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Spatial Economics

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Open Unknowns

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Cross-Domain Bridges

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Active Hypotheses

Open Unknowns (1)

Unknown Does high Moran's I spatial autocorrelation in regional income cause income divergence (reinforcing inequality via agglomeration), or does divergence cause high autocorrelation (sorting of high-productivity workers into high-income regions) — and can the Krugman bifurcation point be identified empirically from the trajectory of spatial autocorrelation statistics? u-spatial-autocorrelation-economic-convergence-causality

Active Hypotheses

Hypothesis The Krugman core-periphery bifurcation produces a detectable early-warning signature in the time series of Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient — specifically, critical slowing down (increasing lag-1 autocorrelation of Moran's I) and increasing variance of Moran's I — preceding regional income divergence events by 3-5 years. medium

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Generated 2026-05-10 · USDR Dashboard