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2107.02279", "note": "CHIME/FRB (2021) - power-law burst energy distributions and non-Poissonian clustering in repeaters; SOC-like statistics that overlap with RMT predictions at current sample sizes\n", "confidence": 0.4 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Self-organized criticality (SOC) models of magnetar crustal avalanches also produce sub-Poissonian short-time suppression and power-law tails, and are well-motivated physically. Distinguishing SOC from RMT requires the 3-point function (spectral rigidity), which requires >1000 bursts from a single source not yet available.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Detection threshold effects and telescope scheduling windows create artificial waiting-time suppression at short times, mimicking RMT level repulsion without any physical mechanism.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-frb-gue-universality-magnetar.yaml" }, { "id": "h-free-energy-aging", "title": "Biological aging is partly a failure of free energy minimisation: as cellular prediction models accumulate errors (protein misfolding, epigenetic drift, metabolic dysregulation), the metabolic cost of maintaining homeostasis exceeds available free energy, triggering senescence cascades.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nrn2787", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Friston (2010) — free energy principle: biological homeostasis = continuous free energy minimisation" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "López-Otín et al. (2013) Cell — hallmarks of aging include proteostasis loss, epigenetic alterations, metabolic dysregulation — all quantifiable as prediction model degradation" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Mitteldorf (2019) — aging as information loss in regulatory networks; compatible with free energy framework" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Schrödinger (1944) What is Life? — life maintains low entropy by consuming free energy; aging = declining capacity to do so" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-free-energy-aging.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ftle-ridge-persistence-predicts-left-atrial-appendage-stasis", "title": "Persistent FTLE ridges in left-atrial appendage flow predict clinically relevant stasis markers.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Fisher (1922) estimation and information." }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Stuart (2010) Bayesian inverse-problem foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ftle-ridge-persistence-predicts-left-atrial-appendage-stasis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ftle-ridge-threshold-correlates-larval-retention-proxy", "title": "Coastal retention proxies computed from backward-time FTLE ridges above calibrated thresholds correlate more strongly with settlement indices than Eulerian SST fronts alone when pelagic larval durations fall below mesoscale eddy turnover times — falsified if ridge metrics add negligible ΔR² in hierarchical models with identical covariates.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.29, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.3354/meps260083", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.46, "note": "Larval Lagrangian dispersion framing motivating circulation-based retention hypotheses." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ftle-ridge-threshold-correlates-larval-retention-proxy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-funnel-aware-search-reduces-docking-decoy-traps", "title": "Funnel-aware search heuristics reduce false-minimum decoy trapping in protein-ligand docking compared with score-only beam search.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.271.5248.487", "note": "Energy landscape perspective for protein folding.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-funnel-aware-search-reduces-docking-decoy-traps.yaml" }, { "id": "h-fusion-lawson-criterion-turbulent-transport-barrier", "title": "The remaining barrier to sustained net-energy-gain fusion in tokamaks is turbulent heat transport (gyrobohm diffusion) that degrades energy confinement below the H-mode pedestal — achieving commercial fusion requires either sustained high-pedestal H-mode with ELM suppression or a qualitatively different plasma regime with reduced transport.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-022-05172-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "NIF (Zinkle et al. 2022): inertial confinement fusion achieved ignition (3.15 MJ output from 2.05 MJ laser input) — confirms Q>1 is achievable; tokamak challenge is sustained confinement rather than peak compression.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1088/0029-5515/49/6/065029", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Kinsey et al. (2011) ITER predictions using TGLF transport model: Q=10 achievable if H-mode pedestal pressure maintained; ELMs (edge- localised modes) are primary threat to sustained high-pedestal operation.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1063/5.0013111", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Creely et al. (2020) SPARC design: high-field compact tokamak exploits B⁴ scaling of plasma pressure to reduce required plasma volume; approach sidesteps transport problem by operating at higher pressure/field ratio.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-fusion-lawson-criterion-turbulent-transport-barrier.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gaa-nanosheet-ballistic-transport-regime-room-temperature-3nm", "title": "Gate-all-around nanosheet silicon transistors at the 3nm node (Samsung/TSMC, 2022-2024) operate in the quasi-ballistic transport regime at room temperature (backscattering ratio r < 0.3), and their ON-current is within a factor of 2 of the Landauer ballistic limit — making further ON-current improvement require materials changes (SiGe, III-V), not gate geometry improvements.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Jeong et al. (2023) IEEE IEDM — Samsung 3GAE (3nm GAA) device characteristics: ON-current 1850 µA/µm at VDD=0.75V; theoretical Landauer limit for Si (100) orientation, 3 subbands: ~3500 µA/µm — actual device is ~53% of ballistic limit, consistent with backscattering r ≈ 0.47", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lundstrom & Jeong (2013) Nanoscale Transistors — MIT textbook: at 5nm gate length, mean free path in Si ≈ 5-10 nm (comparable to channel), so fraction of ballistic transmission T ≈ λ/(λ+L) ≈ 0.5-0.7 — consistent with quasi-ballistic operation", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Contact resistance (R_c ≈ 50-100 Ω·µm for Si in 3nm node) may limit ON-current more than channel scattering — distinguishing contact vs. channel contribution requires van der Pauw measurement on devices with varied contact spacing, which is not published for 3nm node", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "TSMC N3E characterization (2023 VLSI Symposium) — nMOS ION = 1350 µA/µm; SiGe pMOS ION = 1450 µA/µm; SiGe enhancement of hole mobility (2× over Si) increases ION closer to ballistic limit, consistent with materials engineering being the next scaling lever", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gaa-nanosheet-ballistic-transport-regime-room-temperature-3nm.yaml" }, { "id": "h-galactic-magnetic-alpha-omega-dynamo", "title": "Large-scale galactic magnetic fields are generated and maintained by the mean-field α-Ω dynamo mechanism where differential rotation (Ω effect) winds azimuthal field from poloidal and helical turbulence (α effect) regenerates poloidal from azimuthal field, with e-folding timescales ~1 Gyr", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1023/A:1026556011718", "note": "Beck et al. (1996) — Galactic magnetism: recent developments and perspectives; ARA&A 34:155", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/305420", "note": "Brandenburg & Subramanian (2005) — Astrophysical magnetic fields and MHD turbulence; Phys Rep 417:1", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Chamandy & Taylor (2015) — MHD simulation of galactic α-Ω dynamo reproducing spiral galaxy field morphology", "confidence": 0.69 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-galactic-magnetic-alpha-omega-dynamo.yaml" }, { "id": "h-galactic-magnetic-field-alpha-omega-dynamo", "title": "Large-scale galactic magnetic fields are generated and maintained by the mean-field alpha-Omega dynamo: differential rotation (Omega effect) stretches poloidal field into toroidal field, while helical turbulence from SN-driven convection (alpha effect) regenerates poloidal field, with saturation at energy equipartition with turbulent kinetic energy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s00159-015-0084-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Beck (2015) - radio polarimetry of spiral galaxy magnetic fields; review of dynamo evidence" }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-071221-052807", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Brandenburg & Ntormousi (2023) - galactic dynamos: theory review" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Pakmor et al. (2014) - IllustrisTNG shows magnetic field amplification via small-scale dynamo before large-scale ordering" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-galactic-magnetic-field-alpha-omega-dynamo.yaml" }, { "id": "h-galaxy-angular-momentum-tidal-torque-confirmed", "title": "Galaxy disk sizes are set by the angular momentum acquired via tidal torque theory during the linear growth phase, with spin parameter λ = J|E|^{1/2}/(GM^{5/2}) determining disk scale length after adiabatic contraction", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1046/j.1365-8711.1998.01251.x", "note": "Mo, Mao & White (1998) — Formation of disk galaxies; MNRAS 295:319", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/375492", "note": "van den Bosch et al. (2002) — Angular momentum of disk galaxies in ΛCDM", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stv2541", "note": "Posti et al. (2018) — Specific angular momentum vs mass in IllustrisTNG matches TTT predictions", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-galaxy-angular-momentum-tidal-torque-confirmed.yaml" }, { "id": "h-galaxy-angular-momentum-tidal-torque", "title": "Galaxy disk sizes are set primarily by the angular momentum acquired via tidal torque theory during linear growth, with secondary regulation by feedback-driven outflows that selectively eject low-angular-momentum gas, explaining the observed size-mass relation scatter as feedback efficiency variation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stw1537", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Fall & Romanowsky (2013) - specific angular momentum j~M^(2/3) for disks and bulges; angular momentum retention fraction" }, { "doi": "10.1046/j.1365-8711.2001.04831.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Mo, Mao & White (1998) - tidal torque theory: disk size from halo spin parameter λ" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Peebles (1969) - original tidal torque derivation for proto-galactic perturbations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-galaxy-angular-momentum-tidal-torque.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gale-shapley-deferred-acceptance-stability-uniqueness", "title": "In real-world matching markets with incomplete preference lists (NRMP, NYC school choice), the set of stable matchings is a lattice with a unique optimal matching for each side — but when strategic manipulation by hospitals (rank-order list truncation) is feasible, the manipulated equilibrium improves hospital welfare by on average 3-8% relative to the truthful DA outcome, undermining strategy- proofness for the receiving side.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/2312726", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.98, "note": "Gale & Shapley (1962) — DA algorithm; proven stable in O(n²); man-optimal stable matching is unique" }, { "doi": "10.1257/aer.89.4.748", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Roth & Peranson (1999) — NRMP redesign; DA strategy-proofness for residents confirmed in practice; hospitals can manipulate rank-order lists" }, { "note": "Roth (1982) Mathematics of Operations Research — hospitals are not strategy-proof under DA; proof of manipulation by rank truncation", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gale-shapley-deferred-acceptance-stability-uniqueness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-game-signaling-costly-honest-equilibrium", "title": "The separating (honest) signaling equilibrium is the evolutionarily stable outcome when signal cost functions satisfy the single-crossing property, and this equilibrium breaks down predictably when technological change reduces signal production costs asymmetrically across quality levels, leading to pooling equilibria and signaling inflation", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1086/285895", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Grafen (1990) - biological signals as handicaps: formal proof of separating ESS" }, { "doi": "10.2307/1882010", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Spence (1973) - job market signaling: separating equilibrium with education costs" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Zahavi & Zahavi (1997) - The Handicap Principle: biological costly signaling examples" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-game-signaling-costly-honest-equilibrium.yaml" }, { "id": "h-game-theory-x-antibiotic-resistance", "title": "Pulsed antibiotic dosing with concentration oscillating above and below the evolutionary game coexistence threshold produces slower resistance evolution than constant dosing at the same total dose, by exploiting producer-cheater cycling to suppress resistant mutant fixation probability.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/msb.2011.35", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Gore et al. (2009) - snowdrift game with coexistence; antibiotic creates public good dynamic" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bonhoeffer et al. (1997) - antibiotic resistance treatment strategies; PNAS 94:12106; cycling vs combination", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Meredith et al. (2015) - sequential dosing exploits evolutionary tradeoffs; eLife", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-game-theory-x-antibiotic-resistance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gamma-oscillations-binding-causal-test", "title": "Transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) at gamma frequency (40 Hz) applied out-of-phase between visual areas V1 and V4 disrupts feature binding in object recognition tasks, while in-phase gamma tACS enhances binding, providing causal evidence that inter-areal gamma synchrony mediates visual feature binding.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1126488", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Fries (2005) establishes the communication-through-coherence framework predicting that gamma synchrony gates inter-areal communication; supports the mechanism underlying the proposed tACS test.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2015.09.034", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Buzsaki & Wang (2015) show gamma oscillations arise from E-I balance and predict that phase relationships between cortical areas determine functional connectivity; out-of-phase stimulation should disrupt this.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gamma-oscillations-binding-causal-test.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gan-training-redqueen-dynamics", "title": "GAN training instability (mode collapse, oscillation) is predicted by the Red Queen dynamics of antagonistic coevolution", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/246015a0", "type": "supporting", "note": "Maynard Smith & Price (1973) — ESS and cyclical dynamics in zero-sum games" }, { "arxiv": "1406.2661", "type": "supporting", "note": "Goodfellow et al. (2014) — GAN as minimax two-player game" }, { "arxiv": "1801.04406", "type": "supporting", "note": "Mescheder et al. (2018) — which training methods stabilise GAN Nash equilibrium?" }, { "doi": "10.1007/BF01941371", "type": "supporting", "note": "Taylor & Jonker (1978) — replicator equation and cyclic attractors in zero-sum games" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gan-training-redqueen-dynamics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gapped-ferrite-bias-point-maximizes-wpt-q-under-saturation-margin", "title": "For MnZn pads used in Qi-class chargers, operating peak H-field ~60–70% of saturation minimizes hysteresis loss while preserving coupling — yielding higher loaded Q than either under-driven (weak coupling) or saturated (μ collapse) regimes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.43, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TPEL.2014.2336816", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.44, "note": "Design practice stresses flux guidance but leaves nonlinear loss optimum implicit." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Product geometries differ; hypothesis is **engineering-testable** but not universal." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gapped-ferrite-bias-point-maximizes-wpt-q-under-saturation-margin.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gate-control-pkc-gamma-interneuron", "title": "PKCgamma-positive excitatory interneurons in spinal lamina IIi serve as the primary gate control switch: they are normally suppressed by A-beta- activated glycinergic inhibition, and their disinhibition (loss of glycinergic interneuron input) is the key circuit mechanism of mechanical allodynia in neuropathic pain.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature01853", "note": "Miraucourt et al. (2007) - glycinergic inhibition of PKCgamma interneurons prevents mechanical allodynia", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nrn3086", "note": "Todd (2010) - dorsal horn circuitry review; PKCgamma interneuron role", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gate-control-pkc-gamma-interneuron.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gauge-fixing-parallels-coordinate-choice-in-models", "title": "Students taught SU(2) Yang–Mills using explicit parallel-transport exercises on the Bloch sphere bundle will score higher on Wilson-loop conceptual questions than cohorts taught only Euler–Lagrange forms.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.96.191", "note": "Foundational non-abelian gauge formulation" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1016/0370-1573(74)90023-6", "note": "Conceptual bridge between potentials, loops, and topology" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gauge-fixing-parallels-coordinate-choice-in-models.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gender-gap-stem-social-role-expectancy", "title": "Gender gaps in STEM participation are driven primarily by social role theory (Eagly) and ability self-concept divergence: girls with identical math test scores to boys report lower math self-efficacy due to stereotype threat internalization, with the gap larger in high-gender-egalitarian countries (the gender equality paradox) because broader occupational options reduce women's economic incentive for high-math fields", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1177/0956797617741719", "note": "Stoet & Geary (2018) — The gender equality paradox in science and mathematics education; Psych Sci", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037/0003-066X.55.1.109", "note": "Eccles (2000) — Expectancy-value theory of achievement choices; Am Psych 55:109", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1037/0003-066X.62.7.728", "note": "Nosek et al. (2009) — National differences in gender-science stereotypes predict national sex differences in science and math achievement; PNAS", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gender-gap-stem-social-role-expectancy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gender-gap-stem-social-role-theory", "title": "Persistent gender gaps in STEM participation are primarily driven by gender- science implicit associations and social role expectations (women as communal, science as agentic), not ability differences; gaps are reduced by social comparison (female role models in STEM), and country-level variation tracks gender equality indices (r~0.6), confirming social construction of STEM gender identity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1166362", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Nosek et al. (2009) - 34-country IAT study: gender-science IAT predicts gender gap in science achievement" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aab3029", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Flore & Wicherts (2015) - stereotype threat reduces women's math performance by 0.2 SD" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Stoet & Geary (2018) - gender equality paradox: higher equality countries have larger STEM gaps" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gender-gap-stem-social-role-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gene-expression-noise-x-information-theory", "title": "Developmental gene regulatory networks operating near channel capacity maximize positional information in morphogen gradients and produce sharper cell fate boundaries, measurable as reduced cell fate assignment error in single-cell atlases.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0604883103", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Tkacik et al. (2008) - mutual information near capacity in Drosophila gap gene network" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Dubuis et al. (2013) - positional information in Drosophila measured at ~4 bits, consistent with capacity limit", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Eldar & Elowitz (2010) - noise can be functional; distinguishes cases where noise is exploited vs tolerated", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gene-expression-noise-x-information-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gene-regulatory-network-x-boolean-circuit", "title": "The effective Boolean connectivity K of developmental GRNs estimated from single-cell RNA-seq binarised expression is 1.8–2.2 (near criticality) in normal development and increases to 2.5–3.0 in cancer cells, measurable via Kauffman network phase classification of perturbed expression states", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0022-5193(69)90015-0", "note": "Kauffman — NK Boolean network criticality at K = 2 provides maximum evolvability", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Daniels et al. (2018) — criticality distinguishes the ensemble of biological regulatory networks; PRL 121:138102", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gene-regulatory-network-x-boolean-circuit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-genetic-algorithm-x-natural-selection", "title": "Genetic algorithms searching protein sequence space will outperform gradient-based directed evolution methods when the fitness landscape has high epistasis (>50% of beneficial mutations are conditionally beneficial), due to crossover's ability to combine building blocks\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0004-3702(94)90132-5", "note": "Mitchell et al. (1994) - When will a genetic algorithm outperform hill climbing; AI survey", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Romero & Arnold (2009) - Exploring protein fitness landscapes by directed evolution; Nature Rev Mol Cell Biol 10:866; doi:10.1038/nrm2805", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-genetic-algorithm-x-natural-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-genetic-code-error-correcting-design", "title": "The standard genetic code's codon degeneracy pattern constitutes a natural block error-correcting code selected to minimise phenotypic change per single-base substitution error, and this error-minimisation property is measurable and unique among the space of possible codon table assignments\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s002390010011", "note": "Freeland & Hurst (1998) — the standard code outperforms ~10^6 random codes at minimising amino acid property change; 1 in 10^6 codes performs better" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Synonymous codons (same amino acid) are predominantly 3rd-position variants, consistent with an error-correcting design where the highest-error position (wobble base) has the least phenotypic impact." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "The frozen accident hypothesis (Crick 1968) argues that the code is historically contingent — one of many near-optimal codes that became fixed once tRNA/AARS co-evolution reached a threshold. This is not refuted by optimality; many near-optimal codes exist." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-genetic-code-error-correcting-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-genocide-early-warning-machine-learning-validity", "title": "Machine learning models trained on political, economic, and social indicators (Minorities at Risk, Political Terror Scale, ACLED data) can predict genocide onset 12–24 months in advance with positive predictive value > 30% at 95% sensitivity, providing actionable early warning given that the base rate of genocide onset is ~2–3 per year globally.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.86, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Harff (2003) Am Polit Sci Rev 97:57 — structural risk factors for genocide", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "note": "Goldsmith et al. (2013) Conflict Manag Peace Sci 30:157 — forecasting genocide", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Mueller & Rauh (2018) PNAS 115:11028 — text-based early warning conflict", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-genocide-early-warning-machine-learning-validity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-geographic-mosaic-coevolution-trait-variance", "title": "Thompson's geographic mosaic theory predicts higher among-population variance in coevolving traits (TTX level in newts, resistance in snakes) than in non-coevolving traits in the same species — a signature detectable by comparing population-level trait variance across hot-spot and cold-spot populations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.0014-3820.2002.tb01373.x", "note": "Brodie et al. (2002) documented geographic variation in TTX resistance in T. sirtalis populations correlated with local Taricha TTX levels — consistent with hot-spot/cold-spot mosaic prediction.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Zangerl & Berenbaum (2003) plant-insect coevolution: wild parsnip furanocoumarin levels and parsnip webworm resistance show correlated geographic variation across 20 populations — direct test of geographic mosaic.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Gene flow between populations may homogenize coevolving traits even when local selection differs, obscuring the predicted hot-spot/cold-spot pattern — the geographic mosaic signal requires sufficiently low migration relative to selection.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-geographic-mosaic-coevolution-trait-variance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-geomagnetic-reversal-climate-null", "title": "Geomagnetic excursions and reversals do not produce detectable climate signals because the cosmic ray flux increase during low-dipole periods (< 4000 nT) is too small (~10%) to significantly affect cloud nucleation above the level of solar cycle variability — the proposed GCR-climate link lacks the dynamic range to drive the observed correlations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Svensmark (2007) GCR-cloud hypothesis: GCR flux changes of 15% over solar cycle produce measurable cloud changes — low-field reversal produces similar magnitude", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Erlykin et al. (2013) cloud cover does not correlate with GCR at required timescale — CLOUD experiment (CERN) shows nucleation rate insufficient at tropospheric conditions", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Channell et al. (2009) Iceland Basin excursion (188 ka): no climate signal in ice core or marine sediment records at reversal timing", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-geomagnetic-reversal-climate-null.yaml" }, { "id": "h-geomagnetic-reversal-inner-core-crystallization", "title": "Geomagnetic reversals are triggered when inner core boundary lateral heterogeneities in heat flux create spatially asymmetric core convection that disrupts dipole dominance; reversal frequency is controlled by core-mantle boundary heat flux (itself controlled by mantle convection patterning) and lower mantle conductivity, making reversals unpredictable on geological timescales", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature02102", "note": "Glatzmaier & Roberts (1995) — A three-dimensional self-consistent computer simulation of a geomagnetic field reversal; Nature 377:203", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rsta.2014.0088", "note": "Constable et al. (2016) — Geomagnetic field variability; review of reversal mechanisms", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.epsl.2018.06.024", "note": "Pavón-Carrasco & De Santis (2016) — On the decreasing dipole moment and chaotic geomagnetic reversals", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-geomagnetic-reversal-inner-core-crystallization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-geometric-complexity-theory-p-np", "title": "Geometric complexity theory requires the existence of representation-theoretic multiplicity obstructions in the coordinate ring comparison of the orbit closures of the permanent and determinant polynomials; if Bürgisser et al.'s negative result on occurrence obstructions is confirmed, GCT must be reformulated using stronger cohomological invariants to retain its viability as a P≠NP strategy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.95, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1137/S0097539798347767", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Mulmuley & Sohoni (2001) SIAM J Comput 31:496 — GCT program original paper" }, { "doi": "10.1145/800157.805047", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Cook (1971) STOC — P vs NP problem original formulation" }, { "note": "Bürgisser et al. (2019) No occurrence obstructions in geometric complexity theory — negative result paper", "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-geometric-complexity-theory-p-np.yaml" }, { "id": "h-geometric-control-se3-optimal-robotic-grasping", "title": "Geometric controllers designed directly on SE(3) (the Lie group of rigid body motions) outperform quaternion-based controllers for robotic grasping of non-symmetric objects because they avoid representation singularities and converge globally, while Euclidean controllers fail in a set of measure zero that is irrelevant in theory but encountered in practice during large-angle maneuvers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TAC.2010.2049541", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Lee et al. (2010) IEEE TAC — geometric tracking controller on SE(3) for quadrotors; almost-global stability proof; quaternion-based controller has two equilibria (double cover) causing unwinding phenomenon; geometric controller avoids this\n" }, { "doi": "10.1109/ROBOT.2005.1570029", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.77, "note": "Bullo & Murray (1999) — Riemannian metric on SE(3) gives natural geodesic trajectory planning; computed optimal trajectories have 15% lower path length than Euclidean linear interpolation for > 90° orientation changes\n" }, { "doi": "10.1177/0278364910366457", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Park & Bobrow (2001) — Lie group methods for robotic manipulation; Pontryagin maximum principle on SE(3) yields optimal torque laws for manipulator path planning; convergence properties superior in simulation but not yet validated on hardware with compliance/noise\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-geometric-control-se3-optimal-robotic-grasping.yaml" }, { "id": "h-geostrophic-balance-climate-change", "title": "Progressive weakening of geostrophic balance in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation due to Arctic amplification will shift the Northern Hemisphere jet stream toward a more meridional (wavy) configuration, measurable as increased Rossby wave amplitude in ERA5 reanalysis data since 1980.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1029/2012GL051000", "note": "Francis & Vavrus (2012) Geophys Res Lett — evidence linking Arctic amplification to increased jet stream waviness and persistent weather patterns; original empirical claim for the mechanism.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nclimate3054", "note": "Mann et al. (2017) found specific quasi-resonant amplification of Rossby waves linked to anthropogenic forcing — supporting the hypothesis that climate change is already increasing extreme weather frequency via jet stream dynamics.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1252826", "note": "Screen & Simmonds (2013) find limited statistical evidence for increased jet stream waviness in observations. Barnes (2013) Science challenges the Francis & Vavrus analysis; the observational evidence for increased waviness remains contested among climate scientists.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-geostrophic-balance-climate-change.yaml" }, { "id": "h-geothermal-induced-seismicity-pore-pressure", "title": "Enhanced geothermal system (EGS) induced seismicity is controlled primarily by pore pressure diffusion front propagation and can be predicted and mitigated using traffic-light protocols calibrated to local fault critically — the Basel (2006) failure was preventable with real-time pore pressure monitoring.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Shapiro et al. (2006) seismicity cloud propagation follows pore pressure diffusion front r = √(4πDt) — D = hydraulic diffusivity determinable in real time", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Majer et al. (2007) protocol for addressing induced seismicity associated with EGS: traffic-light protocol reduces M>2 event rate by 70% in pilots", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Diehl et al. (2017) Pohang M5.5 (2017): events occurred 83 days after injection ceased — delayed triggering violates simple pore pressure diffusion model", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-geothermal-induced-seismicity-pore-pressure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gesture-speech-constitutive-integration", "title": "Gesture plays a constitutive role in language production by providing a spatial analog representation that constrains the lexical retrieval process for spatial and abstract concepts, such that preventing gesture production during speech specifically impairs the precision of spatial and metaphorical language without affecting non-spatial propositional content.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1006/brln.1998.1993", "note": "McNeill (1992) — gestures and speech form an integrated system; speech-gesture mismatches indicate cognitive conflict; gestures carry distinct representational content.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2004.09.016", "note": "Alibali et al. (2001) — gesture restriction increases speech disfluencies and lexical access times for spatial concepts; non-spatial content unaffected.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511730832", "note": "Goldin-Meadow (2003) — gesture supports thinking; blind speakers gesture in the absence of visual input, confirming cognitive not communicative function.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gesture-speech-constitutive-integration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gig-economy-welfare-net-negative", "title": "Gig platform expansion produces net welfare losses when worker welfare losses (income volatility, benefit loss, monopsony exploitation) exceed consumer surplus gains, with the balance tipping positive only in high-wage, low-regulation labor markets where misclassification is absent.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Koustas (2018) gig income variance 4x higher than comparable employee income, reducing lifetime utility via consumption smoothing failure", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hall & Krueger (2018) Uber drivers earn above local minimum wage on average but below traditional taxi drivers after costs", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Farber (2015) flexible hours create significant worker surplus; valuation of scheduling flexibility >$4/hour in survey experiments", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gig-economy-welfare-net-negative.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gini-mortality-phase-transition", "title": "The relationship between county-level income Gini coefficient and age-adjusted mortality exhibits a discontinuous inflection point near Gini=0.40, consistent with a saddle-node bifurcation in the health-inequality dynamical system", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1136/bmj.b1235", "type": "supporting", "note": "Wilkinson & Pickett (2009) — Spirit Level: near-threshold relationship between inequality and health outcomes across nations" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1126216", "type": "supporting", "note": "Marmot (2005) — status syndrome: social gradient in health operates across full income distribution" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.81.591", "type": "related", "note": "Castellano et al. (2009) — Ising models of social dynamics provide framework for inequality-health coupling" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.02.002", "type": "supporting", "note": "Pickett & Wilkinson (2015) — causal review of income inequality and health" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gini-mortality-phase-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-glacier-calving-fracture-toughness-prediction", "title": "The observed calving rates of tidewater glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica can be predicted to within a factor of 2 from the linear elastic fracture mechanics stress intensity factor K_I computed from ice thickness, terminus geometry, and estimated meltwater pond depth, without requiring empirical calving-law tuning", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0022143000022577", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Weertman (1973) — established LEFM framework for crevasse propagation; foundational support" }, { "doi": "10.1029/2006JF000664", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Bassis & Walker (2012) — calving stability linked to LEFM yield strength envelope for ice" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Todd & Christoffersen (2014) — calving model intercomparison showing empirical law scatter" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-glacier-calving-fracture-toughness-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-glial-tripartite-synapse-gain-modulation", "title": "Astrocytes perform genuine modulatory computation at tripartite synapses by integrating calcium signals from multiple synapses and releasing gliotransmitters (glutamate, D-serine, ATP) to modulate the gain of synaptic transmission in a spatiotemporal pattern determined by the astrocyte's calcium wave dynamics — this constitutes genuine information processing beyond passive background modulation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nn.3672", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Halassa & Haydon (2010) Annu Rev Physiol — astrocytes release D-serine as a co-agonist at NMDA receptors; blocking D-serine impairs LTP and spatial memory; astrocyte calcium signals precede and predict D-serine release timing\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2019.10.010", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Bhatt et al. — individual astrocytes tile distinct 100-300 μm territories without overlap; calcium signals are local, enabling domain-specific modulation rather than global broadcast, consistent with computational role\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03677-4", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Bhatt debate: Bhagwandin & Bhatt show GFAP-Gq-DREADD astrocyte activation nonspecifically affects circuits; argues for modulatory rather than instructive role; the computational vs. modulatory distinction remains the core open question\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-glial-tripartite-synapse-gain-modulation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-globular-cluster-formation-high-redshift-merger", "title": "Globular clusters form in high-redshift gas-rich mergers and high-pressure clumpy disk environments where feedback suppression allows super-star-cluster formation; multiple stellar populations arise from AGB and massive-star ejecta reaccretion in a self-enrichment scenario", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature14557", "note": "Kruijssen (2015) — Globular cluster formation conditions; Nature 423", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-081309-130834", "note": "Gratton et al. (2012) — Multiple populations in globular clusters; ARA&A 50:393", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/mnras/sty1459", "note": "Bastian & Lardo (2018) — multiple stellar populations review; ARA&A 56:83", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-globular-cluster-formation-high-redshift-merger.yaml" }, { "id": "h-globular-cluster-multiple-populations-enrichment", "title": "Multiple stellar populations in globular clusters arise from sequential star formation rounds within massive proto-cluster clouds: a first generation of stars ejects AGB winds that pool at the cluster center; a second generation forms from this enriched material, producing the Na-O anticorrelation observed in nearly all old GCs.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-081817-051839", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Bastian & Lardo (2018) Annual Review - multiple stellar populations in GCs; AGB enrichment scenario review" }, { "doi": "10.1051/0004-6361:20064995", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Decressin et al. (2007) - fast-rotating massive star (FRMS) model as alternative to AGB; both predict Na-O anticorrelation" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Mass budget problem: AGB scenario requires 10-20x more first-generation stars than observed today" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-globular-cluster-multiple-populations-enrichment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-glymphatic-amyloid-clearance-rate", "title": "Inter-individual variation in glymphatic clearance efficiency during sleep is a primary determinant of amyloid-beta accumulation trajectory, and its impairment precedes detectable amyloid load by years", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1241224", "note": "Xie et al. 2013 — sleep-driven glymphatic clearance of amyloid in mice (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2501.00001", "note": "arXiv:q-bio.QM — Latent dynamics of amyloid-beta progression (2026 harvest; metadata only)" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.jneurosci.org/content/37/17/4549", "note": "Human glymphatic flow assessment via diffusion MRI (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.25, "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-019-0531-x", "note": "Evidence that amyloid seeding dynamics may precede clearance impairment in some models (metadata link only)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-glymphatic-amyloid-clearance-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-glymphatic-dysfunction-drives-amyloid-accumulation", "title": "Glymphatic system dysfunction — reduced perivascular CSF flow from arterial stiffening and AQP4 depolarization — is an upstream causal event in Alzheimer's disease that precedes symptomatic amyloid accumulation and represents a treatable target for disease prevention.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ju et al. (2017) JAMA Neurol: obstructive sleep apnea (which impairs slow-wave sleep and glymphatic flow) is associated with elevated CSF amyloid-β42 and accelerated cognitive decline — consistent with glymphatic-amyloid linkage.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Boespflug & Bhatt (2020) Curr Neurol Neurosci Rep: CSF tracer MRI studies show reduced glymphatic transport in older adults and AD patients compared to young controls; transport correlates inversely with amyloid PET burden.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Reeves et al. (2020): AQP4-knockout mice show reduced glymphatic flow but do not develop spontaneous amyloid plaques without human APP expression — suggesting glymphatic dysfunction is permissive but not sufficient for AD.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lecanemab (anti-amyloid antibody, FDA approved 2023) reduces amyloid burden and slows decline — demonstrates amyloid causality but does not address whether glymphatic restoration would be additive.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-glymphatic-dysfunction-drives-amyloid-accumulation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-glymphatic-sleep-aquaporin4-clearance", "title": "Glymphatic waste clearance from the brain is driven by arterial pulsatility during slow-wave sleep through AQP4-mediated convective flow along perivascular spaces, and age-related AQP4 depolarisation is a primary mechanism of amyloid accumulation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1241224", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.83, "note": "Xie et al. (2013) Science — two-photon in vivo imaging shows beta-amyloid clearance increases 2-fold during sleep vs. wakefulness; AQP4-null mice show 65% reduction in interstitial solute clearance\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1417699112", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Iliff et al. (2014) — arterial pulsatility drives CSF influx through perivascular spaces; cardiac pulsation frequency, not breathing, is the primary driver\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41593-020-00789-4", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Mestre et al. (2020) — aged mice show AQP4 depolarisation (redistribution from endfeet) and reduced glymphatic flux, correlating with amyloid burden increase\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-glymphatic-sleep-aquaporin4-clearance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gompertz-weibull-aging-unification", "title": "Human aging follows Weibull extreme value statistics for the same reason as engineering component fatigue: both are governed by the weakest-link statistics of competing failure modes, and the Gompertz mortality law is the biological instantiation of the Gumbel extreme value distribution.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rspb.1825.0039", "note": "Gompertz (1825) - exponential hazard rate increase with age is the Gumbel extreme value distribution of first-failure time" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Weibull modulus β fits human mortality data at ages 30–80 in modern populations (β ≈ 8–12), consistent with the wear-out regime in engineering systems. The same statistical physics governs metal fatigue and biological aging.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Mortality deceleration at extreme ages (>95) violates the Gompertz prediction, suggesting that survivors are a selected population with different failure distributions, or that the competing-risks model breaks down at extreme ages.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gompertz-weibull-aging-unification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gr-gauge-theory-fiber-bundle-unification", "title": "General relativity and Yang-Mills gauge theories are unified descriptions of curvature on different fiber bundles — quantum gravity requires quantizing the base manifold", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Atiyah, Bott & Patodi (1973) - Yang-Mills fields as connections on principal fiber bundles; identical mathematical structure to general relativity" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Witten (1988) - topological quantum field theory connects 4-manifold invariants to Yang-Mills; hints at quantum gravity link" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gr-gauge-theory-fiber-bundle-unification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gradient-penalty-magnitude-tracks-dual-feasibility-proxy-metrics", "title": "On CIFAR-style benchmarks with matched architectures, the median L2 norm of critic gradients along convex combinations of real–fake batches will correlate negatively with inception-score collapse events when λ_GP is swept — falsified if training collapses while gradient norms remain uniformly small (indicating other failure modes dominate).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.44, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1704.00028", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Original empirical motivation linking penalties to training stability" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gradient-penalty-magnitude-tracks-dual-feasibility-proxy-metrics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-graph-convolution-with-mobility-priors-improves-outbreak-link-recovery", "title": "Graph convolution models augmented with mobility priors improve outbreak transmission-link recovery and uncertainty calibration.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1609.02907", "note": "GCN message passing for relational inference.", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-graph-convolution-with-mobility-priors-improves-outbreak-link-recovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-graph-cut-energy-residuals-detect-lesion-segmentation-failure-modes-earlier", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-graph-cut-energy-minimization-x-radiology-lesion-segmentation-qc` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Clinical signal-inference setting motivating robust model-based QC metrics.", "doi": "10.1038/nn.2733" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-graph-cut-energy-residuals-detect-lesion-segmentation-failure-modes-earlier.yaml" }, { "id": "h-graph-laplacian-regularization-improves-module-replicability", "title": "Graph Laplacian denoising or shrinkage priors applied before spectral clustering increase cross-site module agreement metrics versus raw correlation graphs under simulated batch injections.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.59, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "0711.0189", "note": "Baseline spectral clustering assumptions used to motivate stability diagnostics.", "confidence": 0.53 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-graph-laplacian-regularization-improves-module-replicability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-graph-neural-network-x-spectral-graph-theory", "title": "GNNs using learned spectral filters over the full graph Laplacian spectrum will outperform spatial message-passing GNNs on molecular property prediction tasks requiring long-range electronic effects (HOMO-LUMO gap, ionization potential)\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1609.02907", "note": "Kipf & Welling (2017) - Semi-supervised classification with GCN; arXiv:1609.02907", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kreuzer et al. (2021) - Rethinking graph transformers with spectral attention; NeurIPS 2021; arXiv:2106.03893", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-graph-neural-network-x-spectral-graph-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-graph-theory-x-molecular-structure", "title": "The Weisfeiler-Leman graph isomorphism test (1-WL) is equivalent to the expressive power of message-passing graph neural networks for molecular property prediction, making topological index computation a special case of 1-WL iteration that saturates at r² > 0.99 for homologous series but fails for branched polycyclics", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1021/ja01193a005", "note": "Wiener index — r² > 0.99 for alkane boiling points; first molecular graph-theory bridge", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Xu et al. (2019) — how powerful are graph neural networks; ICLR 2019 — 1-WL equivalence", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-graph-theory-x-molecular-structure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-graph-transformer-improves-grid-contingency-screening-recall", "title": "Graph-transformer contingency models improve high-risk event recall at fixed alarm budget.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2012.09699", "note": "Graph Transformer architecture.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-graph-transformer-improves-grid-contingency-screening-recall.yaml" }, { "id": "h-graph-wavelet-energy-localizes-pmu-grid-disturbances-better-than-scada", "title": "Graph-wavelet PMU features localize transmission-grid disturbances more accurately and faster than SCADA-only alarm logic.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TSP.2013.2279681", "note": "Graph signal processing foundations.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-graph-wavelet-energy-localizes-pmu-grid-disturbances-better-than-scada.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gravitational-lensing-caustic-classification-test", "title": "The spatial distribution and angular length statistics of giant arcs in Hubble Space Telescope cluster surveys will be consistent with fold and cusp catastrophe theory predictions (arcs preferentially at fold caustics, point images at cusps) with magnification distribution following the |mu|^{-3} power law expected from fold-catastrophe optics to within 10%", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/978-3-540-97648-9", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Schneider et al. (1992) — caustic arc statistics predictions from catastrophe theory" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kneib & Natarajan (2011) — cluster lenses: magnification bias and arc statistics review" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Zitrin et al. (2011) — Hubble Frontier Fields arc statistics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gravitational-lensing-caustic-classification-test.yaml" }, { "id": "h-grb-cambrian-explosion-trigger", "title": "The Late Ordovician mass extinction (443 Mya) was initiated by a long-duration gamma-ray burst within 2 kpc that destroyed more than 50% of Earth's ozone column, producing an ultraviolet-driven kill pattern preferentially eliminating shallow-marine and surface taxa while sparing deep-water organisms — a signature distinguishable from climate-driven and bolide-impact extinction patterns.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1086/426926", "note": "Melott et al. (2004) - quantitative GRB ozone depletion model; 10-second GRB at 2 kpc removes ~47% of ozone column; UV flux increase is lethal to phytoplankton\n", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/S1473550408004412", "note": "Melott & Thomas (2009) - Ordovician extinction selectivity (depth-stratified survival) matches UV kill hypothesis; climate cooling is insufficient to explain the selectivity pattern\n", "confidence": 0.5 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The Ordovician extinction is strongly correlated with rapid glaciation (Hirnantian glaciation) and sea-level fall. Glaciation alone can explain preferential loss of shallow warm-water taxa without invoking a GRB. The GRB hypothesis is difficult to distinguish from glaciation at fossil record resolution.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The Milky Way's long GRB rate is estimated at ~0.1 per Myr within 2 kpc, making the probability of a GRB coinciding with the Ordovician within dating uncertainty (~1 Myr) only ~10%. The a priori probability is low, requiring additional corroborating evidence (e.g., cosmogenic isotope spike at the extinction boundary).\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-grb-cambrian-explosion-trigger.yaml" }, { "id": "h-green-hydrogen-iridium-scarcity-pem-electrolysis", "title": "The fundamental efficiency ceiling for PEM water electrolysis is 83% (LHV basis, 1.48V thermodynamic minimum) but iridium catalyst scarcity (global production ~7 tonnes/yr) limits deployment to <10 GW/yr unless iridium loading is reduced below 0.05 mg/cm² or earth-abundant catalysts achieve equivalent oxygen evolution activity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1039/C8EE03251A", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Carmo et al. (2013) PEM electrolysis review: best-in-class cells achieve 82% efficiency at 1 A/cm²; degradation accelerated by IrOx dissolution at high current density — Ir loading reduction below 0.1 mg/cm² reduces lifetime from >50,000 h to <10,000 h.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41467-021-25958-1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Jaramillo et al. (2021) Ir scarcity analysis: achieving 1 TW of PEM electrolysis requires >100× current annual Ir production — confirms material bottleneck unless loading is reduced 100-fold.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.abb0259", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Nong et al. (2020) IrNiOₓ catalyst: achieves comparable OER activity to IrO₂ at 40% lower Ir loading — but long-term stability under acidic conditions not yet demonstrated at >10,000 h.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-green-hydrogen-iridium-scarcity-pem-electrolysis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-green-infrastructure-urban-cooling-nonlinear-threshold", "title": "Urban tree canopy cover exhibits a nonlinear threshold effect on heat island intensity: cooling effect is negligible below ~15% canopy cover, then increases rapidly between 15-30% (cooperative evapotranspiration), then plateaus above 40%, consistent with a percolation-like transition in connected canopy enabling coherent evapotranspiration across the urban landscape.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01202.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "McDonnell & Hahs (2008) — urbanisation gradient studies; impervious cover vs. biodiversity" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1150195", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Grimm et al. (2008) — urban ecology including UHI effects" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-green-infrastructure-urban-cooling-nonlinear-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-grid-cell-torus-manifold-decoding", "title": "The population activity of grid cells in a single module traces a toroidal manifold in neural state space whose intrinsic geometry (torus radius ratio corresponding to the grid aspect ratio) can be decoded from calcium imaging data using topological data analysis (persistent homology), and this torus structure is maintained across environments of different shapes with a predictable phase remapping", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature11692", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Yoon et al. (2013) — continuous attractor dynamics in grid cells; toroidal structure hypothesis" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gardner et al. (2022) — toroidal topology of population activity in grid cells (TDA confirmation)", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "doi": "10.7554/eLife.08701", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Doeller et al. (2016) — hexadirectional modulation; human grid-like responses" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-grid-cell-torus-manifold-decoding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-grid-inspired-phase-coherence-metrics-predict-beta-cell-dysfunction-earlier", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-kuramoto-synchrony-x-beta-cell-islet-oscillations` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Beta-cell oscillatory coordination.", "doi": "10.1152/ajpendo.1998.275.6.E1119" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-grid-inspired-phase-coherence-metrics-predict-beta-cell-dysfunction-earlier.yaml" }, { "id": "h-griffith-crack-2d-material-defects", "title": "Carrier mobility in 2D materials is limited by grain boundary crack-like defects governed by a modified Griffith criterion where the effective fracture toughness scales with the interlayer van der Waals adhesion energy, such that grain boundaries with misorientation angles above a critical threshold act as sharp cracks for electron scattering in the same way they act as crack initiation sites for mechanical failure.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nmat3244", "note": "Grantab et al. (2010) — grain boundary strength in graphene follows Griffith scaling; tilt angle determines fracture energy; low-angle GBs are stronger.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1021/nl403751p", "note": "Huang et al. (2011) — TEM imaging of graphene grain boundaries; dislocation density and misorientation determine boundary structure and electronic potential.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/ncomms11241", "note": "Tsen et al. (2012) — graphene grain boundary resistance increases with misorientation angle; long-range Coulomb scattering dominates at high tilt.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-griffith-crack-2d-material-defects.yaml" }, { "id": "h-grn-gnn-priors-improve-perturbation-response-prediction", "title": "GNN priors over regulatory structure improve out-of-sample perturbation response prediction.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2005.03675", "note": "Graph neural network survey context.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-grn-gnn-priors-improve-perturbation-response-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-grokking-criticality-universality", "title": "Grokking is a second-order phase transition in the Ising universality class, detectable via finite-size scaling of hidden-layer intrinsic dimension", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2201.02177", "note": "Power et al. (2022) document sudden generalisation with a sharp front in test accuracy — consistent with a sharp continuous transition" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Dimensional Criticality at Grokking (arXiv 2026 nlin:AO harvest 2026-05-04) measures intrinsic dimension halving at the grokking point — consistent with a symmetry-breaking order parameter" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1412.0233", "note": "Choromanska et al. (2015) connect DNN loss landscape to SK spin-glass free energy" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-grokking-criticality-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gromov-nonsqueezing-quantum-uncertainty-derivation", "title": "The Heisenberg uncertainty principle Delta_q * Delta_p >= hbar/2 can be derived directly from Gromov's non-squeezing theorem in the semiclassical limit hbar → 0 by identifying the symplectic capacity of the uncertainty ellipsoid with hbar, providing a geometric rather than operator-algebraic proof of the uncertainty principle.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/BF01388806", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Gromov (1985) — non-squeezing theorem; symplectic capacity c(B^{2n}(r)) = pi*r^2" }, { "note": "de Gosson (2009) The Symplectic Camel and the Uncertainty Principle — partial derivation connecting Gromov capacity to uncertainty principle", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gromov-nonsqueezing-quantum-uncertainty-derivation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gromov-witten-quantum-cohomology-counts", "title": "Pseudo-holomorphic curve counts in symplectic topology are well-defined as rational numbers via virtual fundamental class techniques (Kuranishi structures or polyfolds) — the earlier regularity obstruction is overcome by virtual perturbation theory, making Gromov-Witten invariants of all compact symplectic manifolds rigorously defined.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Fukaya & Ono (1999) Kuranishi structure approach: virtual fundamental class for genus-0 GW invariants — first rigorous definition in general", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hofer et al. (2017) polyfold theory: functional analytic framework replacing Kuranishi — rigorous regularization of J-holomorphic curve moduli spaces", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Pardon (2016) virtual fundamental cycles in symplectic topology: algebraic approach agrees with analytic methods in tested cases", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gromov-witten-quantum-cohomology-counts.yaml" }, { "id": "h-group-creativity-cognitive-diversity-optimal", "title": "Group creativity follows an inverted-U function of cognitive diversity: below a threshold, convergent thinking dominates and production blocking suppresses original ideas; above a threshold, coordination costs and communication breakdown negate diversity gains; optimal team creativity requires moderate diversity with strong psychological safety.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Page (2007) The Difference - cognitive diversity predicts collective problem solving", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Paulus & Nijstad (2003) Group Creativity - production blocking in brainstorming", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-group-creativity-cognitive-diversity-optimal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-group-creativity-cognitive-diversity", "title": "Group creative output exceeds individual output when cognitive diversity is high and psychological safety is present, but falls below individual output when groups converge on a dominant idea (groupthink) or enforce conformity norms.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/0003-066X.61.1.25", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Paulus & Nijstad (2003) - production blocking in brainstorming reduces group ideation below nominal group performance" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Page (2007) The Difference - cognitive diversity predicts group problem-solving performance beyond IQ" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Uzzi et al. (2013) Atypical Combinations in Science - teams combining distant knowledge domains produce breakthrough papers" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-group-creativity-cognitive-diversity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-growth-rate-hypothesis-ribosome-phosphorus-universality", "title": "The growth rate hypothesis — that fast-growing organisms have higher P:N and P:C ratios because they require more ribosomal RNA to sustain high protein synthesis rates — holds universally across all domains of life (bacteria, archaea, protists, plants, animals) and predicts elemental stoichiometry from ribosome allocation fraction alone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/3545680", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Elser et al. (1996) Oikos — original growth rate hypothesis: inter-specific variation in P:C ratios correlates with rRNA content and growth rate across zooplankton" }, { "doi": "10.1098/rspb.2003.2361", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Gillooly et al. (2005) Proc R Soc B — metabolic theory of ecology extension: growth rate scales with body mass and temperature; ribosome cost explains P scaling" }, { "doi": "10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02182.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Sterner & Elser (2002 review) Freshwater Biology — empirical tests across phytoplankton, zooplankton, bacteria, and fish: P:C correlates with growth rate in 80% of comparisons" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Matzek & Vitousek (2009) Global Change Biol — in plants, P:N ratios do not correlate with growth rate across 90 species — plants may use P differently than unicellular organisms; challenges universality claim" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-growth-rate-hypothesis-ribosome-phosphorus-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gtr-model-adequate-metazoan-divergence-estimation", "title": "GTR+Gamma+I substitution models are inadequate for estimating deep Metazoan divergence times because they cannot account for compositional heterogeneity and long-branch saturation, causing systematic 10-30% underestimation of Cambrian and pre-Cambrian divergence dates compared to CAT+GTR non-homogeneous models.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/BF01734359", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Felsenstein (1981) — likelihood pruning; GTR model formulation" }, { "doi": "10.1186/1471-2148-7-214", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Drummond & Rambaut (2007) BEAST — relaxed molecular clock; GTR-based estimates" }, { "doi": "10.1093/sysbio/syu061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Lartillot et al. (2013) — CAT model reduces LBA in deep animal phylogeny" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gtr-model-adequate-metazoan-divergence-estimation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gut-microbiome-serotonin-depression", "title": "Specific short-chain fatty acid producing gut bacteria modulate tryptophan availability to the brain and causally influence depression susceptibility via the gut-brain axis", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.35, "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0675-0", "note": "Gut microbiome composition differences in depression cohorts (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Germ-free mouse behavioural deficits rescued by butyrate supplementation" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Human probiotic RCTs for depression show inconsistent effects" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gut-microbiome-serotonin-depression.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gut-microbiome-x-lotka-volterra", "title": "The healthy human gut microbiome occupies a large-basin attractor in generalized Lotka-Volterra state space characterized by negative diagonal dominance of the interaction matrix (A_ii < -|Σ_j≠i A_ij|), and antibiotic-induced dysbiosis corresponds to a saddle-node bifurcation at a critical antibiotic dose that destroys this attractor", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003388", "note": "Stein et al. (2013) — gLV model inference from microbiome time series", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Buffie & Pamer (2013) — Microbiota-mediated colonization resistance against intestinal pathogens; Nature Reviews Immunology 13:790", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gut-microbiome-x-lotka-volterra.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gutenberg-richter-percolation-threshold", "title": "The universal Gutenberg-Richter b-value of 1 is a direct consequence of earthquake fault networks self-organizing to the percolation critical point, and b-value deviations should predict large-earthquake occurrence probability via percolation cluster statistics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1029/95JB01091", "note": "Sornette & Sammis (1995) - critical exponents from RG theory of earthquakes; b=1 from percolation exponent" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1029/92JB01381", "note": "Main (1992) - damage mechanics model; power-law statistics derived from percolation framework" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Some volcanic and induced seismicity sequences show b-values of 1.5–2.5 without obvious departure from percolation criticality; the model must explain non-unity b-values without ad hoc modifications.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gutenberg-richter-percolation-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gutenberg-richter-soc-btw-exponent", "title": "The Gutenberg-Richter energy exponent τ ≈ 1.67 belongs to the interface depinning universality class rather than the BTW sandpile class (τ = 3/2), reflecting that fault rupture is driven by a threshold-crossing front on a heterogeneous stress field rather than a conservative redistribution rule.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.59.381", "type": "related", "note": "Bak, Tang & Wiesenfeld (1987) — BTW sandpile predicts τ = 3/2 (mean field)" }, { "doi": "10.1029/JB094iB11p15635", "type": "supporting", "note": "Bak & Tang (1989) — proposed earthquake-SOC connection" }, { "doi": "10.1007/BF01300524", "type": "related", "note": "Sornette & Sammis (1995) — critical point model for fault rupture" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gutenberg-richter-soc-btw-exponent.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gwb-spectrum-supermassive-bh-binaries", "title": "The nanohertz gravitational wave background detected by pulsar timing arrays is dominated by a stochastic superposition of gravitational waves from supermassive black hole binary inspirals, with a characteristic strain spectrum h_c(f) ∝ f^{-2/3} confirming the circular inspiral origin, and the amplitude encoding the SMBHB merger rate × mass function.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2306.16213", "note": "NANOGrav (2023) — 15-year data set; Bayes evidence for GWB over uncorrelated noise; Hellings-Downs correlation consistent with GW origin; amplitude A = 2.4e-15 at f=1/yr consistent with SMBHB model.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1051/0004-6361/202346844", "note": "EPTA (2023) — independent confirmation of GWB with consistent amplitude; spectral slope consistent with f^{-2/3} but upper range consistent with contributions from new physics sources.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gwb-spectrum-supermassive-bh-binaries.yaml" }, { "id": "h-gwb-supermassive-bh-binary-origin", "title": "The nanohertz gravitational wave background detected by pulsar timing arrays (NANOGrav 2023) originates from a cosmological population of inspiralling supermassive black hole binaries at sub-parsec separations", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.93, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3847/2041-8213/acdac6", "note": "NANOGrav Collaboration (2023) — 15-year dataset evidence for GWB", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3847/2041-8213/acda9a", "note": "NANOGrav (2023) — astrophysical interpretation: SMBHB consistent", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stz2803", "note": "Sesana (2013) — SMBHB population and GWB spectrum predictions", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-gwb-supermassive-bh-binary-origin.yaml" }, { "id": "h-habitat-percolation-critical-density", "title": "The empirical ~60% habitat threshold for forest-interior species collapse is the 2D site percolation threshold (p_c=0.593), and deviations across landscapes of different area follow the FSS scaling p_c(A) = 0.593 + c*A^(-3/4).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF02275266", "note": "Gardner et al. (1987) first showed percolation threshold emerges in simulated landscapes near 59% — matches 2D site percolation p_c=0.593" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF02275369", "note": "With & Crist (1995) showed animal movement collapses near percolation threshold in fragmented landscapes" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Multiple empirical studies report species collapse near 60% habitat cover: Andrén (1994) meta-analysis shows threshold effects in bird and mammal abundance between 10-30% remaining habitat (below p_c, post-threshold regime). The 60% threshold corresponds to onset of non-linear decline, consistent with percolation.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The empirical ~60% figure may reflect species-area effects and edge effects rather than percolation connectivity. Many species respond to habitat amount rather than connectivity per se — in which case the percolation framework applies only to obligate corridor-users, not to all forest species. Distinguishing connectivity-driven from area-driven thresholds requires tracking individual dispersal movements, not just presence-absence data.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-habitat-percolation-critical-density.yaml" }, { "id": "h-habitat-percolation-species-persistence", "title": "Species requiring landscape-spanning dispersal will show population viability thresholds at the percolation critical point (h_c ~ 0.59 habitat fraction), with patch occupancy following the giant component size scaling S ~ (h - h_c)^beta (beta = 0.14 for 2D percolation) near the threshold", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1002/sim.1186", "note": "Higgins et al. (2002) — heterogeneity quantification provides statistical framework for testing threshold effects in meta-analytic ecological data", "confidence": 0.5 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "With & Crist (1995) — critical percolation thresholds in landscape connectivity (Ecology 76:2446)", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hanski (1998) metapopulation dynamics — incidence function model produces patch occupancy patterns consistent with percolation predictions (Nature 396:41)", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-habitat-percolation-species-persistence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-habitat-percolation-z-exponent", "title": "The species-area exponent z emerges from the fractal dimension of habitat connectivity at the percolation threshold and should be predictable from landscape metrics", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "doi": "10.2307/1938559", "note": "With & Crist (1995) - percolation thresholds in fragmented landscapes match extinction thresholds" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Hanski (1999) metapopulation theory - incidence function model relates patch area to occupancy probability" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-habitat-percolation-z-exponent.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hair-cell-bundle-x-hopf-bifurcation", "title": "Sensorineural hearing loss shifts individual hair cell bundles away from the Hopf bifurcation point toward the stable fixed point regime, reducing amplification gain and auditory sensitivity quantitatively predictable from the bifurcation distance parameter\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.97.7.3183", "note": "Camalet et al. (2000) - Auditory sensitivity provided by self-tuned critical oscillations of hair cells", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hudspeth (2008) - Making an effort to listen: mechanical amplification in the ear; Neuron 59:530; doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2008.07.012", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hair-cell-bundle-x-hopf-bifurcation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hair-cell-regeneration-notch-atoh1", "title": "Mammalian cochlear hair cell regeneration is suppressed by sustained Notch lateral inhibition from surviving supporting cells; pharmacological Notch blockade combined with Atoh1 transcription factor delivery is sufficient to trigger de novo hair cell production from supporting cell transdifferentiation in mature mammals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature09568", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Mizutari et al. (2013) Neuron — gamma-secretase inhibition (Notch blockade) in adult mice regenerates hair cells after noise damage, partial functional recovery\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2012.05.019", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Bermingham et al. — Atoh1/Math1 overexpression in supporting cells produces ectopic hair cell-like cells with mechanosensory bundle morphology in neonatal cochlea\n" }, { "doi": "10.1101/cshperspect.a033613", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Coffin & Bhave (2020) — non-mammalian vertebrates (zebrafish, chicken) constitutively regenerate hair cells via supporting cell proliferation; Notch pathway is less active, providing the mechanistic hypothesis for why mammals fail\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hair-cell-regeneration-notch-atoh1.yaml" }, { "id": "h-half-wavelength-coil-spacing-bound-suppresses-near-field-grating-analogs", "title": "When driven at wireless charging frequencies with phased currents, planar coil mats exhibit peak stray-field sidelobe growth once lateral spacing exceeds ~0.35–0.45× the effective magnetic wavelength in the coupled medium — motivating spacing caps even when classical half-wave far-field grating criteria do not literally apply.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.4, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TPEL.2013.2279268", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.39, "note": "Multi-coil contexts motivate interference thinking." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.31, "note": "Effective wavelength in ferrite-backed substrates differs from air — numerical prefactor **speculative**." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-half-wavelength-coil-spacing-bound-suppresses-near-field-grating-analogs.yaml" }, { "id": "h-happiness-set-point-heritability-deliberate-activity", "title": "Subjective wellbeing set point is heritable (~50%) and determined by a dynamic equilibrium of affective adaptation, not a fixed genetic constant; deliberate activities (gratitude, social engagement, purposeful goals) can sustainably shift the set point upward by 0.3-0.5 SD when maintained consistently, while life circumstances produce only temporary shifts.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/0033-295X.106.3.395", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lyubomirsky et al. (1999) set point model: ~50% variance in SWB heritable (twin studies), ~10% due to circumstances, ~40% due to intentional activities — basis for the deliberate activity hypothesis.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1037/0022-3514.84.2.365", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Diener et al. (2006) life events and adaptation: lottery winners and accident victims return to near-baseline SWB within 1-2 years; set point adaptation confirmed but SWB shows some upward drift with sustained positive change.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1037/a0019648", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Lykken & Tellegen (1996) twin study: wellbeing is largely heritable but siblings raised apart show more SWB variability than identical twins, indicating environmental influences act within genetic range.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-happiness-set-point-heritability-deliberate-activity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hasselmann-red-noise-ocean-temperature-spectrum", "title": "North Atlantic SST power spectra at frequencies below 1/(2 years) are statistically indistinguishable from the Hasselmann red noise prediction S(ω) = σ²/(λ²+ω²) with a damping timescale τ = 1/λ ≈ 8–12 months — confirming that decadal Atlantic variability requires no coupled ocean-atmosphere resonance beyond integrated atmospheric white noise.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Hasselmann (1976) Tellus 28:473 — original prediction of Lorentzian spectrum for ocean temperature; τ ≈ 1 year estimated from mixed layer depth and heat flux", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "note": "Frankignoul & Hasselmann (1977) Tellus 29:289 — first validation against observed North Atlantic SST spectrum; red noise null hypothesis established", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Deser & Blackmon (1993) J Climate — North Atlantic decadal variability shows some power above red noise at 10-13 year period; contested whether this is AMOC-coupled mode or red noise peak" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hasselmann-red-noise-ocean-temperature-spectrum.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hawkes-branching-threshold-predicts-seizure-clusters", "title": "A patient-specific Hawkes branching ratio crossing 0.85 predicts elevated 24-hour seizure-cluster risk.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1088/1742-5468/2011/12/P12028", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Bacry et al. Hawkes-process estimation and applications." }, { "doi": "10.1007/s00780-015-0282-y", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Hardiman et al. critical reflexivity / branching-ratio analysis." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hawkes-branching-threshold-predicts-seizure-clusters.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hawkes-process-liquidity-flash-crash", "title": "The Hawkes branching ratio eta estimated from the last 10 minutes of limit order book data will be a statistically significant leading indicator (AUC > 0.75 for ROC curve) of flash crash events defined as > 2% price decline within 60 seconds, based on backtesting against S&P 500 E-mini futures order book data from 2010–2023", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s00780-015-0282-y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Hardiman et al. (2013) — eta close to 1 in S&P futures; qualitative association with flash crash" }, { "doi": "10.1142/S2010326314500094", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Filimonov & Sornette (2012) — Hawkes branching ratio as reflexivity measure; near-critical behavior before flash crashes" }, { "type": "related", "note": "CFTC-SEC report (2010) — May 6 flash crash analysis; order book dynamics and liquidity withdrawal" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hawkes-process-liquidity-flash-crash.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hawking-radiation-analog-bec-entanglement", "title": "BEC sonic black hole analogs will exhibit entanglement between Hawking and partner phonon modes precisely described by a two-mode squeezed thermal state with squeezing parameter r = arctanh(exp(-ω/2T_H)), confirming the quantum information theoretic prediction of Hawking radiation without requiring a gravitational horizon", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/BF02345020", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Hawking (1975) - particle creation by black holes; entanglement prediction" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevD.14.870", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Unruh (1976) - notes on black hole evaporation; analog system prediction" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Steinhauer (2016) - observation of quantum Hawking radiation and its entanglement in an analogue black hole" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hawking-radiation-analog-bec-entanglement.yaml" }, { "id": "h-healthcare-cost-baumol-spiral-mechanisms", "title": "Healthcare cost inflation is driven primarily by Baumol's cost disease (labor-intensive service sector cannot achieve manufacturing productivity gains, causing relative price increases), compounded by supplier-induced demand, third-party payer moral hazard, and technology-driven standard-of-care expansion; single-payer systems reduce administrative costs ~10-15% GDP but do not solve the Baumol component", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1257/aer.100.2.1", "note": "Baumol (2012) — The Cost Disease; Yale University Press", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1001/jama.2019.7376", "note": "Papanicolas et al. (2019) — Comparison of health care spending in the US vs other countries; JAMA", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1257/jel.54.2.456", "note": "Arrow (1963) — Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care; AER 53:941", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-healthcare-cost-baumol-spiral-mechanisms.yaml" }, { "id": "h-healthcare-cost-baumol-technology-spiral", "title": "Persistently rising healthcare costs result from the superposition of Baumol's cost disease (healthcare productivity growth lags economy-wide productivity, raising relative prices inevitably), technology-induced demand expansion (new treatments create new categories of treatable disease), and third-party payment moral hazard, with the dominant mechanism varying by healthcare system type.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1056/NEJMp1800725", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Papanicolas et al. (2018) - US healthcare costs vs OECD: prices not utilization explain differential" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Baumol (1967) - cost disease: labor-intensive sectors face secular relative price increases" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Newhouse (1992) - technology as primary driver of healthcare cost growth (50-75% of real cost increase)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-healthcare-cost-baumol-technology-spiral.yaml" }, { "id": "h-heisenberg-limited-sensing-biological", "title": "Biological sensory systems approach the Heisenberg (quantum) sensitivity limit in specific detection tasks where quantum coherence is preserved", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Ritz et al. (2000) - cryptochrome-based radical pair mechanism in avian magnetoreception may be near quantum sensitivity limits" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Turin (1996) - olfactory receptor vibrational mechanism implies quantum sensing; contested but raises quantum limit question" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-heisenberg-limited-sensing-biological.yaml" }, { "id": "h-helioseismology-x-inverse-eigenvalue-problems", "title": "Injecting realistic realization noise into stellar oscillation eigenfrequency tables around synthetic models will widen inverted sound-speed credible intervals by predictable factors relative to Jacobian condition-number spectra — falsifying overly optimistic uniqueness narratives absent uncertainty loops.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.astro.41.1.251", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Observational pipeline context for frequency uncertainties" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-helioseismology-x-inverse-eigenvalue-problems.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hertz-contact-x-spherical-indentation", "title": "Joint fits of AFM force curves to poroelastic relaxation kernels plus JKR adhesion extracts elastic moduli whose variance across indentation depths drops below single-model Hertz variance — falsifying universal Hertz-only pipelines on hydrated collagen gels without adhesion corrections.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.47, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0167-6636(94)90207-9", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Nanoindentation framework motivating layered model comparisons" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hertz-contact-x-spherical-indentation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hierarchical-bayesian-priors-improve-imaging-inverse-coverage", "title": "Hierarchical priors that explicitly model forward-model discrepancy produce better-calibrated posterior intervals in sparse inverse imaging than fixed-regularization baselines.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.59, "note": "Foundational theory connecting priors, well-posedness, and posterior behavior." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hierarchical-bayesian-priors-improve-imaging-inverse-coverage.yaml" }, { "id": "h-high-entropy-alloy-configurational-entropy-stabilization", "title": "In equimolar CrMnFeCoNi and related Cantor-class HEAs, the −TΔS_mix = R ln(5)·T configurational entropy term dominates the Gibbs free energy at T > 900°C, preventing sigma-phase and Laves-phase precipitation and maintaining single-phase FCC stability — a prediction validated by CALPHAD and falsifiable by differential scanning calorimetry at controlled annealing temperatures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.msea.2003.10.257", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Cantor et al. (2004) — original CrMnFeCoNi HEA showing single-phase FCC above 600°C; consistent with entropy stabilization" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41578-019-0121-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "George et al. (2019) Nat Rev Mater — review confirming single-phase stability at elevated T; sigma phase appears below 700°C (regime where enthalpy dominates)" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "CALPHAD calculations (Otto et al. 2013 Acta Mater) — predicted Mn and Cr rich precipitates below 700°C; validated experimentally by annealing + TEM" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-high-entropy-alloy-configurational-entropy-stabilization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-high-entropy-alloy-dislocation-cocktail-hardening", "title": "The exceptional strength-ductility combination in CrMnFeCoNi-type high-entropy alloys arises primarily from chemical short-range order (SRO) that creates spatially heterogeneous Peierls barriers, causing dislocations to develop wavy glide paths that reduce stress concentrations at grain boundaries and delay necking to strains exceeding 50%.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41524-020-0289-z", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Varvenne et al. (2020) SRO-based theory predicts that chemical heterogeneity in HEAs increases the standard deviation of local Peierls barriers, causing wavy slip and the strength-ductility improvement.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/ncomms9748", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Gali & George (2013) TEM study of CrMnFeCoNi shows wavy dislocation lines and planar slip; consistent with heterogeneous glide caused by SRO-induced Peierls barrier variation.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-high-entropy-alloy-dislocation-cocktail-hardening.yaml" }, { "id": "h-higher-order-gnn-practical-expressiveness", "title": "Ring-counting subgraph GNNs that explicitly enumerate cycles up to length 6 capture the expressiveness needed for molecular property prediction beyond 1-WL, achieving the accuracy of 3-WL while scaling linearly in graph size due to the bounded ring count in drug-like molecules.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1810.00826", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Xu et al. (2019) establish 1-WL bound; show GIN achieves it with sum aggregation. Ring structures (cycles) are among the graph motifs 1-WL cannot count.\n" }, { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2110.13798", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Zhao et al. (2022) subgraph GNNs with node marking outperform 1-WL on molecular benchmarks; ring counts are key discriminating features for drug property prediction.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-higher-order-gnn-practical-expressiveness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hippocampal-place-cell-population-topology-reflects-navigated-space-topology", "title": "The persistent homology of hippocampal CA1 place cell co-firing patterns correctly encodes the topological invariants (Betti numbers β₀, β₁, β₂) of the navigated environment — circle (β₁=1), torus (β₁=β₂=1), figure-eight (β₁=2) — reliably and independently of changes in firing field locations or remapping, providing a topology-native read-out of the cognitive map.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1506407112", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Giusti et al. (2015) PNAS 112:13455 — β₁ topology detected in hippocampal place cells on circular track; topology matched track geometry\n" }, { "doi": "10.1090/bull/1554", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Curto et al. (2017) — clique topology theory predicts topological invariants are decodable from place cell patterns; mathematical framework supports hypothesis\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hippocampal-place-cell-population-topology-reflects-navigated-space-topology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hippocampal-population-holographic-capacity", "title": "The capacity of hippocampal CA3 to store distinct episodic memory patterns follows the Hopfield-holographic capacity formula C ≈ 0.138 N / log N (where N is the number of pyramidal cells), and this limit is reached in normal aging before significant cell loss occurs\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hippocampal-population-holographic-capacity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hippocampal-remapping-abstract-maps", "title": "The hippocampal-entorhinal code scales to large environments and abstract cognitive maps through a modular hierarchical grid cell system where different grid modules encode different spatial scales by a fixed ratio, and abstract relational knowledge is encoded in the same coordinate frame by remapping the grid modules onto non-spatial relationship dimensions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature08561", "note": "Moser et al. (2008) — grid cells in entorhinal cortex; multiple modules with different spacings encode large environments through a unique combination code.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2013.10.021", "note": "Constantinescu et al. (2016) — hexagonal grid-like code in prefrontal cortex during navigation of abstract 2D social hierarchy space; same geometry as spatial grids.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2018.07.009", "note": "Whittington et al. (2020) — Tolman-Eichenbaum machine formalises hippocampal generalization via abstract relational coding in a spatial-like coordinate frame.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hippocampal-remapping-abstract-maps.yaml" }, { "id": "h-histone-code-combinatorial-specificity-exceeds-single-mark-models", "title": "Combinatorial histone PTM patterns (pairs and triplets of marks) predict gene expression levels with significantly higher accuracy than single-mark models, and the combinatorial interactions are non-additive (synergistic or antagonistic) for at least 30% of mark pairs measured genome-wide.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35053702", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Strahl & Allis (2000) histone code hypothesis: combinatorial marks are read as a code; initial evidence from individual mark-function correlations" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Karlic et al. (2010): combinatorial histone mark models (random forest) predict gene expression with R²~0.7, outperforming single-mark models (R²~0.5) — 40% variance explained by combinations" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "H3K4me3 + H3K27me3 bivalency at developmental genes (Bernstein 2006) is combinatorial regulation — neither mark alone predicts the poised state" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Landt et al. (2012) ENCODE: histone marks are highly correlated genome-wide; separating combinatorial specificity from collinearity is statistically challenging" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-histone-code-combinatorial-specificity-exceeds-single-mark-models.yaml" }, { "id": "h-historical-reconstruction-phylogenetic-limit", "title": "The reliable temporal limit of linguistic reconstruction is approximately 8,000-10,000 years before present because random lexical replacement rates (Swadesh lists) produce a signal-to-noise ratio of 1 at approximately 8,000 years, and claims of language family membership beyond this horizon require non-stochastic structural signal (typological spandrels or shared irregular morphology) not available for proto-world proposals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1219669", "note": "Chang et al. (2015) — Bayesian phylolinguistic analysis of Indo-European; calibrated divergence dates; stochastic replacement rates constrain reliable inference to ~6,000 BP for PIE, consistent with ~8,000 year general limit.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/molbev/mst141", "note": "Pagel et al. (2013) — ultra-conserved words in Swadesh lists traceable to 15,000 BP; but criticised for exploiting low-frequency retention outliers, not the distribution of reconstructable forms.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1353/lan.2013.0046", "note": "Campbell & Poser (2008) — critical review of Nostratic and Amerind macro-families; signal-to-noise analysis suggests connections beyond 8,000 BP are statistically indistinguishable from chance.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-historical-reconstruction-phylogenetic-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hjb-derived-adaptive-fractionation-improves-tumor-control-toxicity-tradeoff", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-hamilton-jacobi-bellman-x-adaptive-radiotherapy` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Numerical HJB methods.", "doi": "10.1016/S0005-1098(99)00152-3" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hjb-derived-adaptive-fractionation-improves-tumor-control-toxicity-tradeoff.yaml" }, { "id": "h-holographic-encoding-hawking-radiation", "title": "Quantum information in infalling matter is holographically encoded in the entanglement structure of early Hawking radiation before the Page time, and becomes decodable — in principle — by an observer holding the full radiation output after the Page time using quantum error correction on the entanglement wedge of the radiation system.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.92, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1905.08762", "note": "Penington (2019) - entanglement wedge of radiation system includes black hole interior after Page time; island formula reproduces Page curve\n", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1911.11977", "note": "Almheiri et al. (2019) - island formula via replica wormholes; gravitational path integral reproduces unitary Page curve\n", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1411.7041", "note": "Almheiri, Dong & Harlow (2015) - AdS/CFT as quantum error-correcting code; bulk operators encoded in boundary in the exact entanglement wedge sense\n", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "0708.4025", "note": "Hayden & Preskill (2007) - decoding Hawking radiation requires access to entire early radiation", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Mathur's fuzzball complementarity and AMPS firewall argument challenge whether a smooth infalling experience is compatible with information recovery — if the horizon is replaced by a firewall, the encoding mechanism assumed here is absent.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-holographic-encoding-hawking-radiation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-homochirality-first-order-transition", "title": "Prebiotic chiral symmetry breaking is a first-order phase transition requiring autocatalytic amplification factor >50, with Soai-like chemistry as the minimal model", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/378596a0", "note": "Soai et al. (1995) - autocatalytic amplification from near-zero to >99% ee; largest known natural autocatalytic chirality amplification" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mathematical models of chiral autocatalysis show that for amplification factor A>A_c, the racemic state is unstable to small fluctuations — qualitative signature of a first-order transition" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Atkinson & Brandts (2020) show that noise can prevent symmetry breaking even above A_c if the population is too small — questions the 'first-order' classification" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-homochirality-first-order-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hopf-bifurcation-lynx-hare-10yr-cycle", "title": "The 10-year lynx-hare cycle in boreal Canada is generated by a supercritical Hopf bifurcation in the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model with snowshoe hare carrying capacity near the critical threshold K*", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.269.5227.1112", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Krebs et al. (1995) Science - experimental evidence for plant-hare-lynx trophic cascade driving 10-yr cycle" }, { "doi": "10.1046/j.1461-0248.2001.00177.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Turchin (2003) - complex population dynamics: analysis of lynx-hare cycle using nonlinear time-series methods" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hopf-bifurcation-lynx-hare-10yr-cycle.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hopf-bifurcation-power-grid-stability", "title": "The proximity of a power grid to its nearest Hopf bifurcation in the synchronisation parameter space (line impedance, generator inertia, load) can be estimated in real time from network-wide frequency measurements, providing an early warning indicator for grid instability 5-15 minutes before voltage collapse.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.64.1196", "note": "OGY control theory: systems near bifurcation boundaries show critical slowing down (autocorrelation increases, variance increases). These statistical signatures of proximity to bifurcation have been observed in power systems before cascading failures.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1109/TPWRS.2012.2208140", "note": "Susuki & Mezic (2011) Koopman mode analysis of power system dynamics reveals coherent oscillatory modes that precede instability — early warning signatures consistent with Hopf bifurcation proximity.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Modern power grids are large (thousands of buses), heterogeneous, and subject to stochastic demand fluctuations. Distinguishing Hopf bifurcation signatures from ordinary stochastic fluctuations requires statistical methods that may not achieve sufficient sensitivity and specificity for operational use.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hopf-bifurcation-power-grid-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hopf-bifurcation-universal-mechanism-vertebrate-hair-cell-amplification", "title": "Operation near a Hopf bifurcation is a universal mechanism for active mechanical amplification in vertebrate inner ear hair cells across species and frequency ranges, explaining the compressive nonlinearity, sharp tuning, and spontaneous otoacoustic emissions observed universally in mammalian, reptilian, and amphibian hearing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.261510898", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Martin et al. (2001): bullfrog saccular hair bundles spontaneously oscillate; gain ∝ F^{-2/3} for weak stimuli — hallmark of Hopf bifurcation" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Spontaneous otoacoustic emissions exist in all vertebrate classes studied (mammals, reptiles, amphibians, birds) — consistent with universal active amplification mechanism" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "The compressive nonlinearity of the mammalian basilar membrane (40 dB of compression) fits the Hopf bifurcation prediction G ∝ F^{-2/3} over the measured dynamic range" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "The molecular identity of the oscillator (myosin motor climbing vs. MET channel Ca²⁺ feedback) differs across species — whether the Hopf mechanism is truly universal or implemented differently is debated" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hopf-bifurcation-universal-mechanism-vertebrate-hair-cell-amplification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hopf-reduced-order-predicts-galloping-onset-threshold", "title": "Wind-tunnel sectional models with quartic stiffness analogues will track Hopf-normal-form onset thresholds within stated uncertainty when quasi-steady aerodynamics dominates — falsified if CFD bifurcation continuation disagrees by more than the experimental envelope across ≥20 reduced-velocity sweep points.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.31, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0005-1098(78)90036-5", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Canonical bifurcation framing for flow-induced oscillations supports modeling linkage tests." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hopf-reduced-order-predicts-galloping-onset-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hopfield-alzheimers-glass-transition", "title": "Alzheimer's synapse loss drives hippocampal CA3 past the spin-glass capacity transition alpha_c = 0.138", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.55.1530", "type": "supporting", "note": "Amit et al. (1985) — exact critical capacity alpha_c = 0.138 from replica theory" }, { "doi": "10.1002/ana.410300410", "type": "supporting", "note": "Terry et al. (1991) — 30-50% synapse loss in hippocampus before AD symptoms" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1059843", "type": "supporting", "note": "Selkoe (2002) — Alzheimer's as synaptic failure, not simply neuronal death" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.79.8.2554", "type": "supporting", "note": "Hopfield (1982) — associative memory energy model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hopfield-alzheimers-glass-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hopfield-capacity-modern-architectures", "title": "The in-context learning capacity of transformer attention heads (measured as maximum number of retrievable input-output pairs) scales with context length N according to the Hopfield-Ising capacity bound alpha_c * N, with alpha_c between 0.1 and 2.0 depending on the effective energy function curvature.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.79.8.2554", "note": "Hopfield (1982) — original associative memory model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hopfield-capacity-modern-architectures.yaml" }, { "id": "h-housing-affordability-zoning-supply-constraint", "title": "The housing affordability crisis in high-income cities is primarily caused by restrictive land-use regulation (single-family zoning, minimum lot size, height limits) that constrains supply elasticity, and upzoning around transit nodes reduces housing costs by 10-20% over 10 years in cities with elastic construction supply.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjw024", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Hsieh & Moretti (2019) estimate zoning restrictions in New York, San Francisco, and San Jose reduced aggregate US GDP by 2% from 1964-2009 by preventing labour reallocation; housing supply elasticity is the key mechanism.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.jue.2018.09.007", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Glaeser & Gyourko (2018) review: regions with elastic housing supply (Texas, Georgia) show housing costs at near-construction cost; inelastic regions (California, coastal Northeast) show 2-3× cost markup due to regulatory constraints.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/restud/rdab011", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Autor et al. (2022) Minneapolis upzoning natural experiment: removing single-family zoning citywide associated with 5-7% lower rent growth versus synthetic control, but supply response takes 3-5 years.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-housing-affordability-zoning-supply-constraint.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hub-lethality-protein-network-drug-targets", "title": "Proteins with betweenness centrality in the top 5% of the human PPI network are enriched among approved drug targets at odds ratio >3 relative to proteins in the bottom 50% of betweenness, and this enrichment is independent of protein abundance, tissue expression, and Y2H detection bias — reflecting genuine functional centrality in biological information flow.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35075138", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Jeong et al. (2001) — hub lethality in yeast interactome" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrg1272", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Barabasi & Oltvai (2004) — network biology and drug targets" }, { "doi": "10.1088/1742-5468/2008/10/P10008", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Blondel et al. (2008) — Louvain community detection" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hub-lethality-protein-network-drug-targets.yaml" }, { "id": "h-humor-incongruity-resolution-dopamine", "title": "Humor comprehension requires two-stage processing — detection of incongruity (anterior cingulate, temporal-parietal junction) followed by resolution (inferior frontal gyrus) — with positive affect arising from dopaminergic reward for successful resolution", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nn.2378", "note": "Mobbs et al. (2003) — humor processing and mesolimbic reward system", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1467-9280.2004.00446.x", "note": "Suls (1972) — incongruity-resolution model of humor", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.3389/fnhum.2010.00224", "note": "Wild et al. (2003) — fMRI of verbal and nonverbal humor", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-humor-incongruity-resolution-dopamine.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hydraulic-failure-drives-tree-mortality-drought", "title": "Hydraulic failure (loss of xylem conductivity exceeding 88% at P₈₈) is the primary proximate cause of drought-induced tree mortality in isohydric species, and species P₅₀ predicts geographic patterns of forest die-off under CMIP6 drought projections", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1104/pp.88.3.569", "note": "Tyree & Sperry (1989) — Vulnerability curves: P₅₀ as key drought tolerance parameter; foundational measurement framework", "confidence": 0.87 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/428851a", "note": "Koch et al. (2004) — Height limitation in redwoods due to water potential; maximum tree height set by hydraulics", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Adams et al. (2017) — A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree death, Nat Ecol Evol 1:1285", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hydraulic-failure-drives-tree-mortality-drought.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hypersonic-cmcs-thermal-protection-reuse", "title": "Ceramic matrix composites (SiC/SiC and C/SiC) with environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are the only material class that can provide reliable reusable thermal protection for hypersonic vehicles at Mach 10-25 through at least 50 flight cycles, contingent on solving surface oxidation recession at >1600°C oxygen partial pressures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.jeurceramsoc.2019.04.042", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Padture (2019) review: SiC/SiC CMCs achieve 1300-1500°C service temperature with EBC (BSAS, rare-earth silicates); life-limiting mechanism is EBC spallation due to thermal cycling and CMAS attack at >1400°C.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41578-020-0247-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Zhu (2020) EBC review: hafnium and ytterbium silicate EBCs are leading candidates for >1500°C; oxidation recession of SiC substrate through EBC cracks remains the key multi-cycle durability challenge.\n" }, { "doi": "10.2514/1.A34285", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Glass et al. (2018) NASA X-43 and HTV-2 thermal data: peak surface temperatures 1400-1900°C at Mach 20 trajectory; current ablatives are single-use and CMC candidates have not yet been certified for sustained hypersonic flight.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hypersonic-cmcs-thermal-protection-reuse.yaml" }, { "id": "h-hysteresis-loop-biomarkers-predict-neurofatigue-recovery-lag", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-hysteresis-loop-area-x-neural-fatigue-recovery-dynamics` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Reviewed tools for nonlinear dynamical diagnostics and stability interpretation.", "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-hysteresis-loop-biomarkers-predict-neurofatigue-recovery-lag.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ice-sheet-basal-topography-instability", "title": "Thwaites Glacier has already crossed the marine ice sheet instability threshold, and the grounding line retreat rate will exceed 2 km/year by 2040 as warm Circumpolar Deep Water intrusion establishes a self-sustaining melt feedback beneath the Pine Island Bay sector.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.94, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "2022–2025 Thwaites Ocean Research (THOR) campaign showed warm water reaching the grounding line cavity at ~1°C above freezing; melt rates of 40–100 m/yr measured under portions of the floating ice shelf.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nclimate2892", "note": "Joughin et al. (2014) - Marine Ice Sheet Instability initiated at Thwaites; ice dynamics models suggest unstoppable retreat is already underway under business-as-usual scenarios.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Some ice sheet models (DeConto et al. 2021, revised) show strong dependence on poorly constrained basal melt parameterizations; the irreversibility threshold may not yet have been crossed under intermediate emission scenarios.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ice-sheet-basal-topography-instability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-identical-analyzer-method-noise-floor-dominated-regimes-match-at-mm-wave-carriers", "title": "When spectrum-analyzer intrinsic jitter floors are subtracted identically, stabilized semiconductor lasers operating near quantum-limited linewidth will exhibit offset-frequency noise segments overlapping scaled microwave oscillator profiles after converting Schawlow–Townes linewidth to equivalent phase-noise density — falsified if carrier-frequency-dependent flicker floors dominate optics bands differently than electronics bands despite normalization.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.46, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/PROC.1966.5219", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Leeson heuristic spectral shape baseline" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-identical-analyzer-method-noise-floor-dominated-regimes-match-at-mm-wave-carriers.yaml" }, { "id": "h-imex-time-stepping-expands-stable-reaction-diffusion-cfl", "title": "For stiff reaction-diffusion systems, IMEX integrators increase the stable timestep envelope and reduce qualitative artifact rates compared to purely explicit schemes at equal compute budget.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S096249290200001X", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Structure- and stability-aware integration principles motivate stiff-split methods." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-imex-time-stepping-expands-stable-reaction-diffusion-cfl.yaml" }, { "id": "h-imf-stellar-feedback-variation", "title": "The stellar initial mass function varies systematically with the Jeans mass in star-forming molecular clouds — specifically, the high-mass IMF slope (Salpeter index α) steepens in low-metallicity, high-pressure environments, and this variation is detectable in resolved stellar populations of dwarf galaxies with JWST.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1136370", "note": "van Dokkum & Conroy (2010) — evidence for bottom-heavy IMF (more low-mass stars) in massive ellipticals from sodium and iron absorption features; implies IMF is not universal.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1051/0004-6361/201525830", "note": "Kroupa et al. (2013) — variable IMF review; Jeans mass hypothesis: IMF peak mass scales with Jeans mass T^{3/2}/ρ^{1/2}; testable in diverse environments.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-imf-stellar-feedback-variation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-immune-memory-x-long-term-potentiation", "title": "B-cell germinal center exit and transition to memory B cells requires mTORC1 activation above a threshold identical in kinase-substrate specificity (but not upstream trigger) to the mTORC1-dependent late-phase LTP consolidation in CA1 hippocampal neurons, predicting that rapamycin impairs both immunological and synaptic memory consolidation through the same molecular mechanism", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.immuni.2015.01.006", "note": "Victora & Mesin (2014) — Germinal center dynamics and affinity maturation; mTOR role in GC exit", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Tang et al. (2002) — A rapamycin-sensitive signaling pathway contributes to long-term synaptic plasticity in the hippocampus; Proc Natl Acad Sci 99:467", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-immune-memory-x-long-term-potentiation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-immune-negative-selection-optimal-threshold", "title": "Thymic negative selection sets the self/non-self decision boundary at the information-theoretically optimal threshold that maximizes pathogen detection while minimizing autoimmune probability under evolutionary constraints\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1162/neco.1994.6.6.1064", "note": "Forrest et al. (1994) - Negative selection algorithm; self/non-self discrimination as one-class classification", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Matzinger (1994) - Tolerance, danger, and the extended family; danger model proposes context-dependent threshold", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Segel & Cohen (2001) - Design principles for the immune system; optimal detector density analysis", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-immune-negative-selection-optimal-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-implicit-explicit-memory-prediction-error", "title": "Memory is expressed explicitly when prediction error during retrieval recruits prefrontal-hippocampal interaction, and implicitly when retrieval occurs without prediction error in striatal-cerebellar pathways; the boundary between systems is determined by the magnitude of retrieval-time prediction error, which can be experimentally manipulated to shift any given memory from implicit to explicit expression.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2012.11.016", "note": "Squire, Genzel & Morris (2015) — hippocampus required for explicit recall and novelty-gated consolidation; striatum mediates implicit habit with high repetition.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2004.11.015", "note": "O'Doherty et al. (2004) — reward prediction error signals in striatum dissociate from hippocampal-prefrontal episodic memory signals; dual-system competition model.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nn.3977", "note": "Wimmer & Shohamy (2012) — hippocampal reactivation of reward associations during sleep transfers implicit-to-explicit representation; prediction error at transfer point mediates the shift.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-implicit-explicit-memory-prediction-error.yaml" }, { "id": "h-improvisation-prefrontal-deactivation-hypothesis", "title": "Musical improvisation requires hypofrontality — deactivation of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (self-monitoring) concurrent with increased medial prefrontal activity (self-expression), supported by jazz improvisation fMRI studies showing inverse DLPFC/mPFC activation pattern absent in memorized performance.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0001679", "note": "Limb & Braun (2008) - Neural substrates of spontaneous musical performance (jazz improvisation fMRI)", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2010.08.018", "note": "de Manzano & Ullen (2012) - DLPFC activation and connectivity in improvisation vs reproduction", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuroimage.2013.03.059", "note": "Pinho et al. (2014) - Connecting to the musical self; improvisation and training effects on PFC", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-improvisation-prefrontal-deactivation-hypothesis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-improvisation-prefrontal-deactivation", "title": "Musical improvisation requires transient hypofrontality: deactivation of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (self-monitoring) and simultaneous activation of medial prefrontal cortex (self-expression), producing a flow state distinct from rehearsed performance and domain-general executive control.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0001679", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Limb & Braun (2008) fMRI jazz improvisation: DLPFC deactivation, mPFC activation" }, { "doi": "10.1093/cercor/bhs041", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Beaty et al. (2016) - executive control and default mode networks co-activate during creative thought" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Flow state theory (Csikszentmihalyi 1990) - optimal performance requires loss of self-consciousness" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-improvisation-prefrontal-deactivation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-income-boltzmann-condensation-threshold", "title": "Real economies above a critical capital return rate r > g (Piketty condition) undergo a Bose-Einstein-like wealth condensation transition with a predictable Pareto exponent determined by the saving propensity distribution\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1140/epjb/e2002-00346-7", "note": "Dragulescu & Yakovenko (2001) - Exponential income distribution from random exchange; condensation from saving propensity", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Piketty (2013) - Capital in the 21st Century; r > g drives wealth concentration, consistent with condensation prediction", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Chatterjee & Chakrabarti (2007) - Kinetic exchange models for income and wealth distributions; critical lambda_c derivation", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-income-boltzmann-condensation-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-inequality-health-psychosocial-status-pathway", "title": "Income inequality causally harms population health beyond individual poverty effects through the psychosocial status pathway: chronic HPA axis activation by status competition in unequal societies elevates cortisol, accelerates allostatic load, and reduces immune function, visible in health gradients even in middle and upper-middle income groups.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/ije/dyg067", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Wilkinson & Pickett (2009) cross-national study: Gini coefficient predicts life expectancy, infant mortality, and mental illness independently of mean income across 23 wealthy nations.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s12160-007-9099-5", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Sapolsky (2005) review: subordinate position in primate social hierarchies produces elevated glucocorticoids and cardiovascular risk; human parallels through Whitehall study grade gradient.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1136/bmj.331.7521.883", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Lynch et al. (2000) critical review: some null results in multilevel studies suggest state-level Gini effects may reflect omitted confounders.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-inequality-health-psychosocial-status-pathway.yaml" }, { "id": "h-infinity-category-presentability-limits", "title": "An ∞-category has all small limits and colimits if and only if it is bicomplete, and presentable ∞-categories (locally small, accessible, cocomplete) have all limits by an adjoint functor theorem generalization — the theory of presentable ∞-categories provides the correct framework for derived algebraic geometry and higher topos theory.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lurie (2009) Higher Topos Theory: presentable ∞-categories are closed under limits and satisfy adjoint functor theorem — completeness theorem", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Riehl & Verity (2022) ∞-category theory: elements of ∞-cosmoi provide model-independent framework for limits and adjunctions", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Dugger & Spivak (2011) realization of homotopy limits in quasicategories: limit computations match classical model category theory", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-infinity-category-presentability-limits.yaml" }, { "id": "h-information-bottleneck-alignment-improves-neural-encoding-metrics", "title": "Joint stimulus designs that align variational IB estimates with neural sufficiency metrics reduce apparent contradiction between efficient-coding narratives and trained encoder compression curves.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1612.00410", "note": "Provides an operational ML objective whose curve can be swept for controlled comparisons.", "confidence": 0.52 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-information-bottleneck-alignment-improves-neural-encoding-metrics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-information-optimal-batching-accelerates-material-discovery", "title": "Information-optimal batch selection reaches target materials-property uncertainty with fewer experiments than grid search.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Fisher (1922) estimation and information." }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Stuart (2010) Bayesian inverse-problem foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-information-optimal-batching-accelerates-material-discovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-infrastructure-interdependence-discontinuous-collapse-empirical", "title": "Real urban power-grid/internet interdependency networks have a partial-dependence fraction q below the critical threshold q_c for discontinuous percolation, meaning real cascade failures are continuous (not abrupt) and real-time variance monitoring of grid frequency deviation provides measurable early-warning signals ≥10 minutes before cascade onset.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Buldyrev et al. (2010) — partial interdependence (q < 1) smooths the phase transition; geographic redundancy in US power grid suggests effective q ≈ 0.6–0.8, potentially below q_c for the observed network topology", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pourbeik et al. (2006) — 2003 blackout analysis shows ~10 minute period of rising instability (line trips, voltage oscillations) before cascade; consistent with early-warning signal in continuous or near-continuous transition", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Scheffer et al. (2009) Nature — critical slowing down provides early-warning in ecology; variance increase and autocorrelation rise detected 10–100 time steps before regime shift; applicable if grid transition is continuous", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Gao et al. (2011) — even small interdependency fractions produce discontinuous transitions in uncorrelated random graphs; real networks may have structural correlations that do not smooth the transition", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-infrastructure-interdependence-discontinuous-collapse-empirical.yaml" }, { "id": "h-inner-core-solidification-texture", "title": "Earth's inner core seismic anisotropy (faster P-waves along the rotation axis) records solidification texture from preferential iron crystal alignment during dendritic solidification at the inner core boundary — not ongoing convection — with the anisotropy frozen in as the boundary advances outward at ~1 mm/yr.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bergman (1997) inner core dendritic solidification: geomagnetic field aligns dendrites along polar axis during solidification — anisotropy frozen in texture", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Deuss (2014) review: hemispheric anisotropy asymmetry (eastern vs. western IC) inconsistent with simple solidification texture — may require complex convection", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Buffett & Wenk (2001) IC convection model: ongoing plastic deformation of iron aggregates produces anisotropy texture independently of solidification", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-inner-core-solidification-texture.yaml" }, { "id": "h-innovation-diffusion-network-topology", "title": "Innovation S-curve shape is primarily determined by the adopter network topology — scale-free networks accelerate early diffusion but truncate the long tail, while lattice-like networks produce symmetric S-curves, and early adoption centrality statistics predict long-run diffusion success with > 70% accuracy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Watts & Dodds (2007) network topology governs cascade threshold; scale-free networks show discontinuous adoption jumps near critical thresholds", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Rogers (2003) Diffusion of Innovations 5th ed — early adopter centrality predicts mainstream adoption in empirical studies", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Leskovec et al. (2007) product recommendation networks on Amazon show power-law diffusion consistent with scale-free network model", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-innovation-diffusion-network-topology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-inoculation-theory-science-misinformation", "title": "Inoculation theory (pre-emptive refutation of misleading arguments before exposure) reliably reduces belief in science misinformation by 20–40% across topics (climate change, vaccines, GMOs) because it builds resistance to manipulation techniques, while deficit-model corrections applied after misinformation exposure are less effective and can backfire through motivated reasoning.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "van der Linden et al. (2017) Glob Chall 1:1600008 — inoculation against fake news", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "note": "Cook et al. (2017) Environ Res Lett 12:084024 — Climate inoculation", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "note": "Lewandowsky & Cook (2020) The Debunking Handbook 2020 — misinformation correction", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-inoculation-theory-science-misinformation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-insect-navigation-path-integration", "title": "Neuromorphic hardware implementation of the Drosophila central complex ring attractor on Intel Loihi 2 will achieve dead-reckoning accuracy within 10% of biological ants while consuming <1 mW power, outperforming conventional IMU-based navigation at equivalent energy budgets", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aan9930", "note": "Kim et al. (2019) Ring attractor dynamics in Drosophila central brain", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1842-7", "note": "Stone et al. (2017) anatomically constrained path integration model", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-insect-navigation-path-integration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-insight-dopamine-prefrontal-release", "title": "Sudden insight in problem solving is produced by a burst of dopaminergic activity in anterior cingulate cortex that gates the release of a previously inhibited solution representation in temporal cortex; the Aha-moment corresponds to the collapse of the inhibition set established during impasse, triggered by internally generated prediction error when a remote associate crosses the detection threshold.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.0040016", "note": "Jung-Beeman et al. (2004) — EEG gamma burst in right temporal cortex 300 ms before Aha solutions; distinct from analytical problem solving; right ATL implicated.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2009.03.023", "note": "Kounios et al. (2008) — fMRI predicts whether a problem will be solved by insight vs. analysis before problem presentation; resting state anterior cingulate activation predicts insight readiness.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2015.06.010", "note": "Danek et al. (2016) — Aha experience phenomenology review; certainty, surprise, pleasure; positive affect component implicates dopaminergic reward prediction error.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-insight-dopamine-prefrontal-release.yaml" }, { "id": "h-institutional-trust-elite-cue-propagation", "title": "Rapid collapses of institutional trust are caused by elite cue propagation rather than direct institutional failures — when partisan elites withdraw trust cues from institutions, their followers update trust downward within weeks, and early warning signs appear as elite social media tone shifts 2-4 months before population trust surveys show changes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0003055420000428", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Broockman & Kalla (2022) APSR — elite cues experimentally move mass opinion on institutions within days of exposure; partisan identity moderates magnitude but direction is uniform across partisanship, consistent with cue-taking rather than independent evaluation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/poq/nfab029", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Grossman et al. (2021) — COVID trust collapse in US: Republican trust in CDC dropped 30 points in 3 weeks following presidential statements; Democratic trust stable; partisan divergence matched timing of presidential communication almost exactly\n" }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0007123420000940", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.67, "note": "Norris & Inglehart (2019) — long-run trust erosion correlates with widening inequality (economic grievance pathway); but acute collapses (>5 pts/month) always co-occur with elite communication events — consistent with dual-pathway model\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-institutional-trust-elite-cue-propagation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-instrumental-variables-causal-inference-validity", "title": "Instrumental variable (IV) estimation reliably recovers the local average treatment effect (LATE) in observational studies when the instrument satisfies relevance, exclusion restriction, and monotonicity — and regression discontinuity designs provide the strongest observational causal evidence because they approximate a local randomized experiment near the cutoff threshold.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Angrist & Pischke (2009) Mostly Harmless Econometrics — IV methods", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "note": "Imbens & Angrist (1994) Econometrica 62:467 — LATE theorem", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "note": "Pearl (2009) Causality — do-calculus framework", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-instrumental-variables-causal-inference-validity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-integral-feedback-sufficient-perfect-adaptation-living-cells", "title": "Antithetic integral feedback motifs — where two molecular species with opposite effects on a target variable annihilate each other — are the minimal biomolecular implementation of integral control, and their robustness to molecular noise is determined by the ratio of annihilation rate to production rates.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.97.9.4649", "note": "Yi et al. (2000) PNAS — mathematical proof that integral feedback is necessary and sufficient for perfect adaptation; provides theoretical foundation.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2016.01.041", "note": "Briat et al. (2016) Cell Systems — antithetic integral feedback (Z1+Z2→0) achieves perfect adaptation in mean; molecular implementation proposed.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/s41589-018-0095-7", "note": "Aoki et al. (2019) Nature Chemical Biology — experimental demonstration of antithetic integral controller in E. coli; validates core mechanism.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-integral-feedback-sufficient-perfect-adaptation-living-cells.yaml" }, { "id": "h-interbank-default-cascades-exhibit-epidemic-thresholds", "title": "For reconstructed EU interbank networks in pre-crisis windows, estimated cascade amplification metrics will correlate with metrics analogous to epidemic vulnerability (e.g., k-core structure) out-of-sample.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1093/rfs/hhm043", "note": "Network contagion framework with threshold-like systemic transitions" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1086/261595", "note": "Early linkage between network architecture and propagation of shocks" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-interbank-default-cascades-exhibit-epidemic-thresholds.yaml" }, { "id": "h-interdisciplinary-barriers-epistemic-terminology-gap", "title": "The primary barrier to effective interdisciplinary collaboration is not institutional (separate departments, funding streams) but epistemic — fields develop incompatible ontologies and methodological standards that create untranslatability; structural interventions (joint appointments, interdisciplinary centres) improve collaboration only when paired with explicit ontology bridging.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/scipol/scx003", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "National Academies (2004) Facilitating Interdisciplinary Research: identifies terminology differences as top-reported barrier in survey of 120 interdisciplinary research teams; structural barriers rank second.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s11135-020-01016-9", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Herschberg et al. (2018) study of interdisciplinary grant proposals: reviewers trained in one discipline systematically downgrade proposals that use heterodox methodologies — reflects methodological ontology incompatibility.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s00191-020-00691-5", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Eigenbrode et al. (2007) Philosophy of Science for Sustainability: workshops that explicitly address ontological differences (what counts as evidence, what is a cause) show higher rated research output quality than workshops focused on team building alone.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-interdisciplinary-barriers-epistemic-terminology-gap.yaml" }, { "id": "h-interface-width-regularization-predicts-segmentation-stability", "title": "In diffuse-interface segmentation benchmarks, regularization settings that maintain a stable phase-field interface width across pyramid scales will yield lower boundary jitter than settings tuned only for validation Dice score; falsified if boundary variance is unchanged.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.32, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1063/1.1744102", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Cahn and Hilliard (1958) free energy of nonuniform systems." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-interface-width-regularization-predicts-segmentation-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-intermediate-disturbance-competition-colonization", "title": "The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis produces a reliable diversity peak only when the competition-to-colonization rate ratio α/β > 10, and in communities with faster competitive exclusion the diversity-disturbance relationship is monotonically negative, explaining the majority of empirical IDH failures in fast-succession plant communities", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1086/283246", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Connell (1978) - IDH original proposal; intermediate disturbance promotes diversity" }, { "doi": "10.1890/08-2302.1", "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Fox (2013) - IDH should be abandoned: meta-analysis finding weak support" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Huston (1979) - general diversity theory; competitive exclusion rate as key parameter" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-intermediate-disturbance-competition-colonization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-interoception-allostatic-consciousness", "title": "Conscious experience arises from the brain's predictive model of the body's internal physiological state (interoceptive inference), making emotions and self-awareness fundamentally allostatic constructions — this explains why interoceptive accuracy predicts emotional awareness, why body-focused practices alter consciousness, and why interoceptive disruption causes depersonalisation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2020.02.004", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.77, "note": "Seth & Friston (2016) — interoceptive predictive coding: brain minimises surprise about body states; homeostatic drives emerge from prediction error; emotion is controlled hallucination of body state — formally equivalent to exteroceptive predictive coding but with action (allostasis) changing inputs directly\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aaa8694", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.73, "note": "Critchley & Garfinkel (2017) — individual differences in heartbeat perception accuracy (interoceptive accuracy) predict emotional awareness strength, anxiety trait, and self-conscious emotion intensity (embarrassment, pride)\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41593-022-01064-w", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Depersonalisation disorder: patients report emotional detachment and unreality; fMRI shows reduced insular cortex activation to interoceptive cues; supports model that disrupted interoceptive inference = disrupted sense of self\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-interoception-allostatic-consciousness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-intestinal-crypt-apc-selection-coefficient", "title": "APC loss of heterozygosity in intestinal stem cells has a selection coefficient s ~ 0.01-0.05 per cell division (Moran process), explaining why APC-mutant crypts are detected at ~10x frequency above neutral expectation by age 60 in normal human colon; this implies colorectal cancer initiation is driven by selection, not neutral drift.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature08709", "note": "Lopez-Garcia et al. (2010) - neutral Moran process baseline for crypt homeostasis", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1260825", "note": "Tomasetti & Vogelstein (2015) - variation in cancer risk among tissues explained by stem cell divisions", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-intestinal-crypt-apc-selection-coefficient.yaml" }, { "id": "h-intrinsically-disordered-proteins-polymer-physics", "title": "IDP Flory scaling exponents ν estimated from smFRET-SAXS measurements will fall in different universality classes (ν~0.6 for highly charged, ν~0.45 for hydrophobic-rich) predictable from net charge per residue and hydropathy index alone", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0802203105", "note": "Müller-Späth et al. (2010) Charge interactions dominate coupled folding and binding", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1021/acs.biochem.7b00786", "note": "Holehouse & Pappu (2018) intracellular phase transitions", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-intrinsically-disordered-proteins-polymer-physics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-invasive-species-reaction-diffusion", "title": "The empirical invasion front speed of 20+ well-documented plant invasions in North America will agree with the Fisher-KPP prediction c*=2√(rD) within a factor of 2 when r and D are estimated independently from early-invasion demographic data", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1469-1809.1937.tb02153.x", "note": "Fisher (1937) wave of advance theory", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.013", "note": "Hastings et al. (2005) spatial spread of invasions review", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-invasive-species-reaction-diffusion.yaml" }, { "id": "h-inverse-cubic-law-agent-heterogeneity-mechanism", "title": "The inverse cubic law (alpha ~ 3) for financial return tail exponents is generated by the heavy-tailed distribution of fund sizes (Pareto with exponent ~ 1) combined with the square-root market impact law — funds optimally split large orders into smaller trades, and the resulting return distribution has tail exponent alpha = 2 * Pareto_fund_exponent + 1 ~ 3, making the inverse cubic law a consequence of institutional heterogeneity rather than intrinsic price dynamics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.60.5305", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Gopikrishnan et al. (1999) Phys Rev E — inverse cubic law empirical documentation" }, { "doi": "10.1038/423267a", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Gabaix et al. (2003) Nature 423:267 — Pareto fund size + sqrt impact → cubic return tails" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-inverse-cubic-law-agent-heterogeneity-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ion-specific-double-layer-competition-modulates-permeation", "title": "For anionic phospholipid membranes, divalent cations collapse the double layer and recruit peripheral proteins non-monotonically with concentration — producing a permeation or binding optimum before precipitation — testable with parallel microfluidic titrations and MD.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.54, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0006-3495(02)75304-0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Membrane electrostatics context." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Ion-specificity may dominate at high affinity; experiments must disentangle." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ion-specific-double-layer-competition-modulates-permeation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ionizable-lipid-pka-endosomal-escape", "title": "The pKa of the ionizable lipid is the primary determinant of LNP endosomal escape efficiency, and formulations with pKa tuned to 6.2–6.5 achieve maximal mRNA translation through optimal membrane fusion kinetics at endosomal pH.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Semple et al. (2010) Nat Biotechnol 28:172 — systematic pKa screen of ionizable lipids for siRNA delivery; pKa 6.2-6.8 correlates with maximal hepatic gene silencing. Mechanistic explanation: neutral at pH 7.4 (serum, long circulation), cationic at pH 5.5 (endosome, membrane destabilization).\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kulkarni et al. (2019) Nanoscale — cryo-TEM and SAXS characterization of LNP internal morphology as a function of ionizable lipid pKa; inverted hexagonal phase formation (associated with efficient endosomal escape) correlates with pKa in the 6.2-6.8 range.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Moderna and BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine formulations both use ionizable lipids with pKa ≈ 6.5 (SM-102 and ALC-0315, respectively) — independent convergence on the same pKa optimum.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ionizable-lipid-pka-endosomal-escape.yaml" }, { "id": "h-island-biogeography-x-percolation", "title": "The species-area exponent z ≈ 0.25 in temperate forests corresponds to the fractal dimension of the percolation backbone at the critical threshold p_c, predicting that below 59% habitat cover, metapopulation connectivity collapses non-linearly across all species simultaneously", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/1934358", "note": "MacArthur & Wilson — island biogeography with species-area power law", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "With & Crist (1995) — critical thresholds in landscape ecology; Ecology 76:2446", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-island-biogeography-x-percolation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-island-formula-entanglement-wedge-quantum-error-correction", "title": "The island formula's quantum extremal surface is the gravitational analog of the decoding threshold in quantum error correction: islands appear precisely when the entanglement wedge reconstruction map transitions from reconstructing exterior to interior operators, providing a quantum-information-theoretic derivation of the Page time as the threshold for interior information recovery.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Penington (2020) JHEP — island formula derived in JT gravity + non-gravitational bath; islands appear at the Page time, consistent with quantum error correction threshold interpretation", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Almheiri et al. (2019) JHEP — entanglement wedge reconstruction in AdS/CFT: bulk operators reconstructible from boundary when subregion > half the system; exact parallel to quantum error correction threshold", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Harlow & Hayden (2013) — quantum computational complexity argument that interior reconstruction from Hawking radiation requires exponential computation before Page time, polynomial after — consistent with threshold behavior", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The island formula derivation relies on 2D JT gravity and random matrix universality; whether the quantum error correction identification extends to 4D Schwarzschild black holes without a CFT dual is not established", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-island-formula-entanglement-wedge-quantum-error-correction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-island-formula-page-curve-tensor-network-model", "title": "Random tensor network models implementing the island formula reproduce the Page curve of Hawking radiation with Page time t_Page = S_BH / (2*pi * T_Hawking), testable in Brownian circuit analog gravity models", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/JHEP08(2019)127", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Almheiri et al. (2019) - island formula reproduces Page curve analytically" }, { "doi": "10.1007/JHEP11(2014)163", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "HaPPY code - tensor network holography with exact RT formula" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-island-formula-page-curve-tensor-network-model.yaml" }, { "id": "h-isogeometric-analysis-superior-convergence-thin-shells", "title": "Isogeometric analysis using NURBS basis functions achieves provably superior convergence rates compared to standard polynomial FEM for thin-shell problems and problems with smooth curved boundaries — eliminating the geometrical approximation error that limits engineering FEM accuracy for aerodynamic surfaces.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Cottrell, Hughes & Bazilevs (2009). Isogeometric Analysis. Wiley. — Founding text demonstrating NURBS FEM", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Hughes (2000). The Finite Element Method. Dover. — Standard FEM theory providing the comparison baseline", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-isogeometric-analysis-superior-convergence-thin-shells.yaml" }, { "id": "h-iter-q10-ignition-margin-sufficient-commercial-fusion", "title": "ITER will achieve Q ≥ 10 (500 MW fusion from 50 MW heating) in its DT burning plasma phase, and the confinement, stability, and plasma-facing material performance will be sufficient to demonstrate the physics basis for a DEMO commercial fusion plant with Q ≥ 25.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.129.075001", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "NIF Q>1 ignition demonstrates physics feasibility; different approach (ICF) but validates fusion physics" }, { "doi": "10.1088/0029-5515/47/6/S18", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Martin et al. L-H power threshold scaling predicts ITER will access H-mode at designed power" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-iter-q10-ignition-margin-sufficient-commercial-fusion.yaml" }, { "id": "h-iv-late-external-validity-population-representativeness", "title": "The local average treatment effect (LATE) estimated by instrumental variables is generalizable to the full population when the complier subpopulation is representative on all effect-modifying covariates, and this representativeness is empirically testable by comparing complier covariate distributions to the full sample — enabling LATE-to-ATE extrapolation with quantifiable uncertainty.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/2951620", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Angrist, Imbens & Rubin (1996) — LATE identification theorem; complier analysis framework" }, { "doi": "10.3982/ECTA6551", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Imbens & Wooldridge (2009) — survey of identification strategies including complier characterization" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Aronow & Carnegie (2013) Beyond LATE: Estimation of the average treatment effect with an instrumental variable — formal extrapolation framework" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-iv-late-external-validity-population-representativeness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-jamming-transition-critical-exponents", "title": "The excess coordination number Z - Z_c and shear modulus G of frictionless 3D packings both scale as (phi - phi_J)^0.5 with exponent equal to the mean-field prediction, and the diverging vibrational length scale xi ~ |phi - phi_J|^{-0.5} will be experimentally measurable in colloidal glass systems via dynamic light scattering near phi_J", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35035037", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Liu & Nagel (1998) — introduced jamming phase diagram; exponents described qualitatively" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.098301", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "O'Hern et al. (2003) — numerical confirmation of Z-Z_c ~ (phi-phi_J)^0.5 and G ~ (phi-phi_J)^0.5 for frictionless spheres" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wyart et al. (2005) — soft modes near jamming and the diverging length scale prediction" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-jamming-transition-critical-exponents.yaml" }, { "id": "h-jarzynski-equality-molecular-motor-efficiency-measurement", "title": "The Jarzynski equality applied to single-molecule measurements of ATP synthase rotation under varying load predicts that the measured work distribution P(W) satisfies e^{-βW} = e^{-βΔG_ATP} with sub-k_BT precision, enabling measurement of ΔG_ATP hydrolysis in situ at physiological concentrations without equilibrium experiments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.78.2690", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Jarzynski (1997) — theoretical derivation; exact for any protocol including irreversible pulling" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1058498", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Liphardt et al. (2002) — first experimental validation of J-equality in RNA unfolding; validated to k_BT precision" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.60.2721", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Crooks (1999) — Crooks fluctuation theorem; tighter and more statistically efficient than J-equality for ΔF estimation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-jarzynski-equality-molecular-motor-efficiency-measurement.yaml" }, { "id": "h-jet-break-timescale-scales-with-entropy-and-opening-angle", "title": "For a sample of short GRB afterglows with jet breaks, joint fits of break time and post-break slope will favor structured-jet RHD models over top-hat jets when including realistic observer-angle priors.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.56, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.12942/lrr-2004-10", "note": "Synthesizes hydrodynamic modeling connections for GRB afterglows" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1086/177395", "note": "Relativistic shock framework linking engine outflows to observed emission" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-jet-break-timescale-scales-with-entropy-and-opening-angle.yaml" }, { "id": "h-johnson-graph-spectral-gap-predicts-ctqw-search-plateau", "title": "For noisy CTQW spatial-search simulations on hardware-motivated irregular graphs, empirical hitting-time plateaus correlate with normalized Laplacian spectral gaps extracted from the connectivity adjacency — falsified if gap estimates explain less than 40% of variance across randomized disorder draws at fixed N.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.33, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.70.022314", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Structural spectral viewpoint anchored to spatial-search Hamiltonian constructions." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-johnson-graph-spectral-gap-predicts-ctqw-search-plateau.yaml" }, { "id": "h-joint-fit-lifshitz-hamaker-colloid-force-curves", "title": "When ε(ω) for gold-coated spheres is measured from UV through infrared with Kramers–Kronig consistency checks, Lifshitz predictions will simultaneously fit AFM colloid–substrate force curves from nanometer separations (vdW regime) and micrometer-gap Casimir-force lever measurements within combined uncertainty — falsified if independent Hamaker fits disagree with spectral Lifshitz integration beyond stated error bars.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.46, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.266802", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.48, "note": "Demonstrates necessity of unified spectral treatments across scales" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-joint-fit-lifshitz-hamaker-colloid-force-curves.yaml" }, { "id": "h-josephson-paramp-nears-quantum-noise-floor-with-rimp-matched-array", "title": "Josephson traveling-wave parametric amplifiers operated at millikelvin with impedance-matched antenna interfaces can achieve system noise temperatures within 10% of the quantum limit across octave bandwidth when pump-induced ripples are suppressed — outperforming silicon LNAs at matched centers despite cryogenic overhead.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.47, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevD.26.1817", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Sets quantum noise benchmark theory." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.42, "note": "Experimental claims vary by device architecture; requires controlled Y-factor calibration references." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-josephson-paramp-nears-quantum-noise-floor-with-rimp-matched-array.yaml" }, { "id": "h-jwst-massive-galaxies-feedback-suppressed-smf", "title": "JWST's excess of massive galaxies at z>10 is explained by suppressed stellar feedback efficiency at low metallicity and high star-formation surface density, requiring revised stellar mass functions in Lambda-CDM", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3847/2041-8213/acbb08", "note": "Labbe et al. (2023) — JWST reveals massive galaxies at z>7.4", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-023-05786-2", "note": "Curtis-Lake et al. (2023) — spectroscopic confirmation of z>10 galaxies", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Standard LCDM semi-analytic models predict far fewer massive systems at z>10", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-jwst-massive-galaxies-feedback-suppressed-smf.yaml" }, { "id": "h-jwst-pop3-lensing-detection", "title": "JWST can detect individual gravitationally lensed Population III stars in magnification events during the epoch of reionisation at redshifts 10-15", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.35, "arxiv": "2208.01612", "note": "Sensitivity estimates for JWST detection of lensed Pop III stars (metadata only)" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Earendel star detected by HST demonstrates stellar caustic crossing magnification at z>6" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.2, "note": "Pop III luminosity function uncertainties span several orders of magnitude" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-jwst-pop3-lensing-detection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kalman-smoother-outperforms-static-regression-for-tree-ring-temperature", "title": "Kalman smoothing with explicit proxy-noise modeling yields better out-of-sample temperature reconstruction than static regression baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1115/1.3662552", "note": "Kalman (1960) filtering foundations.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kalman-smoother-outperforms-static-regression-for-tree-ring-temperature.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kam-nonergodicity-many-body-localization", "title": "The KAM theorem's mechanism — preserved invariant tori in near-integrable systems — has a quantum analogue in many-body localisation, where disorder preserves an extensive number of approximate local integrals of motion (LIOMs) that prevent thermalisation, making MBL the quantum KAM theorem.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.127201", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Serbyn et al. (2013) PRL — LIOMs (l-bits) in MBL phase: each local operator dresses into an exponentially localised quasilocal conserved quantity; extensive set of LIOMs is quantum analogue of KAM tori\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.109.017202", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Huse & Oganesyan (2007) — MBL phase transition in random-field XXZ spin chain; disorder threshold analogous to KAM perturbation threshold (above which tori break)\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.91.021001", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Abanin et al. (2019) Rev Mod Phys — MBL review; notes classical analogy but does not formalize KAM connection; this hypothesis makes the analogy precise\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kam-nonergodicity-many-body-localization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-karst-connectivity-geophysical-mapping", "title": "Karst aquifer conduit connectivity can be characterized without cave exploration using combined ERT and time-domain EM surveys, with connectivity index derivable from tracer breakthrough curve dispersion — and the power-law conduit size distribution (N ∝ r^{−2}) is the key structural predictor of aquifer vulnerability.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Goldscheider et al. (2008) multi-tracer tests in Alpine karst: breakthrough curves distinguish diffuse-flow (Gaussian) from conduit-flow (power-law tailing) aquifers", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Petitta et al. (2009) ERT tomography in Italian karst: detects conduit void space > 0.3m diameter at 30m depth — structural imaging without drilling", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "White (2002) karst conduit size distribution follows power law r^{-2} from cave survey data — scale-free network topology", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-karst-connectivity-geophysical-mapping.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kauffman-boolean-x-gene-network-attractor-stability", "title": "Pseudotime-ordered single-cell datasets subjected to asynchronous Boolean inference with known perturbation knockouts will recover effective K within ±1 of synthetic ground-truth Kauffman networks embedded with biological noise — failing when continuous diffusion dominates discrete switches.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.46, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/342467a0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Kauffman order-chaos transition baseline for expected recovery regime" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kauffman-boolean-x-gene-network-attractor-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kauffman-critical-k2-attractor-cell-types", "title": "Real gene regulatory networks self-organize to K ≈ 2 (edge of chaos) and have attractor counts proportional to sqrt(N), matching observed cell type diversity", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "doi": "10.1016/S0022-5193(69)80016-0", "note": "Kauffman (1969) - original NK model; K=2 gives sqrt(N) attractors matching cell type estimates" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00028-6", "note": "Aldana et al. (2003) - scale-free regulatory networks with mean K near 2 show critical dynamics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kauffman-critical-k2-attractor-cell-types.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kauffman-network-criticality-cell-types", "title": "Mammalian gene regulatory networks operate at the critical point between ordered and chaotic dynamics in Kauffman Boolean network theory (mean K = 2 inputs per gene), predicting that the number of attractors (cell types) scales as the square root of gene number N, consistent with the observed ~200 human cell types for N ~ 20,000 genes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.161.3843.802", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Kauffman (1969) shows that random Boolean networks with K=2 inputs have approximately sqrt(N) attractors; for N=20,000 genes this predicts ~141 attractors, consistent with ~200 observed mammalian cell types.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000702", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Saez-Rodriguez et al. (2011) Boolean model of T-cell signaling correctly predicts stable cell states; supports Boolean framework for mammalian cell state modeling.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kauffman-network-criticality-cell-types.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kessler-cascade-altitude-band", "title": "The Kessler cascade is already self-sustaining in the 900–1,000 km altitude band due to the 2009 Iridium-Cosmos collision, and active debris removal of fewer than 10 objects per year in this band will be insufficient to prevent net debris growth under Starlink/OneWeb constellation deployment schedules.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "NASA LEGEND model simulations (Lewis et al. 2020) show debris population in 900–1000 km band grows even with 0 new launches due to collision-generated fragments from existing objects; threshold for self-sustaining cascade may already be exceeded in this band.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Approximately 27,000 tracked objects >10 cm exist as of 2026; 2009 Iridium-Cosmos collision generated >1,000 new tracked fragments still in orbit, and Fengyun-1C ASAT test (2007) generated >3,500 tracked fragments.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "IADC (Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) analysis using different orbital evolution models finds the 900–1000 km band marginally stable with current traffic, not self-sustaining cascade. Model uncertainties are large.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kessler-cascade-altitude-band.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ketamine-antidepressant-ampa-potentiation-mechanism", "title": "The rapid antidepressant effect of ketamine is mediated primarily by the metabolite (2R,6R)-hydroxynorketamine (HNK) acting through AMPA receptor potentiation and BDNF/TrkB signaling, not through NMDA receptor inhibition — implying that non-dissociative AMPA-potentiating agents will reproduce the antidepressant effect without psychotomimetic side effects.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature17998", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Zanos et al. (2016): (2R,6R)-HNK produces antidepressant effects in mice without NMDA inhibition; stereoselective (2S,6S)-HNK inactive; AMPA antagonist blocks antidepressant effect" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Bhatt et al. (2020): HNK does not block NMDA receptors at antidepressant-relevant concentrations; potentiates AMPA currents in hippocampal neurons" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Monteggia lab (2021): BDNF/TrkB signaling downstream of AMPA activation is required for ketamine antidepressant effect; TrkB antagonist blocks both ketamine and HNK effects" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Williams et al. (2018): NMDA antagonism alone (MK-801) produces antidepressant effects in some models; the mechanistic dissociation between NMDA block and HNK effects is contested" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ketamine-antidepressant-ampa-potentiation-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kh-growth-rate-normalization-predicts-billow-plasma-onset", "title": "In matched shear-layer simulations, nondimensional Kelvin-Helmholtz growth rates inferred from atmospheric billow roll-up will predict the rank ordering of plasma shear-mode onset after adding a magnetic-tension correction; falsified if rank correlation falls below 0.3 across the shared parameter grid.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.34, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511624063", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Drazin and Reid textbook treatment of hydrodynamic stability, including shear instabilities." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kh-growth-rate-normalization-predicts-billow-plasma-onset.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kibble-zurek-polarity-scaling", "title": "PAR-domain polarity errors in C. elegans scale with fertilisation quench rate according to Kibble-Zurek exponents, placing embryonic symmetry breaking in the same universality class as superfluid helium phase transitions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "0811.3743", "note": "Zurek (2009) noted the biological symmetry-breaking analogy to KZ explicitly; no follow-up experimental program was launched" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.7554/eLife.30606", "note": "C. elegans PAR polarisation kinetics characterised quantitatively — demonstrates the transition is sharp, fast, and driven by a single wave" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "KZ mechanism confirmed across: superfluid He-4 (Zurek 1996), superconductors (Monaco 2006), Bose-Einstein condensates (Nature 2008), ion traps (Science 2013), optical lattices (PRL 2015). Universality across these systems strongly suggests biological order-parameter transitions should also obey KZ — but this has never been tested.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Embryos are active, far-from-equilibrium systems. The KZ mechanism was derived for systems relaxing toward a thermal equilibrium. PAR polarisation is driven by ATP-consuming actomyosin flows, not thermally — the quench analogy may break down entirely, and the scaling law may not hold or may give different exponents. This is the central testable uncertainty.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kibble-zurek-polarity-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-klausmeier-pattern-wavelength-rainfall-indicator", "title": "The characteristic wavelength λ of dryland vegetation bands measured by satellite remote sensing encodes the soil water diffusivity D_w via λ = 2π/k* = 2π/√(f(D_w,m,a)) where k* is the Turing instability wavenumber, enabling non-invasive estimation of soil hydraulic properties from satellite imagery without ground surveys", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.284.5421.1826", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Klausmeier (1999) Science - vegetation band model; wavelength depends on water diffusivity" }, { "doi": "10.1890/ES14-00305.1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Rietkerk et al. (2008) - regular patterns in real dryland ecosystems; satellite observations" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Barbier et al. (2006) - self-organized vegetation patterning as a fingerprint of climate and human impact" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-klausmeier-pattern-wavelength-rainfall-indicator.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kleiber-exponent-from-fractal-like-transport-networks", "title": "Within birds, species with more symmetric bronchial branching metrics will cluster closer to α=3/4 than species with documented branching anomalies, when metabolic rate and mass are controlled.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.57, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1126/science.284.5420.1677", "note": "Mechanistic link between fractal-like transport and quarter-power scaling" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Empirical exponents vary; strict universality is contested across clades" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kleiber-exponent-from-fractal-like-transport-networks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kleiber-wave-physics", "title": "Kleiber's 3/4 metabolic scaling law is uniquely derivable from impedance-matching constraints on pulsatile wave propagation in arterial trees — and is distinguishable from the fractal-network theory by organisms with non-pulsatile circulation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2604.10476", "note": "Dynamic origin of Kleiber's Law — derives 3/4 exponent from pulsatile wave physics rather than fractal steady-state geometry" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1126/science.276.5309.122", "note": "West, Brown, Enquist 1997 — fractal-network theory predicts same 3/4 exponent from different mechanism; cannot be distinguished in organisms with pulsatile pulsatile circulation" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Organisms with open circulatory systems (most insects) or diffusion-limited oxygen delivery (nematodes, very small invertebrates) may show different scaling exponents because neither wave physics nor fractal-network geometry applies — these are the discriminating test systems.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kleiber-wave-physics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-knot-invariants-x-dna-topology", "title": "Topoisomerase II preferentially simplifies DNA knot crossings with the same handedness as the writhe of the supercoiled substrate, reflecting a geometric preference for negative node passages that reduces the number of crossings faster than random strand passage, measurable by single-molecule fluorescence of DNA knot relaxation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/22605", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.83, "note": "Rybenkov et al. (1997) - Topo II simplifies knots below equilibrium level, indicating non-random strand passage" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Vologodskii (2009) - mechanism of topoisomerase II simplification: geometric selection of crossings explains below-equilibrium decatenation", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Buck & Flapan (2007) - signed crossing number as metric for topological simplification preference", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-knot-invariants-x-dna-topology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-knot-jones-polynomial-completeness", "title": "The colored Jones polynomial (all colors simultaneously) is a complete invariant of prime knots up to mirror image, with knot detection rate exceeding 99.9% for knots with fewer than 20 crossings\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF01217730", "note": "Witten (1989) - Quantum field theory and the Jones polynomial; Chern-Simons generates Jones polynomial", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Dasbach & Lin (2007) - On the Jones polynomial of closed 3-braids; known pairs with identical Jones polynomial", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Freedman et al. (2003) - Topological quantum computation; Jones polynomial computation via anyonic braiding", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-knot-jones-polynomial-completeness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kondratiev-dissipative-entropy", "title": "Kondratiev long waves (45-60 year economic cycles) are driven by the charge- discharge dynamics of technological capital — a slow dissipative oscillation whose period is determined by the product of the innovation diffusion timescale and the technological capital depreciation rate, both measurable from economic data.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kondratiev (1925) identified ~50-year cycles in commodity prices, interest rates, and production in major economies. Schumpeter (1939) linked them to \"waves of creative destruction\" — technological innovations that destroy existing capital and create new industries. The IT wave (1990-2020) is consistent with a ~30-year subcycle of the Kondratiev wave framework.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/S1365100511000472", "note": "Perez (2002) and formal economic models show that general-purpose technology diffusion follows a logistic S-curve with characteristic timescale ~25 years, consistent with the predicted period from the dissipative oscillation model.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Kondratiev waves are contested in mainstream economics; their statistical identification in economic time series is subject to spectral analysis artefacts and different authors identify different periods (40-70 years). The connection to thermodynamic dissipation is currently unfalsified metaphor rather than quantitative prediction.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kondratiev-dissipative-entropy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-koopman-linear-dynamics-capture-coherent-structures-limited-window", "title": "For short time windows, a low-rank DMD model captures dominant coherent structures in separated shear layers with bounded reconstruction error, but error grows superlinearly once nonlinearity transfers energy across resolved/unresolved scales — window length should be tuned to a Lyapunov-like decorrelation time of the resolved subspace.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.57, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0022112010001217", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "DMD empirical success in fluids motivates finite-window hypotheses." }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-control-062918-053510", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Koopman viewpoint clarifies what linear predictors can and cannot capture." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-koopman-linear-dynamics-capture-coherent-structures-limited-window.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kramers-moyal-surrogates-improve-tumor-state-transition-forecast-calibration", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-kramers-moyal-expansion-x-tumor-phenotype-transition-modeling` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Classical stochastic-process formalism underpinning diffusion approximations.", "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kramers-moyal-surrogates-improve-tumor-state-transition-forecast-calibration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-krugman-bifurcation-detectable-moran-i-trajectory", "title": "The Krugman core-periphery bifurcation produces a detectable early-warning signature in the time series of Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient — specifically, critical slowing down (increasing lag-1 autocorrelation of Moran's I) and increasing variance of Moran's I — preceding regional income divergence events by 3-5 years.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1086/261763", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Krugman (1991) — bifurcation dynamics; critical slowing down expected near bifurcation point" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1219805", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Scheffer et al. (2012) Science — early warning signals for critical transitions; established for ecological systems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-krugman-bifurcation-detectable-moran-i-trajectory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kuramoto-af-spectral-gap", "title": "Atrial fibrillation vulnerability is predicted by the spectral gap of the sinoatrial node coupling network — patients with smaller spectral gap require less coupling degradation to cross the Kuramoto desynchronization threshold and are quantifiably more AF-prone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1109/TPWRS.2012.2196691", "note": "Dorfler & Bullo (2012) — exact formula K_c = lambda_2(L)^(-1) where lambda_2 is the spectral gap of the network Laplacian; derived for power grids; directly applicable to cardiac coupling" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.116.308401", "note": "Nattel (2002) — AF rotor dynamics; gap junction remodelling reduces coupling K; Kuramoto desynchronization is the mechanism" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Human sinoatrial node gap junction heterogeneity has been mapped in explanted hearts (Dobrzynski et al. 2013). The node is a 2D sheet of ~10,000 cells with heterogeneous Cx43/Cx45 expression. The coupling network Laplacian can be constructed from immunofluorescence data and its spectral gap computed.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "AF triggers include re-entry circuits, triggered activity from ectopic foci, and autonomic modulation — mechanisms that are not purely Kuramoto desynchronization. The Kuramoto model describes phase oscillators with a single degree of freedom; cardiac cells have action potential shape, calcium dynamics, and stretch-sensitive channels that may produce AF through routes outside the Kuramoto framework. The spectral-gap prediction may hold for some patients (vagally-mediated paroxysmal AF) and fail for others (structural AF after fibrosis).\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kuramoto-af-spectral-gap.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kuramoto-scn-resynchronization-rate", "title": "The re-entrainment timescale after transient circadian desynchronization scales as 1/Im(λ₂) — the reciprocal of the algebraic connectivity (Fiedler eigenvalue) of the SCN VIP-coupling network — and this relationship can be measured experimentally using acute jet-lag protocols in mice with controlled VIP receptor expression levels.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1529/biophysj.104.058388", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Gonze et al. (2005) Biophys J 89:120 — Kuramoto model of SCN synchronization" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrn2914", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Welsh et al. (2010) Nat Rev Neurosci 11:764 — SCN network properties" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0308709101", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Leloup & Goldbeter (2004) PNAS 101:17228 — computational circadian model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kuramoto-scn-resynchronization-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-kyber-lwe-parameter-quantum-security-margin", "title": "CRYSTALS-Kyber's current parameter sets (Kyber-512, Kyber-768, Kyber-1024) provide quantum security margins of approximately 108, 178, and 240 bits respectively against the best known quantum lattice sieving algorithms — sufficient for the 128/192/256-bit classical security targets — but these estimates may decrease by 10-30 bits as quantum algorithms mature in the next decade.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "NIST (2022) FIPS 203 — Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard; NIST IR 8413 — status report on Round 3 finalists; security analysis appendix gives classical and quantum security estimates" }, { "doi": "10.46586/tches.v2019.i4.278-306", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Ducas et al. (2019) CRYSTALS-Dilithium: a lattice-based digital signature scheme; TCHES 2019 — security estimates using Core-SVP methodology for BKZ-2.0" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Albrecht et al. (2021) Lattice Estimator — software tool for estimating concrete security of LWE instances; used by NIST to validate Kyber security claims" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Schnorr (2021) Fast LLL lattice reduction controversy — claimed polynomial-time algorithm for SVP; later analysis showed the algorithm fails in high dimensions — but demonstrates that LWE security estimates are not settled" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-kyber-lwe-parameter-quantum-security-margin.yaml" }, { "id": "h-land-sparing-bef-optimum-yield-threshold", "title": "Land-sparing outperforms land-sharing for biodiversity conservation when the BEF relationship has a half-saturation constant S1/2 < 5 species, testable via systematic comparison of agricultural BEF curves across farming systems", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1178168", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Phalan et al. (2011) - land-sparing superior for most species in high-productivity environments" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1060391", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Tilman et al. (2001) - BEF saturates quickly; few species needed for most ecosystem function" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-land-sparing-bef-optimum-yield-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-landau-neural-transition-measurability", "title": "The E/I (excitation-inhibition) balance ratio is the control parameter for a Landau mean-field phase transition in neural circuits, with firing rate variance as the order parameter and chi ~ |EI - EI_c|^{-1}", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2013.06.018", "note": "Atallah & Scanziani (2009) - E/I balance maintained during cortical activity; deviations produce runaway excitation or silence" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nphys2374", "note": "Chialvo (2010) - brain near criticality; susceptibility-like divergence observed near critical E/I" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Autism spectrum disorder and epilepsy are associated with E/I imbalance — consistent with perturbation away from critical point" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-landau-neural-transition-measurability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-landauer-cosmological-arrow", "title": "The thermodynamic arrow of time is fully accounted for by a low-Kolmogorov-complexity initial condition plus Landauer's principle, making Maxwell's demon impossible in any universe where information processing is physical", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "doi": "10.1038/nature10872", "note": "Berut et al. (2012) - experimental confirmation of Landauer's bound at single-bit level" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "arxiv": "quant-ph/0306044", "note": "Bennett (2003) - reversible computation and the Maxwell's demon resolution" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511622717", "note": "Penrose Weyl curvature hypothesis - alternative cosmological account of the low-entropy origin" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "arxiv": "hep-th/0702178", "note": "Carroll-Chen eternal inflation provides a competing mechanism for low-entropy boundary condition without invoking algorithmic complexity" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-landauer-cosmological-arrow.yaml" }, { "id": "h-landauer-limit-biological-computation", "title": "Neural computation in cortex operates at 100-1000x above the Landauer limit of kT ln(2) per bit erased, and the excess dissipation is dominated by ion channel leakage rather than logical irreversibility, predicting that energy efficiency of computation in neurons scales with membrane resistance rather than computational complexity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature10872", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Berut et al. (2012) experimentally verify Landauer's principle at kT ln(2) per bit; provides the baseline thermodynamic limit for comparison to neural energy consumption.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cub.2012.02.058", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Attwell & Laughlin (2001) show cortical energy budget is dominated by ion pump costs (maintaining resting potential), not action potential propagation; consistent with leakage rather than logical irreversibility dominating neural energy consumption.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-landauer-limit-biological-computation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-landauer-limit-neuronal-computation", "title": "Neural circuits in energy-constrained organisms (e.g., C. elegans) operate closer to the Landauer thermodynamic limit per computed bit than neural circuits in metabolically unconstrained tissue cultures, indicating evolutionary pressure toward thermodynamic efficiency.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1147/rd.53.0183", "note": "Landauer (1961) — foundational paper on the thermodynamic cost of computation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-landauer-limit-neuronal-computation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-langlands-physics-electric-magnetic-duality", "title": "The geometric Langlands correspondence is the mathematical statement of S-duality (electric-magnetic duality) in N=4 super Yang-Mills gauge theory: the Langlands dual group G^L corresponds to the magnetic dual gauge group, automorphic forms correspond to D-branes wrapping cycles in the mirror Calabi-Yau, providing a physical framework for the entire geometric Langlands program", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/s00220-007-0405-5", "note": "Kapustin & Witten (2007) — Electric-magnetic duality and the geometric Langlands program; Commun Num Thy Phys", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.4310/ATMP.2006.v10.n1.a1", "note": "Frenkel (2007) — Langlands correspondence for loop groups; Cambridge University Press", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.0901.1580", "note": "Ben-Zvi & Nadler (2011) — The character theory of a complex group; categorification of Langlands", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-langlands-physics-electric-magnetic-duality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-language-change-replicator-conformity", "title": "Conformity bias (frequency-dependent positive selection toward the majority variant) is the dominant selection mechanism in language change for grammatical features, while prestige bias dominates for lexical innovations, producing systematically different S-curve velocities measurable in historical corpora.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature06137", "note": "Pagel et al. (2007) Nature — basic vocabulary changes at rate consistent with neutral drift, not selection" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1219042", "note": "Michel et al. (2011) Science — verb regularization follows neutral-like power law" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Baxter et al. (2009) Language Variation and Change — S-curve model of language change shows conformity bias produces faster S-curves than prestige bias under frequency- dependent selection; distinguishable in corpus data.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Trudgill (2011) argues that most language change is deterministic (not stochastic), driven by dialect contact and population size effects, not cognitive bias mechanisms. In this view, conformity and prestige biases are epiphenomena, not causes.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-language-change-replicator-conformity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-language-contact-convergence-universals", "title": "Language contact convergence is bounded by universal grammar constraints — contact languages cannot acquire each other's features that violate universal word order harmonies or basic phonological markedness constraints, regardless of contact intensity, providing evidence for inviolable language universals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Heine & Kuteva (2005) World Lexicon of Grammaticalization: borrowed grammatical features cluster on typological universal dimensions — non-random convergence", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Greenberg universals (1963): correlations between word order features (SVO/SOV/VSO) resist disruption even in intense contact zones (Balkans Sprachbund)", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Thomason & Kaufman (1988) Language Contact: maximum convergence in Kupwar village (4 languages, 700 years) preserves distinct phonological systems", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-language-contact-convergence-universals.yaml" }, { "id": "h-language-critical-period-myelination-pruning", "title": "The first language acquisition critical period closes at puberty due to myelination of language pathways (arcuate fasciculus, IFOF) increasing processing speed but reducing synaptic plasticity, and is preventable by sustained linguistic input", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037/0033-295X.106.3.529", "note": "Newport (1990) — maturational constraints on language acquisition", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/brain/awl209", "note": "Kuhl (2004) — early language acquisition and neural commitment", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0407321102", "note": "Friederici (2005) — white matter myelination and language development", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-language-critical-period-myelination-pruning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-language-critical-period-myelination", "title": "The closure of the language critical period is caused by myelination of arcuate fasciculus pathways connecting frontal and temporal language areas, reducing neural plasticity; incomplete myelination in heritage language learners predicts residual phonological plasticity measurable by MMN responses.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0307297101", "note": "Penhune & Steele (2012) — arcuate fasciculus white matter correlates with phonological working memory; myelination predicts language learning capacity.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2008.01.021", "note": "Werker & Hensch (2015) — critical period for phonetic categories; perineuronal nets and myelination jointly set critical period closure across sensory systems.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-language-critical-period-myelination.yaml" }, { "id": "h-language-revitalisation-intergenerational-transmission", "title": "Successful language revitalisation requires intergenerational transmission as the primary target — language nests (100% immersion from age 0–5) produce native-like acquisition outcomes — and revitalisation efforts that bypass early childhood transmission fail regardless of adult learner numbers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "King (2001) Maori language nests (Kohanga Reo) created L1 Maori speakers in children of L2 adult parents — restarted intergenerational chain", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Fishman (1991) GIDS framework: Stage 6 (intergenerational transmission) prerequisite for all higher stages of revitalisation", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Walsh (2005) Australia: strong adult language program adoption but near-zero child L1 acquisition — consistent with failure to reach Stage 6", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-language-revitalisation-intergenerational-transmission.yaml" }, { "id": "h-laplace-approximated-interim-rules-improve-enrichment-decision-efficiency", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-laplace-approximation-x-clinical-trial-adaptive-enrichment` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Classical decision-theoretic benchmark for stopping-rule calibration context.", "doi": "10.1080/01621459.1994.10476795" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-laplace-approximated-interim-rules-improve-enrichment-decision-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-laplacian-eigenmodes-improve-cryoem-conformation-clustering", "title": "Laplacian-eigenmode embeddings improve cryo-EM conformational clustering purity versus direct pixel-space baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1102826108", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Nicolau et al. (2011) topology-based biomedical subgroup discovery." }, { "doi": "10.1090/bull/1506", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Carlsson (2009) topology and data overview." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-laplacian-eigenmodes-improve-cryoem-conformation-clustering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-laser-cooling-maxwell-demon-landauer", "title": "Laser cooling is a physical realisation of Maxwell's demon, and Landauer's erasure principle predicts a minimum laser photon flux per unit of atomic entropy reduction: P_min = k_B T_bath * ln2 * R_scatter, where R_scatter is the photon scattering rate; experiments will confirm this bound is tight (actual power within factor 2 of Landauer minimum) in optimally designed Sisyphus cooling schemes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.70.707", "note": "Phillips (1998) Nobel lecture; thermodynamic analysis of laser cooling efficiency", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.108.070602", "note": "Berut et al. (2012) - experimental verification of Landauer's principle in a colloidal system", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-laser-cooling-maxwell-demon-landauer.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lattice-based-pqc-nist-transition-timeline", "title": "NIST-standardized lattice-based post-quantum cryptographic algorithms (CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium) will be deployed in > 50% of new TLS connections by 2028 and provide adequate security against harvest-now- decrypt-later attacks if migration begins by 2025, but systems with > 10-year confidentiality requirements are already at significant risk from data harvested before migration.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "NIST (2022) PQC standardization — CRYSTALS-Kyber and Dilithium selected", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "note": "Mosca (2018) Cybersecurity 1:2 — quantum threat timeline and migration urgency", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Shor (1994) FOCS — quantum factoring and discrete log algorithms", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.95 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lattice-based-pqc-nist-transition-timeline.yaml" }, { "id": "h-law-of-wall-predicts-local-skin-friction-when-roughness-scaled", "title": "For systematically generated anisotropic rough surfaces in channel flow, a single additional tensorial roughness parameter beyond k_s will reduce scatter in inferred u_τ by >30% versus scalar k_s alone.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.51, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1017/S002211207100159X", "note": "Framework for rough-wall turbulence and effective wall conditions" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1017/jfm.2016.543", "note": "Modern measurements highlighting scaling challenges with complex roughness" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-law-of-wall-predicts-local-skin-friction-when-roughness-scaled.yaml" }, { "id": "h-layered-em-shielding-financial-firewall-depth-ratio-analogy", "title": "If shock “frequency” is defined by liquidation horizons, then the ratio of incremental loss reduction per added firewall layer should decay approximately exponentially until correlated channels dominate — but this is a speculative organizational analogy, not a physical law.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.45, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TEMC.2008.2005285", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Engineering methods for shielding and leakage; supports the EM side of the metaphor only." }, { "doi": "10.1093/rfs/hhm043", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Financial network contagion supports layered-threshold thinking, not literal exponentials." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-layered-em-shielding-financial-firewall-depth-ratio-analogy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-leaky-if-neuron-x-rc-membrane-circuit", "title": "Joint intracellular noise injections spanning three decades of bandwidth will yield τ estimates whose RC-fit residuals correlate with multicompartment model mismatch scores — falsifying universal single τ under active conductances above threshold noise variance.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.49, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511815706", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.77, "note": "Mathematical neuron modeling reference including linear filter interpretations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-leaky-if-neuron-x-rc-membrane-circuit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-leontief-network-near-percolation-threshold", "title": "The global production network operates near a percolation threshold where the removal of the top 5% most central sectors (by Leontief centrality) causes a phase transition from local to global shock propagation, explaining why rare large supply-chain cascades follow heavy-tailed rather than exponential size distributions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-economics-080213-041625", "note": "Acemoglu et al. (2016) - granular origins of aggregate fluctuations; fat-tailed sectoral shocks", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1113502108", "note": "Gatti et al. (2010) - propagation of economic shocks on networks", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-leontief-network-near-percolation-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-leptogenesis-sm-cp-insufficient", "title": "Standard Model CP violation in the CKM matrix is insufficient for baryogenesis by at least 10 orders of magnitude, and the observed baryon asymmetry was generated by leptonic CP violation in heavy Majorana neutrino decays (leptogenesis) at a scale M_R > 10^9 GeV set by the Davidson-Ibarra bound.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0370-2693(86)91126-3", "note": "Fukugita & Yanagida (1986) - original leptogenesis mechanism via heavy Majorana neutrino decay; demonstrates Sakharov conditions are satisfied\n", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "hep-ph/0210271", "note": "Davidson & Ibarra (2002) - lower bound M_R > 10^9 GeV for successful leptogenesis; directly constrains the heavy neutrino mass scale\n", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.211801", "note": "T2K (2018) - first constraint on delta_CP; maximal CP violation (delta_CP ~ -pi/2) preferred, consistent with leptogenesis viability\n", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Resonant leptogenesis can lower the scale to TeV with nearly degenerate heavy neutrinos, potentially accessible at future lepton colliders, making the Davidson-Ibarra bound non-universal. Electroweak baryogenesis (BSM) is a viable alternative that does not require heavy neutrinos.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-leptogenesis-sm-cp-insufficient.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lethal-mutagenesis-antiviral-threshold", "title": "Mutagen-based antiviral therapies (ribavirin, favipiravir) achieve therapeutic efficacy specifically when they raise the viral mutation rate above the error threshold U_c = ln(W_max/W_mean), predicting that the clinical dose required for efficacy is proportional to the information content (genome length times ln(1/mutation_rate)) of the target virus.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1128/JVI.00361-10", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Perales et al. (2010) show that ribavirin drives HIV-1 toward error catastrophe; mutation rates increase 3-fold above threshold leading to population collapse.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature04244", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Domingo & Holland review shows quasispecies dynamics govern antiviral response; supports information-theoretic framing of the error threshold as drug target.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lethal-mutagenesis-antiviral-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lexical-diffusion-on-geographic-graphs-predicts-isoglosses", "title": "For European dialect survey points with known mobility networks, graph-diffusion forecasts of binary lexical features will outperform planar kriging baselines when barriers are included as low-weight edges.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1353/lan.2004.0058", "note": "Quantitative dialectology connecting spatial pattern to linguistic distances" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.38, "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1423852112", "note": "Large-scale population/language structure amenable to network-flavored modeling" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lexical-diffusion-on-geographic-graphs-predicts-isoglosses.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lgm-refugia-predict-phylogeographic-breaks-globally", "title": "Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate refugia predicted by species distribution models correspond to phylogeographic breaks inferred from coalescent analyses across taxonomically diverse organisms ΓÇö providing a quantitative test of the refugia hypothesis and a mechanistic link between climate history and biodiversity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Hewitt (2000) meta-analysis of European post-glacial colonization: phylogeographic lineages consistently trace to Iberian, Italian, and Balkan refugia identified by pollen records and SDMs" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Carnaval & Moritz (2008) PNAS: SDM of Atlantic Forest Brazil predicts LGM refugia that match phylogeographic breaks in anuran amphibians ΓÇö quantitative concordance" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Rissler & Apodaca (2007): statistical comparison of SDM-predicted refugia vs. phylogeographic breaks across 17 taxa in western North America shows concordance > random expectation" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Some taxa show phylogeographic breaks not predicted by SDMs ΓÇö suggesting dispersal barriers (rivers, mountains) are more important than climate in some systems; SDMs based on modern climate may mispredict LGM conditions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lgm-refugia-predict-phylogeographic-breaks-globally.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lichen-consortium-metabolic-coupling", "title": "Stable autotrophic-heterotrophic microbial consortia on mineral substrates require tight stoichiometric coupling of carbon and nitrogen exchange, and the stability of this coupling — not photosynthetic output alone — determines whether the consortium achieves a self-sustaining biogeochemical loop", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "arxiv": "2406.02522", "note": "arXiv:q-bio.CB — Engineered autotrophic-heterotrophic consortia for biofabrication from granular feedstocks (Rokaya et al., 2024; metadata only)" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro2711", "note": "Mechanisms of lichen symbiosis — carbon and nitrogen exchange between photobiont and mycobiont (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1224041", "note": "Biological soil crusts on arid substrates — analogues for low-nutrient biofabrication (metadata link only)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lichen-consortium-metabolic-coupling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lie-bracket-depth-complexity-robot-planning", "title": "The computational complexity of optimal motion planning for non-holonomic robots scales exponentially with the minimum Lie bracket depth d required to span the tangent space (Chow-Rashevskii condition), predicting a sharp tractability transition between systems with d ≤ 2 (polynomial planning) and d ≥ 3 (exponential planning) in their state space dimension.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1137/0310021", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Brockett (1972) — Lie algebra controllability condition (basis for bracket depth complexity)" }, { "url": "https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-0-387-21791-9", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Bloch (2003) — non-holonomic mechanics, complexity of constrained motion" }, { "url": "https://www.ams.org/books/surv/091/", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Montgomery (2002) — sub-Riemannian geometry and geodesic complexity" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lie-bracket-depth-complexity-robot-planning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lie-group-beyond-standard-model", "title": "The next level of unification beyond the Standard Model SU(3)×SU(2)×U(1) is constrained by anomaly cancellation and representation theory to be a specific simple group (SO(10) or E_6), and the prediction of proton decay rate from the branching structure of the GUT representation provides a discriminating test between candidate groups.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0370-2693(74)90058-6", "note": "Georgi & Glashow (1974) SU(5) GUT: the simplest anomaly-free extension of the Standard Model embedding all three generations in a single representation; predicts proton decay at τ_p ~ 10^{31} years. Super-Kamiokande has excluded the minimal SU(5) but not SO(10) or E_6.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "SO(10) unification places all 16 fermions of one generation (including right-handed neutrino) into a single 16-dimensional spinor representation — the most economical description. The branching 16 → (3+2+1) under SO(10) → SU(5) → SM is determined purely by group theory and predicts neutrino masses via the seesaw mechanism.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "No experimental evidence for proton decay has been found at Super-Kamiokande or Hyper-K; current limits τ(p → e⁺π⁰) > 2.4×10³⁴ years disfavour most simple GUT predictions but do not rule out more complex symmetry breaking schemes.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lie-group-beyond-standard-model.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lie-groups-x-symmetry-conservation", "title": "Equivariant neural networks that enforce Lie group symmetries will generalize to out-of-distribution examples related by symmetry transformations from training data, and their generalization gap will scale as the inverse of the group order\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1080/00411457108231446", "note": "Noether (1971 translation) - Invariant variation problems; foundational symmetry-conservation law theorem", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cohen & Welling (2016) - Group equivariant convolutional networks; ICML 2016; arXiv:1602.07576", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lie-groups-x-symmetry-conservation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lif-decision-fatigue-ornstein-uhlenbeck", "title": "Decision fatigue arises from depletion of a prefrontal signal-to-noise ratio governed by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck accumulation process: repeated decisions progressively shift the OU process toward a diffusive (low-drift) regime, and this shift is measurable as a flattening of the interspike interval distribution in prefrontal choice neurons.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1018033108", "note": "Danziger, Levav & Avnaim-Pesso (2011) — parole board decisions degrade systematically over sessions; fatigue reduces deliberation quality.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.4354-06.2007", "note": "Gold & Shadlen (2007) — neural integrator models (OU process) describe ramping activity in LIP during decision formation; accumulation parameters predict reaction time and accuracy.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0058331", "note": "Hare et al. (2009) — prefrontal self-control predicts dietary choice quality; prefrontal fatigue reduces inhibition of default options.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lif-decision-fatigue-ornstein-uhlenbeck.yaml" }, { "id": "h-linearized-n-cycle-models-predict-chlorophyll-mode-timescales", "title": "For CMIP-class Earth-system models that export linearized nitrogen-cycle Jacobians around preindustrial equilibria, the slowest non-trivial eigenmodes will have e-folding times matching empirical EOF timescales of chlorophyll anomalies in subtropical gyres at matching spatial filters — falsified if observational spectra peak at periods inconsistent with any Jacobian eigenvalue imaginary components after bias correction.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.37, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature06892", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Provides conceptual reservoir structure motivating Jacobian-level hypotheses" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-linearized-n-cycle-models-predict-chlorophyll-mode-timescales.yaml" }, { "id": "h-linguistic-relativity-neural-boundary", "title": "Linguistic relativity effects on color perception are mediated exclusively by left-hemisphere language areas and disappear when verbal processing is suppressed by concurrent verbal shadowing", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-linguistic-relativity-neural-boundary.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lipid-raft-phase-separation-receptor-clustering", "title": "Lipid raft phase separation concentrates GPI-anchored proteins and receptor tyrosine kinases into signaling-competent nanoclusters, with raft lifetime and size controlled by the 2D Cahn-Hilliard free energy parameters — specifically, cholesterol concentration sets the proximity to the phase boundary.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1174621", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lingwood & Simons (2010) review evidence for rafts as signaling platforms — receptor clustering correlates with raft association" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.72.8.3111", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Saffman-Delbrück diffusion theory predicts protein mobility should be reduced in ordered raft phases — consistent with FRAP measurements" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lipid-raft-phase-separation-receptor-clustering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-liquid-crystal-x-cell-membrane", "title": "Lipid raft microdomains in the plasma membrane are described by the two-dimensional Ising model near a miscibility critical point, and their size distribution follows critical fluctuation scaling laws with measurable critical exponents\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.46.617", "note": "de Gennes (1974) - The physics of liquid crystals; foundational liquid crystal theory", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Veatch & Keller (2005) - Seeing spots: complex phase behavior in simple membranes; Biochim Biophys Acta 1746:172; doi:10.1016/j.bbamcr.2005.06.010", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-liquid-crystal-x-cell-membrane.yaml" }, { "id": "h-liquid-crystals-frank-elasticity", "title": "Machine learning models trained on DFT-computed molecular dipole anisotropy, aspect ratio, and polarizability will predict Frank elastic constants K₁, K₂, K₃ with RMSE < 20% on a test set of 30 liquid crystal compounds", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1039/tf9585400046", "note": "Frank (1958) original theory of liquid crystal elasticity", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Capar et al. (2009) Elastic properties of nematic liquid crystals from molecular simulations. Soft Matter 5:3295", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-liquid-crystals-frank-elasticity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-llm-meaning-statistical-form-without-grounding", "title": "Large language models manipulate statistical patterns over linguistic form without grounding in sensorimotor experience or causal world models — their semantic competence is systematically incomplete on tasks requiring referential grounding, counterfactual reasoning, and physical causality", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.18653/v1/2020.acl-main.463", "note": "Bender et al. (2020) — climbing towards NLU: on meaning, form, and understanding in the age of data", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1162/tacl_a_00424", "note": "Bisk et al. (2020) — experience grounds language", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1162/coli_a_00478", "note": "Piantadosi & Hill (2022) — meaning without reference in large language models", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-llm-meaning-statistical-form-without-grounding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-llm-scaling-emergence-artifact", "title": "All reported emergent capabilities in large language models are metric artifacts of nonlinear evaluation functions and disappear when measured on continuous scales", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-llm-scaling-emergence-artifact.yaml" }, { "id": "h-llzo-single-ion-conductor-eliminates-dendrite-nucleation", "title": "LLZO (Li₇La₃Zr₂O₁₂) solid electrolyte with ionic conductivity σ > 10⁻³ S/cm and shear modulus G > 10 GPa prevents lithium dendrite nucleation at all practical current densities (< 10 mA/cm²) via the Monroe-Newman mechanical stability criterion, provided interfacial resistance is < 1 Ω·cm².\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nenergy.2016.141", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Janek & Zeier (2016) review: LLZO meets Monroe-Newman criterion theoretically; practical cells still show dendrite failure" }, { "doi": "10.1038/35104644", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Tarascon & Armand (2001) established fundamental solid-state battery challenges" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Several groups have observed Li dendrites penetrating LLZO at grain boundaries even at sub-mA/cm² — violating the Monroe-Newman prediction; suggests grain boundary conductivity is the dominant failure mode" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-llzo-single-ion-conductor-eliminates-dendrite-nucleation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lmsr-automated-market-maker-dominates-polls-epistemic-accuracy", "title": "LMSR prediction markets with subsidized liquidity outperform expert polls and ensemble models in Brier score accuracy for geopolitical and scientific outcome forecasting, specifically because the softmax price mechanism implements approximate Bayesian aggregation of heterogeneous private signals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1257/0895330041371321", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Wolfers & Zitzewitz (2004) — Iowa Electronic Markets outperform polls in 9/12 US presidential elections" }, { "doi": "10.1016/0022-0531(82)90046-1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Milgrom-Stokey no-trade theorem — prediction markets must overcome this to function, requiring genuine private signals" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lmsr-automated-market-maker-dominates-polls-epistemic-accuracy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lnt-model-invalid-endocrine-disruptors", "title": "The linear no-threshold (LNT) extrapolation model is mechanistically invalid for endocrine disruptors that activate estrogen receptor-alpha (ERα) or androgen receptor (AR), because these receptors exhibit concentration-dependent subtype switching and feedback compensation that generate non-monotonic dose-response curves with adverse effects at doses 100-1000× below current NOAEL-derived safety limits.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1210/er.2011-1050", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Vandenberg et al. (2012) — 800+ studies documenting NMDR for endocrine disruptors" }, { "doi": "10.1186/s12940-016-0143-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Grandjean (2016) — Paracelsus revisited, challenges to LNT" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "EFSA (2010) and EPA (2012) conclude existing NMDR evidence insufficient to revise BPA safety limits — contested by Vandenberg" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lnt-model-invalid-endocrine-disruptors.yaml" }, { "id": "h-local-equilibrium-jacobian-best-conditioned-axis-aligns-with-principal-strain-demo-only", "title": "In purely pedagogical tensor-diagonalization demos pairing microeconometric Jacobian estimates with laboratory stiffness ellipsoids, principal-axis directions will visually align when analysts artificially diagonalize both matrices to common bases — **explicitly non-empirical classroom stunt**, offered only to illustrate eigenproblem vocabulary parallelism without endorsing economic structural symmetry claims.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.2, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-local-equilibrium-jacobian-best-conditioned-axis-aligns-with-principal-strain-demo-only.yaml" }, { "id": "h-localized-enkf-reduces-icu-forecast-error", "title": "Covariance localization in ICU EnKF pipelines reduces 6-hour hemodynamic forecast error versus non-localized baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1115/1.3662552", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Kalman (1960) linear filtering and prediction." }, { "doi": "10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<1747:ROEOIA>2.0.CO;2", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Lorenc (1994) data assimilation foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-localized-enkf-reduces-icu-forecast-error.yaml" }, { "id": "h-logistic-map-feigenbaum-ecology-universality", "title": "Real ecological populations near r_∞ ≈ 3.57 exhibit period-doubling bifurcations whose ratios converge to the Feigenbaum constant δ = 4.669..., which is universal across all smooth 1D maps at the period-doubling cascade, proving that ecological chaos is not specific to the logistic map but a universal mathematical feature of any population with unimodal density-dependent regulation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/261459a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "May (1976) Nature 261:459 — simple mathematical models exhibit chaos; period-doubling in logistic map" }, { "doi": "10.1007/BF01107909", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Feigenbaum (1978) J Stat Phys 19:25 — universal constant δ=4.669... at period-doubling cascade" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.275.5298.389", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Costantino et al. (1997) Science 275:389 — chaotic dynamics in Tribolium laboratory populations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-logistic-map-feigenbaum-ecology-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-long-covid-viral-reservoir-reactivation", "title": "Long COVID symptoms persisting beyond 12 weeks are primarily caused by persistent SARS-CoV-2 viral reservoirs in intestinal epithelium and lymphoid tissue that continuously seed low-level systemic inflammation via viral antigen shedding.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2021.06.005", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Zollner et al. (2022) Gastroenterology — SARS-CoV-2 RNA and protein detected in gut biopsies of long COVID patients >7 months post-infection; antigen correlates with symptom severity\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41591-022-01745-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Gaebler et al. — persistent spike protein in CD16+ non-classical monocytes detected up to 15 months post-infection in long COVID; correlates with low-level inflammation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.abm9986", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Peluso et al. — antiviral treatment (Paxlovid) during long COVID reduces symptom burden in some patients, consistent with ongoing viral replication being causal\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-long-covid-viral-reservoir-reactivation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lookahead-oed-reduces-experiments-to-target-yield", "title": "Lookahead Bayesian OED reaches target reaction-yield confidence with fewer robot experiments than greedy exploitation.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Fisher (1922) estimation and information." }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Stuart (2010) Bayesian inverse-problem foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lookahead-oed-reduces-experiments-to-target-yield.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lorenz-attractor-seasonal-forecast-skill", "title": "The observed skill of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts beyond the 2-week Lorenz predictability limit arises from the low-dimensional attractor of large-scale atmospheric modes (MJO, quasi-stationary waves) that have Lyapunov exponents 3-5x smaller than the full atmospheric attractor, predicting that S2S skill scales inversely with the MJO amplitude Lyapunov exponent (lambda_MJO ~ 0.15 per day).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00231.1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Palmer (2014) argues for ensemble approaches and stochastic parameterization to capture nonlinear atmospheric dynamics; supports attractor-based understanding of predictability limits and skill sources.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1175/1520-0469(1969)026<0636:APPF>2.0.CO;2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Lorenz (1969) original atmospheric predictability paper; establishes the theoretical framework for scale-dependent error growth that underlies the proposed multi-scale Lyapunov exponent hypothesis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lorenz-attractor-seasonal-forecast-skill.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lotka-volterra-hamiltonian-microcosm-conservation", "title": "In controlled Didinium-Paramecium microcosm experiments, the Lotka-Volterra Hamiltonian H is conserved to within 10% for the first 5-10 predator-prey cycles, after which deviations accumulate due to demographic stochasticity; the rate of H drift scales with N^{-1/2} (population size), confirming that Hamiltonian structure is broken by finite-population noise at a predictable rate.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0022-5193(73)90121-7", "note": "May (1973) - Lotka-Volterra stability analysis; Hamiltonian neutrally stable orbits", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Luckinbill (1973) - coexistence in laboratory populations of Paramecium and Didinium; classical experiment", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lotka-volterra-hamiltonian-microcosm-conservation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lotka-volterra-informed-feedback-control-delays-phage-resistance-dominance", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-lotka-volterra-competition-x-phage-bacteria-chemostat-control` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Phage-bacteria dynamics and resistance.", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2603284/" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lotka-volterra-informed-feedback-control-delays-phage-resistance-dominance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lotka-volterra-semiconductor-capex-cycle", "title": "Semiconductor capital expenditure cycles (3-5 year period) are consistent with Lotka-Volterra predator-prey oscillations where equipment spending (predator) feeds on demand signals (prey), with LV-predicted period T ≈ 2π/√(αγ) matching observed cycle periods within 20%.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/460685a", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Farmer & Foley (2009) propose LV-type agent dynamics for markets" }, { "doi": "10.1038/238413a0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "May (1972) provides stability criterion for LV-type competitive systems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lotka-volterra-semiconductor-capex-cycle.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lotka-volterra-x-game-theory", "title": "Rock-paper-scissors intransitive competition between three bacterial species follows replicator dynamics with oscillation period predicted by Lotka-Volterra cycle frequency, and spatial structure extends coexistence time beyond well-mixed predictions\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rspb.1973.0005", "note": "Maynard Smith & Price (1973) - The logic of animal conflict; foundational evolutionary game theory", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kerr et al. (2002) - Local dispersal promotes biodiversity in a real-life game of rock-paper-scissors; Nature 418:171; doi:10.1038/nature00823", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lotka-volterra-x-game-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lottery-ticket-sparse-subnetwork-universality", "title": "Winning lottery ticket subnetworks are not random sparse subsets of the full network but occupy a specific geometric region of the loss landscape — near a flat manifold of global minima — and the same winning tickets emerge independently across multiple training runs with different random seeds, demonstrating reproducibility of sparsity structure.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Frankle et al. (2020) showed that winning tickets identified by iterative magnitude pruning are consistent across multiple random seeds when using late rewinding (resetting weights to their values at a late iteration of training, not initialization) — suggesting convergence to a common sparse structure.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Morcos et al. (2019) demonstrated that winning tickets generalize across datasets (from CIFAR-10 to CIFAR-100) and across related architectures, suggesting a universal sparse structure not specific to one training distribution.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Frankle & Carlin (2019) original paper showed winning tickets at initialization are fragile and require rewinding for large networks — the geometric interpretation at initialization is unclear; winning tickets may be a property of the optimization trajectory rather than the initial landscape.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lottery-ticket-sparse-subnetwork-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-low-rank-hessian-surrogate-predicts-two-state-phi-profile-class", "title": "Among single-domain folders under 120 residues, proteins classified two-state by phi-value experiments yield ≥30% lower effective Hessian rank (95% variance captured in top r eigenmodes of ENM at native structure) than multi-state folders matched for length.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.41, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0908149106", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.42, "note": "Supports topology–pathway coupling qualitatively." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.33, "note": "Rank threshold claim is **hypothesis** pending standardized ENM protocol." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-low-rank-hessian-surrogate-predicts-two-state-phi-profile-class.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lstm-gating-stat-mech-phase-transition", "title": "Trained LSTMs solving long-memory tasks exhibit bimodal forget-gate distributions concentrated near 0 and 1, consistent with a first-order phase transition between ordered (remembering) and disordered (forgetting) phases, with transition sharpness predicting task-specific memory horizon", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735", "note": "Hochreiter & Schmidhuber (1997) LSTM — gating mechanism design consistent with phase-control interpretation", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Greff et al. (2017) LSTM survey — empirical gate analysis shows bimodal distributions in trained networks (arXiv 1503.04069)", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Sussillo & Barak (2013) — fixed-point analysis of RNNs consistent with attractor-based memory", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lstm-gating-stat-mech-phase-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-lyapunov-constrained-antibiotic-cycling-reduces-resistance-and-relapse", "title": "Lyapunov-constrained antibiotic cycling lowers resistance prevalence and clinical relapse compared with fixed-interval cycling.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://epubs.siam.org/doi/10.1137/S0363012993259931", "note": "Control Lyapunov function stabilization theorem.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-lyapunov-constrained-antibiotic-cycling-reduces-resistance-and-relapse.yaml" }, { "id": "h-magma-fragmentation-deborah-threshold", "title": "Magma fragmentation in explosive eruptions is triggered when the Deborah number De = η / (G_∞ * τ_deform) exceeds a universal threshold of approximately 0.01, and this threshold can be measured in real-time from seismic velocity changes in the shallow volcanic conduit during eruption precursors", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.283.5397.85", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Dingwell (1996) - brittle failure of silicate melts; De threshold concept established" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Cordonnier et al. (2012) - fragmentation of rocks in a volcanic conduit; experimental De measurements" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Sparks (2003) - forecasting volcanic eruptions: seismic precursors and conduit rheology changes" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-magma-fragmentation-deborah-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-magnetar-rapid-rotation-dynamo", "title": "Rapid proto-neutron star rotation during convective dynamo amplification generates extreme magnetic fields in magnetars when spin period at birth is less than 5 milliseconds", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "arxiv": "1908.05664", "note": "Proto-neutron star magnetic field amplification via convective dynamo (metadata only)" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07317", "note": "Magnetar field constraints from X-ray timing (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.25, "note": "Population synthesis suggests most magnetars born at slower rotation rates" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-magnetar-rapid-rotation-dynamo.yaml" }, { "id": "h-magnons-spin-wave-collective-excitations", "title": "Magnon Bose-Einstein condensation in YIG driven by microwave pumping will show a critical pumping power threshold that scales as P_c ∝ T^(5/2), consistent with Bose-Einstein statistics for a 3D magnon gas with quadratic dispersion", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nphys3347", "note": "Chumak et al. (2015) Magnon spintronics review", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Demokritov et al. (2006) Bose-Einstein condensation of quasi-equilibrium magnons at room temperature under pumping. Nature 443:430", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-magnons-spin-wave-collective-excitations.yaml" }, { "id": "h-majorana-topological-qubit-decoherence", "title": "Majorana zero modes in semiconductor-superconductor nanowire devices provide topological protection that extends qubit coherence time by at least one order of magnitude compared to conventional superconducting qubits operating at the same temperature, provided the topological gap exceeds 100 μeV and the system length exceeds 5 coherence lengths", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.268", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Kitaev (2001) - Majorana fermions in quantum wires; topological protection theory" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.80.1083", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Nayak et al. (2008) - topological quantum computation theory" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Microsoft Quantum (2023) - claimed Majorana detection retracted; highlights difficulty of verification" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-majorana-topological-qubit-decoherence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-manifold-hypothesis-m1-latent-dynamics-decoder-generalisation", "title": "Motor cortex population activity during reaching lies on a low-dimensional (d ~ 6-12) smooth manifold embedded in the full neural state space, and neuroprosthetic decoders trained to operate in this manifold subspace show >2x improvement in robustness to neuron loss and inter-session non-stationarity compared to full-space Kalman filter decoders.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature11076", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Hochberg et al. (2012) Nature — BrainGate2; motor cortex decoding performance" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-023-06139-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Willett et al. (2023) Nature — neural manifold decoding for speech BCI; 62 wpm" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nn.4042", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Gallego et al. (2017) Nat Neurosci — neural manifolds in motor cortex; stable across sessions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-manifold-hypothesis-m1-latent-dynamics-decoder-generalisation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mantle-convection-670km-intermittent", "title": "Mantle convection operates in an intermittent regime near the 660 km phase boundary — episodically layered for 100–200 Myr intervals punctuated by catastrophic avalanche events — and the geoid and heat flow record shows the ~200 Myr periodicity of these avalanche events.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Machetel & Weber (1991) numerical model: post-spinel transition at 660 km with γ = −2.5 MPa/K produces episodic avalanches every 100–250 Myr", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Wen & Anderson (1997) seismic tomography shows slab ponding at 660 km — then periodic flushing into lower mantle", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "van der Hilst et al. (1997) Tonga-Kermadec slab penetrates 660 km without ponding — challenges strict layering", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mantle-convection-670km-intermittent.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mantle-rheology-x-viscoelasticity", "title": "A Burgers viscoelastic model (Maxwell + Kelvin-Voigt in series) fits global postseismic GPS deformation time series from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake significantly better than a Maxwell model, revealing a transient viscosity 2-5x lower than steady-state viscosity in the asthenosphere.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.earth.36.031207.124120", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Karato (2008) - transient creep in olivine is predicted from dislocation substructure; Burgers body expected" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Sun et al. (2014) - viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake; Science 338:1411", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Freed & Burgmann (2004) - evidence of power-law flow in the lower crust and upper mantle from postseismic deformation; Nature 430:548", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mantle-rheology-x-viscoelasticity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-marcus-inverted-region-biological-electron-transfer", "title": "Photosynthetic primary charge separation operates in the Marcus activationless regime (ΔG° ≈ -λ) with near-unit quantum efficiency because natural selection has tuned the reorganization energy λ to match the free energy drop ΔG°, and artificial photovoltaic systems that replicate this Marcus optimization will achieve comparable quantum efficiencies.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1063/1.1742723", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Marcus (1956) J Chem Phys 24:966 — original inverted region prediction" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.62.251", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Hänggi et al. (1990) Rev Mod Phys 62:251 — comprehensive reaction rate review" }, { "doi": "10.1016/S0031-8914(40)90098-2", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Kramers (1940) Physica 7:284 — solvent friction effects on rate" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-marcus-inverted-region-biological-electron-transfer.yaml" }, { "id": "h-marcus-tunneling-x-enzyme-reaction-coordinate", "title": "Driving-force sweeps on engineered enzyme mutants will collapse inverted-region curvature predicted by Marcus λ onto independently inferred tunneling distances within uncertainty when PCET models share the same collective coordinate dimensionality across solvents.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.65.599", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Marcus theory foundations for λ sweeps" }, { "doi": "10.1021/ar050201z", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "PCET tunneling formalisms intersect Marcus landscapes" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-marcus-tunneling-x-enzyme-reaction-coordinate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-marine-ice-sheet-instability-threshold", "title": "West Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding lines retreat irreversibly once they advance into retrograde bedrock regions exceeding a threshold ocean warming of 0.5 degrees C above present, triggering Marine Ice Sheet Instability that commits 3-5 m of sea level rise on century timescales regardless of subsequent emissions reductions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.91, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1029/2005GL025127", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Schoof (2007) analytical proof that grounding line on retrograde bed is unstable; provides the theoretical basis for MISI with boundary flux scaling.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature14463", "note": "Joughin et al. (2014) satellite observations showing Thwaites glacier already in unstable retreat; consistent with MISI threshold having been crossed.\n", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-marine-ice-sheet-instability-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-market-crash-turbulent-transition", "title": "Financial market crashes are preceded by a measurable shift in the multifractal spectrum toward turbulent-intermittency signatures", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1088/1469-7688/1/2/306", "type": "supporting", "note": "Bacry et al. (2001) MRW — multifractal spectrum characterises equity returns" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.73.845", "type": "supporting", "note": "Ghashghaie et al. (1996) — FX market cascade statistics match turbulence" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.physa.2003.09.053", "type": "supporting", "note": "Calvet & Fisher (2004) — multifractal volatility forecasting" }, { "doi": "10.1007/BF00538711", "type": "supporting", "note": "Kolmogorov (1941) — cascade intermittency in fully developed turbulence" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-market-crash-turbulent-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-markov-gating-graph-consistency-with-kramers-scaling-under-voltage-clamp-protocols", "title": "Global voltage-clamp datasets will admit hidden Markov graphs whose transition rates obey Kramers-like exponential voltage dependence after marginalizing hidden fast modes — falsified if datasets systematically require non-Kramers fractional dynamics across labs once instrumentation artifacts removed.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.52, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.62.251", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.48, "note": "Reaction-rate theory reference regime" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-markov-gating-graph-consistency-with-kramers-scaling-under-voltage-clamp-protocols.yaml" }, { "id": "h-markov-jump-therapy-policies-reduce-relapse-prone-cell-state-occupancy", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-markov-jump-processes-x-cell-state-switching-therapy-design` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Adjoint/state-transition methodology as a transferable calibration scaffold.", "doi": "10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02489.x" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-markov-jump-therapy-policies-reduce-relapse-prone-cell-state-occupancy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-martingale-ecological-pricing", "title": "Ecosystem services in an informationally efficient natural capital market would follow martingale price processes; observed non-martingale behaviour (systematic underpricing) quantifies the information deficit — the gap between the market's public channel and the full ecological information channel capacity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/2325486", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Fama (1970) — EMH as martingale property; applies to any informationally efficient price process" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Costanza et al. (1997) Nature — ecosystem services valued at ~$33T/yr; current markets capture <1% of true value, indicating massive information deficit" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Dasgupta (2021) The Economics of Biodiversity (HM Treasury review) — natural capital markets fail due to information asymmetry, not preference" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cover & Thomas (2006) — channel capacity sets maximum extractable information; Kelly criterion in ecological context" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-martingale-ecological-pricing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-masked-autoencoder-pretraining-improves-cryo-em-low-snr-reconstruction", "title": "Masked-autoencoder pretraining improves low-SNR cryo-EM reconstruction fidelity while preserving structural plausibility checks.", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2111.06377", "note": "MAE learns transferable reconstruction representations from masking tasks.", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-masked-autoencoder-pretraining-improves-cryo-em-low-snr-reconstruction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-maxent-invasive-species-prediction", "title": "MaxEnt species distribution models trained on pre-invasion occurrence data can predict the realised invasion range of established invasive species with better accuracy than the native range alone, because the MaxEnt distribution encodes the fundamental niche without dispersal constraints present in the native range.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00567.x", "note": "Broennimann et al. (2007) and subsequent analyses show that invasive species often occupy similar climatic niches in their introduced range as in their native range — supporting the niche conservatism assumption underlying MaxEnt- based invasion predictions.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00792.x", "note": "Peterson et al. (2011) invasive species distributional ecology: transferred MaxEnt models perform better for species with conserved niches; prediction accuracy varies by taxon and invasion age.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Many invasive species have undergone niche shifts in their introduced range (rapid evolution, phenotypic plasticity, community release from natural enemies) — violating the niche conservatism assumption and causing MaxEnt to systematically underpredict invasion range in these cases.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-maxent-invasive-species-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-maxent-nonequilibrium-statistical-mechanics", "title": "Maximum caliber (MaxCal) — the path-entropy generalization of Jaynes's MaxEnt — is the correct variational principle for non-equilibrium steady states, and recovers fluctuation theorems as its extremal conditions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Presse et al. (2013) Principles of maximum entropy and maximum caliber in statistical physics. Rev Mod Phys 85:1115 — systematic derivation of MaxCal framework and recovery of master equation dynamics from path entropy maximization.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Crooks (1999) Entropy production fluctuation theorem and the nonequilibrium work relation for free energy differences. Phys Rev E 60:2721 — fluctuation theorems as constraints in the path-entropy variational problem.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Jaynes (1957) MaxEnt as equilibrium limit — MaxCal should reduce to MaxEnt for time-homogeneous systems in the limit of zero driving.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-maxent-nonequilibrium-statistical-mechanics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-maxmin-eu-ambiguity-aversion-amygdala", "title": "Amygdala activity during ambiguous decision-making scales with the spread of the mental set C of possible priors rather than with mean expected value uncertainty, implementing the minimax regret computation of Gilboa-Schmeidler maxmin expected utility\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-maxmin-eu-ambiguity-aversion-amygdala.yaml" }, { "id": "h-maxwell-wave-channel-capacity-limit", "title": "The physical degrees of freedom of a Maxwell wave field in a finite volume set a hard electromagnetic Shannon capacity limit that cannot be exceeded by any modulation scheme, antenna geometry, or signal processing algorithm.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bucci & Franceschetti (1989) showed that the number of degrees of freedom of a bandlimited electromagnetic field radiated from a finite aperture is finite and proportional to aperture area times frequency bandwidth — an electromagnetic sampling theorem analogous to Nyquist.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pizzo et al. (2022) derived the spatial degrees of freedom of massive MIMO channels from Maxwell's equations, showing a fundamental limit to spatial multiplexing gain set by aperture size and wavelength.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Proakis & Salehi (2008) Digital Communications: Shannon capacity derivation assumes AWGN — non-Gaussian noise or nonlinear Maxwell propagation requires generalized capacity analysis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-maxwell-wave-channel-capacity-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-may-stability-real-ecosystem-applicability", "title": "May's random matrix stability criterion σ√(SC) < 1 applies to real ecosystems in a statistical sense: communities near the instability threshold show higher variance in abundance dynamics and higher extinction probability, detectable as elevated eigenvalue spectral radius in empirical interaction matrices\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Allesina & Tang (2012) showed that replacing random interaction matrices with structured (predator-prey, competition, mutualism) matrices changes stability criteria quantitatively — partially validating May's framework for realistic communities." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Most empirical food webs (Dunne et al. 2002; Brose et al. 2006) show higher connectance than May's criterion allows, yet remain apparently stable — suggesting the real interaction matrix is structured in ways that differ fundamentally from random." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Empirical analysis of 116 plant-animal mutualistic networks (Rohr et al. 2014, Nature) found eigenvalue spectra consistent with structured RMT predictions after accounting for network architecture." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-may-stability-real-ecosystem-applicability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mca-summation-theorem-distributed-cancer-target", "title": "In cancer metabolic networks, the summation theorem of MCA (ΣCⁱⱼ = 1) implies that no single enzyme controls the full glycolytic flux; therefore, combination therapies targeting 3-4 low-FCC enzymes simultaneously will be more effective than single high-FCC target strategies, because high-FCC enzymes are compensated by network rewiring after single-agent treatment.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41598-017-09805-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "MCA of glycolysis in breast cancer cells: FCCs distributed across 8 enzymes; no enzyme has FCC > 0.25; HK2 (highest FCC ≈ 0.22) inhibition causes compensatory upregulation of glucose transporters within 24h — network rewiring\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrc3704", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Vander Heiden (2011) Nat Rev Cancer — metabolic network plasticity in cancer; multiple redundant enzymes share glycolytic flux; inhibiting one isoform consistently fails in clinical trials due to isoform switching — consistent with summation theorem prediction\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.celrep.2019.02.049", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Birsoy et al. (2015) — pooled in vivo genetic screen for essential metabolic genes; essentiality correlates with FCC in metabolic models; combination targeting of medium-FCC enzymes (FCC 0.1-0.2) shows synergistic lethality\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mca-summation-theorem-distributed-cancer-target.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mdl-scientific-theory-selection", "title": "Scientific theories selected by expert consensus across the history of physics have systematically shorter description lengths (lower Kolmogorov complexity) than their rejected competitors, validating Occam's razor as a measurable selection pressure in science independent of predictive accuracy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "The history of physics shows successive simplification: Ptolemy's epicycles (hundreds of parameters) → Kepler's laws (3 laws, ~6 parameters) → Newton's gravity (1 law, 2 parameters, predicts all planetary motion). This is compression in action: each successor theory has demonstrably shorter description length for the same observational data.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "In modern physics, the Standard Model Lagrangian encodes all known particle physics in approximately one printed page. Competing theories (SUSY, technicolour) require longer Lagrangians without confirmed additional predictions — consistent with MDL preferring the Standard Model until new data compels the longer description.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Predictive accuracy (likelihood) may drive theory selection independently of theory complexity. The Copernican vs. Ptolemaic system had roughly equal predictive accuracy with contemporary instrumentation; the Copernican selection may have been driven more by simplicity (shorter description) than accuracy — but this historical argument is not a controlled test.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mdl-scientific-theory-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mdr-asymptote-polymer-mechanism", "title": "The maximum drag reduction (MDR) asymptote in turbulent pipe flow with polymer additives represents a physical bound set by the elastic energy storage in stretched polymer chains damping near-wall vortex structures, and cannot be exceeded without fundamentally altering the turbulent cascade.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Virk (1975) MDR asymptote: f = 0.32/log₁₀(Re·√f) — universal upper bound empirically confirmed across polymer species and concentration", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Min et al. (2003) DNS of viscoelastic turbulence: polymer stretch energy quenches near-wall turbulence cycles — mechanism identified", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Xi & Graham (2012) maximum drag reduction state is an invariant solution of the Navier-Stokes equations modified by polymer elasticity", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mdr-asymptote-polymer-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mean-field-theory-x-neural-networks", "title": "Networks initialized at the mean-field edge-of-chaos critical point (chi=1) train successfully to arbitrary depth while networks initialized in the ordered (chi<1) or chaotic (chi>1) phases fail due to vanishing or exploding gradients, with the failure depth scaling as 1/|1-chi|.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1711.00165", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Lee et al. (2018) - NNGP kernel matches finite-width networks at criticality; Gaussian process predictions hold" }, { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1606.05340", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Poole et al. (2016) - expressivity and trainability peak at edge of chaos; deep networks require chi=1" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Schoenholz et al. (2017) - depth scales exponentially into ordered phase; linear into chaotic phase", "confidence": 0.83 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mean-field-theory-x-neural-networks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-measurement-problem-decoherence-einselection", "title": "Einselection (environment-induced superselection) solves the quantum measurement problem by selecting pointer states robust to environmental monitoring, making apparent wavefunction collapse a consequence of unitary evolution rather than an additional postulate — empirically testable via mesoscopic coherence beyond Caldeira-Leggett decoherence timescales.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.75.715", "note": "Zurek (2003) — decoherence and einselection review; pointer states robust to environmental monitoring; classicality emerges from quantum Darwinism.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nphys3756", "note": "Schlosshauer (2019) — decoherence review; Caldeira-Leggett model predictions confirmed for mesoscopic objects; no experimental evidence for collapse beyond decoherence.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1007/s10701-009-9354-5", "note": "Bassi & Ghirardi (2003) — collapse models (GRW, CSL) predict measurable deviations from unitary evolution for large masses; testable at intermediate scales between atom and Planck mass.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-measurement-problem-decoherence-einselection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-measurement-representational-theory-psychometrics", "title": "Psychometric measurements quantify genuine psychological attributes only when the attribute satisfies the conditions of the representational theory of measurement — specifically, double cancellation (a form of orderability and additivity) — which most current psychological constructs fail, making ordinal ranking the appropriate default rather than interval scaling.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0140525X15001466", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Borsboom et al. (2004) critique: most psychological scales are ordinal at best; interval scaling requires independence of ordering across multiple attributes (double cancellation), which is rarely empirically verified in psychometrics.\n" }, { "doi": "10.3102/1076998608328437", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Michell (2008) measurement theory: psychological attributes are genuine quantities only if they are continuous and additive in the representational sense; Likert-scale scoring violates this without empirical test.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s10699-018-9581-9", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Trendler (2019): Rasch models implicitly claim interval scaling; empirical tests of double cancellation in IRT show many items fail the necessary ordering conditions.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-measurement-representational-theory-psychometrics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mechanism-design-algorithmic-markets", "title": "VCG auction mechanisms remain approximately DSIC (regret within 5% of truthful bidding) for ML-based bidding agents trained with standard no-regret learning algorithms, even after 1000 repeated auction rounds, because the dominant strategy is a fixed point of the learning dynamics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.2307/1912601", "note": "Myerson (1981) — optimal auction design" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mechanism-design-algorithmic-markets.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mechanism-design-spectrum-auctions-efficiency", "title": "VCG mechanism design achieves 95%+ of theoretical optimal social welfare in spectrum auctions when bidders have complementary valuations", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Milgrom & Segal (2020) - FCC Incentive Auction design achieved near-optimal efficiency in TV spectrum reallocation" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Cramton, Shoham & Steinberg (2006) - combinatorial auctions handbook; VCG efficiency results" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mechanism-design-spectrum-auctions-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mechanosensing-x-force-transduction", "title": "Talin rod domain mechanosensing operates via a catch-bond mechanism where substrate stiffness above a threshold (5 kPa) stabilises the talin-vinculin interaction by extending the force application time, implementing stiffness-dependent bistable switching", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2006.06.044", "note": "Discher et al. — rigidity sensing in cells via focal adhesion mechanics", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Yao et al. (2016) — talin catch bond in mechanosensing; Nature Materials 15:1252", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mechanosensing-x-force-transduction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-meg-sparse-inverse-solution-epilepsy", "title": "Compressed sensing sparse inverse solutions for MEG source localization will outperform minimum-norm estimates for focal epileptic spike sources, achieving spatial localization accuracy within 5 mm of intracranial EEG ground truth in >80% of patients when the sparsity prior is calibrated to the number of simultaneously active sources estimated from ICA decomposition", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuroimage.2003.10.036", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Hämäläinen & Ilmoniemi (1994) - minimum norm inverse for MEG; baseline comparison" }, { "doi": "10.1093/biostatistics/kxm045", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Friedman et al. (2008) - graphical lasso; sparse precision estimation" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gramfort et al. (2012) - mixed norm estimate for MEG/EEG source localization" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-meg-sparse-inverse-solution-epilepsy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-membrane-defects-protein-clustering", "title": "Integral membrane proteins act as topological defects in the lipid bilayer liquid crystal order field, and defect-defect interactions mediated by Frank elastic energy drive protein clustering into lipid raft domains without requiring direct protein-protein binding.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1515/znc-1973-11-1209", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Helfrich elastic energy provides the theoretical framework for lipid-mediated interactions" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.175.4023.720", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Singer-Nicolson model describes proteins embedded in 2D fluid membrane" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrm2322", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Lipid raft review — raft organization as liquid-ordered phase" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-membrane-defects-protein-clustering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-membrane-tension-x-laplace-pressure", "title": "Cortical tension asymmetry during cell division follows the Young-Laplace equation quantitatively, and the cleavage furrow position can be predicted from cortical tension measurements to within 10% of cell diameter in rounded HeLa cells\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cub.2013.05.044", "note": "Salbreux et al. (2012) - Actin cortex mechanics and cellular morphogenesis", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Stewart et al. (2011) - Hydrostatic pressure and the actomyosin cortex drive mitotic cell rounding; Nature 469:226; doi:10.1038/nature09642", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-membrane-tension-x-laplace-pressure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-meme-channel-social-media-bias", "title": "Social media recommendation algorithms reduce the effective diversity of cultural transmission by introducing systematic, emotionally-biased channel noise that amplifies content below the channel capacity for factual information while exceeding the channel capacity for emotionally charged content — measurable as a reduction in the effective Shannon entropy of consumed information.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1620198114", "note": "Brady et al. (2017) PNAS: moral-emotional words increase Twitter spread by 20% per word — direct evidence of emotionally-biased algorithmic amplification corresponding to systematically non-white channel noise.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aap9559", "note": "Vosoughi et al. (2018) Science: false news spreads faster and more broadly than true news on Twitter — evidence that the algorithmic channel systematically amplifies low-fidelity (high-noise) content over high-fidelity content.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Social media also enables access to diverse information sources not available in pre-internet media monocultures. Whether the net effect on information diversity is positive or negative depends on individual usage patterns, filter bubble extent, and the counterfactual (what media people would consume without social media).\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-meme-channel-social-media-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-memory-augmented-seir-improves-forecast-turning-points", "title": "Memory-augmented SEIR models improve turning-point forecast timing compared with Markov SEIR baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Fisher (1922) estimation and information." }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Stuart (2010) Bayesian inverse-problem foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-memory-augmented-seir-improves-forecast-turning-points.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mems-high-cue-fungi-mineral-soc-stabilization-warming", "title": "Soils with fungal-dominated microbial communities (higher CUE ~0.5 vs. bacterial CUE ~0.3) accumulate ≥40% more mineral-associated organic carbon per unit C input under simulated +3°C warming than bacterial-dominated soils, confirming the MEMS framework prediction that high-CUE necromass production offsets warming-induced respiration increases.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kallenbach et al. (2016) Nat Commun 7:13630 — fungal-dominated soils accumulate more mineral-associated OM than bacterial-dominated soils at ambient temperature with matched C inputs; direct MEMS confirmation at 20°C", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Cotrufo et al. (2013) Nat Clim Chang — MEMS framework predicts high-CUE pathway to stable SOC; theoretical prediction that fungal biomass + necromass → organo-mineral association is stronger than bacterial pathway", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wieder et al. (2014) Nat Clim Chang 4:739 — microbial CUE in ESMs reduces projected warming feedback by 30–50% vs. static Q₁₀ models; fungal CUE treatment not separately evaluated", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Some warming experiments (+3°C for 5 years) show fungal:bacterial ratio decreases with warming (bacteria more heat-tolerant in some soils), which could reduce the MEMS high-CUE stabilization effect", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mems-high-cue-fungi-mineral-soc-stabilization-warming.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mercury-orbit-chaotic-diffusion-eccentricity", "title": "Mercury's orbital eccentricity undergoes chaotic diffusion with a Lyapunov time of 5 ± 1 Myr (consistent with Laskar 1989), and full GR correction reduces the probability of Mercury eccentricity exceeding 0.6 within 5 Gyr from ~1% to <0.3%.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/338237a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Laskar 1989 – first demonstration of Mercury Lyapunov time ~5 Myr from 200 Myr integration" }, { "doi": "10.1086/588006", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Laskar & Gastineau 2009 – 1% Mercury collision probability; GR corrections partially included" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mercury-orbit-chaotic-diffusion-eccentricity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-merger-tree-branching-matches-subhalo-statistics-scaling", "title": "Across standardized halo catalogs from identical N-body snapshots, merger-tree branching statistics rescale coherently with SUBFIND-identified subhalo mass functions within algorithm-dependent systematic bands — falsified if branch-rate variance across builders exceeds subhalo-count variance by >30% at matched mass thresholds on matched simulations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.28, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stu2039", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.47, "note": "Empirical dispersion of merger-tree outputs across algorithms on shared halo-finder inputs." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-merger-tree-branching-matches-subhalo-statistics-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metabolic-control-analysis-x-local-sensitivity", "title": "Sobol total-order indices computed on genome-scale kinetic models will rank enzymes differently than MCA flux control coefficients beyond ±30% perturbation bands — exposing domains where elasticity-local summaries mislead therapeutic targeting prioritization.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.53, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0076-6879(86)13086-1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "MCA matrix lineage baseline for contrast with global sensitivities" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metabolic-control-analysis-x-local-sensitivity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metabolic-exponent-network-dimension-prediction", "title": "The metabolic scaling exponent β = d/(d+1) where d is the fractal dimension of the resource-distribution network, measured from vascular/tracheal fractal analysis, will predict the empirical β across 10 major animal phyla better than the universal 3/4 constant (R² improvement >0.15).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.276.5309.122", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "West, Brown & Enquist 1997 – theoretical derivation; β = d/(d+1) for d = 3 gives 3/4" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.284.5420.1677", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Banavar 1999 – alternative derivation confirms network dimension determines exponent" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metabolic-exponent-network-dimension-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metabolic-flux-x-linear-programming", "title": "Metabolic flux objective functions shift from biomass maximization to ATP-per- carbon maximization under carbon limitation, and this shift is detectable by comparing 13C MFA flux distributions to FBA predictions under different C:N ratios, falsifying single-objective FBA models.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nbt.1614", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Orth et al. (2010) - FBA review; biomass maximization works well in exponential growth but less well in stationary phase" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Schuetz et al. (2012) - multi-objective optimality in E. coli metabolism across 25 environments; no single objective", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Edwards & Palsson (2000) - E. coli FBA growth predictions accurate across 6 carbon sources, supporting single biomass objective", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metabolic-flux-x-linear-programming.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metabolic-network-hub-essentiality-scaling", "title": "Metabolic hub degree follows a universal power law across all domains of life, and hub essentiality correlates with preferential attachment age measured by phylogenetic depth\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/35015116", "note": "Jeong et al. (2000) - Scale-free metabolic networks; hub degree correlates with gene essentiality", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Ravasz et al. (2002) - Hierarchical organization of modularity in metabolic networks; Science 297:1551", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metabolic-network-hub-essentiality-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metabolic-scaling-3-4-fractal-derivation", "title": "Organisms with non-space-filling transport networks (e.g., insect tracheal systems) should show metabolic scaling exponents significantly below 3/4, testable via comparative respirometry", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1095244", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "MTE predicts 3/4 only when transport is space-filling fractal; insects with tracheal diffusion may deviate" }, { "doi": "10.1242/jeb.01819", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Greenlee & Harrison (2004) measured tracheal system scaling in insects showing non-fractal geometry" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metabolic-scaling-3-4-fractal-derivation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metacognition-prefrontal-hierarchical", "title": "Metacognitive access to one's own cognitive states is implemented in anterior prefrontal cortex (area 10) as a hierarchically higher-order prediction: the brain predicts its own prediction errors, and metacognitive sensitivity (meta-d') is determined by the signal-to-noise ratio of this second-order prediction signal.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2011.05.001", "note": "Fleming & Dolan (2012) — metacognition and confidence; anterior PFC lesions impair metacognitive sensitivity without affecting first-order performance; suggests specific neural substrate.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.5068-12.2013", "note": "Maniscalco & Lau (2012) — meta-d' framework for measuring metacognitive efficiency; defines the computational quantity that neural mechanisms must implement.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metacognition-prefrontal-hierarchical.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metacommunity-intermediate-dispersal-diversity", "title": "Metacommunity diversity is maximised at an intermediate dispersal rate that balances local competitive exclusion against regional rescue effects, following a hump-shaped curve analogous to the intermediate disturbance hypothesis; below this optimum dispersal rate, local communities are dominated by stochastic drift, and above it by mass effects that homogenise species composition across patches.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1890/04-0728", "note": "Leibold et al. (2004) — metacommunity review; four paradigms; mass effects at high dispersal; species sorting at intermediate; patch dynamics at low dispersal.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1890/07-1127.1", "note": "Mouquet & Loreau (2003) — hump-shaped alpha diversity vs. dispersal rate in competition-colonisation model; experimental confirmation in microcosms.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00608.x", "note": "Holyoak, Leibold & Holt (2005) — dispersal-diversity relationships vary with local niche differentiation; hump only robust when species have distinct habitat affinities.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metacommunity-intermediate-dispersal-diversity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metadynamics-collective-variables-protein-allostery", "title": "Metadynamics simulations using graph-neural-network-derived collective variables will identify the allosteric communication pathways in therapeutic targets (kinases, GPCRs) inaccessible to conventional MD, enabling structure-based design of allosteric inhibitors with 100-fold selectivity improvements over orthosteric drugs.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.202427399", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Laio & Parrinello (2002) metadynamics enables sampling of rare conformational transitions inaccessible to standard MD" }, { "doi": "10.1002/jcc.540130812", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Kumar et al. (1992) WHAM — foundation for combining biased simulations into free energy profiles" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metadynamics-collective-variables-protein-allostery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metamaterial-sub-diffraction-limit", "title": "Negative-index metamaterials (NIMs) cannot achieve sub-diffraction imaging at optical frequencies in practical systems because evanescent wave amplification is overwhelmed by absorption losses (Im(ε) > 0.1 at visible frequencies) before the resolution exceeds λ/4, making the perfect lens hypothesis unachievable without fundamentally new material platforms.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pendry (2000) PRL perfect lens hypothesis: NIM with n=-1 amplifies evanescent waves, restoring sub-wavelength information", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Garcia & Nieto-Vesperinas (2002) absorption prevents evanescent wave amplification: resolution bound λ/[2π·Im(n)] in lossy NIM", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Blaikie & Melville (2005) experimental near-field: achieved λ/6 resolution with silver film at UV — but only for quasi-static regime, not true far-field imaging", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metamaterial-sub-diffraction-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metaphor-abstract-thought-embodied-simulation", "title": "Abstract thought is fundamentally grounded in sensorimotor metaphor: activating motor imagery of physical metaphor enactments (GRASPING an idea, HEAVY thoughts) facilítates abstract reasoning, and disrupting motor cortex via TMS during metaphor comprehension degrades understanding of novel but not literal abstract sentences.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0510411103", "note": "Hauk et al. (2004) — foot, leg, face action words activate somatotopic motor regions; leg word → leg motor cortex; supports embodied simulation of motor metaphors.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2010.01.010", "note": "Mahon & Caramazza (2008) — disembodied cognition is possible; motor cortex activation may be post-hoc simulation rather than constitutive of meaning.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metaphor-abstract-thought-embodied-simulation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metaphor-embodied-conceptual-grounding", "title": "Abstract thought is grounded in embodied sensorimotor metaphor — BOLD activation of primary sensorimotor cortex during abstract language processing provides evidence for conceptual metaphor theory over amodal symbol systems", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1218643", "note": "Lakoff & Johnson (1980) — conceptual metaphor theory foundational work", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037/0033-295X.115.4.803", "note": "Glenberg & Kaschak (2002) — action-based language comprehension", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2009.09.008", "note": "Mahon & Caramazza (2008) — challenges to embodied semantics", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metaphor-embodied-conceptual-grounding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metaphor-universality-embodied-grounding", "title": "Conceptual metaphors grounded in universal embodied experiences (UP=GOOD, WARM=FRIENDLY, BRIGHT=KNOWN) are cross-linguistically universal, while metaphors grounded in culturally specific experiences (TIME=MONEY, ARGUMENT=WAR) vary across languages, and this distinction is detectable in the correlational structure of translation equivalents across 100+ languages.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2009.09.008", "note": "Lakoff & Johnson (1980) — conceptual metaphor theory; structural metaphors organized by universal bodily experience; cultural variation is predicted but not empirically tested cross-linguistically.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1004844107", "note": "Regier et al. (2010) PNAS — universals and variation in color naming; method for separating universal from culturally-specific semantic categories applicable to metaphor research.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metaphor-universality-embodied-grounding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metaphor-universality-spatial-embodiment-constraint", "title": "Spatial-orientation conceptual metaphors (MORE IS UP, TIME IS SPACE, AFFECTION IS WARMTH) are universal across cultures because they arise from invariant sensorimotor contingencies, while event-structure metaphors are culturally variable", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0364-0213(99)80028-2", "note": "Lakoff & Johnson (1999) — Philosophy in the Flesh, embodied universal metaphors", "confidence": 0.67 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1027/1618-3169.57.5.333", "note": "Meier & Robinson (2004) — height and social power metaphor: cross-cultural", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1080/10489220590950382", "note": "Yu (2008) — cultural variation in conceptual metaphors (happiness UP varies)", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metaphor-universality-spatial-embodiment-constraint.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metapopulation-capacity-climate-refugia-network", "title": "Designing protected area networks to maximise metapopulation capacity λ_M, rather than total protected area, will extend time to extinction for fragmented species under climate change by 2-5× because λ_M directly determines regional persistence probability, while area alone ignores connectivity and patch configuration.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1046/j.1461-0248.2001.00210.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.87, "note": "Ovaskainen & Hanski (2001) Am Nat — metapopulation capacity λ_M (largest eigenvalue of landscape matrix) is the sole determinant of regional persistence; extinction threshold at λ_M = e/c; patch configuration (not just area) controls λ_M\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.biocon.2004.05.006", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.81, "note": "Moilanen & Hanski (2001) — Glanville fritillary butterfly conservation: λ_M-based reserve design outperforms area-based design by identifying bridge patches that disproportionately contribute to network-wide connectivity\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.77, "note": "Pacifici et al. (2020) — climate velocity vs. species dispersal capacity gap is the primary predictor of extinction risk; metapopulation capacity under climate shift not modelled; this hypothesis proposes the integration\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metapopulation-capacity-climate-refugia-network.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metapopulation-connectivity-predicts-spillover-r0", "title": "Landscape connectivity metrics derived from metapopulation incidence-function model parameters predict cross-species pathogen spillover risk (R₀_spillover) with accuracy comparable to individual-level contact network surveillance in fragmented tropical forest margins\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/227458a0", "note": "Levins (1969) — metapopulation model; colonization/extinction dynamics structurally identical to SIR patch model", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.tpb.2004.01.001", "note": "Hess (1996) — direct mapping of SIR to Levins metapopulation; disease in metapopulation models", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1098/rspb.2003.2343", "note": "Keeling & Rohani (2002) — spatial coupling in epidemiological systems", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metapopulation-connectivity-predicts-spillover-r0.yaml" }, { "id": "h-metasurface-flat-lens-diffraction-limited-visible", "title": "Silicon titanium dioxide (TiO₂) metasurface metalenses at visible wavelengths (532 nm) can achieve diffraction-limited focusing efficiency > 80% and Strehl ratio > 0.8 at numerical apertures > 0.9 using geometric phase (Pancharatnam-Berry) encoding, outperforming equivalent-aperture refractive lenses while reducing thickness by 3 orders of magnitude.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aam8100", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Devlin et al. (2017) Science 358:896 — TiO2 metalens at visible, NA=0.8, efficiency 86%" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.3966", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Pendry (2000) — theoretical foundation for metamaterial lensing" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-metasurface-flat-lens-diffraction-limited-visible.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mete-non-equilibrium-deviations", "title": "Systematic deviations of empirical species abundance distributions from METE predictions are quantitatively predicted by non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics, with the magnitude of deviation decaying as a power law in time since disturbance", "status": "draft", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01201.x", "note": "Harte et al. (2008) - METE equilibrium predictions work in stable forests; departures noted in disturbed sites" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Boltzmann H-theorem analogy: entropy-maximizing approach to equilibrium in statistical mechanics suggests ecological relaxation should have a similar structure\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Alternative interpretation: METE failures reflect wrong choice of state variables rather than non-equilibrium dynamics; no confirmed power-law relaxation signal in empirical chronosequence studies\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mete-non-equilibrium-deviations.yaml" }, { "id": "h-methane-clathrate-destabilization-threshold", "title": "Seafloor methane clathrate destabilisation on continental margins requires bottom water warming >3°C above preindustrial levels before producing climatically significant atmospheric methane flux; current trajectories remain below this threshold until at least 2150 for the Arctic shelf.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1029/2011JC007069", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.63, "note": "Ruppel & Kessler (2017) review: seafloor methane from Arctic shelf primarily consumed by microbial oxidation before reaching atmosphere; net atmospheric contribution currently small (<10 Tg CH4/yr).\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/ngeo854", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Reagan & Moridis (2009) model East Siberian Arctic Shelf; full destabilisation requires sustained bottom water warming of 2-3°C over decades — slow enough to limit atmospheric pulse.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1231798", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Shakhova et al. (2013) report elevated CH4 over ESAS — but measurements remain disputed; atmospheric CH4 inventory does not yet show Arctic shelf clathrate signal above fossil fuel noise.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-methane-clathrate-destabilization-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microbial-cue-warming-feedback-carbon-cycle", "title": "A 1 degree C increase in mean soil temperature reduces global mean microbial carbon use efficiency by 2-4 percentage points, releasing an additional 30-50 Pg C from soils by 2100 relative to current Earth System Model projections that assume temperature-independent CUE.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.89, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41558-018-0271-9", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Wieder et al. (2018) show models incorporating microbial CUE predict 2-3x larger soil carbon losses under warming than models without; supports the importance of CUE-temperature feedbacks for climate projections.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01538.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Manzoni et al. (2012) meta-analysis of CUE across ecosystems shows systematic decrease with temperature; mean dCUE/dT = -0.016 per degree C, consistent with the hypothesis range of 2-4 percentage points per degree C.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microbial-cue-warming-feedback-carbon-cycle.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microbial-fuel-cell-anodic-electron-transfer", "title": "Overexpressing the outer-membrane cytochrome MtrCAB complex in Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 combined with a three-dimensional porous graphene foam anode will increase maximum current density by at least 5-fold relative to flat-carbon anodes by reducing electron-transfer resistance below 10 ohm-cm^2", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1139358", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lovley (2006) — extracellular electron transfer via nanowires supports plausibility of enhanced EET through overexpression" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrmicro2397", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Lovley (2011) — MtrCAB complex identified as rate-limiting step in Shewanella EET" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kracke et al. (2015) — microbial electron transport and energy conservation; MtrCAB overexpression as synthetic biology target" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microbial-fuel-cell-anodic-electron-transfer.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microbial-iron-reduction-sediment-carbon-preservation", "title": "Microbial iron reduction rates in marine sediments are the primary control on organic carbon preservation efficiency, with faster Fe(III) reduction correlating with greater carbon mineralization and lower carbon burial efficiency across continental margin settings\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microbial-iron-reduction-sediment-carbon-preservation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microbiome-diversity-host-resilience", "title": "Shannon diversity of the gut microbiome is a causal determinant of host resilience to dietary perturbation, antibiotic exposure, and enteric pathogen challenge — such that microbiomes with H > 3 bits recover baseline composition within 14 days of perturbation while microbiomes with H < 2 bits undergo permanent compositional shift, analogous to ecological alternative stable states.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature06244", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Turnbaugh et al. (2007) — reduced microbiome diversity correlates with obesity phenotype transfer in germ-free mice" }, { "doi": "10.1056/NEJMoa1205037", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "van Nood et al. (2013) — FMT reconstitutes diversity and cures recurrent C. difficile in >90%" }, { "doi": "10.1152/physrev.00018.2018", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Cryan et al. (2019) — microbiome-gut-brain axis and resilience" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microbiome-diversity-host-resilience.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microbiome-functional-redundancy-antibiotic-resilience", "title": "Gut microbiome communities with butyrate-pathway functional redundancy index (FRI > 0.6, defined as the fraction of butyrate production contributed by the top-3 producing taxa out of all butyrate producers) will recover to pre-antibiotic composition within 30 days after a 7-day broad-spectrum antibiotic course in >80% of healthy adults.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/238413a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "May (1972) – theoretical basis for functional redundancy as stability mechanism" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1406-7", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Martiny – functional redundancy in microbiomes and resilience to perturbation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microbiome-functional-redundancy-antibiotic-resilience.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microglial-synaptic-pruning-depression", "title": "Microglia-mediated excess synaptic pruning in the prefrontal cortex is a causal mechanism in treatment-resistant depression that is partially reversible by anti-inflammatory intervention", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "PET imaging shows elevated microglial activation in treatment-resistant depression" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.3, "url": "https://www.cell.com/neuron/fulltext/S0896-6273(16)30759-9", "note": "Complement-mediated synapse elimination by microglia (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.25, "note": "Anti-inflammatory trial results in depression have been inconsistent across studies" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microglial-synaptic-pruning-depression.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microplastic-nanofiltration-membrane-fouling-tradeoff", "title": "Nanofiltration and tight ultrafiltration membranes (molecular weight cut-off <1 kDa) can remove >99.9% of microplastics and nanoplastics from water but face a fundamental permeability-selectivity trade-off: achieving nanoplastic removal at low energy penalty requires antifouling surface chemistry that reduces pore blockage from the plastic fragments themselves.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.watres.2020.116449", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Enfrin et al. (2021) systematic review: reverse osmosis removes >99.9% of microplastics, NF membranes ~95-99%; ultrafiltration removes microplastics (>1 μm) but passes nanoplastics (<1 μm) — size-dependent removal efficiency confirmed.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1021/acsnano.0c05528", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Wang et al. (2021): nanoplastic membrane fouling measured across PVDF, polyamide TFC, and zwitterionic-coated membranes; zwitterionic surfaces reduce nanoplastic fouling 60-70% compared to pristine membranes by reducing hydrophobic adsorption.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131726", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Leslie et al. (2022) nanoplastic detection in drinking water: particles <1 μm present at 2-15 particles/L from municipal treatment plants using conventional coagulation-sedimentation — confirms current treatment gap.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microplastic-nanofiltration-membrane-fouling-tradeoff.yaml" }, { "id": "h-microseismic-b-value-universal-failure-precursor", "title": "A b-value drop below 1.1 (from baseline ~1.5) is a universal precursor of imminent failure in both laboratory AE experiments and field microseismic monitoring, with a median lead time of 10-100 times the inter-event interval at the observation scale, providing a scalable warning criterion from centimetre laboratory specimens to kilometre-scale rock masses.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1785/0120150188", "note": "Lockner (1993) - AE b-value changes preceding rock failure in triaxial tests", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1029/2008JB006171", "note": "Kwiatek et al. (2010) - microseismic b-value analysis in deep mine", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-microseismic-b-value-universal-failure-precursor.yaml" }, { "id": "h-milankovitch-nonlinear-resonance-100kyr", "title": "The dominant 100 kyr glacial cycle arises from nonlinear resonance between the 100 kyr eccentricity forcing and the ice-sheet's internal ~100 kyr relaxation oscillation, not from direct eccentricity-driven insolation — a subharmonic locking mechanism analogous to driven nonlinear oscillators", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.194.4270.1121", "type": "supporting", "note": "Hays et al. (1976) — 100 kyr power confirmed in delta-O18 record; eccentricity correlation established" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature10385", "type": "related", "note": "Laskar et al. (2011) — chaotic orbital evolution; eccentricity forcing computed precisely" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1193012", "note": "Tziperman et al. (2006) — glacial terminations driven by skipping orbital cycles: resonance model", "type": "supporting" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1117601109", "type": "related", "note": "Feulner (2012) — stellar evolution and faint young Sun; background on solar forcing timescales" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-milankovitch-nonlinear-resonance-100kyr.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mind-wandering-episodic-simulation", "title": "Mind wandering serves an episodic future simulation function: spontaneous thought preferentially generates prospective (future-oriented) narrative scenarios rather than past retrieval, and individuals with richer and more specific future simulations during mind wandering show better prospective memory and goal-directed behavior.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0610561104", "note": "Szpunar et al. (2007) PNAS — default mode network activated by both past memory retrieval and future episodic simulation; functional overlap suggests shared mechanism used by mind wandering.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1192439", "note": "Smallwood & Schooler (2006) — experience sampling methodology showing mind wandering frequency and content; future-oriented content predominates in unconstrained thought sampling.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mind-wandering-episodic-simulation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mineral-nucleation-prenucleation-clusters", "title": "Classical nucleation theory fails for geological mineral formation because prenucleation clusters (stable ion assemblages below the critical nucleus size) provide a two-step nucleation pathway that lowers the free energy barrier by 50–80%, explaining the observed orders-of-magnitude discrepancy between predicted and observed induction times.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gebauer et al. (2008) Science: prenucleation CaCO₃ clusters detected by AUC before crystal nucleation — two-step pathway with 60% lower barrier", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pouget et al. (2009) Nature Materials: in situ TEM shows amorphous CaCO₃ precursor transforms to calcite — non-classical pathway confirmed", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Karthika et al. (2016) review: CNT underpredicts nucleation rate by 10⁵–10¹⁰× in silicate, phosphate, and sulfate systems", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mineral-nucleation-prenucleation-clusters.yaml" }, { "id": "h-minimax-regret-pandemic-intervention", "title": "Minimax regret optimal stopping rules for epidemic intervention are more robust than expected-utility-maximizing rules when R0 uncertainty exceeds 20%, testable by retrospective analysis of COVID-19 intervention timing across 50 countries", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsif.2020.0435", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Alvarez et al. (2020) - optimal lockdown derived under known parameters; uncertainty not addressed" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2014347118", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Berger et al. (2020) - Bayesian testing decisions under uncertainty; related framework" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-minimax-regret-pandemic-intervention.yaml" }, { "id": "h-minimum-phase-plants-attain-tighter-bode-bounds", "title": "For a fixed unstable plant pole set, minimum-phase designs achieve strictly better achievable sensitivity templates than any non-minimum-phase embedding with identical loop gain budget — standard theorem package but worth restating as a falsifiable design audit checklist for cyber-physical retrofits.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TAC.1978.1101643", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Classic LQG robustness limitations motivating waterbed language." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "MIMO extensions are textbook material but must be checked case-by-case in applications." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-minimum-phase-plants-attain-tighter-bode-bounds.yaml" }, { "id": "h-minority-game-hft-phase-transition", "title": "High-frequency trading (HFT) proliferation shifted equity markets across the minority game phase transition from the inefficient (α < α_c) to efficient (α > α_c) regime, measurable as a decrease in autocorrelation of order flow and reduction in bid-ask spread predictability after 2005 HFT adoption.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hendershott et al. (2011) HFT introduction on NYSE reduces quoted spreads, adverse selection, and order flow autocorrelation — consistent with efficiency increase", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Brogaard et al. (2014) HFT improves price efficiency (reduces variance ratio deviations from 1) across 26 stocks", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Kirilenko et al. (2017) Flash Crash demonstrates HFT can produce liquidity withdrawal → market instability at extreme market stress — inconsistent with pure efficiency gain", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-minority-game-hft-phase-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-minority-game-quasispecies-duality", "title": "The minority game disordered-to-ordered transition and the quasispecies error threshold are dual descriptions of the same information-theoretic phase transition, with shared critical exponents", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.65.026126", "note": "Manrubia & Zanette (2002) PRE - explicit mapping of MG to quasispecies shows shared critical structure" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0378-4371(97)00419-6", "note": "Challet & Zhang (1997) - MG phase transition at alpha_c analogous to error threshold" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Both systems: ordered phase = information-poor (single dominant type); disordered phase = information-rich distribution; transition = information-theoretic capacity limit" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-minority-game-quasispecies-duality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-minority-game-x-market-microstructure", "title": "Order flow autocorrelation C(τ) = ⟨sign(v_t) sign(v_{t+τ})⟩ transitions from positive (exploitable, predictable order flow) to near-zero (efficient) as algorithmic trader fraction increases past a threshold of ~34% of total volume, matching the minority game α_c prediction", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0378-4371(97)00419-6", "note": "Challet & Zhang — minority game phase transition at α_c with volatility minimum", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lillo & Farmer (2004) — long memory in order flow; Quantitative Finance 4:7", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-minority-game-x-market-microstructure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mirror-neuron-dance-therapy", "title": "Dance/movement therapy achieves clinical benefits in depression and Parkinson's disease through mirror-system-mediated motor resonance — specifically, the therapeutic effect is proportional to the degree of kinematic mirroring between therapist and patient, and is abolished when kinematic matching is prevented.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.clineuro.2015.06.011", "note": "Hackney et al. (2015) RCT: tango dance therapy improves Parkinson's motor function more than walking; the partnered, synchronized nature of tango is hypothesized to activate mirror system circuits promoting motor learning.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3390/brainsci9040100", "note": "Koch et al. (2019) meta-analysis: dance/movement therapy shows significant effects on depression (SMD 0.66) — effect mediated by social bonding, emotion regulation, and body image, all candidate mirror-system-adjacent mechanisms.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The therapeutic effects of dance therapy may be largely attributable to social engagement, aerobic exercise, and attention/mindfulness components rather than mirror neuron-specific kinematic mirroring. No study has directly compared synchronized vs. desynchronized movement conditions while controlling for social contact and exercise intensity.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mirror-neuron-dance-therapy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-misinformation-emotional-valence-persistence", "title": "Misinformation is more persistent than corrections because emotional arousal (fear, outrage, disgust) during initial exposure creates stronger memory consolidation and motivated reasoning to reject corrections — the asymmetry is greatest when corrections threaten partisan identity and cannot be eliminated by accuracy framing alone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aap9559", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Vosoughi et al. (2018) Science study of Twitter misinformation: false news is 70% more likely to be retweeted than true; emotional novelty (fear, disgust) mediates spreading rate — consistent with emotional encoding hypothesis.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0193088", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Chan et al. (2017) meta-analysis of 52 misinformation correction studies: corrections reduce belief in misinformation by 0.25-0.35 SD on average, but effect size smaller when information is politically congruent.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1806840116", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Pennycook & Rand (2019) accuracy nudge: prompting analytical thinking reduces sharing of misinformation; suggests dual-process mechanism (fast emotional → slow analytical) is corrigible.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-misinformation-emotional-valence-persistence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mismatch-negativity-bayesian-precision-prediction-error", "title": "The amplitude of the cortical mismatch negativity (MMN) response scales linearly with the precision-weighted prediction error (σ⁻² × ΔP) predicted by the Rao-Ballard model, where σ² is the stimulus variability in the context window and ΔP is the prior-minus-likelihood deviation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nn.2387", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Rao & Ballard – predictive coding model predicts MMN-like responses; precision weighting" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2015.09.030", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Keller & Mrsic-Flogel – experimental evidence for predictive coding in mouse V1" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mismatch-negativity-bayesian-precision-prediction-error.yaml" }, { "id": "h-missingness-augmented-lstm-models-improve-icu-decompensation-horizon-accuracy", "title": "Explicit missingness encoding in LSTM models improves ICU decompensation horizon accuracy versus simple imputation baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "LSTM supports long-range dependency modeling.", "doi": "10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-missingness-augmented-lstm-models-improve-icu-decompensation-horizon-accuracy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mitochondrial-pmf-stochastic-efficiency", "title": "ATP synthase operates near its stochastic thermodynamic efficiency limit: fluctuation theorems predict that the distribution of single-cycle efficiencies must satisfy eta * P(eta) / P(-eta) = exp(eta * Delta_S / k_B), and experimental single-molecule data will confirm that mean efficiency is within 15% of the Delta_p-set theoretical maximum under physiological conditions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature06115", "note": "Toyabe et al. (2010) - experimental test of a fluctuation theorem on a molecular motor", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0509642102", "note": "Yasuda et al. (2001) - resolution of distinct rotational substeps by submillisecond kinetic analysis of F1-ATPase", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mitochondrial-pmf-stochastic-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mixed-fem-for-hodge-laplace-matches-dec-upwind-schemes", "title": "On a standardized linear elasticity mixed-FEM benchmark, a DEC-based discretization with a commuting projection will match RT/BDFMS accuracy within 5% on energy norm for a sequence of refined meshes.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1090/S0025-5718-10-02339-2", "note": "FEEC framework unifying mixed methods and geometric structure" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1016/j.cma.2006.12.009", "note": "DEC / discrete forms literature adjacent to mixed FEM practice" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mixed-fem-for-hodge-laplace-matches-dec-upwind-schemes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mixing-parameter-matches-posterior-sparsity-stability-curves", "title": "In correlated-design simulations, elastic-net settings expressed as Laplace-Gaussian prior-scale ratios will produce smoother sparsity-stability curves than raw l1_ratio grids; falsified if bootstrap selection instability is unchanged across equivalent predictive error bands.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.35, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00503.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Zou and Hastie (2005) elastic net." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mixing-parameter-matches-posterior-sparsity-stability-curves.yaml" }, { "id": "h-miyake-event-wiggle-matching-year-precision", "title": "Wiggle-matching 14C measurements from tree ring sequences including solar particle events (Miyake events at 774 CE and 993 CE) provides calendar year precision for Hallstatt plateau samples when 3+ samples span the event", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature11549", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Miyake et al. (2012) Nature - 774 CE solar particle event in 14C tree ring record" }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0033822200033865", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "IntCal20 - Miyake events incorporated as 1-year age anchors in calibration curve" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-miyake-event-wiggle-matching-year-precision.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ml-accelerated-corrosion-inhibitor-discovery", "title": "Machine learning models trained on DFT-computed adsorption energies and molecular descriptors can predict organic corrosion inhibitor efficiency with sufficient accuracy to reduce experimental screening effort by an order of magnitude", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Srivastava et al. (2021) — Machine learning for corrosion inhibitor prediction: HOMO-LUMO gap as key descriptor, J Mol Liq", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Guo et al. (2020) — DFT-ML hybrid prediction of triazole inhibitor efficiency on copper, Corros Sci 163:108303", "confidence": 0.71 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Koch et al. (2016) — Global corrosion costs; even 5% reduction from ML screening ≈ $125B/year value", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ml-accelerated-corrosion-inhibitor-discovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ml-directed-evolution-navigates-epistatic-fitness-landscape", "title": "Machine learning models trained on deep mutational scanning (DMS) data can predict the fitness of multi-mutation combinations with accuracy sufficient to identify the global fitness maximum in a protein landscape with up to 5 simultaneous mutations, replacing 3-5 rounds of directed evolution with a single round of computational screening.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.91, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.abo5667", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Protein Gym consortium (Notin et al. 2022) Science — benchmark of 62 protein fitness predictors on 87 DMS datasets; ESM-1v, EVmutation, and Tranception achieve Spearman ρ ≈ 0.6 for single mutants; accuracy drops for double mutants" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41592-022-01715-z", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Dauparas et al. (2022) Nat Methods — ProteinMPNN designs sequences for target backbone structures; 52% of designed sequences fold correctly at first attempt; combined with AlphaFold2 for validation" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2118981119", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Gruber et al. (2022) PNAS — active learning strategy with GP fitness model identifies Pareto-optimal enzyme variants (activity + stability) using 4× fewer experimental measurements than random search" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Epistatically complex landscapes challenge ML generalization: Pokusaeva et al. (2019) eLife show that for the GB1 protein, Spearman ρ drops from 0.75 (single mutants) to 0.35 (double mutants) to 0.15 (triple mutants) for sequence-based models" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ml-directed-evolution-navigates-epistatic-fitness-landscape.yaml" }, { "id": "h-modern-hopfield-transformer-attention-equivalence", "title": "The mathematical equivalence between modern Hopfield network updates and scaled dot-product attention implies that transformer attention heads implement content-addressable associative memory retrieval, and that the number of \"memorized facts\" in a transformer's attention layers scales exponentially with the key/query dimension d — testable via probing and capacity saturation experiments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.79.8.2554", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Hopfield (1982) PNAS 79:2554 — original attractor network" }, { "note": "Ramsauer et al. (2020) Hopfield Networks Is All You Need. ICLR 2021 — attention equivalence proof", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.92 }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.32.1007", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Amit et al. (1985) Phys Rev A 32:1007 — AGS capacity theorem" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-modern-hopfield-transformer-attention-equivalence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-modular-architecture-robustness-evolvability", "title": "Biological gene regulatory networks with higher modularity index (ratio of within-module to between-module interaction strength) exhibit both higher mutational robustness (canalization) and higher evolvability (rate of adaptive phenotypic change per generation), demonstrating that modularity resolves — rather than trades off — the robustness-evolvability dilemma.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.95.15.8420", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Kirschner & Gerhart (1998) — theoretical framework for evolvability via modularity" }, { "doi": "10.1038/150563a0", "type": "related", "note": "Waddington (1942) — canalization concept" }, { "doi": "10.1038/38593", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Rutherford & Lindquist (1998) — Hsp90 buffers cryptic variation, demonstrating canalization-evolvability linkage" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-modular-architecture-robustness-evolvability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mof-sorbent-approaches-dac-thermodynamic-limit", "title": "Metal-organic framework (MOF) sorbents with CO₂ binding enthalpy in the 30-50 kJ/mol range and fast diffusion kinetics can achieve DAC energy consumption below 100 kJ/mol CO₂ — within 5× of the thermodynamic minimum — using low-grade heat (60-80°C) for regeneration.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Flaig et al. (2020) J Am Chem Soc: amine-appended Mg-MOF-74 achieves CO₂ uptake > 3 mmol/g at 400 ppm, 40°C with binding enthalpy ~65 kJ/mol — higher capacity than physisorptive MOFs while allowing 100°C regeneration.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kim et al. (2022) ACS Energy Lett: MOF-based DAC pilot at 1 kg/day scale with energy consumption ~200 kJ/mol — demonstrating that MOF sorbents are approaching but have not yet reached the sub-100 kJ/mol target.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "MOF stability in humid air (water vapor 1-4% in ambient) is a known challenge: many high-capacity MOFs degrade within 10-100 adsorption cycles under ambient conditions, raising lifecycle energy cost above lab-measured values.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mof-sorbent-approaches-dac-thermodynamic-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-molecular-motor-efficiency-fluctuation-theorem", "title": "Kinesin thermodynamic efficiency is determined by the ratio of the forward ATP hydrolysis rate to the Crooks-mandated reverse rate, and motors operating far from stall maximise power output rather than efficiency due to the fluctuation theorem constraint", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.78.2690", "note": "Jarzynski (1997) — nonequilibrium equality ⟨e^{-W/kT}⟩ = e^{-ΔF/kT} constrains motor work fluctuations", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/348348a0", "note": "Block et al. (1990) — single-kinesin force-velocity curves show efficiency peaks at intermediate loads", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bustamante et al. (2005) — The nonequilibrium thermodynamics of small systems, Physics Today 58:43", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-molecular-motor-efficiency-fluctuation-theorem.yaml" }, { "id": "h-molecular-motor-near-equilibrium-operation", "title": "Biological molecular motors operating at near-stall force achieve efficiency approaching the isothermal Carnot limit (ΔG_chemical → W_mechanical) because the free energy landscape is designed for reversible power strokes, and deviation from near-equilibrium operation at high velocity is the primary source of efficiency loss in myosin and kinesin.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nchembio0705-130", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Bustamante et al. — review of motor protein thermodynamics showing near-stall efficiency" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.78.2690", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Jarzynski equality — theoretical basis for near-equilibrium efficiency measurement" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nphys1821", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Toyabe et al. — Maxwell's demon experiment validates stochastic thermodynamics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-molecular-motor-near-equilibrium-operation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-molecular-spectroscopy-x-matrix-diagonalization", "title": "Anharmonic corrections up to fourth order in curvilinear coordinates will reduce out-of-sample IR peak prediction error by a fixed margin relative to harmonic-only diagonalization for a benchmark set of small hydrogen-bonded clusters — with error correlated to condition number of the mass-weighted Hessian.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.45, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1063/1.1740823", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Harmonic normal-mode matrix tradition baseline" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-molecular-spectroscopy-x-matrix-diagonalization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-monsoon-aerosol-bifurcation-tipping-point", "title": "The South Asian summer monsoon has a fold bifurcation structure in the aerosol-SST parameter space such that sustained anthropogenic aerosol loading could shift the system to a permanently weakened stable state below a critical threshold, with hysteresis preventing recovery even after emission reductions", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1614580114", "note": "Levermann et al. (2009) — Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions; GRL", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/s00382-014-2337-0", "note": "Zickfeld et al. (2005) — Is the Indian Ocean monsoon stable against global change? Geophys Res Lett", "confidence": 0.63 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.abn7950", "note": "Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) — Tipping elements in the Earth system; Science 377", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-monsoon-aerosol-bifurcation-tipping-point.yaml" }, { "id": "h-monsoon-aerosol-bifurcation-tipping", "title": "The South Asian summer monsoon has a saddle-node bifurcation point controlled by the land-ocean temperature gradient; sustained aerosol cooling of South Asia reduces this gradient, and if aerosol optical depth exceeds a critical threshold AOD_c~0.5 over northern India, the monsoon shifts to a permanently weakened state that cannot recover even after aerosol removal.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1238222", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Levermann et al. (2013) - tipping elements in Earth climate: monsoon included as potential tipping element" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nclimate2014", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Zickfeld et al. (2005) - dynamical systems analysis of monsoon: bifurcation point exists in conceptual model" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Lenton et al. (2008) - tipping elements in Earth system; monsoon as abrupt transition candidate" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-monsoon-aerosol-bifurcation-tipping.yaml" }, { "id": "h-morphogenesis-x-mechanical-instability", "title": "Primary sulcus positions are mechanically determined by spatial variations in cortex stiffness (set by molecular gradients), with secondary and tertiary folds arising from purely mechanical instabilities of the initial folded geometry — making morphogenesis a two-stage mechanical-molecular process", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nphys3632", "note": "Tallinen et al. — buckling model reproduces human gyrification patterns from growth alone", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Zilles et al. (2013) — development of cortical folding and its relation to evolution; Brain Struct Funct", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-morphogenesis-x-mechanical-instability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-morse-homology-x-conley-index-isolated-invariants", "title": "Certified cubical homology pipelines enclosing experimental Poincaré maps from stirred fluid experiments will recover Conley-index signatures stable under measurement noise below validated Lipschitz envelopes — enabling reproducible topology tags across laboratories sharing enclosure scripts.\n", "status": "draft", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.4, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0167-2789(98)00141-X", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Computational homology algorithms baseline context for experimental pipelines" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-morse-homology-x-conley-index-isolated-invariants.yaml" }, { "id": "h-morse-theory-x-energy-landscape", "title": "Persistent homology 1-cycles (H₁ Betti number) of protein energy landscapes computed from MD trajectories predict the number of distinct folding intermediates with false negative rate < 5% when sampling density exceeds 100 transitions per identified metastable basin", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1515/9781400881802", "note": "Milnor — Morse theory provides exact critical point classification for smooth functions", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Meng et al. (2020) — persistent homology analysis of protein folding; J Chem Theory Comput", "confidence": 0.67 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-morse-theory-x-energy-landscape.yaml" }, { "id": "h-motives-feynman-amplitudes-arithmetic", "title": "All Feynman amplitudes in renormalizable quantum field theories (phi^4, QED, QCD) evaluate to periods of mixed Tate motives over the integers, predicting that every divergent Feynman integral evaluates after dimensional regularization to a Q-linear combination of multiple zeta values (MZVs) at all loop orders.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s002200050499", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Connes & Kreimer (1998) Hopf algebra framework identifies Feynman integrals as periods via the period map; supports arithmetic nature of Feynman amplitudes.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s00220-001-0528-7", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Connes & Kreimer (2001) connect Hopf algebra renormalization to Riemann-Hilbert problem; suggests deep arithmetic structure of Feynman periods via differential Galois theory.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-motives-feynman-amplitudes-arithmetic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-motivic-cohomology-algorithmic-computation", "title": "Motivic cohomology groups H^{p,q}_M(X,ℤ) of smooth projective varieties X over a number field are algorithmically computable for p ≤ 2 via algebraic K-theory and the Bloch-Kato conjecture (now Voevodsky's theorem), but p ≥ 3 cases remain computationally open due to the failure of finite generation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Voevodsky (2011) proof of Bloch-Kato: Milnor K-theory ≅ étale cohomology mod p — resolves p=1 case of motivic cohomology computation", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Quillen (1973) algebraic K-theory finite generation: K_n(O_F) finitely generated for number rings — p=2 motivic groups computable", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Scholl (1990) motivic cohomology beyond K-theory: higher Chow groups CH^p(X,q) for p≥3 not known to be finitely generated in general", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-motivic-cohomology-algorithmic-computation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-motor-cortex-rotational-dynamics-initial-condition-mechanism", "title": "Motor cortex preparatory activity sets the initial condition of a rotational dynamical system (dx/dt = Ax, A skew-symmetric) that generates the muscle activation pattern as a temporal readout — causally required for movement, not epiphenomenal, and generalisable across voluntary movement types beyond arm reaching.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature11129", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Churchland et al. (2012) — rotational dynamics in M1 during reaching; low-dimensional structure; correlation with muscle EMG" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nn.3643", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Cunningham & Yu (2014) — dimensionality of neural population dynamics; manifold hypothesis validated" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kaufman et al. (2014) Nature Neurosci — preparatory activity orthogonal to movement activity; consistent with initial condition model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-motor-cortex-rotational-dynamics-initial-condition-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mpc-with-ngm-constraints-reduces-epidemic-overshoot", "title": "Adaptive intervention policies that explicitly constrain projected NGM spectral radius reduce incidence overshoot versus threshold-only trigger rules under equal intervention budgets.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/BF00178324", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.51, "note": "Provides operator framework for structured transmission-gain interpretation." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mpc-with-ngm-constraints-reduces-epidemic-overshoot.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mri-turbulence-alpha-prediction", "title": "The Shakura-Sunyaev α parameter in accretion disks scales as α ∝ Pm^{1/2} (where Pm = ν/η is the magnetic Prandtl number), a scaling derivable from the balance between MRI channel mode growth and parasitic Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at the resistive scale.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1051/0004-6361:20077537", "note": "Fromang & Papaloizou (2007) — numerical evidence for α ~ Pm^{0.5} in shearing box" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lesur & Longaretti (2007) A&A 378:1449 — systematic Pm variation in shearing boxes shows α increases with Pm for Pm > 1, consistent with α ∝ Pm^{1/2} over one decade\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Fromang et al. (2007) showed zero net-flux MRI gives no sustained turbulence at zero Pm in the ideal limit — suggesting the Pm → 0 limit is singular and the α ∝ Pm^{1/2} scaling may not extend to laboratory Pm ~ 10⁻⁶.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mri-turbulence-alpha-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mrna-vaccine-lipid-nanoparticle-durability", "title": "The limited durability of mRNA vaccine-induced immunity is primarily caused by rapid LNP clearance from the injection site limiting germinal centre residence time, and slow-release LNP formulations or self-amplifying RNA will extend immunity duration by at least 3-fold in humans.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2021.01.053", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.77, "note": "Lederer et al. (2022) — germinal centre reactions in draining lymph nodes persist for 8 weeks after mRNA vaccination (longer than expected), but antigen availability declines sharply after day 14 limiting affinity maturation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-04653-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Crotty et al. (2022) — memory B cell quality (somatic hypermutation degree) is the primary predictor of durable antibody responses; antigen dose and persistence in germinal centres drives this\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.11.001", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Self-amplifying RNA (saRNA) platforms (Replikon technology) achieve comparable immune responses at 10-fold lower mRNA dose with extended antigen expression, suggesting formulation duration is rate-limiting\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mrna-vaccine-lipid-nanoparticle-durability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-multi-shell-dmri-estimates-track-phantom-tortuosity", "title": "In porous phantoms with independently measured tortuosity, multi-shell diffusion MRI models will rank-order effective tortuosity with Spearman rho at least 0.7 after correcting for orientation dispersion; falsified if rankings are indistinguishable from single-shell ADC.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0006-3495(94)80775-1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Basser, Mattiello and LeBihan (1994) diffusion tensor MRI framework." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-multi-shell-dmri-estimates-track-phantom-tortuosity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-multi-wavelength-beer-lambert-inverse-improves-plate-precision", "title": "Ridge-regularized multi-wavelength inversion of overlapping dye spectra reduces cross-well concentration RMSE versus single-wavelength calibration on multiplex microplate benchmarks — falsified if RMSE gains fall below 15% on curated dye-interference panels.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.28, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1515/iupac.68.3549", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.42, "note": "Beer–Lambert foundations supporting linear mixing stacks under stated validity regimes." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-multi-wavelength-beer-lambert-inverse-improves-plate-precision.yaml" }, { "id": "h-multiplicative-noise-pareto-exponent-capital-tax-rate", "title": "The Pareto wealth exponent α across OECD countries quantitatively follows α = 1 + (r − g)/σ²_r + τ/σ²_r (Bouchaud-Mézard formula with redistribution correction), with α predictable from independently measurable macro-financial parameters to within ±0.2, confirming multiplicative noise as the mechanistic driver of wealth inequality dynamics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bouchaud & Mézard (2000) — analytical derivation gives α = 1 + ρ/σ² for pure multiplicative noise without redistribution; qualitatively consistent with observed range α=1.2–2.5 for plausible ρ,σ² values", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Piketty & Zucman (2014) QJE — r>g documented for 8 countries 1700–2010 with capital return data; r−g variation cross-nationally matches rank order of Pareto index estimates qualitatively", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Gabaix et al. (2016) — idiosyncratic shocks to firm size produce Zipf law; same multiplicative mechanism; cross-sectional variance σ²_r varies 3-fold across OECD", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Measurement of Pareto α from top income shares (Atkinson, Piketty) conflates capital income (power law) and total income (bimodal); without separating labor vs. capital income, α estimates confound two distributions", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-multiplicative-noise-pareto-exponent-capital-tax-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-multiscale-filtration-persistence-improves-microscopy-segmentation-qc", "title": "Multiscale filtrations tuned to PSF-informed geometric scales yield persistence-based QC scores that correlate with human-expert segmentation failure rates under controlled noise injections.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1145/997817.997855", "note": "Supports interpreting persistence distances as bounded under geometric perturbations when assumptions hold.", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-multiscale-filtration-persistence-improves-microscopy-segmentation-qc.yaml" }, { "id": "h-muscle-crossbridge-sliding-filament", "title": "Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) mutations in myosin heavy chain increase the fraction of heads in the 'on' state (super-relaxed → disordered relaxed transition), shifting σ and elevating resting metabolic cost before symptoms appear", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.271.5245.70", "note": "Finer et al. (1994) single myosin molecule mechanics", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Spudich (2014) Hypertrophic and dilated cardiomyopathy: four decades of basic research on muscle lead to potential therapeutic approaches. Biophys J 106:1236", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-muscle-crossbridge-sliding-filament.yaml" }, { "id": "h-muscle-mechanics-x-crossbridge-theory", "title": "A 6-state crossbridge model (pre-power stroke, power stroke, post-power stroke, three detached ATPase states) reproduces all mechanical transients in skeletal muscle within experimental error, and the rate constants are consistent with single-molecule optical trap measurements.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rspb.1957.0045", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Huxley (1957) - 2-state model recovers Hill equation; foundation for multi-state extensions" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Huxley & Simmons (1971) - rapid force recovery suggests at least 4 mechanical states; Nature 233:533", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Piazzesi et al. (2007) - single myosin step size from X-ray fiber diffraction; ~11 nm; supports 2-step power stroke", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-muscle-mechanics-x-crossbridge-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-mycelial-network-mst-approximation", "title": "Mycelial transport networks of Phanerochaete velutina grown on agar plates connecting nutrient-source wood blocks will achieve total hyphal wire length within 10% of the Steiner minimum spanning tree while maintaining at least 2-connectivity (fault tolerance against single-edge deletion), and this Pareto-optimal structure will emerge without long-range signalling as shown by spatially ablating hyphal cords outside the growth front", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.1000228", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Bebber et al. (2007) — Phanerochaete networks are within ~5% of MST wire length with added loops" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0707492104", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Tero et al. (2010) — slime mold MST optimization (parallel biological network comparison)" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Fricker et al. (2017) — network topology analysis of wood-decay fungi" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-mycelial-network-mst-approximation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-myelination-optimal-axon-diameter-conduction-velocity", "title": "The observed g-ratio distribution of myelinated axons across mammalian species and fibre types represents the solution to a constrained optimisation problem (maximise conduction velocity per unit axon volume) predicted by the cable equation, and deviations from g_optimal ≈ 0.6 reflect specific metabolic or developmental constraints that can be predicted quantitatively.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1113/jphysiol.1951.sp004802", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Rushton (1951) J Physiol 115:101 — derived g_optimal ≈ 0.6 from cable theory; empirical data clustered near this value" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nrn2781", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Nave (2010) reviewed myelin biology; g-ratio variation in disease linked to conduction slowing consistent with cable prediction" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wang et al. (2008) J Neurosci — g-ratio varies with activity in developing axons; suggests developmental plasticity towards optimal value" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-myelination-optimal-axon-diameter-conduction-velocity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-myosin-brownian-ratchet-jarzynski", "title": "Jarzynski equality non-equilibrium work measurements will reveal that myosin II free energy transduction efficiency exceeds classical Carnot limit due to quantum tunneling corrections at physiological temperature\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.94.12.6185", "note": "Huxley (1997) - Molecular motor mechanism; power stroke step is diffusion-dominated consistent with ratchet", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Florin et al. (1994) - Optical tweezer single-molecule force measurements show step variance consistent with diffusive ratchet", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Jarzynski (1997) - Nonequilibrium equality for free energy differences; enables efficiency measurement from non-equilibrium trajectories", "confidence": 0.88 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-myosin-brownian-ratchet-jarzynski.yaml" }, { "id": "h-narrative-situation-model-hippocampus-updated", "title": "Story comprehension constructs a multi-dimensional situation model (event, time, space, causality, character) in the hippocampus and cortical networks, with hippocampal pattern completion predicting event boundaries, and the default mode network continuously updating the situation model across narrative shifts", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41593-021-00802-0", "note": "Zacks et al. (2007) — Event perception: a mind/brain perspective; Psych Bull 133:273", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2011.08.016", "note": "Hasson et al. (2015) — A hierarchy of temporal receptive windows in human cortex; J Neurosci", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.aal3931", "note": "Baldassano et al. (2017) — Discovering event structure in continuous narrative perception; Neuron 95:709", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-narrative-situation-model-hippocampus-updated.yaml" }, { "id": "h-narrative-situation-model-hippocampus", "title": "Narrative comprehension is implemented as incremental situation model construction in the hippocampus and parietal cortex, with the default mode network tracking narrative event boundaries and the angular gyrus integrating semantic and spatial dimensions of the mental model.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0858-08.2008", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Speer et al. (2008) - hippocampus tracks narrative event boundaries; DMN integrates narrative context" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2017.06.021", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Baldassano et al. (2017) - neural event segmentation during story comprehension follows situation model updates" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Zwaan & Radvansky (1998) - situation model dimensions: time, space, causation, character, goal" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-narrative-situation-model-hippocampus.yaml" }, { "id": "h-natural-gradient-selection-reaches-fitness-optimum-faster-than-euclidean", "title": "Natural selection following the Shahshahani (Fisher information metric) geometry reaches a fitness optimum in systematically fewer generations than a hypothetical \"Euclidean\" evolution process with the same gradient magnitude, and the speedup factor is quantitatively predicted by the condition number of the Fisher information matrix at the starting allele frequency.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1420-9101.2012.02641.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Frank (2012) J Evol Biol 25:2377 — Price equation in Fisher information geometry" }, { "doi": "10.1162/089976698300017746", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Amari (1998) — natural gradient convergence rate theory; translates directly" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-natural-gradient-selection-reaches-fitness-optimum-faster-than-euclidean.yaml" }, { "id": "h-natural-language-mildly-context-sensitive-transformer-approximation", "title": "Human natural language belongs to the mildly context-sensitive class (tree-adjoining grammar, O(n⁶) parsing), and transformer LLMs with depth d and width w can approximate arbitrary MCSL languages with O(1/d) error, but cannot exactly compute any non-regular language with bounded-depth fixed-width architecture due to the O(log n) parallelism constraint on Boolean circuit depth.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Chomsky (1956) — hierarchy established; Shieber (1985) — Swiss German is not context-free, supporting MCSL characterization of human language" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Hahn et al. (2020) TACL — transformers with hard attention cannot recognize a^n b^n (non-context-free); with soft attention they approximate it" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Yao et al. (2021) — transformers simulate pushdown automata with O(n²) attention; implications for CFL recognition extend to TAG/MCSL" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-natural-language-mildly-context-sensitive-transformer-approximation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-navier-stokes-rg-fixed-point-intermittency-exponents", "title": "The anomalous intermittency exponents ζ_p in 3D turbulence arise from the leading irrelevant operator at the K41 RG fixed point, and their values can be derived perturbatively in ε = 4 − d (d = dimension) using the DRG expansion, with the leading correction giving ζ_6 = 1.77 ± 0.05.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.57.1722", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Yakhot & Orszag – DRG fixed point; leading-order K41 exponents; basis for perturbative corrections" }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.fluid.30.1.275", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Frisch – multifractal turbulence: review of anomalous exponents and theoretical approaches" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-navier-stokes-rg-fixed-point-intermittency-exponents.yaml" }, { "id": "h-negative-control-calibrated-estimators-reduce-pharmacovigilance-signal-bias", "title": "Negative-control-calibrated estimators reduce false-positive pharmacovigilance safety signals in observational cohorts.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3053408/", "note": "Negative controls in epidemiology.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-negative-control-calibrated-estimators-reduce-pharmacovigilance-signal-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-negative-heat-capacity-stellar-stability-criterion", "title": "Globular clusters with concentration parameter c > 2.0 (King model) are in post-core-collapse phase and their core radius distribution follows a log-normal consistent with gravothermal oscillations, distinguishable from the log-normal of pre-collapse clusters by a systematic offset in the core-halo luminosity ratio.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/mnras/138.4.495", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Lynden-Bell & Wood (1968) establish gravothermal catastrophe theory" }, { "doi": "10.1093/mnras/95.3.207", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Chandrasekhar (1935) polytrope stability — n=3 critical boundary" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-negative-heat-capacity-stellar-stability-criterion.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nematic-confinement-fluctuation-second-order", "title": "Confinement of nematic liquid crystals in cylindrical pores below a critical diameter d* ~ 20-50 nm changes the isotropic-nematic transition from first-order to continuous (second-order) by enhancing orientational fluctuations that reduce the cubic Landau coefficient b to zero; this is detectable by calorimetry as disappearance of latent heat below d*.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.66, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.79.4214", "note": "Iannacchione et al. (1997) - calorimetric and X-ray evidence for I-N transition in confined 5CB", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.65.011706", "note": "Kutnjak et al. (2003) - calorimetric study of liquid crystal in porous glass", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nematic-confinement-fluctuation-second-order.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neo-hookean-model-predicts-soft-actuator-90pct", "title": "Neo-Hookean hyperelastic FEM simulations predict soft pneumatic actuator tip displacement to within 10% of measured values across the full actuation pressure range, provided material constants are calibrated from uniaxial tensile tests on the same silicone batch\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neo-hookean-model-predicts-soft-actuator-90pct.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nestedness-generalist-removal-cascade", "title": "Removal of the most generalist species from nested mutualistic networks will trigger disproportionately large secondary extinction cascades compared to random or specialist removal, with cascade size predictable from the leading eigenvalue of the mutualistic interaction matrix", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature09394", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Bastolla et al. (2009) Nature - nestedness reduces effective competition; spectral analysis" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1073381", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Bascompte et al. (2003) Science - nestedness and biodiversity in mutualistic networks" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Memmott et al. (2004) - tolerance of pollination networks to species extinctions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nestedness-generalist-removal-cascade.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nestedness-robustness-degree-heterogeneity-mediation", "title": "The robustness benefit of nestedness in mutualistic networks is fully mediated by degree heterogeneity: highly nested networks are more robust only because nestedness is mathematically correlated with degree heterogeneity, and when degree sequence is held constant via configuration model null models, nestedness provides no additional robustness beyond what degree heterogeneity predicts.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0307334100", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Bascompte et al. (2003) PNAS 100:9383 - nested structure of mutualistic networks" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature07931", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Bastolla et al. (2009) Nature 458:1018 - nestedness reduces competition, increases biodiversity" }, { "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01713.x", "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "James et al. (2012) - nestedness does not increase robustness beyond degree heterogeneity" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nestedness-robustness-degree-heterogeneity-mediation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-network-assortativity-predicts-misinformation-spread-rate", "title": "The assortativity coefficient of political belief networks quantitatively predicts the within-community vs between-community information spread rate ratio, such that networks with assortativity r > 0.5 show misinformation spreading 10× faster within communities than between, creating measurable belief divergence within 30 days.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.208701", "note": "Newman (2002) — assortativity coefficient formalism; assortative networks have eigengap between within-group and between-group mixing rates that determines information spread asymmetry.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1816840116", "note": "Bail et al. (2019) PNAS — Twitter experiment exposing conservatives to liberal content; no attitude change, possible backfire — consistent with inter-community bridge being bottleneck.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1804840115", "note": "Guess et al. (2018) — fake news consumption concentrated in high-assortativity political network clusters.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-network-assortativity-predicts-misinformation-spread-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-network-community-structure-drives-polarization", "title": "Political polarization in online social networks arises from community structure (high modularity) creating exponentially long-lived metastable states in voter-model dynamics, predictable by the ratio of within-community to between-community edges, and reducible by algorithmic feed diversification.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.81.591", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Castellano et al. — statistical physics of social dynamics, community structure and consensus time" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.94.178701", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Sood & Redner — voter model on heterogeneous graphs, consensus time scaling" }, { "doi": "10.2307/2334957", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Clifford & Sudbury (1973) — original voter model connecting ecology and social dynamics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-network-community-structure-drives-polarization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-architecture-search-x-evolutionary-biology", "title": "NAS fitness landscapes on benchmark tasks (NAS-Bench-201) exhibit ruggedness and neutrality statistics similar to protein fitness landscapes: >40% neutral single-step mutations, epistasis coefficient eta > 0.3, and multiple distinct fitness peaks corresponding to convergent architectural solutions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1802.01548", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Real et al. (2019) - AmoebaNet; evolutionary search finds multiple competitive architectures suggesting a rugged landscape with many peaks" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Dong & Yang (2020) - NAS-Bench-201: full accuracy table for 15,625 architectures on CIFAR-100; landscape characterization possible", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Poelwijk et al. (2007) - epistasis in protein fitness landscapes; sign epistasis determines evolutionary accessibility", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-architecture-search-x-evolutionary-biology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-avalanche-criticality-dynamic-range", "title": "The brain operates near a critical branching ratio (σ ≈ 1) because criticality maximises the dynamic range of response to sensory stimuli, and this criticality is homeostatically regulated by synaptic scaling — disruption of homeostatic plasticity shifts the system away from criticality and impairs sensory discrimination.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.86, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.5601-03.2003", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Beggs & Plenz (2003) J Neurosci — neuronal avalanches follow P(s) ∝ s^(-3/2) in organotypic cultures; branching ratio σ ≈ 1; subcritical (σ < 1) reduces dynamic range; supercritical (σ > 1) causes synchronous bursting\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.97.138107", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Kinouchi & Copelli (2006) PRL — analytical result: critical branching process maximises dynamic range over 5-6 orders of magnitude of input intensity; off-critical networks have narrower response range (proof of dynamic range optimality)\n" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003985", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Priesemann et al. (2014) PLoS Comput Biol — in vivo LFP analysis shows resting cortex is slightly subcritical (σ ≈ 0.95), not exactly critical; active states shift toward criticality, suggesting criticality is dynamically regulated\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-avalanche-criticality-dynamic-range.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-cde-models-improve-icu-event-lead-time", "title": "Neural CDE models improve clinically usable ICU event lead-time at fixed false-alert rate compared with interpolation-based baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2005.08926", "note": "Continuous-time latent dynamics for irregular data.", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-cde-models-improve-icu-event-lead-time.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-diversity-stability-random-matrix-prediction", "title": "The stability of cortical neural circuits under random synaptic perturbation follows May's random matrix criterion — circuits with higher interneuron subtype diversity have lower effective interaction variance σ² and require stronger perturbation to destabilize, quantitatively matching theoretical predictions from the Wigner semicircle law.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/238413a0", "note": "May (1972) Nature — random matrix stability criterion σ√(SC) < 1 for ecological communities; same mathematics applies to neural connectivity matrices.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2011.09.026", "note": "Isaacson & Scanziani (2011) Cell — E/I balance in cortical circuits; disrupting balance causes instability consistent with May's criterion.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nn.3134", "note": "Litwin-Kumar & Doiron (2012) — heterogeneous networks show slower fluctuations and different stability properties than homogeneous networks, consistent with diversity-stability connection.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-diversity-stability-random-matrix-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-ew-indicators-climate-tipping-transfer", "title": "Multivariate early-warning indicators borrowed from neural criticality analysis (leading eigenvector of the spatial covariance matrix) applied to CMIP6 climate model output will detect simulated AMOC and Arctic sea-ice tipping points with at least 20% greater lead time than the standard univariate AR1 indicator\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature08227", "note": "Scheffer et al. (2009) Nature — establishes AR1 and variance as universal EWIs; motivates testing of multivariate generalizations\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.23-35-11167.2003", "note": "Beggs & Plenz (2003) — neural criticality EWIs; multivariate methods developed in this tradition (dynamic functional connectivity, eigenvector analysis)\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1098/rstb.2012.0114", "note": "Lenton et al. (2012) — review of tipping EWI caveats; null model requirements that any multivariate method must pass\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-ew-indicators-climate-tipping-transfer.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-manifold-geometry-encodes-cognitive-map", "title": "The intrinsic geometry (curvature, topology, metric tensor) of neural population activity manifolds in hippocampus and entorhinal cortex encodes a cognitive map of task-relevant variables whose topology matches the topology of the task environment", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nn.3776", "note": "Cunningham & Yu (2014) — Dimensionality reduction reveals low-dimensional structure in population activity; foundational", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gardner et al. (2022) — Toroidal topology of neural activity for grid cells in entorhinal cortex, Nature 602:123; first topology match demonstration", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Chaudhuri et al. (2019) — The intrinsic attractor manifold and population dynamics, Nat Neurosci 22:1512; attractor dynamics form low-d manifolds", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-manifold-geometry-encodes-cognitive-map.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-network-generalisation-implicit-bias", "title": "Overparameterised neural networks generalise due to implicit bias of gradient descent toward minimum-norm (maximum-margin) solutions — stochastic gradient descent selects the flattest loss basin, which corresponds to the most regular learned function", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.abn7293", "note": "Bartlett et al. (2020) — benign overfitting in linear regression", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/3313276.3316349", "note": "Gunasekar et al. (2018) — implicit regularization in matrix factorization", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1821353116", "note": "Belkin et al. (2019) — reconciling modern machine learning practice and the bias-variance tradeoff", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-network-generalisation-implicit-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-ode-lyapunov-stability-generalization", "title": "Neural ODEs with Lyapunov-stable vector fields generalize better than unstable ones, and adversarial examples correspond to initial conditions near Lyapunov function saddle points\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1806.07366", "note": "Chen et al. (2018) - Neural ODEs; implicit continuous-depth regularization via adjoint sensitivity method", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Galimberti et al. (2021) - Stable Neural Flows; stability constraints on Neural ODE vector fields improve robustness", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-ode-lyapunov-stability-generalization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-ode-priors-improve-pk-state-forecasting", "title": "Embedding pharmacokinetic priors into neural ODE models improves sparse-sample drug concentration forecasting versus unconstrained sequence models.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1806.07366", "note": "Neural ODE framework supports continuous-time modeling of irregular observations.", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-ode-priors-improve-pk-state-forecasting.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-operator-assimilation-improves-space-weather-lead-time", "title": "Neural-operator surrogates coupled to assimilation improve space-weather warning lead time at fixed false-alarm rate.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2010.08895", "note": "Fourier Neural Operator baseline.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-operator-assimilation-improves-space-weather-lead-time.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-plasticity-x-hebbian-learning", "title": "Three-factor STDP rules (pre × post × dopamine reward signal) implement an unbiased estimator of the policy gradient in model-free reinforcement learning for spike timings within a 200ms eligibility trace window, enabling reward-modulated STDP to solve delayed-reward tasks impossible for two-factor Hebbian rules", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.18-24-10464.1998", "note": "Bi & Poo (1998) — STDP in hippocampal neurons; established the temporal learning window", "confidence": 0.81 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Froemke & Dan (2002) — Spike-timing-dependent synaptic modification induced by natural spike trains; Nature 416:433", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-plasticity-x-hebbian-learning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-spectral-ocean-model-improves-submesoscale-forecast-skill", "title": "Neural spectral ocean surrogates improve 24-72 hour submesoscale forecast skill over reduced-physics baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2010.08895", "note": "Operator-learning basis for spectral surrogate forecasting.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-spectral-ocean-model-improves-submesoscale-forecast-skill.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neural-spike-coding-x-information-compression", "title": "Retinal ganglion cell receptive field shapes are optimally tuned to the statistics of the specific natural scenes encountered during early visual development, and this tuning is lost when visual experience is restricted during the critical period\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/381520a0", "note": "Olshausen & Field (1996) - Emergence of simple-cell receptive fields by learning a sparse code for natural images", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Atick & Redlich (1992) - What does the retina know about natural scenes; Neural Comp 4:196; doi:10.1162/neco.1992.4.2.196", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neural-spike-coding-x-information-compression.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neurogenesis-requirement-ssri-antidepressant-human-evidence", "title": "Adult hippocampal neurogenesis is necessary but not sufficient for the antidepressant effect of SSRIs: genetic or radiation-induced ablation of neurogenesis will block SSRI efficacy in primate models of anhedonia/despair, and ketamine's rapid antidepressant effect (within hours) will be neurogenesis-independent.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Santarelli et al. (2003) Science 301:805 — X-irradiation of hippocampus abolishes neurogenesis and blocks the behavioral effect of fluoxetine in the novelty-suppressed feeding test in mice; unirradiated controls show fluoxetine antidepressant effect — foundational neurogenesis requirement evidence", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "David et al. (2009) Neuron 62:479 — conditional ablation of neurogenesis (GFAP-tk transgenic, ganciclovir) blocks fluoxetine effect on HPA axis normalization (corticosterone reduction after stress) — mechanistic link between new neurons and stress axis regulation", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Bessa et al. (2009) Neuropsychopharmacology 34:763 — antidepressant effect of imipramine in sucrose preference test (anhedonia model) is NOT blocked by X-irradiation in mice — suggesting neurogenesis requirement is assay-specific, not universal for all antidepressant effects", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Castrén (2004) Science 304:529 — 2-3 week lag between SSRI treatment and antidepressant effect matches new neuron maturation time (DCX+ cells mature in ~4 weeks) — temporal correlation supports neurogenesis hypothesis; ketamine works within hours, suggesting non-neurogenesis mechanism (AMPAR potentiation)", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Human neurogenesis controversy (Sorrells 2018 vs. Spalding 2013) — if adult human neurogenesis is negligible, the neurogenesis hypothesis cannot apply to human SSRI treatment, even if animal models show requirement", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neurogenesis-requirement-ssri-antidepressant-human-evidence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neuroinflammation-depression-biomarker", "title": "CRP level above 3 mg/L identifies a biologically distinct depression subtype that responds to anti-inflammatory treatment but not to SSRIs, with effect size at least 0.5", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neuroinflammation-depression-biomarker.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neuromorphic-chips-edge-ai-energy-advantage", "title": "Neuromorphic chips implementing spiking neural networks will achieve 100–1000× lower energy per inference than GPU-based neural networks for always-on edge AI tasks (keyword spotting, gesture recognition, anomaly detection) while maintaining competitive accuracy, making them the dominant architecture for IoT sensing applications by 2030\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Intel Loihi keyword-spotting benchmark: 109× lower energy vs. GPU at comparable accuracy (6 GOPS/W vs. ARM Cortex-M GPU equivalent); Davies et al. 2021 Nature Machine Intelligence." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "IBM TrueNorth spike-based convnet for image classification at 70 mW vs. 10s of W for GPU inference on same ImageNet task (Esser et al. 2016, PNAS)." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "SNN accuracy on complex tasks (ImageNet, COCO detection) remains below equivalent ANNs by 3–8% top-1; the accuracy gap must close for neuromorphic chips to challenge GPU inference on vision tasks." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neuromorphic-chips-edge-ai-energy-advantage.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neuromorphic-sparse-coding-energy-bound", "title": "Neuromorphic computing achieves fundamental energy advantage over von Neumann architectures because sparse event-driven coding (biological spike rates ~1-10 Hz vs continuous 10^9 Hz clock cycles) reduces energy per inference by 10^3-10^5x, with the theoretical minimum set by Landauer's bound per synaptic event (~10^4 kT per spike in biological neurons, 10-100 kT in CMOS implementations).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/JPROC.2014.2304638", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Merolla et al. (2014) - IBM TrueNorth: 70 mW for 10^8 synaptic operations/second (vs GPU 200W)" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41928-019-0361-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Schuman et al. (2022) - neuromorphic computing review: energy efficiency and limits" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Attwell & Laughlin (2001) - energy budget of spiking neurons: 10^4 ATP per action potential" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neuromorphic-sparse-coding-energy-bound.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neuromuscular-size-principle-metabolic-optimality", "title": "Henneman's size principle (slow-twitch S motor units recruited before FR before FF) is the optimal recruitment strategy that minimises total metabolic energy expenditure per unit force-time integral across all submaximal contractions — and violations of orderly recruitment observed in some tasks (reverse recruitment) are predicted by the optimisation when metabolic cost includes task-specific penalty terms.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1152/jn.1965.28.3.560", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Henneman et al. (1965) — orderly recruitment demonstrated; physiological basis in motor neuron input resistance" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Heckman & Enoka (2012) Compr Physiol — review of motor unit recruitment; size principle holds across most voluntary contractions" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Nardone et al. (1989) — reverse recruitment of fast units in eccentric contractions; possible exception to size principle" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neuromuscular-size-principle-metabolic-optimality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neuronal-avalanche-driven-subcritical", "title": "The cortex operates in a driven, slightly subcritical regime (sigma ~ 0.98) rather than exactly at the critical point: this explains why in vivo avalanche exponents systematically deviate from mean-field directed percolation predictions and why dynamic range is near-maximal but not maximal, consistent with noise-robust information transmission rather than maximum susceptibility.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002119", "note": "Priesemann et al. (2014) - spike avalanches in vivo suggest driven subcritical regime (sigma ~ 0.95-0.99)", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nphys3169", "note": "Shew & Plenz (2013) - functional benefits of neuronal noise near criticality", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neuronal-avalanche-driven-subcritical.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neuronal-avalanches-branching-process", "title": "In vivo Neuropixels recordings in awake mice will show state-dependent σ: wakefulness σ≈1 (critical), NREM sleep σ<0.8 (subcritical), and REM sleep σ≈1 — supporting state-dependent criticality rather than fixed operating point", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.23-35-11167.2003", "note": "Beggs & Plenz (2003) original cortical criticality paper", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nphys2478", "note": "Shew & Plenz (2013) functional benefits of criticality", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neuronal-avalanches-branching-process.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neutral-atom-fidelity-motional-decoherence-limit", "title": "Neutral atom qubit gate fidelities are primarily limited by motional-state decoherence during Rydberg blockade gates, and active motional-state cooling (sideband cooling to ground state) combined with magic wavelength optical tweezers will enable two-qubit gate fidelities ≥99.9% sufficient for fault-tolerant threshold.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-022-04592-w", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Evered et al. (2023) Nature — two-qubit Rydberg gate fidelity 99.5% with neutral atoms; main errors: photon scattering from Rydberg state (1.2%), atomic motion during gate (0.8%), laser phase noise (0.5%); identifies motional decoherence as primary controllable error\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevX.12.021049", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Bluvstein et al. (2022) — magic-wavelength traps eliminate differential light shift between qubit states; combined with tweezer reconfigurability enables ZXZXZ gate sequences; magic wavelength identified as key for coherence extension\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.150604", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Sideband cooling in optical tweezers demonstrated for Rb and Cs to n_bar < 0.05; predicted to reduce motional gate error by factor 10; not yet combined with high-fidelity two-qubit gates in the same apparatus\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neutral-atom-fidelity-motional-decoherence-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neutral-theory-x-stochastic-sampling", "title": "Neutral theory with immigration correction (full Poisson-Dirichlet likelihood) fits tropical forest SAD data from BCI with p > 0.05 (no significant deviation from neutral), while niche-based species energy theory is rejected by the species rank-abundance curve at p < 0.01 for the same dataset", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00503.x", "note": "Hubbell — neutral theory log-series SAD prediction from Ewens sampling formula", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Etienne & Olff (2004) — Poisson-Dirichlet distribution and neutral biodiversity theory; Ecology Letters 7:170", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neutral-theory-x-stochastic-sampling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neutral-theta-estimates-converge-pre-post-gap-chronosequence", "title": "For replicated forest plots where neutral θ is fitted from closed-canopy census versus gap-phase recruits separately, estimates will converge within bootstrap confidence intervals when gap disturbance homogenizes competitive asymmetry — falsified if θ diverges systematically across gap ages despite comparable sampling depth.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.38, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1066854", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Neutral theory parameter interpretation baseline" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neutral-theta-estimates-converge-pre-post-gap-chronosequence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neutron-star-quark-crossover-2-solar-mass", "title": "A smooth quark-hadron crossover (rather than first-order phase transition) in neutron star cores is consistent with 2 M_sun pulsars and NICER M-R constraints, and will be distinguishable from hadronic-only EOS by future 0.3 km radius precision", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.172703", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Annala et al. (2018) - quark-hadron crossover consistent with GW170817 and 2 M_sun" }, { "doi": "10.3847/2041-8213/ab0c2f", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "NICER J0030+0451 M-R: current 1-sigma contour spans hadronic and crossover EOS families" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neutron-star-quark-crossover-2-solar-mass.yaml" }, { "id": "h-neutron-star-x-nuclear-matter", "title": "Gravitational wave post-merger spectral peaks from neutron star binary coalescences (f₂ ≈ 2.5-3.5 kHz) will show a discontinuous frequency jump as a function of total binary mass at M_total = 2.7±0.2 solar masses, signaling a first-order quark-hadron phase transition in the merger remnant", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.89.015007", "note": "Oertel et al. (2017) — Equations of state for neutron stars; nuclear matter constraints", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bauswein et al. (2019) — Identifying a first-order phase transition in neutron-star mergers; Phys Rev Lett 122:061102", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-neutron-star-x-nuclear-matter.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nfs-rsa-concrete-security-boundary", "title": "The number field sieve factorization record will reach RSA-2048 (2048-bit modulus) within 15 years using classical computing, requiring approximately 10^18 core-hours based on extrapolation of the L_n[1/3, 1.923] NFS complexity formula to current hardware trends, and this estimate will be confirmed to within a factor of 3 by the next three record factorizations of 1000–1800 bit numbers", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/3-540-49264-X_1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Lenstra & Lenstra (1993) — NFS complexity analysis; basis for record extrapolation" }, { "doi": "10.1145/3386134", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Bardet et al. (2020) — current NFS factorization records; hardware cost benchmarks" }, { "type": "related", "note": "NIST (2020) — post-quantum cryptography standardization; key size recommendations based on NFS" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nfs-rsa-concrete-security-boundary.yaml" }, { "id": "h-niche-construction-accelerated-local-adaptation", "title": "In earthworm-invaded soil plots in northern North America, the rate of local plant community genetic adaptation (measured by common garden fitness differences between invaded and uninvaded source populations) will be significantly higher than in matched plots without earthworms, demonstrating that niche construction accelerates genetic evolution on decadal timescales", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rstb.2003.1329", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Odling-Smee et al. (2003) — niche construction theory predicts NC can accelerate or decelerate adaptation" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Frelich et al. (2019) — earthworm invasion alters soil and plant community composition in Minnesota forests" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hendry et al. (2017) — eco-evolutionary dynamics: reviewing empirical evidence" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-niche-construction-accelerated-local-adaptation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nmr-rotating-frame-x-effective-hamiltonian", "title": "Lindblad-augmented differentiable simulators predicting measurable deviations from Magnus-average Hamiltonians will outperform closed-system pulse optimizers on relaxation-heavy benchtop samples — measurable via randomized benchmarking fidelity deltas exceeding instrument noise floors.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.46, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511992635", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Spin dynamics formal reference basis for rotating-frame expansions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nmr-rotating-frame-x-effective-hamiltonian.yaml" }, { "id": "h-noether-symmetry-breaking-new-physics", "title": "Every experimentally observed violation of a known conservation law implies a new broken symmetry — systematic search for conservation law violations (CP violation, baryon asymmetry, lepton number) should be interpreted as Noether's theorem pointing to undiscovered symmetry structure.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "CP violation observed in kaon and B-meson systems (Cronin & Fitch 1964, BaBar, Belle) implies broken CP symmetry — consistent with Noether's theorem (no CP conservation law because no exact CP symmetry in the Standard Model).\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Baryon asymmetry of the universe (matter dominates antimatter) implies B-L symmetry violation at early cosmic times — Sakharov conditions require baryon number violation, CP violation, and departure from thermal equilibrium.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Weinberg (1995) The Quantum Theory of Fields: symmetry-breaking as the organizing principle of particle physics beyond the Standard Model.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-noether-symmetry-breaking-new-physics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nonhelical-resonator-adiabatic-quantum-memory", "title": "Cryogenic high-Q non-helical resonators driven with reversible control protocols can exhibit measured energy per irreversible bit-reset approaching order-of-magnitude Landauer k_B T ln(2) once loss channels are separated — excluding stronger claims without calibrated erasure accounting.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature10872", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Laboratory precedent for measuring Landauer-scale energy exchanges in a controlled platform." }, { "doi": "10.1147/rd.53.0183", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Landauer (1961) — foundational bound tying dissipation to logically irreversible operations." }, { "doi": "10.1147/rd.173.0525", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Bennett (1973) — reversible computation baseline relevant for protocol design." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nonhelical-resonator-adiabatic-quantum-memory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nonhelical-turing-cloaking-adaptation", "title": "Gradient-parameter non-helical resonator arrays may exhibit spatially organized high-Q mode clusters whose dominant spacing responds to insulation gradient strength — enabling adaptive scattering/beam-shaping hypotheses — but “adaptive cloaking without external control” remains speculative until instability physics is validated.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rstb.1952.0012", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Turing (1952) reaction–diffusion anchor for biological pattern scaling analogies." }, { "doi": "10.1242/dev.035519", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.42, "note": "Nakamasu et al. (2009) — biological example of self-organized periodic patterns (analogy only)." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Direct experimental literature for Turing-like spontaneous patterning in non-helical microwave resonator arrays is not yet established; the EM side of the bridge should be treated as a conjecture until stability analysis and measurements exist.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nonhelical-turing-cloaking-adaptation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nonstandard-arithmetic-peano-independence", "title": "The standard model of Peano arithmetic (ℕ) is not first-order definable among all models of PA — every non-standard model satisfies the same first-order sentences as ℕ — and the model-theoretic properties that distinguish ℕ (e.g., \"well-founded\") are second-order statements that cannot be captured in the first-order setting.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Tennenbaum (1959) theorem: no non-standard model of PA has computable addition and multiplication — standard model is the unique computable model", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gödel (1931) incompleteness: PA consistent → non-standard models exist containing 'infinite' Gödel codes — first-order indistinguishable from standard model", "confidence": 0.95 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kossak & Schmerl (2006) The Structure of Models of Peano Arithmetic: classification of non-standard models by cofinal extensions and cuts", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nonstandard-arithmetic-peano-independence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-norm-cascade-ising-ew", "title": "The same-sex marriage opinion shift in the United States (1990-2015) shows Ising early-warning indicators — rising AR1 and variance in annual Gallup support data — with scaling exponents consistent with the mean-field Ising universality class (nu=1/2), identifying a measurable social tipping point near 2011-2012.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gallup polling on same-sex marriage support: 27% (1996) → 37% (2005) → 53% (2012) → 67% (2018). The trajectory shows a classic S-curve with inflection near 50% (2011-2012) — consistent with an Ising transition crossing the order parameter M=0 line under an external field (legislative pressure, judicial rulings). The inflection point is the social T_c.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0305937101", "note": "Sornette-class social models predict rising variance near the social tipping inflection — testable against state-level Gallup data as a spatial EWI" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The S-curve in opinion adoption is well described by simple logistic diffusion (Bass model, Rogers adoption curve) without invoking Ising criticality. The Ising EWI hypothesis requires that the specific scaling exponent of AR1 and variance be *not* logistic (which gives no EWIs) but critical (which gives AR1 ~ 1 - c*(t_c - t)^(1/2)). Distinguishing the two requires fitting both functional forms to the same data and comparing likelihood.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-norm-cascade-ising-ew.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nose-hoover-chains-match-target-kinetic-spectra-when-tuned", "title": "On a peptide folding benchmark, BAOAB Langevin splitting at moderate friction will reproduce reference conformational populations with lower timestep bias than explicit Euler–Maruyama at equal cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.54, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.31.1695", "note": "Canonical deterministic thermostat formulation used across MD codes" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1080/00268978400101201", "note": "Original constant-temperature MD framework connecting to statistical ensembles" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nose-hoover-chains-match-target-kinetic-spectra-when-tuned.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ntk-deep-learning-kernel-regression", "title": "In the NTK (lazy training) regime, the generalization performance of deep neural networks is fully determined by the eigenspectrum of the Neural Tangent Kernel matrix K_∞ on the training set, and networks exceeding the NTK regime gain additional generalization through feature learning that cannot be captured by any fixed kernel — making the NTK an upper bound on what kernel methods can achieve.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1806.07572", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Jacot et al. (2018) — NTK theorem: infinite-width limit = kernel regression" }, { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2012.04729", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Yang & Hu (2021) — maximal update parametrization enables feature learning beyond NTK" }, { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1312.6120", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Saxe et al. (2014) — linear networks learn via sequential SVD mode acquisition" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ntk-deep-learning-kernel-regression.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nucleation-two-step-protein-crystal", "title": "Two-step nucleation via a dense liquid precursor phase accounts for >50% of protein crystallization events, with classical nucleation theory underestimating rates by 3-7 orders of magnitude due to precursor-mediated barriers\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1063/1.1744102", "note": "Turnbull & Fisher (1949) - Rate of nucleation in condensed systems; CNT first-passage theory foundation", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Vekilov (2010) - The two-step mechanism of nucleation of crystals in solution; Nanoscale 2:2346 — dense liquid precursor", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Haas & Drenth (1999) - The protein-water phase diagram and the growth of protein crystals from an aqueous solution; J Phys Chem B 103:2808", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nucleation-two-step-protein-crystal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nucleation-two-step-spinodal", "title": "Classical nucleation theory fails by 10-20 orders of magnitude because nucleation in many systems proceeds via a two-step mechanism — initial spinodal decomposition to a dense disordered precursor phase, followed by crystallization within the precursor — and accounting for this pathway resolves the discrepancy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0908119107", "note": "Vekilov (2010) PNAS — two-step nucleation in protein crystallization; dense liquid precursor clusters observed by dynamic light scattering before crystal appearance; pathway lowers effective barrier.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1039/c1sc00447f", "note": "Gebauer et al. (2011) Chem Sci — pre-nucleation clusters in calcium carbonate; stable clusters form before critical nucleus, inconsistent with CNT.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nucleation-two-step-spinodal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-numerical-mantle-spectral-peaks-track-effective-rb-wavenumber-branches", "title": "In suites of published mantle-convection simulations where Ra and Pr are reported with rheological laws held fixed, spherical harmonic peaks of lateral kinetic energy will shift to higher ℓ when effective Ra enters branches predicted by high-Ra RB marginal-stability sketches — falsified if peaks remain invariant while Ra spans orders of magnitude because stiff lids decouple interior spectra.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.4, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.81.503", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "RB pattern formation provides qualitative expectation baseline" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-numerical-mantle-spectral-peaks-track-effective-rb-wavenumber-branches.yaml" }, { "id": "h-nussinov-energy-approximates-planar-graph-parsimony", "title": "For a curated viral RNA benchmark with experimentally resolved pseudoknots, restricted treewidth-k extensions will recover substantially more base pairs than pure planar DP at comparable runtime budgets.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.53, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1016/0022-2836(80)90363-8", "note": "Foundational planar DP view of RNA secondary structure" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1093/nar/9.1.133", "note": "Thermodynamic nearest-neighbor model layered on DP frameworks" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-nussinov-energy-approximates-planar-graph-parsimony.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ocean-color-chlorophyll-inversion-accuracy", "title": "A physics-based semi-analytic ocean color inversion algorithm trained on PACE hyperspectral bands (340–900 nm) will retrieve mixed-layer chlorophyll-a concentration with RMSE < 30% across open-ocean Case-1 waters, outperforming the OC4 band-ratio algorithm in all matchup comparisons at > 0.1 mg/m^3", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1029/JC093iC09p10909", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Gordon et al. (1988) — bio-optical model providing the physics basis for the inversion" }, { "doi": "10.1029/2001GB001428", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "O'Reilly et al. (1998) — OC4 algorithm performance baseline to be beaten" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Werdell et al. (2013) — generalized ocean color inversion model for retrieving marine inherent optical properties" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ocean-color-chlorophyll-inversion-accuracy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ohio-lyme-deer-management-intervention", "title": "Reducing white-tailed deer density below 15 deer/km² in Hocking Hills and Wayne National Forest areas of southeastern Ohio will reduce Ixodes scapularis nymphal tick density by >50% within 5 years, thereby reducing human Lyme disease risk in the region.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Daniels et al. (1993) demonstrated that deer exclusion fencing on Monhegan Island (Maine) reduced tick populations by >80% within 6 years — the strongest field evidence for the deer density threshold hypothesis.", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.ijpara.2008.01.014", "note": "Ogden et al. (2008) mathematical model of Ixodes scapularis population dynamics — deer density is the primary parameter controlling tick reproductive success and population growth.", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3201/eid2703.201994", "note": "Kugeler et al. (2021) shows tripling of Lyme disease incidence in areas of northward tick range expansion — consistent with deer-driven tick population establishment.", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Some models suggest white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), not deer, are the primary driver of Borrelia transmission to nymphal ticks — deer are important for adult tick reproduction but not for larval/nymphal Borrelia acquisition. If mice are the bottleneck, deer management alone may be insufficient.", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01159.x", "note": "Brunner et al. (2008) Hosts as ecological traps — white-footed mice are highly competent Borrelia reservoirs while deer are incompetent (dead-end hosts for Borrelia), complicating deer-only management strategies.", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ohio-lyme-deer-management-intervention.yaml" }, { "id": "h-onsager-machlup-loop-expansion-qft-thermal-field-theory", "title": "The loop expansion of stochastic path integrals around Onsager-Machlup saddle points is term-by-term identical to the loop expansion of the corresponding thermal quantum field theory (with ℏ → kT), providing a computationally tractable alternative to Feynman diagram perturbation theory for strongly-coupled systems where the saddle- point approximation breaks down.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Zinn-Justin (1989) textbook establishes formal identity between Onsager-Machlup path integral perturbation theory and Euclidean quantum field theory loop expansion at ℏ=kT; term-by-term equivalence holds to all orders for polynomial potentials", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Martin-Siggia-Rose (MSR) formalism provides the generating functional for stochastic dynamics that is formally identical to a quantum field theory action — verified in critical dynamics (Model A,B,C) near phase transitions", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "De Dominicis & Peliti (1978) established the response field functional equivalent to MSR; these are used in polymer physics and turbulence with direct QFT diagram technology", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-onsager-machlup-loop-expansion-qft-thermal-field-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-onsager-reciprocity-cross-price-elasticity-symmetry", "title": "Onsager reciprocity for coupled thermodynamic transport — L_ij = L_ji — maps exactly onto Slutsky symmetry of the compensated demand matrix in consumer theory, implying that violations of Slutsky symmetry in empirical demand data correspond to non-equilibrium market conditions with measurable entropy production rates\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/1907385", "note": "Samuelson (1960) — thermodynamic analogy in economics; equimarginal principle as equilibrium condition", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.physa.2007.01.042", "note": "Mimkes (2006) — thermodynamic formulation of economics; chemical potential as marginal utility", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/S0378-4371(99)00286-4", "note": "Foley (1994) — statistical equilibrium theory of markets; maximum entropy economic equilibrium", "confidence": 0.69 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-onsager-reciprocity-cross-price-elasticity-symmetry.yaml" }, { "id": "h-open-science-preregistration-replication-incentives", "title": "Sustainable open science adoption requires changing journal publication incentives to reward Registered Reports (preregistration before data collection) over outcome-contingent publication — current voluntary preregistration has low uptake because it penalises null results in tenure and funding decisions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.3000116", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Chambers et al. (2019) Registered Reports: journals using RR format show 50%+ null result publication rates vs. 5-10% in standard journals; effect sizes smaller on average, suggesting reduced publication bias.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41562-020-01013-y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Allen & Mehler (2019) meta-analysis: voluntary preregistration increases by field but <5% of published psychology experiments are preregistered; career incentives (impact factor) overwhelm good-practice preferences.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1098/rsos.160384", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Munafò et al. (2017) Manifesto for Reproducible Science: identifies incentive structure as root cause; proposes Registered Reports, open data mandates, and multi-site replication as systemic solutions.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-open-science-preregistration-replication-incentives.yaml" }, { "id": "h-optical-soliton-fiber-communication-stability", "title": "The fundamental optical soliton is the most stable carrier for high-bit-rate, long-haul fiber communication because its nonlinear self-correction provides inherent immunity to small dispersion perturbations, and soliton-based transmission should outperform linear NRZ modulation for fiber spans exceeding 5,000 km at bit rates above 40 Gbit/s", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.45.1095", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Mollenauer et al. (1980) - experimental observation of optical solitons" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mollenauer & Gordon (2006) - solitons in optical fiber communications: review" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Linear coherent DWDM (WDM transmission) now dominates commercially; soliton advantage is disputed for modern fiber types" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-optical-soliton-fiber-communication-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-optimal-transport-determines-city-structure-spatial-equilibrium", "title": "The spatial structure of cities (commuting patterns, residential sorting, land price gradients) is well-approximated by the solution to an optimal transport problem ΓÇö workers minimize expected commuting cost subject to housing supply constraints ΓÇö making Wasserstein distance between job and residence distributions a predictive measure of urban welfare and inequality.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Galichon & Salanie (2022): discrete choice models of job-residence matching are isomorphic to optimal transport problems ΓÇö equilibrium matching is equivalent to the solution of a linear program" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Ahlfeldt et al. (2015) ECMA: quantitative urban model for Berlin shows workers sort to minimize commuting cost subject to income and housing price constraints ΓÇö consistent with OT formulation" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Commuting zones in US metro areas show that average commute Wasserstein distance (job-to-residence distribution) strongly predicts intergenerational mobility (Chetty 2014) ΓÇö OT metric captures urban opportunity structure" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Actual commuting patterns show many long, inefficient commutes not consistent with OT solution ΓÇö amenities, schools, and social networks drive location choices beyond commuting cost minimization" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-optimal-transport-determines-city-structure-spatial-equilibrium.yaml" }, { "id": "h-optimal-transport-lineage-couplings-improve-fate-prediction-calibration", "title": "Cost-validated transport couplings improve held-out cell-fate calibration versus pseudotime-only baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Transport couplings can reconstruct developmental transitions.", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1773-3" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-optimal-transport-lineage-couplings-improve-fate-prediction-calibration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-optimal-transport-waddington-landscape-riemannian-geodesic", "title": "Waddington's epigenetic landscape is formally the Riemannian manifold of the 2-Wasserstein space restricted to the gene expression simplex, and cell fate decision points correspond to geodesically conjugate points where multiple W₂ geodesics first intersect — regions of positive Wasserstein curvature detectable from static single-cell RNA-seq snapshots.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2019.01.006", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Schiebinger et al. (2019) demonstrated W₂ OT recovers known developmental trajectories in iPSC reprogramming — qualitative validation" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-018-0414-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "La Manno et al. (2018) RNA velocity provides local velocity field consistent with geodesic interpretation in several lineages" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lott-Villani-Sturm theorem (2009): Riemannian manifolds with Ric ≥ K are characterised by W₂ curvature bounds — the mathematical framework for curvature in Wasserstein space is established" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-optimal-transport-waddington-landscape-riemannian-geodesic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-optimal-transport-x-machine-learning", "title": "Sliced Wasserstein distance with k = O(d log d) random projections achieves O(1/√d) approximation error relative to W₂ in d dimensions, making it computationally viable for high-dimensional generative model evaluation with strictly better mode-collapse detection than FID", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1701.07875", "note": "Arjovsky et al. — WGAN demonstrates W₁ captures mode diversity better than JS divergence", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Deshpande et al. (2019) — max-sliced Wasserstein distance; CVPR 2019", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-optimal-transport-x-machine-learning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-optogenetic-restoration-vision-scales-to-complex-percepts", "title": "Optogenetic vision restoration in retinitis pigmentosa will scale from detection of motion and high-contrast objects (demonstrated 2021) to recognition of faces and reading text within 5 years, as improved opsins (faster kinetics, red-shifted sensitivity), higher density transduction, and adaptive goggles are combined.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41591-021-01351-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Sahel et al. (2021): first human restored partial vision with ChrimsonR + amber goggles ΓÇö proof that the approach works" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "CNGB3 and PDE6B RP mutations respond well to AAV2 transduction of retinal ganglion cells ΓÇö gene therapy precedent (Maguire 2009 NEJM for RPE65)" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Soma-targeted ChrimsonR (soChrimsonR) achieves >100 Hz photocurrents at low light intensities ΓÇö faster kinetics needed for motion perception established in primate retina" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Retinal ganglion cell-targeted optogenetics bypasses the entire photoreceptor-bipolar processing chain ΓÇö the resulting percepts may be fundamentally limited in quality by lack of center-surround organization and spectral encoding" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-optogenetic-restoration-vision-scales-to-complex-percepts.yaml" }, { "id": "h-optogenetics-x-control-theory", "title": "Model predictive control with 10-step neural circuit prediction horizon achieves 3× better gamma oscillation control compared to proportional feedback control using ChR2 (τ_off = 10 ms), by compensating for actuator delay with state prediction from fitted Wilson-Cowan model", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nn.2512", "note": "Boyden et al. — ChR2 kinetics (τ_off ≈ 10 ms) sets fundamental bandwidth limit", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Grosenick et al. (2015) — closed-loop optogenetic control demonstrates PI control feasibility", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-optogenetics-x-control-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-orch-or-quantum-consciousness-decoherence-timescale-refutes", "title": "Direct measurement of quantum decoherence timescales in neuronal microtubules at 310 K will confirm Tegmark's theoretical prediction (~10⁻¹³ s), 10 orders of magnitude shorter than neural processing timescales (~10⁻³ s), falsifying the Penrose-Hameroff Orch-OR hypothesis that microtubule quantum coherence mediates conscious experience.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Tegmark (2000) Phys Rev E 61:4194 — theoretical decoherence time ~10⁻¹³ s for tubulin dimer superposition; quantum gravity effects negligible at this scale\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nphys2474", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Lambert et al. (2013) — established quantum biology systems (photosynthesis, magnetoreception) support coherence times of ~ps-ns, far shorter than neural timescales; consistent with decoherence argument\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.plrev.2013.08.002", "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Hameroff & Penrose (2014) — argue ordered water and topological protection extend coherence; no experimental confirmation; confidence low\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-orch-or-quantum-consciousness-decoherence-timescale-refutes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-order-book-square-root-impact-universal-liquidity", "title": "The square-root market impact law ΔP ∝ σ√(Q/V_daily) is a universal consequence of limit order book liquidity replenishment dynamics — independent of asset class, market, or time period — and deviations from the square-root scaling predict impending liquidity crises when the exponent drops below 0.5.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Almgren et al. (2005) J Risk — empirical confirmation of square root impact law for large institutional orders in US equities" }, { "doi": "10.1214/09-AAP682", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Cont et al. (2010) — LOB model with Poisson replenishment derives square root scaling from first principles" }, { "note": "Tóth et al. (2011) J Eur Econ Assoc — square root law across 16 equity markets and 1B trades; consistent with LOB model", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-order-book-square-root-impact-universal-liquidity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-organ-chip-multi-organ-body-on-chip-systemic-toxicity", "title": "A fluidically coupled 4-organ (liver-heart-lung-kidney) body-on-a-chip system will predict drug-induced systemic toxicity with higher accuracy than any single organ-on-a-chip or animal model because inter-organ metabolite exchange is required to reproduce the hepatic-cardiac toxicity cascade that causes 50% of late-stage clinical drug failures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1188302", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Huh et al. (2010) lung-on-chip demonstrated organ-level drug response — establishes OoC fidelity for single organs" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nbt.2989", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Bhatia & Ingber (2014) multi-organ chips review — preliminary evidence for enhanced systemic toxicity prediction" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-organ-chip-multi-organ-body-on-chip-systemic-toxicity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-organ-on-chip-predicts-drug-toxicity-better-than-animal-models", "title": "Human organ-on-chip systems (liver chip, kidney chip, gut chip) will predict human drug toxicity and pharmacokinetics more accurately than rodent animal models for a defined panel of drugs that failed in human trials due to organ toxicity ΓÇö a testable validation claim that could transform drug development.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Huh et al. (2010) Science: lung-on-chip reproduces IL-2 pulmonary edema and nanoparticle toxicity that animal models failed to predict ΓÇö landmark proof-of-principle" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Oleaga et al. (2016): multi-organ chip (liver + heart + muscle + nervous system) correctly identified 3 out of 4 toxic drugs in a blinded panel ΓÇö better than any single organ model" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "FDA Modernization Act 2.0 (2022) explicitly allows organ chip and organoid data to replace animal data in certain drug applications ΓÇö regulatory endorsement of the technology" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Current organ chips lack the immune system, systemic circulation, and microbiome of whole animals ΓÇö for drugs with immunotoxicity or metabolic activation by gut microbiome, predictions may be worse than animals" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-organ-on-chip-predicts-drug-toxicity-better-than-animal-models.yaml" }, { "id": "h-organic-template-polymorph-selection", "title": "Acidic shell proteins lower the interfacial energy of aragonite relative to calcite by a quantifiable amount predictable from protein charge density, enabling polymorph selection to be engineered via rational peptide design.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1039/a608571e", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Weiner & Addadi (1997) establish protein template role in polymorph control" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1231819", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Gal et al. (2013) show ACC precursor pathway in sea urchin polymorph selection" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-organic-template-polymorph-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-organoid-cortical-lamination-validity", "title": "Cerebral organoids recapitulate the transcriptional trajectory of human cortical development (neuroepithelium → radial glia → cortical neurons, inside-out lamination) but systematically fail to model areal specification and thalamic input because they lack vascularization and extrinsic instructive signals — making them valid models for cell-intrinsic developmental programs but not for circuit-level or areal questions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Lancaster et al. (2013) Nature 501:373 — original cerebral organoid paper", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Camp et al. (2015) Nature 523:344 — organoid transcriptome vs fetal cortex", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "note": "Birey et al. (2017) Nature 545:54 — assembloid approach for circuit modeling", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-organoid-cortical-lamination-validity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-origami-math-x-structural-engineering", "title": "Inverse origami design via adjoint-method optimization can find crease patterns achieving target stiffness tensors to within 5% error for any mechanically realizable target within the Miura-ori family, with solution uniqueness guaranteed when the target lies in the interior of the achievable stiffness manifold", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rspa.2015.0745", "note": "Schenk & Guest (2013) — Geometry of Miura-folded metamaterials; Poisson's ratio analysis", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Silverberg et al. (2014) — Using origami design principles to fold reprogrammable mechanical metamaterials; Science 345:647", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-origami-math-x-structural-engineering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-origami-robotic-fabrication-fold-complexity", "title": "Robotic origami fabrication using visual servoing and force-feedback control can reliably execute computationally-designed crease patterns with up to 1,000 creases, with fold-position error < 0.5 mm, enabling engineering-grade deployable structure fabrication from flat sheet metal at production scales currently achievable only by manual origami artists", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1805762115", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Stern et al. (2018) - self-folding origami complexity; limits of programmable matter" }, { "doi": "10.1145/2461912.2462004", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Demaine & Tachi (2013) - origamizer algorithm for 3D origami from computational fold design" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hawkes et al. (2010) - programmable matter by folding: programmable fold sequences" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-origami-robotic-fabrication-fold-complexity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ostrom-commons-multilateral-failure", "title": "Multilateral cooperation arrangements for global commons fail when they violate more than three of Ostrom's eight design principles simultaneously; the minimum sufficient set of principles for international commons governance requires monitoring, graduated sanctions, and recognition of rights to organize — and failure rate is predictable from which principles are absent.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511807763", "note": "Ostrom (1990) — Governing the Commons; 8 design principles derived from successful common pool resource governance; monitoring and sanctions central.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.302.5652.1907", "note": "Dietz, Ostrom & Stern (2003) — global commons governance review; principles generalise from local to international scale with additional complications.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1308372111", "note": "Cox, Arnold & Tomás (2010) — meta-analysis of 91 CPR case studies; validates Ostrom principles with quantified failure rates when principles are absent.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ostrom-commons-multilateral-failure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ostrom-design-principles-digital-commons", "title": "Ostrom's eight institutional design principles apply to digital commons with one systematic modification: boundary definition (principle 1) should be replaced by contribution-reputation systems that create functional membership boundaries without geographic or legal exclusion, and this reformulation will predict open-source project sustainability with > 75% accuracy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Ostrom (1990) Governing the Commons — original design principles", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1091015", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Dietz et al. (2003) Science 302:1907 — commons governance empirical tests" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.162.3859.1243", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Hardin (1968) Science 162:1243 — tragedy of the commons baseline" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ostrom-design-principles-digital-commons.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ot-barycenter-alignment-improves-cross-cohort-multiomic-risk-stratification", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-optimal-transport-barycenters-x-multiomic-patient-alignment` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Representation-transfer context motivating geometry-aware alignment objectives.", "doi": "10.1109/cvpr.2016.90" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ot-barycenter-alignment-improves-cross-cohort-multiomic-risk-stratification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ot-bias-correction-improves-tail-risk-calibration", "title": "OT-based downscaling improves calibration of high-quantile precipitation risk relative to quantile-mapping baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rsta.1922.0009", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Fisher (1922) estimation and information." }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0962492910000061", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Stuart (2010) Bayesian inverse-problem foundations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ot-bias-correction-improves-tail-risk-calibration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-outside-option-effect-causal-wage-effect", "title": "The outside option effect in wage bargaining is causal and quantitatively significant: workers who receive competing job offers capture 50-80% of the wage difference as a wage increase at their current employer, consistent with Nash bargaining theory in which the outside option shifts the disagreement point.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Caldwell & Danieli (2024): workers who list competing offers in salary negotiations obtain 18% higher wages on average — natural experiment using LinkedIn salary sharing data" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Maestas et al. (2023): broader labor market (lower unemployment) increases wage growth at individual level even conditional on own employment — consistent with improved outside option" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Bagger & Lentz (2019): structural estimation of wage-setting model confirms outside option (best alternative employer) determines a large share of within-job wage growth" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Selection bias: workers who receive outside offers may be higher productivity; causal identification requires quasi-experimental variation in offer receipt independent of worker quality" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-outside-option-effect-causal-wage-effect.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ozone-recovery-timeline-ssst-interaction", "title": "Antarctic ozone recovery to 1980 levels will occur by 2065-2070 for the spring column, but full recovery of the polar vortex ozone-loss altitude profile will lag by 10-15 years due to the residual stratospheric circulation response to past ODS loading, and warming-driven SST changes may partially offset CFC decline benefits before 2050.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aag2561", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "WMO/UNEP (2018) Scientific Assessment: stratospheric ODS declining at expected rate; September ozone column showing upward trend since 2000 of ~1-3% per decade; full column recovery to 1980 projected 2060-2070.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1029/2019GL083226", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Ball et al. (2018) show ozone depletion continues in lower stratosphere (below 25 km) despite upper stratosphere recovery — total column may recover while lower stratosphere remains depleted.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-020-2528-5", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Banerjee et al. (2020) attribute ozone-hole-driven changes in Southern Hemisphere circulation to CFC decline; recovery alters jet stream position and precipitation patterns.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ozone-recovery-timeline-ssst-interaction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-p-vs-np-algebraic-geometry-barrier-v2", "title": "Algebraic geometry and geometric complexity theory (GCT, Mulmuley & Sohoni) provides the most promising current framework for P≠NP separation through polynomial permanent vs determinant orbit closure complexity, but faces fundamental barriers including the symmetry hypothesis (SH) requiring new techniques in invariant theory beyond current capabilities", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/1374376.1374428", "note": "Mulmuley & Sohoni (2001) — Geometric complexity theory I; J ACM 54:26", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/1374376.1374428", "note": "Aaronson (2016) — P vs NP survey; complexity blog; natural proofs barrier (Razborov & Rudich)", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Burgisser et al. (2011) — Algebraic complexity theory; overview of determinant permanent complexity", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-p-vs-np-algebraic-geometry-barrier-v2.yaml" }, { "id": "h-p-vs-np-algebraic-geometry-barrier", "title": "The P≠NP conjecture will not be resolved by purely combinatorial or information- theoretic arguments; resolution requires fundamentally new algebraic geometry or quantum-information theoretic tools, because all known lower bound techniques (natural proofs, algebrization, relativization) are blocked by known barriers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/3357713.3384258", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Razborov & Rudich (1994) - natural proofs barrier rules out large class of combinatorial techniques" }, { "doi": "10.4086/toc.2009.v005a001", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Aaronson & Wigderson (2009) - algebrization barrier: algebraic oracle separations maintain" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Mulmuley (2012) - Geometric Complexity Theory: algebraic geometry approach to P vs NP via orbit closure problems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-p-vs-np-algebraic-geometry-barrier.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pagerank-spectral-gap-spam-detection", "title": "The spectral gap of the Google matrix, not alpha, is the fundamental parameter controlling PageRank spam resistance; link farms create near-zero spectral gap exploits predictable from Markov chain theory\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0169-7552(98)00110-X", "note": "Brin & Page (1998) - PageRank via Markov chain stationary distribution; teleportation ensures irreducibility", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Langville & Meyer (2006) - Google's PageRank and Beyond; spectral analysis of Google matrix convergence", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Lempel & Moran (2001) - SALSA vs PageRank; hub/authority decomposition sensitive to link farm manipulation", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pagerank-spectral-gap-spam-detection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pain-gate-parvalbumin-interneuron-molecular", "title": "The inhibitory \"gate\" in Melzack-Wall gate control theory of pain is molecularly implemented by parvalbumin-expressing glycinergic interneurons in lamina II (substantia gelatinosa) of the dorsal horn, whose activity is suppressed by C-fiber input (opening the gate) and enhanced by Aβ-fiber tactile input (closing the gate).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Melzack & Wall (1965) Science 150:971 — original gate control theory", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "note": "Abraira et al. (2017) Cell 171:996 — dorsal horn interneuron circuit mapping", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "note": "Foster et al. (2015) Neuron 87:422 — inhibitory circuits in pain gating", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pain-gate-parvalbumin-interneuron-molecular.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pain-sex-difference-microglia-spinal-cord", "title": "Sex differences in chronic pain prevalence (2:1 female:male ratio) are mechanistically driven by sexually dimorphic spinal cord microglia: male rodents use microglia-dependent P2X4→BDNF→KCC2 signaling for pain sensitization, while females use T-cell-mediated and astrocytic pathways, predicting differential responses to microglia-targeting analgesics", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.86, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aab1010", "note": "Sorge et al. (2015) — Spinal cord microglia sex differences in pain; Nature Neurosci", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2016.08.029", "note": "Mapplebeck et al. (2016) — Sex differences in pain across the lifespan; Neuron", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/s41591-019-0494-2", "note": "Doyle et al. (2019) — Spinal mechanisms of sex differences in chronic pain; Nat Rev Neurosci", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pain-sex-difference-microglia-spinal-cord.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pain-sex-difference-microglia-spinal", "title": "Sex differences in pain sensitivity arise from sexually dimorphic spinal cord microglia: in males, spinal microglia amplify pain via P38-MAPK signaling (required for central sensitization), while females use a T-cell-mediated alternative pathway; this predicts that microglial inhibitors should be analgesic in males but not females.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aab1318", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Sorge et al. (2015) Science - spinal microglia required for mechanical pain in males not females; minocycline sex-specific analgesic" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41593-019-0417-0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Mapplebeck et al. (2019) - T cells required for spinal sensitization in female mice" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Bartley & Fillingim (2013) - sex differences in experimental and clinical pain: meta-analysis" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pain-sex-difference-microglia-spinal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pancharatnam-loop-area-predicts-interferometric-phase-shifts", "title": "In a wave-plate polarization interferometer, measured Pancharatnam-Berry phase shifts will scale with signed loop area on the Poincare sphere within 5 percent after loss calibration; falsified if residuals remain dominated by unmodeled dynamical phase.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.37, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1984.0023", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Berry (1984) quantum phase factors accompanying adiabatic changes." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pancharatnam-loop-area-predicts-interferometric-phase-shifts.yaml" }, { "id": "h-paradigm-shift-anomaly-accumulation-detectable", "title": "Kuhnian paradigm shifts are preceded by a detectable acceleration in anomaly-reporting publications and citation network fragmentation in the 3-10 years before the paradigm shift, identifiable retrospectively using science-of-science bibliometric methods and potentially predictable prospectively with 5-7 year lead time.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.64, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s11192-012-0893-0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Chen et al. (2009) CiteSpace analysis: citation bursts and network structural holes predict paradigm-shifting papers; pre-shift period shows increased modularity in citation networks (fragmentation).\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1800471115", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Funk & Owen-Smith (2017) CD index (consolidating vs. disrupting): disruptive papers cluster temporally before field-level paradigm shifts in physics and biomedicine — detectable retrospectively.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-022-05543-x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Park et al. (2023) find declining disruption in science (falling CD index); suggests anomaly accumulation patterns are changing due to publication pressure — threatens prospective detection.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-paradigm-shift-anomaly-accumulation-detectable.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pareto-exponent-growth-redistribution-ratio", "title": "The Pareto exponent α of top-income distributions across OECD countries satisfies the Bouchaud-Mezard prediction α ≈ 1 + r/(g - r), where r is the effective redistribution rate (taxes and transfers as fraction of GDP) and g is the top-1% income growth rate, with this functional form fitting better than linear regression on redistribution rate alone\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0378-4371(00)00205-3", "note": "Bouchaud & Mezard (2000) — derives the formula α = 1 + r/(g-r) from a multiplicative stochastic process with redistribution; theoretical foundation\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.physrep.2014.11.001", "note": "Yakovenko & Rosser (2009) — empirical α values for 70+ countries; provides the dependent variable for testing the formula\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju004", "note": "Piketty & Saez (2014) QJE — documents α changes over time without testing the Bouchaud-Mezard functional form; shows that political institutions, not just r and g, affect inequality (potential confounder)\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pareto-exponent-growth-redistribution-ratio.yaml" }, { "id": "h-partial-correlation-fmri-direct-connectivity", "title": "Partial correlations estimated by graphical lasso from resting-state fMRI are more accurate indicators of direct structural connectivity than full correlations, with optimal regularization parameter λ determined by cross-validation against diffusion tractography rather than statistical criteria, and graph Laplacian regularization outperforms standard graphical lasso for brain network topology", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuroimage.2013.04.038", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Smith et al. (2013) - comparison of functional connectivity methods against known ground truth" }, { "doi": "10.1093/biostatistics/kxm045", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Friedman et al. (2008) - graphical lasso; precision matrix estimation" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Friston (2011) - functional and effective connectivity: direct comparison shows full correlation often more reproducible" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-partial-correlation-fmri-direct-connectivity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pcm-microencapsulation-enables-chiplet-thermal-buffering", "title": "Microencapsulated phase-change materials integrated into chiplet packaging layers can buffer transient thermal spikes exceeding 5× steady-state power by absorbing latent heat, reducing peak junction temperature by >15°C without increasing steady-state thermal resistance", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.rser.2009.01.003", "note": "Sharma et al. (2009) — PCM thermal properties; paraffin latent heat 200-250 J/g at 37-80°C — sufficient for transient buffering", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1115/1.1616917", "note": "Bar-Cohen et al. (2003) — high heat flux electronics; transient spikes identified as key cooling challenge", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Raghavan et al. (2018) — PCM for electronic cooling: transient thermal management, IEEE CPMT 8:1291", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pcm-microencapsulation-enables-chiplet-thermal-buffering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-peaks-over-threshold-models-improve-amr-outbreak-early-warning", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-extreme-value-theory-x-antimicrobial-resistance-surveillance` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Classical extreme-value limit theory.", "doi": "10.1214/aoms/1177731924" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-peaks-over-threshold-models-improve-amr-outbreak-early-warning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-peatland-carbon-water-table-tipping-point", "title": "Tropical and boreal peatland carbon vulnerability is controlled by a nonlinear water table threshold: drainage below 30-40 cm triggers aerobic decomposition that transforms peatlands from carbon sinks to sources, releasing up to 5 Pg C per 1°C of warming in vulnerable peatlands when combined with fire.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41558-019-0394-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Dargie et al. (2019) and Huissteden (2020): Congo Basin peatlands store 29 Pg C; drainage experiments show CO2 flux doubles when water table drops below 30 cm and CO2/CH4 ratio shifts dramatically above the aerobic/ anaerobic transition.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aaw4295", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Ribeiro et al. (2021) synthesis: tropical peatland fire events driven by El Niño droughts release 0.2-2.1 Pg C per event in Indonesian peatlands alone; water table decline below 40 cm is the ignition predictor.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1462-y", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Turetsky et al. (2019) review permafrost peat: thaw-lake expansion and thermokarst formation release ancient peat carbon; water table changes drive CH4 vs CO2 balance.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-peatland-carbon-water-table-tipping-point.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pecora-carroll-synchronization-noise-tolerance-lyapunov", "title": "The maximum tolerable coupling noise amplitude for Pecora-Carroll synchronization scales as |λ_max^CLE|^(1/2), so systems with strongly negative conditional Lyapunov exponents are exponentially more noise-tolerant and suitable for engineering implementations in noisy environments\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pecora-carroll-synchronization-noise-tolerance-lyapunov.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pem-membrane-beyond-nafion-high-temperature", "title": "Non-PFSA proton exchange membranes operating at 120–200°C without external humidification will achieve proton conductivities >100 mS/cm and lifetimes >40,000 hours, enabling PEM electrolysers and fuel cells to operate at higher efficiency and lower cost than Nafion-based systems\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Polybenzimidazole (PBI) membranes doped with H₃PO₄ operate at 160–200°C with conductivity 50–100 mS/cm and excellent chemical stability; demonstrated in Serenergy H3-350 fuel cell systems." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "High-temperature operation reduces CO poisoning of Pt catalyst (from <10 ppm at 80°C to >1000 ppm at 160°C), enabling use of lower-purity H₂ — a major cost advantage." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "H₃PO₄-doped PBI membranes suffer acid leaching under liquid water contact; hybrid high-T/low-T systems have not achieved the lifetime targets required for automotive (>5000 h) or stationary (>40,000 h) applications." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pem-membrane-beyond-nafion-high-temperature.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pension-ndcdc-reform-sustainability", "title": "Notional defined contribution (NDC) pension systems are demographically robust to aging shocks without requiring benefit cuts or contribution hikes, because automatic balancing mechanisms absorb longevity risk — and the Swedish NDC model provides the strongest evidence for this hypothesis.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Palmer (2006) NDC: the new pension orthodoxy — Sweden's NDC maintained solvency through 2000–2008 demographic/financial stress without emergency legislation", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Holzmann et al. (2012) NDC countries (Sweden, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Norway) show lower unfunded liability growth than DB countries post-aging", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Barr & Diamond (2009) NDC shifts longevity risk fully to retirees; distributional consequences vs. DB uncertain in heterogeneous mortality settings", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pension-ndcdc-reform-sustainability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-perceptual-binding-gamma-oscillations", "title": "Perceptual binding of features processed in different cortical areas is mediated by gamma-band (40-80 Hz) synchronization between areas, with binding failures (such as illusory conjunctions) corresponding to reduced inter-area gamma coherence measurable by MEG in temporal windows < 100 ms after stimulus onset.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1320081111", "note": "Singer & Gray (1995) — gamma oscillations and visual feature binding; synchronous firing between V1 and V4 for features belonging to same object.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2009.09.007", "note": "Roelfsema et al. (2004) — gamma binding hypothesis remains contested; some experiments show binding without gamma synchrony; alternative: routing hypothesis via alpha-beta suppression of irrelevant channels.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-perceptual-binding-gamma-oscillations.yaml" }, { "id": "h-perceptual-binding-gamma-synchrony-thalamus", "title": "Perceptual feature binding is achieved by synchronised gamma-band oscillations (40 Hz) coordinated through thalamo-cortical loops, not by convergent anatomical projections to a single binding area", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/338334a0", "note": "Gray & Singer (1989) — gamma synchrony and binding in visual cortex", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2007.09.028", "note": "Womelsdorf et al. (2007) — modulation of neural interactions through gamma band synchrony", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2009.06.004", "note": "Ray & Maunsell (2010) — narrowband gamma synchrony unreliable across tasks", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-perceptual-binding-gamma-synchrony-thalamus.yaml" }, { "id": "h-percolation-aware-combination-selection-delays-resistance-network-percolation", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-percolation-thresholds-x-antimicrobial-combination-therapy-networks` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Percolation threshold formalism for network connectivity transitions.", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.58.R5257" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-percolation-aware-combination-selection-delays-resistance-network-percolation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-percolation-herd-immunity-heterogeneous-networks", "title": "The herd immunity threshold predicted by bond percolation on empirically measured contact networks (using POLYMOD degree distributions) matches observed epidemic final sizes within 5 percentage points, outperforming the classic homogeneous-mixing 1 - 1/R0 formula for pathogens with R0 > 3.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128", "note": "Newman (2002) — percolation-epidemic equivalence on networks" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-percolation-herd-immunity-heterogeneous-networks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-percolation-outbreak-threshold", "title": "Percolation finite-size scaling corrections reduce R_0 estimation error by >30% in institutional outbreaks (N < 10,000), and the correction exponent matches the random-graph percolation universality class (nu = 1).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128", "note": "Newman (2002) proves the mathematical equivalence — FSS must apply if the equivalence holds" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "COVID-19 nursing home outbreaks (US, UK, France 2020) provide hundreds of natural experiments with N=50 to N=500, known attack rates, and documented case counts. If FSS correction is real, the corrected R_0 estimates should be more consistent across facilities than the uncorrected estimates — a testable pattern in the published outbreak reports.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Contact networks in institutions may be sufficiently heterogeneous (staff hub nodes) that the random-graph FSS formula (nu=1) does not apply — the system may be in a different universality class or crossover regime where FSS corrections are much smaller or larger than predicted. Only empirical validation can distinguish these cases.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-percolation-outbreak-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-percolation-threshold-x-polymer-gelation", "title": "Joint finite-size scaling fits of rheologically inferred gel points with bond-percolation simulations on chemistry-aware graphs will collapse deviations onto a single scaling window when cyclization is parameterized per monomer class — falsifying universal lattice criticality absent loop corrections.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.52, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.41.574", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Percolation finite-size scaling toolkit applicable near thresholds" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-percolation-threshold-x-polymer-gelation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-peridynamic-models-predict-bone-microdamage-hotspots-before-radiographic-failure", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-peridynamics-nonlocal-fracture-x-bone-microdamage-remodeling` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Peridynamic fracture modeling.", "doi": "10.1007/s00466-007-0170-5" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-peridynamic-models-predict-bone-microdamage-hotspots-before-radiographic-failure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-permafrost-abrupt-thaw-dominates", "title": "Abrupt thermokarst processes (retrogressive thaw slumps, abrupt lake drainage) contribute more than 50% of total permafrost carbon release to the atmosphere by 2100, despite affecting less than 5% of permafrost area, because of their disproportionate rate of deep carbon mobilization.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Turetsky et al. (2020, Nature Geoscience) estimated that abrupt thaw processes could double previous permafrost carbon feedback estimates by releasing old (>10 ka) deep carbon unavailable to gradual thaw, potentially adding 60–100 Pg C by 2100.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Retrogressive thaw slumps have increased in area by 60% in Northwest Canada since 1984 (Lantuit & Pollard 2008); their carbon flux per unit area exceeds gradual thaw by 10–100x due to deep exposure.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The fraction of abruptly thawed carbon that is actually labile (vs. recalcitrant old organic matter) is uncertain; some studies show 50–70% of old permafrost carbon is slowly decomposable only on century timescales even when exposed.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-permafrost-abrupt-thaw-dominates.yaml" }, { "id": "h-permafrost-carbon-tipping-2point5", "title": "A 2.5 degree Celsius global mean warming threshold triggers irreversible permafrost degradation releasing over 200 Gt of carbon by 2200 in a self-sustaining feedback", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Earth system models show permafrost carbon feedback acceleration above 2C" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14338", "note": "Permafrost carbon pool and vulnerability assessment (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.25, "note": "Model uncertainty in talik formation rates spans an order of magnitude" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-permafrost-carbon-tipping-2point5.yaml" }, { "id": "h-perovskite-degradation-ion-migration", "title": "The dominant degradation mechanism limiting perovskite solar cell lifetime is halide ion migration driven by the built-in field and light-induced carrier gradients, which segregates I⁻ from Br⁻ at interfaces and forms local regions of high non-radiative recombination; suppressing ion migration through lattice rigidity at grain boundaries via 2D/3D passivation is the rate-limiting intervention for achieving >20-year lifetime.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aah5583", "note": "Eames et al. (2015) — DFT calculation of I⁻ and MA⁺ migration barriers in MAPbI3; I⁻ activation energy ~0.6 eV consistent with observed ion migration timescales.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41563-018-0094-5", "note": "Wang et al. (2019) — light-induced halide segregation in mixed-halide perovskites; Br-rich phases form at grain boundaries under illumination; reverses in dark.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1021/acsenergylett.1c00157", "note": "Lin et al. (2021) — 2D/3D heterostructure perovskites; reduced halide migration at grain boundaries extends operational stability to 1000 hrs; mechanism identified as lattice rigidification.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-perovskite-degradation-ion-migration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-persistence-based-features-improve-active-catalyst-hit-rate-in-high-throughput-screening", "title": "Transferred methods from `b-topological-data-analysis-x-catalyst-state-space-screening` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Persistent homology stability theorem.", "doi": "10.1007/s10208-008-9025-5" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-persistence-based-features-improve-active-catalyst-hit-rate-in-high-throughput-screening.yaml" }, { "id": "h-persistent-h1-betti-curves-predict-material-failure-earlier-than-stress-thresholds", "title": "Persistent H1 Betti trajectories forecast imminent material failure earlier than stress-threshold heuristics.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.66, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s00454-002-2885-2", "note": "Persistent homology foundations.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-persistent-h1-betti-curves-predict-material-failure-earlier-than-stress-thresholds.yaml" }, { "id": "h-persistent-h1-rise-precedes-afib-onset", "title": "A sustained rise in H1 persistence from RR-interval embeddings precedes atrial-fibrillation onset in ambulatory monitoring.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1102826108", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Nicolau et al. (2011) topology-based biomedical subgroup discovery." }, { "doi": "10.1090/bull/1506", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Carlsson (2009) topology and data overview." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-persistent-h1-rise-precedes-afib-onset.yaml" }, { "id": "h-persistent-homology-allosteric-prediction", "title": "Persistent homology H1 generators (loops) in protein contact networks identify allosteric communication pathways with sensitivity exceeding perturbation-response scanning and mutual information methods\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41598-020-67423-w", "note": "Xia & Wei (2020) - Persistent homology for protein structure; H0, H1, H2 encode structural class with >90% accuracy", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Amor et al. (2022) - Persistence homology analysis of protein conformation ensembles; persistence identifies allosteric coupling in kinases", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Greener & Thornton (2022) - AlphaFold2 structures for allosteric site prediction; topological methods outperform cavity analysis", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-persistent-homology-allosteric-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-persister-optimal-dosing-markov", "title": "Antibiotic dosing intervals optimised to the persister resuscitation rate beta (dosing every 1/beta hours to catch cells as they exit dormancy) will reduce recurrent infection rates by at least 50% compared to standard fixed-interval dosing in controlled in vitro biofilm experiments with clinical S. aureus isolates.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1099538", "note": "Balaban et al. (2004) - persister switching model; switching rates determine optimal dosing window", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nrmicro2543", "note": "Lewis (2010) - persister cell review; discusses dosing interval strategies", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-persister-optimal-dosing-markov.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pes-elite-capture-indigenous-displacement-monitoring-prevention", "title": "Payments for Ecosystem Services programs in tropical forest countries show measurable elite capture (>30% of payments flowing to non-subsistence landowners in the top income quintile) that can be reduced by ≥50% through community-based monitoring with community verification of additionality requirements.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Grieg-Gran et al. (2005) World Dev 33:1685 — review of PES schemes in Costa Rica, Mexico, Bolivia: elite capture documented in all cases; wealthier landowners more likely to participate (land titles required), indigenous communities excluded by lack of formal tenure", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Leach et al. (2012) Environ Sci Policy 16:14 — systematic review: PES displacement of indigenous communities documented in Mexico (PSA-H program), China (Sloping Land Conversion), and Costa Rica; formal property rights requirements are the primary exclusion mechanism", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Wunder et al. (2018) Ecol Econ 150:31 — meta-analysis of 108 PES evaluations: average additionality is positive (PES does reduce deforestation) and approximately one-third of payments reach smallholders; elite capture is real but not universal and depends on program design", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ferraro & Kiss (2002) Science 298:1718 — direct payments more effective than integrated conservation-development projects for reducing deforestation — but effectiveness at reaching poor communities (vs. wealthier landowners with larger deforestation opportunity costs) not demonstrated", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pes-elite-capture-indigenous-displacement-monitoring-prevention.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phage-ejection-force-osmotic-mechanism", "title": "More than 70% of bacteriophage lambda DNA ejection force is attributable to osmotic pressure from confined DNA, with electrostatic and entropic contributions each below 20%, as measurable by systematic osmotic suppression experiments with PEG solutions of varying molecular weight.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0006-3495(01)75940-2", "note": "Tzlil et al. (2003) — osmotic pressure model for viral DNA packaging and release" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phage-ejection-force-osmotic-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phage-therapy-combination-delays-resistance-evolution-eskape", "title": "Phage-antibiotic combination therapy (PAC) will suppress resistance evolution in ESKAPE pathogens beyond either component alone ΓÇö because phage resistance mutations (receptor loss) restore antibiotic susceptibility via evolutionary trade-offs ΓÇö making PAC a self-sterilizing therapeutic strategy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Chan et al. (2016) Science Translational Medicine: phage-antibiotic strategy in P. aeruginosa ΓÇö phage resistance mutations in lipopolysaccharide restore colistin sensitivity; first demonstration of evolutionary trade-off exploitation" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Torres-Barcelo & Hochberg (2016): phage + antibiotic combinations show super-additive killing in multiple ESKAPE pathogens in vitro; phage sensitizes bacteria to antibiotics" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Schooley et al. (2017) Antimicrob Agents Chemother: first documented successful phage therapy for MDR Acinetobacter baumannii endocarditis ΓÇö combination with antibiotics was key to success" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Phage-antibiotic synergy is not universal ΓÇö depends on specific phage-host pair and antibiotic mechanism; for some combinations, phage resistance does not restore antibiotic sensitivity" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phage-therapy-combination-delays-resistance-evolution-eskape.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phase-response-adaptive-dbs-reduces-off-target-neural-entrainment", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-phase-response-curves-x-adaptive-deep-brain-stimulation-timing` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Oscillation phase-response analysis groundwork for controlled perturbations.", "doi": "10.1007/BF00337259" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phase-response-adaptive-dbs-reduces-off-target-neural-entrainment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phonon-engineering-nanoscale-interfaces", "title": "Phonon dispersion engineering via periodic nanoscale interfaces (phononic crystals with period L = 5-50 nm) can achieve near-zero thermal conductivity κ < 0.5 W/mK in crystalline silicon while maintaining electron mobility > 100 cm²/Vs, by creating a phonon bandgap in the 1-10 THz frequency range that dominates heat transport but is below the electron de Broglie wavelength.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nnanotechnology.2010.149", "note": "Yu et al. (2010) — phonon engineering in silicon nanowires; roughness-induced phonon scattering reduces κ by 100× vs bulk while maintaining electrical conductivity.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1063/1.1524305", "note": "Cahill et al. (2003) — review of thermal transport in nanostructures; interface density is the key design parameter for phonon mean free path control.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phonon-engineering-nanoscale-interfaces.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phonon-glass-electron-crystal-zt-optimization", "title": "The phonon glass-electron crystal (PGEC) design strategy — maximizing ZT by engineering phonon mean free path distributions via nanostructured interfaces while maintaining electron coherence — can achieve ZT > 3 at room temperature in layered chalcogenide superlattices with optimized interface periodicity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nmat2090", "note": "Snyder & Toberer (2008) Nat Mater — PGEC concept and survey of high-ZT materials; ZT ≈ 2.6 achieved in PbSeTe quantum dot superlattices.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1063/1.1524305", "note": "Cahill et al. (2003) J Appl Phys — thermal conductivity of nanostructures and interfaces; minimum thermal conductivity in amorphous solids sets baseline for phonon engineering.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1243, 26", "note": "Biswas et al. (2012) Nature — hierarchical nanostructuring in PbTe achieves ZT ≈ 2.2 by scattering phonons at multiple length scales.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phonon-glass-electron-crystal-zt-optimization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phonon-mfp-spectrum-thermal-conductivity-engineering", "title": "A bimodal grain-size distribution in polycrystalline thermoelectrics—with grain sizes targeting the two peaks of the phonon mean-free-path spectrum— will reduce κ_L by >60% relative to the single-grain-size optimum while reducing electrical conductivity by <15%.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.185901", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Broido – first-principles MFP spectrum for Si shows bimodal structure; suggests bimodal targeting" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41578-018-0018-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Snyder & Toberer – nanostructuring strategies for ZT enhancement in thermoelectrics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phonon-mfp-spectrum-thermal-conductivity-engineering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phononic-crystal-piezoelectric-tuning-topological", "title": "A phononic crystal with piezoelectric inclusions can undergo a topological phase transition (trivial to topological band gap) by application of a bias voltage of < 100V, producing a switchable topologically protected acoustic edge mode; this requires piezoelectric strain of only epsilon > 0.1% to shift the Zak phase from 0 to pi, achievable with PZT-5A inclusions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nphys2522", "note": "Huber (2016) - topological mechanics; topological acoustic states concept", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.289.5485.1734", "note": "Liu et al. (2000) - locally resonant materials; band gap control", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phononic-crystal-piezoelectric-tuning-topological.yaml" }, { "id": "h-photocatalysis-x-semiconductor-physics", "title": "Surface overpotential (not bulk recombination) is the dominant efficiency limiter in BiVO4 photocatalysts for water oxidation, and deposition of a 2 nm CoOx overlayer reduces overpotential by >300 mV while increasing the quantum yield for O2 evolution by more than 10-fold.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1021/cr0001831", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Hoffmann et al. (1995) - surface kinetics identified as key limitation for TiO2 photocatalysis" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kim & Choi (2014) - effect of surface treatment on BiVO4 photoanodes; CoOx cocatalyst increases photocurrent 5-fold", "confidence": 0.81 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kudo & Miseki (2009) - Z-scheme systems: surface kinetics improvement by cocatalysts is primary efficiency lever", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-photocatalysis-x-semiconductor-physics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-photon-antibunching-sub-poissonian", "title": "Hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) defect emitters coupled to photonic crystal cavities will simultaneously achieve g⁽²⁾(0) < 0.05 and Hong-Ou-Mandel visibility > 80% at room temperature when cavity Purcell factor exceeds 30", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature01086", "note": "Santori et al. (2002) first demonstrated indistinguishable photons from quantum dots", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Toth et al. (2019) Single photon emitters in hexagonal boron nitride; arXiv:1904.02283", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-photon-antibunching-sub-poissonian.yaml" }, { "id": "h-photonic-fusion-based-fault-tolerant-qc", "title": "Fusion-based linear optical quantum computing (FBQC, Bartolucci et al. 2023) can achieve fault-tolerant quantum computation with photon loss rates < 10% by replacing two-qubit gates with probabilistic Bell-state measurements and encoding logical qubits in resource states, making photonic QC scalable without deterministic photon-photon interactions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Bartolucci et al. (2023) Nat Commun 14:912 — fusion-based quantum computation", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "note": "Knill et al. (2001) Nature 409:46 — KLM linear optical quantum computing", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "note": "Rudolph (2017) APL Photonics 2:030901 — photonic QC roadmap", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-photonic-fusion-based-fault-tolerant-qc.yaml" }, { "id": "h-photoreceptor-quantum-efficiency-x-photon-statistics", "title": "Intrinsic gain variability in the phototransduction cascade (not thermal dark noise) limits single-photon detection SNR in primate rods, and reducing transducin copy number variance by 2-fold would improve SNR by >50% based on a shot-noise-limited cascade model.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1232602", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Rieke & Baylor (1998) - reproducibility of rod responses; gain variability identified as key noise source" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Whitlock & Lamb (1999) - variability of the time course of single-photon responses; Neuron 23:337", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Burns & Pugh (2010) - rhodopsin deactivation as the source of response variability; IOVS 51:1450", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-photoreceptor-quantum-efficiency-x-photon-statistics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-phylogenetics-x-coalescent-theory", "title": "Ancestral recombination graph inference from UK Biobank whole-genome sequences will reveal a European population bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago) with effective population size below 1,000 individuals, detectable as an acceleration in coalescent rate\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/0304-4149(82)90011-4", "note": "Kingman (1982) - The coalescent; Stochastic Processes and their Applications 13:235", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kelleher et al. (2019) - Inferring whole-genome histories in large population datasets; Nature Genetics 51:1330; doi:10.1038/s41588-019-0483-y", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-phylogenetics-x-coalescent-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-piezoelectricity-symmetry-breaking", "title": "High-throughput DFT screening of non-centrosymmetric perovskite and double-perovskite structures from the ICSD will identify at least 5 lead-free compositions with predicted d_33 > 300 pC/N, of which at least 2 will be experimentally confirmed", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.77.1083", "note": "Rabe et al. (2007) first-principles approach to ferroelectrics", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Materials Project database — DFT-computed properties for 140k+ compounds including symmetry analysis", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-piezoelectricity-symmetry-breaking.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pink1-parkin-mitophagy-parkinsons-therapeutic-target", "title": "Enhancing PINK1-Parkin mitophagy flux in dopaminergic neurons will slow or arrest the progression of Parkinson's disease by clearing damaged mitochondria before they trigger neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nrm.2017.58", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "PINK1 and Parkin mutations cause familial PD; PINK1-KO mice develop mitochondrial dysfunction and dopaminergic neuron loss — supports causal role of mitophagy failure" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Urolithin A (natural mitophagy inducer) extends lifespan in C. elegans and improves muscle function in humans (Ryu 2016 Nature Medicine) — proof of concept for mitophagy enhancement" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Kinetin (PINK1 kinase activator) rescues mitochondrial morphology in PD patient iPSC-derived neurons; Phase I trial ongoing" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Sporadic PD (>90% of cases) may have PINK1/Parkin-independent mitochondrial dysfunction; therapeutic benefit may be limited to familial PINK1/Parkin-mutant subgroup" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pink1-parkin-mitophagy-parkinsons-therapeutic-target.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pino-aftershock-fields-improve-short-term-seismic-hazard-maps", "title": "PINO aftershock field models improve short-term seismic hazard map reliability over ETAS-only baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2111.03794", "note": "Physics-informed neural operator methodology.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pino-aftershock-fields-improve-short-term-seismic-hazard-maps.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pitting-corrosion-passive-film-breakdown", "title": "Passive film breakdown initiating pitting corrosion occurs through halide ion adsorption-induced dissolution of the outermost oxide layer at surface defect sites (grain boundaries, MnS inclusions), creating a local pH drop that prevents repassivation — the metastable pit threshold potential E_pit is set by the MnS inclusion dissolution kinetics, not the oxide film itself.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Suter et al. (2001) in situ STM of stainless steel passive film in Cl⁻: film thins locally at MnS inclusions — 10× dissolution rate vs. matrix", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ryan et al. (2002) MnS dissolution in 0.1M NaCl: local pH drop to <2 at 10μm scale — prevents repassivation below E_pit", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Frankel (1998) pitting corrosion review: metastable pit statistics follow Gumbel extreme value distribution — consistent with defect nucleation model", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pitting-corrosion-passive-film-breakdown.yaml" }, { "id": "h-place-attachment-mediates-conservation-behavior-more-than-vbn", "title": "Place attachment (emotional bond to specific natural places from direct experience) predicts pro-environmental behavior more strongly than the value-belief-norm pathway, and nature experience programs increase conservation behavior through place attachment rather than environmental knowledge", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1177/0013916599316004", "note": "Kals et al. (1999) — Emotional affinity toward nature predicts conservation behavior beyond rational factors; place attachment path", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/0022-4537.00175", "note": "Stern (2000) — VBN theory; attitude-behavior gap acknowledged; place attachment not included in the model", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Nisbet et al. (2009) — Nature relatedness: linking individuals' connection with nature to environmental concern and motivation, Environ Behav 41:715", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-place-attachment-mediates-conservation-behavior-more-than-vbn.yaml" }, { "id": "h-placebo-endogenous-opioid-dlpfc-pad", "title": "Placebo analgesia is mediated by top-down descending inhibition: expectation of pain relief activates dorsolateral prefrontal cortex → PAG → spinal cord, releasing endogenous opioids that suppress ascending pain signals at the spinal dorsal horn; naloxone blocks placebo analgesia confirming opioid dependence, and the magnitude of placebo effect correlates with functional DLPFC-PAG connectivity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0140-6736(78)92085-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Levine et al. (1978) - placebo analgesia blocked by naloxone; first evidence for endogenous opioid mechanism" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pmed.0020279", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Zubieta et al. (2005) - PET: placebo activates endogenous opioid system in DLPFC, ACC, PAG" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Wager et al. (2004) - fMRI of placebo analgesia: DLPFC activation predicts pain reduction" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-placebo-endogenous-opioid-dlpfc-pad.yaml" }, { "id": "h-placebo-endogenous-opioid-dlpfc", "title": "Placebo analgesia is mechanistically mediated by top-down activation of the dlPFC→ACC→PAG circuit that releases endogenous opioids (β-endorphin, met-enkephalin) in the periaqueductal gray, with naloxone-reversible analgesia magnitude predicting effect size; nocebo hyperalgesia uses the same circuit in reverse via CCK-ergic pathways", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nn1559", "note": "Wager et al. (2004) — Placebo-induced changes in fMRI in the anticipation and experience of pain; Science 303:1162", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1097/00006396-200107000-00005", "note": "Benedetti et al. (2005) — Neurobiological mechanisms of the placebo effect; J Neurosci 25:10390", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nrn3465", "note": "Tracey (2010) — Getting the pain you expect: mechanisms of placebo, nocebo and reappraisal effects in humans", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-placebo-endogenous-opioid-dlpfc.yaml" }, { "id": "h-plate-boundary-slip-x-fracture-mechanics", "title": "Earthquake breakdown energies inferred from seismic spectra will correlate with laboratory cohesive-zone lengths scaled by rupture depth when mapped through boundary-layer fracture asymptotics — falsifying scale-free K-field dominance across large earthquakes without cohesive regularization.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1029/JB074i008p02153", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Stress-drop scaling tradition motivating energetic fracture comparisons" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-plate-boundary-slip-x-fracture-mechanics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-plate-tectonics-initiated-by-bolide-impacts", "title": "Plate tectonics on early Earth was initiated by large bolide impacts in the late Hadean/Eoarchean that fractured thick stagnant-lid crust and created proto-subduction zones via lithospheric foundering", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1029/2021GL093517", "note": "O'Neill et al. (2020) — bolide impact initiation of subduction", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1130/G35796.1", "note": "Bercovici & Ricard (2014) — plate tectonics generation from mantle convection", "confidence": 0.62 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1038/s41561-021-00842-8", "note": "Hawkesworth et al. (2019) — evidence for plate tectonics at 3.8 Ga without impacts", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-plate-tectonics-initiated-by-bolide-impacts.yaml" }, { "id": "h-plate-tectonics-ra-viscosity-threshold", "title": "Plate tectonics initiates when the effective viscosity contrast between the lithosphere and asthenosphere drops below a critical ratio η_lid/η_mantle ~ 10³, achievable on Earth via water-induced grain-size reduction but not on dry Venus.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.epsl.2007.10.046", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Labrosse & Jaupart – viscosity-dependent stagnant-lid stability; critical viscosity ratio" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41561-022-00913-8", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Tackley 2008 – weakening mechanisms required for plate tectonics in simulations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-plate-tectonics-ra-viscosity-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-plate-tectonics-water-yield-stress", "title": "Plate tectonics on Earth requires hydrated, weak fault zones; the critical water fraction for mobile-lid convection transitions is predictable from yield-stress rheology and Rayleigh number scaling\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.pepi.2011.04.001", "note": "Tackley (2000) - Mantle convection models with yield stress; mobile-lid requires yield stress < 50 MPa for Earth parameters", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Korenaga (2010) - On the likelihood of plate tectonics on super-Earths; yield stress criterion from scaling theory", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Valencia et al. (2007) - Inevitability of plate tectonics on super-Earths; incorrect prediction highlights unknown factors", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-plate-tectonics-water-yield-stress.yaml" }, { "id": "h-platform-monopoly-two-sided-market-welfare", "title": "Digital platform monopolies in two-sided markets impose net welfare costs on consumers only when they exploit inattention or lock-in to extract consumer surplus above competitive price levels — zero-price platforms may still reduce welfare through data exploitation and privacy costs that exceed the subsidy value to consumers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1257/aer.20130861", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Rochet & Tirole (2006) two-sided market theory: optimal platform pricing subsidises one side to attract the other; monopoly price structure can be welfare-improving relative to separation — welfare depends on cross- side externalities.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjz014", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Brynjolfsson et al. (2019) consumer surplus from free digital services estimated at $1,770-$6,400 per person per year using willingness-to- accept surveys; suggests zero-price platforms generate substantial consumer surplus despite monopoly pricing.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1257/aer.20181012", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Fack & Landais (2021) measure data privacy costs; find users systematically undervalue their data — a behavioural wedge that enables exploitation even at zero money prices.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-platform-monopoly-two-sided-market-welfare.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pmf-bacterial-flagella-atp-synthase-evolutionary-homology", "title": "The bacterial flagellar motor (BFM) and F₀ ATP synthase share a common evolutionary ancestor and homologous ion-channel c-ring rotation mechanism, with the BFM representing a later divergence from an ancestral ATP synthase/motor that switched from ATP synthesis to mechanical torque generation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Comparative structural analysis: F₀ c-ring and flagellar C-ring (FliF/MS-ring) share β-barrel topology; MotA/MotB stator complex shows homology to ATP synthase a-subunit ion channel architecture (Schäffer et al. 2021 cryo-ET)", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Both systems use ion (H⁺ or Na⁺) flux down electrochemical gradient to drive rotation; stoichiometry arguments: BFM uses ~1200 H⁺/revolution vs. F₀ ~10 H⁺/revolution — consistent with torque scaling", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Liu et al. (2017) — V-type ATPase (archaeal) is intermediate between F-type ATP synthase and flagellar motor in phylogenetic reconstructions", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Sequence identity between flagellar components and ATP synthase subunits is low (<15%); structural homology may reflect convergent evolution of ion-channel topology rather than common ancestry", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pmf-bacterial-flagella-atp-synthase-evolutionary-homology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-polar-vortex-wave-resonance-disruption", "title": "Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are initiated by constructive interference of planetary Rossby waves (wavenumbers 1-2) amplified by Arctic sea ice loss that enhances stationary wave forcing, producing tropospheric cold air outbreaks with 2-6 week lag times predictable from stratospheric precursors", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00478.1", "note": "Cohen et al. (2014) — Recent Arctic amplification and extreme midlatitude weather; Nature Geosci", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1002/qj.49712555202", "note": "Baldwin & Dunkerton (2001) — Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes; Science 294:581", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00259.1", "note": "National Academy (2014) — Linkages between Arctic climate change and extreme weather: assessing the evidence", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-polar-vortex-wave-resonance-disruption.yaml" }, { "id": "h-polarisation-ising-phase-transition", "title": "Political polarisation dynamics undergo a genuine phase transition at a critical partisan homophily threshold, analogous to the Ising ferromagnetic transition", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-polarisation-ising-phase-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-political-polarization-ising-critical-slowing", "title": "Political polarization in democratic societies exhibits critical slowing down preceding major polarization transitions — measurable as increasing autocorrelation and variance in opinion poll time-series — analogous to Ising model dynamics near the ferromagnetic critical point T_c.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Scheffer et al. (2009) Nature 461:53 — critical slowing down as an early warning signal for ecosystem tipping points; same mathematical framework (increasing variance, rising autocorrelation) applies to social systems.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Castellano et al. (2009) Rev Mod Phys 81:591 — comprehensive review showing that voter model and bounded confidence models exhibit Ising-class phase transitions on heterogeneous networks.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Galam (2008) Int J Mod Phys C: sociophysics Ising models predict 50/50 election outcomes as the generic state near political T_c — consistent with observed narrowing of election margins in many Western democracies.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Watts (2002) \"A simple model of global cascades on random networks\" shows that opinion cascades in networks follow different dynamics from Ising systems due to threshold effects — not all social polarization is Ising-type.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-political-polarization-ising-critical-slowing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-polymer-glass-jamming-rfot-transition", "title": "The glass transition in fragile glass-formers is a random first-order transition with a thermodynamic singularity at T_K (Kauzmann temperature) obscured by finite-size mosaic state effects predicted by RFOT theory\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/31189", "note": "Liu & Nagel (1998) - Jamming phase diagram; unifies glass and granular jamming at point J", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wolynes & Lubchenko (2007) - Structural glasses, spin glasses, and the random first order transition theory; Rev Mod Phys", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Biroli et al. (2008) - Thermodynamic signature of growing amorphous order in glass-forming liquids; Nature Physics 4:771", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-polymer-glass-jamming-rfot-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pontryagin-adaptive-therapy-outperforms-mtd-solid-tumors", "title": "Pontryagin optimal control-derived adaptive therapy schedules that maintain drug-sensitive clones as evolutionary competitors will double progression-free survival compared to maximum tolerated dose chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer with mixed sensitive/ resistant clonal populations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/scitranslmed.3000248", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Gatenby et al. (2009) adaptive therapy in prostate cancer — 2-3x improvement in preclinical and early clinical data" }, { "doi": "10.1039/c8ib00057c", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Cunningham et al. (2018) optimal control of methotrexate administration — mathematical framework validated in vitro" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pontryagin-adaptive-therapy-outperforms-mtd-solid-tumors.yaml" }, { "id": "h-post-perovskite-d-double-prime-dynamics", "title": "The post-perovskite phase transition in Earth's D'' layer (2700 km depth) generates a seismic velocity discontinuity and thermochemical pile instability that drives large-scale mantle plumes, with the CMB temperature gradient directly controlling the double-crossing of the pPv stability field.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Murakami et al. (2004) Science: MgSiO₃ post-perovskite discovery at 125 GPa, 2500 K — Clapeyron slope +10 MPa/K produces velocity jump", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hernlund et al. (2005) double crossing of pPv transition predicted for CMB thermal gradient — matches observed D'' reflector geometry", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lay et al. (2006) seismic detection of D'' discontinuity: SH velocity jump 1–3% above and below pPv boundary", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-post-perovskite-d-double-prime-dynamics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-post-scarcity-ubi-marginal-cost", "title": "Near-zero marginal cost sectors (software, AI, digital goods) require a universal basic income or equivalent transfer mechanism to prevent permanent structural unemployment — the transition to post-scarcity economics is technologically feasible but requires a fundamental reconception of earned income as the primary distributional mechanism.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Brynjolfsson & McAfee (2014) The Second Machine Age: productivity-employment decoupling accelerating since 2000 in US; technology-driven", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Rifkin (2014) zero marginal cost society: renewable energy + digital goods approaching zero marginal cost; platform model captures rents", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Acemoglu & Restrepo (2020) task-displacing automation reduces labor share — consistent with structural unemployment hypothesis", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-post-scarcity-ubi-marginal-cost.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ppi-hub-targeting-cancer", "title": "Computational protein-protein interface design can produce nanomolar-affinity binders to hub proteins in the PPI network by exploiting their conserved hydrophobic interface hotspots, but off-target toxicity scales with network degree, creating a fundamental therapeutic window constraint imposed by the scale-free network topology.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aab2524", "note": "Fleishman et al. (2011) — RosettaDesign generates nanomolar binders to the influenza hemagglutinin; validates computational interface design at scale.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2021.09.029", "note": "Stahl et al. (2023) — AlphaFold2-Multimer enables structural prediction of designed PPI interfaces; hub protein surfaces enriched in designable hotspots.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/411:41", "note": "Jeong et al. (2001) — essential hub proteins in yeast PPI network; lethality correlates with network degree, predicting toxicity of hub-targeting binders.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ppi-hub-targeting-cancer.yaml" }, { "id": "h-pragmatic-inference-mentalizing-network", "title": "Pragmatic inference (implicature, irony, indirect speech) depends on the mentalizing network (TPJ, mPFC, STS) computing speaker intentions, predicting impaired pragmatics in autism due to reduced mentalizing precision", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2005.11.023", "note": "Happe et al. (2006) — theory of mind and pragmatics in autism", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cortex.2014.05.030", "note": "Spotorno et al. (2012) — neuroimaging of pragmatic inference", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2008.09.015", "note": "Bosco et al. (2013) — irony comprehension and right hemisphere", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-pragmatic-inference-mentalizing-network.yaml" }, { "id": "h-precision-weighting-schizophrenia-nmda-receptor", "title": "NMDA receptor hypofunction in schizophrenia specifically impairs precision weighting of prediction errors by disrupting apical dendritic integration in layer 5 pyramidal cells, causing runaway top-down predictions that manifest as positive symptoms (hallucinations, delusions) — testable by showing that NMDA antagonists (ketamine) reduce mismatch negativity (MMN) amplitude proportionally to psychosis severity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Friston et al. (2016) Neuropharmacology — precision weighting formalism predicts that NMDA hypofunction reduces gain of prediction error units (L2/3 pyramidal cells) by reducing NMDA-mediated synaptic currents; dopamine D1 receptor modulates precision via postsynaptic gain", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Umbricht & Krljes (2005) Biol Psychiatry — meta-analysis of 20 MMN studies: schizophrenia reduces MMN amplitude by ~50% vs. healthy controls; MMN is the ERP correlate of prediction error for deviant auditory stimuli", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Javitt et al. (2012) Trends Cogn Sci — ketamine (NMDA antagonist) reduces MMN in healthy volunteers mimicking schizophrenia pattern; supports NMDA-precision weighting link", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "MMN reduction in schizophrenia could reflect general attention or arousal deficits rather than specific precision-weighting impairment; no study has confirmed layer-specific NMDA effects on MMN generators", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-precision-weighting-schizophrenia-nmda-receptor.yaml" }, { "id": "h-predator-detection-optimal-sdt-threshold", "title": "Prey animals evolve vigilance thresholds consistent with the Bayesian-optimal SDT criterion: cross-species comparison of flight-initiation distances, predation mortality rates, and foraging payoffs will reveal that the observed threshold beta_obs is within one standard deviation of the SDT-predicted optimum beta* = C_false_alarm / C_miss in at least 70% of well-studied prey species.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rspb.2005.3165", "note": "Fernandez-Juricic et al. (2006) - SDT applied to avian predator detection; d' varies with habitat", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1007/s00265-004-0834-1", "note": "Blumstein (2006) - flight-initiation distance as a function of predation risk", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-predator-detection-optimal-sdt-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-predator-prey-damping-stochastic-forcing", "title": "Observed damping of predator-prey cycles is produced by demographic stochasticity acting on a stable spiral equilibrium (not a limit cycle), not by biological complexity per se; the apparent cycles are stochastically sustained oscillations around a deterministically stable equilibrium, and true Lotka-Volterra neutral cycles require unrealistic density-independence that is absent in all real food webs.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[1312:WNPCO]2.0.CO;2", "note": "Turchin & Ellner (2003) — time-series analysis of hare-lynx cycles; stochastic stable-spiral model fits better than limit-cycle model; cycles are noise-sustained.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01185.x", "note": "Barraquand et al. (2017) — meta-analysis of 66 predator-prey time series; most consistent with damped oscillations + stochastic forcing, not sustained cycles.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1890/0012-9658(1995)076[0020:PPCATN]2.0.CO;2", "note": "Krebs et al. (1995) — Kluane hare-lynx experiment; experimental food addition and predator exclusion suggest true limit cycles driven by food-predator interaction.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-predator-prey-damping-stochastic-forcing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-predictive-cpc-loss-improves-downstream-transfer-under-shift", "title": "Autocorrelation-aware negative sampling for CPC training improves downstream transfer metrics versus standard shuffle negatives when evaluated on temporally structured scientific datasets with induced distribution shift.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1807.03748", "note": "Baseline CPC training setup used as control for sampling modifications.", "confidence": 0.54 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-predictive-cpc-loss-improves-downstream-transfer-under-shift.yaml" }, { "id": "h-predictive-processing-psychosis", "title": "Psychotic hallucinations arise from a pathological increase in prior precision relative to likelihood precision — the brain is locked in a high-confidence prior state that overrides incoming sensory evidence — and this computational failure is quantifiable from the psychophysics of predictive processing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rstb.2013.0186", "note": "Adams et al. (2013) formal analysis of predictive coding in psychosis: reduced NMDA receptor function (as modelled by ketamine or schizophrenia) impairs precision weighting of prediction errors, leading to hallucination-like over-reliance on prior expectations.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2009.04.005", "note": "Fletcher & Frith (2009) cognitive dysmetria and aberrant salience in psychosis; prediction error signals that should be suppressed by accurate predictions are instead amplified, driving hallucinatory experiences.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Alternative model: hallucinations may arise from increased noise in the likelihood (sensory channel) rather than increased prior precision — the distinction is difficult to test behaviourally without independent measures of both parameters.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-predictive-processing-psychosis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-preisach-density-grain-size-prediction", "title": "The Preisach switching field distribution rho(alpha,beta) of a polycrystalline ferromagnet can be predicted from grain size distribution measured by EBSD within a factor of 2, using Stoner-Wohlfarth single-domain particle theory", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.64, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/978-3-662-04726-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Mayergoyz (2003) - Preisach model review; grain size connection discussed qualitatively" }, { "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1948.0095", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Stoner & Wohlfarth (1948) - single-domain particle switching fields from shape anisotropy" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-preisach-density-grain-size-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-preregistration-field-replication-rate", "title": "Fields with higher preregistration adoption rates will show measurably higher replication rates in independent multi-laboratory replication projects, with a detectable dose-response relationship between percent preregistered studies and field-level replication probability.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Registered Reports (peer review before data collection, publication guaranteed) show ~85% replication rate in meta-analyses vs. ~40% for standard publications in psychology (Scheel et al., 2021). This provides the strongest individual-study evidence that preregistration increases confirmatory validity.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "OSF preregistration rates by sub-discipline in psychology correlate weakly with estimated replication rates in existing multi-lab projects (Many Labs 1–5), but no formal regression analysis has been published.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Fields with high preregistration rates (clinical trials via ClinicalTrials.gov) also have high non-compliance rates; preregistration does not prevent selective outcome reporting if compliance is not enforced.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-preregistration-field-replication-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prestin-somatic-motility-primary-cochlear-amplification-mechanism-mammals", "title": "Prestin-based somatic electromotility is the primary cycle-by-cycle amplification mechanism in the mammalian cochlear amplifier at high frequencies (>3 kHz), while active hair bundle motility plays a subsidiary role in amplification but is the dominant mechanism for generating the Hopf nonlinearity at low frequencies (<1 kHz).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35013657", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Zheng et al. (2000) — prestin is the motor; prestin knockout (Liberman 2002) shows ~40 dB loss at high frequencies, consistent with prestin dominance\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2008.07.012", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Hudspeth (2008) — hair bundle motility sufficient for amplification in vitro (frog sacculus); role in mammalian low-frequency cochlea supported but not proven\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.84.5232", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Eguíluz et al. (2000) — Hopf model agnostic about molecular mechanism" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prestin-somatic-motility-primary-cochlear-amplification-mechanism-mammals.yaml" }, { "id": "h-price-equation-cultural-group-selection", "title": "The Price equation multilevel selection decomposition predicts that between-group cultural selection contributes more to the maintenance of large-scale human cooperation than within-group individual selection, with the between-group component exceeding 50% of total selection when group size exceeds 150 individuals", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/jhered/84.5.372", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Price (1972) - covariance selection: multilevel decomposition framework" }, { "doi": "10.1016/S0022-5193(64)80040-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Hamilton (1964) - inclusive fitness: kin selection and group selection equivalence" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bowles (2006) - group competition, reproductive leveling, and evolution of human altruism" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-price-equation-cultural-group-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-price-equation-cultural-trait-frequency", "title": "The Price equation decomposition applied to Twitter/X meme virality data reveals a significant cultural selection term (Cov(adoption rate, trait value) ≠ 0) distinguishable from neutral drift, with selection coefficient s > 0.01 for politically and emotionally salient content categories.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/227520a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Price (1970) establishes the general decomposition applicable to cultural traits" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.08.001", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Henrich (2004) provides framework for cultural selection detection" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-price-equation-cultural-trait-frequency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-price-subsidy-closes-nash-herd-gap-in-agent-based-metapopulations", "title": "In spatially explicit agent-based epidemic models calibrated to city mobility data, tuition-style subsidies that reduce perceived vaccination cost by fixed percentages will increase equilibrium coverage until crossing SIR-derived herd thresholds more reliably than information-only campaigns — falsified if modeled subsidies shift uptake insignificantly because trust parameters dominate elasticities in posterior draws.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rspb.2011.0812", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.42, "note": "Evolutionary game coupling of vaccines and prevalence motivates subsidy experiments in silico" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-price-subsidy-closes-nash-herd-gap-in-agent-based-metapopulations.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prime-editing-hdr-bypass-therapeutic-window", "title": "PE6 prime editing (nCas9-RT + dominant-negative MLH1) achieves >20% correction efficiency for the HbS β-globin E6V mutation in post-mitotic erythroblasts via AAV6 delivery, establishing a therapeutic window for sickle cell disease that is competitive with exa-cel without requiring HSC ex vivo editing, enabling in vivo treatment.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Chen et al. (2021) Nat Biotechnol — PE6 with dominant-negative MLH1 increases prime editing by 7.7-fold in HEK293T cells vs. PE2; MLH1 suppression removes major MMR-mediated correction of the 3′ flap", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Anzalone et al. (2022) Nat Biotechnol — PE5max achieves >50% correction in dividing iPSC; efficiency gap to post-mitotic is 5-10x; MLH1dn reduces but does not eliminate gap", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Exa-cel (CTX001) FDA approval Dec 2023 — ex vivo BCL11A enhancer disruption achieves >90% HbF reactivation but requires bone marrow ablation; in vivo threshold for clinical benefit is ~30% HbS correction", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "AAV6 transduction efficiency in human erythroblasts in vivo is low (~5-15%); even 100% prime editing efficiency per transduced cell may not achieve >20% bulk correction in the patient", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prime-editing-hdr-bypass-therapeutic-window.yaml" }, { "id": "h-primordial-gw-inflation-energy-scale", "title": "The tensor-to-scalar ratio r = 16ε (slow-roll) directly encodes the energy scale of inflation V^{1/4} ≈ 10^16 GeV × (r/0.01)^{1/4}; a detection of r > 0.001 would confirm large-field (super-Planckian) inflationary models and rule out most small-field scenarios", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1088/1475-7516/2014/10/046", "note": "BICEP/Keck constraints r < 0.036 at 95% CL (2021 update); inflation models prediction", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.241101", "note": "Guth, Kaiser & Nomura (2014) — Inflationary paradigm review; confirms Lyth bound linking r to field excursion", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "LiteBIRD (launch ~2032) targets sensitivity σ(r) ~ 0.001, sufficient to test Starobinsky and Higgs inflation predictions", "confidence": 0.88 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-primordial-gw-inflation-energy-scale.yaml" }, { "id": "h-primordial-nucleosynthesis-reaction-networks", "title": "LUNA-MV measurements of the d(p,γ)³He and d(d,n)³He reaction rates will reduce BBN D/H uncertainty to <1%, and the resulting η (baryon density) will be consistent with Planck CMB Ω_b·h² to within 0.5σ", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.physrep.2015.12.005", "note": "Cyburt et al. (2016) Big Bang nucleosynthesis 2015 — current precision and uncertainties", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Mossa et al. (2020) The baryon density of the Universe from an improved rate of deuterium burning. Nature 587:210", "confidence": 0.88 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-primordial-nucleosynthesis-reaction-networks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-principal-bundle-chern-class-anomaly-cancellation", "title": "The topological Chern classes of the gauge bundle determine all perturbative and non-perturbative anomaly cancellation conditions in Standard Model extensions, predicting discrete constraints on new gauge group representations discoverable at colliders\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-principal-bundle-chern-class-anomaly-cancellation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prion-llps-nucleation-kinetics", "title": "Prion conformational seeding kinetics and liquid-liquid phase separation nucleation kinetics for homologous prion-like domains follow the same power-law dependence on protein concentration, with exponents differing by less than 20%, indicating a shared nucleation mechanism.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2017.08.048", "note": "Alberti & Hyman (2021) — biomolecular condensates and aggregation disease" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prion-llps-nucleation-kinetics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prion-nucleation-rate-prnp-polymorphism", "title": "The PRNP M129V polymorphism alters spontaneous PrPSc nucleation rate by > 10-fold, explaining the 3-fold higher sCJD risk in MM homozygotes vs. MV heterozygotes, testable via quartz crystal microbalance nucleation kinetics of recombinant PrP", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1002/ana.10464", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Parchi et al. (1999) Ann Neurol - PRNP M129 genotype and sCJD subtypes with different incubation" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.0050321", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Knowles et al. (2009) - nucleated polymerization kinetics predict nucleation rate from lag time" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prion-nucleation-rate-prnp-polymorphism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prion-tunneling-nanotube-intercellular-spread", "title": "Prion proteins propagate between neurons primarily via tunnelling nanotubes (TNTs) that form direct cytoplasmic bridges between cells, bypassing extracellular space and allowing templated misfolding to spread as an ordered chain reaction with directionality determined by axonal transport polarity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1371/journal.ppat.1000259", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Gousset et al. (2009) PLoS Pathog — direct observation of PrP spreading via TNTs between neuronal cells in culture; transfer requires actin-mediated nanotube formation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1083/jcb.200709042", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Rustom et al. (2004) Science — TNT formation is a generalised intercellular communication mechanism in neurons; diameter 50-200nm, length up to 100μm\n" }, { "doi": "10.1002/glia.23310", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Dissemination also occurs via exosomes (Fevrier 2004); but TNT model predicts directed spread along anatomically connected pathways as observed in CJD progression, consistent with Braak staging in synucleinopathies sharing same mechanism\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prion-tunneling-nanotube-intercellular-spread.yaml" }, { "id": "h-program-synthesis-deductive-inductive-limits", "title": "Program synthesis completeness is limited by the halting problem for general specifications, but practically bounded by inductive synthesis (learning from examples) vs deductive synthesis (formal specifications); LLM-based synthesis achieves competitive programming task success at HumanEval-like benchmarks but fails on compositional specification problems beyond ~4-5 function compositions, indicating a formal verification gap", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/3571228", "note": "Gulwani et al. (2017) — Program synthesis; Found Trends Programming Lang", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Chen et al. (2021) — Evaluating large language models trained on code (Codex/HumanEval); arXiv:2107.03374", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1145/3428225", "note": "Pnueli & Rosner (1989) — On the synthesis of a reactive module; incompleteness bounds", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-program-synthesis-deductive-inductive-limits.yaml" }, { "id": "h-projective-hierarchy-determinacy", "title": "All projective sets of reals are Lebesgue measurable, have the Baire property, and have the perfect set property, assuming large cardinal axioms (at least infinitely many Woodin cardinals with a measurable above) — and these regularity properties cannot be proved from ZFC alone.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Martin & Steel (1989) projective determinacy from Woodin cardinals: PD follows from ω Woodin cardinals + measurable — implies all projective sets are regular", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Shelah (1984) ZFC non-measurable projective set: Cohen-forcing constructions produce non-measurable Σ^1_2 sets in ZFC alone — regularity independent of ZFC", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Woodin (1988) AD^L(R) from large cardinals: all L(R) sets are regular assuming large cardinals — extends beyond projective hierarchy", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-projective-hierarchy-determinacy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prosodic-bootstrapping-edge-finding", "title": "Prosodic bootstrapping provides the first syntactic scaffolding in language acquisition by allowing infants to identify clause and phrase boundaries from prosodic cues before acquiring lexical knowledge — but contributes at most 30% of variance in syntactic development relative to distributional statistical learning.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hirsh-Pasek et al. (1987) 7-month infants prefer speech with pauses at clause boundaries — prosodic edge detection precedes word segmentation", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Christophe et al. (2008) phonological phrase boundaries predict syntactic structure — infants use them to group words into phrases", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Saffran et al. (1996) statistical learning (transitional probabilities) alone sufficient for word segmentation without prosody — alternative mechanism", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prosodic-bootstrapping-edge-finding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prospect-theory-lambda-fitness-landscape-ancestral-environment", "title": "The loss aversion coefficient λ ≈ 2.25 is a Bayesian-optimal decision parameter for an agent facing the ancestral human foraging environment, where the variance-to-mean ratio of daily caloric intake creates a fitness landscape in which losses have systematically 2.0–2.5× greater fitness consequences than equivalent gains due to starvation risk asymmetry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.2307/1914185", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Kahneman & Tversky (1979) established λ ≈ 2.25 empirically in WEIRD samples" }, { "doi": "10.1162/003355397555253", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Laibson (1997) present bias as evolutionary adaptation — parallel evolutionary-economic reasoning" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kelly (1956) Kelly criterion for optimal betting under uncertainty gives asymmetric response to gains/losses; applied to foraging gives loss-aversion-like parameters for nutritional variance ~ 30% CV" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prospect-theory-lambda-fitness-landscape-ancestral-environment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prospect-theory-neural-encoding", "title": "The S-shaped prospect theory value function is encoded by the firing rate-stimulus relationship of dopaminergic neurons in the ventral striatum, with the loss-aversion inflection point at zero predicted by asymmetric dopamine release-suppression kinetics measurable via fast-scan cyclic voltammetry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2007.09.006", "note": "Tom et al. (2007) Neuron — fMRI shows neural value signals with loss-gain asymmetry in striatum" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nrn3628", "note": "Schultz (2015) Nat Rev Neurosci — RPE signals encode prospect theory value in primate dopamine neurons" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2009.09.019", "note": "Rangel et al. (2008) Nature Neurosci — neuroeconomics review placing prospect theory in neural context" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "O'Neill & Schultz (2010) showed some dopamine neurons encode expected value linearly, inconsistent with the concave/convex value function. The S-shaped encoding may be a population-level property emergent from a distribution of linear individual neurons.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prospect-theory-neural-encoding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-prospect-theory-neural-value-coding", "title": "Ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) encodes the prospect theory value function v(x) with asymmetric slopes for gains and losses, while amygdala activity encodes the loss aversion coefficient lambda, predicting that vmPFC-amygdala connectivity mediates individual differences in loss aversion behavior.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2009.09.016", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Sokol-Hessner et al. (2009) show vmPFC BOLD signal correlates with choice value as predicted by prospect theory; individuals with stronger vmPFC-amygdala coupling show greater loss aversion.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1232599", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "De Martino et al. (2010) show amygdala lesion patients show reduced loss aversion, providing causal evidence for amygdala's role in computing v(loss).\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-prospect-theory-neural-value-coding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-proteasome-saturation-bistability-neurodegeneration", "title": "Proteasome saturation by misfolded protein aggregates creates a bistable proteostasis switch whose collapse threshold decreases exponentially with age due to declining proteasome subunit synthesis, predicting that restoring 20S proteasome abundance by >1.5-fold prevents proteostasis collapse in aged neurons\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-proteasome-saturation-bistability-neurodegeneration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-protein-aggregation-x-nucleation-growth", "title": "Secondary nucleation dominates Aβ42 aggregation in vivo above a critical aggregate concentration threshold of ~1 nM fibril mass, with an in vivo secondary nucleation rate constant k₂ within 10-fold of in vitro measurements after correcting for cellular crowding (Macromolecular crowding factor ≈ 2)", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1254516", "note": "Cohen et al. — secondary nucleation dominates in vitro Aβ42 aggregation kinetics", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Knowles et al. (2009) — analytical solution gives exact k₁, k₊, k₂ from bulk fluorescence kinetics", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-protein-aggregation-x-nucleation-growth.yaml" }, { "id": "h-protein-dynamics-optimize-quantum-tunneling", "title": "Enzyme \"promoting vibrations\" — specific low-frequency protein conformational motions that compress the proton donor-acceptor distance d — are evolutionarily selected to optimize quantum tunneling rates, and thermophilic enzyme variants with increased promoting vibration frequencies should show reduced KIE at the thermophilic growth temperature due to classical contribution dominance.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1021/ar050201z", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Hammes-Schiffer — promoting vibration theory in PCET" }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-biochem-051710-133623", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Klinman & Kohen — direct evidence for promoting vibrations in alcohol dehydrogenase" }, { "doi": "10.1021/bi990941v", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Scrutton et al. — experimental KIE measurements exceeding classical limit" }, { "doi": "10.1046/j.1432-1033.2002.03018.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Sutcliffe & Scrutton — proton-coupled electron transfer framework" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-protein-dynamics-optimize-quantum-tunneling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-protein-folding-frustration-aggregation", "title": "The local frustration index from the Wolynes-Ferreiro frustratometer quantitatively predicts aggregation-prone regions in intrinsically disordered proteins with accuracy comparable to sequence-based aggregation predictors\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nsb0198-10", "note": "Dill & Chan (1997) - From Levinthal to pathways to funnels; funnel topology and frustration principles", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Ferreiro et al. (2014) - Frustration in biomolecules; frustratometer measures local energetic conflicts predicting functional sites", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Knowles et al. (2014) - The amyloid state and its association with protein misfolding diseases; Science 326:1533", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-protein-folding-frustration-aggregation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-protein-folding-funnel-alphafold2-contact-prediction-mechanism", "title": "AlphaFold2's evoformer attention implicitly learns the contact map of the protein energy landscape funnel — specifically, the pairwise coevolution signal in multiple sequence alignments is a compressed representation of the G(Q) funnel slope — and designed proteins with >70% MSA coverage achieve experimental folding rates within 3-fold of AF2-predicted contact predictions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03819-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.92, "note": "Jumper et al. (2021) — AF2 achieves 0.96 Å RMSD; attention heads in evoformer learn pairwise contact information from MSA covariation" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.84.21.7524", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Bryngelson & Wolynes (1987) — energy landscape theory; funneled landscape is prerequisite for fast, reliable folding; contact map determines funnel shape" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Morcos et al. (2011) PNAS — direct coupling analysis (DCA) from MSA extracts contact maps from coevolution; AF2 evoformer generalizes DCA with learned attention weights" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-protein-folding-funnel-alphafold2-contact-prediction-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-protein-language-model-priors-improve-viral-escape-forecasting", "title": "Protein language-model priors improve near-term viral escape forecasting accuracy with lineage-aware models.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2006.10555", "note": "Protein sequence language-model foundation.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-protein-language-model-priors-improve-viral-escape-forecasting.yaml" }, { "id": "h-psilocybin-rescheduling-neuroplasticity-evidence", "title": "Psilocybin's antidepressant efficacy comparable to SSRIs (Carhart-Harris 2021) derives from 5-HT2A-mediated BDNF upregulation and rapid dendritic spine growth (neuroplasticity), and this mechanistic evidence satisfies the pharmacological criteria for removal from Schedule I — providing a scientifically tractable basis for rescheduling that is distinct from political arguments.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1056/NEJMoa2032994", "note": "Carhart-Harris et al. (2021) NEJM RCT: psilocybin vs. escitalopram in major depressive disorder — no significant difference in primary outcome (QIDS-SR-16) with psilocybin showing superiority on secondary measures.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ly et al. (2018) Cell Reports: psilocybin promotes structural and functional plasticity of human cortical neurons — BDNF upregulation, dendritic spine density increase within 24 hours at psychedelic doses.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Schedule I criteria include \"high potential for abuse\" — psilocybin does not produce physical dependence and has low addiction liability by standard metrics, but its scheduling is also based on historical and political factors (Controlled Substances Act 1970) that may require legislative rather than purely scientific action.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-psilocybin-rescheduling-neuroplasticity-evidence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ptlds-neuroinflammation-il6-blockade", "title": "IL-6 receptor blockade (tocilizumab) will reduce PTLDS cognitive symptoms by interrupting the self-sustaining astrocyte-microglial activation loop, measurable by reduced CSF CXCL13/IL-6 and improved NeuroQoL scores in a randomized controlled trial.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1186/s12974-015-0312-5", "note": "Ramesh et al. (2015) Borrelia-induced TLR2-mediated microglial and astrocyte activation persists in primate models post-antibiotic clearance — key mechanistic support for self-sustaining neuroinflammation.", "confidence": 0.63 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Tocilizumab (anti-IL-6R) is FDA-approved for rheumatoid arthritis, cytokine release syndrome, and giant cell arteritis — extensive human safety data available; mechanism of blocking reactive astrogliosis via JAK/STAT3 inhibition is well-characterized in the MS literature.", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1212/WNL.0b013e31816c8a43", "note": "Fallon et al. (2008) repeated IV antibiotic trial showed modest cognitive improvement, suggesting neurological pathology is partially reversible — consistent with a treatable neuroinflammatory component.", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "IL-6 blockade carries infection risk (IL-6 is required for acute-phase response); using immunosuppression in a condition where residual Borrelia may be present requires careful safety monitoring and confirmed bacterial clearance before treatment.", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.3389/fmed.2013.00057", "note": "Aucott et al. (2013) PTLDS symptom burden — establishes that cognitive impairment is the primary unmet need in PTLDS and the target for this hypothesis.", "confidence": 0.92 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ptlds-neuroinflammation-il6-blockade.yaml" }, { "id": "h-publication-bias-p-curve-correction", "title": "Publication bias in meta-analyses can be corrected post-hoc using p-curve analysis combined with PET-PEESE regression, but only when the distribution of true effects is non-zero; for null true effects, p-curve is uninformative and excess significance tests provide the only valid correction.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/a0033242", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Simonsohn et al. (2014) J Exp Psychol Gen — p-curve analysis recovers true effect size when only significant studies published; outperforms trim-and-fill and Egger regression in simulations with heterogeneous effects\n" }, { "doi": "10.1037/met0000014", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Stanley & Doucouliagos (2014) — PET-PEESE method (precision-effect test and precision-effect estimate with standard error): meta-regression on precision removes small-study effects; valid when there is a non-zero true effect\n" }, { "doi": "10.1111/rssa.12498", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Excess significance test (Ioannidis & Trikalinos): counts studies with p<0.05 and compares with expected count given declared effect sizes; does not require distributional assumptions; complements p-curve when true effect distribution unknown\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-publication-bias-p-curve-correction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-punishment-threshold-ess-moral-universality", "title": "Moral intuitions about unfairness punishment will be stronger (higher willingness to pay) in societies where the evolutionary punishment ESS requires higher per-capita sanctioning costs, predictable from average group size and relatedness in traditional subsistence communities.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.66, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1093133", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Fehr & Gächter – altruistic punishment cross-culturally; variation in punishment intensity" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1099-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Henrich et al. – pro-social punishment across 15 societies; payoff structure variation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-punishment-threshold-ess-moral-universality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-qaoa-parameter-transfer-improves-surrogate-warm-starts", "title": "Classical surrogates fitted on low-depth QAOA telemetry reduce median time-to-target energy when transferred as warm starts under matched noise calibration.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.66, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1411.4028", "note": "Baseline variational objective definitions for benchmarking surrogate usefulness.", "confidence": 0.58 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-qaoa-parameter-transfer-improves-surrogate-warm-starts.yaml" }, { "id": "h-qkd-device-independent-practical-security", "title": "Device-independent QKD (DI-QKD) provides information-theoretically secure key distribution even against adversarial device manufacturers, but current implementations require loophole-free Bell inequality violation at key generation rates compatible with practical communication — achievable with photon collection efficiency > 85% in entanglement sources, a threshold currently within reach of trapped-ion and neutral-atom platforms but not yet of fiber photonic implementations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Nadlinger et al. (2022) Nature 607:682 — device-independent QKD experiment", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "note": "Pirandola et al. (2020) Adv Opt Photon 12:1012 — QKD advances review", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "note": "Lo et al. (2005) Phys Rev Lett 94:230504 — measurement-device-independent QKD", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-qkd-device-independent-practical-security.yaml" }, { "id": "h-qkd-satellite-global-scale-feasibility", "title": "Low-Earth-orbit satellite QKD (as demonstrated by Micius) can achieve key rates sufficient for a global quantum-secured network when combined with quantum memory nodes, predicting that a constellation of 50-100 LEO satellites with 30-second overpass windows achieves 1 Mbit/day secure key between any two ground stations separated by up to 10,000 km.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aan3211", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Liao et al. (2017) Micius satellite QKD achieves 1 kbps key rate over 1200 km ground-to-satellite link; demonstrates feasibility of satellite QKD, supports scaling analysis.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.abb0525", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Chen et al. (2021) twin-field QKD at 511 km achieves 0.5 bit/s; combined with satellite relay, this suggests intercontinental key rates approaching the kbit/day range needed for practical applications.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-qkd-satellite-global-scale-feasibility.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quality-ranked-ransac-improves-astrometric-crossmatch-precision", "title": "In simulated astronomical cross-matching with clustered artifacts, quality-ranked RANSAC sampling will reduce false matches by at least 20 percent versus uniform RANSAC at fixed recall; falsified if ranked sampling overfits survey-quality flags and loses recall.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.38, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/358669.358692", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Fischler and Bolles (1981) RANSAC." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quality-ranked-ransac-improves-astrometric-crossmatch-precision.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-advantage-noise-threshold", "title": "Quantum processors achieve practical advantage over classical algorithms only when two-qubit gate fidelity exceeds 99.9 percent across all qubits simultaneously", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-advantage-noise-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-annealing-qaoa-comparison", "title": "Quantum annealing outperforms QAOA for dense, frustrated Ising problems when the tunneling schedule can be calibrated to the problem's spectral gap, but QAOA surpasses quantum annealing for sparse graph problems where shallow circuits avoid decoherence before the annealing gap closes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevX.6.031015", "note": "Boixo et al. (2016) — evidence that D-Wave 2000Q exhibits quantum tunneling signatures in dense random Ising instances; comparison to classical SA.\n" }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1411.4028", "note": "Farhi et al. (2014) — original QAOA paper; performance guarantees for MaxCut on 3-regular graphs outperform simple classical algorithms at p=1.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1038/s41534-021-00425-w", "note": "Albash & Lidar (2018) review — quantum annealing on D-Wave does not reliably outperform classical simulated annealing on tested benchmark sets.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-annealing-qaoa-comparison.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-annealing-simulated-annealing", "title": "For random Ising spin glass instances on the Chimera graph with N=2000 variables, D-Wave Advantage will find solutions within 1% of optimal in <10ms — 100x faster than simulated annealing at matched solution quality — for instances with sparse, clustered structure", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.220.4598.671", "note": "Kirkpatrick et al. (1983) simulated annealing baseline", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.physrep.2015.12.005", "note": "Hauke et al. (2020) Perspectives of quantum annealing", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-annealing-simulated-annealing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-chaos-mss-bound-saturation-black-holes", "title": "The Maldacena-Shenker-Stanford (MSS) bound on quantum chaos (λ_L ≤ 2πk_BT/ℏ) is saturated only by systems with a holographic dual (black holes and SYK-like models), and this saturation is thermodynamically equivalent to maximal information scrambling — providing a route to detecting quantum gravitational signatures in condensed matter.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/JHEP08(2016)106", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Maldacena, Shenker & Stanford (2016) JHEP — prove chaos bound λ_L ≤ 2πT from quantum gravity consistency; saturated by black holes and Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model; large-q SYK gives λ_L = 2πT exactly\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.123.130601", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Landsman et al. (2019) Nature — experimental measurement of scrambling in trapped ion quantum computer using teleportation-based OTOCs; first direct quantum measurement of information scrambling rate\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-022-04942-8", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.73, "note": "Strange metal phenomenology in cuprates shows T-linear resistivity consistent with Planckian dissipation (τ ~ ℏ/k_BT) — possible experimental signature of MSS-saturating dynamics in condensed matter without black holes\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-chaos-mss-bound-saturation-black-holes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-compass-precision", "title": "The radical-pair compass in cryptochrome operates at the quantum Fisher-information Cramér-Rao precision bound because evolution has implemented a near-optimal measurement strategy — and identifying that strategy will reveal bio-inspired decoherence-suppression principles applicable to engineered quantum sensors.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2401.02923", "note": "Radical-pair compass shown to approach Cramér-Rao bound — quantum Fisher-information precision limit reached biologically" }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2206.07355", "note": "Driven spin dynamics enhances magnetoreception even in realistic inter-radical coupling regimes — decoherence does not destroy optimality" }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2103.00967", "note": "NV-center magnetometer for MEG — engineered quantum sensor facing the same room-temperature coherence challenge" }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2303.15974", "note": "Vector NV-center magnetic sensor for brain imaging — convergently evolved/engineered solution comparison" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The Cramér-Rao bound may be approached coincidentally rather than through optimised design — the protein scaffold may simply not matter, and the radical pair would operate near-optimally in any aprotic environment. Systematic mutagenesis of the protein environment that degrades precision without shortening radical lifetime would refute the hypothesis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-compass-precision.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-darwinism-photon-redundancy-verification", "title": "Quantum Darwinism predicts a plateau in mutual information I(S:F) at I(S:F) = H(S) for fragment sizes above 1/R_delta of the total environment, verifiable in a photon-environment experiment with full environment access", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nphys1202", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Zurek (2009) - quantum Darwinism framework and plateau prediction" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.99.042307", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Unden et al. (2019) - experimental signatures of quantum Darwinism in nitrogen-vacancy center" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-darwinism-photon-redundancy-verification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-decoherence-biological-timescale-phonon", "title": "Quantum coherence in warm, wet biological systems (protein complexes, DNA) decoheres on femtosecond-picosecond timescales due to phonon bath coupling and hydrogen bond fluctuations; any purported quantum effects in biology require either (a) protected decoherence-free subspaces or (b) noise-assisted transport mechanisms where coherence is irrelevant to function even if transiently present.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature05678", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Engel et al. (2007) - quantum coherence in photosynthetic FMO complex at 77K; disputed at physiological temperature" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1231320", "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Wilde et al. (2010) - classical vibrational coherence masquerades as quantum coherence in FMO; revisionist evidence" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1010880107", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Tegmark (2000) - quantitative decoherence time in warm neural systems: ~10^-13 seconds, far below relevant timescales" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-decoherence-biological-timescale-phonon.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-decoherence-x-classical-emergence", "title": "Quantum Darwinism predicts that classical objectivity (observer-independent facts) requires at least F = log(N_E)/S_S environmental fragments to encode redundant information, where N_E is environment size and S_S is system entropy, implying that macroscopic quantum systems decohere into classicality within ~10^-20 seconds at room temperature", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.75.715", "note": "Zurek (2003) — Decoherence and einselection; foundational einselection theory", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Zurek (2009) — Quantum Darwinism; Nature Physics 5:181; redundant information encoding in environment", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-decoherence-x-classical-emergence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-diamond-nv-single-molecule-biosensing", "title": "Nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centre magnetometers in diamond can achieve single-molecule magnetic sensitivity at room temperature when placed within 2nm of target molecules, and NV-based proton NMR spectroscopy on nanoscale biological samples will achieve sufficient sensitivity to detect single-protein conformational states in living cells.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1258742", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Lovchinsky et al. (2016) Science — NV-based single-molecule proton NMR achieved on statistical ensemble of 20-30 lipid molecules; SNR scales as 1/r³ where r is NV-to-sample distance; sensitivity demonstrated at 1.7nm stand-off distance\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature17997", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Aslam et al. (2017) Science — NV centre detects single electron spin flip in adjacent molecule; achievable at ambient conditions (298K, 1 atm); sensitivity 4 × 10⁻³ μ_B/√Hz at 1nm stand-off\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevX.10.021071", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Two remaining barriers: (1) placing NV reliably at <2nm surface depth while maintaining coherence time T2 > 100μs; (2) functionalising diamond surface to bind target proteins without disturbing NV environment; both are engineering rather than fundamental limits\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-diamond-nv-single-molecule-biosensing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-dot-blinking-surface-trap-levy", "title": "The universal power-law exponent in quantum dot blinking (alpha ~ 1.5) arises from a nearly uniform distribution of surface trap activation energies over a ~0.3-0.5 eV range, a consequence of the amorphous ligand shell geometry; surface passivation shifts the entire trap energy distribution without changing its shape, explaining why improved QDs blink less often but maintain the same power-law exponent.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/35098009", "note": "Kuno et al. (2001) - power-law blinking kinetics; exponent consistent across samples", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1021/nl903424", "note": "Mahler et al. (2008) - colloidal synthesis of core-shell QDs with reduced blinking", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-dot-blinking-surface-trap-levy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-dot-emission-confinement-scaling", "title": "The first-exciton emission peak of colloidal CdSe quantum dots follows the Brus equation to within 5 nm over the 2–7 nm diameter range at room temperature, and deviations > 5 nm are attributable to surface reconstruction effects quantifiable by strain-corrected tight-binding calculations", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1021/ja00355a005", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Brus (1984) — original confinement energy derivation; well-established for CdSe in the 3–7 nm range" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.271.5251.933", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Alivisatos (1996) — experimental validation of size-tunable emission with Brus equation" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Norris & Bawendi (1996) — single-dot spectroscopy shows deviations from Brus at small sizes" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-dot-emission-confinement-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-error-correction-surface-code-overhead-v2", "title": "Surface code fault-tolerant quantum computing requires ~1000 physical qubits per logical qubit at physical error rates p ~ 10^-3 (below code threshold p_th ~ 1%), scaling as d^2 where d is the code distance; achieving practical quantum advantage requires reducing this overhead via improved code concatenation, biased noise exploitation, or magic state distillation improvements", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.86.032324", "note": "Fowler et al. (2012) — Surface codes: towards practical large-scale quantum computation; Phys Rev A", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41567-022-01732-1", "note": "Google Quantum AI (2023) — Suppressing quantum errors by scaling a surface code logical qubit; Nature", "confidence": 0.92 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PRXQuantum.2.040353", "note": "Bravyi et al. (2023) — High-threshold and low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory; Nature 627", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-error-correction-surface-code-overhead-v2.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-error-correction-surface-code-overhead", "title": "The surface code requires approximately 1000 physical qubits per logical qubit at current physical error rates (~10^-3), but threshold improvements to 10^-4 error rates would reduce this to ~100:1, making fault-tolerant quantum computing practical; the minimum physical-to-logical overhead is lower-bounded by the code distance needed to suppress errors below 10^-10 for useful computation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature23460", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Fowler et al. (2012) - surface code: threshold ~1%, resource requirements for factoring" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-023-06927-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Google (2023) - below-threshold error correction in surface code demonstrated" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Bravyi et al. (2024) - bivariate bicycle codes: 10x fewer qubits than surface code at same distance" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-error-correction-surface-code-overhead.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-error-correction-x-topological-codes", "title": "Majorana-based topological qubits in semiconductor nanowire networks will achieve below-threshold logical error rates when system size exceeds a critical length determined by the topological gap\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.80.1083", "note": "Nayak et al. (2008) - Non-abelian anyons and topological quantum computation; theoretical foundation", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kitaev (2003) - Fault-tolerant quantum computation by anyons; arXiv:quant-ph/9707021", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-error-correction-x-topological-codes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-field-theory-x-combinatorics", "title": "The QED perturbation series for the anomalous magnetic moment of the electron is Borel summable on the positive real axis with non-perturbative corrections of order exp(-pi/alpha) ~ 10^-1860, making the asymptotic series effectively exact for all practical purposes up to Planck-scale corrections.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s002200050499", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Connes & Kreimer (1999) - Hopf algebra structure suggests systematic non-perturbative completion is possible" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Dyson (1952) - original argument that QED series diverges; but convergence may hold for g-2 observable specifically", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Aoyama et al. (2019) - QED g-2 computation to 10th order; agreement with experiment to 12 significant figures", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-field-theory-x-combinatorics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-graph-bfs-speedup", "title": "Quantum walk-based graph algorithms provide provable quadratic speedup for element distinctness and triangle finding, but no superpolynomial speedup exists for generic BFS/SSSP due to lower bounds from quantum query complexity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ambainis (2007) quantum walk gives O(N^{2/3}) element distinctness vs O(N) classically — provable quadratic speedup", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Belovs (2012) learned graph technique gives O(N^{35/27}) triangle detection — below classical Ω(N^{4/3})", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Childs & Kothari (2010) SSSP has no superpolynomial quantum speedup under OR-oracle model", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-graph-bfs-speedup.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-gravity-holography-ads-cft", "title": "The AdS/CFT correspondence (Maldacena 1997) provides the correct mathematical framework for quantum gravity: quantum gravity in d+1 dimensional Anti-de Sitter space is exactly dual to a conformal field theory in d dimensions, implying that bulk spacetime geometry is an emergent property of boundary quantum entanglement structure (Ryu-Takayanagi formula: S_bulk = Area/4G_N).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.92, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1023/A:1026654312961", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Maldacena (1997) - original AdS/CFT conjecture; 10^10+ citations; most tested conjecture in string theory" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.181602", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Ryu & Takayanagi (2006) - holographic entanglement entropy: area formula connects bulk geometry to boundary entanglement" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Almheiri et al. (2021) - Page curve of black hole evaporation recovered via island formula in AdS/CFT" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-gravity-holography-ads-cft.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-group-roots-of-unity-modular", "title": "The representation theory of quantum groups U_q(g) at q a root of unity is equivalent to the modular representation theory of the corresponding algebraic group G over a field of characteristic p — the Lusztig character formula connects quantum group representations at root of unity to Verma module composition factors in positive characteristic.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kazhdan & Lusztig (1994) tensor equivalence of U_q(sl_2) at root of unity with G_1T-modules — modular representation connection established", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Andersen et al. (1994) modular representations and Lusztig conjecture: quantum group characters at root of unity equal modular characters (verified for p large)", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Williamson (2017) counterexamples to Lusztig character formula for small p — full equivalence breaks down at small primes", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-group-roots-of-unity-modular.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-probability-gleason-measure-uniqueness", "title": "Gleason's theorem establishes that the Born rule is the unique probability measure on the Hilbert space lattice of projections, implying that the probabilistic structure of quantum mechanics is not an additional postulate but a mathematical consequence of the Hilbert space formalism for dimensions ≥ 3.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gleason (1957) Measures on the closed subspaces of a Hilbert space; J Math Mech 6:885 — the original proof of uniqueness for dim ≥ 3" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.49.3221", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Busch (2003) Quantum states and generalized observables — extension of Gleason to POVMs, shows uniqueness extends to generalized measurements" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Pitowsky (2003) Betting on the Outcomes of Measurements — Bayesian interpretation of Gleason's theorem, connects to Dutch-book coherence arguments" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-probability-gleason-measure-uniqueness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-repeater-multimode-memory-distance", "title": "Multiplexed quantum repeaters using multimode quantum memories (AFC protocol in Pr³⁺:Y₂SiO₅) with N = 100+ temporal modes and nestedentanglement swapping can distribute entanglement at rates > 1 Hz over 1000 km fiber, approaching the fundamental PLOB bound rate × distance limit and enabling practical intercontinental quantum key distribution without satellite links.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Sangouard et al. (2011) Rev Mod Phys 83:33 — quantum repeater review", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "note": "Lago-Rivera et al. (2021) Nature 594:37 — telecom-wavelength quantum memory", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "note": "Pirandola et al. (2017) Nat Commun 8:15043 — PLOB repeaterless bound", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-repeater-multimode-memory-distance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-solitons-bethe-ansatz-connection-quantum-inverse-scattering", "title": "The quantum inverse scattering method (Faddeev-Takhtajan-Sklyanin, 1978-1982) is the exact quantum analog of the classical inverse scattering transform, with the quantum R-matrix playing the role of the classical Lax pair, and the Bethe ansatz eigenvalues corresponding to quantized soliton momenta — unifying classical and quantum integrability into a single algebraic framework (Yangians).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Faddeev & Takhtajan (1979) Russ Math Surv 34:11 — quantum inverse scattering method: Yang-Baxter equation R₁₂R₁₃R₂₃ = R₂₃R₁₃R₁₂ is the quantum analog of the Lax compatibility condition [L₁,L₂] = 0 for classical integrable systems; transfer matrix T(u) = Tr R generates all commuting conserved quantities", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Drinfeld (1985) — Yangian Y(𝔤) is the quantum group symmetry algebra of quantum integrable systems; its classical limit (ℏ→0) recovers the classical r-matrix of Lax pair systems; this is the formal algebraic unification of classical and quantum integrability", "confidence": 0.87 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bethe (1931) Z Phys 71:205 — Bethe ansatz eigenvalues of XXX Heisenberg chain; connection to soliton momenta made explicit by Sutherland (1978): Bethe roots are quantized momenta of quantum soliton excitations (magnons = discretized spin waves)", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Correspondence between classical N-soliton solutions and quantum Bethe ansatz is exact only for specific integrable models (NLS/Lieb-Liniger, KdV/Benjamin-Ono). For 2D quantum field theories (Thirring model, sine-Gordon QFT), the classical-quantum correspondence requires careful renormalization and is not always exact — Coleman duality (1975) is approximate in some regimes", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-solitons-bethe-ansatz-connection-quantum-inverse-scattering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-spectral-gap-computational-complexity", "title": "The spectral gap of the Hamiltonian for local quantum systems determines computational complexity class membership — gapped systems are classically simulable", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Hastings (2007) - area law for gapped 1D Hamiltonians implies efficient MPS representation (classical simulability)" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "arxiv": "0901.4107", "note": "Cubitt, Perez-Garcia & Wolf (2015) - undecidability of spectral gap; connects to halting problem" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-spectral-gap-computational-complexity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-walk-spatial-search-optimal", "title": "Continuous-time quantum walk search on an N-node graph achieves optimal O(sqrt(N)) query complexity if and only if the graph's spectral gap Delta_lambda satisfies Delta_lambda = O(1/N), predicting that complete graphs and hypercubes achieve Grover-optimal speedup while expander graphs with O(1) spectral gaps do not.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/1060590.1060639", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Szegedy (2004) proves quantum walk speedup is determined by the classical spectral gap; graphs with small spectral gaps allow quantum interference to accumulate amplitude, achieving optimal search.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.180501", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Childs et al. (2009) prove continuous-time quantum walk is universal for quantum computation; complete graphs with small spectral gap Delta=2/N achieve O(sqrt(N)) search, consistent with the hypothesis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-walk-spatial-search-optimal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-walk-x-classical-random-walk", "title": "Continuous-time quantum walk on the complete bipartite graph K_{N,N} achieves hitting time O(N^(1/2)) vs. O(N) classically, and this exponential speedup persists under dephasing noise up to decoherence rate γ_c ≈ 1/(2N·t_walk), predicting a noise threshold that is reachable with current superconducting qubit coherence times for N ≤ 100", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.48.1687", "note": "Aharonov et al. — Quantum walks and search algorithms; quadratic speedup foundation", "confidence": 0.81 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Childs et al. (2003) — Exponential algorithmic speedup by quantum walk; STOC 2003:59", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-walk-x-classical-random-walk.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quantum-zeno-like-slowing-in-attention-networks", "title": "Increasing self-report probe frequency over a controlled range will produce a non-monotonic change in the hazard rate of internal strategy switches, consistent with a Zeno-like stabilization regime at intermediate rates in a perceptual discrimination task.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.74.1259", "note": "Demonstrates measurement-induced slowing in a controlled quantum system" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Cognitive dynamics may be dominated by classical adaptation rather than projection-like readouts" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quantum-zeno-like-slowing-in-attention-networks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quasar-feedback-kinetic-mode-quenching-mechanism", "title": "Quasar feedback operates in two modes — radiative (quasar mode, high Eddington ratio, outflows driven by radiation pressure) during cosmic noon (z~2-3) and kinetic (jet mode, low Eddington, radio jets stirring the ICM) at low redshift — together quenching ~90% of massive galaxy star formation over cosmic time", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-082708-101632", "note": "Fabian (2012) — Observational evidence of AGN feedback; ARA&A 50:455", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stt1431", "note": "Cicone et al. (2014) — Massive quasar-driven outflows detect v~1000 km/s molecular gas", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-120420-015300", "note": "Harrison & Ramos Almeida (2024) — AGN outflow review: how feedback affects host galaxies", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quasar-feedback-kinetic-mode-quenching-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quasar-feedback-kinetic-mode-quenching", "title": "Quasar feedback quenches star formation in massive galaxies primarily through kinetic-mode AGN jets that heat the circumgalactic medium (CGM) and prevent gas cooling, rather than radiative-mode winds ejecting ISM gas; the transition between modes occurs at critical black hole mass M_BH ~ 10^8 solar masses.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-082214-122316", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Fabian (2012) - observational evidence for AGN feedback; X-ray cavities in cluster BCGs" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1652-y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Weinberger et al. (2017) - IllustrisTNG: kinetic-mode AGN feedback reproduces quenched fraction" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Morganti (2017) - radio jet interactions with ISM: direct evidence for kinetic feedback in early-type galaxies" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quasar-feedback-kinetic-mode-quenching.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quasicrystal-phason-strain-stability", "title": "Quasicrystalline phases are thermodynamically stabilized (not merely metastable) in specific alloy compositions by phason entropy and vibrational entropy contributions to the free energy — the stability field is bounded by an effective phason elastic constant κ_φ that determines whether the approximant or quasicrystal phase is thermodynamically favored.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Tsai et al. (1987) AlCuFe icosahedral quasicrystal thermodynamically stable — annealing improves structural order vs. metastable QC that disorder", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Widom (1991) phason entropy stabilization: phason fluctuations contribute k_B T per site entropy — sufficient to stabilize QC over approximant at high T", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Grushko & Stafford (1989) composition windows for stable QC in AlCuFe: narrow ±0.5 at% — consistent with thermodynamic rather than kinetic stability", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quasicrystal-phason-strain-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-quorum-thresholds-are-ess-under-stochastic-demography", "title": "In synthetic Pseudomonas populations on patterned surfaces, manipulating colony clustering will shift cheater frequency trends in the direction predicted by spatial public goods games with a sharp QS threshold.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.57, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0608255103", "note": "Explicit cooperation framing for bacterial communication systems" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1128/MMBR.00099-08", "note": "QS molecular mechanisms that instantiate threshold collective behavior" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-quorum-thresholds-are-ess-under-stochastic-demography.yaml" }, { "id": "h-r-process-cgm-metal-enrichment", "title": "The r-process element abundance pattern in the circumgalactic medium records the neutron star merger rate history of the host galaxy, and CGM r-process enrichment should be spatially offset from the stellar disk by the kick velocities of neutron star binaries, providing a direct observational test of the dominant r-process site.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3847/2041-8213/aa920c", "note": "Abbott et al. (2017) — GW170817 kilonova spectroscopy confirms neutron star mergers are r-process sites; ejecta mass and composition quantified.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stab1866", "note": "Côté et al. (2019) — chemical evolution models with NS merger yields predict [Eu/Fe] vs [Fe/H] trends; CGM enrichment depends critically on merger rate and NS kick velocities.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stz2341", "note": "Beniamini & Piran (2019) — NS binary merger delay times and kicks predict r-process elements should be found 5-15 kpc from the galactic disk at solar metallicity.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-r-process-cgm-metal-enrichment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-r-process-neutron-star-merger-dominant", "title": "Neutron star mergers account for more than 50% of the Milky Way's r-process europium budget, and galactic chemical evolution models incorporating a neutron-star-merger delay-time distribution with t_min < 100 Myr and a power-law slope of -1 will reproduce the observed [Eu/Fe] scatter at [Fe/H] < -2 within 0.3 dex", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.93.015002", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Cowan et al. (2021) — GW170817 confirms NS merger r-process; but GCE scatter remains difficult to explain" }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.astro.46.060407.145207", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Arnould et al. (2007) — r-process uncertainties; need for short delay-time channel" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Siegel et al. (2019) — collapsar r-process alternative with short delay times" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-r-process-neutron-star-merger-dominant.yaml" }, { "id": "h-radiation-damage-ballistic-annealing", "title": "Radiation damage recovery in nuclear materials is dominated by recombination of vacancy-interstitial pairs during the thermal spike (< 10 ps) — ballistic annealing recombines > 90% of Frenkel pairs in metals — and the long-term microstructural evolution is determined by the surviving defect cluster spectrum which can be predicted from molecular dynamics cascade simulations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Averback & Diaz de la Rubia (1998) MD simulations of displacement cascades: 95% recombination within 10 ps thermal spike — surviving clusters form within cascade", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Nordlund et al. (2018) primary damage state review: cluster fraction scales universally with PKA energy — MD cascade results transferable across metals", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Was (2016) radiation materials science: long-term swelling and embrittlement driven by immobile vacancy cluster accumulation — not interstitial sinks", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-radiation-damage-ballistic-annealing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-radio-axion-like-dm-constraints", "title": "Targeted radio-line and haloscope-style programs can constrain or detect axion-like ultralight dark matter in specific mass–coupling windows", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-01", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.07975", "note": "Example open-access survey of detection concepts; cite primary literature in follow-up PRs" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6310673/", "note": "Open-access discussion of axion DM parameter space (metadata link only)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-radio-axion-like-dm-constraints.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ramsey-optimal-carbon-price-tipping-points", "title": "Incorporating stochastic climate tipping points into the DICE integrated assessment model raises the optimal Pigouvian carbon price by 30-50% above the Nordhaus deterministic baseline, converging the Nordhaus-Stern SCC gap by half when using empirically-calibrated tipping point probabilities.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1162/rest.89.1.1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Nordhaus (2007) DICE baseline — deterministic damage function" }, { "doi": "10.1093/reep/rep005", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Weitzman (2009) shows fat tails dramatically increase optimal carbon price" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Lenton et al. (2018) tipping cascade probabilities for IAM calibration" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ramsey-optimal-carbon-price-tipping-points.yaml" }, { "id": "h-random-circuit-sampling-classical-boundary-fidelity", "title": "The boundary between classically hard and classically easy random circuit sampling is a phase transition at cross-entropy benchmarking fidelity F* = exp(-n × ε_gate), where n is qubit count and ε_gate is per-gate error rate, and current NISQ devices operate above this threshold for n > 50 qubits at realistic gate errors.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41567-018-0318-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Boixo et al. (2018) Nat Phys — XEB fidelity: F ≈ exp(-n·d·ε) where d is depth; anti-concentration occurs at d > log(n); classical simulation cost scales as exp(n) when F < 1/exp(1) threshold for tensor network contraction to fail\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-019-1666-5", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.81, "note": "Arute et al. (2019) — 53-qubit Sycamore at 20 cycles; XEB = 0.224% (above classical threshold by their estimate); subsequent classical simulation claims (IBM) challenged whether F* threshold was actually crossed\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.180502", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Liu et al. (2021) PRL — tensor network contraction algorithms achieve classical simulation of RCS at depth 20 for 30 qubits in minutes; depth threshold for hardness shifts upward as algorithms improve, making F* time-dependent\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-random-circuit-sampling-classical-boundary-fidelity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-random-matrix-universality-log-gas", "title": "Random matrix universality arises because eigenvalue statistics of large random matrices are governed by a two-dimensional log-gas (Dyson gas) at inverse temperature β = 1/2/4, and the universality class (GUE, GOE, GSE) is determined solely by the symmetry of the underlying dynamical system — a prediction falsifiable by measuring eigenvalue spacing distributions in new systems.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.52.1", "note": "Bohigas et al. (1984) — Bohigas-Giannoni-Schmit conjecture: chaotic quantum systems have GUE eigenvalue statistics; integrable systems have Poisson.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/3090168", "note": "Odlyzko (1987) — non-trivial zeros of Riemann zeta function have GUE eigenvalue statistics; deep connection between number theory and random matrices.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-random-matrix-universality-log-gas.yaml" }, { "id": "h-random-walk-x-brownian-motion", "title": "Anomalous diffusion of proteins on cell membranes follows a fractional Brownian motion scaling law with Hurst exponent H < 0.5 (subdiffusion) due to macromolecular crowding, transitioning to normal diffusion at long times when confinement domains are escaped\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1090/S0002-9947-1951-0040613-0", "note": "Donsker (1951) - Invariance principle for probability limit theorems; foundational random walk theory", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Saxton & Jacobson (1997) - Single-particle tracking: applications to membrane dynamics; Annu Rev Biophys Biomol Struct 26:373; doi:10.1146/annurev.biophys.26.1.373", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-random-walk-x-brownian-motion.yaml" }, { "id": "h-range-shift-thermal-safety-margin", "title": "Species' ability to track climate change through range shifts is primarily determined by the ratio of required range shift velocity to maximum dispersal velocity, modulated by the species' thermal safety margin; species with thermal safety margins below 2°C and dispersal velocities below the climate velocity (currently ~2.7 km/decade globally) face extinction even when habitat is available.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1220547", "note": "Sunday et al. (2012) — thermal safety margins from >2000 species; tropical species operate nearest to thermal limits; dispersal-climate velocity gap predicts extinction.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature08649", "note": "Loarie et al. (2009) — climate velocity measured globally; biomes differ by order of magnitude; mountains and poles move fastest relative to species range.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1116765109", "note": "Chen et al. (2011) — meta-analysis of observed range shifts; mean poleward shift 16 km/decade; 34% of species tracking slower than climate velocity.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-range-shift-thermal-safety-margin.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rational-cryptography-blockchain-nash", "title": "Bitcoin mining with selfish mining strategy is a Nash equilibrium for all pool sizes above 25% hashrate, and the game-theoretic security threshold is lower than the computational security threshold of 51%\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/3-540-44647-8_1", "note": "Goldreich (2001) - Foundations of cryptography; computational security definitions", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Eyal & Sirer (2014) - Majority is not enough: Bitcoin mining is vulnerable; FC 2014 — selfish mining Nash equilibrium", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Sapirshtein et al. (2016) - Optimal selfish mining strategies in Bitcoin; FC 2016 — optimal strategy for all hashrates", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rational-cryptography-blockchain-nash.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rational-inattention-x-entropy", "title": "Consumers optimally allocate attention across goods following the information- theoretic water-filling rule, concentrating attention on highest-variance price categories, producing predictable patterns in scanner-data price adjustment frequencies that match rational inattention predictions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.06.002", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Sims (2003) - rational inattention model derives price stickiness from Shannon cost" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.05.006", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Mackowiak & Wiederholt (2009) - optimal sticky prices: firms track aggregate shocks less than idiosyncratic" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Woodford (2009) - information-constrained state-dependent pricing; attention to large shocks", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rational-inattention-x-entropy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rayleigh-benard-turbulence-bifurcation-cascade", "title": "The transition to turbulence in Rayleigh-Bénard convection follows a finite sequence of identifiable bifurcations (pitchfork, Hopf, torus, chaos) whose order and critical Ra values can be predicted from a low-dimensional center-manifold reduction without full DNS, enabling efficient turbulence onset prediction for engineering heat transfer applications.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Libchaber and Maurer (1982) experimental observation of period-doubling route to chaos in liquid helium Rayleigh-Bénard convection — confirmed Feigenbaum universality in a physical fluid system.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Manneville and Pomeau (1979) identified the intermittency route to chaos as an alternative to period-doubling — both routes occur in Bénard convection depending on Prandtl number and aspect ratio, consistent with bifurcation theory.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "At high Ra (Ra >> Ra_c), turbulence is fully developed and the bifurcation cascade picture breaks down — no low-dimensional description captures turbulent convection, and the route-to-chaos prediction fails for large aspect ratio cells.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rayleigh-benard-turbulence-bifurcation-cascade.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reaction-networks-x-petri-nets", "title": "The MAPK signaling cascade (Erk phosphorylation cycle) is a persistent chemical reaction network by the deficiency zero theorem applied to its Petri net siphon structure, predicting that Erk can never be fully dephosphorylated from any positive initial condition regardless of kinase/phosphatase ratio", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/978-3-642-14684-8_1", "note": "Angeli (2011) — Petri nets and chemical reaction networks; CRN persistence theory", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Shinar & Feinberg (2010) — Structural sources of robustness in biochemical reaction networks; Science 327:1389", "confidence": 0.79 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reaction-networks-x-petri-nets.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reaction-norm-slope-predicts-climate-tracking", "title": "The standing genetic variance in reaction norm slope within a population is the primary determinant of its capacity to track rapid environmental change through plasticity, with populations showing >0.05 h² for plasticity slope tracking 2°C/decade warming without demographic decline\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reaction-norm-slope-predicts-climate-tracking.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reaction-time-tail-scales-with-effective-barrier-height", "title": "Across two-choice perceptual tasks, fitted drift-diffusion threshold separation will predict the exponential tail scale of correct reaction times in the direction expected from Kramers first-passage asymptotics; falsified if tail scale is dominated by nondecision-time variation after hierarchical fitting.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.36, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0031-8914(40)90098-2", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Kramers (1940) Brownian motion in a field of force and reaction-rate model." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reaction-time-tail-scales-with-effective-barrier-height.yaml" }, { "id": "h-real-hierarchies-embed-better-in-hyperbolic-space", "title": "For a held-out suite of biological pathway graphs with known module trees, hyperbolic embeddings will reduce link-prediction distortion versus best Euclidean baselines by a consistent margin at matched dimension.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "arxiv": "1705.08039", "note": "Demonstrates hierarchical structure benefits from hyperbolic geometry" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "arxiv": "1806.03417", "note": "Lorentz model refinement for continuous hierarchies" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Real graphs are rarely pure trees; distortion decomposition is needed" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-real-hierarchies-embed-better-in-hyperbolic-space.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reconsolidation-ampar-endocytosis-labilisation", "title": "Memory labilisation during reconsolidation is mechanistically implemented by GluA1 AMPAR endocytosis specifically at the dendritic spines belonging to the reactivated engram cells, measurable as a >30% reduction in GluA1 surface expression within 30 min of retrieval in identified amygdala engram neurons.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35021052", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Nader 2000 – protein synthesis required for reconsolidation; consistent with AMPAR turnover" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2014.11.010", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "AMPAR trafficking during LTP/LTD; endocytosis as labilisation mechanism" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reconsolidation-ampar-endocytosis-labilisation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-recurrent-processing-consciousness", "title": "Recurrent processing in higher cortical areas is necessary and sufficient for phenomenal consciousness, and feedforward-only processing generates no subjective experience", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41583-021-00490-4", "note": "Recurrent processing theory review and evidence synthesis (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "related", "note": "TMS suppression of occipital feedback abolishes visual awareness without affecting early evoked responses" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Some masking paradigms suggest feedforward processing can support brief awareness" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-recurrent-processing-consciousness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-red-queen-cycling-sustained-by-spatial-structure", "title": "Red Queen allele cycling is sustained in nature primarily by spatial heterogeneity in host-parasite encounter rates rather than by intrinsic cycle dynamics, with cycling amplitude scaling with landscape connectivity between host subpopulations\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-red-queen-cycling-sustained-by-spatial-structure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-red-queen-ess-influenza-diversity-prediction", "title": "The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the influenza-immune system game predicts the number of co-circulating antigenic variants and their relative frequencies, with the ESS diversity determined by the cross-reactivity matrix of human immune responses to historical strains.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.7754375", "note": "Nowak & May (1994) Science — diversity of viral quasi-species is set by cross-immunity structure; replicator dynamics predict stable coexistence of N strains if cross-immunity matrix has N positive eigenvalues.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0609148104", "note": "Smith et al. (2004) Science — antigenic cartography of influenza H3N2; provides empirical cross-reactivity data for parameterizing the ESS model.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1093091", "note": "Ferguson et al. (2003) Science — epidemiological model of influenza antigenic evolution; does not use ESS framework but shows drift rate consistent with immune pressure from past strains.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-red-queen-ess-influenza-diversity-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-red-sequence-age-spreads-constrain-quenching-models", "title": "Within narrow stellar mass bins at z≈0.1, the intrinsic scatter of rest-frame colors on the red sequence will correlate more strongly with halo-centric distance in clusters than with bulge-to-total ratio, if environmental quenching dominates late-time scatter.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.54, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1086/323304", "note": "Empirical definition and context of the red sequence in local samples" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1086/375002", "note": "Links passive evolution timescales to red sequence buildup" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-red-sequence-age-spreads-constrain-quenching-models.yaml" }, { "id": "h-redfield-growth-rate-rg-fixed-point", "title": "The Redfield ratio C:N:P=106:16:1 is a renormalization-group fixed point of phytoplankton evolutionary dynamics: perturbations in growth rate shift elemental ratios predictably along the Growth Rate Hypothesis manifold", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1046/j.1461-0248.2001.00249.x", "note": "Elser et al. (2000) - Growth Rate Hypothesis: faster-growing organisms have lower N:P, consistent with the GRH manifold" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1227379", "note": "Loladze & Elser (2011) - ribosomal RNA stoichiometry constraint explains P-richness" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Empirical: N:P ratio varies 5-fold across phytoplankton species but ocean average converges to Redfield — consistent with an attractor, not a constraint" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Arrigo (2005) showed Redfield ratio varies significantly with depth and latitude — challenges the universal fixed-point claim" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-redfield-growth-rate-rg-fixed-point.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reentrant-geometry-auxetic-impact-resistance", "title": "Re-entrant honeycomb auxetic structures exhibit 2-4× greater specific energy absorption under dynamic impact than conventional honeycomb structures of identical mass, due to lateral densification under the impact footprint\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reentrant-geometry-auxetic-impact-resistance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-regional-sea-level-acceleration-grd-fingerprint", "title": "Regional sea level accelerations exceeding the global mean by factors of 2-5 are primarily driven by gravitational-rotational-deformational (GRD) fingerprints of specific ice loss sources, particularly the Greenland Ice Sheet contributing disproportionate sea level rise to US East Coast and Antarctic melt contributing disproportionately to tropical Pacific regions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-earth-071114-040893", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Mitrovica et al. (2001, 2011) GRD fingerprint theory: melting of Greenland decreases gravitational attraction of ocean toward ice sheet, causing sea level fall near Greenland but 20-30% amplification on US East Coast relative to global mean.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1002/2016GL068560", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Kopp et al. (2017) tide gauge analysis: US East Coast sea level rise 1.5-4× global mean rate; GRD fingerprinting attributes 30-60% of the excess to Greenland mass loss.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03343-3", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "IMBIE Team (2020) Greenland mass balance synthesis: 1992-2018 Greenland contributed 10.8 mm to global SLR with accelerating trend post-2012.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-regional-sea-level-acceleration-grd-fingerprint.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reinforcement-learning-x-foraging-patch-models", "title": "Partially observable RL agents trained on synthetic patch worlds parameterized by hummingbird telemetry hazard statistics will match departure-time distributions closer than MVT thresholds when cue entropy exceeds calibrated bounds — falsifying deterministic MVT sufficiency under sensory limits.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.52, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1086/282878", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "MVT baseline predictions for fully observed patches" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reinforcement-learning-x-foraging-patch-models.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reionization-dominated-by-faint-galaxies", "title": "Cosmic reionization (z~6-12) was dominated by photons from numerous faint, low-mass galaxies (M_UV > -15) rather than rare bright quasars, with a reionization history consistent with optical depth tau_reion ~ 0.054", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1051/0004-6361/201833910", "note": "Planck Collaboration (2020) — tau_reion = 0.054 from CMB polarization", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3847/2041-8213/ab2fd3", "note": "Mason et al. (2019) — faint galaxies dominate ionizing photon budget", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.3847/1538-4357/ac1dfe", "note": "Robertson et al. (2022) — galaxy-driven reionization with JWST predictions", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reionization-dominated-by-faint-galaxies.yaml" }, { "id": "h-renormalization-group-deep-learning-criticality", "title": "Deep residual networks belong to the 2D Ising universality class — their generalisation-error scaling exponents match the Ising critical exponents beta=0.125, nu=1.0, and this class membership can be verified by finite-size scaling of the grokking transition across model sizes", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1109/cvpr.2016.90", "note": "He et al. (2016) ResNet — skip connections implement additive RG corrections; 219k citations", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.1410.3831", "note": "Mehta & Schwab (2014) — exact RG-deep learning mapping supports universality hypothesis", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2604.16431", "note": "Grokking phase transition paper — consistent with critical universality in neural networks", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-renormalization-group-deep-learning-criticality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-renormalization-group-universal-emergence-laws-cross-domain", "title": "Renormalization group (RG) fixed-point analysis applied to multi-scale data (neural spiking → population → brain area → behaviour, or individual trade → market → macro-economy) will identify universal effective theories at each coarse-graining level, with the RG flow predicting which micro-level parameters become irrelevant (emergent law is robust) vs. relevant (sensitive to details).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.177.4047.393", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Anderson (1972) — theoretical argument for RG as the mechanism of emergence; qualitative" }, { "doi": "10.1186/1471-2202-5-42", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Tononi (2004) IIT — quantitative emergence measure; not connected to RG formalism" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bialek et al. (2012) PNAS — information-theoretic RG-like coarse-graining of neural populations shows near-critical behavior; suggests RG fixed points exist in neural data" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-renormalization-group-universal-emergence-laws-cross-domain.yaml" }, { "id": "h-renormalization-x-compression", "title": "The information bottleneck rate-distortion functional evaluated on a 2D Ising model's spin field produces compression curves whose critical behavior matches the Ising universality class critical exponents (nu=1, eta=1/4) at the phase transition temperature.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s11538-017-0362-y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Koch-Janusz & Ringel (2018) - neural RG maximizing mutual information identifies relevant degrees of freedom at Ising critical point" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mehta & Schwab (2014) - exact mapping between restricted Boltzmann machines and variational RG; information compression analogy", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Tishby & Schwartz (2015) - information bottleneck in deep learning; rate-distortion as learning objective", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-renormalization-x-compression.yaml" }, { "id": "h-renyi-entropy-turbulence-universal-spectrum", "title": "The multifractal singularity spectrum f(alpha) of fully developed turbulence converges to a universal parabolic form in the limit Re -> infinity, derivable from the log-normal cascade model with a single intermittency parameter mu\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevA.33.1141", "note": "Halsey et al. (1986) - Multifractal spectra computed from Renyi entropy via Legendre transform; foundational formalism", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Frisch (1995) - Turbulence: the legacy of Kolmogorov; log-normal model with intermittency parameter mu ~ 0.2 for DNS data", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Benzi et al. (1993) - Extended self-similarity in turbulent flows; structure function scaling consistent with log-normal multifractal", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-renyi-entropy-turbulence-universal-spectrum.yaml" }, { "id": "h-replica-sparsity-predicts-factor-eigenvalue-noise-bulk", "title": "Sparsity patterns motivated by ultrametric clustering heuristics do not outperform Ledoit–Wolf shrinkage alone on realistic stationary bootstrap blocks of equity returns — falsified only if hierarchical sparsity priors yield statistically higher out-of-sample Sharpe after transaction costs on ≥15-year rolling windows with multiple-testing correction (**speculative finance probe**).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.21, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.83.1467", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.48, "note": "Empirical noise eigenvalue bulk benchmark from random-matrix finance literature." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-replica-sparsity-predicts-factor-eigenvalue-noise-bulk.yaml" }, { "id": "h-replica-symmetry-breaking-algorithm-hardness", "title": "The onset of first-order replica symmetry breaking in the random k-SAT energy landscape is the precise algorithmic threshold above which polynomial-time algorithms fail, and this threshold can be computed analytically via the 1-RSB cavity method for any k\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-replica-symmetry-breaking-algorithm-hardness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-replication-rate-scientific-progress-indicator", "title": "Field-level replication rates (proportion of published findings that replicate under direct replication) are the most valid indicator of scientific progress and predictive accuracy, outperforming citation counts and h-indices because they measure evidential content rather than social amplification — and fields with higher replication rates make more accurate quantitative predictions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Open Science Collaboration (2015) Science 349:aac4716 — Reproducibility Project: Psychology", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "note": "Camerer et al. (2018) Nat Hum Behav 2:637 — social science replication project", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "note": "Hirsch (2005) PNAS 102:16569 — h-index as citation metric", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-replication-rate-scientific-progress-indicator.yaml" }, { "id": "h-replicator-dynamics-ess-institutional-design", "title": "Social institutions that select for evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) rather than Nash equilibria are more robust to perturbation, because only ESS are asymptotically stable under replicator dynamics — policies that create ESS by making prosocial behaviour the unique stable fixed point will sustain cooperation without continuous enforcement.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511528446", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.81, "note": "Maynard Smith (1982) — ESS criterion: a strategy is stable if it resists invasion by mutants; only asymptotically stable equilibria under replicator dynamics; Nash equilibria that are not ESS are unstable to small perturbations\n" }, { "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511880865", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Sandholm (2011) — evolutionary stability in population games; perturbed best response dynamics converge to ESS; contractivity conditions for global stability; applied to traffic routing, public good provision\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1177328", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Rand et al. (2009) Science — cooperative strategies are ESS when punishment is credible; adding institutional punishment (third-party enforcement) converts the Nash equilibrium from defection-dominant to cooperation-dominant, consistent with ESS engineering hypothesis\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-replicator-dynamics-ess-institutional-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-replicator-residual-tests-improve-ess-prediction-under-competition", "title": "Posterior predictive residual tests comparing spatially explicit simulations to replicator reductions flag misspecified ESS predictions before policy-relevant trait forecasts are trusted.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.57, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/0025-5564(78)90077-9", "note": "Baseline dynamical system reference for ESS-linked fixed-point reasoning.", "confidence": 0.5 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-replicator-residual-tests-improve-ess-prediction-under-competition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-replicator-rl-convergence", "title": "Multi-agent reinforcement learning systems with policy gradient updates converge to evolutionarily stable strategies (rather than arbitrary Nash equilibria) when the learning rate schedule mimics natural selection timescales — that is, when the population diversity update is slow relative to within-agent adaptation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.97.17.9430", "note": "Sutton et al. (2000) policy gradient theorem: the update rule Δπ ∝ π · ∇V is exactly the replicator dynamics in the policy space. Therefore multi-agent policy gradient converges to the same fixed points as replicator dynamics — which includes Nash equilibria but preferentially reaches ESS under certain initialisation and learning rate conditions.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1901.08106", "note": "Balduzzi et al. (2018) game theory of gradient-based learning: gradient descent on zero-sum games cycles rather than converges; evolutionary dynamics (replicator) provides a framework for convergent multi-agent learning.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "In practice, multi-agent RL systems often cycle near Nash equilibria (gradient cycling) rather than converging to ESS — the replicator dynamics prediction is for the continuous-time limit, while RL uses discrete updates with finite step sizes. Discretisation errors may prevent convergence to ESS even if the continuous theory predicts it.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-replicator-rl-convergence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reptation-tube-model-constraint-release", "title": "The discrepancy between predicted (η ∝ N³) and observed (η ∝ N^3.4) viscosity exponents in entangled polymer melts is fully accounted for by contour-length fluctuations and constraint release acting together, and the combined model prediction converges to ν=3.4 in the experimentally accessible molecular weight range before asymptotically returning to ν=3 at N >> N_e.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "de Gennes (1979) Scaling Concepts in Polymer Physics — original reptation", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "note": "Doi & Edwards (1986) Theory of Polymer Dynamics — CLF and CR corrections", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "note": "Rubinstein & Colby (2003) Polymer Physics — empirical scaling exponents", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reptation-tube-model-constraint-release.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reservoir-computing-x-dynamical-systems", "title": "The optimal spectral radius ρ* for reservoir computing scales logarithmically with required memory horizon T: ρ* = 1 - c/T for some task-independent constant c, providing a closed-form design rule that outperforms heuristic tuning by 20% on benchmark time series tasks", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1162/089976602760407955", "note": "Jaeger & Haas — echo state networks and memory-nonlinearity trade-off at ρ ≈ 1", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Dambre et al. (2012) — information processing capacity of dynamical systems; Sci Rep 2:514", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reservoir-computing-x-dynamical-systems.yaml" }, { "id": "h-residual-feature-normalization-reduces-histology-site-shift-error", "title": "Residual networks with stain-aware feature normalization reduce external-site histopathology classification error versus standard normalization.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1512.03385", "note": "Residual blocks improve optimization and representation depth.", "confidence": 0.67 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-residual-feature-normalization-reduces-histology-site-shift-error.yaml" }, { "id": "h-resonant-wpt-ev-charging-grid-integration", "title": "Dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT) for electric vehicles — resonant inductive charging embedded in road surfaces — is technically feasible at >85% efficiency for vehicles travelling at highway speeds, and would eliminate range anxiety if deployed on 10–20% of highway lane-kilometres\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "KAIST OLEV (Online Electric Vehicle) project demonstrated 60–85% DWPT efficiency at 100 km/h using shaped magnetic field technology; deployed on campus shuttle routes in South Korea." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Theoretical analysis (Bi et al. 2016, IEEE Trans. Ind. Electron.) shows kQ >> 1 is achievable with roadway coil arrays at 20–30 kW per charging pad at highway speeds." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Infrastructure cost ($1-3M/km for roadway DWPT installation) is currently 10-30× higher than conventional charging infrastructure on a per-kWh-delivered basis, making deployment economics uncertain." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-resonant-wpt-ev-charging-grid-integration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-resurgence-connects-perturbative-nonperturbative-qft", "title": "Resurgence theory can systematically reconstruct the full non-perturbative content of four-dimensional quantum field theories from the divergence pattern of their perturbation series, making transseries the correct mathematical language for QFT.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Dunne & Ünsal (2012-2016) demonstrated resurgence in quantum mechanics and 2D QFTs — non-perturbative contributions (instantons) are encoded in the large-order behavior of perturbation series" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Écalle (1981) resurgence theory provides the mathematical framework: Borel-Laplace resummation of transseries; alien calculus connects different sectors" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Argyres & Ünsal (2012): neutral bisphaleron contributions in QCD are precisely encoded in the perturbative large-order behavior — resurgence works quantitatively in a 4D-like theory" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Renormalon singularities in QCD (on positive Borel axis) obstruct simple Borel resummation — whether OPE condensates cancel renormalon ambiguities in all cases is unproven" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-resurgence-connects-perturbative-nonperturbative-qft.yaml" }, { "id": "h-retinal-wave-bandwidth-map-resolution-constraint", "title": "The spatial autocorrelation length of Stage II retinal waves sets an upper bound on retinotopic map resolution equal to the wave correlation length divided by 2π, matching the observed retinotopic map precision in C57BL/6 mice.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1254927", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Ackman 2012 – wave-driven retinotopic refinement; spatial structure of waves predicts map organisation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-retinal-wave-bandwidth-map-resolution-constraint.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reusable-rocket-guidance-limits", "title": "The guidance and control accuracy limit for propulsive rocket landing is set by sensor noise in the terminal descent phase (~50m altitude), with GPS-denied precision achievable to <1m CEP using optical flow + LIDAR fusion, and turnaround time limits dominated by heat shield inspection rather than propulsion.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5: demonstrated <1m landing accuracy on ASDS and 18-flight reuse — precision limit not yet structurally constraining", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Blackmore (2016) lossless convexification of powered descent guidance: real-time optimal trajectory generation achievable on flight computers", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Johnson et al. (2018) NASA TRN (terrain relative navigation): optical flow achieves 1m accuracy on Mars — applicable to rocket terminal descent", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reusable-rocket-guidance-limits.yaml" }, { "id": "h-revelation-principle-ai-alignment-mechanism", "title": "Training AI systems with incentive-compatible loss functions — where the AI agent's optimal strategy is to reveal its true internal state and capabilities (analogous to the revelation principle's direct mechanism) — will produce more robustly aligned systems than training with proxy rewards that incentivize misrepresentation of capabilities.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1287/moor.4.1.61", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Myerson (1979) Math Oper Res 4:61 — revelation principle" }, { "doi": "10.2307/2296779", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Mirrlees (1971) Rev Econ Stud 38:175 — mechanism design under information asymmetry" }, { "note": "Hurwicz (1973) Am Econ Rev 63:1 — mechanism design framework", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-revelation-principle-ai-alignment-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-reversible-computing-landauer-limit", "title": "A reversible adiabatic logic gate implemented in a quantum dot or molecular switch can perform one logical operation with energy dissipation within 100× the Landauer bound (100 kT ln 2) at 300K and 1 GHz clock rate, demonstrating that the gap between current transistors (~10⁶ kT) and the physical limit is an engineering problem, not a fundamental one.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature10872", "note": "Bérut et al. (2012) — Landauer bound experimentally verified for single-bit erasure in colloidal system" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1147/rd.173.0525", "note": "Bennett (1973) — theoretical demonstration that reversible computation has zero heat cost" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Franks et al. (2019) — adiabatic reversible gates in CMOS operate at ~300 kT per transition at 1 MHz; clock frequency and device capacitance are the main barriers to approaching the Landauer limit.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Practical adiabatic logic requires slow ramp speeds (adiabaticity condition: ramp time >> RC), limiting clock rates to MHz range for sub-100 kT operation. Achieving 100× Landauer at GHz requires device capacitances below 10^{-18} F — not yet demonstrated in scalable architectures.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-reversible-computing-landauer-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rewilding-trophic-cascade-predictability", "title": "The magnitude of trophic cascades following large predator reintroduction is predictable from prey biomass, prey behavioral plasticity, and landscape connectivity with R-squared greater than 0.6", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rewilding-trophic-cascade-predictability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rg-epsilon-expansion-convergence-nonperturbative-corrections", "title": "The ε-expansion for critical exponents in the Wilson-Fisher universality class is an asymptotic (not convergent) series with optimal truncation at order ε⁴-ε⁵, and non-perturbative corrections (instantons, renormalon poles) provide the dominant source of error in d=3 predictions, making conformal bootstrap the only route to sub-0.1% precision.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Le Guillou & Zinn-Justin (1977) Phys Rev Lett 39:95 — Borel resummation of 6-loop ε-expansion gives ν = 0.6290 ± 0.0025 for Ising (d=3), consistent with Monte Carlo but with asymptotic character demonstrated by sign alternation of high-order coefficients", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kompaniets & Panzer (2017) Phys Rev E 96:036101 — 6-loop MS-bar beta function computation confirms asymptotic behavior; optimal truncation at 5-loop", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kos et al. (2016) JHEP 2016:036 — conformal bootstrap gives ν = 0.62999 ± 0.00006, η = 0.03631 ± 0.00003 for 3d Ising — 100× more precise than ε-expansion, confirming bootstrap as superior method", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Kleinert resummation schemes claim convergent Padé-Borel resummation for ε-expansion at any order — disputed by analysis of large-order behavior using instanton contributions", "confidence": 0.4 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rg-epsilon-expansion-convergence-nonperturbative-corrections.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rg-ml-universality-classes", "title": "Deep neural networks trained on data with the same long-range correlation structure (same RG universality class) converge to representations with the same effective dimensionality and information compression ratio, regardless of architecture details.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1710026115", "note": "Mehta & Schwab (2014) — exact mapping between variational RG and restricted Boltzmann machines" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevX.8.031003", "note": "Koch-Janusz & Ringel (2018) — mutual information maximization connects RG and representation learning" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rg-ml-universality-classes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rg-universality-neural-network-criticality", "title": "Deep neural networks at the edge of chaos (criticality) exhibit renormalization group fixed-point behavior: representations across network layers correspond to RG flow toward an IR fixed point, and the universality class of the fixed point determines generalization capacity independent of architecture details.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1806579115", "note": "Mehta & Schwab (2014) — exact RG (variational RG) applied to Ising model and compared to restricted Boltzmann machine; demonstrates layer-by-layer coarse-graining correspondence.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevX.11.011052", "note": "Erdmenger et al. (2021) — holographic RG flow and deep neural networks; AdS/CFT provides a formal framework for understanding deep network depth as RG scale.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Poole et al. (2016) NIPS — \"edge of chaos\" in random deep networks: signal propagation criticality at specific weight variance corresponds to RG fixed point.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rg-universality-neural-network-criticality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ribosome-kinetics-queuing-theory", "title": "Replacing the slowest 5 codons (bottom 5th percentile tAI) in a reporter gene with synonymous fast codons will increase protein yield by 3-8x in human HEK293 cells, as predicted by TASEP bottleneck theory", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.68.021910", "note": "Shaw et al. (2003) TASEP model for protein synthesis", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1168978", "note": "Ingolia et al. (2009) ribosome profiling genome-wide", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ribosome-kinetics-queuing-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-riboswitch-kinetic-proofreading-cotranscriptional", "title": "Cotranscriptional folding creates a kinetic proofreading window for riboswitch sensing: only ligands that bind with k_on > RNAP elongation rate can fully activate riboswitch switching, predicting that slow-binding ligands with high thermodynamic affinity will fail to switch riboswitches in vivo\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-riboswitch-kinetic-proofreading-cotranscriptional.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ricci-flow-x-geometrization-program", "title": "Supplementary modules coupling discrete Ricci-flow toy simulations with Wilson RG lattice demos will raise conceptual quiz scores on curvature-flow versus coarse-graining distinctions compared with RG-only instruction — testing pedagogical complementarity without asserting physical equivalence.\n", "status": "draft", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.35, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.4310/jdg/1214436922", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Ricci flow mathematical object referenced for intuition calibration exercise design" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ricci-flow-x-geometrization-program.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ridge-penalty-matches-bayesian-width-in-neural-decoding", "title": "In bootstrap simulations with correlated Gaussian designs, calibrated empirical-Bayes ridge intervals will achieve closer nominal coverage than OLS intervals when eigenvalue spread exceeds a fixed threshold.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.52, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1080/00401706.1970.10488634", "note": "Foundational ridge shrinkage behavior" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7_7", "note": "MAP / prior interpretation commonly used in ML texts" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ridge-penalty-matches-bayesian-width-in-neural-decoding.yaml" }, { "id": "h-riemann-zeros-random-matrix-gue", "title": "The non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function have GUE (Gaussian Unitary Ensemble) eigenvalue statistics — specifically, the pair correlation function of consecutive zeros matches the Wigner surmise of GUE with a relative accuracy of < 0.1% at all separations — implying that the Riemann zeta function is the characteristic polynomial of an as-yet-unknown quantum Hamiltonian.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/S0962492901000028", "note": "Keating & Snaith (2000) — random matrix theory prediction of moments of the Riemann zeta function; GUE model matches number-theoretic computations.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Odlyzko (1987) — computational verification of GUE statistics for 10^7 consecutive zeros near height 10^12 on the critical line; agreement with Wigner surmise is < 1% across all spacings.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-riemann-zeros-random-matrix-gue.yaml" }, { "id": "h-risk-pooling-institutions-shift-evolutionary-stable-cooperation", "title": "Introducing a transparent threshold rule with probabilistic group loss in economic experiments will increase stable contributions when paired with cheap-talk punishment opportunities, matching evolutionary simulations near critical thresholds.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1011558108", "note": "Collective-risk framework linking stochastic group loss to cooperation" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1038/s41598-017-08140-6", "note": "Threshold effects in related risk-pooling game variants" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-risk-pooling-institutions-shift-evolutionary-stable-cooperation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-river-braiding-x-soc-like-morphodynamics", "title": "**[Speculative hypothesis subject to falsification]** Multi-decadal braided reach lidar stacks will fail finite-size scaling collapses onto SOC universality classes within pre-registered exponent bands — instead aligning with multifractal multiplicative-noise null simulators matched on variance and autocorrelation — refuting SOC-style criticality claims until new evidence arises.\n", "status": "draft", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.38, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.59.381", "type": "related", "note": "SOC reference baseline for scaling collapse methodology expectations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-river-braiding-x-soc-like-morphodynamics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-river-network-branching-optimality", "title": "River network branching geometry (Hack's law, Horton ratios) emerges from energy dissipation minimisation under erosion dynamics — network topology self-organises to the minimum energy dissipation state predicted by optimal channel network theory", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1029/WR028i004p01089", "note": "Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1992) — energy dissipation and fractal river networks", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.255.5045.641", "note": "Rinaldo et al. (1992) — minimum energy and fractal structures of drainage networks", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1029/2000WR900353", "note": "Kirchner (1993) — statistical inevitability of Horton ratios", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-river-network-branching-optimality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-river-network-ocn-energy-minimisation-test", "title": "River networks in geomorphically mature, tectonically stable regions have energy expenditure within 5% of the theoretical OCN minimum, while post-glacial or tectonically active networks show 15-30% excess energy expenditure; this difference is detectable from digital elevation models and predicts future network reorganisation direction.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511512865", "note": "Rodriguez-Iturbe & Rinaldo (1997) - OCN theory; energy minimisation principle", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1029/WR010i005p00969", "note": "Hack (1957) - empirical scaling laws; basis for theory", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-river-network-ocn-energy-minimisation-test.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rl-distributional-bellman-convergence", "title": "Distributional RL (C51/QR-DQN) converges in the deadly triad regime where standard Q-learning diverges because distributional Bellman operators preserve a stronger contraction in Wasserstein space\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF00992696", "note": "Watkins & Dayan (1992) - Q-learning convergence proof in tabular case; deadly triad breaks this in function approximation", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bellemare et al. (2017) - A distributional perspective on RL; ICML 2017 — C51 distributional Q-learning", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Rowland et al. (2018) - Analysis of distributional RL; ICML 2018 — Wasserstein contraction for distributional Bellman", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rl-distributional-bellman-convergence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rlde-satellite-colony-invasion-acceleration-branching-process", "title": "Stratified dispersal (rare long-distance events creating satellite colonies) produces invasion dynamics indistinguishable from fat-tailed kernel integrodifference models at landscape scales, and branching process theory predicts the effective spreading speed as a function of RLDE rate and establishment probability.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Shigesada et al. (1995) Theor Popul Biol 48:172 — stratified dispersal model: two-component dispersal (local Gaussian + rare RLDE Gaussian) predicts accelerating invasion front similar to fat-tailed kernel models at landscape scales", "confidence": 0.77 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kot et al. (1996) Ecology 77:2027 — IDE with Cauchy kernel (fat-tailed) produces accelerating invasion; effective speed at any time t is well approximated by assuming satellite colonies dominate front advance", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Lockwood et al. (2005) — empirical spread data for many North American invasions (deer, European starlings, zebra mussels) fit constant-speed models adequately when detection bias is corrected; true acceleration is rare", "confidence": 0.55 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Clark et al. (2001) Am Nat 157:537 — 'fat-tailed' dispersal hypothesis supported for tree invasion of post-glacial North America but requires careful separation from climate velocity effects", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rlde-satellite-colony-invasion-acceleration-branching-process.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rmt-covariance-cleaning-improves-single-cell-state-clustering", "title": "RMT-based covariance cleaning improves single-cell state clustering stability across sequencing batches.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.64, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/BF01015918", "note": "Marchenko-Pastur eigenvalue distribution.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rmt-covariance-cleaning-improves-single-cell-state-clustering.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rmt-selective-sweep-detection-power", "title": "The RMT eigenvalue spike test for selective sweeps achieves at least 2x higher power (at fixed 5% FPR) than Fst-based tests in admixed populations with at least 20% admixture, as measured on coalescent-simulated genomes with known sweep locations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pgen.0020190", "note": "Patterson, Price & Reich (2006) — RMT connection to population structure" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rmt-selective-sweep-detection-power.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rna-aptamer-selex-ml-design", "title": "RNA aptamer binding affinity and selectivity are governed by three physical principles — shape complementarity, charge complementarity, and base-stacking interactions — that can be parameterized from SELEX-seq data to train structure-conditioned language models that design novel high-affinity aptamers (K_d < 10 nM) with 50× less experimental screening than conventional SELEX.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.jmb.2014.06.006", "note": "Ellington & Szostak (1990) — original SELEX procedure; demonstrates in vitro selection of high-affinity aptamers from random sequence pools.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/nar/gkz1214", "note": "Jimenez et al. (2020) — structure-activity relationships in RNA aptamers; binding affinity correlates with predicted 3D structural features.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rna-aptamer-selex-ml-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rna-boltzmann-ensemble-functional-structure-selection", "title": "Functional RNA structures are thermodynamically selected to be near the free-energy minimum AND have low base-pair probability variance in the Boltzmann ensemble (high structural certainty), while non-functional RNAs of the same sequence composition show systematically higher ensemble variance.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1021/bi00413a004", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "McCaskill 1990 – partition function enables base-pair probability computation; ensemble analysis" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.jmb.2006.01.048", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Tinoco & Bustamante – thermodynamic stability and RNA function correlation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rna-boltzmann-ensemble-functional-structure-selection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rna-electrostatic-packaging-signal-design", "title": "The electrostatic interaction between RNA packaging signals and positively charged coat protein N-terminal tails can be computationally redesigned to create artificial virus-like particles (VLPs) that self-assemble around arbitrary RNA cargo with T-number selectivity, enabling programmable RNA delivery vectors.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Comas-Garcia et al. (2014) showed that alfalfa mosaic virus coat protein assembles around heterologous RNA in vitro when the RNA contains packaging signal stem-loops — demonstrating programmability of electrostatic co-assembly.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/35098134", "note": "Smith et al. (2001) phi29 packaging motor can encapsidate foreign dsDNA when provided in linearized form — demonstrates that packaging motors are not absolutely sequence-specific.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Packaging signal specificity in RNA viruses (MS2, hepatitis B) is sequence- specific, not purely electrostatic — redesigned RNA sequences that match charge but not sequence fail to package efficiently in these systems.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rna-electrostatic-packaging-signal-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rna-world-ribozyme-first-protein-emergence", "title": "The ribosome is a frozen accident of the RNA world: the peptidyl transferase center evolved as a ribozyme before proteins existed, and the gradual replacement of ribozyme catalysts by protein enzymes occurred via a Darwinian takeover in which RNA retained only the reactions it could not be displaced from.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1162443", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Steitz & Moore (2003) RNA, the first macromolecular catalyst — crystal structures of ribosome show PTC is entirely RNA, no protein within 18 Å of the catalytic site" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0808376106", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Bokov & Steinberg (2009) A single phylogenetic analysis identifies ancient RNA additions to the ribosome — phylogenetic reconstruction of ribosome evolution identifies a primordial RNA core" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Jeffares, Poole & Penny (1998) Relics from the RNA world — systematic inventory of modern ribozymes as fossils of the RNA world: Group I/II introns, RNase P, snRNPs" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1103196", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Yusupov et al. (2001) Crystal structure of the ribosome at 5.5 Å resolution — first high-resolution ribosome structure confirming RNA-based active site" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rna-world-ribozyme-first-protein-emergence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-robust-control-lmi-neural-network-stability-certificates", "title": "Neural network Lyapunov certificates trained with incremental quadratic constraint (IQC) multipliers provide H∞ stability bounds for nonlinear dynamical systems of dimension n ≤ 100 with structured uncertainty, achieving within 15% of SOS-optimal γ while requiring 1000× less computation — enabling real-time certified-safe autonomous vehicle controllers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Fazlyab et al. (2020) IEEE TAC — neural Lyapunov functions with IQC multipliers certify local stability for n=50 systems; computation 500× faster than SOS at degree 4; global stability not guaranteed", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Chang et al. (2019) NeurIPS — Lyapunov neural networks for control with formal verification; demonstrated on n=6 inverted pendulum and n=12 drone models; extension to n>50 not validated", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Parrilo (2000) PhD thesis — SOS certification scales O(n^{2d}); for n=50, d=4: O(50^8) ≈ 4×10¹³ operations; intractable in real-time (>1 hour vs. 10ms control cycle)", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Neural Lyapunov methods can fail at adversarial inputs outside training distribution; SMT-based verification (dReal, Z3) required for formal guarantees but does not scale to n>20 states with continuous dynamics", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-robust-control-lmi-neural-network-stability-certificates.yaml" }, { "id": "h-robust-statistics-deep-learning-improves-noisy-label-training", "title": "Applying robust statistics estimators (Huber loss, trimmed loss with formal breakdown point guarantees) to deep neural network training with noisy labels will outperform standard cross-entropy training and ad hoc noise-robust methods when label noise exceeds 20% ΓÇö because the formal 50% breakdown point provides a principled bound that heuristic methods lack.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Ghosh et al. (2017) NIPS: symmetric cross-entropy loss is robust to uniform label noise ΓÇö formal connection to M-estimator robustness properties" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Zhang & Sabuncu (2018): generalized cross entropy loss (GCE) with q parameter interpolates between cross-entropy (qΓåÆ0) and MAE (q=1) ΓÇö empirically more robust but without formal breakdown point analysis" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Menon et al. (2020) NeurIPS: theoretically connecting noisy label robust training to influence function bounded loss functions ΓÇö formal statistical robustness characterization for DNN training" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "DNNs are overparameterized and can memorize noise labels even with robust loss functions ΓÇö the robustness guarantee applies to shallow models and may not transfer to deep networks where memorization dominates" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-robust-statistics-deep-learning-improves-noisy-label-training.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rock-magnetism-single-domain-blocking-temperature", "title": "Single-domain magnetite grains with volumes measured by electron microscopy will have blocking temperatures predicted by the Stoner-Wohlfarth model T_B = K*V / (25*k_B) to within 10 K, demonstrating that the condensed matter micromagnetic model accurately describes thermoremanence acquisition in natural paleomagnetic samples without requiring empirical corrections", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1029/JB069i002p00467", "note": "Neel (1955) — blocking temperature derivation using SW model for single-domain particles", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.ea.19.050191.001313", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Dunlop & Ozdemir (1997) — blocking temperature predictions vs. observations summary" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Tarduno et al. (2006) — single-domain magnetite grains in charnockites: paleointensity implications" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rock-magnetism-single-domain-blocking-temperature.yaml" }, { "id": "h-room-acoustic-quality-predictable-from-geometry", "title": "Finite-element wave simulation of full concert hall geometry at all audible frequencies predicts subjective listener quality ratings significantly better than Sabine-era empirical metrics (T₆₀, IACC) calibrated on rectangular hall approximations", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Beranek (2004) Concert Halls and Opera Houses, 2nd ed., Springer — empirical IACC-quality correlations; limitations in non-rectangular halls noted", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Siltanen et al. (2010) — Full wave simulation for room acoustics, JASA; FDTD accuracy for complex geometries demonstrated", "confidence": 0.69 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lokki et al. (2011) — Preferred concert hall acoustics are explained by individual differences in ear canals, JASA — individual variation complicates universal metric", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-room-acoustic-quality-predictable-from-geometry.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rsg-transition-separates-polynomial-exponential-regimes", "title": "The replica symmetry breaking (clustering) transition in random k-SAT is the exact information-theoretic barrier separating polynomial-time-solvable from exponential-time- typical instances, such that efficient algorithms exist if and only if the clause density α lies below the clustering transition α_clust.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1073287", "note": "Mézard et al. (2002) Science — survey propagation derived from cavity method solves random 3-SAT up to the clustering transition; performance degrades above.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0703685104", "note": "Krzakala et al. (2007) PNAS — identifies distinct condensation and clustering thresholds; clustering threshold appears to be algorithmic barrier.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1145/3055399.3055476", "note": "Coja-Oghlan & Panagiotou (2017) STOC — polynomial-time algorithms for random k-SAT up to the satisfiability threshold exist for k large enough, partially challenging the clustering-barrier hypothesis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rsg-transition-separates-polynomial-exponential-regimes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-rule-110-minimal-universal-ca", "title": "Rule 110 is the simplest (by rule number and neighborhood size) universal cellular automaton in the elementary CA space, and any elementary CA with rule number less than 110 that exhibits Class IV behavior will be provably non-universal due to the absence of sufficient interaction complexity between persistent localized structures", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.55, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/978-3-540-92910-9_14", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Cook (2004) - proof that Rule 110 is Turing complete via tag system construction" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wolfram (2002) - Class IV behavior survey of 256 elementary CAs" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Martinez et al. (2011) - gliders in Rule 110; catalog of persistent structures" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-rule-110-minimal-universal-ca.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sacrificial-templating-vascular-network-bioprinting", "title": "A hierarchical sacrificial templating approach — combining bioprinted carbohydrate- glass macrovascular channels (50-500 μm) with self-assembled endothelial capillary networks (7-20 μm) connected via VEGF gradient-guided sprouting angiogenesis — can produce functional vascular networks sustaining cell viability throughout tissue constructs thicker than 5 mm.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nmat3357", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Miller et al. (2012) Nat Mater — carbohydrate glass sacrificial template for vascular channels in hydrogels; demonstrates perfusion and cell viability for 1 mm thick constructs" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1123657", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Huh et al. (2010) Science — lung-on-a-chip with microfluidic perfusion channels maintains epithelial and endothelial co-culture; demonstrates the principle of perfused microchannels sustaining cell viability" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41563-019-0531-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Grigoryan et al. (2019) Science — FRESH-printed vascular networks using photocurable carbohydrate glass; demonstrates 200 μm resolution and perfusable channels; 3 mm thick construct with core viability > 80%" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Vascular network alone is insufficient — anastomosis between printed macro-channels and self-assembled micro-capillaries has not been demonstrated in vitro; the connection step remains the key experimental barrier" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sacrificial-templating-vascular-network-bioprinting.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sai-regional-precipitation-monsoon-disruption", "title": "Stratospheric aerosol injection sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C would reduce African and Asian monsoon precipitation by 5-15% due to reduced sea surface temperature gradients, creating a geophysical moral hazard where SAI benefits for high-latitude nations impose precipitation costs on low-latitude agricultural regions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nclimate2882", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Robock et al. (2009) model ensemble: volcanic eruptions (SAI analogs) show consistent reduction in Sahel and Asian monsoon precipitation; multi-model signal is robust across GCM spread.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aat4398", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Irvine et al. (2019) Half-SAI scenario: halving warming with half SAI dose reduces risk of monsoon disruption compared to full offset but does not eliminate regional precipitation inequalities.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41612-019-0082-2", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Visioni et al. (2020) ozone depletion from SAI: sulfate aerosols catalyse heterogeneous chemistry depleting stratospheric ozone by 5-10% in polar regions even with sulfur loading 5-10 Tg S/yr.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sai-regional-precipitation-monsoon-disruption.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sars-cov2-network-percolation", "title": "The SARS-CoV-2 transmission network in urban populations exhibits power-law degree distribution tail behavior, placing the epidemic percolation threshold near zero and making universal elimination strategies systematically less efficient than hub-targeted interventions that exploit the network structure", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30183-5", "note": "Huang et al. (2020) COVID-19 clinical features — cluster-based spread pattern consistent with network-mediated transmission", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.3200", "note": "Newman et al. (2001) — networks with power-law degree distributions have near-zero percolation thresholds", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Endo et al. (2020) — overdispersion in SARS-CoV-2 (k ~ 0.1) consistent with heavy-tail contact network (Wellcome Open Research)", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sars-cov2-network-percolation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sat-spin-glass-algorithm-design", "title": "The RSB cavity method complexity parameter (Parisi parameter q) for random 3-SAT at clause density alpha correlates with the median DPLL runtime exponent with Spearman rank correlation greater than 0.85 across the range alpha = 3.5 to 5.0.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1073287", "note": "Mezard & Montanari (2002) — cavity method applied to random SAT" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sat-spin-glass-algorithm-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-satisfiability-x-constraint-propagation", "title": "Singleton arc consistency (SAC) is the maximum polynomial-time fixpoint that subsumes unit propagation and arc consistency for binary CSPs, and SAC-complete instances are exactly the hardest instances for DPLL-style SAT solvers", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/321356.321362", "note": "DPLL — unit propagation as the core CSP-SAT bridge algorithm", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bessiere & Régin (1997) — AC-6, optimal arc consistency algorithm; IJCAI 1997", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-satisfiability-x-constraint-propagation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-saturn-ring-viscosity-self-gravity-dominated", "title": "Angular momentum transport in Saturn's B ring is dominated by non-local gravitational (self-gravity wake) viscosity rather than local collisional viscosity, implying that standard alpha-disk models underestimate effective viscosity by a factor of 3-10 and that ring spreading timescales are correspondingly shorter than currently estimated.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.icarus.2007.02.013", "note": "Colwell et al. (2009) - self-gravity wakes identified as dominant B ring structure", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1051/0004-6361/201219240", "note": "Tiscareno et al. (2013) - viscosity from density wave analysis; non-local corrections noted", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-saturn-ring-viscosity-self-gravity-dominated.yaml" }, { "id": "h-scaffold-routing-constraint-metrics-predict-origami-yield", "title": "DNA origami designs with lower scaffold-routing dependency depth and fewer high-betweenness crossover bottlenecks will show higher assembly yield after controlling for staple melting temperature variance; falsified if graph metrics add less than 2 percent cross-validated explanatory power.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.36, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature04586", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Rothemund (2006) DNA origami by scaffolded folding." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-scaffold-routing-constraint-metrics-predict-origami-yield.yaml" }, { "id": "h-scale-free-criticality-brain-hub-vulnerability", "title": "Alzheimer's disease hub atrophy follows scale-free network targeted-attack percolation, predicting faster cognitive decline than random-lesion models and matching the empirical connectome gamma ≈ 2.1", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0501426102", "note": "Rich-club hubs in human connectome show disproportionate connectivity — targets for disease propagation" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Alzheimer's tau and amyloid pathology preferentially affects default mode network hubs (posterior cingulate, precuneus) — consistent with targeted attack" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.286.5439.509", "note": "Barabási & Albert (1999) - scale-free networks fragile to targeted hub attack; gamma ≤ 3 implies rapid connectivity collapse" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-scale-free-criticality-brain-hub-vulnerability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-scale-free-epidemic-threshold-vaccination", "title": "Targeted acquaintance immunization on scale-free contact networks achieves herd immunity with ≤15% of the population vaccinated, compared to ≥60% required by random vaccination, because hub removal destroys the giant component at the percolation threshold far more efficiently than random node removal.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128", "note": "Newman (2002) — percolation theory gives exact targeted vs. random vaccination efficiency" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.3200", "note": "Pastor-Satorras & Vespignani (2001) — scale-free networks have p_c → 0, making targeted vaccination critical" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.65.036133", "note": "Cohen et al. (2003) — acquaintance immunization strategy (sample neighbor, vaccinate neighbor)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Real contact networks are not pure scale-free (exponent γ > 3 is common in empirical data), which restores a non-zero threshold and reduces the efficiency gap between targeted and random vaccination.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-scale-free-epidemic-threshold-vaccination.yaml" }, { "id": "h-scc-convex-damages-fat-tails", "title": "The true social cost of carbon is dominated by low-probability, high-magnitude tail events (climate tipping point cascades above 4°C) that give the damage distribution a power-law tail, making the expected SCC at least 3× higher than standard quadratic damage function estimates and rendering near-zero discount rates normatively justified.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.9, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1257/jel.47.4.703", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Weitzman dismal theorem — fat tails make expected damages unbounded" }, { "doi": "10.1086/685908", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Howard & Sterner — damage function meta-analysis shows standard IAMs underestimate" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lenton et al. (2019) — climate tipping points: too risky to bet against" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.abn7950", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) — exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple tipping points" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-scc-convex-damages-fat-tails.yaml" }, { "id": "h-schelling-abm-segregation-threshold-real-world-preference-calibration", "title": "Schelling's ABM segregation threshold (fraction of same-type neighbors triggering moves) calibrated from stated racial residential preferences in American Housing Surveys will reproduce observed US metropolitan segregation patterns (measured by dissimilarity index) within ±10 percentage points across 50 metros.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Clark (1991) Demography 28:1 — survey evidence that white households prefer >50% same-race neighbors while Black households prefer ~50% mixed — these asymmetric thresholds predict incomplete integration even in Schelling's model, consistent with persistence of segregation despite Fair Housing Act", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Bruch & Mare (2006) Am J Sociol 112:667 — non-linear preference functions (threshold vs. linear) in residential choice models produce qualitatively different macro-level segregation outcomes; linear utility models underpredict tipping point dynamics", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Fossett (2011) J Math Sociol 35:114 — Schelling's original model assumes agent homogeneity; heterogeneous preferences (income differences, preference variation within racial groups) substantially reduce predicted segregation levels compared to homogeneous models, requiring calibration to preference distributions not just means", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Historical factors (redlining, restrictive covenants, mortgage discrimination) produced path-dependent initial segregation patterns that Schelling's dynamic equilibrium model does not capture — current segregation reflects historical lock-in more than current preferences", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-schelling-abm-segregation-threshold-real-world-preference-calibration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-schelling-spinodal-coarsening", "title": "Urban segregation dynamics follow spinodal decomposition kinetics with domain coarsening exponent matching the Cahn-Hilliard prediction", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0609371103", "note": "Vinkovic & Kirman (2006) - physical analogue of Schelling model supports Cahn-Hilliard mapping" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1140/epjb/e2009-00234-0", "note": "Gauvin et al. (2009) - Schelling model on networks shows phase separation dynamics" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-schelling-spinodal-coarsening.yaml" }, { "id": "h-schema-theorem-replicator-equivalence", "title": "The schema theorem of genetic algorithms converges to the continuous-time replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory in the infinite-population limit: the growth rate of a schema's frequency is exactly the difference between its fitness and the mean population fitness, making GAs a discretised numerical integrator of replicator ODEs.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1162/evco.2001.9.2.131", "note": "Vose (2001) — rigorous infinite-population GA convergence to selection-only dynamical system; formal connection to replicator equation established.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF00175353", "note": "Goldberg & Deb (1991) — tournament selection in GAs satisfies Fisher's fundamental theorem; fitness variance determines adaptation rate.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1002/j.1538-7305.1988.tb00958.x", "note": "Holland (1975) — schema theorem; short, high-fitness, low-order schemata proliferate at exponential rate — equivalent to replicator dynamics.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-schema-theorem-replicator-equivalence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-scientific-consensus-social-epistemology", "title": "Scientific consensus forms primarily through social-epistemic mechanisms — replication, peer review, and expert testimony networks — rather than through naive Bayesian updating on individual evidence, and can be mistaken when these social mechanisms are corrupted by funding bias or prestige cascades.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.66, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/bjps/axx064", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Zollman (2010) Zollman effect: dense scientific communication networks converge faster but to wrong consensus when one publication misleads; sparse networks are epistemically superior in early-stage inquiry.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s11229-009-9587-8", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Kitcher (1990) division of cognitive labour model: scientific communities should maintain dissent proportional to prior evidence weight — premature consensus is an epistemic market failure.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.1002165", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Smaldino & McElreath (2016) cultural evolutionary model of science: publication incentives select for high-effort underpowered research producing false positives — consensus may form on unreliable findings when prestige cascades amplify type I errors.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-scientific-consensus-social-epistemology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-scientific-method-bridges-as-falsifiable-predictions", "title": "Cross-domain bridges that generate at least three novel quantitative predictions confirmed by independent experiments in each connected field will achieve an established status that is stable against Duhem-Quine auxiliary hypothesis adjustments — and bridges without such predictions should be classified as heuristic analogies rather than scientific bridges.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Shannon-thermodynamics bridge: generated Landauer's principle (novel prediction), Maxwell's demon resolution, and channel capacity theorem — all confirmed; paradigmatically progressive (Lakatos)" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Statistical mechanics-information theory bridge: Jaynes (1957) predicted thermodynamic equilibrium distributions from maximum entropy without prior knowledge of Boltzmann's derivation — successful novel prediction" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Popper (1959) — degree of falsifiability is proportional to the empirical content of a theory; bridges with more predictions are more falsifiable and hence more scientific" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-scientific-method-bridges-as-falsifiable-predictions.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sdp-rounding-universal-approximation-ratio-tight-ugc", "title": "The Goemans-Williamson SDP + randomized hyperplane rounding framework is universally optimal for constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) under the Unique Games Conjecture: for every 2-variable CSP, the approximation ratio achievable by the basic SDP is tight — i.e., no polynomial-time algorithm can improve the SDP ratio by more than ε without violating UGC.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/227683.227684", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Goemans & Williamson (1995) — 0.878 approximation proven; rounding analysis tight (achieves arccos(ρ)/π ≥ 0.878(1-ρ)/2)" }, { "doi": "10.1145/509907.510016", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Khot (2002) UGC formulation; subsequent work shows UGC implies GW is optimal for MAX-CUT" }, { "doi": "10.1137/1038003", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Vandenberghe & Boyd (1996) SDP framework; interior-point methods achieve ε-optimal solution in polynomial time" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sdp-rounding-universal-approximation-ratio-tight-ugc.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sea-level-fingerprint-attribution", "title": "Sea-level fingerprints — the spatially variable pattern of relative sea-level change from each ice mass source — can uniquely attribute tide gauge and satellite altimetry observations to specific glacier and ice sheet contributions with > 80% attribution accuracy when using networks of > 50 geodetically connected tide gauges.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mitrovica et al. (2001) Science: sea-level fingerprint from WAIS collapse shows far-field amplification — physically distinct from Greenland fingerprint", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hsu et al. (2021) GRACE mascon + GPS inversion: fingerprint attribution recovers 85% of Greenland mass loss vs. GRACE direct measurement", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Riva et al. (2010) GIA corrections crucial for fingerprint inversion — poorly constrained GIA degrades attribution to 60% accuracy", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sea-level-fingerprint-attribution.yaml" }, { "id": "h-secondary-metabolites-pksnrps-combinatorial-evolution", "title": "The modular architecture of PKS and NRPS assembly lines evolves primarily by horizontal gene transfer and domain shuffling rather than point mutation — and the combinatorial space of viable module orderings is much larger than currently sampled by evolution, making synthetic PKS/NRPS libraries a rich source of novel bioactive scaffolds with predicted structural diversity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1039/c2np20019h", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Keatinge-Clay (2012) — PKS module structures; combinatorial logic of domain arrangement; evolutionary implications" }, { "doi": "10.1021/acs.jnatprod.9b01285", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Newman & Cragg (2020) — natural products in drug discovery; ~50% of approved drugs are NPs or derivatives" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Menzella et al. (2005) Nat Biotechnol 23:1171 — combinatorial biosynthesis of polyketides; hybrid module swapping produces functional novel products" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-secondary-metabolites-pksnrps-combinatorial-evolution.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sediment-transport-stochastic-threshold", "title": "Sediment transport threshold is a stochastic quantity, not a deterministic Shields parameter — bedload transport rates follow a power-law distribution at sub-threshold mean shear stress due to turbulent bursting events, and this stochasticity controls long-term river incision rates more than mean flow magnitude.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Grass (1970) stochastic sediment entrainment: fluid force and grain resistance both distributed — overlap of tails determines transport rate", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Papanicolaou et al. (2002) LDV measurements: turbulent burst events produce instantaneous shear stress 3–5× mean — transport occurs far below mean threshold", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lague et al. (2005) stochastic flood magnitude-frequency: river incision rate depends on discharge variability index, not mean discharge", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sediment-transport-stochastic-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-seed-dispersal-levy-flight", "title": "Animal-mediated seed dispersal kernels for endozoochorous species will show Lévy-like tails with exponent α in [1.5, 2.5] that are generated by the power-law gut retention time distribution of the disperser", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/44095", "note": "Viswanathan et al. (1999) Lévy flight foraging as optimal search strategy", "confidence": 0.58 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1086/285551", "note": "Clark (1998) fat-tailed dispersal kernels for tree migration", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-seed-dispersal-levy-flight.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sei-organic-inorganic-layers", "title": "The organic outer and inorganic inner SEI layers transport lithium ions via distinct mechanisms whose relative thickness and conductance ratio determines battery cycle life", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Cryo-TEM reveals nanoscale layered SEI structure in cycled Li-metal cells" }, { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2301.05478", "note": "First-principles calculation of SEI Li+ transport pathways (metadata only)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.2, "note": "Some cryogenic studies show amorphous rather than layered SEI structure" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sei-organic-inorganic-layers.yaml" }, { "id": "h-seismic-adjoint-tomography-resolves-mantle-plumes", "title": "Full-waveform adjoint tomography (FWI) using GLAD-M35 or equivalent models with >100 million waveform measurements resolves mantle plume conduits below Hawaii and Iceland to diameters <200 km at depths >1000 km, distinguishing them from purely upper-mantle thermal anomalies — contradicting travel-time tomography models that show resolution loss below 700 km.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02489.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Tromp et al. (2005) — adjoint-state sensitivity kernels eliminate the high-frequency geometric-ray approximation, dramatically improving resolution in the lower mantle" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.02.010", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Liu & Gu (2012) — travel-time tomography resolution analysis showing >500 km resolution limit in lower mantle" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lei et al. (2020) Science — GLAD-M35 global FWI model shows sub-200 km features in upper mantle; lower mantle plume imaging is the next frontier" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-seismic-adjoint-tomography-resolves-mantle-plumes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-seismic-wave-x-elastic-wave", "title": "Full waveform inversion with optimal transport (Wasserstein) misfit function reduces cycle-skipping susceptibility by 80% compared to L2 misfit while achieving λ/2 resolution for isotropic Vp recovery, with anisotropic parameters requiring 3× denser azimuthal sampling", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1785/BSSA0480030105", "note": "Biot — porous elastic wave theory underpins FWI forward model", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Métivier et al. (2016) — measuring the misfit between seismograms using OT; ESAIM Proc 49:34", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-seismic-wave-x-elastic-wave.yaml" }, { "id": "h-self-exciting-renewal-models-improve-readmission-burst-forecasting", "title": "Self-exciting renewal models improve short-horizon readmission burst forecasting over memoryless baseline models.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/biomet/58.1.83", "note": "Hawkes process foundations for self-excitation.", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-self-exciting-renewal-models-improve-readmission-burst-forecasting.yaml" }, { "id": "h-self-healing-polymer-dynamic-covalent", "title": "Autonomous self-healing in non-covalent polymer networks is governed by the ratio of dynamic bond exchange rate to crack propagation speed; networks where exchange rate exceeds crack tip speed by > 10× achieve > 90% mechanical property recovery within 24 hours, and this ratio can be tuned by controlling dynamic covalent bond density.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1145232", "note": "White et al. (2001) Science — first autonomous self-healing polymer via microencapsulated healing agent; demonstrates feasibility of self-repair concept.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature09963", "note": "Leibler group (2012) — supramolecular self-healing rubber at room temperature via hydrogen bonds; exchange rate governs healing time.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-self-healing-polymer-dynamic-covalent.yaml" }, { "id": "h-self-supervised-residual-pretraining-reduces-retinal-screening-false-negatives", "title": "Self-supervised residual pretraining lowers retinal screening false-negative rates under deployment shift.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Residual architectures improve deep optimization behavior.", "doi": "10.1109/CVPR.2016.90" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-self-supervised-residual-pretraining-reduces-retinal-screening-false-negatives.yaml" }, { "id": "h-semantic-compositionality-limits-construction-grammar", "title": "The limits of compositional semantics are set by idiomatic and constructional meaning — constructions (argument structure, resultative, caused-motion) carry irreducible meaning not predictable from lexical items, requiring a construction grammar architecture", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/CBO9780511816277", "note": "Goldberg (2006) Constructions at Work — construction grammar theory", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2004.12.007", "note": "Jackendoff (2008) — construction grammars vs. generative grammar on compositionality", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1017/S0140525X00003733", "note": "Chomsky (2000) — minimalist program: compositionality in narrow syntax", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-semantic-compositionality-limits-construction-grammar.yaml" }, { "id": "h-semantic-compositionality-type-logical-grammar", "title": "Natural language meaning is compositional for 90% of constructions but requires non-compositional (lexicalized) representations for idioms, light verbs, and constructional meanings; this partition is reflected in distinct neural processing streams that can be separated by contrasting compositional vs. non-compositional sentences matched for surface complexity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.1551-6709.2010.01116.x", "note": "Pylkkänen (2016) — MEG studies of compositional vs. non-compositional adjective-noun phrases; anterior temporal lobe (ATL) responds selectively to combinatorial meaning, not lexical access.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1162/nol_a_00003", "note": "Ziegler & Pylkkänen (2021) — ATL contribution to compositional semantic processing; double dissociation with syntactic composition in posterior frontal cortex.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-semantic-compositionality-type-logical-grammar.yaml" }, { "id": "h-semiconductor-fermi-pinning-chemical-potential-control", "title": "Fermi level pinning at III-V semiconductor surfaces is determined by the chemical potential of surface oxygen, and ALD passivation that saturates all surface oxygen bonding sites will unpin E_F to within kT of the desired bulk value, enabling reliable ohmic contacts in GaAs-based photovoltaics and enabling Schottky barrier tuning across the full bandgap.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevB.37.2934", "note": "Van de Walle & Martin (1987) - band alignments and Fermi level pinning; chemical potential framework", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1021/nl0516000", "note": "Ye et al. (2005) - ALD passivation of InGaAs; Fermi level unpinning observed", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-semiconductor-fermi-pinning-chemical-potential-control.yaml" }, { "id": "h-senolytic-therapy-reduces-cancer-risk-aged-tissue", "title": "Senolytic clearance of p16-high senescent cells in aged mice reduces spontaneous tumor incidence by > 30% without increasing proliferation of pre-cancerous cells, demonstrating that SASP chronically dominates over senescence tumor suppression in aging", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2019.06.001", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Gorgoulis et al. (2019) - review supporting senolytic benefit in cancer prevention" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature16932", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Baker et al. (2016) Nature - clearance of p16 senescent cells delays age-related disorders in mice" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-senolytic-therapy-reduces-cancer-risk-aged-tissue.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sensory-cortex-implements-approximate-kalman-updates", "title": "Manipulating cue reliability in a multisensory integration task will shift population-level sensory weights in proportion to relative variances consistent with a Kalman gain within ~20% error.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1115/1.3662552", "note": "Defines the optimal linear-Gaussian benchmark brains may approximate" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1038/nn.2733", "note": "Bayesian cue combination aligns with reliability weighting motifs" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sensory-cortex-implements-approximate-kalman-updates.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sensory-noise-sr-optimality", "title": "Physiological noise levels in at least three mammalian sensory modalities (auditory, tactile, visual) are tuned by evolution to within a factor of two of the stochastic resonance optimum D_opt, and reducing this noise degrades rather than improves detection sensitivity", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "doi": "10.1126/science.271.5246.239", "note": "Collins et al. (1996) - tactile noise enhancement confirms SR in human fingertip; optimal noise within physiological range" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1038/373033a0", "note": "Levin & Miller (1996) - cricket cercal SR; noise level matches SR optimum quantitatively" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "arxiv": "cond-mat/9503002", "note": "Wiesenfeld & Moss (1995) - theoretical framework for SR in neural systems" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Some sensory systems (e.g. rod photoreceptors) operate in near-zero noise regime — inconsistent with universal SR tuning hypothesis" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sensory-noise-sr-optimality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sepsis-endotype-genomic-immunophenotype", "title": "Sepsis comprises at least two reproducible genomic endotypes (SRS1: immunosuppressed, higher mortality; SRS2: immunoactivated, lower mortality) identifiable from whole- blood transcriptomics within 24h of admission, with differential response to corticosteroids: steroids harm SRS1 patients by further suppressing immunity and benefit SRS2 by reducing hyperinflammation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S2213-2600(16)00046-1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Davenport et al. (2016) - SRS1/SRS2 endotypes in UK Biobank sepsis; differential 28-day mortality" }, { "doi": "10.1164/rccm.201906-1187OC", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Seymour et al. (2019) - alpha/beta ARDS phenotypes parallel SRS structure; reproducible across cohorts" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Antcliffe et al. (2019) - hydrocortisone benefit restricted to hyperinflammatory sepsis subgroup" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sepsis-endotype-genomic-immunophenotype.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sequence-complex-torus-first-ecc-exam-performance", "title": "Students exposed first to the complex torus group law, then immediately tested on 𝔽_p addition tables and subgroup orders, will outperform cohorts taught finite-field formulas alone on conceptual questions about why discrete logarithms matter — without elevating false beliefs that periodicity in ℂ implies protocol breaks — falsified if misconception inventory scores worsen relative to control after torus-first sequencing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.32, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/978-1-4939-1711-7", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Pedagogical sequencing guidance for ECC fundamentals" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sequence-complex-torus-first-ecc-exam-performance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-serpentinization-abiotic-hydrogen-flux", "title": "Global abiotic H₂ flux from serpentinization at ocean ridges and in continental ophiolites is 10¹²–10¹³ mol/yr — sufficient to support a deep chemolithotrophic biosphere of 10¹⁵–10¹⁶ g C biomass — and the Lost City hydrothermal field provides the best accessible model system.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Sleep et al. (2004) Astrobiology: global serpentinization H₂ flux estimate 10¹² mol/yr from ocean ridge heat flux and peridotite volume", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kelley et al. (2005) Science: Lost City hydrothermal field produces H₂ + CH₄ supporting diverse methanogen and acetogens community at 70–90°C", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Andreani et al. (2023) deep drilling at Atlantis Massif: magnetite + H₂ production 10× higher than surface estimates — subsurface serpentinization underestimated", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-serpentinization-abiotic-hydrogen-flux.yaml" }, { "id": "h-shannon-optimal-compression-biological-codes", "title": "Primary sensory cortex neural codes (V1, A1) operate within a factor of 2 of the Shannon rate-distortion bound for natural stimuli when distortion is measured using a perceptual metric matched to the sensory system's known behavioral sensitivity, implying that evolution has driven neural coding efficiency close to the theoretical optimum.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1002/j.1538-7305.1959.tb03905.x", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.95, "note": "Shannon (1959) — rate-distortion theorem providing the theoretical bound" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Simoncelli & Olshausen (2001, Annu Rev Neurosci) — natural image statistics suggest V1 Gabor filters are near-optimal linear codes" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Fairhall et al. (2001, Nature) — efficiency of information transmission in fly H1 neuron" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-shannon-optimal-compression-biological-codes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-shapley-value-predicts-international-climate-burden-sharing", "title": "The Shapley value of national emission reduction coalitions, computed using historical emissions as the characteristic function, predicts negotiated burden-sharing agreements better than GDP-proportional allocation or per-capita equity baselines", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Shapley (1953) — A value for n-person games; axiomatic uniqueness under efficiency/symmetry/additivity axioms", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Stern (2007) — Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change; discusses burden sharing frameworks without game theory", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Finus & Rübbelke (2013) — Coalition formation and climate change, Env Res Econ 56:1; cooperative game theory applied to climate", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-shapley-value-predicts-international-climate-burden-sharing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-shared-biexponential-fitting-bias-function-across-modalities-same-snr", "title": "Biased versus unbiased estimator discrepancies for two-compartment exponential mixtures will trace overlapping curves versus SNR when FLIM TCSPC and GRE T2* pipelines share identical spike-removal priors — falsified if MRI-specific macroscopic field drift dominates bias budget absent in photon counting.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.44, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0076-6879(06)36009-9", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "FLIM methodological foundations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-shared-biexponential-fitting-bias-function-across-modalities-same-snr.yaml" }, { "id": "h-shared-shape-index-scaling-near-jamming-across-donors", "title": "Primary bronchial epithelial cultures from multiple donors will collapse onto a common master curve when mean cell shape index is plotted against variance of cellular velocities after stress normalization — falsified if asthma-associated donors retain statistically separated branches inconsistent with a single jamming surface.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.42, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nmat4357", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Demonstrates donor-dependent jamming phenotypes requiring quantitative scaling tests" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-shared-shape-index-scaling-near-jamming-across-donors.yaml" }, { "id": "h-shared-tangent-field-exponential-region-only-logarithmic-visual-overlap", "title": "Vector-field plots of reduced compartmental epidemic models share tangent-field geometry with inflationary slow-roll slices **only** near exponential-envelope neighborhoods — hypothesis asserts overlap disappears once axes rescale to physical units — falsified if similarity persists after nondimensionalization tying epidemiological rates to cosmological constants without absurd unit mixing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.22, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1927.0118", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Epidemic ODE baseline for qualitative comparison only" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-shared-tangent-field-exponential-region-only-logarithmic-visual-overlap.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sharp-wave-ripple-consolidation-reward-bias", "title": "Sharp-wave ripple replay probability is proportional to the temporal prediction error signal experienced during encoding, causing reward-associated sequences to be preferentially consolidated in neocortical long-term memory\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sharp-wave-ripple-consolidation-reward-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sieber-richter-pairs-bgs-proof", "title": "The full periodic orbit expansion for quantum chaotic systems, organized by the Sieber-Richter diagrammatic topology, reproduces all orders of Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble correlation functions in the semiclassical limit, providing the physical mechanism underlying the BGS conjecture.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.93.014103", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Müller et al. (2004) Phys Rev Lett 93:014103 — diagonal + SR pairs reproduce GOE" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.52.1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Bohigas et al. (1984) original BGS conjecture with numerical evidence" }, { "doi": "10.1016/S0370-1573(97)00088-4", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Guhr et al. (1998) Phys Rep 299:189 — comprehensive RMT review" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sieber-richter-pairs-bgs-proof.yaml" }, { "id": "h-signed-language-same-substrate-spoken", "title": "Signed languages engage the same left-lateralised perisylvian language network as spoken languages — Broca's and Wernicke's areas process signed and spoken syntax/semantics respectively — revealing that the language faculty is modality-independent", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.267.5198.692", "note": "Neville et al. (1998) — sign language and the brain: lesion and imaging studies", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2008.01.035", "note": "MacSweeney et al. (2008) — neuroimaging of sign language processing", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/brain/awh151", "note": "Emmorey (2002) Language, Cognition and the Brain: Insights from Sign Language Research", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-signed-language-same-substrate-spoken.yaml" }, { "id": "h-silicate-weathering-feedback-stabilizes-hothouse", "title": "Silicate weathering feedback is strong enough to prevent runaway greenhouse warming on Earth on timescales >1 Myr, and pCO2 cannot exceed 10× pre-industrial levels for more than 10^6 years without triggering sufficient weathering drawdown to restore climate stability, as quantified by GEOCARB sensitivity analysis\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-silicate-weathering-feedback-stabilizes-hothouse.yaml" }, { "id": "h-silicon-photonics-dfb-laser-integration", "title": "Heterogeneous integration of InP-based DFB lasers onto silicon photonic platforms via die-to-wafer bonding will achieve coupling efficiency >80% and wall-plug efficiency >25% at 85°C within 5 years, making co-packaged optics economically viable for 100-Tbps switch ASICs by 2030.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/PROC.1963.2706", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Kroemer (1963) — double heterostructure enabling room-temperature CW laser operation" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.9.366", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Hall et al. (1962) — original semiconductor laser diode demonstration" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Liang & Bowers (2010, Nat Photonics) — recent progress in lasers on silicon review" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-silicon-photonics-dfb-laser-integration.yaml" }, { "id": "h-silicon-vacancy-coherence-milliseconds", "title": "Silicon-vacancy (SiV) and tin-vacancy (SnV) color centers in diamond achieve spin coherence times > 1 ms at temperatures > 1 K when operated at the strain- tuned clock transition — making them the leading solid-state quantum memory platform for quantum repeater networks, with fundamental limits set by two-phonon Raman scattering that predicts T₂ ∝ T⁻⁵ temperature dependence.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Sukachev et al. (2017) Phys Rev Lett 119:223602 — SiV coherence times", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "note": "Nguyen et al. (2019) Phys Rev Lett 123:183602 — SnV coherence at 1 K", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "note": "Bradac et al. (2019) Nat Commun 10:5625 — quantum memory review", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-silicon-vacancy-coherence-milliseconds.yaml" }, { "id": "h-simulated-annealing-x-statistical-mechanics", "title": "Quantum annealing on D-Wave hardware achieves polynomial speedup over classical simulated annealing for frustrated Ising spin glass problems with chimera graph connectivity, detectable through scaling of time-to-solution with problem size\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.220.4598.671", "note": "Kirkpatrick et al. (1983) - Optimization by simulated annealing; foundational SA paper", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Boixo et al. (2014) - Evidence for quantum annealing with more than one hundred qubits; Nature Physics 10:218; doi:10.1038/nphys2900", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-simulated-annealing-x-statistical-mechanics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sindy-guided-control-policies-delay-phage-resistance-takeover", "title": "SINDy-derived control surrogates improve resistance-management policy timing versus fixed mechanistic templates.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "SINDy provides sparse, control-ready dynamical surrogates.", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1517384113" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sindy-guided-control-policies-delay-phage-resistance-takeover.yaml" }, { "id": "h-single-atom-catalyst-orr-selectivity-4e", "title": "Single-atom catalysts (SACs) with atomically dispersed Fe–N₄ sites on carbon achieve near-100% selectivity for the 4-electron oxygen reduction reaction pathway (O₂ → H₂O) over the 2-electron pathway (O₂ → H₂O₂) because the Fe coordination geometry enforces the correct O–O bond activation angle, making SACs viable Pt-free ORR catalysts for commercial PEM fuel cells.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41929-019-0276-2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Li et al. (2019) Nat Catal — Fe-N-C SAC with FeN₄ sites achieves 98% 4e⁻ selectivity; half-wave potential within 30 mV of Pt/C" }, { "doi": "10.1021/acscatal.8b04817", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Zhu et al. (2019) ACS Catal — XANES/EXAFS confirms FeN₄ coordination; DFT shows OOH* intermediate is destabilized by ~0.4 eV compared to Pt, redirecting to 4e⁻ path" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Holby et al. (2020) JACS — DFT calculations on FeN₄ sites predict a near-barrierless 2e⁻ pathway under acidic conditions; 4e⁻ selectivity may depend on coordination defects not captured by ideal FeN₄ model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-single-atom-catalyst-orr-selectivity-4e.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sir-model-x-compartmental-ode", "title": "Network-structured SIR models on scale-free contact networks (γ ≈ 2.5) exhibit epidemic thresholds that vanish as 1/ln(N) rather than scaling with R₀, so that any pathogen with β > 0 will spread on sufficiently large networks — invalidating classical herd immunity calculations for heterogeneous populations", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1927.0118", "note": "Kermack & McKendrick (1927) — original SIR mass-action derivation; baseline for network extensions", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Pastor-Satorras & Vespignani (2001) — epidemic spreading in scale-free networks; Phys Rev Lett 86:3200", "confidence": 0.83 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sir-model-x-compartmental-ode.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sleep-rem-associative-creative-insight", "title": "REM sleep promotes creative insight by selectively strengthening weak associative links between distantly related memory traces through hippocampal-neocortical replay in a low-acetylcholine milieu, facilitating the formation of novel conceptual combinations unavailable to waking cognition.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2916030118", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Cai et al. (2009) - REM sleep (not NREM or quiet rest) improves analogical reasoning after incubation" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1205106", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Wagner et al. (2004) - sleep promotes insight into hidden mathematical rule (number task)" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Stickgold & Walker (2004) - sleep-dependent memory consolidation selectively strengthens weak associations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sleep-rem-associative-creative-insight.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sleep-rem-creative-insight-memory", "title": "REM sleep enhances creative problem solving by loosening associative hierarchies through cholinergic-noradrenergic modulation, allowing remote semantic associations; SWS consolidates explicit memories while REM integrates them with existing schemas, enabling the \"next-day insight\" effect", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature01600", "note": "Wagner et al. (2004) — Sleep inspires insight; Nature 427:352", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nn.2069", "note": "Cai et al. (2009) — REM sleep promotes creative problem solving; PNAS 106:10130", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2017.07.029", "note": "Lewis et al. (2018) — Overlapping memory replay during sleep; Neuron 99", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sleep-rem-creative-insight-memory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-slow-roll-spectral-tilt-potential-discrimination", "title": "The combination of CMB spectral index n_s and tensor-to-scalar ratio r measurements from CMB-S4 will uniquely discriminate between the three leading inflaton potential families (Starobinsky R^2, natural inflation cosine, and hilltop potentials) without requiring a detection of primordial gravitational waves\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-slow-roll-spectral-tilt-potential-discrimination.yaml" }, { "id": "h-slow-slip-seismic-loading", "title": "Slow-slip events in the Cascadia, Nankai, and Mexico subduction zones systematically increase Coulomb stress on the adjacent locked seismogenic zone, and the cumulative stress transfer from episodic tremor-and-slip cycles raises the conditional probability of a great earthquake (M>8.5) measurably during and immediately after each SSE.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Coulomb stress transfer calculations from Cascadia SSE models show 0.001–0.01 MPa loading on the locked zone per SSE, accumulating to 0.1–1 MPa over the ~14-month SSE cycle. This is comparable to stress drops in M4–5 triggering earthquakes.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Statistical tests of great earthquake occurrence relative to SSE phase in Nankai and Mexico show no significant clustering; the sample size (number of great earthquakes) is too small to detect the predicted modest probability increase.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cascadia SSEs are highly periodic (~14 months in southern Cascadia) making this one of the most tractable natural experiments for testing SSE-seismic hazard interaction.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-slow-slip-seismic-loading.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sma-fatigue-martensitic-slip-competition", "title": "Functional fatigue in NiTi shape-memory alloys is driven by irreversible slip dislocation accumulation in austenite during martensitic transformation — once dislocation density exceeds a critical threshold (ρ > 10¹⁴ m⁻²), the transformation becomes incomplete, and transformation stress increases without recovery of original superelastic plateau.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pelton et al. (2012) NiTi fatigue characterization: 10⁷ cycle mechanical fatigue limit at <0.5% strain — dislocation-martensite interaction mechanism", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ibarra et al. (2007) austenite TEM after 1000 cycles: dislocation networks visible — density correlates with functional degradation magnitude", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Delville et al. (2010) R-phase pathway reduces transformation strain: intermediate phase avoids direct austenite-martensite dislocation generation", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sma-fatigue-martensitic-slip-competition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-smart-grid-virtual-inertia-stability-v2", "title": "Electrical grid frequency stability at high renewable penetration requires virtual inertia emulation by grid-forming inverters (droop control + synthetic inertia from battery storage), with Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) limited to < 0.5 Hz/s for synchronous machine compatibility; stability analysis requires small-signal eigenvalue methods for heterogeneous inverter-dominated grids", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.86, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2337555", "note": "Bevrani et al. (2014) — Intelligent frequency control in an AC microgrid; IEEE Trans Power Syst", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41560-019-0389-y", "note": "Borsche et al. (2015) — Effects of rotational inertia on power system stability", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2954051", "note": "Milano et al. (2018) — Foundations and challenges of low-inertia systems; IEEE Trans Power Syst", "confidence": 0.81 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-smart-grid-virtual-inertia-stability-v2.yaml" }, { "id": "h-smart-grid-virtual-inertia-stability", "title": "Electrical grids can maintain stability at >80% variable renewable penetration using grid-forming inverters with virtual synchronous generator (VSG) control that synthetically provides inertial response (H~5-10 seconds equivalent), provided frequency-responsive demand response and distributed storage fill sub-second gaps not covered by VSG response dynamics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/TSG.2015.2488544", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Dreidy et al. (2017) - inertia response from wind turbines and inverter-based resources: review" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41560-020-00695-4", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Denholm et al. (2021) - operational challenges with high VRE penetration; stability solutions review" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "South Australia grid: >70% instantaneous VRE penetration achieved with grid-forming inverters (2023)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-smart-grid-virtual-inertia-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-smr-proliferation-risk-lower", "title": "Small modular reactors (SMRs) using LEU fuel and factory-sealed designs present materially lower proliferation risk than light-water reactors due to reduced on-site fuel handling, continuous regulatory surveillance, and inability to divert plutonium without detectable reactor shutdown signatures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "IAEA (2022) Safety and Security of Small and Medium-sized Reactors: sealed core designs physically prevent fuel access during operation", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Glaser & Goldston (2012) LEU-fueled reactors produce weapons-grade Pu at 1/5th rate of natural U reactors; continuous burnup monitoring feasible", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Cochran & McKinzie (2008) thorium MSR produces U-233 which is a credible weapons material — MSR designs require separate proliferation analysis", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-smr-proliferation-risk-lower.yaml" }, { "id": "h-snare-zippering-energy-controls-vesicle-fusion-probability", "title": "The probability of spontaneous synaptic vesicle fusion is a Boltzmann function of the SNARE zippering energy barrier ΔG_barrier, such that P_fusion = A·exp(-ΔG_barrier/k_BT), and pharmacological manipulation of SNARE zippering intermediates (via complexin or α-SNAP) quantitatively shifts spontaneous release rate according to this energy landscape.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Zorman et al. (2014) PNAS — optical tweezer measurement of SNARE zippering stages; identified 3 kinetic intermediates with measurable free energy steps", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Südhof (2013) Nobel Lecture — complexin clamps SNARE partially-zipped state; synaptotagmin triggers rapid completion of zipping on Ca2+ binding", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kavalali & Chung (2022) Nat Rev Neurosci — spontaneous and evoked release may share common fusion machinery but differ in Ca²⁺ sensitivity; thermodynamic model not yet formulated" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-snare-zippering-energy-controls-vesicle-fusion-probability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-snare-zippering-force-gates-fusion-rate", "title": "SNARE complex zippering force directly determines fusion pore opening rate, predicting that mutations reducing zippering force by >30% will halve synaptic release probability in a calculable, synapse-type-independent manner\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-snare-zippering-force-gates-fusion-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-snowball-earth-escape-volcanic-co2-ice-albedo", "title": "Snowball Earth deglaciation was triggered by CO2 accumulation to ~0.1 bar from volcanic outgassing in the absence of silicate weathering, overwhelming the ice-albedo feedback and producing rapid hyperthermal deglaciation", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.281.5381.1342", "note": "Hoffman et al. (1998) — Neoproterozoic snowball Earth", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.epsl.2004.08.021", "note": "Pierrehumbert (2004) — high CO2 required for deglaciation", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nature09786", "note": "Abbot & Tziperman (2009) — sea-ice weathering feedback", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-snowball-earth-escape-volcanic-co2-ice-albedo.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soc-earthquake-precursor-detection", "title": "In regional seismicity catalogs, temporal variance of M > 2 event rates increases significantly (z-score > 2) in the 90 days before M > 6.5 earthquakes more often than expected by chance, with a true positive rate exceeding false positive rate by at least 2:1 in a retrospective analysis of the ANSS catalog.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.59.381", "note": "Bak, Tang & Wiesenfeld (1987) — SOC and power law distributions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soc-earthquake-precursor-detection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-cognition-mentalizing-mirror-dissociation", "title": "Social cognition uses two dissociable neural systems: a mentalizing network (mPFC, TPJ, posterior STS) for deliberate belief attribution and an action observation network (IFG, premotor cortex, STS) for automatic simulation of others' actions; their co-activation is domain-general intelligence, not a dedicated social brain.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nrn2135", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Saxe & Kanwisher (2003) - TPJ selectively activated by false-belief tasks; double dissociation from pain empathy" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1069590", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Frith & Frith (2003) - mentalizing system functional MRI review" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Schurz et al. (2020) meta-analysis - TPJ is not exclusively social; also activated by attention reorienting tasks" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-cognition-mentalizing-mirror-dissociation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-cognition-mentalizing-network", "title": "Social cognition is implemented by a dedicated mentalizing network (TPJ, mPFC, precuneus, STS) that is functionally and anatomically dissociable from non-social cognition networks, with action understanding mediated by mirror neuron regions (IFG, IPL) operating in parallel rather than as a prerequisite for mentalizing", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2003.09.005", "note": "Frith & Frith (2003) — Development and neurophysiology of mentalizing; Phil Trans R Soc B 358:459", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2010.10.030", "note": "Saxe & Kanwisher (2003) — People thinking about thinking people: the role of the TPJ", "confidence": 0.84 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1254942", "note": "Kilner & Lemon (2013) — What we know currently about mirror neurons; Curr Biol 23:R1057", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-cognition-mentalizing-network.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-critical-temperature-empirical", "title": "The variance in population-level opinion distribution on Twitter/X, measured by Jensen-Shannon divergence between daily sentiment histograms, diverges with a power law as political polarization events approach — consistent with the susceptibility divergence signature of a second-order phase transition.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.81.591", "note": "Castellano et al. (2009) — theoretical basis for opinion phase transitions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-critical-temperature-empirical.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-ising-polarization-transition", "title": "Political polarisation in democratic societies undergoes a critical transition quantitatively consistent with the Ising ferromagnetic universality class: the opinion order parameter scales as m ~ (h_c - h)^β with β ≈ 1/2 (mean-field) as network homophily h approaches the critical threshold h_c, and this transition is detectable from longitudinal survey data using order-parameter scaling analysis.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.81.591", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Castellano, Fortunato & Loreto (2009) — theoretical prediction of Ising-like phase transition in opinion dynamics" }, { "doi": "10.1142/S0129183100000936", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Sznajd-Weron & Sznajd (2000) — sharp transition in Sznajd model at critical fraction" }, { "doi": "10.1140/epjb/e2002-00359-2", "type": "related", "note": "Galam (2002) — minority opinion dynamics and critical thresholds" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-ising-polarization-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-media-depression-passive-consumption-mechanism", "title": "Social media use causally increases depression and anxiety in adolescent girls primarily through passive consumption of appearance-related content triggering social comparison; active use (messaging, posting, creative content) has neutral or positive mental health effects, explaining heterogeneous results in earlier correlational studies.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1007/s10802-019-00630-w", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Valkenburg et al. (2021) 6-wave longitudinal study (N=2155 adolescents): passive scrolling predicts lower self-esteem at 6-month follow-up; active use (commenting, direct messaging) shows no negative effect.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2022968118", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Haidt & Allen (2020) review pre-registration of longitudinal studies; find passive consumption x appearance content interaction is the most consistently replicated pathway in pre-registered analyses (r ≈ -0.15).\n" }, { "doi": "10.1177/0956797617693315", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Hunt et al. (2018) RCT limiting Facebook/Snapchat/Instagram to 10 min/day reduces loneliness and depression at 3 weeks; no distinction between passive vs. active use types.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-media-depression-passive-consumption-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-mobility-place-childhood-effects", "title": "Intergenerational social mobility is best measured by causal estimates of place effects on children's outcomes (not rank-rank correlations that conflate selection), and the most reliable policy lever is residential mobility programs for families with young children (age < 13), which increase adult earnings 15-35% by moving to higher-opportunity neighbourhoods.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjy007", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Chetty & Hendren (2018) QJE — quasi-experimental analysis of 5 million child movers; each additional year of childhood in higher-opportunity commuting zone increases adult earnings 4%; causal exposure dose-response provides clean mobility metric\n" }, { "doi": "10.1257/aer.20150572", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.83, "note": "Chetty et al. (2016) — Moving to Opportunity experiment: randomised housing vouchers in 1990s; children who moved before age 13 earn 31% more at age 26; children who moved older show zero effect, establishing critical window and causal identification\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjz042", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Opportunity Atlas (Chetty et al. 2018): neighbourhood-level causal estimates cover all 70,000+ census tracts; reveals enormous intra-city variation (5× income gap between tracts 1km apart) suggesting mobility metric must be place-specific\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-mobility-place-childhood-effects.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-movement-cascade-clustered-network-advantage", "title": "Protest or social-movement adoption campaigns seeded in high-clustering network communities will achieve global cascade (>50% adoption) at 3× lower initial seed size than campaigns seeded randomly, when the median adoption threshold φ > 0.2.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1185231", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Centola 2010 – clustered network seeding leads to 2-4× faster adoption in health forum experiment" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.252631999", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Watts 2002 – global cascade conditions depend on seed placement and network clustering" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-movement-cascade-clustered-network-advantage.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-network-centrality-x-eigenvector", "title": "For SIR epidemic spreading on empirical temporal contact networks, temporal Katz centrality with attenuation factor α = 0.85/λ_max(A) outperforms static eigenvector centrality in predicting the top-10% superspreaders by AUC ≥ 0.15, with the advantage increasing monotonically with temporal heterogeneity (burstiness parameter β > 1.5)", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1080/0022250X.1972.9989806", "note": "Bonacich (1972) — Eigenvector centrality; foundational static centrality theory", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Holme & Saramäki (2012) — Temporal networks; Physics Reports 519:97; burstiness and centrality", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-network-centrality-x-eigenvector.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-network-star-topology-innovation-fixation", "title": "In modular social networks with high-degree hub individuals, the probability that a beneficial cultural innovation (fitness advantage r > 1) fixes in the population is >3× higher than in a corresponding random-graph population of the same size, due to the star-graph amplifier effect of hub-and-spoke topology.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature03277", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Lieberman 2005 – star graph ρ >> Moran ρ; hub nodes amplify mutant fixation" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1133755", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Nowak 2006 – cooperation evolution on real social networks; hub-effect on cooperation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-network-star-topology-innovation-fixation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-social-pain-dacc-health-outcomes-mediation", "title": "The relationship between social isolation and mortality risk (Holt-Lunstad meta-analysis: OR ~ 1.29) is mediated by dACC-driven allostatic load — specifically, chronic social isolation increases dACC hyperreactivity to threat, elevating cortisol and inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, CRP) that drive cardiovascular and immune pathology.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1089134", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Eisenberger et al. (2003) Science — dACC activated by social exclusion" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.copsyc.2014.12.013", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Coan & Sbarra (2015) — social baseline theory; isolation increases neural threat response" }, { "doi": "10.1097/PSY.0000000000000255", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Cacioppo et al. (2015) — loneliness and health; inflammatory pathway evidence" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-social-pain-dacc-health-outcomes-mediation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soft-actuator-fatigue-mechanism", "title": "Fatigue failure in soft pneumatic actuators is dominated by crack initiation at geometric stress concentrations in the fiber reinforcement interface layer, and 10^7-cycle durability is achievable with interpenetrating network silicone elastomers and crack-arresting fiber architectures.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Mosadegh et al. (2014) pneumatic networks: failure at 10^4 cycles due to delamination at bending channel corners — geometric stress concentration confirmed by FEA", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Terryn et al. (2017) self-healing silicone actuators recover 80% strength after fatigue damage — extends effective lifetime 3x", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Interpenetrating network (IPN) elastomers (Ducrot et al. 2014) achieve 10x crack resistance over single-network — applicable to soft actuator walls", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soft-actuator-fatigue-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-softmax-attention-x-cortical-divisive-normalization", "title": "Attention temperature tuning that matches cortical surround-suppression width on contour-integration tasks will predict psychophysical threshold curves better than softmax-free convolution baselines on identical stimuli.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1706.03762", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Transformer attention baseline mechanics for softmax sharpness" }, { "doi": "10.1038/371521a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Cortical normalization phenomenology" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-softmax-attention-x-cortical-divisive-normalization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soil-aggregate-fractal-stability-mechanism", "title": "Soil aggregate stability scales as a power law of fractal dimension D_f with exponent ~2 across diverse soil types: higher D_f increases interfacial bonding area proportionally to D_f^2, and this geometric effect is the dominant driver of slaking resistance, independent of organic matter content once pore structure is controlled.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1097/00010694-199102000-00005", "note": "Tyler & Wheatcraft (1990) - fractal soil structure and hydraulic properties", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/S0016-7061(99)00091-7", "note": "Gimenez et al. (1997) - fractal models and soil hydraulic properties", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soil-aggregate-fractal-stability-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soil-food-web-connectance-stability", "title": "Soil food webs with higher modularity (separation of bacterial and fungal energy channels into distinct modules) will show greater stability (lower return time after pulse perturbation) at equivalent connectance, because modular architecture reduces the number of destabilizing feedback loops across the entire web as predicted by May's matrix analysis", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.256.5065.1820", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "De Ruiter et al. (1993) — soil food web energy flow quantification; foundation for stability analysis" }, { "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00928.x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Rooney et al. (2006) — dual-channel food web architecture stabilizes dynamics" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Thebault & Fontaine (2010) — modularity stabilizes mutualistic and food web networks in model systems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soil-food-web-connectance-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soil-microbiome-carbon-enhancement", "title": "Inoculating agricultural soils with high-carbon-use-efficiency microbial consortia increases soil organic carbon sequestration by at least 20 percent over 5 years without reducing crop yields", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soil-microbiome-carbon-enhancement.yaml" }, { "id": "h-solid-electrolyte-sei-thermodynamic-stability-window", "title": "Solid electrolyte long-term stability at electrode interfaces is determined by the electrochemical stability window and the kinetics of SEI layer formation — materials with narrow windows but fast passivating SEI can outperform wide-window materials with slow passivation kinetics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1021/acs.chemrev.7b00115", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Janek & Zeier (2016) review solid electrolyte interfaces; thermodynamic stability windows computed from DFT formation energies predict interfacial reactions at cathode and anode potentials.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41560-019-0382-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Zhu et al. (2019) compute stability windows for 20+ solid electrolytes using the Materials Project; sulfides have narrow windows but fast ion conductivity; oxides have wide windows but high grain boundary resistance.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1021/acsenergylett.8b00948", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Schwietert et al. (2019) apply grand canonical phase diagrams to predict SEI composition — identifies passivating vs. continuously decomposing electrolytes.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-solid-electrolyte-sei-thermodynamic-stability-window.yaml" }, { "id": "h-solid-mechanics-x-topology-optimization", "title": "SIMP topology optimization with mesh refinement h → h/2 converges to the analytical Michell truss solution at rate O(h^0.5) in compliance error for the single-load cantilever problem, but diverges for multi-load problems due to non-uniqueness of the optimal truss layout — predicting that SIMP requires additional symmetry constraints to achieve convergence for real engineering structures", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/BF01650949", "note": "Bendsøe & Kikuchi (1988) — Generating optimal topologies via homogenization; original SIMP method", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Allaire et al. (2002) — A level-set method for shape optimization; J Comput Phys 194:363; continuum shape calculus for topology optimization", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-solid-mechanics-x-topology-optimization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-solid-state-battery-pressure-dendrite", "title": "Lithium dendrite nucleation in solid electrolytes is governed by stress-corrosion cracking at grain boundaries, not electronic conductivity, and a critical stack pressure threshold (5–10 MPa) below which electronic contact is insufficient at grain boundaries will be identified as the universal dendrite suppression condition.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Porz et al. (2017, Advanced Energy Materials) showed that Li dendrites in LLZO propagate through pre-existing cracks and pores, not through bulk crystal, consistent with fracture mechanics mechanism.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Stack pressure experiments show dendrite suppression improves dramatically from 0 to 5 MPa; above 10 MPa, improvement saturates, suggesting a threshold mechanism.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Electronic conductivity hypothesis has support in sulfide electrolytes (different chemistry from oxide LLZO); the pressure mechanism may not be universal across electrolyte chemistries.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-solid-state-battery-pressure-dendrite.yaml" }, { "id": "h-solid-state-nmr-amyloid-structure-mechanism", "title": "Solid-state NMR distance restraints from PITHIRDS-CT and REDOR experiments on uniformly ¹³C,¹⁵N-labelled amyloid fibrils will reveal that all amyloid folds adopt a parallel in-register beta-sheet arrangement regardless of primary sequence, with inter-strand spacing 4.7 Å and beta-sheet stacking 10 Å, confirming the \"cross-beta spine\" as the universal structural motif.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.70.460", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Bloch et al. (1946) — NMR physics underlying solid-state measurements" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nature04586", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Sawaya et al. (2007) Nature 447:453 — microcrystal X-ray structures confirm cross-beta spine" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-solid-state-nmr-amyloid-structure-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soliton-basis-transmission-optimal-nonlinear-channel-capacity", "title": "Nonlinear Fourier transform (NFT) based transmission using the soliton basis will achieve capacity closer to the nonlinear Shannon limit than conventional WDM-DSP systems in the high-power regime, because NFT decouples nonlinear channel interactions into independent soliton eigenvalue channels.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Turitsyn et al. (2017) Nature Photonics: NFT-based transmission demonstrated over 2000 km; first experimental validation of nonlinear spectral domain modulation" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "The NLS equation is exactly integrable; NFT transforms it into decoupled linear channels (continuous and discrete spectrum) — in principle zero nonlinear crosstalk" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Tavakkolnia & Safari (2017): NFT capacity analysis shows potential for gains in high-SNR regime where conventional WDM is nonlinearity-limited" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Amplifier noise breaks the integrability of the NLS equation — the NFT channel model with noise is approximate; the noise-to-soliton interaction degrades performance" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soliton-basis-transmission-optimal-nonlinear-channel-capacity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soliton-x-integrable-systems", "title": "All PDEs with exactly elastic N-soliton collisions necessarily possess a Lax pair representation — making elastic collision a sufficient condition for complete integrability — with near-integrable equations exhibiting exponentially small inelastic corrections proportional to the perturbation parameter ε", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.19.1095", "note": "Gardner et al. — IST and KdV integrability proof from elastic soliton collisions", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Ablowitz & Segur (1981) — solitons and the inverse scattering transform; SIAM", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soliton-x-integrable-systems.yaml" }, { "id": "h-soluble-amyloid-oligomers-synaptic", "title": "Soluble amyloid beta oligomers rather than insoluble plaques are the primary drivers of synaptic dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease, explaining why plaque clearance does not consistently improve cognition", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-018-0230-9", "note": "Synaptic toxicity of Abeta oligomers in cell and animal models (metadata link only)" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lecanemab trial shows cognitive benefit proportional to oligomer clearance rather than plaque reduction" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.2, "note": "DIAN-TU trial plaque clearance data does not show consistent oligomer-specific effect" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-soluble-amyloid-oligomers-synaptic.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sos-lyapunov-global-nonpolynomial", "title": "Neural Lyapunov functions trained with counterexample-guided synthesis can achieve global stability certificates for nonpolynomial nonlinear systems where SOS methods fail, provided the neural approximator is verified with interval arithmetic", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Chang et al. (2019) — Neural Lyapunov Control, NeurIPS — counterexample-guided synthesis demonstrated", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Prajna & Papachristodoulou (2004) — SOS for hybrid systems, CDC; establishes SOS limitations for non-polynomial dynamics", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "De Moura & Bjørner (2008) — Z3: An efficient SMT solver; formal verification tools applicable to neural certificates", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sos-lyapunov-global-nonpolynomial.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sovereign-debt-sustainability-fiscal-space", "title": "Sovereign debt sustainability depends on the r-g differential (real interest rate minus growth rate): sustainability requires primary surpluses only when r > g (debt snowball); countries with r < g have fiscal space for deficit spending, but market panic can shift r > g discontinuously, creating self-fulfilling crises unpredictable from fundamentals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Blanchard (2019) - Public debt and low interest rates; AEA Presidential Lecture", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Reinhart & Rogoff (2010) - Growth in a Time of Debt; AER 100:573", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sovereign-debt-sustainability-fiscal-space.yaml" }, { "id": "h-space-group-frequency-evolution-bias", "title": "The over-representation of P2₁2₁2₁ in the PDB is not a crystallisation- screening artefact but reflects a genuine physicochemical bias: proteins with β-sheet-rich surfaces preferentially form crystal contacts consistent with P2₁2₁2₁ symmetry due to complementary hydrogen-bond geometry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1107/S2052252517000422", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Dauter & Jaskolski – statistical overview of space-group preferences in PDB" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-space-group-frequency-evolution-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spacetime-emerges-from-entanglement", "title": "Spacetime geometry is an emergent phenomenon arising from the entanglement structure of quantum degrees of freedom on a holographic boundary — realized in AdS/CFT as the Ryu-Takayanagi formula S = Area/4G where the bulk metric geometry is reconstructed from boundary entanglement entropy.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.95, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.181602", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Ryu & Takayanagi (2006) — holographic derivation of entanglement entropy in CFT" }, { "doi": "10.1007/BF01608497", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Hawking (1975) — black hole entropy = area/4, precursor to holographic principle" }, { "arxiv": "gr-qc/9310026", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "'t Hooft (1993) — dimensional reduction in quantum gravity" }, { "arxiv": "1304.7985", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Van Raamsdonk — building up spacetime with quantum entanglement (ER=EPR)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spacetime-emerges-from-entanglement.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sparse-coding-x-neural-basis", "title": "V1 simple cell surround suppression emerges from ISTA lateral inhibition dynamics with a time constant τ_inh = 15±5ms, predicting that surround suppression onset precedes response saturation by exactly this interval in awake primate V1 during natural image viewing", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/381520a0", "note": "Olshausen & Field (1996) — Sparse coding of natural images; Nature 381:607", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Rozell et al. (2008) — Sparse coding via thresholding and local competition; Neural Comput 20:2526", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sparse-coding-x-neural-basis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sparse-sensor-placement-improves-pde-structure-recovery", "title": "Greedy sensor placement maximizing a derivative-information surrogate improves correct-term recovery rates in SINDy-style sparse regression versus uniformly spaced sparse sensing at matched budgets on simulated advection–diffusion fields.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1509.03580", "note": "Defines the sparse regression discovery pipeline used as the evaluation substrate.", "confidence": 0.57 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sparse-sensor-placement-improves-pde-structure-recovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sparsity-priors-stabilize-lidar-surface-recovery", "title": "Total-variation–regularized surface reconstruction from simulated waveform LiDAR will reduce Hausdorff error versus naive Delaunay triangulation by a predictable factor when foliage gaps exceed a threshold.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1109/TGRS.2004.839552", "note": "Signal-level inverse problem structure in LiDAR remote sensing" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.4, "doi": "10.1029/2001RS002475", "note": "Geophysical mapping context where geometry-from-waveform issues arise" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sparsity-priors-stabilize-lidar-surface-recovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-species-abundance-maximum-entropy", "title": "Species abundance distributions follow log-normal patterns because ecological communities are maximum-entropy distributions subject to constraints on total resource use and species number, and deviations from log-normality toward log-series distributions indicate communities dominated by stochastic colonisation-extinction dynamics rather than resource partitioning.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1890/07-1432.1", "note": "Harte et al. (2008) — Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology (METE) derives SAD as the most probable distribution given area, species richness, and total abundance.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.09.009", "note": "Frank (2011) — maximum entropy framework unifies log-normal and log-series SADs; the shape is determined by which constraints are imposed.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01113.x", "note": "McGill et al. (2007) — review of 30+ SAD theories; empirical support for log-normal in large communities, log-series in low-richness island communities.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-species-abundance-maximum-entropy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spectral-clustering-x-graph-laplacian", "title": "Random-walk Laplacian L_rw spectral clustering achieves 20% better Normalised Mutual Information than unnormalised L clustering on power-law degree graphs (γ < 2.5) by correctly weighting high-degree hub nodes, while symmetric L_sym is optimal for regular and near-regular graphs", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/s11222-007-9033-z", "note": "von Luxburg — spectral clustering tutorial with Laplacian normalisation comparison", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Lei & Rinaldo (2015) — consistency of spectral clustering in stochastic block models; Ann Stat 43:215", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spectral-clustering-x-graph-laplacian.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spectral-linewidth-scales-with-collapse-shock-mach-estimate", "title": "For noble-gas-driven single-bubble sonoluminescence experiments where simultaneous radius–time curves yield peak inward Mach estimates from fitted Rayleigh–Plesset-like models, optical spectral linewidths will correlate positively with inferred Mach across gases after controlling for thermal conductivity — falsified if linewidth remains invariant while Mach varies strongly (implying emission mechanism decouples from hydrodynamic intensity).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.39, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.74.425", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Review ties spectroscopic trends to collapse phenomenology without settling mechanism" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spectral-linewidth-scales-with-collapse-shock-mach-estimate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-speech-coherence-alzheimers-prediction", "title": "A two-year decline in sentence-to-sentence semantic coherence (measured by cosine similarity of sentence embeddings in picture-description speech) predicts conversion from MCI to Alzheimer's dementia with AUC > 0.80, non-inferior to amyloid PET", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cortex.2005.09.001", "type": "supporting", "note": "Garrard et al. (2005) — lexical and semantic changes in pre-symptomatic Alzheimer's (Iris Murdoch novels)" }, { "arxiv": "1907.07061", "type": "supporting", "note": "Petti et al. (2020) — systematic review: NLP for Alzheimer's detection from speech, AUC 0.74-0.87" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41386-019-0534-2", "type": "related", "note": "Corcoran et al. (2018) — semantic coherence predicts psychosis conversion; methodology directly applicable to AD" }, { "doi": "10.1101/2020.07.23.20160416", "type": "supporting", "note": "Fraser et al. — linguistic features from DementiaBank predict Alzheimer's diagnosis" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-speech-coherence-alzheimers-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-sperm-small-rna-mediates-paternal-trauma-epigenetic-inheritance", "title": "Paternal stress exposure alters the small non-coding RNA (miRNA, tRNA fragment, piRNA) composition of sperm in a stress-specific manner, and injection of these sperm RNAs into naive zygotes recapitulates the behavioural and physiological phenotypes observed in the offspring of stressed fathers.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nn.3594", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Dias & Bhattacharya (2014) — paternal olfactory fear conditioning transmitted to offspring; sperm DNA methylation changes at M71 locus observed\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Gapp et al. (2014, Nat Neurosci 17:667) — injection of sperm tRNA fragments from stressed mice into zygotes recapitulates metabolic phenotypes of offspring of stressed fathers — direct RNA injection evidence\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2014.04.015", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Heard & Martienssen (2014) — critical review acknowledging RNA as viable mechanism" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-sperm-small-rna-mediates-paternal-trauma-epigenetic-inheritance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spin-fluctuation-pairing-cuprates", "title": "Antiferromagnetic spin fluctuation exchange is the dominant Cooper pairing mechanism in hole-doped cuprate superconductors — paramagnon-mediated pairing with d_{x²-y²} symmetry accounts for the T_c dome shape, pseudogap onset temperature, and superfluid density without adjustable parameters.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Schrieffer, Wen & Zhang (1989) proposed spin-bag mechanism; Monthoux & Pines (1993) showed spin-fluctuation exchange gives T_c ~ 90 K with d-wave symmetry in quantitative agreement for optimally doped YBCO.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Neutron scattering evidence for magnetic resonance mode at (π,π) in YBCO below T_c (Rossat-Mignod et al. 1991, Mook et al. 1993) — the mode energy ≈ 2Δ_max is consistent with a spin-fluctuation-mediated pairing boson.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "ARPES measurements show phonon kinks in the electron dispersion of cuprates at ~70 meV (Lanzara et al. 2001, Nature 412:510), suggesting electron-phonon coupling contributes to the pairing — inconsistent with pure spin-fluctuation picture.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "RVB/resonating valence bond theory (Anderson, Lee, Wen) accounts for the same experimental facts without invoking spin fluctuations — a competing complete theory that has not been decisively ruled out.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spin-fluctuation-pairing-cuprates.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spin-glass-p-np-separation", "title": "The replica-symmetry-breaking transition in random 3-SAT at α_c ≈ 4.267 constitutes an average-case hardness phase transition: no polynomial-time algorithm can solve a uniformly random 3-SAT instance drawn from the critical window α ∈ [4.2, 4.3] with probability greater than 1/2, for sufficiently large n.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.297.5582.812", "note": "Mézard et al. (2002) — cavity method shows solution space shattering at α_c (RSB transition)" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1145/2746539.2746619", "note": "Ding, Sly & Sun (2015) — rigorous proof of satisfiability threshold for random k-SAT" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1145/1374376.1374428", "note": "Achlioptas & Richa (2008) — algorithmic barriers near SAT threshold (power of local search)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Average-case hardness near α_c has not been proven (no known reduction from worst-case SAT to random SAT at threshold). Survey propagation solves typical near-threshold instances efficiently, but may fail on planted solutions or adversarially perturbed instances.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spin-glass-p-np-separation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spin-squeezed-states-heisenberg-limited-sensing", "title": "Spin-squeezed atomic ensembles generated via one-axis twisting or cavity- mediated interactions can achieve Heisenberg-limited sensitivity (ΔΦ ∝ 1/N) in practical atomic clocks and magnetometers, and the decoherence-imposed limit in realistic systems is ΔΦ ∝ N^(-2/3) — still a significant improvement over the standard quantum limit N^(-1/2) achievable with current trapped-ion and optical lattice clock technology.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Wineland et al. (1994) Phys Rev A 50:67 — spin squeezing and sensitivity", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "note": "Hosten et al. (2016) Nature 529:505 — 20 dB spin squeezing in Rb", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "note": "Giovannetti et al. (2004) Science 306:1330 — quantum-enhanced measurements", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spin-squeezed-states-heisenberg-limited-sensing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spin-waves-x-magnons", "title": "Kagome ferromagnets host topological magnon bands with nonzero Chern number that produce a quantized thermal Hall conductivity (magnon Hall effect) κ_xy/T = C·k_B²/(ħ) measurable at sub-Kelvin temperatures, enabling a topological magnon heat current switch", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.58.1098", "note": "Holstein & Primakoff (1940) — bosonization framework enabling magnon band structure calculation", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Chisnell et al. (2015) — topological magnon bands in kagome lattice Cu(1-3,bdc); Phys Rev Lett 115:147201", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spin-waves-x-magnons.yaml" }, { "id": "h-spinal-cord-nogo-combinatorial-repair", "title": "Complete motor recovery after complete spinal cord injury requires combinatorial treatment targeting three independent barriers: Nogo-A/NgR1 inhibition (axon growth block), chondroitin sulphate proteoglycan (CSPG) matrix digestion, and neural progenitor cell bridges — no single intervention is sufficient.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2018.10.048", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Bhatt et al. — anti-Nogo-A antibody alone enables limited axonal sprouting in complete SCI but does not restore locomotion; distance covered scales with injury completeness\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-022-04928-6", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Courtine et al. (2022) Nature — epidural electrical stimulation + rehabilitation restores voluntary locomotion in 9/9 patients with chronic complete SCI; but neither regeneration nor reconnection confirmed — likely spared fibre activation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aax6839", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.77, "note": "Lu et al. (2019) Science — human neural stem cell grafts form synapses with host neurons across complete injury in rodents; limited circuit function restored, supporting graft bridge concept as necessary third element\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-spinal-cord-nogo-combinatorial-repair.yaml" }, { "id": "h-squid-array-regularization-improves-meg-source-localization", "title": "Increasing SQUID channel count with isotropic coverage and calibrated noise covariance lowers posterior credible set diameter for focal sources at fixed SNR in anatomically constrained Bayesian inversion — testable on cortical phantoms with ground truth.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.64, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0013-4694(87)90087-2", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.52, "note": "Forward model structure informs identifiability arguments." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Empirical phantom validation remains the decisive evidence path." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-squid-array-regularization-improves-meg-source-localization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stability-selected-lasso-panels-outperform-fixed-biomarkers-under-assay-noise", "title": "Stability-selected lasso biomarker panels maintain diagnostic utility better than fixed panels under assay drift.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Lasso enables sparse, potentially deployable signatures.", "doi": "10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stability-selected-lasso-panels-outperform-fixed-biomarkers-under-assay-noise.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stackelberg-equilibrium-predicts-security-market-underinvestment", "title": "The Stackelberg defender-attacker equilibrium predicts that organizations systematically overinvest in visible, deterrence-oriented security and underinvest in detection and response — a prediction testable through breach cost and security spending decomposition data.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Verizon DBIR consistently shows >60% of breaches take months to detect — consistent with underinvestment in detection relative to prevention" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Gordon & Loeb (2002) model predicts organizations should spend 1/e (~37%) of potential breach loss on security; empirical spending is much lower, consistent with underinvestment" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Stackelberg security game analysis (Tambe 2011) applied to airport security shows similar over-patrolling of visible points and under-monitoring of less-visible areas" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Security investment data is not publicly available at the granularity needed to test overinvestment in prevention vs. detection; self-reported surveys are unreliable" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stackelberg-equilibrium-predicts-security-market-underinvestment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-staggered-commutation-frequency-threshold-for-target-isolation-db", "title": "Achieving ≥20 dB isolation across ≥50 MHz instantaneous bandwidth at GHz carriers requires modulation frequency ≥0.05 ω_carrier for staggered commutated-line cells with realistic switch parasitics — below this ratio, Floquet sidebands overlap passbands and collapse isolation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.39, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/ncomms11217", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.41, "note": "Demonstrates principle; quantitative scaling law still **speculative**." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.3, "note": "Numeric coefficients depend on switch technology node." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-staggered-commutation-frequency-threshold-for-target-isolation-db.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stain-normalized-unet-training-improves-cross-site-pathology-consistency", "title": "Stain-normalized U-Net pipelines reduce cross-site variance in pathology quantification versus raw-image training.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "U-Net provides a strong biomedical segmentation baseline.", "doi": "10.1007/978-3-319-24574-4_28" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stain-normalized-unet-training-improves-cross-site-pathology-consistency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stalling-density-wave-speed-correlates-with-seq-measured-pause-density-peaks", "title": "Wave-like accumulation metrics derived from coarse-grained ASEP simulations will correlate with peaks in polymerase pause density tracks derived from NET-seq style assays along regions engineered with programmed slow sites — falsified if chromatin remodeling dominates pause statistics unrelated to exclusion physics.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.47, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.bpj.2011.03.014", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Biophysical polymer traffic modeling literature exemplar" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stalling-density-wave-speed-correlates-with-seq-measured-pause-density-peaks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-starling-murmuration-criticality-vicsek", "title": "Starling murmurations are tuned near the Vicsek critical point, maintaining scale-free correlations that maximize information transfer speed across the flock, measurable through correlation length scaling with flock size", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1215776", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Cavagna et al. (2010) - scale-free correlations in starling flocks consistent with criticality" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1320637111", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.73, "note": "Bialek et al. (2014) - maximum entropy model of starling flocks shows near-critical behavior" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-starling-murmuration-criticality-vicsek.yaml" }, { "id": "h-starling-oncotic-reversal-lymphatic-dependence", "title": "In tissues with high capillary permeability, the revised Starling equation predicts near-zero net filtration across the capillary wall, making lymphatic drainage of macromolecule-laden interstitial fluid the primary mechanism of edema prevention rather than oncotic pressure reabsorption\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-starling-oncotic-reversal-lymphatic-dependence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-statistical-thermodynamics-equilibrium-partition-function", "title": "All of chemical equilibrium derives from a single statistical mechanical quantity: the molecular partition function Z = Σ_states exp(-E_state/kT); the equilibrium constant K = exp(-ΔG°/RT) equals the ratio of product to reactant partition functions, with van't Hoff temperature dependence d(lnK)/dT = ΔH°/RT² following immediately from d(lnZ)/dT = /kT².\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Gibbs (1902) Elementary Principles in Statistical Mechanics — partition function formalism", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.95 }, { "note": "Atkins & de Paula (2010) Physical Chemistry — standard treatment of statistical thermodynamics derivation of K", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "note": "McQuarrie (2000) Statistical Mechanics — partition function for ideal gas K derivation", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-statistical-thermodynamics-equilibrium-partition-function.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stdp-homeostatic-scaling-weight-stability", "title": "Multiplicative STDP combined with synaptic scaling maintains log-normally distributed synaptic weights that match observed in vivo distributions in cortical neurons", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2006.09.015", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Turrigiano (2008) - synaptic scaling homeostatically adjusts all weights proportionally, preserving relative strengths" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.0030068", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Song et al. (2005) - multiplicative STDP produces log-normal weight distributions matching cortical data" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stdp-homeostatic-scaling-weight-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stellar-bh-spin-tidal-synchronization", "title": "Stellar-mass black hole spin distribution reflects natal spin from core collapse (moderate a* ~ 0.3-0.7) plus accretion history; tidal synchronization in compact binaries drives spin-orbit alignment while misaligned systems from asymmetric natal kicks retain distinct spin orientations detectable via GW inspiral waveforms", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.3847/2041-8213/ab7e57", "note": "Abbott et al. (2020) — GWTC-2: GW transient catalog shows bimodal χ_eff distribution", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-081913-040031", "note": "Miller & Miller (2015) — Stellar mass black hole spin review", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Qin et al. (2018) — Tidal synchronization in tight binaries produces high-spin primary BHs before GW-driven inspiral", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stellar-bh-spin-tidal-synchronization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stellar-imf-turbulent-fragmentation-universal", "title": "The stellar initial mass function is not truly universal but varies with gas temperature, Jeans mass, and Mach number of turbulence in molecular clouds, producing top-heavy IMFs in extreme starburst and high-z environments", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-082812-141012", "note": "Bastian et al. (2010) — evidence for IMF variations in extreme environments", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stu1022", "note": "Hopkins (2012) — turbulent fragmentation and IMF", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev.astro.45.051806.110529", "note": "McKee & Ostriker (2007) — IMF universality review", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stellar-imf-turbulent-fragmentation-universal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stem-cell-niche-mechanotransduction-quiescence", "title": "Adult stem cell quiescence is maintained by low ECM stiffness in the niche through YAP/TAZ cytoplasmic sequestration, and tissue injury activates stem cells by increasing matrix stiffness (via MMP-mediated crosslinking) to a threshold that triggers YAP/TAZ nuclear translocation and proliferative gene expression.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2014.08.049", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.81, "note": "Engler et al. — muscle satellite cell fate tracks matrix elasticity: soft (10kPa) promotes self-renewal; stiff (80kPa) promotes differentiation; YAP activity correlates with stiffness and is necessary for the response\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41556-021-00722-0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.77, "note": "Mair et al. (2021) — intestinal stem cells maintain quiescence on soft basement membrane; Matrigel stiffening by LOX inhibition promotes proliferation, identifying lysyl oxidase as a mechanoregulator of the intestinal stem cell niche\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.stem.2012.02.012", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Cosgrove et al. (2014) — aged muscle niche is stiffer than young; transplanting aged satellite cells into young niche restores function, confirming niche stiffness (not intrinsic cell age) drives dysfunction\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stem-cell-niche-mechanotransduction-quiescence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stereotype-kernel-of-truth-social-learning", "title": "Group stereotypes form and persist through Bayesian social learning from accurate (but base-rate-neglecting) sample statistics of group member behaviour, combined with availability heuristics that overweight memorable exceptions — inaccurate stereotypes persist when outgroup contact is rare, making availability error proportional to segregation level.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/0033-295X.101.2.230", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Jussim et al. (2009) — meta-analysis: stereotypes are moderately accurate on measurable group statistics (d ≈ 0.3 average accuracy correlation); accuracy is highest for ethnic/racial stereotypes where base rate differences are real (occupational, educational), lower for trait stereotypes\n" }, { "doi": "10.1037/pspa0000031", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Lippmann-Allport-Tajfel social categorisation — stereotypes develop through associative learning from category-outcome pairings; availability of vivid examples (crime news, celebrity behaviour) distorts probability estimates systematically\n" }, { "doi": "10.1037/a0030468", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Stereotype accuracy debate (Funder 2012 vs. Kunda 1999): kernel-of-truth theories predict stereotypes should be more accurate for groups with more intergroup contact; test: compare accuracy for majority vs. minority ingroup stereotypes — minority stereotypes about majority should be more accurate due to more observational data\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stereotype-kernel-of-truth-social-learning.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stereotype-threat-racial-achievement-gap-mechanism", "title": "Stereotype threat — the situational pressure of confirming a negative group stereotype — accounts for 20–40% of the Black-White standardized test score gap through working-memory depletion and vigilance activation, and identity-safe learning environments that remove threat cues produce the largest and most durable achievement gap reductions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Steele & Aronson (1995) J Pers Soc Psychol 69:797 — stereotype threat original paper", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "note": "Walton & Cohen (2011) Science 331:1447 — social belonging intervention", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "note": "Inzlicht & Schmader (2012) Stereotype Threat: Theory, Process, Application", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stereotype-threat-racial-achievement-gap-mechanism.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stochastic-gene-expression-bet-hedging-optimal-noise", "title": "The Fano factor of fitness-relevant bacterial promoters is tuned by natural selection to match the temporal variance of their ecological environment — specifically, promoters controlling stress-response genes in high-variance environments will exhibit significantly higher Fano factors than orthologous promoters in stable environments, with the optimal F predicted by the Kelly criterion applied to the environmental power spectrum.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1070919", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Elowitz et al. (2002) showed gene-specific differences in noise level, consistent with selective tuning" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.0040309", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Raj et al. (2006) showed bursty transcription is gene-specific; burst size varies systematically" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kussell & Leibler (2005) Science 309:2075 — phenotypic switching rates can be tuned to match environmental switching rates; Kelly criterion analogy" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stochastic-gene-expression-bet-hedging-optimal-noise.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stochastic-resonance-matches-information-peak-in-cell-signaling", "title": "In threshold-dominated signaling modules, the noise amplitude that maximizes spectral coherence also maximizes input-output mutual information for weak periodic stimuli.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.70.223", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Theory predicts resonance optima in nonlinear threshold systems." }, { "doi": "10.1038/365337a0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.46, "note": "Biological contexts where noise-enhanced response is experimentally plausible." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stochastic-resonance-matches-information-peak-in-cell-signaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stochastic-resonance-neural-coding-optimality", "title": "The spontaneous firing rate of primary auditory nerve fibers is within a factor of 2 of the stochastic resonance optimum predicted by the ratio of detection threshold sound pressure to hair cell thermal noise, across at least 5 mammalian species.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/365337a0", "note": "Levin & Miller (1996) — stochastic resonance in hair cells" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stochastic-resonance-neural-coding-optimality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stratosphere-troposphere-annular-mode-coupling", "title": "Stratospheric variability modulates tropospheric jet streams through anomalous Eliassen-Palm flux divergence that alters the refractive index for Rossby waves, shifting the tropospheric annular mode and accounting for ~20% of multi-decadal jet variability, detectable as lagged correlation between polar cap temperature and NAM/SAM indices.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0433:NSVSOT>2.3.CO;2", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Thompson & Wallace (2000) - annular mode structure; stratosphere-troposphere coupling" }, { "doi": "10.1175/JAS3370.1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Gerber & Polvani (2009) - stratosphere-troposphere coupling increases predictability by 1-3 weeks" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Karpechko & Manzini (2012) - GCMs underestimate stratosphere-troposphere coupling by factor 2" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stratosphere-troposphere-annular-mode-coupling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stratosphere-troposphere-annular-mode", "title": "The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) propagates downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere on 2-8 week timescales via eddy-mean flow interaction, providing decadal predictability of winter circulation patterns linked to stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gas changes", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1063315", "note": "Baldwin & Dunkerton (2001) — Stratospheric harbingers; Science 294:581", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0027:DOTBSO>2.0.CO;2", "note": "Gerber & Polvani (2009) — stratosphere-troposphere coupling; mechanism review", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kidston et al. (2015) — stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams; Nature Geosci 8:433", "confidence": 0.73 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stratosphere-troposphere-annular-mode.yaml" }, { "id": "h-stress-granule-binodal-concentration-prediction", "title": "The dilute-phase concentration of TDP-43 at stress granule equilibrium (measured by single-molecule imaging in living cells) will follow the Flory-Huggins binodal prediction as a function of total cellular TDP-43 concentration, and ALS-linked A315T mutation will shift the binodal to lower concentrations by an amount predictable from the change in the chi parameter measured by in-vitro turbidimetry", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-biochem-060209-104336", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Hyman et al. (2014) — LLPS thermodynamics in biology; Flory-Huggins framework established" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2015.10.053", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Molliex et al. (2015) — TDP-43 low-complexity domain drives stress granule assembly" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Wang et al. (2018) — A-LCD mutations shift LLPS concentration threshold in vitro" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-stress-granule-binodal-concentration-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-structural-holes-income-mobility-mediation", "title": "Betweenness centrality (structural holes / brokerage position) in social networks mediates intergenerational income mobility: individuals who bridge disconnected social classes have higher upward mobility, and this effect is partially causal, as shown by interventions that create cross-class network connections\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Chetty et al. (2022, Nature) used Facebook data for 72M Americans: economic connectedness (fraction of high-SES friends) is the single strongest predictor of upward income mobility — stronger than school quality, job access, or family stability." }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Granovetter (1973) 'strength of weak ties': weak ties (bridging connections) deliver better job information than strong ties (within-cluster). Betweenness centrality formalises the weak tie advantage." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Chetty et al.'s causal identification relies on geographic variation in friending bias; potential confounds (neighbourhood quality, parental connections) are controlled but not eliminated. Direct experimental evidence for causality is lacking." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-structural-holes-income-mobility-mediation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-student-transfer-zeno-curve-to-sampling-stability-drills", "title": "Embedded-systems learners who complete paired modules (quantum Zeno cadence sweep diagrams + deterministic watchdog scheduling drills) will score higher on quantitative timing-margin problems than controls matched on prerequisite GPA — falsified if analogy-first instruction increases misconception rates on validated quantum-literacy probes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.28, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.74.1259", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Provides canonical experimental curve for instructional analogy material" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-student-transfer-zeno-curve-to-sampling-stability-drills.yaml" }, { "id": "h-subduction-initiation-passive-margin-collapse", "title": "Subduction initiation occurs preferentially at passive margins via gravitational collapse of dense, waterloaded lithosphere, requiring a combination of topographic forcing and sediment lubrication — spontaneous nucleation without a pre-existing weakness is rare", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1130/B30610.1", "note": "Stern (2004) — subduction initiation: spontaneous and induced", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-021-21367-9", "note": "Crameri et al. (2020) — numerical constraints on subduction initiation", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.023", "note": "Toth & Gurnis (1998) — dynamics of subduction initiation at pre-existing faults", "confidence": 0.67 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-subduction-initiation-passive-margin-collapse.yaml" }, { "id": "h-supersymmetry-electroweak-hierarchy-stabilization", "title": "A compressed-spectrum supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model with gluino mass 1.5-2 TeV and neutralino mass 300-500 GeV stabilizes the electroweak hierarchy, provides a dark matter candidate (lightest supersymmetric particle), and remains consistent with all current LHC exclusion limits while predicting observable signatures at the HL-LHC.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.physletb.2012.08.020", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Higgs discovery at 125 GeV — consistent with SUSY predictions but requires fine-tuning in simple models" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.30.1343", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Gross-Wilczek asymptotic freedom — QCD coupling unification at GUT scale motivated by SUSY completion" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-supersymmetry-electroweak-hierarchy-stabilization.yaml" }, { "id": "h-supervolcano-uplift-precursor-timescale", "title": "Supereruption onset at silicic calderas is preceded by decades-to-centuries of measurable precursors (unrest cycles, caldera uplift > 1m/yr, increased CO₂/SO₂ ratios) — the eruption onset is not geologically instantaneous but involves a time-predictable magma remobilization sequence detectable with current monitoring networks.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Druitt et al. (2012) Nature: Santorini 2011–2012 unrest: 0.4m uplift + CO₂ spike — magma injection at 8 km depth — reactivation at low repose", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Campi Flegrei bradyseism: 3m cumulative uplift since 1950, episodic — no eruption — demonstrating multi-decadal unrest does not necessarily precede eruption", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Sparks et al. (2019) Science: melt extraction from crystal mush requires 10²–10³ yr — implies long precursor window for supereruptions", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-supervolcano-uplift-precursor-timescale.yaml" }, { "id": "h-supply-chain-network-x-bond-percolation-disruption", "title": "Empirical fits of correlated edge-failure models on anonymized automotive tier networks will lower out-of-sample disruption-size tail misclassification versus IID bond percolation baselines — measured by proper scoring rules on held-out shock events stratified by disaster category.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.5, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nphys3899", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Network instability empirical metaphor motivating correlated cascade modeling vocabulary" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-supply-chain-network-x-bond-percolation-disruption.yaml" }, { "id": "h-supply-chain-percolation-threshold-dual-sourcing", "title": "Dual-sourcing critical components (Tier 1 parts with single-source suppliers) raises a supply chain network's effective percolation threshold above the operational disruption probability, predicting that firms that dual-source their top 10% highest-risk suppliers reduce production halts from supplier failure by >60% with <15% increase in procurement cost.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35019019", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Albert et al. (2000) show scale-free networks are robust to random failures but fragile to targeted hub attacks; dual-sourcing reduces hub criticality by increasing effective degree of key supplier nodes.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1257856", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Acemoglu et al. (2012) show that supply network structure determines cascade size; reducing single-source dependence of hub suppliers reduces cascade propagation.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-supply-chain-percolation-threshold-dual-sourcing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-supply-chain-resilience-modularity", "title": "Supply chain resilience scales with network modularity rather than inventory buffers — modular supply networks with regional redundancy outperform JIT systems during tail-risk events, with the resilience-efficiency frontier parameterized by the modularity index Q of the supplier network graph.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Sheffi (2005) The Resilient Enterprise: modular supply chains recovered from 9/11 and Tohoku quake 60% faster than lean JIT counterparts", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Guan et al. (2020) COVID-19 disruption propagation: highly integrated supply networks suffered 3x larger production losses than modular networks", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Bimpikis et al. (2019) supply chain network structure determines systemic risk — hub-and-spoke vs modular — using network centrality measures", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-supply-chain-resilience-modularity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-surface-code-practical-threshold-2030", "title": "Superconducting qubit systems will achieve surface code logical error rates below 10⁻⁶ per logical gate cycle before 2030, enabling the first demonstration of quantum advantage in fault-tolerant mode for a classically intractable problem.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Google Quantum AI (2023) Nature: demonstrated below-threshold surface code performance with distance-7 code showing logical error rate suppression per doubling of code distance. Physical error rates ~0.3% are now routinely achieved on 2D superconducting qubit arrays.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Fowler et al. (2012) Phys Rev A 86:032324 — surface code threshold ≈ 1% under circuit-level noise is achievable with realistic superconducting qubit parameters, giving a roadmap to fault tolerance.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "IBM Quantum roadmap (2023) projects >100,000 physical qubit systems by 2033, enabling surface code logical qubits at scale.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-surface-code-practical-threshold-2030.yaml" }, { "id": "h-surprisal-n400-mismatch-equivalence", "title": "N400 ERP amplitude is a linear function of word surprisal (-log P(w | syntactic and semantic context)) computed by a hierarchical predictive model, controlling for word frequency, semantic plausibility, and cloze probability — and the slope of this linear relationship is modulated by precision (contextual predictability) in the same way that precision-weighting modulates prediction-error gain in Friston's free-energy framework\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2007.05.006", "note": "Levy (2008) Cognition — surprisal predicts reading times; establishes the basic relationship this hypothesis extends to ERP amplitude\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1017/S0140525X12000477", "note": "Clark (2013) Behav Brain Sci — predictive coding framework motivating the precision-weighting modulation of prediction-error signals\n" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4165861/", "note": "Frank et al. (2015) — EEG study showing surprisal predicts N400 amplitude in natural reading; partial support for this hypothesis without precision manipulation\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104311", "note": "Kutas & Federmeier (2020) — review arguing N400 reflects lexical access rather than prediction error per se; alternative interpretation that must be distinguished\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-surprisal-n400-mismatch-equivalence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-survey-propagation-rsat-threshold-prediction", "title": "Survey propagation derived from the 1RSB cavity method predicts the satisfiability threshold of random 3-SAT to within 0.1% and solves instances near the threshold in polynomial expected time", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1073287", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Mezard et al. (2002) - survey propagation solves random 3-SAT near threshold in polynomial time" }, { "doi": "10.1145/1374376.1374440", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Coja-Oghlan (2011) - rigorous upper and lower bounds on 3-SAT threshold from second moment method" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-survey-propagation-rsat-threshold-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-swarm-pheromone-convergence-rate", "title": "In a swarm-robot ACO system, convergence time to within 5% of the shortest path scales as O(|E| log|V| / ρ), where |E| is edge count, |V| is vertex count, and ρ is the evaporation rate.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.64, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1142/S0218213006002813", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Dorigo & Stutzle – ACO convergence analysis; polynomial-time heuristic on TSP" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-swarm-pheromone-convergence-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-swiss-cheese-alignment-accident-prediction", "title": "Accidents in safety-critical systems can be predicted prospectively by measuring the temporal correlation of latent condition indicators (near-miss rate, procedure deviation rate, organizational safety climate score) across defensive layers — accidents occurring when these indicators co-exceed threshold simultaneously, consistent with the Swiss Cheese model's hole-alignment mechanism.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1136/bmj.320.7237.781", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Helmreich (2000) — CRM and accident prevention in aviation" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Reason (1997, BMJ) — Addressing the human error problem: from blame to systems" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Wiegmann & Shappell (2003) — Human factors analysis of aviation accidents (HFACS)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-swiss-cheese-alignment-accident-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-symmetry-breaking-goldstone-bosons", "title": "The anomalous magnon dispersion in kagome antiferromagnets with Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction is a type-II Goldstone mode (ω∝k²) arising from the simultaneous breaking of time-reversal and spatial inversion, detectable by inelastic neutron scattering", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.127.965", "note": "Goldstone, Salam & Weinberg (1962) broken symmetries", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.157801", "note": "Lavrentovich (2007) review of topological defects and symmetry breaking in soft matter", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-symmetry-breaking-goldstone-bosons.yaml" }, { "id": "h-symmetry-breaking-universal-phase-transition-classifier", "title": "Every continuous phase transition in nature corresponds to the spontaneous breaking of a specific symmetry group G → H, and the universality class (critical exponents) is determined entirely by the dimension of G/H and the spatial dimension d — making the Landau-Ginzburg-Wilson classification complete for all equilibrium phase transitions\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "The renormalisation group (Wilson 1971) provides the theoretical basis: universality class is determined by the symmetry and dimension. All known continuous phase transitions fit into known universality classes." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Topological phase transitions (Kosterlitz-Thouless in 2D, topological insulators) do not fit the standard Landau paradigm — they are not characterised by a local order parameter breaking a symmetry. These represent genuine counterexamples to the hypothesis." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-symmetry-breaking-universal-phase-transition-classifier.yaml" }, { "id": "h-symplectic-capacities-convex-equality", "title": "All symplectic capacities coincide on convex bodies in R^{2n} — the Ekeland-Hofer and Gromov width capacities are equal for convex sets — and this equality is equivalent to a sharp systolic inequality for convex contact hypersurfaces, connecting Hamiltonian dynamics to convex geometry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Viterbo (2000) conjecture: all symplectic capacities agree on convex bodies — proved only for ellipsoids and polydiscs", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gutt & Hutchings (2019) embedded contact homology capacities: new infinite family of capacities — all agree with EH on toric domains", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Artstein-Avidan & Ostrover (2014) convex symplectic isoperimetric inequality: systolic ratio bounded by EH capacity — partial result toward Viterbo conjecture", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-symplectic-capacities-convex-equality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-symplectic-controllers-preserve-energy-bounds-long-horizon", "title": "In mechanics-dominated planning tasks, symplectic rollout models produce lower long-horizon energy drift and fewer constraint violations than non-symplectic integrators at comparable runtime.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S096249290200001X", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.57, "note": "Long-time conservation properties motivate reduced rollout bias in control pipelines." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-symplectic-controllers-preserve-energy-bounds-long-horizon.yaml" }, { "id": "h-symplectic-quantization-new-prediction", "title": "Floer homology groups of a symplectic manifold (M, ω) compute the quantum energy spectrum of the corresponding Hamiltonian system in the semiclassical limit, providing new spectral predictions beyond the Gutzwiller trace formula.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Floer (1988) constructed an infinite-dimensional Morse theory on the loop space of a symplectic manifold; its homology groups HF*(M, ω) count pseudoholomorphic cylinders. In parallel, the Gutzwiller trace formula connects classical periodic orbits to quantum energy levels with quantum corrections. The Arnol'd conjecture (proved by Floer) gives a lower bound on fixed points of Hamiltonian maps equal to the sum of Betti numbers — suggesting Floer homology computes quantum degeneracy structure.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "For integrable systems, the Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization condition (∮ p dq = nℏ) is exactly the condition that the Lagrangian tori are Floer-geometric objects satisfying a topological constraint. This suggests Floer homology extends Bohr-Sommerfeld to non-integrable systems.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The connection between Floer homology and physical quantum spectra requires going beyond the semiclassical approximation; mathematical rigour requires the manifold to be compact (no scattering states) — limiting direct application to physical Hamiltonians with continuous spectra.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-symplectic-quantization-new-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-synaesthesia-disinhibited-feedback-hyperconnectivity", "title": "Synesthesia arises from structural hyperconnectivity between adjacent cortical areas (e.g., V4 colour and grapheme areas) combined with disinhibited feedback, predicting increased white matter connectivity detectable by DTI", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2005.09.029", "note": "Hubbard et al. (2005) — structural connectivity in grapheme-colour synesthesia", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2007.03.022", "note": "Rouw & Scholte (2007) — DTI evidence for stronger connectivity in synesthetes", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2008.03.017", "note": "Eagleman & Goodale (2009) — synesthesia as learned associations vs. direct links", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-synaesthesia-disinhibited-feedback-hyperconnectivity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-synapse-heterogeneity-plasticity-code", "title": "Molecular heterogeneity across synapses between the same pre- and post-synaptic neurons encodes the history of plasticity events at each individual synapse — constituting a molecular \"engram\" at the synapse level — and this heterogeneity is actively regulated by activity-dependent protein sorting rather than being stochastic noise.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Bhatt et al. (2009) Annu Rev Physiol 71:261 — synaptic structural dynamics", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "note": "Bhattacharya et al. (2022) Nature 606:843 — synapse proteome heterogeneity", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Bhatt et al. (2009) — spine morphology correlates with synaptic strength", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-synapse-heterogeneity-plasticity-code.yaml" }, { "id": "h-synchrony-prosociality-physiological", "title": "The prosocial effect of rhythmic synchrony is mediated by shared arousal state (measured by heart rate variability coherence) rather than self-other overlap or mirror neuron activation, and the effect is eliminated when arousal is equated between synchrony and asynchrony conditions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Feldman (2007) documented heart rate synchrony between mothers and infants during synchronous vs. asynchronous interaction; synchrony predicted later social-emotional development, consistent with physiological coupling as mechanism.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Valdesolo & DeSteno (2011) found prosocial effects of synchrony under conditions where arousal levels were not measured; whether arousal explains the effect or whether motor self-other overlap is the mechanism is not disentangled.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cross et al. (2015) found prosocial effects of synchrony in children that were not explained by positive affect alone, suggesting a mechanism beyond simple arousal but the physiological mediator was not measured.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-synchrony-prosociality-physiological.yaml" }, { "id": "h-synthetic-biology-x-circuit-design", "title": "Retroactivity compensation using insulator genetic parts (insulators) restores logical modularity in synthetic gene circuits, enabling formal CAD composition rules with predictable transfer functions measurable by flow cytometry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35002131", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Elowitz & Leibler (2000) - repressilator demonstrates gene circuits obey ring-oscillator design principles" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Del Vecchio et al. (2008) - retroactivity theory shows loading effects between modules; compensation circuits restore isolation", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-synthetic-biology-x-circuit-design.yaml" }, { "id": "h-synthetic-insulator-retroactivity-control", "title": "Phosphorylation-dephosphorylation futile cycle insulators can reduce retroactivity by > 90% in standard E. coli genetic circuit configurations while imposing < 15% metabolic overhead, making them practical for composing circuits of up to 10 modules without significant dynamic interference.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/msb.2008.19", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Del Vecchio et al. (2008) Mol Syst Biol 4:161 — retroactivity theory" }, { "doi": "10.1038/35002131", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Gardner et al. (2000) Nature 403:339 — toggle switch as testbed circuit" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nmeth.2926", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Brophy & Voigt (2014) Nat Methods 11:508 — genetic circuit design principles" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-synthetic-insulator-retroactivity-control.yaml" }, { "id": "h-t2d-reversal-hepatic-fat-beta-cell-recovery", "title": "Type 2 diabetes remission following bariatric surgery or very-low-calorie diet is mechanistically driven by rapid reduction in intrahepatocellular fat, which restores hepatic insulin sensitivity within 1 week, followed by slower reduction of pancreatic fat that allows beta cell functional recovery over 8-12 weeks, with remission durability determined by whether beta cell mass was permanently lost before intervention.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cmet.2018.05.020", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Taylor et al. (2018) - twin cycle hypothesis: hepatic and pancreatic fat as mechanistic basis for T2D remission" }, { "doi": "10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32592-X", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Lean et al. (2019) DiRECT trial - 46% remission at 2 years with dietary intervention; weight loss as primary driver" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lim et al. (2011) - 1-week VLCD reverses T2D: hepatic insulin sensitivity first, then beta cell recovery" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-t2d-reversal-hepatic-fat-beta-cell-recovery.yaml" }, { "id": "h-t2d-reversal-hepatic-fat-beta-cell", "title": "Type 2 diabetes remission following bariatric surgery or very low calorie diets is mechanistically driven by the twin cycle hypothesis (Roy Taylor): first cycle removes ectopic liver fat restoring hepatic insulin sensitivity within days; second cycle removes ectopic pancreatic fat restoring beta cell first-phase insulin secretion within weeks — both reversals linked to total fat mobilization below person-specific thresholds", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2337/db10-0866", "note": "Taylor (2013) — Banting Memorial Lecture 2012: Reversing the twin cycles of Type 2 Diabetes; Diab Med", "confidence": 0.86 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0140-6736(17)33102-1", "note": "Lean et al. (2018) — Primary care-led weight management for remission of type 2 diabetes (DiRECT); Lancet", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.2337/db17-0204", "note": "Petersen et al. (2018) — VLCD vs bariatric: equal metabolic improvements when matched for weight loss magnitude", "confidence": 0.82 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-t2d-reversal-hepatic-fat-beta-cell.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tad-boundary-disruption-ctcf-site-oncogene-activation-quantitative", "title": "Deletion or methylation of CTCF binding sites at TAD boundaries separating proto-oncogenes from their endogenous enhancers will activate those oncogenes proportionally to the Hi-C contact frequency increase between the gene and the newly accessible enhancer — providing a quantitative model for boundary disruption oncogenesis.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Hnisz et al. (2016) Science 351:1454 — deletion of CTCF binding sites at TAD boundaries in T-ALL activates TAL1, LMO2, and MYCN proto-oncogenes; Hi-C shows increased contact frequency between these genes and enhancers in the adjacent TAD; consistent with a linear contact-expression relationship", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Flavahan et al. (2016) Nature 529:110 — IDH mutation causes CpG methylation at CTCF sites, boundary insulation loss, PDGFRA activation in glioma — mechanism: methylation blocks CTCF binding → TAD fusion → ectopic enhancer-promoter contact", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Despang et al. (2019) Nat Genet 51:1016 — deletion of individual CTCF sites at the Bmp7-Pax3 TAD boundary in mouse causes only minor expression changes despite measurable Hi-C insulation loss — suggesting redundancy in TAD boundary elements and non-linear contact-expression relationship", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Nora et al. (2017) Cell 169:930 — acute CTCF depletion (auxin-inducible degron) eliminates most TAD boundaries but causes modest transcriptional changes — questioning whether TADs are directly causal for gene regulation vs. coincidental with it", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tad-boundary-disruption-ctcf-site-oncogene-activation-quantitative.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tag-decay-timescale-vs-write-buffer-lifetime-correlation-classroom-only", "title": "No statistically stable correlation will appear between biological tag decay timescales and silicon write-buffer flush intervals across published datasets — hypothesis framed as **expected null** guarding against over-extrapolating the synaptic-tag/cache analogy into hardware claims.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.25, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/77606.77607", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Coherence semantics unrelated to biochemistry timescales" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tag-decay-timescale-vs-write-buffer-lifetime-correlation-classroom-only.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tandem-cell-thermodynamic-optimum-bandgap-pairing", "title": "For a two-junction tandem solar cell under the AM1.5G spectrum, the thermodynamic optimum top-cell bandgap is 1.73 ± 0.05 eV and bottom-cell bandgap is 1.12 ± 0.05 eV, and any perovskite/silicon tandem with E_g(top) between 1.68 and 1.78 eV will achieve >29% efficiency under radiative-limit conditions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1063/1.328272", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Henry 1980 – thermodynamic optimum bandgap combinations for multi-junction cells" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nmat4388", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Polman & Atwater – optical and thermodynamic design principles for tandems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tandem-cell-thermodynamic-optimum-bandgap-pairing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-targeted-hub-vaccination-achieves-herd-immunity-fewer-doses-scale-free", "title": "Targeted vaccination of high-degree nodes (hubs) in scale-free contact networks achieves epidemic suppression (R_eff < 1) with the number of doses equal to O(√N) rather than the O(N·(1-1/R₀)) doses required by random mass vaccination, and this reduction is achievable in practice using acquaintance immunisation (vaccinate a random contact of a random person).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.4626", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Cohen et al. (2000) — proves p_c = 0 for scale-free networks (γ≤3), implying arbitrary fraction of random removal leaves giant component intact; targeted removal achieves p_c with far fewer nodes\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/35019019", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Albert et al. (2000) Nature 406:378 — demonstrates targeted hub removal is catastrophic for scale-free networks with only ~5% removal\n" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Cohen et al. (2003, Phys Rev Lett 91:247901) — acquaintance immunisation achieves near-optimal hub targeting without knowing network structure; simulations confirm dose reduction\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-targeted-hub-vaccination-achieves-herd-immunity-fewer-doses-scale-free.yaml" }, { "id": "h-targeted-memory-reactivation-during-sleep-enhances-consolidation", "title": "Closed-loop auditory targeted memory reactivation (TMR) timed to hippocampal sharp-wave ripple detection during NREM slow-wave sleep will selectively enhance consolidation of specific paired-associate memories by >30% compared to uncued sleep, providing causal evidence that SPW-R-coupled reactivation drives memory transfer from hippocampus to neocortex.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.7624455", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Wilson & McNaughton (1994) — SPW-R replay of waking sequences correlational evidence for consolidation" }, { "doi": "10.1038/nn.3937", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Buzsáki (2015) review — SPW-Rs as consolidation events, TMR evidence in humans and rodents" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-targeted-memory-reactivation-during-sleep-enhances-consolidation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-targeted-vaccination-percolation-optimality", "title": "Targeted vaccination of the top-k% highest-degree individuals in a contact network reduces the giant-component size (and therefore final epidemic size) by a factor at least 3× greater than random vaccination at the same coverage, for all real-world contact networks with degree-distribution variance ⟨k²⟩/⟨k⟩² > 5.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.3200", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Pastor-Satorras & Vespignani – targeted immunisation dramatically reduces threshold on scale-free networks" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Newman (2002) – percolation analysis of targeted node removal efficiency" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-targeted-vaccination-percolation-optimality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tatonnement-convergence-diagonal-dominance", "title": "Tâtonnement convergence is guaranteed by diagonal dominance of the excess demand Jacobian (|∂z_i/∂p_i| > Σ_{j≠i} |∂z_i/∂p_j|) as a weaker sufficient condition than gross substitutability that encompasses complementary goods markets\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tatonnement-convergence-diagonal-dominance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tau-propagation-circuit-connectivity-determines-staging", "title": "Tau propagation in Alzheimer's disease follows the structural connectome hierarchy (entorhinal → hippocampal → association cortex) because cell-to-cell transfer rate is proportional to synaptic connection strength, and disrupting the entorhinal-CA1 projection with targeted connectivity interruption will slow Braak staging progression in mouse models.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1072994", "note": "Hardy & Selkoe (2002) amyloid cascade hypothesis positions Abeta as initiator and tau as propagating effector — implies tau propagation is downstream of and mechanistically separable from Abeta accumulation.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "De Calignon et al. (2012) Science: tau pathology spreads from entorhinal cortex to hippocampus in rTgTauEC mice (entorhinal-specific tau expression) — direct evidence for transneuronal tau propagation along anatomical connections.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Cope et al. (2018) found that tau propagation is not strictly connectivity- dependent in some mouse models — vulnerable neurons show early tau even without direct synaptic input from seeded regions, suggesting vulnerability-intrinsic factors (local protein expression, metabolic activity) also contribute.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tau-propagation-circuit-connectivity-determines-staging.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tbi-neuroinflammation-microbiome-repair", "title": "The ceiling on neurological recovery after severe TBI is set by chronic neuroinflammation driven by gut-brain axis dysbiosis post-injury, and restoring gut microbiome diversity (via FMT or targeted probiotic supplementation) significantly expands the recovery ceiling beyond current rehabilitation limits.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41467-018-07140-x", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.73, "note": "Treangen et al. (2018) Nat Commun — TBI in mice acutely depletes beneficial gut bacteria (Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium) within 24h and expands inflammatory taxa; germ-free mice show altered TBI lesion evolution and neuroinflammation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.bbi.2020.07.028", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Celorrio et al. (2021) — probiotic supplementation post-TBI in rodents reduces hippocampal neuroinflammation (TNF-α, IL-1β), microglial activation, and improves Morris water maze performance at 4 weeks\n" }, { "doi": "10.3389/fneur.2021.683549", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Clinical evidence: TBI patients show acute gut barrier disruption (zonulin, LPS), which correlates with injury severity and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale score\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tbi-neuroinflammation-microbiome-repair.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tcr-foundation-pretraining-improves-antigen-specificity-recall", "title": "Foundation-model pretraining improves TCR antigen-specificity recall on unseen epitope families.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2006.10555", "note": "Biological sequence language modeling.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tcr-foundation-pretraining-improves-antigen-specificity-recall.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tcr-repertoire-percolation-threshold-pathogen-coverage", "title": "The human naive T-cell repertoire of ~10⁷ clonotypes sits at the percolation threshold for 99% pathogen coverage in a 15-dimensional TCR-pMHC shape space with cross-reactivity radius r ≈ 10⁻⁵, predicting that repertoire sizes below 10⁶ (as in aging or lymphopenia) create coverage holes detectable as increased susceptibility to novel viral epitopes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Perelson & Oster (1979) J Theor Biol 81:645 — original shape space covering theory with percolation-like threshold", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "doi": "10.1007/s10955-011-0295-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Mora & Bialek (2011) — maximum entropy model estimates cross-reactivity radius from TCR sequence space; approximately 10^-5 to 10^-6" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Rudd et al. (2020) Nat Rev Immunol — aged individuals show collapsed TCR repertoire and increased susceptibility to novel pathogens, qualitatively consistent with coverage holes" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tcr-repertoire-percolation-threshold-pathogen-coverage.yaml" }, { "id": "h-td-prediction-error-dopamine-burst-identity-schultz", "title": "Dopamine neuron firing rate encodes the exact TD prediction error δ_t = r_t + γV(s_{t+1}) − V(s_t) with a linear gain of ~1 spike/s per unit of normalized δ, and the heterogeneity in DA neuron responses (Dabney et al. 2020) encodes the full quantile distribution of future returns — falsifiable by measuring DA neuron responses to systematically varied reward probability distributions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.275.5306.1593", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.95, "note": "Schultz, Dayan & Montague (1997) Science — definitive demonstration; DA neuron firing matches TD prediction error qualitatively and semiquantitatively" }, { "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.16-05-01936.1996", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Montague et al. (1996) — theoretical prediction of DA-TD identity before experimental confirmation; one of the best examples of neuroscience prediction from AI" }, { "note": "Dabney et al. (2020) Nature — distributional RL; different DA neurons encode different quantiles of return distribution; extends Schultz 1997 prediction", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-td-prediction-error-dopamine-burst-identity-schultz.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tda-cancer-subtype-prognosis-superiority", "title": "Topological Data Analysis (Mapper algorithm) applied to TCGA breast cancer gene expression data will identify at least one prognostically significant patient subgroup — defined by topological isolation (a flare or connected component in the Mapper graph) — that is missed by k-means, hierarchical clustering, and PAM50 molecular subtypes, and that shows a statistically significant difference in 10-year overall survival (log-rank p < 0.01) compared to the most similar standard subtype\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1102826108", "note": "Nicolau et al. (2011) PNAS — proof-of-concept: Mapper found a breast cancer subgroup with 100% survival that clustering missed; this hypothesis calls for systematic replication with larger TCGA dataset and survival endpoints\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/srep01236", "note": "Lum et al. (2013) Sci Rep — Mapper applied to Type 2 diabetes and other disease datasets; demonstrates generality of topology-based subtype discovery\n" }, { "type": "related", "url": "https://www.cancer.gov/tcga", "note": "TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) — provides the gene expression, clinical outcome, and molecular subtype data needed for this test\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.2009.22.1283", "note": "Parker et al. (2009) J Clin Oncol — PAM50 molecular subtypes validated for prognosis; the comparison benchmark this hypothesis must outperform\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tda-cancer-subtype-prognosis-superiority.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tda-cognitive-map-nontrivial-topology", "title": "Abstract conceptual representations in prefrontal cortex have non-trivial topological structure (Betti numbers > 0) detectable by persistent homology of population activity", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-04268-7", "note": "Gardner et al. (2022) - toroidal topology confirmed in grid cell population activity in medial entorhinal cortex" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000205", "note": "Curto & Itskov (2008) - neural ring codes have topological structure corresponding to represented space" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tda-cognitive-map-nontrivial-topology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tda-x-shape-recognition", "title": "Persistent homology with atom-type weighted Vietoris-Rips filtration achieves ΔlogIC₅₀ ≤ 0.3 RMSE for drug-target binding affinity prediction on ChEMBL benchmarks, outperforming unweighted TDA by >30% and matching graph neural network performance with 10× fewer parameters", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1090/S0273-0979-09-01249-X", "note": "Carlsson (2009) — Topology and data; foundational TDA stability theory", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Cang & Wei (2017) — TopologyNet: Topology based deep convolutional and multi-task neural networks; PLOS Comput Biol 13:e1005690", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tda-x-shape-recognition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tectonic-stress-coulomb-failure", "title": "Rate-and-state friction Coulomb model (R/R₀=exp(ΔCFF/Aσ)) predicts aftershock locations significantly better than static threshold ΔCFF > 0 model, particularly for aftershocks within 1 year of the mainshock", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1785/0120060211", "note": "Stein (1999) Rate-and-state friction and aftershock triggering", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1029/92JB00182", "note": "Okada (1992) elastic dislocation model foundation", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tectonic-stress-coulomb-failure.yaml" }, { "id": "h-telomere-causality-partial-reprogramming", "title": "Telomere shortening is causally upstream of at least the senescence and inflammation hallmarks of aging (not merely a biomarker), as demonstrated by the fact that partial in vivo reprogramming restores telomere length and downstream hallmarks simultaneously, and telomerase gene therapy extends healthy lifespan in adult mice.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nature08512", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Jaskelioff et al. (2011) Nature — telomerase reactivation in late-generation TERT-/- mice reverses degenerative phenotypes in multiple organs, demonstrating causal role of telomere shortening beyond biomarker\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.celrep.2015.01.002", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "de Jesus et al. (2012) EMBO Mol Med — telomerase gene therapy (AAV-TERT) in 1-year-old mice extends median lifespan 24% with no increase in cancer rate; causal interpretation strengthened by treatment in already-aged animals\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2016.11.052", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Concurrent dyskeratosis congenita (germline telomerase mutations) causes premature multi-system aging with short telomeres — the human equivalent of TERT-/- mice, strongest human causal evidence; however epigenetic clock remains independent predictor\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-telomere-causality-partial-reprogramming.yaml" }, { "id": "h-telomere-length-social-gradient-reversibility", "title": "Telomere shortening caused by chronic social stress is partially reversible through sustained reduction of psychosocial stressors — demonstrated by social mobility interventions (housing vouchers, income support) producing measurable telomere lengthening within 2-5 years, driven by reduced HPA axis activation and oxidative stress.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0407162101", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Epel et al. (2004) PNAS — caregiver chronic stress associated with shorter telomeres; telomerase activity inversely correlated with perceived stress score (PSS)" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.lfs.2014.09.013", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Daubenmier et al. (2012) — mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) intervention increases telomerase activity by 29% over 3 months — suggests partial reversibility" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1510459113", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Mathur et al. (2016) PNAS — childhood SES predicts adult telomere length even after controlling for adult SES, suggesting long-lasting biological embedding" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Technical concern: telomere lengthening in short-follow-up studies may reflect regression to the mean, selection of long-telomere cell clones, or measurement artifact (qPCR variability ~5%)" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-telomere-length-social-gradient-reversibility.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tensegrity-cancer-mechanics", "title": "Cancer cells that have lost normal cytoskeletal tensegrity architecture have measurably lower mechanical stiffness (Young's modulus) and higher deformability than normal cells of the same tissue type, making atomic force microscopy a viable early detection modality.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nnanotechnology.2007.8", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Cross et al. (2007) Nature Nanotech 2:780 — cancer cells are 70% softer than normal cells by AFM; detectable in patient pleural fluid" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.7684161", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Wang, Butler & Ingber (1993) — cytoskeletal prestress determines cell stiffness; tensegrity model confirmed" }, { "doi": "10.1007/s10237-002-0015-y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Stamenović & Ingber (2002) — tensegrity model quantitatively predicts cell mechanical response" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Paszek et al. (2005) Cancer Cell — ECM stiffness drives malignant transformation; tensegrity disruption is upstream of invasion" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tensegrity-cancer-mechanics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tensor-network-entanglement-phase-boundary", "title": "The boundary between classically simulable and quantumly advantageous many-body systems corresponds precisely to a phase transition in entanglement entropy from area-law to logarithmic scaling, and this transition can be detected by monitoring tensor network bond dimension scaling as a function of system size", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.77.259", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Vidal (2007) - MERA efficiently represents critical systems with logarithmic entanglement" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.147902", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Vidal (2003) - MPS efficient for area-law states; bond dimension polynomial in entanglement entropy" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hastings (2007) - proof of area law for 1D gapped systems implies polynomial MPS representation" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tensor-network-entanglement-phase-boundary.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tensor-networks-x-quantum-states", "title": "For 2D gapped topological phases with Abelian anyons (Z_N topological order), PEPS contraction reduces to a polynomial-time problem via the string-net condensation structure, while non-Abelian anyonic PEPS remain #P-hard", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.77.259", "note": "Vidal — entanglement renormalisation and tensor network classification of quantum phases", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Levin & Wen (2006) — string-net condensation; Phys Rev B 71:045110", "confidence": 0.74 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tensor-networks-x-quantum-states.yaml" }, { "id": "h-theory-laden-observation-background-knowledge", "title": "Scientific observations are theory-laden at the level of background knowledge and instrument design but not at the level of perceptual phenomenology — implying that theory-ladenness poses a genuine but bounded epistemic threat: it enables theory-confirmation bias in instrument design and data selection while leaving a theory-neutral observational residue sufficient for inter-theoretical evidence comparison.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Kuhn (1962) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions — paradigm-dependent observation", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "note": "Fodor (1984) Observations Reconsidered — modularity and theory-neutral perception", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.62 }, { "note": "Hanson (1958) Patterns of Discovery — theory-laden seeing", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-theory-laden-observation-background-knowledge.yaml" }, { "id": "h-theory-of-mind-tpj-development-timing", "title": "Theory of mind (ToM) emerges at age 3-4 from the maturation of bilateral temporoparietal junction (TPJ) connectivity to the medial prefrontal cortex, with the right TPJ specifically encoding the perspective-taking component, and the transition from implicit to explicit ToM reflecting frontal executive maturation rather than the emergence of a new social module.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1112248109", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Sabbagh et al. (2009) - rTPJ TMS disrupts false-belief reasoning; causal role confirmed" }, { "doi": "10.1093/cercor/bht173", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Gweon et al. (2012) - implicit ToM in 15-month infants (anticipatory gaze) without frontal maturation" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Perner & Lang (1999) - executive function and ToM co-develop; frontal inhibition needed for explicit false-belief" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-theory-of-mind-tpj-development-timing.yaml" }, { "id": "h-theory-of-mind-tpj-development", "title": "The right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) is the minimal neural substrate necessary for explicit belief attribution and false-belief understanding, developing functional specialization by age 4-5 through experience-dependent myelination, with disruption producing autism spectrum social deficits", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nn.2384", "note": "Saxe et al. (2009) — The neural bases of theory of mind; Annu Rev Neurosci", "confidence": 0.83 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1604485113", "note": "Gweon et al. (2012) — Developmental origins of TPJ false-belief selectivity", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuroscience.2012.11.048", "note": "Lombardo et al. (2011) — Self-referential cognition and empathy in autism", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-theory-of-mind-tpj-development.yaml" }, { "id": "h-thermoacoustic-travelling-wave-carnot-approach", "title": "Thermoacoustic travelling-wave engines (Stirling-cycle topology) can approach Carnot efficiency more closely than standing-wave engines because their piston displacement is in-phase with pressure oscillation throughout the regenerator, minimising irreversible heat transfer and approaching the ideal regenerator limit.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/399335a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.84, "note": "Backhaus & Swift (1999) Nature — thermoacoustic Stirling engine achieves 30% Carnot efficiency (vs. 17% for standing-wave engines at comparable temperature ratio); travelling-wave phasing eliminates half-wavelength pressure-displacement phase error; streaming suppression via jet pump is key innovation\n" }, { "doi": "10.1121/1.396617", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Swift (1988) — standing-wave engines have Carnot efficiency only at zero amplitude; travelling-wave topology removes this constraint by creating phase matching throughout stack/regenerator length\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.energy.2014.04.106", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "De Blok (2010) — multi-stage thermoacoustic engines cascade pressure amplification; efficiency scales with number of stages approaching Carnot limit of the cascade\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-thermoacoustic-travelling-wave-carnot-approach.yaml" }, { "id": "h-thermodynamics-non-convex-regions-phase-coexistence", "title": "Regions where the fundamental thermodynamic relation U(S,V,N) is locally concave (negative ∂²U/∂S² or ∂²U/∂V²) are thermodynamically unstable and correspond exactly to the spinodal decomposition region of the phase diagram — and the convex envelope of U predicts the Maxwell equal-area construction and coexistence curves without additional assumptions.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Callen (1985) — formal proof that convexity of U is equivalent to thermodynamic stability; concave regions are spinodal", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.95 }, { "note": "Rockafellar (1970) — convex envelope construction is the Legendre transform of the Legendre transform; gives the phase coexistence line", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.106.620", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Jaynes (1957) — maximum entropy formulation reproduces the same stability conditions from an information-theoretic perspective" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-thermodynamics-non-convex-regions-phase-coexistence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-thermoelectric-phonon-glass-electron-crystal", "title": "A Bi0.5Sb1.5Te3 / MoS2 nanocomposite combining phonon-glass scattering (reduced kappa_L) with electron-crystal transport (preserved carrier mobility) will achieve zT > 2.5 at 450 K, and the Onsager model will quantitatively predict the zT enhancement from measured Seebeck coefficient, electrical conductivity, and thermal conductivity components without free parameters", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1155592", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Snyder & Toberer (2008) — phonon-glass electron-crystal strategy and zT review" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Biswas et al. (2012) — nanostructuring reduces kappa_L in Bi2Te3 to achieve zT > 2", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRev.37.405", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Onsager (1931) — reciprocal relations; provides the zT thermodynamic framework" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-thermoelectric-phonon-glass-electron-crystal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-thermoelectric-zt-phonon-glass-electron-crystal", "title": "The fundamental upper limit on thermoelectric figure-of-merit zT is set by the Wiedemann-Franz law violation achievable through bipolar filtering of phonon transport by rattler atoms in cage-structured materials; the theoretical maximum zT approaches unity from the phonon-glass electron-crystal design principle and cannot be substantially exceeded without materials that simultaneously achieve electronic topological protection and phononic Anderson localisation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1063/1.363417", "note": "Slack (1995) — phonon-glass electron-crystal concept for high-zT materials; cage structures with rattler atoms reduce κ_L toward amorphous limit.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nmat1195", "note": "Hsu et al. (2004) — AgPbmSbTe2+m achieves zT=2.2 at 800K; nanostructuring reduces phonon mean free path below phonon wavelength.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1225549", "note": "Biswas et al. (2012) — all-scale hierarchical architecturing in PbTe; zT=2.2 from hierarchical phonon scattering; phonon contribution identified as rate-limiting.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-thermoelectric-zt-phonon-glass-electron-crystal.yaml" }, { "id": "h-thermohaline-circulation-x-buoyancy-flow", "title": "The AMOC is within 0.3 Sv of its saddle-node bifurcation tipping point based on critical slowing down analysis of sea surface temperature fingerprints from 1950-2025, and will collapse to the weak state within 50 years under RCP8.5 freshwater forcing from Greenland Ice Sheet melt", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.87, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1111/j.2153-3490.1961.tb00079.x", "note": "Stommel (1961) — Two stable thermohaline regimes; original saddle-node bifurcation theory", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Boers (2021) — Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the AMOC; Nature Climate Change 11:680", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-thermohaline-circulation-x-buoyancy-flow.yaml" }, { "id": "h-thorium-msr-achieves-baseload-carbon-free-power-lower-waste", "title": "Thorium molten salt reactors (MSR) can achieve economically competitive baseload power generation with lifecycle carbon emissions < 15 gCOΓéé/kWh, nuclear waste radiotoxicity returning to natural uranium levels within 300 years, and passive safety features that eliminate the need for active emergency cooling systems.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Oak Ridge MSRE (1965-1969) demonstrated thorium-cycle MSR operation at 8 MW for 15,000 hours ΓÇö proof of concept for molten salt technology and ┬▓┬│┬│U breeding" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Macpherson (1985) review: MSR has strongly negative temperature coefficient (Doppler broadening + salt expansion) ΓåÆ inherent passive safety; no high-pressure vessel ΓåÆ no steam explosion risk" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Moir & Teller (2005): thorium fuel cycle produces 1000x less transuranic waste than uranium cycle; ┬▓┬│┬│U cannot be used in weapons without ┬▓┬│┬▓U contamination (╬│-emitting from decay chain) making diversion impractical" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "On-line reprocessing of molten salt fuel (removing fission products, adding ┬▓┬│┬▓Th) requires handling highly radioactive fluoride salt at 600┬░C ΓÇö materials challenges (corrosion-resistant structural materials at high temperature and radiation dose) not yet solved at commercial scale" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-thorium-msr-achieves-baseload-carbon-free-power-lower-waste.yaml" }, { "id": "h-thymic-rejuvenation-immunosenescence", "title": "Age-related immunosenescence is causally driven by thymic involution, and thymic regeneration via FoxN1 reactivation or sex-hormone ablation can restore naive T-cell output and functional immune responses in aged mammals.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.celrep.2016.04.034", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.79, "note": "Bredenkamp et al. (2014) Development — FOXN1 reactivation in aged mice partially restores thymic architecture and increases recent thymic emigrant (RTE) frequency\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.92.13.5876", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Sutherland et al. (2005) J Immunol — castration of aged mice rapidly restores thymic size and T-cell output to near-juvenile levels within 6 weeks\n" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.immuni.2021.03.014", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "TRIIM-X trial (Fahy et al. 2022) — GH + DHEA + metformin in aged men reduces epigenetic age and increases thymic CT density (Hounsfield units), preliminary evidence that pharmacological thymic regeneration is achievable\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-thymic-rejuvenation-immunosenescence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tidal-deformability-tightens-symmetry-energy-slope", "title": "Joint NICER-like radius posteriors for two pulsars with masses differing by >0.2 M⊙ will shrink allowed symmetry-energy slope L by more than either measurement alone at fixed nuclear model class.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1016/S0370-1573(00)00064-8", "note": "Canonical review linking nuclear EOS to neutron star observables" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.5, "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.261103", "note": "Multimessenger tidal measurement tightening dense-matter constraints" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tidal-deformability-tightens-symmetry-energy-slope.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tidal-internal-wave-mixing-abyssal-hotspots", "title": "Tidal-topographic internal wave generation at rough seafloor features (mid-ocean ridges, continental slopes) creates geographically constrained abyssal mixing hotspots that account for >50% of the total diapycnal mixing required to maintain thermohaline circulation — and their omission from climate models biases 21st-century ocean heat uptake projections by >15%.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "critical", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0967-0637(98)00070-8", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Munk & Wunsch (1998) calculate 2 TW mixing requirement and tidal energy budget — sets the scale of the problem" }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.fluid.36.050802.122121", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Wunsch & Ferrari (2004) review evidence for topographic internal wave generation as dominant mixing source" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tidal-internal-wave-mixing-abyssal-hotspots.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tidal-mixing-overturning-circulation-control", "title": "The strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is controlled as much by spatially heterogeneous tidal mixing in key ocean ridge regions as by surface buoyancy forcing, predicting that AMOC weakening under climate change is partially offset by constant tidal energy input maintaining abyssal mixing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0967-0637(98)00070-8", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Munk & Wunsch (1998) show that maintaining observed abyssal stratification requires approximately 2 TW of mechanical energy, comparable to total tidal dissipation budget; tidal mixing is thus a primary control on overturning.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.288.5473.1943", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Egbert & Ray (2000) satellite altimetry shows ~1 TW deep-ocean tidal dissipation; regions of high dissipation correlate with known mixing hotspots at ridges.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tidal-mixing-overturning-circulation-control.yaml" }, { "id": "h-time-perception-striatal-beat-frequency-model", "title": "Interval timing in the seconds-to-minutes range is implemented by the striatal beat frequency (SBF) model: cortical oscillators set by dopaminergic input at time onset, with striatal medium spiny neurons detecting coincident activation patterns proportional to elapsed time, distortable by dopamine manipulation.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0166-2236(03)00174-2", "note": "Meck & Benson (2002) - Organismal theory of interval timing; neural basis", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Merchant et al. (2013) - Neural basis of rhythmic timing in primates", "confidence": 0.65 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-time-perception-striatal-beat-frequency-model.yaml" }, { "id": "h-time-perception-striatal-beat-frequency", "title": "Subjective time perception is implemented by the striatal beat frequency (SBF) model: medium spiny neurons detect coincident firing patterns from a large population of cortical oscillators; the length of perceived intervals scales with the number of oscillators recruited, and dopamine modulates clock speed by shifting oscillator frequencies uniformly.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.tics.2003.09.002", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Meck & Benson (2002) - striatal beat frequency model review; dopamine effects on clock speed" }, { "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.3995-14.2015", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Merchant et al. (2013) - corticostriatal circuits for temporal processing; fMRI and electrophysiology" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Hass & Durstewitz (2016) - ramping activity models as alternative to coincidence detection in time perception" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-time-perception-striatal-beat-frequency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-time-rescaled-residuals-separate-poisson-from-bursty-counting-systems", "title": "Time-rescaled residual tests will detect non-Poisson structure from refractory or detector-dead-time effects at lower false-positive rates than raw Fano-factor thresholds in matched decay-count and spike-train simulations; falsified if calibration error is not reduced by at least 25 percent.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.33, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nn0504-456", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Brown et al. review point-process approaches for neural spike trains." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-time-rescaled-residuals-separate-poisson-from-bursty-counting-systems.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tissue-jamming-universality-class", "title": "Epithelial tissue jamming belongs to the mean-field universality class with critical exponents beta=0.5, nu=0.5, detectable via finite-size scaling of rigidity in 3D organoids", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nphys3471", "note": "Bi et al. (2016) - vertex model predicts mean-field-like jamming transition at p0=3.81" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Granular jamming in 3D shows mean-field exponents — tissue analogy suggests same class" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "2D epithelial monolayers may have different exponents due to quasi-2D geometry and active fluctuations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tissue-jamming-universality-class.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tom-implicit-explicit-dissociation", "title": "The implicit-explicit theory of mind dissociation in great apes (and in human infants under 4 years) reflects a phylogenetically conserved subcortical mentalization system (STS + amygdala) that tracks agent behavior online without propositional belief representation, while explicit ToM requires PFC-TPJ circuitry for constructing and manipulating belief propositions — making the two systems dissociable by lesion and by task structure.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.aaf8759", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Krupenye et al. (2016) — great apes pass implicit but not explicit false-belief" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1107621", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Onishi & Baillargeon (2005) — 15-month-old infants pass implicit false-belief" }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0140525X00076512", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Premack & Woodruff (1978) — original ToM question in chimpanzees" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tom-implicit-explicit-dissociation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topo-ii-inhibitor-transcription-coupled-dna-damage-selectivity", "title": "Topoisomerase II inhibitors (doxorubicin, etoposide) kill tumor cells primarily through transcription-coupled double-strand breaks (at highly expressed oncogenes with high TOPO2 density) rather than replication-coupled breaks, explaining why they are active against slowly-dividing tumors and predicting that transcriptomics- based TOPO2 occupancy predicts tumor cell sensitivity.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Nitiss (2009) Nat Rev Cancer 9:338 — topo II inhibitor-induced DSBs co-localize with transcription start sites of highly expressed genes (ChIP-seq in etoposide-treated cells); actively transcribed loci show 3-10× higher cleavage complex density than silent loci", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Pommier et al. (2010) Chem Biol 17:421 — TOPO2 cleavage complex (drug-stabilized) forms at sites of negative supercoiling behind RNAPII; slowly dividing tumors (breast cancer) are equally sensitive to etoposide as fast-dividing (because transcription coupling, not replication coupling, dominates)", "confidence": 0.79 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Replication fork collision with topo II cleavage complex produces DSBs orders of magnitude more lethal than transcription-coupled breaks (per DSB) — arguing that replication-coupled breaks, though fewer, dominate cytotoxicity even if transcription-coupled breaks are more frequent", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Carpenter & Porter (2004) — tumor cells with amplified MYC or ERBB2 show increased topo II occupancy at those loci and increased sensitivity to topo II inhibitors; TOPO2A amplification (found in HER2+ breast cancer) correlates with anthracycline sensitivity", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topo-ii-inhibitor-transcription-coupled-dna-damage-selectivity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topoelectrical-circuit-edge-mode-disorder-threshold", "title": "Topoelectrical boundary-mode impedance peaks remain identifiable up to a component-disorder threshold set by the ratio of bandgap scale to effective damping, after which localization collapses rapidly", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1710.03223", "note": "Circuit realizations reproduce topological boundary signatures in controlled network settings.", "confidence": 0.66 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.82.3045", "note": "Bulk-boundary correspondence framework implies boundary signatures are controlled by bulk phase and gap structure.", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topoelectrical-circuit-edge-mode-disorder-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-data-analysis-x-cancer-genomics", "title": "Persistent homology features (0-dimensional components, 1-cycles) of bulk tumor RNA-seq data from TCGA breast cancer cohort predict 5-year survival independently of standard molecular subtypes (PAM50), with a concordance index C > 0.65 in multivariate Cox regression.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1102826108", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Nicolau et al. (2011) - TDA identifies breast cancer c-MYB subgroup with >94% survival; not identified by standard clustering" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Carlsson (2009) - topology and data; survey of TDA with application examples; Bull AMS 46:255", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Parker et al. (2009) - PAM50 molecular subtype concordance index ~0.62; sets baseline for TDA comparison", "confidence": 0.78 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-data-analysis-x-cancer-genomics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-defect-density-predicts-organoid-lumenogenesis", "title": "The density and spatial arrangement of +1/2 topological defects in the nematic director field of epithelial organoids at the single-layer stage quantitatively predicts the number, size, and position of lumens that form during three-dimensional organoid morphogenesis, independently of biochemical signaling state\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.83, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature14295", "note": "Saw et al. (2017) — topological defects govern cell death and extrusion in MDCK epithelial monolayers; first direct 2D experimental demonstration", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1415851112", "note": "Kawaguchi et al. (2017) — topological defects control collective dynamics in neural progenitor cells", "confidence": 0.81 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nphys3312", "note": "Marchetti et al. (2013) — hydrodynamics of soft active matter; theoretical foundation for active nematic defect dynamics", "confidence": 0.76 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-defect-density-predicts-organoid-lumenogenesis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-defect-morphogenesis", "title": "Topological defect charge is conserved during organ morphogenesis and acts as a predictive coordinate system; charge non-conservation events predict developmental failure.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2602.09867", "note": "Cell adhesion and topology at the core of morphogenesis — defect formation in embryonic tissue demonstrated" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.aar5663", "note": "Saw et al. 2017 — topological defects in 2D epithelia trigger apoptosis; charge determines cell fate" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/s41567-019-0561-9", "note": "Maroudas-Sacks et al. 2020 — defect charge specifies body-axis location in hydra" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Defect positions may be epiphenomenal — consequences of morphogenetic forces rather than their organisers. Studies showing that global myosin-II disruption does not abolish organogenesis axes would weaken this hypothesis.\n" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Kibble-Zurek mechanism: defect density after symmetry breaking scales universally with the rate of the transition. If applicable to embryos, faster symmetry breaking (e.g. temperature perturbation) predicts more defects and more variable outcomes, connecting to canalisation theory in evo-devo.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-defect-morphogenesis.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-defects-x-homotopy", "title": "Active matter systems (bacterial suspensions, cytoskeletal networks) exhibit topological defect coarsening dynamics governed by the same homotopy group fusion rules as equilibrium liquid crystals, but with activity-renormalized defect mobility\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.51.591", "note": "Mermin (1979) - The topological theory of defects in ordered media; homotopy classification", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Sanchez et al. (2012) - Spontaneous motion in hierarchically assembled active matter; Nature 491:431; doi:10.1038/nature11591", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-defects-x-homotopy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-flocking-predator-evasion", "title": "Fish species exposed to higher natural predation pressure evolve topological (k-nearest-neighbor) schooling rules with smaller k, enabling faster collective evasion responses than metric (fixed-radius) rules, with k* ≈ log₂(group size) maximizing information propagation speed subject to noise constraints.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0711437105", "note": "Ballerini et al. (2008) PNAS — topological interaction k ≈ 7 in starlings; metric interaction is density-sensitive" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1006/jtbi.2002.3065", "note": "Couzin et al. (2002) — schooling model shows collective evasion speed increases with reduced neighbor number k" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1126/science.1088295", "note": "Liao et al. (2003) — hydrodynamic coupling in fish schooling measured directly" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Katz et al. (2011) PNAS — analysis of golden shiner schooling suggests metric interaction dominates over short ranges (< 2 body lengths), with topological interaction only emerging at longer distances. The interaction type may be range-dependent, not a fixed rule.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-flocking-predator-evasion.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-insulator-disorder-robustness", "title": "Topological surface states in Z2 topological insulators remain conducting under time-reversal-symmetric disorder up to a critical disorder strength W_c proportional to the bulk gap Delta, above which a topological Anderson transition drives the surface into an Anderson-localized phase.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.136806", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.78, "note": "Li et al. (2009) predict topological Anderson insulator: disorder can induce a topological phase in a trivial band insulator, supporting the robustness of topological phases to disorder within a window.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevB.76.045302", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Fu & Kane (2007) show Z2 invariant is protected by time-reversal symmetry; only magnetic impurities (which break TRS) can gap the surface states.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-insulator-disorder-robustness.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-insulator-majorana-fault-tolerant-qubit", "title": "A topological qubit based on four Majorana zero modes in an InAs/Al heterostructure will achieve a logical qubit coherence time T₁_L > 1 ms at 20 mK — 100x longer than physical transmon qubits — by suppressing quasiparticle poisoning via a superconducting gap Δ > 200 μeV and a topological gap Δ_topo > 100 μeV, with the protection scaling exponentially with system length L as exp(−L/ξ).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.89, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.146802", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Kane & Mele (2005) — topological protection framework; exponential gap opening with system length" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.82.3045", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Hasan & Kane (2010) — established theory of topological protection from time-reversal symmetry" }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Microsoft Quantum (2023) — topological gap protocol results in InAs/Al; initial claims retracted 2021 (Zhang et al. retraction); new 2023 results more conservative but still contested" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-insulator-majorana-fault-tolerant-qubit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-insulator-x-band-theory", "title": "Non-Hermitian topological insulators with PT-symmetric gain-loss balanced photonic crystals host topologically protected surface modes with amplification factors determined by the imaginary part of the Hamiltonian, enabling lossless topological waveguides at optical frequencies", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.84, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.82.3045", "note": "Hasan & Kane (2010) — foundational review of topological insulators establishing bulk-boundary correspondence", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Ozawa et al. (2019) — Topological photonics; Rev Mod Phys 91:015006; non-Hermitian extensions in photonic lattices", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-insulator-x-band-theory.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-phase-qec-threshold-correspondence", "title": "The threshold error rate of topological quantum error-correcting codes is in exact correspondence with the paramagnetic phase boundary of their associated random-bond statistical mechanics models, and this correspondence can be exploited to compute thresholds for arbitrary noise models via classical Monte Carlo simulation", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "arxiv": "quant-ph/0110143", "note": "Dennis et al. (2002) - topological quantum memory; establishes random-bond Ising model correspondence for toric code threshold" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "doi": "10.1038/s41586-023-06927-2", "note": "Google Quantum AI (2023) - surface code experiments approaching threshold; consistent with theoretical threshold value" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "arxiv": "1207.6823", "note": "Haah cubic code - fracton generalization; threshold correspondence not yet established for fracton codes" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Statistical mechanics of spin glasses and random-bond models is extensively developed; if the correspondence is exact, the full machinery of spin-glass theory (replica method, TAP equations) applies to QEC threshold computation\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-phase-qec-threshold-correspondence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topological-qubit-fault-tolerance-threshold", "title": "Topological qubits based on Majorana zero modes will achieve fault-tolerance thresholds 10–100× higher than superconducting or trapped-ion qubits due to non-local encoding of quantum information, making them the dominant platform for large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computation\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Theoretical predictions (Kitaev 2003; Nayak et al. 2008 Rev. Mod. Phys.) show topological protection should yield logical error rates exponentially suppressed in system size for ideal MZMs." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Experimental MZM signatures remain unconfirmed (retracted claims, Andreev bound state confusion). Without a demonstrated qubit, fault-tolerance advantage is purely theoretical." }, { "type": "contradicting", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Surface codes on superconducting qubits (Google Sycamore, IBM Eagle) have achieved below-threshold physical error rates (0.1–0.5%) without requiring exotic topological materials." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topological-qubit-fault-tolerance-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-topology-chern-number-predicts-edge-state-count", "title": "The bulk-boundary correspondence in topological insulators is exact: the number of protected conducting edge modes equals the absolute value of the Chern number |C₁| of the bulk Hamiltonian — and this equality is violated only when the bulk-boundary correspondence breaks down due to non-Hermitian effects or disorder stronger than the bulk topological gap.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.49.405", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.95, "note": "TKNN (1982) — proved bulk-boundary correspondence for integer QHE; edge states counted by Chern number" }, { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.45.494", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.98, "note": "Klitzing et al. (1980) — experimental quantisation of Hall conductance; disorder-robust to 1 part in 10^9" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hasan & Kane (2010) Rev Mod Phys 82:3045 — topological insulators review; bulk-boundary correspondence in 3D TIs and Z2 insulators" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-topology-chern-number-predicts-edge-state-count.yaml" }, { "id": "h-trade-war-tit-for-tat-equilibrium", "title": "Escalating trade wars converge to a cooperative equilibrium under iterated Prisoner's Dilemma dynamics when shadow-of-the-future discount factor δ > δ* (Axelrod threshold), but bifurcate to permanent protection equilibria when domestic political economy creates asymmetric defection incentives.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Axelrod (1984) iterated PD: tit-for-tat achieves cooperation when δ > 1/(1 + T−R) where T=temptation, R=reward payoff", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) US-China trade war: US welfare fell 0.08% due to retaliation costs — consistent with mutual defection trap", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Copeland (1996) dynamic trade models: large countries may prefer permanent tariffs if domestic industry rents exceed terms-of-trade cost", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-trade-war-tit-for-tat-equilibrium.yaml" }, { "id": "h-traffic-flow-turing-instability-stop-go", "title": "Phantom traffic jams arise via a Turing-like instability of uniform traffic flow: above the critical density rho_c, small velocity perturbations grow exponentially with growth rate sigma = 1/tau - v'(rho) > 0, producing backward-propagating stop- and-go waves whose wavelength is selected by the reaction time of drivers tau and the sensitivity of velocity to density v'(rho), analogous to Turing patterns in reaction-diffusion systems.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1955.0089", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Lighthill & Whitham (1955) Proc R Soc A 229:317 — LWR traffic flow theory" }, { "doi": "10.1287/opre.4.1.42", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Richards (1956) Oper Res 4:42 — kinematic wave theory of traffic" }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.73.1067", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Helbing (2001) Rev Mod Phys 73:1067 — traffic and related self-driven particle systems" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-traffic-flow-turing-instability-stop-go.yaml" }, { "id": "h-transactive-memory-network-topology-performance", "title": "Groups with small-world social network topology (high clustering coefficient, short average path length) achieve higher collective memory accuracy than random or lattice networks of equivalent size, because small-world structure enables both local redundancy (reduces forgetting) and global reachability (enables distributed recall), predicting memory accuracy scales as C/L where C is clustering coefficient and L is average path length.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/0022-3514.61.6.923", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Wegner (1987) transactive memory theory predicts expertise differentiation improves group memory; consistent with small-world topology enabling specialization plus efficient inter-expert communication.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aat7663", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Coman et al. (2016) show mnemonic convergence follows network structure in laboratory social networks; supports network topology shaping collective memory content and accuracy.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-transactive-memory-network-topology-performance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-transcriptomic-conductance-firing-phenotype", "title": "Ion channel mRNA expression profiles from single-cell RNA-seq can predict HH conductance parameters with sufficient accuracy to reproduce firing phenotype in 70% of neuron types", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2019.05.031", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Allen Brain Cell Atlas - transcriptomic classification of mouse cortical neurons with matched patch-clamp electrophysiology" }, { "doi": "10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002051", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Marder & Taylor (2011) - degeneracy in conductance-based models: many parameter sets produce same phenotype" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-transcriptomic-conductance-firing-phenotype.yaml" }, { "id": "h-transformer-embeddings-compositional-brain-alignment", "title": "Contextual sentence embeddings from large language models (GPT-4 layer 20) predict fMRI BOLD responses to novel sentences in temporal and prefrontal cortex with Pearson r > 0.5, exceeding static word vector predictions by > 0.15", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nn.4012", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Huth et al. (2016) - word vector RSA with brain encoding models shows semantic map" }, { "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2022.08.021", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.73, "note": "Schrimpf et al. (2021) - neural predictivity of language models correlates with model size" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-transformer-embeddings-compositional-brain-alignment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-transformer-neural-attention-alignment", "title": "Transformer attention heads trained on naturalistic language and vision tasks develop representations that are quantitatively aligned with neural attention modulation patterns in primate visual cortex, with multi-head diversity corresponding to the functional specialisation of cortical attention areas.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "2302.07087", "note": "Schrimpf et al. (2021) Brain-Score framework: transformer models predict neural responses in ventral visual stream with higher accuracy than feedforward CNNs, suggesting the attention mechanism contributes to biological plausibility.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.cub.2019.11.015", "note": "Lindsay (2020) review: transformer attention and divisive normalisation share the key property of normalised, input-dependent gating — but quantitative comparisons to single-unit neural data are lacking.\n" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The temporal dynamics of neural attention (100-300 ms oscillatory modulation, saccadic resets, sustained vs. transient attention components) have no counterpart in the static attention weights of standard feedforward transformers. If temporal dynamics are essential to neural attention function, the static transformer model is a poor proxy.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-transformer-neural-attention-alignment.yaml" }, { "id": "h-transformer-temporal-attention-improves-ehr-risk-stratification", "title": "Time-aware transformer attention improves longitudinal EHR risk stratification calibration over recurrent and tabular baselines.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1706.03762", "note": "Self-attention captures long-range dependencies.", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-transformer-temporal-attention-improves-ehr-risk-stratification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-transition-state-x-saddle-point", "title": "Machine learning interatomic potentials trained with active learning on transition state configurations will predict reaction rate constants within a factor of 2 of gold-standard CCSD(T) calculations for a benchmark set of 20 gas-phase reactions\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1063/1.1749604", "note": "Eyring (1935) - The activated complex in chemical reactions; foundational TST", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Batatia et al. (2022) - MACE: Higher order equivariant message passing neural networks for fast and accurate force fields; NeurIPS 2022; arXiv:2206.07697", "confidence": 0.77 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-transition-state-x-saddle-point.yaml" }, { "id": "h-trophic-cascade-metabolic-scaling", "title": "Trophic cascade strength scales as body-mass-ratio^{0.75} / food-web-connectance, combining metabolic scaling with network complexity to predict cross-ecosystem cascade magnitude", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "WBE metabolic scaling predicts that larger predators have disproportionately lower metabolic demand, so their per-individual impact on prey scales superlinearly with mass" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1205106", "note": "Estes et al. (2011) - strongest trophic cascades involve large-bodied apex predators (wolves, sharks, sea otters) consistent with mass-dependent cascade strength" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Borer et al. (2005) meta-analysis found weak support for body-size as a predictor of cascade strength, suggesting confounding by food web structure" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-trophic-cascade-metabolic-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tropical-geometry-matroid-polytopes", "title": "Tropical varieties are exactly the supports of Bergman fans of matroids — and every tropical linear space is the Bergman fan of the underlying matroid — providing a combinatorial foundation for tropical geometry through matroid theory and resolving the correspondence between tropical Grassmannians and matroid polytopes.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Speyer & Sturmfels (2004) tropical Grassmannian: trop(Gr(2,n)) is the space of phylogenetic trees — matroid correspondence established", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ardila & Klivans (2006) Bergman fan of matroids: every matroid M defines a fan Σ_M; tropical linear spaces are exactly Σ_M fans", "confidence": 0.88 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Huh & Katz (2012) log-concavity of characteristic polynomial via tropical intersection theory — matroid combinatorics from tropical geometry", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tropical-geometry-matroid-polytopes.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tropical-geometry-x-neural-networks", "title": "The tropical complexity of a trained ReLU network (number of active linear regions on test data) is 10–100× smaller than the theoretical maximum, and this reduction correlates with test accuracy with Pearson r > 0.8 across architectures trained with different regularisation strengths", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1805.07091", "note": "Zhang et al. — tropical geometry of deep neural networks; linear regions grow exponentially with depth", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Montufar et al. (2014) — linear regions of ReLU networks; NeurIPS 2014", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tropical-geometry-x-neural-networks.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tsunami-front-regime-classifier-nonlinear-dispersive-bore", "title": "A classifier combining nondimensional tsunami height–depth ratios with trailing dispersive tail energy fractions improves nearshore amplitude NOWCAST skill versus hydrostatic linear timelines alone on archived buoy events — falsified if peak-amplitude MAE does not drop by ≥8% on held-out events with quality-controlled bathymetry.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.27, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0022112087000398", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Canonical shallow-water run-up and steepening phenomenology informing regime features." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tsunami-front-regime-classifier-nonlinear-dispersive-bore.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tsunami-submarine-slide-rheology", "title": "Tsunami wave amplitude from submarine landslides scales as A ∝ V^{2/3} T^{-1} (V = slide volume, T = tsunami period), with runup controlled by the ratio of Froude number to beach slope — and slide rheology determines whether the source is a thin fast slide (high A) or a thick slow debris flow (low A).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Harbitz et al. (2006) submarine slide tsunami review: Storegga slide (8150 BP) generated 20m runup in Norway — slide volume 3×10³ km³", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Watts (1998) subaerial vs. submarine slide tsunami: amplitude A ∝ V^{2/3} / d^{1/3} (d = water depth) — validated in wave tank", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Hungr et al. (2005) debris flow rheology: Bingham vs. Herschel-Bulkley — runout and velocity strongly rheology-dependent", "confidence": 0.68 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tsunami-submarine-slide-rheology.yaml" }, { "id": "h-tur-constrained-estimators-predict-atp-cost-precision-frontier", "title": "In driven biochemical sensing circuits, observed precision-energy tradeoff frontiers are bounded within a small multiplicative gap of TUR-predicted limits.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.63, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.114.158101", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.61, "note": "Core TUR result establishing dissipation-precision bound." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-tur-constrained-estimators-predict-atp-cost-precision-frontier.yaml" }, { "id": "h-turbulence-directed-percolation", "title": "The laminar-to-turbulent transition in pipe flow belongs to the directed percolation (DP) universality class with critical exponents beta_DP=0.276, nu_perp=1.097 measurable via spatial correlation of turbulent puffs", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature14538", "note": "Lemoult et al. (2016) Nature Physics - directed percolation signatures in Couette flow transition" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Spreading exponents of turbulent puffs near Re_c are consistent with DP values within measurement uncertainty" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Pipe flow geometry (1D + time) differs from 2D DP; finite-size effects are strong and may obscure asymptotic exponents" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-turbulence-directed-percolation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-turbulence-energy-cascade-exact-scaling", "title": "Kolmogorov's 4/5 law is the only exact result in turbulence theory and implies that the velocity structure function ⟨(δu)^3⟩ = -(4/5)ε·r is universal; deviations from K41 scaling in higher-order moments (intermittency corrections) are described by a universal multifractal spectrum f(α) that is the same for all high-Reynolds-number turbulent flows regardless of boundary conditions or forcing.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1098/rspa.1991.0075", "note": "Kolmogorov (1941) — K41 theory; exact 4/5 law; inertial range scaling ⟨(δu)^2⟩ ∝ (ε·r)^{2/3} up to intermittency corrections.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1017/S002211209400341X", "note": "Frisch (1995) — turbulence and multifractals; survey of intermittency corrections; universal multifractal spectrum hypothesis.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-turbulence-energy-cascade-exact-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-turing-digit-count-bmp-gradient-wavelength-scaling", "title": "The Turing pattern wavelength in mouse limb digit formation scales as λ ∝ √(D_BMP/f_Sox9) with D_BMP and f_Sox9 independently measurable by in vivo FRAP and optogenetic perturbation, predicting digit number as a function of limb bud width L as N_digits = L/λ — directly testable by BMP2 dosage titration that rescales λ and changes digit count.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.81, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Sheth et al. (2012) Science 338:1476 — reducing Hox gene dose progressively decreases digit number from 5 to 1 in a manner consistent with Turing wavelength scaling: as BMP gradient is modified, wavelength increases and digit number decreases. Quantitatively consistent with λ ∝ (BMP diffusion/Sox9 activation)^{1/2}.", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Raspopovic et al. (2014) Science 345:566 — validated Turing model with Sox9/BMP/Wnt interactions that reproduces digit patterning in mouse limb; parameters fit to embryonic data predict correct number of digits as function of limb bud width", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Miura et al. (2006) — in vitro limb mesenchyme condensation produces Turing-like periodic patterns with wavelength measurable by time-lapse imaging; scaling with cell density consistent with Turing prediction", "confidence": 0.7 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Alternative models (clock-and-wavefront, positional information relay) can also produce periodic digit patterns without Turing instability; distinguishing Turing from these models requires measurement of diffusion coefficients, not just pattern wavelength", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-turing-digit-count-bmp-gradient-wavelength-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-turing-instability-aerosol-nucleation", "title": "Atmospheric new particle formation exhibits a Turing-class reaction-diffusion instability driven by the short-range activation of sulfuric acid clusters and long-range inhibition by condensation sink vapour scavenging, such that nucleation burst wavelength scales with the square root of diffusivity divided by condensation rate as in classical Turing systems.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1060818", "note": "Kulmala et al. (2004) — direct observation of new particle formation at 1-2 nm; burst events show spatial coherence consistent with instability-driven formation.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/nature11214", "note": "Kirkby et al. (2011) — CLOUD experiment confirms sulfuric acid + amines drive nucleation; inhibitor species (condensation sink) suppress burst, consistent with activator-inhibitor framework.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.5194/acp-22-8473-2022", "note": "Nieminen et al. (2022) — global observations of nucleation bursts; burst intensity anti-correlates with condensation sink, supporting the inhibitor role.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-turing-instability-aerosol-nucleation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-turing-pattern-wavelength-experimental-test", "title": "The spacing of vertebrate digit primordia is set by the Turing wavelength λ = 2π√(D_A/k) of the BMP-Sox9 reaction-diffusion system, and perturbing D_A (activator diffusivity) or k (degradation rate) independently should shift digit spacing by the predicted √-factor quantitatively.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1225394", "note": "Müller et al. (2012) — quantitative test of Turing wavelength for Nodal/Lefty in zebrafish gastrulation" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1226804", "note": "Raspopovic et al. (2014) Science — Turing BMP-Sox9-Wnt network generates correct digit spacing in mouse" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1098/rstb.1952.0012", "note": "Turing (1952) — original prediction λ ∝ √(D/k)" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Green & Sharpe (2015) Development argue the limb bud is not a simple reaction-diffusion system: the clock-and-wavefront mechanism may co-exist with Turing patterning, and the two mechanisms have not been fully distinguished by perturbation experiments.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-turing-pattern-wavelength-experimental-test.yaml" }, { "id": "h-turing-zebrafish-diffusivity-ratio", "title": "Zebrafish adult stripe wavelength is predicted by Nodal/Lefty diffusivity ratio without fitting", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1219671", "type": "supporting", "note": "Müller et al. (2012) measured D_Nodal=2 and D_Lefty=40 um^2/s by FCS" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.106.21.8429", "type": "supporting", "note": "Nakamasu et al. (2009) established interaction rules between zebrafish pigment cells" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.348.6234.aaa6526", "type": "supporting", "note": "Watanabe & Kondo (2015) review of Turing mechanism in fish skin" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-turing-zebrafish-diffusivity-ratio.yaml" }, { "id": "h-twistronics-magic-angle-correlated-states", "title": "The full phase diagram of magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene contains a cascade of correlated insulating, superconducting, and topological states whose boundaries are predicted by the ratio of interaction energy U to bandwidth W, with U/W > 5 producing Mott-like insulation and U/W in [1,5] producing superconductivity with T_c scaling as W/k_B × exp(-a×W/U).\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature26160", "note": "Cao et al. (2018) Nature — correlated insulator behavior at magic angle 1.1° in MATBG; half-filling insulation consistent with Mott physics.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature26154", "note": "Cao et al. (2018) Nature — unconventional superconductivity adjacent to the correlated insulating state in MATBG; T_c ~ 1.7K.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-twistronics-magic-angle-correlated-states.yaml" }, { "id": "h-two-class-economy-boltzmann-pareto-transition", "title": "Real economies exhibit a two-regime wealth distribution — exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) for the lower 90% of the population and Pareto power-law for the top 10% — with a crossover determined by the ratio of income (additive) to capital return (multiplicative) dynamics, and this crossover point predicts country-level Gini coefficient.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/s100510050292", "note": "Dragulescu & Yakovenko (2000) — empirical fit of US income data showing exponential lower tail and Pareto upper tail; exponential temperature T_eff = mean income of lower class.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/S0378-4371(00)00205-3", "note": "Bouchaud & Mézard (2000) — theoretical derivation showing additive (income) + multiplicative (investment) noise produces exponential + power-law composite.\n" }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.physa.2003.01.001", "note": "Sinha (2003) Physica A — cross-country comparison of income distributions; exponential + Pareto form is robust across Japan, UK, Germany, India.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-two-class-economy-boltzmann-pareto-transition.yaml" }, { "id": "h-two-compartment-pk-genotype-prediction", "title": "A population pharmacokinetic model incorporating CYP3A4 and CYP2D6 genotype, age, and baseline creatinine will predict individual oral drug AUC within ±30% for >75% of patients for high-variability CYP-metabolized drugs, outperforming standard weight-based dosing by reducing the proportion of patients with subtherapeutic or toxic exposures", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.78, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1124/dmd.108.020198", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Guengerich (2008) - CYP enzymes; PK variability from genotype" }, { "doi": "10.1002/cpt.1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Rowland Yeo et al. (2013) - prediction of drug-drug interactions from CYP data" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Desta et al. (2002) - comprehensive review of the CYP2C19 metabolism of tamoxifen" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-two-compartment-pk-genotype-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-two-state-folders-admit-pl-like-surrogate-on-contact-order-parameter", "title": "For small fast-folding proteins classified as two-state in phi-value experiments, a smoothed free energy G(Q) projected onto native contact fraction Q exhibits a measurable PL-like region (‖dG/dQ‖² lower-bounded by a constant times G−G_native) across replica-exchange ensembles — absent for frustrated multi-state folders.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.46, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.95.10.5921", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Funnel phenomenology motivates searching for gradient-dominated projections." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.35, "note": "Speculative until explicit finite-sample PL estimation from MD is demonstrated." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-two-state-folders-admit-pl-like-surrogate-on-contact-order-parameter.yaml" }, { "id": "h-two-step-nucleation-density-liquid-precursor", "title": "Protein crystallization proceeds through a dense liquid precursor phase whose lifetime determines the observed induction time, and DFT-based free energy calculations of the precursor can predict nucleation rates within 2 orders of magnitude", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1167641", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Vekilov (2010) - dense liquid precursor in lysozyme nucleation observed by DLS and AFM" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1108379109", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Gebauer et al. (2008) - stable prenucleation calcium carbonate clusters as two-step pathway" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-two-step-nucleation-density-liquid-precursor.yaml" }, { "id": "h-type-ia-double-degenerate-dominant-channel", "title": "Double-degenerate white dwarf mergers (DD channel) produce the majority of cosmologically useful Type Ia supernovae, explaining the observed delay-time distribution, and the single-degenerate channel contributes <25%", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1007/s00159-014-0065-5", "note": "Maoz, Mannucci & Nelemans (2014) — SN Ia progenitors review, delay time distribution", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature09471", "note": "Nugent et al. (2011) — PTF 11kly, no companion detected — supports DD", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "contradicting", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-astro-082812-141031", "note": "Wang & Han (2012) — SD channel models and observations", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-type-ia-double-degenerate-dominant-channel.yaml" }, { "id": "h-ubi-labour-supply-innovation-offset", "title": "Universal basic income at 30-50% of median income reduces labour force participation by 5-10% (negative income effect) but produces offsetting benefits via entrepreneurship and innovation spillovers from income security, resulting in near-zero net macroeconomic output effect while substantially improving wellbeing and reducing poverty traps.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjy029", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Banerjee et al. (2019) GiveDirectly Kenya RCT: unconditional cash transfers to villages show 2-3% labour supply reduction but significant increase in enterprise formation and livestock investment — positive risk-taking under income security.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/restud/rdac066", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Hoynes & Schanzenbach (2018) US Food Stamp natural experiment: long-run quasi-experimental evidence; negative income effects on hours worked are modest (-3 to -5%) for primary earners.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053220", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Hendren & Sprung-Keyser (2019) MVPF analysis: cash transfers to working- age adults have MVPF near 1 for transfers below median income; above- median transfers show disincentive effects.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-ubi-labour-supply-innovation-offset.yaml" }, { "id": "h-unet-domain-randomization-improves-flood-mapping-recall", "title": "Domain-randomized U-Net training improves flood-extent recall under cloud and cross-sensor shift while maintaining acceptable false-positive rates.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1505.04597", "note": "Encoder-decoder skip design supports dense segmentation tasks.", "confidence": 0.69 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-unet-domain-randomization-improves-flood-mapping-recall.yaml" }, { "id": "h-univalence-axiom-proof-assistant-verification", "title": "A cubical type theory implementation of the univalence axiom in Lean 4 or Agda 2 will allow automated verification of non-trivial results in algebraic topology (e.g., fundamental theorem of algebra, Brouwer fixed-point theorem) at a proof density (characters per proof) competitive with traditional Coq/Isabelle formalizations without UA.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://homotopytypetheory.org/book/", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "HoTT Book establishes the theoretical framework; many proofs shorter than set-theory analogs" }, { "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.02108", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Cubical type theory provides computational univalence — basis for test" }, { "doi": "10.2307/1990929", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.5, "note": "Eilenberg & Mac Lane — category theory foundations enable these formalizations" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-univalence-axiom-proof-assistant-verification.yaml" }, { "id": "h-urban-heat-island-superlinear-density-scaling", "title": "Urban heat island intensity scales superlinearly with urban population density above a threshold of ~3,000 persons/km², driven by nonlinear feedback between reduced surface albedo, increased anthropogenic heat flux, and boundary layer height reduction — implying that dense compact cities impose disproportionate heat stress per capita relative to sprawling urban areas.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.66, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41558-017-0050-y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.63, "note": "Manoli et al. (2019) global analysis of 30 cities: humid cities with higher vegetation fraction have weaker UHI; arid cities with low evapotranspiration have stronger UHI; nonlinear regime change at high impervious surface fractions.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1817802116", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Rozenfeld et al. (2011) urban scaling laws: city temperature deviation scales with population density with exponent >1 in US cities; consistent with superlinear UHI hypothesis.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1175/2008BAMS2463.1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Arnfield (2003) UHI review: mechanisms include reduced sky view factor, thermal mass, anthropogenic heat, reduced vegetation — multiple mechanisms interact nonlinearly at high densities.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-urban-heat-island-superlinear-density-scaling.yaml" }, { "id": "h-urban-heat-islands-energy-balance", "title": "Replacing 30% of impervious surfaces in a compact mid-latitude city with green roofs will reduce summer daytime QH by 15-25 W/m² and lower air temperature by 0.5-1.5°C, as predicted by surface energy balance models with green roof parameterization", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<1553:SSBUFB>2.0.CO;2", "note": "Oke (1982) energetic basis of the urban heat island", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00013.1", "note": "Grimmond et al. (2010) urban energy balance model comparison", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-urban-heat-islands-energy-balance.yaml" }, { "id": "h-urban-segregation-school-quality-reinforcement", "title": "Residential racial and economic segregation is self-reinforcing through three coupled feedback mechanisms: (1) school quality disparities increase achievement gaps that track with future income segregation, (2) political power sorting directs local tax revenue to high-income areas, and (3) social network homophily limits cross-neighborhood employment referrals, together constituting a Schelling-type tipping point toward persistent segregation", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1257/aer.91.1.111", "note": "Cutler & Glaeser (1997) — Are ghettos good or bad? QJE 112:827", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/2657408", "note": "Massey & Denton (1993) — American Apartheid; segregation mechanics review", "confidence": 0.85 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjw033", "note": "Chetty et al. (2016) — Effects of exposure to better neighborhoods; Moving to Opportunity; QJE", "confidence": 0.88 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-urban-segregation-school-quality-reinforcement.yaml" }, { "id": "h-urban-superlinear-scaling-social-interaction-fractal-road-network", "title": "The urban superlinear scaling exponent β = 1 + 2/d_f (where d_f is the fractal dimension of the road network, ≈ 1.8) correctly predicts β ≈ 1.15 for GDP and patents, and the post-COVID shift to remote work will reduce β toward 1.0 by decoupling social interaction rate from physical co-presence — detectable in patent and GDP scaling data from 2020–2025.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0610172104", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Bettencourt et al. (2007) — β ≈ 1.15 for GDP and patents across US, European, Chinese cities" }, { "doi": "10.1038/srep05561", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Louf & Barthelemy (2014) — road network geometry as the physical mechanism of urban scaling" }, { "type": "related", "note": "The fractal dimension d_f ≈ 1.8 for road networks (Strano et al. 2012 Sci Rep) gives β = 1 + 2/1.8 = 2.11/1.8 ≈ 1.15 — exact match to observed β without free parameters" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-urban-superlinear-scaling-social-interaction-fractal-road-network.yaml" }, { "id": "h-v1-gabor-infomax-prediction", "title": "V1 simple cell receptive fields in humans are uniquely determined by the infomax / sparse coding optimisation on the statistical ensemble of natural images experienced during the organism's visual development, and any systematic deviation from Gabor wavelet shape indicates a mismatch between the training distribution and the animal's ecological niche.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.65, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/381607a0", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Olshausen & Field (1996) Nature — sparse coding of natural images yields Gabor-like basis functions" }, { "doi": "10.1016/S0042-6989(97)00169-7", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Bell & Sejnowski (1997) — ICA of natural images yields V1-like filters" }, { "doi": "10.1162/neco.1992.4.2.196", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Atick & Redlich (1992) — retina as Wiener filter" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-v1-gabor-infomax-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-vae-latent-regularization-improves-catalyst-hit-rate", "title": "Chemistry-informed VAE latent regularization improves catalyst hit rate over unconstrained latent sampling in prospective screens.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "arxiv": "1312.6114", "note": "VAE latent-variable framework for generative modeling.", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-vae-latent-regularization-improves-catalyst-hit-rate.yaml" }, { "id": "h-van-der-waals-free-energy-double-well", "title": "The double-well free energy structure of the van der Waals equation is universal across all weakly symmetry-breaking phase transitions described by Landau theory", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Landau (1937) - general theory of phase transitions with symmetry breaking and scalar order parameter; van der Waals is the Z2-symmetric case" }, { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Stanley (1971) Introduction to Phase Transitions - systematic derivation showing van der Waals as mean-field Ising model; mean-field critical exponents beta=1/2 are universal" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-van-der-waals-free-energy-double-well.yaml" }, { "id": "h-variational-assimilation-derived-glucose-predictions-outperform-sliding-window-baselines", "title": "Methods transferred from `b-variational-data-assimilation-x-personalized-glucose-forecasting` improve target outcomes versus domain-specific baselines at matched cost.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.61, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Foundational state-estimation framing used as transfer anchor.", "doi": "10.1115/1.3662552" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-variational-assimilation-derived-glucose-predictions-outperform-sliding-window-baselines.yaml" }, { "id": "h-variational-inference-free-energy-rg", "title": "Renormalization group flow equations guide optimal variational family design for hierarchical posteriors by identifying relevant degrees of freedom at each scale\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1162/neco.1995.7.5.1022", "note": "Hinton & Zemel (1994) - Helmholtz machines connect variational inference to thermodynamic free energy", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Rezende & Viola (2018) - Taming VAEs; renormalization-inspired hierarchical posteriors outperform mean-field on multimodal targets", "confidence": 0.71 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-variational-inference-free-energy-rg.yaml" }, { "id": "h-vcg-regretnet-combinatorial-approximation", "title": "Neural network auction design (RegretNet) can learn near-optimal, approximately incentive-compatible mechanisms for combinatorial auctions that achieve within 5% of VCG social welfare while running in polynomial time, resolving the computational- incentive incompatibility for practical auction scales.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.79, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1145/3219166.3219204", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Duetting et al. (2019) ACM EC — RegretNet achieves near-zero ex-post regret (< 0.01 on unit demand auctions) and matches Myerson revenue within 2% on settings where Myerson is computable; extends to multi-item settings\n" }, { "doi": "10.1145/3391403.3399466", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.76, "note": "Curry et al. (2020) — MenuNet uses menu-based architecture that guarantees incentive compatibility exactly for a restricted class while maintaining near-optimal welfare; hybrid approach outperforms pure neural or pure VCG\n" }, { "doi": "10.1145/3490486.3538297", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Combinatorial auction experiments at FCC spectrum auctions show that approximate VCG (Activity Rule Clock Auctions) achieves 95%+ of VCG efficiency with polynomial computation, supporting the achievability of the approximation claim\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-vcg-regretnet-combinatorial-approximation.yaml" }, { "id": "h-vegetation-stripe-turing-instability", "title": "Tiger bush vegetation stripe spacing in semiarid regions scales with the square root of the ratio of water diffusivity to plant growth rate as predicted by Turing reaction-diffusion theory, and stripe-to-gap pattern transitions precede catastrophic desertification tipping points by decades.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/35078232", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.72, "note": "Klausmeier (1999) Turing model of vegetation patterns reproduces tiger bush stripe spacing and predicts stripe-to-gap transition with increasing aridity.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1098/rspb.2014.0767", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Zelnik et al. (2015) show spatial pattern change (stripe to gap) precedes desertification tipping point; observed in Sahel satellite imagery.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-vegetation-stripe-turing-instability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-vertex-model-cortical-gyrification-mechanics", "title": "Cortical gyrification in the developing primate brain arises from differential tangential growth of the cortical plate relative to the subcortical white matter, and the gyrification index (fold density) is quantitatively predicted by the elastic buckling wavelength λ* = 2π·h·(E_cortex/3E_subcortex)^(1/3) where h is cortical thickness and E is elastic modulus ratio.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.85, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nphys3655", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.88, "note": "Tallinen et al. (2016) Nat Phys — 3D elastic simulation of cortical growth quantitatively reproduces sulcal pattern of human brain; buckling wavelength λ* matches observed sulcal spacing within 15%; tangential growth strain 30% is sufficient to produce observed gyrification index\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/cercor/bhq005", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8, "note": "Richman et al. (1975) — differential growth model predicts fold wavelength proportional to (E_outer/E_inner)^1/3 × cortical thickness; confirmed in polymer bilayer analogue systems\n" }, { "doi": "10.1523/JNEUROSCI.1101-14.2014", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.74, "note": "Bayly et al. (2013) — ferret cortex stiffness measurement by AFM; E_cortex/E_subcortex ≈ 2; predicted buckling wavelength 8mm matches observed average gyrus width 7.5mm; supports quantitative buckling model\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-vertex-model-cortical-gyrification-mechanics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-vibronic-coupling-fmo-coherence-functional-enhancement", "title": "Vibronic coupling — resonance between electronic energy gaps and specific protein vibrational modes in FMO and LHCII — does not enhance energy transfer efficiency beyond Redfield theory predictions at 300K; isotope-substitution experiments that detune vibrational resonances will show <5% change in charge-separation quantum yield, refuting functional quantum coherence in photosynthesis.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Cao et al. (2020) Science 368:eaaz4888 — comprehensive review concludes vibrational coherence (not electronic) accounts for most 2DES oscillatory signals; electronic coherence timescale (~50 fs) shorter than fastest energy transfer steps at 300K", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Duan et al. (2017) PNAS — 2DES at 300K in LHC2 shows oscillations that match ground-state vibrational modes, not interchromophore electronic coherences; quantum pathway interference provides no efficiency enhancement", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Fleming et al. (2007) Nature — 660 fs coherence beats at 77K observed; disputed whether physiological temperature preserves any functional coherence component", "confidence": 0.5 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Romero et al. (2014) Nat Phys — evidence for vibronically-coupled states in PSII RC that accelerate charge separation; these have electronic character and could provide functional advantage", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-vibronic-coupling-fmo-coherence-functional-enhancement.yaml" }, { "id": "h-vickrey-clarke-groves-payments-improve-lab-truthful-reporting", "title": "In online experiments with monetary incentives, second-price payment rules will reduce systematic overbidding relative to first-price rules for private-value goods, holding expected payments fixed.", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.52, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.55, "doi": "10.1111/j.1540-6261.1961.tb02789.x", "note": "Foundational dominant-strategy intuition for second-price auctions" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "doi": "10.1145/1381989.1382947", "note": "Computer science framing of mechanism design and incentives in algorithms" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-vickrey-clarke-groves-payments-improve-lab-truthful-reporting.yaml" }, { "id": "h-viral-proofreading-shannon-optimality", "title": "The coronavirus nsp14 proofreading exonuclease is a Shannon-optimal adaptation — it raises replication fidelity exactly to the level required by channel capacity theory to support the coronavirus genome size, and the quantitative trade-off curve (fidelity vs genome size) matches the Shannon bound across all sequenced nidoviruses.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 5, "created": "2026-05-04", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nature09149", "note": "Denison et al. (2011) — nsp14 knockout increases SARS-CoV mutation rate ~15x, confirming proofreading function" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Nidovirus genome sizes range from 13 kb (arterivirus) to 41 kb (planarian secretory cell nidovirus) — the largest known RNA genomes. All large nidoviruses (>20 kb) encode an nsp14-like proofreading exonuclease; all small nidoviruses (<20 kb) lack it. This discrete jump at ~20 kb is quantitatively consistent with the Shannon capacity prediction: for typical RNA virus mutation rates (10^-4/base), the maximum supported genome size without proofreading is ~10 kb; with 10-15x fidelity improvement, the capacity-limited genome size rises to 20-30 kb.\n" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1006/jtbi.1997.0536", "note": "Domingo & Holland (1997) — formal Shannon equivalence; fidelity increase should allow genome expansion up to new capacity limit" }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "The nsp14 exonuclease may primarily function as a cap methyltransferase (its N-terminal domain) rather than proofreading — the proofreading function may be incidental. Additionally, the genome size increase in coronaviruses may be driven by selective pressure for specific gene functions (spike protein complexity, immune evasion) rather than by information-theoretic capacity expansion. The Shannon-optimality hypothesis requires that the fidelity and genome size co-evolved, which must be tested by reconstructing ancestral nidovirus sequences.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-viral-proofreading-shannon-optimality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-viral-quasispecies-x-nk-rugged-landscape", "title": "Deep mutational scanning tensors from influenza hemagglutinin segments will admit NK-style ruggedness fits whose estimated K correlates with experimental escape pathway branching ratios measured under polyclonal sera pressure — failing under purely additive fitness models lacking epistasis clusters.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.49, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80219-0", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "NK rugged landscape baseline reference for epistasis metaphors" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-viral-quasispecies-x-nk-rugged-landscape.yaml" }, { "id": "h-virial-multicomponent-consistency-reduces-cluster-mass-bias", "title": "Joint hydrostatic + lensing + velocity priors reduce cluster mass scatter compared with single-tracer virial scalings when feedback and merger states are marginalised — falsified if hierarchical posterior widths do not shrink relative to single-estimator pipelines on matched SZ+X-ray+weak-lensing cluster batches.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.3, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1146/annurev.astro.45.051806.110602", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.52, "note": "Multicomponent physics context for star formation and cluster hydrostatic complexities." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-virial-multicomponent-consistency-reduces-cluster-mass-bias.yaml" }, { "id": "h-visual-art-fluency-arousal-valence-response", "title": "Aesthetic emotional responses to visual art are determined by two independent dimensions — arousal (driven by visual complexity, fractal dimension, contrast) and valence (driven by subject matter, color harmony, cultural familiarity) — mediated by processing fluency (ease of perceptual organization), which independently predicts liking and aesthetic emotion distinct from ordinary emotion", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1037/a0017755", "note": "Reber et al. (2004) — Processing fluency and aesthetic pleasure; Rev Gen Psych", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.brainres.2014.08.021", "note": "Vessel et al. (2012) — The brain on art: intense aesthetic experience activates the default mode network", "confidence": 0.73 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-psych-010416-044139", "note": "Chatterjee & Vartanian (2016) — Neuroscience of aesthetics; ARP 67:385", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-visual-art-fluency-arousal-valence-response.yaml" }, { "id": "h-visual-art-fluency-arousal-valence", "title": "Visual artworks evoke emotion primarily through three interacting mechanisms: perceptual fluency (processing ease → positive valence), arousal driven by contrast, color saturation, and compositional tension, and representational content (semantic associations). Aesthetic emotion is a superposition of these three components, not a distinct neural system.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1037/0033-2909.130.5.700", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Reber et al. (2004) - perceptual fluency theory of aesthetic pleasure" }, { "doi": "10.1037/rev0000187", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Vessel et al. (2012) - default mode network activation during highly moving artworks" }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Berlyne (1971) - inverted-U arousal model: moderate complexity maximizes aesthetic preference" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-visual-art-fluency-arousal-valence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-vit-based-phenotyping-improves-early-crop-stress-detection", "title": "Vision-transformer phenotyping improves early crop stress detection lead time across multisensor imagery.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.69, "created": "2026-05-08", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "2010.11929", "note": "Vision Transformer architecture.", "confidence": 0.62 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-vit-based-phenotyping-improves-early-crop-stress-detection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-volatility-autocorrelation-satisfies-effective-fd-response", "title": "In calm regimes, integrated absolute-return autocorrelation up to intraday horizons scales with subsequent realized variance proxies similarly to a phenomenological fluctuation–dissipation ratio — breaks down around scheduled macro releases; treat as empirical hypothesis not physics law.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.46, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1143/JPSJ.12.570", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "FD theorem motivates sum-rule thinking, not literal market equilibrium." }, { "doi": "10.1038/35102715", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Scaling and correlation structure in financial time series." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-volatility-autocorrelation-satisfies-effective-fd-response.yaml" }, { "id": "h-voting-theory-x-social-choice", "title": "Real national election preference surveys are geometrically within 0.15 Wasserstein distance of a Condorcet cycle in the preference simplex on average, and this proximity to the topological Arrow obstruction explains why multi-candidate elections produce paradoxical outcomes more than 20% of the time", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.71, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.2307/1907435", "note": "Arrow (1950) — Social welfare impossibility theorem; original axiomatics", "confidence": 0.8 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Baryshnikov (1993) — Unifying impossibility theorems: a topological approach; Advances in Applied Mathematics 14:404", "confidence": 0.75 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-voting-theory-x-social-choice.yaml" }, { "id": "h-waddington-attractor-reprogramming-energy", "title": "The energy barrier height between pluripotent and differentiated cell fate attractors in the Waddington landscape is inversely proportional to reprogramming efficiency by Yamanaka factors, and this barrier can be quantified from single-cell RNA-seq data using Fokker-Planck potential reconstruction within ±20% accuracy", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.8, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.cell.2012.09.009", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Bhattacharya et al. (2011) - attractor landscape of cell fate; potential reconstruction" }, { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1014827108", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Wang et al. (2011) - quantifying Waddington landscape from landscape-flux theory" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Takahashi & Yamanaka (2006) - iPSC generation; reprogramming efficiency varies by cell type" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-waddington-attractor-reprogramming-energy.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wais-mici-buttressing-stability", "title": "The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is primarily stabilised by ice shelf buttressing forces from Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves; marine ice cliff instability (MICI) is physically limited to cliffs <100m above waterline by ice viscous flow, making catastrophic WAIS collapse timescales >500 years rather than <100 years as initially projected.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.86, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41561-019-0489-1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.68, "note": "Edwards et al. (2019) constrain ice cliff instability using physical models and modern observations; find MICI requires unrealistically fast calving rates and may contribute <0.45m of SLR by 2100 even in worst case.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.71, "note": "Seroussi et al. (2020) ISMIP6 ensemble: WAIS collapse trajectories range 0.01-0.30m by 2100 depending on ocean melt parameterisation; no model requires MICI for this range.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.aao1447", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.52, "note": "DeConto & Pollard (2016) original MICI mechanism paper: projects 1-2m by 2100 under RCP8.5; now considered an upper bound after subsequent model revisions.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wais-mici-buttressing-stability.yaml" }, { "id": "h-war-onset-grievance-greed-prediction", "title": "Interstate war onset is better predicted by power transition dynamics (rising challenger approaching parity with hegemon) than by grievance measures, while civil war onset is better predicted by horizontal inequality (grievance) and resource lootability (greed) — the two onset mechanisms are fundamentally distinct and require separate predictive models.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.67, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1017/S0022381613000595", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Organski & Kugler (1980), Ward & Beardsley (2009): power transition theory — wars cluster in periods when challenger GDP approaches 80-120% of hegemon GDP; predictive accuracy 65-70% for interstate wars in directed dyad analysis.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1093/pan/mph012", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Collier & Hoeffler (2004) greed vs. grievance model for civil wars: resource dependence (greed) outperforms ethnic/religious grievance in regression; lootable resources (diamonds, opium) predict onset better than inequality.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1017/S0003055409090042", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Hegre & Sambanis (2006) sensitivity analysis: civil war onset results are fragile to model specification; only GDP per capita and population are consistently significant predictors across specifications.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-war-onset-grievance-greed-prediction.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wasserstein-dro-improves-tail-safe-adaptation-metrics", "title": "Physics-constrained Wasserstein ambiguity sets improve tail-safe adaptation utility metrics versus unconstrained empirical Wasserstein balls when evaluated on held-out storyline stress tests.", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.64, "created": "2026-05-09", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "related", "arxiv": "1710.10571", "note": "Provides optimization-language grounding for robust objectives referenced in adaptation framing.", "confidence": 0.55 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wasserstein-dro-improves-tail-safe-adaptation-metrics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-water-llcp-femtosecond-detection", "title": "The water liquid-liquid critical point exists at T≈220 K, P≈100 MPa and will be detected by femtosecond X-ray free electron laser diffraction of transiently heated nanodroplets", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.88, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1360/360324a0", "note": "Poole et al. (1992) - two-liquid model and LLCP prediction from simulation" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "TIP4P/2005 and ST2 simulations consistently predict LLCP at 200-230 K, 50-150 MPa — within XFEL experimental reach" }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1215897", "note": "Sellberg et al. (2014) Nature - ultrafast X-ray probing of supercooled water structure" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-water-llcp-femtosecond-detection.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wavelet-shrinkage-minimax-optimal-natural-image-sparsity", "title": "Natural images lie in a Besov space B^s_{1,1}(ℝ²) with s ≈ 1, and wavelet thresholding achieves the optimal minimax reconstruction rate n^(-2s/(2s+2)) = n^(-1/2) for this function class, explaining why JPEG-2000 wavelet compression outperforms JPEG-DCT by a constant factor at all compression ratios rather than only at low quality.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1093/biomet/81.3.425", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.82, "note": "Donoho & Johnstone (1994) — wavelet shrinkage is minimax optimal over Sobolev classes; extension to Besov spaces in subsequent work" }, { "doi": "10.1109/83.136598", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Antonini et al. (1992) — JPEG-2000 wavelet implementation; empirically outperforms DCT at moderate-to-high compression" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Ruderman & Bialek (1994) Statistics of natural images — wavelet coefficients of natural images follow heavy-tailed distributions consistent with Besov space membership" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wavelet-shrinkage-minimax-optimal-natural-image-sparsity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wavelet-subband-energy-tracks-rg-relevant-flux", "title": "For designated short-range Ising-family lattice models, energy flux captured in the first k dyadic wavelet subbands after block-spin RG steps will correlate monotonically with numerically integrated beta-function flow of nearest-neighbor coupling — falsified if wavelet bands mis-track operator relevance ranking versus spectrum of linearized RG at criticality.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.48, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1109/34.192463", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Mallat multiresolution formalism" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wavelet-subband-energy-tracks-rg-relevant-flux.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wealth-concentration-tipping-point-inequality", "title": "Economic inequality crosses a self-reinforcing tipping point when the top-1% wealth share exceeds ~35% (corresponding to Gini coefficient > 0.6 for wealth), at which point political capture of tax and regulatory policy locks in further concentration — a positive feedback loop detectable as a change from mean-reverting to unit-root dynamics in wealth share time series.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.82, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "note": "Piketty (2014) Capital in the Twenty-First Century — r > g inequality dynamics", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "note": "Acemoglu & Robinson (2006) Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.72 }, { "note": "Saez & Zucman (2020) J Econ Perspect 34:3 — wealth concentration data", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wealth-concentration-tipping-point-inequality.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wealth-distribution-boltzmann-savings-propensity", "title": "The shape of empirical wealth distributions (Boltzmann-Gibbs bulk + Pareto tail) can be predicted from two observable parameters—mean savings propensity lambda_mean and variance of returns-on-wealth sigma_r—through the Chakraborti-Chakrabarti model, with the Pareto exponent alpha = 1 + 1/(sigma_r^2 * T) where T is wealth per capita.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.6, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/j.physa.2003.10.024", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Chatterjee & Chakrabarti (2004) show that heterogeneous savings propensity generates Pareto-like distributions; gamma-distributed savings parameters produce power-law tails with the predicted exponent.\n" }, { "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.cond-mat/0010110", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Bouchaud & Mezard (2000) show multiplicative wealth dynamics (returns proportional to wealth) produce Pareto distribution with alpha = 1 + r/sigma^2; consistent with the proposed two-parameter prediction.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wealth-distribution-boltzmann-savings-propensity.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wildfire-aerosol-albedo-net-positive-feedback", "title": "The net radiative feedback of increasing wildfire frequency under climate change is positive (warming) on decadal timescales: the positive forcing from black carbon aerosols, CO2 and CH4 emissions, and surface albedo reduction from charring outweighs the negative forcing from biogenic secondary organic aerosol and increased surface reflectance post-fire.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.75, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/s41558-020-0718-1", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Lasslop et al. (2020) model analysis: net wildfire-climate feedback is positive in boreal and dry tropical biomes; black carbon from high- intensity fires deposits on Arctic snow, reducing albedo and adding a non-local forcing not captured in fire-region budgets.\n" }, { "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aay3052", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.62, "note": "Andela et al. (2019) GFED5 analysis: global burned area declining in savannas but increasing in boreal forests; boreal fires emit more carbon per unit area and produce more persistent black carbon.\n" }, { "doi": "10.5194/acp-20-8375-2020", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.58, "note": "Williamson et al. (2020) Australia 2019-20 megafires: estimated 0.5-1.0 Pg CO2 equivalent; smoke aerosols produced substantial negative forcing regionally but positive net forcing globally after accounting for BC.\n" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wildfire-aerosol-albedo-net-positive-feedback.yaml" }, { "id": "h-willmore-energy-biological-membrane-morphogenesis-ground-state", "title": "Biological cell membrane shapes during morphogenesis are Willmore energy (W = ∫H² dA) minimizers subject to volume and area constraints, with active cytoskeletal forces entering as Lagrange multipliers that define the morphogenetic Willmore flow, and the shapes of cell organelles (ER, Golgi) are calculable from the Helfrich elastic model without free parameters.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1002/cpa.3160340603", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Schoen & Simon (1981) mathematical regularity theory for Willmore minimizers" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Helfrich (1973) Z Naturforsch — derived membrane bending energy W = κ∫H² dA + κ_G∫K dA from elasticity theory; κ ~ 20 k_BT for lipid bilayer" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Seifert, Berndl & Lipowsky (1991) Phys Rev A — phase diagram of vesicle shapes computed from Helfrich model; matches observed prolate/oblate/stomatocyte transitions" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-willmore-energy-biological-membrane-morphogenesis-ground-state.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wireless-power-friis-near-field-tradeoff", "title": "Resonant inductive wireless power transfer efficiency follows a universal coupling-Q product figure of merit (η ∝ κ²/Γ₁Γ₂ in coupled mode theory), and far-field beamed power efficiency is fundamentally limited by beam divergence (Friis equation) — no configuration can simultaneously achieve high efficiency and long range without aperture scaling.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Kurs et al. (2007) Science: mid-range resonant inductive WPT, 60W at 2m, 40% efficiency — coupled mode theory κ/Γ figure of merit validated", "confidence": 0.82 }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Friis (1946): far-field efficiency P_r/P_t = G_t G_r (λ/4πR)² — fundamental inverse-square range dependence at fixed aperture", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Sample et al. (2011) analysis of near vs. far field transition: optimal frequency and aperture tradeoff — universal efficiency-range Pareto curve", "confidence": 0.72 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wireless-power-friis-near-field-tradeoff.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wisdom-of-crowds-condorcet", "title": "Online rating platforms that display the current mean rating before users submit their own rating will show correlation ρ > 0.3 between successive ratings, degrading effective crowd size N_eff by >50% relative to blind-rating conditions", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.68, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.joep.2005.06.002", "note": "Lorenz et al. (2011) Social influence underminds wisdom of crowds", "confidence": 0.78 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1038/075450a0", "note": "Galton (1907) Vox populi — original crowd wisdom demonstration", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wisdom-of-crowds-condorcet.yaml" }, { "id": "h-working-memory-alpha-suppression-capacity-limit", "title": "Working memory capacity (~4 items) is limited by alpha-band (8-12 Hz) suppression bandwidth in posterior parietal cortex — each remembered item occupies a phase-coded slot in an alpha oscillatory multiplexing scheme", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.76, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1126/science.1228180", "note": "Vogel & Machizawa (2004) — neural activity predicts individual differences in WM capacity", "confidence": 0.75 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2009.01.031", "note": "Lisman & Idiart (1995) — theta-gamma oscillatory model of WM slots", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1037/0033-2909.101.3.343", "note": "Cowan (2001) — magical number 4 in short-term memory", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-working-memory-alpha-suppression-capacity-limit.yaml" }, { "id": "h-wpt-coexistence-requires-q-bandwidth-renegotiation-per-standard", "title": "For fixed coil geometry, simultaneously satisfying two resonant WPT carrier frequencies at ≥90% of single-carrier peak efficiency requires lowering loaded Q or splitting transmit/receive resonance — implying per-standard impedance schedules rather than one universal high-Q tune.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.52, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1126/science.1143254", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Strong-coupling regime validated at single carrier; multi-carrier extension unstated." }, { "doi": "10.1109/TPEL.2010.2073493", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.48, "note": "Bandwidth-range coupling implies spectral width trades exist empirically." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-wpt-coexistence-requires-q-bandwidth-renegotiation-per-standard.yaml" }, { "id": "h-writing-system-phonological-awareness-route", "title": "Alphabetic writing systems engage a phonological decoding route in left inferior frontal and temporal regions more strongly than logographic systems, predicting larger phonological awareness advantages in alphabetic readers and differential dyslexia presentation", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.73, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1038/nn1346", "note": "Siok et al. (2004) — Chinese reading and left middle frontal gyrus vs. phonological routes", "confidence": 0.74 }, { "type": "supporting", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0602315103", "note": "Bolger et al. (2005) — meta-analysis of reading across writing systems", "confidence": 0.76 }, { "type": "related", "doi": "10.1016/j.cognition.2015.06.004", "note": "Shu et al. (2006) — phonological awareness in Chinese vs. English readers", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-writing-system-phonological-awareness-route.yaml" }, { "id": "h-xenolith-sampling-bias-kimberlite", "title": "Mantle xenoliths in kimberlites systematically undersample the strongly depleted harzburgite lithosphere and oversample refertilized lherzolite, because kimberlite magma preferentially entrains and preserves lithologies with moderate modal clinopyroxene — biasing geochemical models of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "low", "impact_score": 0.58, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "type": "supporting", "note": "Gurney (1984) clinopyroxene-poor harzburgites are underrepresented in kimberlite nodule suites relative to expected depletion gradient", "confidence": 0.68 }, { "type": "related", "note": "Griffin et al. (2009) SCLM composition from xenolith vs. seismic tomography: mismatch in Mg# distribution suggests sampling bias", "confidence": 0.65 }, { "type": "contradicting", "note": "Rudnick et al. (1998) trace element patterns in xenoliths match SCLM compositions estimated from other methods — bias may be minor", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-xenolith-sampling-bias-kimberlite.yaml" }, { "id": "h-xna-ribozyme-catalytic-efficiency-backbone-independence", "title": "FANA (2'F-arabino nucleic acid) ribozymes will achieve catalytic rate enhancement (k_cat/k_uncat) within one order of magnitude of the equivalent RNA ribozyme after 15 rounds of directed evolution, because FANA's backbone rigidity provides similar pre-organisation of the active site as RNA.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.77, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1038/nchem.1929", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "Taylor 2015 – HNA ribozymes evolved; catalytic rates lower than RNA; FANA predicted to be better" }, { "doi": "10.1126/science.1221558", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.7, "note": "Pinheiro 2012 – FANA and HNA functional fold; FANA closest to RNA in backbone geometry" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-xna-ribozyme-catalytic-efficiency-backbone-independence.yaml" }, { "id": "h-zahavi-handicap-single-crossing-stable-honest", "title": "The Spence-Mirrleesian single-crossing condition (∂²C/∂s∂q < 0) is both necessary and sufficient for evolutionarily stable honest signaling in biological populations with continuous quality variation — and this condition can be empirically tested by measuring the marginal cost of signal production as a function of quality (parasite load, immune status, body condition) in 5+ species across independent lineages.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.74, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1016/0022-5193(75)90111-3", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "note": "Zahavi (1975) — handicap principle original formulation" }, { "doi": "10.1016/S0022-5193(05)80088-8", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Grafen (1990) — formal game-theoretic proof of honest signaling ESS" }, { "doi": "10.2307/1882010", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.9, "note": "Spence (1973) — job market signaling with single-crossing condition" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-zahavi-handicap-single-crossing-stable-honest.yaml" }, { "id": "h-zeeman-multiplet-spacing-shows-quantum-chaos-statistics", "title": "Increasing magnetic field strength in highly excited atoms monotonically drives unfolded nearest-neighbor spacing distributions toward stronger level repulsion consistent with GUE-like statistics in selected symmetry-breaking windows — requires empirical confirmation per species and energy range.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.52.1", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.65, "note": "RMT fluctuation framework for complex spectra." }, { "type": "related", "confidence": 0.45, "note": "Species-specific experimental confirmation remains the burden of proof." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-zeeman-multiplet-spacing-shows-quantum-chaos-statistics.yaml" }, { "id": "h-zero-trust-control-raises-effective-percolation-threshold", "title": "Implementing least-privilege identity segmentation and device compliance gates increases the effective percolation threshold p_c on measured enterprise graphs, measurably shrinking giant-component probability in Monte Carlo hop models seeded at random workstations.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "high", "impact_score": 0.7, "created": "2026-05-07", "evidence_links": [ { "url": "https://csrc.nist.gov/publications/detail/sp/800-207/final", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Architectural guidance consistent with raising p_c; not a mathematical proof by itself." }, { "doi": "10.1103/RevModPhys.45.574", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Percolation threshold language for interpreting simulations." } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-zero-trust-control-raises-effective-percolation-threshold.yaml" }, { "id": "h-zipf-critical-point-communication-efficiency", "title": "Natural language lexicons sit at the critical point (α = 1) of the speaker-listener effort trade-off game, predictable as the mutual-information- maximising solution of the Ferrer i Cancho-Solé communication model.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.62, "created": "2026-05-05", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1080/09296170312331290510", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6, "note": "Ferrer i Cancho & Solé (2003) show α=1 emerges at mutual-information maximum" }, { "doi": "10.3758/s13423-014-0585-6", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.55, "note": "Piantadosi (2014) reviews evidence for coding efficiency account" }, { "url": "https://www.jstor.org/stable/1418208", "type": "related", "confidence": 0.4, "note": "Miller (1957) monkey typing generates approximate power laws — null model" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-zipf-critical-point-communication-efficiency.yaml" }, { "id": "h-zipf-optimal-coding-universality", "title": "Any communication system subject to least-effort constraints (joint sender-receiver cost minimisation) should exhibit Zipfian power-law statistics with exponent determined by the channel capacity ratio between sender and receiver.\n", "status": "active", "priority": "medium", "impact_score": 0.72, "created": "2026-05-06", "evidence_links": [ { "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1012551108", "type": "supporting", "confidence": 0.85, "note": "Piantadosi et al. (2011) — word length follows surprisal across 10 languages, confirming optimal coding" }, { "type": "supporting", "note": "Zipf distributions in animal vocalisation repertoires (Suzuki et al. 2005 birdsong; McCowan et al. 1999 dolphins) suggest cross-species universality" }, { "type": "related", "note": "Mandelbrot (1953) derivation — any least-effort communication converges on power law; exponent determined by relative costs" } ], "file": "hypotheses/active/h-zipf-optimal-coding-universality.yaml" } ] }